Oilers at Avalanche, G65 2025-26

The Oilers are playing the most important games of the season in these days, and the stories surrounding the team involve frayed nerves and contemplating major changes. It’s easy to believe these things are net negative and show the cracks and holes in the roster and an addled and or panicked front office.

In truth, these things may be good for the team. I don’t know what happened between Tristan Jarry and the leadership group, but hockey history is full of ‘conflict leads to winning’ stories. In the middle of the 1971 playoffs, Montreal Canadiens center Henri Richard basically called the head coach (Al Macneil) a dumbass. The Habs would win Stanley, with Richard in a starring role.

From a distance, this team always seems wound too tight. Captain Connor McDavid appears to eat, sleep, breathe hockey and is laser focused on winning. You know who was intense, and drove his teammates to distraction while playing for the Oilers? Chris Pronger. Did you know that Mark Messier stood up to Glen Sather in practice many years ago in an emotionally charged moment? We don’t know what we don’t know, but I tend to believe good things can come from conflict.

Now, about that move contemplated by management.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
• On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 1-0-0 
• At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1)
• On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
• At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
• Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
• Actual Record: 2-1-0
• Season Record: 31-25-8, 70 points in 64 games

I don’t give the Oilers much of a chance tonight. I’ll watch the game, but the Avs are a wagon. In the last four games Colorado has scored 10 and allowed 5 goals at five-on-five. In the Oilers last four games, the team has scored nine goals at five-on-five. And allowed 12. I don’t think the team can clean up their issues quickly enough to beat a team like Colorado tonight. Hope I’m wrong.

DARNELL NURSE

On Saturday I wrote about Darnell Nurse and his future with the Edmonton Oilers. The article, published yesterday, is here. Later Monday, word came from Elliotte Friedman that the Oilers contemplated dealing Nurse. My piece was not a negative one, I value what Nurse brings and people far smarter than me had his estimated value at about $2 million less than his cap hit.

The news suggests Edmonton is paying attention to things like value contracts and getting optimal return on all 23 roster spots. I’m a fan of Nurse, but this past deadline (for me) could have been stronger if the team had more room to wheel. Things change. When Nurse was signed, Oscar Klefbom’s situation left the team in a tough spot. Ken Holland acquiring Duncan Keith from Chicago so the ‘Hawks could sign Seth Jones to a massive deal didn’t help, and the club could have traded Nurse.

The Nurse contract has been the subject of conversation since it was signed. In the 2027 offseason the restrictions of the NMC ease, and the team could move him then. If the player is open to moving this summer, it gives Stan Bowman a window of opportunity.

Here’s the downbeat: Edmonton is likely to take on another contract with a high number. The player coming back probably delivers less than the face value of his contract. So, before dreaming of a deal that sends Nurse and Ike Howard to Pittsburgh for a seventh-round pick, I think it’s worth suggesting that Nurse for Provorov might be closer to reality. NHL teams rarely take on a massive deal without sending similar money out. Ken Holland did it in the Duncan Keith deal and it cost the Oilers plenty.

Nurse has value. He is having a tough season. His five-on-five goal share away from Connor McDavid is 35 percent this season. That’s poor. However, that number was 54 percent one year ago. Even this season, you put Nurse with Evan Bouchard and it’s a 73 percent goal share at five-on-five.

I believe Nurse has value. I do not think the Oilers should deal him with a pile of picks just to get him off the roster. I’m sure many of you do. I also know, and have evidence in the comments section, that many of you believed getting rid of Stuart Skinner, no matter the replacement, was vital to the season. How is that working out? I’m encouraged management is looking at roster construction with a more critical eye, but the next step is to make deals that return real value when offloading a problematic contract. Can Stan Bowman make that trade?

On the Lowdown today, it’s the roundtable with four young jack o’lanterns (Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson, Josh Fenwick, MacKenzie Mclennan) with quick wit and thunderous takes. They will run circles around an old man for two hours (noon to 2pm) on Sports 1440 in a concerted effort to run me out of radio. I’m tough as a mongoose, so they’re going to have to puck a lunch because it’ll take all day.