Oilers at Golden Knights, G73 2025-26

I think Clifford sums up my feeling about the Oilers currently. This team is like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
• On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1 
• At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 2-2-0
• On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
• At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
• Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
• Actual Record: 6-4-1
• Season Record: 35-28-9, 79 points in 72 games

This is it now, we’re here. There’s no way out, it’s time to stand and deliver. A win tonight for Edmonton means the Oilers have a three-point edge on Vegas with both teams holding nine more opportunities to collect points. It would not put second place in the Pacific to bed, but it would give more clearance between the only good Alberta team and also-rans like the Los Angeles Kings and Seattle Kraken. It’s a big damned game.

Lots of talk these days about the Oilers defense and how it is being deployed. We don’t have much evidence since the trade deadline, but do have enough to measure how Paul Coffey is doling out playing time. Here are the minutes against elites, by defenceman, compared to TOI before the deadline (in brackets):

• Evan Bouchard 8:51 (up from 6:17 before the deadline)
• Mattias Ekholm 8:10 (up from 6:15 before the deadline)
• Connor Murphy 7:27 (arrived at deadline)
• Darnell Nurse 7:25 (up from 5:53 before the deadline)
• Jake Walman 5:16 (down from 5:34 before the deadline)
• Ty Emberson 4:53 (up from 3:27 before the deadline)
• Spencer Stastney 3:16 (same as pre-deadline, 3:13)

This can seem confusing, because everyone but Jake Walman is either flat, up, or up substantially. PuckIQ measures elite talent based on individual quality. So, when the Oilers are running through a period where teams have more impact players, the TOI versus elites increases. What we can takeaway is that Coffey has a clear delineation of his three pairings: Ekholm-Bouchard, then Nurse-Murphy, then the third pair. Bouchard has earned strong Norris consideration but he won’t get it. Bias is a thing. What are the outscoring results? Current results (pre-deadline results):

• Bouchard 54% DFF; 86 Pct Goals (55% DFF, 60 Pct Goals)
• Ekholm 51% DFF; 75 Pct Goals (56% DFF, 59 Pct Goals)
• Murphy 37% DFF; 0-4 goals
• Nurse 43% DFF; 29 Pct Goals (49% DFF; 50 Pct Goals)
• Jake Walman 31% DFF; 43 Pct Goals (42% DFF; 46 Pct Goals)
• Ty Emberson 44% DFF; 50 Pct Goals (48% DFF; 47 Pct Goals)
• Spencer Stastney 14% DFF; 0-3 goals (47% DFF; 25 Pct Goals)

Bouchard and Ekholm shine like diamonds even with the increased work, but Nurse-Murphy are struggling versus elites. That’s going to be a problem. I like Ty Emberson, he’s a guy who should be able to deliver on a third pair with a healthy Walman. I’m not certain the Oilers can fix the second pair, but would suggest the team experiement with Nurse-Bouchard, Ekholm-Murphy.

We’ll see. On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk with Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation, visit the Vegas side and talk opening day baseball and March madness. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.