We have some time here to talk about the Oilers current roster and how best to deploy them in the days to come. Since he arrived in the NHL for good in the fall of 2015, Darnell Nurse has played significant time versus elites. Please read this.
All numbers via PuckIQ, my sincere thanks to those brilliant individuals. Kris Knoblauch faded his minutes against the league’s best in 2024-25, giving him a different look than we’d seen in the past. His 356 minutes versus elites (all numbers five-on-five) were the lowest total minutes and percentage (25 percent) since 2016-17:
As you can see, he’s back over 30 percent this season, and doing well enough in Dangerous Fenwick (similar to expected goals) while not reaching the heights of one year ago. The 55 percent DFF Pct in 2024-25 was his career best (55.8):
His rel number in 2024-25 (+1.3 pct) indicated solid usage, and his number this year (0. he is exactly average versus elites compared to his fellow defenseman) is acceptable if not ideal. Looking at the entire picture for 2025-26, we see Nurse is around 50 percent overall (including mid- and low-level competition) when viewing Dangerous Fenwick. Where Nurse’s player card struggled is in goal share versus middle and soft competition:
We can certainly blame NUrse, my goodness you’d like more than a 42 percent goal share versus the soft parade. After all, Mattias Ekholm’s player card is pristine:
Honestly, this is gorgeous. You have three LH defensemen with this kind of player card and you’re going to win Stanley if everyone stays healthy. Now, Nurse wasn’t playing with Evan Bouchard and had more time with the Glimmer Twins, and that’s a consideration when discussing Nurse.
Let’s look at Brett Kulak, who you may recall struggled before being dealt earlier this season. What did his numbers look like?
Okay, that’s not good, although he did manage a 50 percent goal share versus the soft opposition. We can agree this is not a player card that screams replacing Nurse against elites or mid-level competition, and Dangerous Fenwick buries Kulak in all three categories. Jake Walman?
Huh. Walman doesn’t perform well against the elites or middle according to Dangerous Fenwick, although he’s been on the ice for 67 percent of the goals against mid-level opposition. I think we can give luck some credit there, your mileage may vary. We can agree this doesn’t approach the Nurse player card. Finally, the new hire, Spencer Stastney:
Small sample warning, although it’s almost 400 total minutes. Stastney doesn’t play much against elites, and wouldn’t be playing with the top linemates available. Still, a 16.7 goal share based on 47 percent DFF percentage would seem to be in line for some positive regressions. He’s better against mid and gritensity, but I’d suggest Nurse is the better option for second pair, left hand side.
I’m not sure Nurse-Walman is the best second pairing on the Oilers, although the duo is 8-3 goals in 110 minutes this season five-on-five. The DFF percentage is a poor 45 percent, the Oilers are rocking a 109.4 PDO in those minutes. My question for you today: If not Nurse on the second pairing, who would you like to see?
On the Lowdown today, Jason Gregor will pop in and we’ll talk Oilers, Olympics, Super Bowl and more. Noon to 2pm Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Oilers face the trade deadline with a limited budget. What are their options?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7031040/2026/02/09/oilers-nhl-trade-deadline-bowman-condors/
I agree. And would add, emphatically: Stay. The. Course.
No more churn (as much as Oilerville LOVES the churn).
ps. Another interesting piece on The Athletic, about TBL over past 10 years. My conclusion: patient management and coaching is rewarded.
Q: Would a coach (or goalie) last as long as Cooper and Vasilevsky have lasted without a Cup in a Cup-expectant Canadian market (ie. Edmonton or Montreal)?
Not if they were last in giving up high danger chances and leaking goals at this pace. Patience is needed at times, but so is change. In this case change infers coaching change or flipping the roster.
It would be much more productive to say that the change can come through adaptation, reflection, feedback, innovation, application of analytics.
Oilers have issues, but simply swapping out parts doesn’t seem to be working. There must be problem identified, possible solution thesis, road to get there. We all want the same thing.
Thanks
So Coffey played Nurse less against elites and he posted better numbers. Seems to fit with the general opinion that I hear on the radio that Coffey made Nurse better. If it was just playing him less against elites, and not hall of fame intangibles, can’t Stuart do that too?
Obviously not.
A thought popped into my head, you all tell me if it’s off, but when I mentioned Blake Coleman, I’m like maybe the reason Canada is falling back against other countries is that at one time we had tough players that would do anything to win, and were still quality hockey players
Maybe that’s not the case anymore. The US is a rougher group than us now. At least at the NHL level. Most Canadian players that want to play the dark arts are old, or mostly puck optional
Canada is developing too many middle of the pack types – not killer offense and not beasts. When I look at the US Olympic roster, I think we will have a very hard time beating them, even if on paper we look better
Our D don’t have the range that theirs does. They have a big or at least heavy puck moving D. Forwards that don’t have the same pedigree but are a driven group that can do damage at any time. Maybe it’s like NHL teams that tool to beat their biggest competitor
Spit. I hope that they kick toolie and wipe the ice with them all
I have to say you seem to be obsessed with big D.
Parayko 6’6″ 228
Sanheim – 6’4″ 222
Harley 6’3″ 211
Doughty 6’1″ 210
Makar, Toews and Theodore add the “range” you’re seeking and the first pair is the best in the world.
Feel better now?
There is no saviour coming in to help Nurse and save the Oilers defense.
Just like with Nuge moving to 3c, the obvious move is to separate Eckholm – Bouchard in the name of roster balance.
Bouchard can thrive without Eckholm. Eckholm shouldn’t need Bouchard.
Nurse-Bouchard
Eckholm-Walman
The rest
Are they going to waive Mangiapane to activate Henrique?
The trade talk of Foegele for Mangiapane makes zero sense to me, Foegele would be the 4th line left wing, heavily pass on that overpaid scenario.
Two years ago with us, Foegele scored 18 EV goals. Last year with the Kings, he scored 22 EV goals. One bad half-year and he gets written off?
I’d take that trade in a heartbeat.
He has all of the physical tools, but Bruce Curlock commented when he was an Oiler about issues with his play. He isn’t the greatest at positioning, and on a defense oriented team the coach is HS’d him. I thought he wasn’t great with the puck in the O zone
This season he’s 42.86 GF% which is 15th for forwards. 9th in F TOI at 539:43 43GP, 5G 2A at 5v5. Mangiapane 9th in F TOI at 580:43 49 GP, 5G 5A at 5v5, has a worse goal share and is 16th for Oiler F there
But since Nov 26 at 5v5 Foegele is 32.84GF%, Mangi 42.11 GF%
I don’t think Foegele helps the cause
Magpie’s doin absolutely nuthin, Foegs has at least had success here in the past, and (I think?) both salary and term are a wash.
I take Foegs in a heartbeat. Tho he may have to walk back comments about ‘hating those guys too.’
of course my preference is to simply unload Mangiopane.
If he rejoins the Oilers, Foegele’s “hate” will disappear when he once again discovers the joys of playing beyond the first round.
Foegele is a bigger cap hit, with just as much whine to his game.
Your mileage may vary, but Mangi has been more productive being treated like a leper than Foegele has losing his top 6 spot and being scratched
In isolation, 100%, I take Foegele over Mang but the Oilers need $3.6MM of cap space from Mang, not a player at the same cap hit having essentially as poor a season.
Absolutely agree, he does not provide the help needed.
Say Blake Coleman and I’m listening
In isolation, the Oilers make that trade all day long but the added context is that the Oilers don’t need a negative cap contract back – they need the $3.6MM of cap space.
To the initial questions on if they waive Mang to activate Henrique, my thought is, yes, maybe. Someone needs to go off the current roster, being in Mang or Janmark or I guess Savoie but I don’t see either of the later two happening.
If it was possible to wash our hands of Mangiapane’s 3.6 million cap hit, then wouldn’t Bowman would have sent him out already?
Capwages has the Oilers with almost 2.9 million in cap space for a 21 man roster. Mangiapane for Foegele nets an additional 100K in capspace; they’d be about 23K short of being able to fit Henrique.
Would still need to make another move.
I don’t disagree but, given Foegele’s level of play this season, I don’t think the trade makes sense – the end result, as you point out, is the Oilers would still need to go down to a 20 player roster (or swap a Janmark for a lower cap hit player which they don’t want to do) and STILL don’t have room to materially upgrade.
I hate it but attaching a mid-round pick to get rid of Mang, if that is out there, and creating the cap space, that seems more prudent, I mean if the intention if to improve for this season.
I’m not disagreeing with you, but Friedman mentioned the other night (he was speaking generally, not necessarily about Mangiapane specifically) that carrying the players salaries for 3 weeks over the Olympic break was a “thing”, and was perhaps factoring into player movement prior to the Olympic break
That said if Mangiapane was waived – prior to or even after – the Olympic break, he’d probably clear
Divesting his full $3.6 is going to be difficult, I’m in agreement there
I guess what I’m saying is Stan may have a team that told him “we’ll pick him up if you put him on waivers” or “future considerations”, “but we’ll talk again after the Olympics”
I’m open to Janmark being deleted from the roster but definitely Mangiapane first.
Oilers need the cap, using that space on Foegele is just creating the exact same problem. Foegele will be paid a bit more to play a 4th line role/healthy scratch.
Bowman can find another Podkolzin that makes all players mentioned obsolete.
This is what I’ve said.
I wrote Foegele off 3 years ago lol.
foegele would be on the 3rd line.
Foegele-Nuge-Savoie. i can work with that all day long.
Are you saying Roslovic is on McDavid wing? Foegele is not bumping anyone in the top 9 down to the 4th line currently.
Olympic talk:
Too bad one of the woods couldn’t bump binnington out. That was a questionable decision.
Play your best hand – it’s not like those goalies are just on a heater. Binnington is ice cold. Frozen. He’s Boris in Goldeneye at the end “yes, I am invincible”.
Generally, I agree. I did not like Binnington for most of 4-Nations. But, watching the Rivalry doc (on Gem) about the series, I was reminded of him as a clutch performer. My favourite goalie stat is WIN%, and especially in high stakes situations. I say let him play his way out of the starting lineup. Relieve as necessary.
I say the opposite. Start Logan Thompson. If he fades then maybe Kuemper. If they both struggle, then we need a hero, and that’s where Binnington has a chance.
Czechia will be a good test of whether he is going to be reliable or not. Let’s watch the game, as the coaches will, and see what he does or does not bring.
St.Louis has a Stanley Cup basically off of Binnington back the Blues had no business winning that Cup. Binnington as well guided Canada too a 4 Nations Cup victory under intense pressure. In a short pressure packed tournament I dance with the girl I brought and that will be Binnington.
Tory Krug and Jayden Schwartz were also integral in that playoff win – perhaps they should be hot commodities as well”.
Binningon has no business being near the Olympic team based on merit – that was true at the time of selection and more true now – he’s got an .820 in his last five games.
You neglected the John Denver classic song Take Me Home Country Road as being instrumental as well. Coaches and G.M’s like Winner Goalies you better get ready for a steady diet of Billington are at the very least slotted in a must win game.
Darcey Kuemper is also a winner goalie, and more recently than 2019 and he’s also been good that last few years and not one of the worst goaltenders in the league.
Its wild that one puts so much stock in to what a player did 7 years ago
Haha. Does Binnington have insider dirt on Reja? Blues won the cup 7 years ago. 7.
Binnington has had a reputation as a big game goalie for a very long time…that;s why he was chosen for the Canadian team.
We’re about to find out if it’s still true.
Weren’t you gassing up Wedgewood and Blackwood for the first quarter of the season hard? Like turbo boner hard?
Snip snap snip snap
Both should have been considered.
Likely the best tandem in the NHL.
I wouldn’t book your playdate slumber party just yet. Let’s double back in a few weeks on who the hero in net for Canada is.
Think Walman needs to play his natural R side and would be a lot better. I wonder if the UFA Murphy will be made available from Chicago. 4.4 cap hit UFA, He is 32, 6.4/214. Big guy avg 16-17 ish minutes a night including PK.
Is a stay at home guy that hits,
Would he be able to play #4 R side? I believe he is still a good skater, but I haven’t seen any Hawks games in a bit.
He was really good last year in the games I watched. Even hit and whacked McD a few times. Don’t think he would break the bank. You could run
Bouchard/Ekholm
Walman/Murphy
Nurse/Emberson
Stastny
No clue if they are even thinking of this guy and if they would want to extend him.
Walman shoots left. The left side is his natural side and statistically, he is much better there.
Murphy has never been a good skater. He’s one of the slowest skaters in the NHL, and even Chicago has him playing on the 3rd pairing. He struggles with puck-moving. I doubt he’s an upgrade on Emberson.
Walman can, and will, be better – I fully believe that.
I’m not sure if his recent play is simply a slump, still injured or still getting up to speed (he missed camp and the beginning of the season and then a long stretch).
I think he can be better, even on the right side – he was last season. With that said, for now, given Stastney has been up and down, I move Walman back to the left side and run:
EKholm/Nurse/Walman on the left
Bouchard/Emberson/Regula on the right
All three of those left shot D have played top pairing in this league – they’ve to got be able to “anchor” three pairs, right?
I’m with you, I think it’s the lost camp and return from injury. Let’s see if the Olympic break helps him out, a little bit of rest mixed with focused practice could be just what the Dr (25) ordered.
I think the Oil need to slide Wallman where he can succeed. Too bad we can’t have a mouse in the room to see if he has lingering injuries.
There is a player there, just need to get him going again.
I broke his season down a couple nights ago, but my post was late, so just copying and posting again since it is relevant to your point.
Walman started the regular season out of the lineup for the first 2 weeks (6 games) plus whatever time he missed from training camp, then played for a month (17 games), then was out for 2 months (23 games). He’s been back for 3 weeks (12 games) and now there’s a 3-week break.
I don’t believe he came back too early or is still injured, but he’s had 2 injuries this season and that kind of stop-start-stop-start-stop can mess with a d-man’s timing for game play. Plus, while he was out for 2 months, his goalies get switched up completely.
Hopefully this break helps him in that he can use it to rest and won’t be spending it rehabbing an injury.
Nurse’s DFF% is great but if the goals share consistency falls well below (and well below 50%), well, that is what matters, right?
It’s really disappointing that we are where we are with Nurse. Take away the contract and think about where we once were, prior to acquiring Ekholm. Nurse and Klefbom had been developing as the 1A and 1B d-men in the org and then, Klef was gone and Nurse was the team’s #1 d-man.
What happened? I recall Nurse playing a few seasons as the #1, with massive minutes against elites (40% range) with partners that were not even close to top pairing caliber (Ethan Bear, Ceci, Tyson Barrie, etc.) and he was above 50% goal share and, digging further, he was a top 10-15 point producer at 5 on 5.
100% those numbers were blasted up by playing a ton with McDavid but Nurse was a serviceable #1D on a playoff team with far from optimal partners.
He was never “the perfect d-man”, had his flaws and inconsistencies but he was the guy.
The fact (or opinion I guess) that he struggles to anchor a 2nd pairing now and has regressed while in his 20s (and had always had issues in the playoffs) is, well, so disappointing.
Nurse’s play regressed around the same time that the Oilers D configuration changed.
Previously, he was a bit over-aggressive playing man-on-man defence, but he at least stayed on his feet. After he got famously burned for that in the playoffs, he started playing a more passive style (coinciding with a change in the Oilers defensive formation to a zone-D) that he’s totally unsuited for … and because he doesn’t process what’s in front of him well enough to play in this system, he adopted the “starfish”.
Unfortunately, it has become his default mode whenever he’s under pressure in the defensive zone to leave his skates and flop on the ice.
He’s still good at retrievals on dump-ins, and he can still skate the puck out of the d-zone to the redline when he remembers to keep moving his feet, but he needs a vocal partner who will tell him to stay on his skates, and not let the opposition get behind him.
I think this is a good take. Very simply, man to man relies on athleticism while zone relies on the processor. I find myself often yelling…”GO” as he seems late to react.
I thought (and I’m probably wrong) that Nurse’s play started to fall apart when they brought in Keith and Keith suggested in the pre-season that Keith would be the #1 LHD. Then when the Oilers traded for Ekholm to bump Nurse down to the 2nd line, Nurse’s play got quite a bit worse.
It’s almost like Nurse needs to be the top dog to play at that level. I hope he can return to form in a good way for the playoffs this year.
It’s also worth pointing out that Wahlman looked so good in the playoffs last year, and he got to play with a complementary partner in Klingberg. If Bowman can bring in a natural RHD who complements Nurse’s style, that would be incredibly valuable.
Liked that Klingberg pickup.
Its interesting.
Walman/Klingberg played over 200 minutes together in the playoffs and were 50% goals (7-7) and 53% expected goals.
Walman without Klingberg was actually better – 150 minutes, 57% goals shares and 58% expected goals. Only 23 minutes of that was with Nurse (2-1 goals and 58% expected).
Walman without Kling or Nure was also very good – 130 minutes, 10-8 goals and 58% expected.
Walman was excellent in the playoffs no matter who he played with.
Thanks for doing the additional digging into the numbers…
Maybe there’s hope for Walman to return to form in time for playoffs this year. I still think it would be better for a RHD partner with Walman, but clearly the numbers don’t support my hopes. 🙂
One thing I’ve noticed with the Oilers as an organization, they seem to be reluctant to pay rental prices and elect to target guys with term and/or resign them. Maybe they’re scared from Athanasiou. Maybe they’re scared to be viewed as “bleeding assets”.
But it does cause its own issues.
I think they’re about to make the same mistake with Roslovic. Love him. Love the value. But if they sign a small/skilled middle six winger what on earth do you do with Savoie, Howard and Hutson?
Every single time I hear “you’ve got to trade for guys with term” I start getting ill.
Cap room and open spots are a blessing when you’ve already got the top players covered.
I lean this way. Top players are the hard ones to get usually, not second tier and lower. If pro scouting is up to snuff
Term should only be for core players, to me a quality 3C is also that. That being said, the term difference between Mangiapane and Frederic speaks to Fred’s uniqueness as a player
Any player like him tends to get term and a too much money. I think he will recover when the new coach arrives
I think it has been stated by some of the talking heads that they only wanted to trade for players with term and not rentals
Yes, regularly. And it makes me want to vomit.
As does thinking a player that isn’t an utter superstar can be unique enough that giving him 8 years is ever a good decision.
I believe rentals will become more critical for playoff success with the new playoff cap format. If you enter the season with $8M of cap space, which equates to ~$32M cap space at the trade deadline, you are not allowed to exceed the cap heading into the playoffs but you can pick up extra players as injury insurance.
Also, instead of picking up one player on expiring contract in the twilight of their career, you could pick up two and play them every other game to help them stay fresh and productive.
The NHL playoffs are so grueling and tough, teams that can keep rested players on reserve will have a huge advantage.
Bowman does not believe in the sunk cost fallacy
I don’t think that’s true. Frederic comes immediately to mind.
Maybe my phrasing didnt make sense. I meant he falls victim to the sunk cost fallacy – the Frederic contract is a great example because he basically doubled down on his error because he had already given up a lot to get him in trade.
Interesting that Kulak seems to have rebounded in PITT. He is playing over 20 minutes a night at 50% goals and 50% expected goals. and it looks like his skating is back to being good – he is 85th percentile for speed bursts over 20mph. I wonder if he was injured to start the year.
A third pairing of him and Stecher sure would be nice. *hides*
Yes he really had a rough start here this year. But I believed they traded him more ( I don’t know this for sure) because they thought his ask for his next contract would be too much for them
Cody Ceci got 4.5 million x 4 and Joel Edmundson got 3.85 million x 3 last summer. And that was before the big cap jump this summer, and all the good UFAs got extended. There are a ton of teams with cap space burning a hole in their pocket this summer, who are going to spend it foolishly. Kulak’s number starts at 3.5 million with term, and if he keeps playing well for the Pens, he’ll probably get something close to what Ceci got.
Kenny will give him the Ceci deal I bet. And good for Kulak i don’t think he’s ever had a big contract.
I think he just had to play Knoblauch’s confusing passive defence system. It is ineffective and makes all defencemen worse.
Now that is interesting. Bring back Coffey!
If not Nurse on the second pairing, who would you like to see?
Well, the answer better be Walman alongside Nurse or else what are we doing here? We can’t afford Kulak at 3M to play 3LD so we move him and pay someone 7M to play 3LD?
Based on rumours that Bowman asked Nurse to waive his NTC in the offseason last year, I wonder if Bowman’s plan was to keep Walman and jettison Nurse. Walman would then become the 2nd pair anchor at a lower cap hit than Nurse, which would open up more cap space to plug other holes. (at minimum, it would open up $2.25M for a better RHD partner for Walman, and made keeping Kulak as 3LD more manageable).
Unfortunately Nurse refused to waive, so now we have 2 highly-paid LHD who don’t complement each other particularly well, who together form one of the most expensive 2nd pairings in the league (and nowhere near the best).
If Bowman’s plan was actually to replace Nurse with Walman, he should have gotten Nurse’s assent before re-signing Walman. And then when Nurse refused to waive, he should have cut his losses with Walman.
The summer of Stan is looking pretty bad in hindsight (and I say this as someone who was nervous with the Walman contract and angry about the Frederic contract and coach KK extensions in real time).
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
Foegele for Mangiapane. Dollars are almost equal and both have year left.
Sideways?
Matty does not seem to understand that both teams are looking for someone to take the contract and gain the cap space.
That gave me a jump. I’d rather keep Mangi
That’s what it seems like, but if it boils down to trade deadline day and Foegle and Magpie are not moved, I think they might do it. ( If LA wants Magpie over Foegle)
Issue with magpie is somehow Oil need to get him on the positive again for some sort of positive trade value.
No idea how the coaches or room make that change
Foegele was a far more effective player for us than Mangiapane has been.
Ideally, you’d get rid of Mangiapane’s cap hit … but if it were possible to do this (without attaching a sweetener), then it would have been done already. There was a lot of false optimism from the local MSM with respect to the interest other teams had for Mangiapane.
If we are going to have to trade cap hit for cap hit … and it increasingly looks like this is the case … then I don’t mind bring Warren back; he knows the team, knows the city, knows the systems, and fits in the room. He’d add back some of the speed that has been lost in lineup after that disastrous summer in 2024, and is a decent forechecker.
In isolation, 100%, I make that trade but the context is that the Oilers need $3.6MM of cap space and not an inefficient cap contract back.
I would take Foegele over Mangiapane for the same cap hit.
The microdecision of Regula over Stecher was bad in the context of this season. Regula probably would have cleared waivers.
Regula has not played much hockey in the last two years, and is now not playing much hockey this year. He should probably be playing in Bakersfield now to, you know, play.
So the Oilers lost a useful short term asset, and the asset they lost him for is wasting away on the vine.
Things like that happen when there is a lack of organizational alignment.
I’m not sure he would clear waivers, but maybe now as he can’t handle the NHL. It’s too bad he got hurt, he was doing well at first. They need some depth
I really liked Stetcher last year in the playoffs. He played like a little lion. This coach just wouldn’t play him enough. I am sure they were hoping Regula was going to pop and they would be in good shape for the development of a young large D man. Regula has not been the same D period as he was in x games and up until Kane knocked him senseless.
LOL – I didn’t hear a peep about this “mistake” when the Stecher waive was inevitable nor around the time it happened.
The general consensus was not risking Regula on waivers and I don’t recall a peep from you saying he’d clear or it was worth the risk.
i was a fan of waiving stecher, he was awful early on in the season and it makes sense to keep the younger asset.
it is curious that both stecher/kulak have seen their minutes and expected goal shares and high danger shares improve dramatically. i think that points to coaching.
Talk is big Logan Stanley is heading to Detroit, Yzerman wants to be tougher for the playoffs. Stanley was on waivers earlier this year wasn’t he?
Likely Knobluach would not play him, and fans might eat him alive for inability to move the puck.
Yet, isnt one of the biggest issues defending the net front?
Big players like Zadorov or Stanley take longer to develop. A potential positive if taking on a contract, obviously.
But when you have one giant bruiser around that can intimidate, that can have value. Oilers will not be able to “beef up” much at the deadline, they are going into playoffs small, its fact.
When Edmonton played Vancouver in playoffs, Zadorov was a difference make, the only player not intimidated to some extent was Kane. But Kane took a plenty of lumps trying to tackle Zadorov.
Bowman seems to be emulating the Avs and Wild. We’ll see if the smaller puck moving D groups hold up, or the Lightning’s big group prevail
You keep saying Colorado is embracing “smaller puck moving D” without recognizing that Sakic has balanced his pairs with beef.
While the Toews – Makar pairing might support your assertion (Toews is 6’1 although light) the rest of the D lineup is marbled.
Josh Manson – 6’3″ 218
Brent Burns – 6’5″ 209
Keaton Middleton – 6’6′ 240
These were additions after the Avalanche playoff loss.
You might now better than I do about who plays where, I use daily Faceoff and care more about who the coach uses than who is in the org
Consistently there, no D injuries showing, it’s:
Toews 6’1 191 Makar 6’0 187
Manson 6′ 218 Burns 6’5 228
Girard 5’10 170 Malinski 5’11 190
That’s 4 out of 6 undersized and 2 over sized. NST supports these pairs going by TOI. The Wild:
Hughes 5’10 180 Faber 6’1 200
Middleton 6’3 219 Spurgeon 5’9 166
Hunt 6’1 193 Bogosian 6’3 231
Injured regular: Brodin 6’2 196
Still 4 smaller than NHL average guys and 2 oversized
Yes you have the pairings correct but the Avalanche tend to call up Middleton when they play the ruffians in the playoffs. (He also plays forward)
For reference…
As of the 2023-2025 seasons, the average NHL defenseman is just under 6’2″ tall and weighs between 203 and 209 pounds.
I was told by a few wannabes that it wasn’t Sakic making the moves-huge influence in Colorado because he didn’t have the GM title. This made me spit out my coffee and laugh out loud how naive some folks are.
Sakic has full control over player acquisition and signings.
MacFarland does the busy work.
“You keep saying Colorado is embracing “smaller puck moving D””
This was quite literally you saying this for years. You were going on endlessly about how small, puck moving were the future and how big D were a thing of the past. lol
Colorado has obviously found a balance of smaller puck moving D with bigger shutdown D (although both Burns and Manson are far from inept at moving the puck)
Colorado is easily the best defensive team in the league giving up only 2.42 GA/G all while incorporating 4 “smaller puck moving D”.
Makar – 57 points +28
Burns – 26 points +28
Malinski – 26 points +30
Manson – 24 points +37
Toews – 13 points +27 (in only 42GP)
Girard – 12 points + 12 9 (in only 40GP)
A wise hockey man once said the best defense is not defending but playing in the other teams end.
Proof meet pudding.
Although I’m sure you have a much better strategy in mind.
Wise people once said on this blog that there should be a balance. You stomped your feet and had a tantrum almost daily, going “nuh uh! Small, puck moving D are the future! You are all wrong!”
Once again, you are late to the party and trying to act as if you were there the whole time.
Coaching has been top of mind lately, I had a look at the coaches to remind myself about their backgrounds
Knoblauch
2 years NHL Asst Coach
4.25 years AHL Head Coach
2.75 years NHL Head Coach (All Oilers)
Stuart
2 years US College Asst Coach
3.75 years NHL Asst Coach (All Oilers)
McFarland
4 years WHL Head Coach
6.75 years NHL Asst (Florida, Toronto, Seattle, Edmonton)
Peter Aubry
2 years AHL
2 years College
.75 years NHL
Warren Rychel
9th year as an NHL scout
Zach Kassian
apparently an Oiler pro scout?
Dominik Zrim – Director Hockey Strategy
Has worked for the Hawks and Sharks, how long isn’t easy to find
Co Founder Capfriendly, I sure hope he’s on the analytics systems side (his background) and not actual hockey strategy as he doesn’t seem to have the background. And the Oilers sucks to me
I look at this and think what are they doing? When your most NHL tenured coach is in their 7th NHL season and is an Asst Coach, that is a very inexperienced group
This is very strange for a team where the Oilers are at. Is it the owner limiting salaries or something? Is it Jackson trying something radical, going to reinvent the league with younger people?
Given the season we are seeing, and the team having declining stats under Knoblauch outside of making the finals twice (which now seems to me like in spite of rather than because of), it seems like this is less than an ideal situation off the ice
Way too many people learning on the job for me. They also seem a bit thin on numbers compared to some teams, but perhaps it’s just not easy to find. Man this team
Yeah I’ve been complaining about the lack of experience of the assistant coaches since the summer and also the fact that they didn’t even fill one of the positions they lost. I do wonder if Knoblauch chose less experienced guys due to tension between him and more experienced guys like Coff and Gully. No info on Gully just a thought. Because even a coach like Quenneville has Woodcroft as an assistant.
this site has a list of all the coaching staffs in the league. There’s maybe 6 with only two assistants (Avs, Blues, Habs, Canes, Wings, us) https://puckpedia.com/coaches
I wouldn’t think it is a salary issue in hockey ops as they are paying their AHL players a ton – 400k for Tomkins, 400k for Hutson’s new deal. But who knows
I wonder if Zack had a say in the Clattenburg pick or was that before his time. Anyhow any player that makes it to the show at age 20 a #160 deep while scoring a goal that scout deserves accolades. Everyone whining about the response to the McDavid hit yet brushes off Clattenburg like lint on their fine suits makes me chuckle.
No. Clattenburg was drafted in 2023. and Zack was a pro scout from Sept/24 to June/25.
I’m not sure there is anyone that hasn’t given Clattenburg his kudos – he’s already out-punched his draft day projection.
I haven’t seen anyone brush him off.
He can skate and he has some skill – there is a chance for him to be a real impact player at the NHL level if he commits to some development in the “non-pugilist” areas of the game
I know not a big part of your post, but Kassian is no longer a pro scout with the Oilers. He was during the 2024/25 season, based on Ontario.
Oilers part ways with pro scout Zack Kassian after one season
Kassian was clamouring for Rantanen based on Oilers + lol. Big game hunter
Thanks my brief search didn’t find it
I haven’t looked at the numbers recently, but from memory Nurse-Bouchard is just as effective as Ekholm-Bouchard. If that’s the case, I’d take a look at other 2nd pairing options like Ekholm-Walman or Ekholm-Emberson.
I think so as well. It’s weird they won’t spread ability out, and then wonder why half the team has issues
Both Nurse and Walman like to wander and together become completely unpredictable.
They do need more time together, but Walman seems quite a bit behind in his game right now.
Nurse – Emberson might be best second pair, and allow Walman – Stastney to hold down third pair. Both Emberson and Statsney can cover for thier partners wandering ways.
It works, or it allows Walman lesser competition as he gets his game back, he has underperformed expectations this year.
I agree with the last option in your article, keep the powder dry at the deadline and re-tool next season.
As I ponder trade targets that could make a difference, I come to the conclusion it is all irrelevant.
We have backed of coach for a while, but that discussion is coming back.
If he does not change anything, style, systems, support of players, ice time; then acquiring another player is irrelevant.
The problem with that is that next season the Oilers will be competing for talent with many other teams that have far more cap space and draft capital.
For an extreme example, the Oilers will have just $13 million in cap space (subject to moving out dead weight) which might cost capital) while San Jose will have $54 million.
Seattle has 2 first round picks this year, 2 more firsts, 3 seconds and a total of 10 next season as well as almost $37 million in cap space.
The Oilers will need to spend some or most of that cap room to re-sign or replace Roslovic, Kapanen, Henrique, Lazar, Stastney and Ingram.
The cupboards are almost bare.
i know they are almost bare, so unless Bowman legitimately thinks this team can win Stanley this year, I think they should hang on to any assets they do have then try to improve the team over the next 12 months ……..
My point was improving the team over the next 12 months is an enormous challenge given the spending spree we’re about to see.
This, while the Oilers core is another year closer to the age cliff.
Maybe:
Ek. BOUCH
WAL. Braden Schneider
Nurse. Emberson
Broberg…sigh.
Ideally he would have been on year 3 of an 8/40m deal
We’d still have Nurse on the Roster (so the Leftorium would have still been a huge problem), but we wouldn’t have had to have added Walman (or given up the 1st round pick to get him).
That was the key issue. Paying more for an inferior, unreliable replacement.
Swedish d looking decent this sonic rings tourney
Question is. What would Walman look like playing on the left side with a good RHD?
How would one acquire this “good RHD”?
Well we have a pile of assets sitting in the AHL that will never seem to get a proper role in Edmonton. We need to stop chasing the high priced big name players and get the right complementary players for our stars. And maybe a coach that will run 4 lines…I hear DeBour does that. Maybe:
Mcman. Mcdavid. Hyman
Pods. Drai. Kap
Savoie. Nuge. Ross
M.Barron lazar. Freddy
Ek. Bouch
Walman. Schneider
Nurse. Emberson
Allot more speed and size. Players in their proper positions. And run 4 lines.
What do you think Lowetide?
Schneider has done nothing to warrant the title of ‘good RHD’. If you have a good priced competent RHD, why in gods name would you trade that for AHL players?
How many first round picks will we have to trade to get Brayden Schneider, Bobby McMann and Morgan Barron?
Interesting. One guy says Schneider is garbage. And another says we have to give up multiple 1st to get Winnipeg 4th line player, Toronto UFA who recently was a 4th line player until recently.
I think it’s also worth asking what would Nurse look like playing with a good RHD. I don’t think it would fix everything, but the Oilers could have at least had a strong 2nd pairing.
Walman hasn’t looked 100% yet. I imagine he needs time to get back up to speed, as Ekholm did earlier in the year, coming back from injury. I hope they stay the course for now. If they do make changes, I think they should keep Stastney-Emberson as the third pair and run Walman-Bouchard and Nurse-Ekholm. I imagine they try to get a defensive D to push Stastney into the 7th slot. Nurse-Emberson and Walman-(trade deadline RD). How about Braden Schneider? Young, cost-controlled, and briefly played for Knoblauch in Hartford. The cost might be high, but he checks a lot of boxes.
I agree. They don’t have anyone on the roster to replace Nurse, and they don’t have the assets to trade for an upgrade.
“level” the playing field with the assets they have.
I believe you’ve spoken to the arrangement go oil mentioned above in your blog posts Alan.
I feel this switch up may let the teeter-totter level out.
Hope there’s no short people with their legs dangling on the pendulum neutral tho! Haha
Any D-man on the AHL team can replace Darnell Nurse.
Right-handed, left-handed, one-legged, one-eyed, don’t matter.
Worst defenceman in the history of the Stanley Cup Final?
Oh my, how can you replace that level of ineffectuality?
Puh-leeze.
If these are the guys I agree. I think NHL level people should be able to tell what is going on, and if it’s a time thing show trust and let those guys get up to speed, and let the newer pairs get their rhythm down. What other choice is there at this point?
Maybe add a better D coach, MacT had some points about how Nurse does certain things that are leading to his problems, like the way he goes down when he does and why it still lets pucks through, teachable improvements
Viz the team’s overall poor defensive play this season, MacT had this to say on the post-Calgary GYB podcast: “…“you know, we’re getting back to Charlie Huddy’s famous line about never trust a friggin forward. And that’s sad because, you know, as a forward, you want the defense to support the offensive zone plays by pinching down and sustaining that offensive play. But if you can’t be depended upon as a forward to back up the defense, I mean…”
I’d love to see what Nurse’s (all the D & goalie) numbers would look like if the F group played consistent, dependable hockey. We caught a glimpse, between Nov 26-Dec 25. They *can* do it. But, since Games 5&6 SCF 2025, and for big chunks of this season, the F group is —to paraphrase the Capt— hitting its head against the same wall, cheating for offence, getting loser results. Who’s paying? The goalies. The D. Nurse and Walman specifically, right now. The coaches. But the F group?
ps. Churn gives the illusion of “solving problems.”
I don’t know what to say other than now I want Huddy back more than ever
I don’t think Nurse/Ekholm is a feasible paring given Ekholm has had poor results on the right side in the past (and his mobility isn’t getting better).