Every day I sit at my typewriter and slam out some words about the Oilers, NHL hockey, the Rolling Stones, demon liquor and women who make terrible decisions (thankfully). I always, and I mean always, feel good when I’m done writing this morning piece (or anything I write, really). I don’t know why, but just like a runner chases that natural high, somehow writing is my jam. Please read this.
Then, the world of hockey brings me stories through the day, and I ponder them, choose the best, and write about it the next morning. My mutterings here often feed The Athletic articles, and I find both to be wonderful outlets.
The radio is where I’m most at home. I’ve been on the radio 46 years, so it’s kind of like breathing. I’ll miss it when radio no longer wants me, I lost it a couple of years ago before Jason Gregor gave me a call and gifted me a new avenue.
Most days, I have to search for ideas. Today? There are several. Here we go.
Roby Jarventie signed in Switzerland, signaling the end (at least for now) of his NHL pursuit. Based on his AHL numbers, and the games I saw online, Jarventie earned an NHL job. Now, Max Jones ate his lunch and played well, and the Oilers are reaching for higher ground, but I do think this was an opportunity lost for both sides.
I always cheer for guys like Jarventie, who in my opinon has a level of talent similar to 100 NHL forwards. It’s mostly luck, good and bad, that allows or disallows an NHL career for the final roster spots. You may disagree, but I’ve witnessed hundreds of Larry Mavety’s and Chad Hinz (Hinzes?) types over the years, and they could have played in the NHL. Sail on, Roby. We barely knew you.
Oilers fans online are up in arms because Bob (hi Bob!) talked about Kris Knoblauch returning with a new support staff and the team deciding the Glimmer Twins will play together next season at five-on-five. So, let’s unpack both things.
First, Knoblauch has a three-year contract. Bowman signed him, Katz signed off. There’s money and ego and the rep two trips to the final bring, and few will mention the massive misstep that will come in not hiring Bruce Cassidy.
Edmonton would be far better off with Cassidy, because he has a proven system that works in suppressing opposition sorties, and the system gets the puck out under control. However, Cassidy needs all hands on deck, and won’t allow one line to freewheel while the other lines tend to their chores. I doubt the Oilers ever get to the interview stage with a coach like Cassidy during the McDavid era. Won’t happen.
If you’re Katz, winning the Stanley Cup is absolutely a goal, but keeping McDavid with the Oilers is a more important one. McDavid drives franchise value, ticket sales, viewership and brand reputation. He’s a powerful hockey icon, and the team will always be freewheeling and exciting during his time here. The question is will they win this way? I think they can. I also think they can win with Cassidy, and probably easier. But Katz is a business man and a fan, and McDavid in Edmonton keeps both the business and the fan sides of the owner happy. I can see it.
As for running McDavid-Draisaitl together, we can talk about it all you want. I have a one question response: how many Oilers forwards aside from 97 and 29 can push the river? Exactly.
Will all of Katz, McDavid and the rest look back 20 years from now with regret? There’s a good chance the answer is yes. Humans are funny people. I don’t think Cassidy and Oilers are a match. Would love to be wrong.
Finally, I’ve been trying to find out why analytics folks that I read are kind of downbeat on John Chayka as GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now, I will tell you that the group of people I talk to from the analytics world are publicly read daily. I have spoken to people like Tyler Dellow, Tim Barnes, Michael Parkatti, Rob Vollman, Dennis King and Eric Tulsky over the years, but never once they are hired by an NHL team. I’m media, and I never want to hear something that I can’t resist using and I’m not that good of a person. So, it’s to protect me, honestly.
That said, I still have math folks who I can reach out to in the public domain, and I’m reading some real downbeat stuff on Chayka from the analytics crowd. This flies in the face of every previous conversation I’ve had with math men and women. They’re all wildly supportive of each other. On Chayka, I have asked and no one has answered.
So, I’m left with this fact: Chayka targeted good players in the desert, but overpaid for them and his teams bled a lot of talent in getting better. Beyond that, I have nothing. I will say that I thought Toronto hiring Kyle Dubas was a strong move, and believe Chayka will be able to identify opportunities (like Beau Akey with the Oilers. He’s good and the Oilers don’t like him, pretty sure) that are out there.
Everyone looks at the biggest and most obvious solutions to problems. However, math people look at ALL solutions to problems and then pick the best one based on asset cost and chances of a positive outcome.
I don’t talk to the math people I know who are with NHL teams, but surely all of them are aware of what other NHL teams are doing. Jarventie to Switzerland, matched against those who will return in the fall, means the Oilers remain less than efficient. Same goes for Akey, who will no doubt be sent away as a throw-in at some point in the next 12 months.
Good teams maximize rosters and look for every chance to improve. The Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Oilers to a lesser extent, listened to the fan base and acted accordingly.
So, when Toronto hires John Chayka, and everyone buries him, I kind of cheer for the guy. Just like Jarventie and Mavety, I see Chayka as a massive underdog who has an opportunity to prove himself. If he does, Toronto will benefit greatly. This morning, I wish the Oilers were as innovative. Maybe next decade.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Kevin McCurdy. We’ll talk Oilers offseason and what may come. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Oilers trade targets: Who should Edmonton try to acquire this offseason?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7255062/2026/05/06/edmonton-oilers-trade-targets-goalies-2026/
I don’t see the Oilers making a play for either Blackwood or Gustavsson, only because I don’t foresee a way out from the Jarry contract.
For those that follow these type of things, what are the thoughts on Connor Ungar? Is he a NHL goalie now or in the future?
He has earned half of the net next season in Bakersfield imo. We’ll see how that goes.
Lets see if they re-sign him first…
You’re probably right there doesn’t seem to be a way out of the Jarry contract.
That’s why they need a young inexpensive NHL ready goaltender to go along with Jarry, like a Cossa.
Because all of the Oiler goalie prospects aren’t ready for NHL prime time, including Connor Ungar.
I fully expect Tristan Jarry to have a much better season as an Oiler next year than he did this past season. He has a long history of decent success in this league as a starting goaltender and I don’t think the bottom has just fallen out at his age.
The majority of non-elite goalies tend to have wild swings from year to year and I look for a bounce back from Jarry.
There is no other real option for next season I don’t think.
Cossa would be great – he seems NHL ready.
I think the acquisition cost would be high (higher than Howard).
Hope for the best plan for the worst.
Looking at Jarry’s stats, he’s been on a downward trajectory since his 21/22 season.
There is only so much “planning for the worst” you can do in the hard cap world though, right?
Jarry has been above league average every year except for last year (and .893 isn’t even that far below any more) and his time as an Oiler – he was .909 in 14 games for Pit last year.
Hoping that Jarry reverses his multi-year trend is not prudent. Plan for the worst by having a better option for the 2nd goalie. I don’t think that’s too much to ask for from competent management.
Tristan Jarry has a long history of undermining the last stage of Sydney Crosby’s career.
Now back that up with actual facts
You keep saying this but its not based in fact.
Jarry made 630-675K from 2015-2020
During this time, he played 26 games in 2017-18 and 33 in 2019-20
Out of 64 goalies 2017-2020 with 2000+ min TOI (all strengths, NST):
(Matt Murray, the main starter at 137 GP, was .909 and -0.04)
He also started one game during this time in the 2020 playoffs, in a losing effort with 1 goal against on 21 saves
2017-20: Excellent value backup giving ~30 above average games for 2 seasons
In his next phase, he continued to have a very team-friendly 3.5 mil/season from 2020-2023 while serving as 1A/starter
DeSmith was getting 1.25 mil, so the amount spent on goaltending was under 5.
Out of 69 goalies 2020-2023 with 2000+ min TOI (all strengths, NST):
(DeSmith was .909 and +0.1)
Because I hear there was decline
2020-23: 3.5 mil/season starter giving top 25%ile performance, also excellent value
Playoffs
2021 playoffs lost 4-2 to NYI with Varlamov and Sorokin
So Jarry got outplayed by Sorokin, one of the best goalies in the game, who won that series far more than Jarry lost it. Crosby couldn’t beat him, nor could his teammates, and Malkin was injured.
2022 Jarry has incredible season, played 58 games, and injured foot just before playoffs April 14. Lose as underdog to NYR (who go to ECF), with Jarry returning for game 6 losing 4-3 in OT
2023, Winter classic injury, still started nearly 50 games and DeSmith/Tokarski couldn’t hold fort during this time
So, from 2017-23, he provided excellent value for a goalie making 0.6-3.5 mil/season.
His one full playoff series, he got beaten by Sorokin who played like Sorokin.
Crosby didn’t perform in that series. If that was McDavid, he’d have been crucified.
This is great work.
Jarry has had 2 bad stretches over the last 2 seasons.
The one this year was horrendous, no sugar coating it.
The one last year was as follows
-Before being sent down again, Jarry had an 8-8-4 record with a .884 save percentage. e.g. a typical bad stretch for Skinner
In front of an awful Pittsburgh D, where no goalie fared well.
Returned and posted 8-4-2 record and post a save percentage of .904% along the way
Prior to that, you can look at S% decline in front of a porous Pens team, or say that 24-25 and 25-26 were the first seasons where his S% lagged below expected, and the cause was wild inconsistency, which was a trademark of the Skinner era.
2 years of very uncharacteristic inconsistency in a row for Jarry are very worrisome. But the history preceding that was not what it was chalked up to be. So I don’t profess to know if he’ll bounce back. But he clearly was also very capable for half the year in each season. That’s about what we were getting from Skinner.
Definitely not worth a 3+ million salary bump from Skinner. This is also Jarry’s floor. Can he get closer to the ceiling again, is the question. He was there for longer and more consistently in a starter role that Skinner, that’s all I can really say.
And his playoff sample size was incredibly small and with a flawed Pens team
Thank you. I was not a fan of the Skinner trade (I thought it was a response to a lot of fan-hate more than anything). However, I’m on record as saying “don’t blame the goalie” for most of what goalies are held responsible for. I hope Jarry find his confidence, and with that a game that’ll work with this team. Oilerville— the team, the fans, the pundits— eats goalies for breakfast lunch and dinner.
You’re crushing it with the stats! You just showed why of available goalies Bowman did that. Anyone better- if anyone was available- would probably have cost the moon and the Oilers were short on assets and players they could freely move
Haha, thanks
Those were mostly to crush the narrative that Jarry somehow tanked Crosby.
I have had other posts about Jarry, Ingram and Skinner.
Jarry’s 23-24 was average,
24-25 was bad —> above average,
and 25-26 was excellent (before trade)
and that was after those 5 solid years with a bit of injury wobble.
That was what they knew at the time.
I have said that the mistake in my estimation wasn’t that they traded for Jarry, but that they traded for him at his peak while selling Skinner/Kulak at their floor. If they had identified him as a target for a 1A/B rotation, they probably could have achieved it in the off-season, when Pickard’s rep was higher after B2B playoff relief performances and Jarry was in the recovering phase. Jarry, Ingram, Skinner could have all been in the organization. Or Ingram Pickard Jarry with ?retention. Bowman paid to see the river, and Dubas flopped a straight
He is likely not to be resigned, his play dropped off in the second half of his season.
I think the organization will want to clear the deck for Samuel Jonsson, but who knows.
Never “clear the deck” with goalies.
Stack em deep. It’s not difficult.
Not true, this has been very difficult for this organization. I think mainly due to very few injuries to the top 2 goalies, this has not allowed for substantial NHL opportunities for depth goaltenders over at least the past 10 seasons.
If you have more than 6 goaltenders, you will have trouble finding playing time on a healthy roster.
From what I recall only Jarry who was unable to play for about 3 weeks and Jonsson, who was out for about 3 weeks, there were no G injuries this season.
Also, Ungar was late to camp due to recovery from an end of 24-25 season injury.
Looks like the Torts effect already lost its mojo. Q master class
That was a nice deflection
The Ducklings are learning fast.
They have now seized home ice advantage and they were much better on home ice this season.
This game it looks like Q has the Ducks using 2-3 in the O zone, and they are staying above the puck more. Adjustments to stop rush plays against, and the young team is doing it so far. And they get one
The Oilers remind me of a very talented and creative musician or band that never got the basics down, didn’t learn how to play the classic styles
There was that documentary with Jimmy Page, Jack White and The Edge. Wow I thought Page and The Edge cool. I didn’t really enjoy the White Stripes but whatever. Turns out White is a super talented and knowledgeable guitarist, Jimmy is top of the list for me. I have always liked U2 mostly because they are creative and can write songs, Bono is a great performer, they had so much passion, less so for pure musicianship
I felt embarrassed for Edge. He created a new guitar sound and style for U2 that has been hugely successful and forged a new path in pop music. But he was so much less capable as a guitarist it was shocking. He couldn’t jam with them. Not sure I even finished watching
It reminds me of Connor. An all time great, unique talent. But he hasn’t learned all of the weird scales and enough of the classic styles. And nobody has convinced him to. Somebody needs to mentor him to have some fall back positions that doesn’t involve him having to create everything all of the time, because when it’s not there everybody needs a fall back that they don’t have to think about and just do
As a team the Oilers need that
This is a very interesting post and I like the analogy a lot. I too see Connor as a brilliant soloist who needs to learn more to maximize his bandmates in an improvisational approach.
Having some proficiency on the guitar myself, I found your views of the Edge, Page, and Jack to be spot on. U2 were all self taught. They started as rudimentary musicians together and as they learned their instruments, they grew into a very unique and singular group, totally reliant on each other. I doubt they ever played three cover sets a night or jammed with other musicians on a 12 bar blues. It’s not how they polished their craft. Jack White and Jimmy Page took the traditional path. They learned blues standards and the traditional form that enables musicians to find a common language in a jam. It was very revealing in that doc that the Edge brought a song (The Weight) to jam on. That’s the polar opposite approach to showing up and saying “shuffle in E minor.” Edge plays guitar to emote in a song. He’s not about trading 8’s.
All that said, I play a few U2 songs (Bad, Streets, Pride) and it is not easy to do what the Edge does. Playing with a repeated delay requires solid meter and a good ear. If you fall out of tempo the slightest with those repeats, the whole thing piles up like cars on the freeway. Or like Connor trying to beat three defenders by his lonesome.
I get that this season was disappointing, but posters wondering if Knoblauch can get another HC job if the Oil fire him. Seriously?
Two Finals appearances and three consecutive playoff appearances in his first three seasons as an NHL coach. Those are Scotty Bowman numbers.
We can want change behind the bench, but let’s stay classy San Diego. Knoblauch has proven he belongs in the dance.
I still like the idea of keeping KK and giving him an ex HC assistant with Cup pedigree like Laviolette or Boudreau. Young Luke needs his Yoda now.
Thing is in 4 or 5 years when young Luke has it all figured out, it will be too late. He isn’t showing fast progression, he has decreased their effectiveness in scoring each season. Having 3 of the best offensive players in the league. Roster getting better or at least not actually worse when healthy. And not having made team defense better consistently
A weak season was not unexpected given games played, but they played poorly for a big part, and that’s not a given even if not having enough for a Cup this season was
Buffalo’s 2nd PP unit is killing this game!
Go clouder!!
Fun fact
2025-2026 PP top 5
1. EDM @ 30.6% (68/222)
-> goals in 1st minute: 50/68 = 73.5%
2. DAL @ 28.6% (71/248)
-> 1st minite: 41/71 = 57.7%
3. MIN @ 25.2% (65/258)
-> 1st minute: 32/65 = 49.2%
4. CAR @24.9% (60/241)
-> 1st mimute: 29/60 = 48.3%
5. NYR @ 24.7% (53/215)
-> 1st minute: 26/53 = 49.1%
If Edmonton would have had a special rule where they just waived the 2nd minute after the 1st unit had it’s 60 second attempt: 50/222 = 22.5%
In whatever time beyond 60 seconds 1st unit was on ice 13/172 = 7.6%
Big Bobby Clobber says lots of things that don’t pan out. I think that the Oil would move on from KK if the right situation arose. I admit, I don’t know what the “right situation” would look like:). And, despite the fact he sometimes suggests things that don’t happen Bob is an absolute gem! The back and forth between him and MacT on Oilers Now is pure quality.
I hope Colton has some of Kirby’s net driving skill. That’s two amazing goals on drives where he won’t be denied
I agree with Cassidy being the right choice and hope to disagree that McDavid is the reason KK is still here. If they truly conclude he is the best available coach (I disagree, and with Gregor’s article/analogy in support of KK on ON) on merit, then at least that is something.
As just one other point to support this
This was what I posted on March 6 (2 months of terrible play):
Since January 1, the Oilers have scored 86 goals.
For this 20+ game stretch, they gave a goal right back 25% of the time within 3 minutes of scoring a goal
And the splits between giving a goal right back nearly half the time in their losses (which were multiple) to only ~1/8 the time in a win, make complete sense to me.
Does that not seem a bit crazy?
Does that not seem like blaming goalies and Nurse/Walman, etc. is an oversimplificaton?
To me, its deployment, directions, structure, effort.
(I had to do deep dive to review this, there may be a better stats site for this – but I feel it was a microcosm of something our eyes have told us for quite some time)
Cassidy could certainly help in this area.
Nice dig. Long drive today listened to a lot of 1440, thought about the coach. He’s not a bad coach, but is he enough coach? What if Cassidy is too hard ass?
The stats you posted show he couldn’t get handle on things. He chose a suspect group of assistants. The goal data has been trending down steadily since he’s ran full seasons
Defense wins, but in the NHL you still can’t win without offense. Cup winners are usually close to or at the top of both, and have at least average special teams
The last thing for me that closes the case is the other perennial contenders, and the up and comers. Almost exclusively they have demanding coaches, that demand hard detail oriented work. That’s why they win
They have bench presence, not necessarily hassling players but definitely willing to get mad at refs, know when to have their guys’ backs. Also in the media, when to do it, and deflect pressure and keep their guys relaxed enough
That doesn’t mean they are not liked by the players, and unless it’s known Cassidy doesn’t gain rapport with his players or is Torts extreme I’d have my review done and be making phone calls
Changing the coach matters less than running through another season without 100% confidence from management and players. Clearly the Duo aren’t 100% sure
Can you push the river if you are never given the opportunity?
Trade Recommendation … Dman Darnell Nurse for power forward Darnell Nurse. 97 &. 29 are vocal regarding Nurse a core teammate
With the cap going up to $104m (and potentially increasing substantially later still), are we getting to the point where more and more teams will not be able to spend to the cap?
If so, less completion for Free Agents, right?
I agree.
While true there’s definitely teams that have almost no chance of signing the better free agents in the first place.
With Utah now free from their nightmare in the desert, almost every team is now owned by a billionaire or a massive corporation.
There are very, very few teams that cannot afford to spend to the cap although a couple might choose todo so if they aren’t close to contending.
Berezkin sores the double OT winner in game 7 to send Loco to the finals….
Can’t wait to see if he can make a diffence with the Oilers.
Be nice if he could replace Roslovic.
He could be a solid fit in the middle six or he could be nowhere near ready for the NHL – I have no idea but, yes, intrigued to find out.
Samanski also heading to the World Championship.
Unfortunately none. If you included other positions I’d be inclined to add Bouchard. Problem is Bouchard will likely be put out with them as much as possible. Teams will then stack their top D and coverage against that line with a 90% chance of winning if you keep them to 1 or 2 goals.
It’s exciting as all hell watching those three snap it around the o-zone for a minute and a half but nothing bothers me more than watching the next 2:30-3min holding onto your ass with maybe a 5% chance of a GF.
If management and coaching are wrapped around an axel on that idea then they’d better have a plan to bring in a 2C and 3C that have some semblance of pushing river at 5v5. In no world are either of those names Nuge or Dickinson. If those two are the plan, be ready for a disappointing season.
On the UFA list you have to squint real hard to find one, let alone two C who can push. Maybe Malkin if he finds a fountain of youth at the end of rainbow this summer. Which means it would have to be through trade but the cupboards are bare. Could Nurse++ (if he waives) be used to find one (Trocheck et al.) and fill the 2LD/3LD hole with a UFA. I don’t know…
In any case, I agree with LT, the forward group is the most important item to address this offseason. Especially if the plan is to play McDavid-Draisaitl together.
A team with more creativity might run Walman Murphy with the duo and use Bouch to juice other lines. Walman can move the puck also
Connor and Leon are on board for improvement whatever that looks like. A deeper team with the better balance fits the bill
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
NHL officially informs teams of the 2026-27 Salary cap and payroll range:
Floor: $76.9M
Midpoint: $90.4M
Ceiling: $104M
Maximum salary: $20.8M
11:35 AM · May 6, 2026
·
8.5million increase, Oilers bringing in a top 6 center or a disgruntled Pasta odds just went up.
Dickinson – $4 million
Roslovic – $3 million
Kapanen – $2 million
Dach – $1million
Lazar – $1 million
Murphy – $4 million
Ingram – $3 million
Poof!
McDavid called this team average. Draisaitl said this team had taken a step back. Are they just going to bring the same players who made the team average and worse according to McDavid and Draisaitl bakc?
It is time for Jeff and Stan to earn their salaries.
I don’t post much anymore, mostly because I’d just keep reiterating the same thing, but Bowman has been mostly a disaster.
His biggest mistakes which I had contemporaneously identified were the Jarry trade and not matching Holloway offer sheet.
After that and on par, would be the Walman contract. He played 18:45 minutes per night last season, when healthy and runs $7m for 7 more years while being injury prone.
There’s the inexplicable Frederic contract.
The Podkolzin trade was fabulous, but on the whole, too many bad moves.
The window is closing fast and I don’t see it likely that Bowman can get the job done.
Last season, he spent a good amount more on cap than say a Dubas on the bottom six which was an abject disaster.
The Mangiapane signing was a very expensive mistake.
Not really
Well they shouldn’t but what are the alternatives they can afford?
3C
4C
2 middle 6 wingers
2RD
Starting goaltender
Perhaps Samanski can handle 3C and and Howard can fill a middle 6 spot but that carries risk and doesn’t move the needle much.
My estimate for Murphy and Ingram are likely on the low side as both their current deals came with retained salary while swapping them out is almost certainty cost as much.
Gregor and Spector talking about retooling and whether it works. Conclusion was it can keep you in playoffs but not much more. Teams like the Pens Lightning Hawks drafted themselves to Cups mainly, the Oilers success comes the same. Emerging teams drafted elite players
I agree. The way forward for these Oilers that health willing have years of top playing elites is making the hard choices and choosing Cup runs over keeping the same outer core group that hasn’t got it done
Might be unpopular but they should start moving aging guys, before they have no value. Stupid movement clauses. Bring back younger players or get high first round picks
I expect not much changes for next season, but after that you look at Nurse, then Hyman because he’s less versatile than Nuge, then Nuge. You are selling rep amd experience, and that their contracts are now on the lower end
Or the team will age out. I could stand another rebuild at some point but not before it’s necessary, if it is
Neither of them actually understand this stuff at any deep level, so why would we care what they think? They spout cliches and platitudes and call it analysis.
I can see Dickinson, Dach & Murphy getting re-signed along with Kapanen, possibly Jones but that might be about it. So they’ll have more money to throw at a couple UFA’s which could be good or bad depending on how you look at it.
I wonder if they could move Freddy out via trade?
You might be right but then you have to replace Roslovic, Lazar and Ingram.
Savings will be minimal as the cap spikes.
Replacing Roslovic, Lazar & Ingram wouldn’t be too tall a task.
Change the name and we say this every year, and yet here we are.
I wouldn’t do the first 2, but the rest I hope they do.
What do you suppose a 3C and middle 6 winger would cost under the new cap regime?
As OP says below, those players are already available on the roster. A C job goes to Samanski over Dickinson and a W job goes to Howard over Roslovic, so you save about 5m from your projections. Enough for a decent player, especially if you can move someone out.
Don’t re-sign Dickinson (Nuge plays 3C).
Don’t re-sign Roslovic (Howard takes his minutes)
I don’t think this changes anything – this was right in the range of where it was expected to be.
An additional near 9 million to the cap should open up some trading options.
As Godot has stated, time for Stan and Jeff to earn their salaries and make an impact.
A top flight center or an impact scoring winger.
The Oilers have just over $16 million in cap space but have 6 holes to fill.
As for trades, there are numerous reports that the Oilers tried hard to trade Nurse to Toronto for Nic Roy but Nurse blocked the trade and Roy ended up in the Colorado for a 1st round pick.
What trades would you explore to free up space for a major addition?
He could put together a list of HH’s “greatest of all times”, including Cobourne, Rafferty, Hoglander, etc,
No need to free up cap space for those gems.
That additional $9MM has been known for a while now though – nothin has changed in the last few days. Bowman does not have a bunch of extra cap space he didn’t anticipate having.
I’ve never said he didn’t anticipate having the cap space, it is now fact that he does have the space.
2 of the all time best Oilers have vocally stated nothing is good enough.
Moving Nurse with the cap jump is near 20 million in space, time for impact moves.
Over paying bottom end forwards, bottom pair defenders or Jarry like moves simply can not happen.
Running it back with resigns and a mediocre coach is/will be pathetic.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
NHL officially informs teams of the 2026-27 Salary cap and payroll range:
Floor: $76.9M
Midpoint: $90.4M
Ceiling: $104M
Maximum salary: $20.8M
Now if McDavid wants to stay in EDM for his entire career then this discussion is pointless. But if he wants a move, and TOR is a destination, then the lottery just opened an opportunity. McDavid and Nurse for Matthews, Reilly and the #1 pick. All depends on what Mcdavid wants, and just to be clear, I hope he retires an Oiler.
Both Matthews and Rielly have full NMCs.
Do you think they would want to come to Edmonton?
Toronto would not make that trade in a million years.
I’d do McDavid and Nurse for #1 and Knies. Use the cash to load up.
Plan the parade.
Toronto should see if Utah is interested in Matthews and try getting two of their top prospect forwards (Iginla, Desnoyers, Beaudoin), a top prospect D, and Utah’s 1st.
Frank Seravalli with an interesting take on the Leafs following the draft lottery suggesting they might pass on Gavin McKenna and instead pick Ivar Stenburg to play with Matthews.
Then he thinks (as I do) that San Jose will take the top D prospect with Vancouver landing McKenna.
The Leafs have $22 million in cap space with only Nic Robertson to re-sign so they could be fun to watch.
https://www.hockey247.com/2026/05/06/frank-seravalli-nhl-mock-draft-top-five-gavin-mckenna-ivar-stenberg-mapleleafs
San Jose can dangle the #2 pick for a trade down with Vancouver at #3, Chicago at #4, the Rangers at #5, and Calgary at #6,
e.g. Rangers. Trade down to #5 for Schneider. And then still pick a really high quality D.
Verhoff is perfect for San Jose – exactly what they need.
LT, the chief problem I can see with Chayka (drama in ARI aside) is his relatively poor draft record.
2016 was unquestionably the best season on record. Being freshly hired as GM it’s fair to question how much of the picks are the GM or the scouts.
As you’re correct to point out, a franchise can miss on some first round picks — if they have success finding two players a year from the later rounds.
That drafting record hardly inspires confidence. For all the picks they had available you’d think there would be more success.
The pro scouting is its own post, and isn’t littered with much more than a cautionary tale.
Perhaps his time away from the game has seen him gain perspective. Safe to say the TML organization has a higher level of in-house talent compared to ARI. He’ll have essentially unlimited non-cap funds at his disposal.
It will be interesting to see how things pan out. I don’t see it from here, but will be worth paying attention to. Cards on the table, I hope to see his era crash and burn; not because of Chayka (personally believe in, and love to see a redemption arc play out) but because of the team.
If Knoblauch gets fired, does he get another NHL head coaching job?
They’d hire him in Toronto.
No country for old men…
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/father-time-destroys-stanley-cup-playoff-dreams-average-age-winners-decline-mcdavid-crosby-ovechkin-draisaitl
I too would like Bruce Cassidy hired as the Oilers head coach.
I take credence in what Cobly Cohen said on ON Everyday – that he would be able to get 5% more out of McDavid and Drai – imagine what he can do for the others?
I wouldn’t mind Cassidy. I think the team would play with more structure, be much harder to score against.
My only question – the last coach that came in as a real hard-ass about structure was Hitch (maybe Tippett). Would this team be more inclined to play for Cassidy?
They are desperate for improvement based on exit interviews. I think they would if he sold it properly
Game management. I’ve been thinking about game management and the Oilers. It feels like they are terrible with a lead. They begin to sit back and let the game come to them. It seems like a recipe for disaster. It reminds me of an interview with Panther during the first year they won the cup. I forget who it was, but they said that they play the same no matter the score. It was a throw away line, but it’s huge. I think that is something the Oilers needed to learn instead of game management. If they always play like it’s 0-0, they would check better, pounce on lose picks better, drive the net better, close their gaps faster, etc. They become slaves to emotion when their game changes based on the score. Now sometimes that emotion leads to very exciting comebacks but it’s not a dependable way to win.
I think that was Bennett. Said something like we play our game every game.
All true.
Max Jones did “eat his lunch” and play well but I will note that Jarventie deserved that call-up over Jones, Jones was “meh” in the AHL and Jarventie better. I think Jones was called up based on style more than merit but, 100%, kudos to Jones as he did play well in the NHL and earned his roster spot in real time.
I’m not so sure that Jones is on the team next year – he may want to look for another opportunity with a cleaner path to an every day spot in the NHL – I think he was miffed at how much time he spent in the AHL.
Dach may be eating Jones lunch as well, right?
I’ll hold out hope that Jarventie does re-sign as an RFA and stay – as he did last year after signing in Finland. I think he’s gone this time though.
Dach might eat Frederic’s lunch.
Already has
If they aren’t going to fire the head coach, they need to put him on notice by axing the associate coaches. The PK, PP and defensive game are all suspect, (as is the goals for but I think that is KK) so those coaches need to be booted. The message, imo, needs to be shape up or be shipped out.
I was thinking this group was Knoblauch’s choice, and it was inexperienced and not nearly good enough. Gregor mentioned the hires were late in the window to hire so maybe that played a part
I’m just not feeling it. Not losing your head is good, but there seems to be a lack of urgency and it imprints on the team. A lack of emotion. There’s a balance that’s not being found. I think of Q and how he had the panthers flying before he resigned. The Ducks pushing and playing with that energy now
Maybe KK can do it with different help. I’ll be surprised if much changes other than the players are all healthy and rested so they look better as a team
From what I understand Bruce Cassidy is a task master. Something this Oiler team would seriously need to adjust to. They’re a veteran team, still in their infant stage. Bruce Cassidy would insist their level of maturity rise to a new high. Judging from the exit interviews of McDavid & Draisaitl they might be ready and willing to learn a proven system that surppresses opposition sorties and gets the puck out under control. Which should be welcoming to this organization. The time has come for a change, I sincerely hope they don’t take the easy route and proceed with Knoblauch, because I believe they will plaud anong with more of the same. Knoblauch is a fine coach but too nice a guy to lead this team moving forward.
I suspect the reason people are down on Chayka is he tried to cheat the system to gain an edge, and it cost the Coyotes franchise a first and second round pick.
This had nothing to do with gaining an edge via analytics and everything to with proceeding as if the league rules did not apply to him. People tend to dislike that kind of hubris.
The mistake the Leafs made in their presser imo was not acknowledging the misdeed and expressing contrition for it. They thought they could just skate right past it, and now the perception is the franchise handed the keys to a known cheat without anything in the way of a mea culpa. In short, optics are a thing.
Leafs are lucky they won the draft lottery because it would appear they’re headed down the toilet. I laughed when they hired Treliving.
Total head scratcher for me. And he goes on to lose Marner for nothing basically
Some interesting comments from the Ducks’ Ryan Poehling in Eric Stephens’ article at The Athletic.
Excerpt From
“Ducks face ‘different task’ vs. Golden Knights but know what it takes to rebound in Game 2”
Eric Stephens
The Athletic
Thanks for highlighting this. That should be an embarrassing thing for Oilers braintrust to read.
If the owner and GM and POHO won’t listen to fans and players about the team needing a better coaching staff and systems, maybe the owner and GM and POHO will listen to members of organizations saying things like this to the media.
One more thing… according to Google, the Oilers have a larger group of blueliners:
When I re-read the quote above, it tells me that the Vegas blueline plays more aggressively and punishingly even though the Oilers defencemen are technically larger. This seems to me like another area where coaching could help.
I would think that should be embarrassing for the Oilers players to read.
The GM has put together a blue line that is as big as Vegas.
The players didn’t consistently execute the system that coaches has successfully had them playing for the better part of two years before this one.
The players are the ones who decided not to take the regular season seriously, and then had difficulty consistently ramping up their intensity level and attention to detail in their own zone in the playoffs.
The one thing that I’ll criticize is this:
Vegas and their ruthless GM made the coaching change at the perfect time.
Bowman sat on his hands, when it was obvious that the team had tuned out KK.
Thanks for the response!
I don’t know if I can agree with you. I made my comment assuming that the defensive pairings were executing the coaching staff’s strategies, and that the strategies just weren’t good enough.
I hope you’re wrong, because it’s easier to replace coaching staff compared to replacing 6 defensemen who either gave up on the team or actively tried to ignore the coaching staff’s tactics. :\
The Oilers’ don’t box out gap tight or hit much. Don’t defend the net aggressively like many teams do
They didn’t score any PP goals against VGK. They’re facing better goaltending, plus the Knights got a favorable call to get their go ahead goal. IT WAS JUST GAME ONE. As long as the Ducks don’t give them too much respect they’ll dispense of the Knights and I sure hope they do.
This is why switching goaltenders wont do what some might think. Throw a “better goaltender” in the Oilers net against the Ducks, Oilers still lose the series and many of the goalie haters still roast said goalie.
Lowetide, if you ever have those days where you’re scrambling for subject matter, why not just have an “Open Thread” day? Conversations here take on a life of their own quickly anyway..
My favourite political site just has an open thread beginning daily at midnight, and the owner/author of the site contributes separate column posts as necessary. (They are always great and important.) Sometimes multiple times a day, sometimes nothing for 2 or 3 days. But the open thread is always there, always lively.
— what’s your favourite site? I was a big fan of vox for a long time …
Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Brock Nelson of the Colorado Avalanche and Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens are the three finalists for the 2025-26 Frank J. Selke Trophy, awarded “to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
“If you’re Katz, winning the Stanley Cup is absolutely a goal, but keeping McDavid with the Oilers is a more important one….”
This paragraph. Any and every critique of this team’s success starts here.
Ekholm heading to the World Championships – I’m a bit surprised he’d be willing after the Olympic snub.
To be honest, I’d prefer he didn’t. I’m fine with Bouch and Nurse, they are tireless and neither looked “tired” or “burnt out” this season like some others but Ek, well, he’s not young.
Suisse, not too far from home, might know with the Olympic snub his time as an international player may be coming to a close soon. As you said, not young.
As for rest, if you didn’t go to the gym for 3 months, would it not be more difficult to get back into it?
I think it makes sense and I encourage him to enjoy the experience. Tough physical hockey is much less a thing at the World Championships compared to Playoffs imo. Less about attrition more about single wins.
Agreed, Ekholm should be resting, recovering and training.
I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that he loves playing hockey, and given the chance to represent his country, he’ll go play until he’s forced to retire. We forget sometimes how much these guys are driven by their love of the game, and not everything is a clinical business decision.
@lowetide
i believe the plural for more than one Chad Hinz is Hinz-i
The Oilers brain trust and management is about as effective as their goaltending and defense. We as fans expect too much quality from players, coaches and managers who simply don’t have the ability or capacity to deliver ‘the winning formula.’ Close, but always heartbreak. The competition from other franchises is fierce. Always will be. Connor was the ultimate lottery gift that would have pushed a few other franchises to glory.
Maybe. I’m not so convinced that Oilers management or ownership are significantly better or worse than many other clubs.
McD is doing a great job in Oilerville, fans are buying tickets and merch, owner is getting richer. That smacks of business success.
A lot of folks on here think that this is a game of monopoly where you just hire or fire folks along with their millions of dollars in wages as a move on a board game . The owner just picks up the million dollar tab for what ever is the latest hire him fire him fad by the fans
Im sure he pauses running his billion dollar business around the world every few hours to come on here and check to see what his next decision is to be with the Oilers.
Scream!!!
Breathe? (After screaming)
Yes very deep breaths and then I meditate for a while (-: (-:
I’ve been thinking about some targets that have good draft pedigree but have not been successful to start their careers. This obviously way oversimplifies and misses tons of info, but matches some of the Oilers decent moves in the past few years. Some targets I’ve wondered about are:
-Alex Holtz
-Lukas Reichel
-Isak Rosen
-Cole Sillinger (seems quite unlikely but I really like his game!)
-Brendan Othmann
-Zach Ostapchuk
-Shane Wright (dream on!)
-Joakim Kemell
How about BOTH Knoblauch and Cassidy (in an associate role). We’re all kind of assuming he get a head coaching job, but if he doesn’t could he be enticed on a “Our HC has a rug under him right now that could get pulled” agreement?
And MacT and Todd Nelson!
Isn’t the consensus that Roby just does this as a matter of course, and will be back next year if they’ll have him?
I thought of that, but at some point one suspects he is tired of the AHL tour and wants to play a more humane schedule.
NHL deal only? Between you and key posters on here, he seems to be getting over ripe?
A one-way deal would have absolutely zero impact on anything but for the cheque the owner writes.
This has been a way the Oilers owner has provided an advantage to the team (burying one-way contracts in the AHL, signing players to 2-way deals with LARGE AHL salaries or guaranteed min comp.
If they’re planning on playing the glimmer twins together, they’re targeting a 2C then this summer?
Howard for Austy Matty 1 for 1.
If they’re keeping Knoblauch, who’s chosing his bench this time around the club or the coach? I just can’t see an avenue for success either way.
The NBA Pistons signed a coach to the largest deal ever, bought him out after 1 season and are now the 1 seed. I wouldn’t keep Knoblauch just because he signed a recent deal.
Not our millions to throw around . Most wealthy people are a little less cavalier about their money , I think KK gets until the trade deadline to see if he can get this team back on the rails . Hopefully SB can get him the players he needs to do the job.
The coach needs new systems and philosophies more then he needs new players. His penalty kill is a horror, he is void of the ability to allow lines to develop chemistry, the more he got to put his stamp on everything, the worse it became hand in hand.
So the org is going to pick his bench and tell him how to operate, I don’t see there being success with this.
True but there’s also cost benefit analysis. KK doesn’t make Holland money. A better shot at the Cup has way more dollars in it
— I mean who knows really? Could argue that keeping KK having having him learn and grow is the right thing to do vs blow it up
— too much turnover in coaching in professional sport. Maybe an off season of reflection and analysis and another year of experience he comes back with solutions.
— Schneider was a bum with the jays until they starting winning.
— Darko with the raptors they had some poor seasons and now doing great
— I don’t know what the answer is but getting shiny new things hasn’t worked out yet.
— I’m convinced a good organization would bring someone else in. Was also convinced that they would start this year with Skinner and Pickard.
— I’m convinced the management for Oilers is just meh. Katz wants to win but hasn’t yet surrounded himself with the right lieutenants IMO
“getting shiny new things hasn’t worked out yet.”
This.
Also: I share your view that “fire the coach” is a too-easy (non) solution. My leaning is towards developing a coach within an organization, much as you might develop young players. They’re just another type of talent.
I am on the Martin St. Louis bandwagon. He had zero pro coaching experience and is learning on the job in an intense hockey market. Cooper impresses me; he had limited pro coaching experience and learned on the job w TBL. Bednar, been w COL for ups and downs, currently rolling w an up.
Knoblauch showed his talent and is one of the winningest coaches ever. That talent doesn’t go away, though like goal-scorers and goalies, there are likely ups and downs (“voodoo”) season over season.
— yeah honestly don’t know what the answer is in a results matter most league but good coaches learn and adapt on the job.
— the big takeaway I have from this Jays era was preaching for continuity while always learning and getting better. Clearly that’s what they’ve done: turned over much of the coaching staff assigned to specific roles, clearly use science in their process etc.
— so yeah there are two sides. I just don’t think that if they keep KK it’s because of some elite long term organizational ethos culture and structure. They aren’t doing a deep dive into all aspects of the decision making process using modern sports management theory. It’s just a bunch of duds sitting around in an echo chamber
— They keep KK because of meh IMO. And that might end up being the right decision if KK can learn an adapt and use the institutional knowledge gathered to be better next season. Assuming he’s got the ability to do so and is surrounded by capable associates.
A thought I had after listening to/reading about the “Cassidy is the (new) messiah!”
-Knoblauch gets grief because of perception he isn’t listened to by veteran team/isn’t inspiring/2x SCFs not enough cred/etc etc – so let’s fire and hire Cassidy, a coach who was just fired for… not being listened to by veteran team? incapable of inspiring said team/Cup win not enough cred/etc etc?
Sometimes churn for its own sake works (I’m curious to see how long the new coach bounce carries VGK, and if it translates into longer term success). But if you’re building for long term, multi season success on and off the ice, is it a good strategy? What does a “dynasty” look like in the Cap era? Do Chicago, TBL qualify? Do their approaches to coach/GM stability/churn give guidance?
Well said
Thanks. Just opinionating and wondering in my corner of Oilerville. Mostly wondering about the Chicken Little vibes…
Stauffer musing that the brain trust wants to play McDavid and Draisaitl together is certainly an ominous signpost of doom, that they still know nothing, and have learned nothing.
It really is baffling.
Which is entirely unsurprising.
Does anyone else share the concern that Stauffer is influencing, rather than reporting?
Following the scent over the years…you wonder if there are those around the team who think he knows what to do…which is terrifying, but would explain a lot.
For one – he was thumping Blauchhead’s name long before he ever became coach.
Delaying the inevitable and wasting more precious time by keeping him would be peak stupid. He’s already about a year overdue to be fired into the sun.
My sense is Stauffer is filling air and floating trial balloons to guage the market. But, it is KK (right now) who’s the coach and nothing would surprise me. Those who refuse to learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them.
“We don’t know what we don’t know.” But we continue to fill the air with speculation and righteous indignation, about things we interpret by the eye and by the math (that’s available to us), and sometimes miss the plot: Oilerville is blessed with talent that is highly entertaining, that fuels our amateur hour prognostications, and leaves us wanting to know more.
This is an entertainment business. It is highly profitable. They’re doing many things right.
Stauffer has been on that for a week now but it very well could just be his thoughts as opposed to coming from the braintrust – he’s never intimated its coming from the brain trust.
Stuaffer is a wealth of inside information but he also puts out his opinion and this could just be that.
Great post, go underdogs, thanks LT.
The age-wise doughnut hole in the Oilers’ roster was re-opened in the summer of 2024. It is almost always fatal, as the narrow path between the Scylla of aging veterans and the Charybdis of unproven youth usually sinks a team.
As for Chayka, Bowman and Quenneville did a far worse thing than Chayka ever did. Lamorello bent every rule in the book. Zito, Brisebois, Bowman, and MacCrimmon all used LTIR for cap circumvention to win cups. Dean Lombardi was allowed to escape the Mike Richards contract. Sam Pollock wrote the actual rules to help himself, and screw everyone else. All materially helping them win Stanley Cups.
Chayka is just a more extreme case of Kevyn Adams. They hate on the guys who did not “earn it”, and pay their dues. Many of the analytics folks hate him for this reason to, since many thought they were more deserving, and Chayka effing up in Arizona, was a setback for most of them.
Are they witches? Do they weigh more than a duck?
My greatest concern going into this summer is that last year (and the year before) there appeared to be a disconnect between the coach and GM. GM acquires assets for a purpose, coach does not use them in that fashion.
KK has his red flags with not changing systems and stubbornly sticking to things that are not working (PK, stretch pass, etc). You can say he did that because he felt the players would figure it out, or because he couldn’t figure out anything else with what he had.
But this is a crucial summer. I would be inclined towards hiring Cassidy, but one of the red flags on him is that he too favors vets over rookies and I’d worry about the development of younger players under his watch.
Bowman trading for Jarventie, got something for nothing. Jarventie then NHL ready, but not getting a run to see what they had. That’s pure stupidity.
And both McDavid and Draisatl have called Knoblauch out. They can’t really run Knoblauch back at this point.
Bowman does have some good moves in addition to stinkers – as all GM’s do. KK has done some good things as well.
I’d say McDrai have called out both the coach and the GM, it’s not one or the other. I think the GM shares in the responsibility for where the team is because he’s not built a roster the coach is willing to use in a way that he intended. That has to be fixed.
I liked Frank Seravellis answer when Stauffer asked him who’s to blame. He said it was 60% management, 25% coaching, and 15% on the players. That sounds about right to me.
I think even the Oilers most optimistic fans would have to admit the talent level has dropped significantly since spring of 24. And that’s on Jackson and Bowman.
So, they’ll run back the same coach, GM and POHO and expect a different result when – I agree – 97 and 29 called all these parts out? Silly meets gross stupidity, and the owner – who I’ve said numerous times is an incredible businessman – deserves what he gets and it won’t be a Stanley Cup
Bowman added a lot at the deadline, a lot of what was missing. If they had been able to play everyone it would have looked a lot different. We never got to see the finished product
It does seem like there was a disconnect and, if so, one would think the head coach would not be back for next season – we shall find out, I guess.
Perhaps but, just because we don’t see it when watching games, does not mean there aren’t adjustments being made, right? We know they made material changes to their defensive structure post-Olympics (which seemed to work in the regular season) for example.
hiring Knoblauch in Year 9 of McDavid was an insane move in a lot of ways. I’ve never been fully behind him but can’t argue with 2 Cup finals and 1 goal short of a Cup.
We complain about the same old tired heads always being picked but then teams get burned for thinking outside the box.
I guess for the Leafs out of all the options, you’re picking a guy who didn’t have success, was suspended by the league, and hasn’t worked in 6 years or whatever.
Time will tell, but the optics are questionable.
Solid comments 👍
Keep trying the same things maybe it’ll work eventually.
Or it won’t.
Except if it’s known not to work. Signing old, safe, proven, bottom 6 forwards even at a discount doesn’t work and still won’t.