Yesterday’s comments section allowed me to realize my view of this team doesn’t rhyme with some of you. Specifically, we don’t agree on what this team needs. So, let’s talk about it.
The goaltending gets plenty of conversation but Connor Ingram’s five-on-five save percentage with Edmonton was .901. You can go get an upgrade, Filip Gustavsson was .914 for the Minnesota Wild and is no longer the starter (I think). The problem is Gustavsson may also struggle in front of this Oilers defense, not because of the quality of the defense but rather the style of play.
I am a fan of the Oilers defense. Mattias Ekholm with Evan Bouchard is top drawer, although Ekholm tires or is injured by springtime every year. Darnell Nurse with Connor Murphy was effective in the postseason (7-2 goals at five-on-five).
Nurse is so durable, and with Ekholm’s age and spring fades, trading Nurse would have to be followed by adding a durable top-four defenseman. Not many available. Jake Walman with Ty Emberson went 4-2 goals at five-on-five against Anaheim in the recent playoff series. I’ll take it.
Spencer Stastney can defend and penalty kill, something this team needs. Alec Regula isn’t popular in these parts, but he’s big, strong, righthanded and can move the puck. Maybe he can’t play in the NHL and flourish, but I’d like to get a long look at a healthy Regula ramping up at the same time as everyone else this fall.
The work needs to be done up front. The Oilers have to keep preparing for the fading of veterans like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. I would run Hyman and Matt Savoie with Connor McDavid. Leon Draisaitl could go to war with Vasily Podkolzin and a signed Kasperi Kapanen. The third line could be Nuge with Ike Howard and a veteran who can move the needle offensively. That’s an acquisition that should be a priority. I also think Roby Jarventie could eventually slide into this role, but he needs to grab an NHL job first.
After that, I would run Colton Dach and Trent Frederic with Josh Samanski on a fourth line that has already proven they can drive opponents to distraction.
Names in the mix among forwards not mentioned above: Mattias Janmark, Owen Michaels, Max Jones, Quinn Hutson, James Hamblin. You do need some PK men, so that has to be figured out. Jason Gregor was on the Lowdown yesterday and suggested Nuge could play third line minutes five-on-five while also remaining key to both special teams. I like that solution.
It’s a weird year. You can trade Nurse but there isn’t much to spend the savings on, so then it becomes my overpriced contract for yours. I expressed my opinions on the matter earlier this week. I know you want change, but this is the place where mistakes are made. Seriously.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the round table with the young minds raining down verbal blows on me in rapier fashion. I will bring my stories, failing memory and an uncanny ability to “old man” young people. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
If McKenna is leading the Leafs (and convinces Matthews to stay), then McDavid doesn’t go to the Leafs. That removes the most obvious potential suitor for McDavid. So I’m fine with the Leafs winning the lottery.
Personally, i’m happy the leafs got it. No team deserves treveling part deux.
Like sure, booing marner out of barn deserves a lesson but i fear the fair weather oiler fans will get a similar discard if they don’t smarten up.
I went to a few games this year and the sense of entitlement as far as boo birding players when team slumpibg is crazy to me.
Like all of us old enough to have favourite oilers no one has ever heard of in the period where we constantly cheered for both
1. The new sack of magic beans we had recieved in exchange for the best gu6s we had who saddly achieved status of “requires new too expensive contract”
2. The homecoming of our last fan crush favourite player on another team. Like happy he got paid that money.
Entitled in a way i think actually works against team in slump breaking. Muther funkers act like they forget about “before mcdrai”.
But yeah leafs hopefully fully commit to actual rebuild here. Mcdavid isn’t the answer to how long can that blueline hold up competitive? Neither is matthews.
I’d be shocked if Austin didn’t end up in Utah as a UFA if it’s a longer deal. With the money he has made i could see him taking a 1 year on contender firsr stop. Like the time to do tbat move is when still higher end of league type player if a star really wants to stand best chance of adding a atanley.
I could honestly see mcdavid do the same thing. Like there is at lesst a 98% chance there is another contract after signing a short enoigh deal. After extended tenure as face of a rabid market franchise be nice to just have a break with literally no commitments to community or anything.
I will cheer for him. Just like i don’t boo them even when they are playing like shit. I’ve never seen a player play as effective as drsi did with one leg clearly broken. I have zero doubt those guys are champions just missing pieces
Because we have come a long ways from when i was a kid who had constantly changing fsvourites liks matts lingren surely being the perfect 3rd line 200 ft centerman and brian glynn surely being the booming slap shot the pp needed.
NBA is moving to a system that gives the bottom 3 teams a a worse chance then the 4th through 10th worst teams, to discourage tanking.
4-10 worst all have equal odds (3 balls) then the 9-10 play in seeds and the bottom three seeds have the next best odds (2 balls) followed by playoff teams (1ball).
Can’t land #1 twice ina row, or top five 3 times in a row.
This is the “Oilers Rule” on steroids
NBA teams have been shamelessly tanking for high picks .. “play-in for what”.
The Oilers were shamelessly trying to ice a playoff team, but stumbled and bumbled their way to consecutive first overalls … problem was, while Hall and Nuge became very good players, neither of them were good enough to turn the fortunes of the team around.
Yakupov was taken in a draft that is historically one of the weakest in as long as the Oilers have been a team in the NHL. He’s one of the greatest draft busts of all time, but its not like the next 4 guys picked after him became HOFs.
They finally hit pay dirt when they drafted McDavid, and the Eastern media folks and butt hurt Leaf’s fans were so mad about it that the league adopted the “Oilers rule”.
Well they finally get a chance to draft their own McJesus.
Craig Button’s post-lottery mock draft.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/article/buttons-mock-draft-maple-leafs-win-draft-lottery-take-mckenna-at-no-1/
Jarventie signs with a Swiss team.
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-prospect-roby-jarventie-signs-contract-swiss-league
Had the chance to draft a legit #1 goalie. Instead traded down for a soft forward from the Q, who got traded for an injury prone Finn, who decided to take his ball annd go home, and some German kid who never had a chance.
One of the top 5 worst draft decisions in Oilers history.
I remember some posters here being delighted that Wallstedt was struggling in the A, as if to justify the Oilers passing on him.
I absolutely hated that pick. They had a chance to draft a goalie with top 10 talent, who fell to them only because Detroit selected Cossa; but they turned their nose up at Wallstedt cause he wasn’t their guy. The mental gymnastics that people performed to justify trading down when manna from heaven literally dropped into their laps was gross.
I know we were big winners of the draft lottery but the league really should prevent teams from having top picks in multiple consecutive seasons.
Limits on winning the NHL draft lottery, implemented to deter tanking, restrict teams to a maximum of two lottery wins in a five-year period.
AKA -The Oiler Rule.
Ya, cause the Oilers have been the only ones to benefit from sucking for years in a row. No shame in your game.
The Edmonton Oilers won the NHL Draft Lottery four times in their history. During a dominant six-year span, they secured the first overall pick in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2015.
New Jersey won the lottery 3 times in 2017, 2019 and 2020.
They’re the only 2 teams that would have been affected by the change in lottery rules.
Disingenuous at best. Your M.O.
This “rule” hasn’t stopped teams from tanking.
This rule would have rewarded Buffalo for downright tanking in a year where Edmonton was ironically trying not to. Their final points moved their odds down, and they won from that “worse” spot.
Not all 1 OV are equal, as we all know.
Buffalo has been the beneficiary of an insane amount of first round picks for many years. Thats how Anaheim and SJ have rebuilt, and you see no problem there with your DSF goggles
The Oilers “win” may have precipitated the rule, but the Oilers weren’t trying to game the system that year, it was Buffalo, who this rule would have rewarded for icing an AHL team in hopes of getting McDavid.
As usual, your takes are straight up dinkish
If we’re splitting hairs here, New Jersey actually won the 2011 lottery as well, but the rules at the time allowed them to jump only 4 spots, from 8th to 4th, and they selected Adam Larsson
The league started tweaking to lottery rules after the Yakupov draft and the Oilers still won the McDavid draft LoL
Nah. Straight open lottery with no odds or positions. Totally random. Don’t reward failure. Don’t punish success.
Schaefer, Demidov and Sennecke the Calder Trophy finalists.
TO wins the draft lottery?!?! Noooooo
At least it wasn’t Florida.
San José gets to draft a top defenseman
Exactly what they needed.
San Jose now picking second.
Smith-Celebrini-X
Stenberg-Misa-X
What a stacked Top-6. Sharks are going to be a big problem in 2 years.
Nevermind the Ducks, San Jose is going to be a powerhouse.
The Oilers really have a 2-3 year window now.
You all assume Anaheim and SJS are going to win the cup, on what basis?
Remember the hopes and dreams of repeated first round picks well.
The only difference now is that draft picks’ only hold extreme value on their first contracts.
There is a cognitive dissonance required to believe the Oilers will never win a cup with its current players, 3 of whom are consistently ranked in the top 50 (and 2 in the top 10), yet believe a bunch of plucky 1st rounders of lower caliber will definitely bring home glory. With Dostal as a starter?
Odds are the Ducks and Sharks do not win Stanley, now or in the near future. Jumbo Joe’s iteration was stellar across the board and won the WC once.
Yup, some here are acting like one good season is the golden ticket to Lord Stanley.
Vancouver can’t even tank properly.
Tsk tsk.
According to TSN their outgoing firsts for the next two seasons are somehow messed up and it will require a league ruling. Sounds typical
The most impactful trade in Oilers history was the Gretzky trade, for all the wrong reasons.
The best trade in Oilers history was Glen Sather’s masterstroke after the Gretzky trade/sale. Jimmy Carson, Kevin McLelland, and a 5th round pick for Joe Murphy, Adam Graves, Petr Klima, and Jeff Sharples. Cup #5 was the direct result of this bold move.
If you’re following along at home, Joe Murphy became a playmaking 2C (82 points in 92), Gravey became a prototypical power forward ( unfortunately most of it with the Rangers where he topped the 50 goal plateau), Klima scored the most dramatic OT goal in Oilers history and rocked a mullet and a pair of acid washed jeans like nobody’s business, and Jeff Sharples had a cool name.
THIS is the kind of bold move needed to change the fortunes of the current Oilers core. So, who you ask is the Carsonesque centerpiece that could command such a King’s ransom in return? Who is this player with a brilliant albeit one dimensional offensive game with defensive warts ala Jimmy Carson? Who is this mystery Oiler with an eminently tradeable contract playing the type of position that could return 3 viable roster stars? Why the answer is obvious, it’s Evan Bouchard.
Not sure I agree with your bold move suggestion but I do remember this trade and the kid line that made a massive impact on the 90 cup win, although Billy Ranford likely stole that cup with his play, especially in the final round.
I also remember the league screwing us with the compensation for the Ranger offer sheet on Graves. We got Troy Mallette back. Troy who? Exactly. Graves became a beloved and impactful Ranger for years and Mallette became quickly forgotten.
Here’s one example of what a Slats type bold move trade involving Evan Bouchard might look like:
IN
LW Jake Neighbours 3.75M
RW Jimmy Snuggerud .950k
D Colton Parayko 6.5M
G Joel Hofer 3.4M
TOTAL 14.6M
OUT
D Evan Bouchard 10.5M
W Trent Frederic 3.85M
TOTAL 14.3M
Blues get the best player in the trade and a potential power forward needing a change of venue. Oilers get a young potential starting G, a rock sold top pairing defenceman, and two young scoring forwards.
Trade resets the Oilers roster immediately injecting much needed youth, depth scoring, defensive responsibility, contract efficiency, and solid goaltending.
Slats traded Coffey and won two more Cups. And now he does it again. Bold moves!
Does losing Bouchard hurt? Undoubtedly but you have to give to get, and you’re also trading Bouchard’s defensive lapses for Parayko’s consistency. Over time, savvy Oiler fans would see the value of that exchange. One dimensional offensive defenceman are a luxury. A roster with depth, youth, and growth potential is a necessity.
I think that trade is on par with the Jarry trade and would most assuredly result in the firing of Bowman almost immediately!
The Blues would NEVER do that trade.
Hofer is the #1G. Snuggerud, finishing his first complete season, is the #1RW. Neighbours wears an A, and probably 2nd in line to be the new captain of the Blues (Thomas will probably get the C).
Lindstein looked like a top 4D out of the box as a 20 year-old playing beside Parayko after the trade deadline.
The Blues top prospect not in the NHL is a RD in Adam Jiricek who is an all tool. defenseman. Justin Carbonneau is a goal scoring power forward in waiting.
Broberg was able to carry Mailleux on the top pair after the trade deadlime.
Broberg Mailleux(2)
Lindstein(R) Parayko
Fowler Jiricek(R)
Tucker, Kessel.
Hofer, Binnington (The Blues will be content to have two #1G next year with such a young team in front of them, unless Binnington asks out).
Holloway, Thomas, Snuggerud(2)
Neighbours, Dvorsky(2), Kyrou
Buchnevich, Suter, Drouin
Toropchenko, Finley, Carbonneau(R)
Stenberg(2), Walker, Berggren
(R) will be a rookie next year
(2) will be a 2nd year player next year.
All they want is a legit young 2C.
Interesting to see the polar opposite reactions to this hypothetical trade proposal. For one poster, the trade is so bad for the Oilers, it’s a fireable offense for the GM. For another, it’s so good for the Oilers, the Blues would never go for it.
Fwiw I tend to lean towards the latter view. It is a highway robbery trade for the Oilers and St Loo likely would pass BUT it does have the element that a lot of truly lopsided trades in NHL history possess, it involves a very talented and famous player, a white whale.
Bouchard is not the kind of player you can typically trade for in his prime. You either draft them or overpay for them in free agency when they’ve already given their best to their draft club. NHL GMs have been known to do some pretty stupid things in the past to acquire such a player.
In addition, Bouchard is a famous marquee name that can sell tickets. St Louis is decidedly bereft of such a player/talent and they’re desperate to get a difference maker to improve quickly. They shopped Robert Thomas hard at the deadline but the asking price was too high. That doesn’t speak to a team that thinks it’s close.
St Louis has a lot of nice pieces but they don’t have a STAR. Could a hypothetical Slats cut this deal? I think he could.
Bouchard is also pre-prime.
For a d-man, 28-32 remains prime (as far as overall game).
The Blues are pretty much pot committed to their rebuild/retool. They are not an Evan Bouchard away from contending the Central division. They would gut their entire rebuild in that trade. They are targeting a couple of years out now as Colorado, Dallas, and MInny will begin to age out.
They have redundancy in most parts of their rebuild except at centre, and maybe in goal depending on whether Binnington is content to be a backup, going forward.
The Bouchard deal that they would do for Buchnevich and Kyrou and Mailleux, or Bouchard for Kyrou and Parayko.
So who is Carson supposed to be in this proposed deal with the Blues?
See the first post
Ah I see – you’re talking about the second Carson trade.
Anytime you are trading an elite talent for a platter of prospects and picks, its a risk.
Sometimes it works out really well – aka the second Carson trade, the Erik Karlsson trade from Ottawa to SJ, the Yashin deal to NYI.
But the adage of the team that got the best players wins the deal usually holds true – for instance, the first Carson trade, the Pronger trade, Thornton to SJ etc.
Bouchard has his warts but he’s one the very best D-men in the league; we’ve waited an eternity for a RHD like him, so there is no way that trading him makes sense.
Your answer is actually trading conor to load up and win now
sounds like running back this team is the consensus pick. trying to get to playoffs healthy is a big concern; getting samanski and Howard up to speed and in roles will be key
Mcdavid and Drai swipe the occasion rest / load management would be good … or no crazy minutes
MacT talking to Gregor says be careful getting guys off good teams because the team can hide weaknesses, and don’t penalize guys from bad teams because they are probably better than it seems, if you think there’s a player there
Everyone on the Avs seems like the best at their position in the league. Kulak is playing 2D, where he could never stay good enough at it on the Oilers. My point being there is more to get out of the players they have if they can sort things out behind the bench. We’ve seen it. If they keep them all it’s still a strong team with 3 elite players
LT, I am not sure if I heard if you think it should be Cassidy over KK?
I have heard your views on personnel (and for most part, agreed), but wondering where you land and why
O’Reilly with MVP honors in the OHL. I know, I know, it means nothing…
Sure hope Howard makes the team next year!!
I was high on him as a RS C. But, draft plus 2 had 29 G 71 pts in 56 GP. That isn’t great in terms of NHL success, he’s probably shy offensively
21st in Pts, 17th in PPG, 50th in plus minus.
Quality of team matters for sure but either this is a down year for the OHL or this is a troll job (or both!) It’s moot but Jake Obrien, Cole Beaudoin, Aitcheson, hell Hrebek the goalie for Barrie 43 games 0.920 on the OHL final team could all reasonably be ahead. Guess we’ll have to settle for a Hobey Baker winner.
Congrats to the kid, don’t want to diminish that just my salty conspiracy ass thinks this is a bit…..meh.
The blowback the Chayka hiring is getting from the TO media is impressive. One wonders how long the OBC would have lasted in Edmonton under this kind of scrutiny.
— the presser also had the type of hard questions that I don’t read about in Edmonton
— pelley hung them to dry too IMO.
— perhaps is expectation setting. They are not saying “it’s cup time” at least.
There was certainly mixed reaction to the Bowman hiring in these parts, but the principles here understood that past actions would need to be acknowledged and addressed at the time of his hiring, and they did so.
Pelley seemed to think they could skate right past Chayka’s suspension with a wink and a nod. Clueless. Don’t know who’s handling media relations for MLSE but they certainly didn’t prep the big boys properly for yesterday’s presser. Amateur hour.
Pelly is awful behind a camera, not sure why he was even there. People are projecting CEO hatred on him a bit but he also didn’t answer any questions as basic as what the hell Mats does.
They are making many decisions about things other than winning (and laying off half their workforce).
The contrast between the Mehta press conference and the Chayka one was stark.
There are only 2 teams that were in the second round last season that have made it to the second round this season.
Look at what Vegas and Colorado and Tampa, legit contenders, have done in the playoffs the last number of years – very little.
An experienced team losing in the first round does not mean they are starting a trajectory down.
For sure, and why did many of those teams not go far, and the panthers this season? Too injured or missing key players. Tampa going out early is often related to Hedman and Point’s health, this year Hedman couldn’t help again
Which is why Brisebois I think isn’t keen on a coaching change. I don’t think Cooper has gone stale, and I read a piece on him where he talks about working to keep things as fresh as possible for everyone. Won’t last forever, but who is clearly better?
I will say the Avs success before followed changes the GM made, the gap because they lacked depth, now back after more changes. I hope Stan makes some good ones
The Avalanche hit a cap crunch after winning the cup forcing them to retool the roster.
Once the looming Rantanen mega extension was dealt with they needed to rebuild their centre depth which they did with the acquisition of Brock Nelson and Jack Drury.
The Rantanen disposition also netted them Martin Necas while they also benefited from the return of Landeskog and didn’t have to deal with his cap hit drag while on LTIR.
Now that Kadri has returned, their centre depth is unparalleled.
A health Jake Walman is a legit top 4 dman, and a good one. I look forward to him being much better next season.
Totally. People trading him after a down year are the same people who wanted to trade Kulak, etc. Unless the management has insight that we don’t, there is a reason to suspect this wasn’t Walman’s usual level of play, just as it wasn’t Kulak’s, and Gord help us, isn’t Jarry’s.
How much salary retention are we going for, here? How much value do you get from that?
Is Walman traded with 50% retention, then signing a 3 million dollar D man, not a worse bet? How likely is that Dman coming back going to fill a top 4 role, when we know Walman has done the job?
To borrow LT’s analogy, you don’t trade 6’s for 5’s when those 6’s may return to being 10’s and Jacks.
The only concern with Walman is he gets hurt a lot. In the last 4 seasons where he had established full time 53, 65, 63, 63 GP
“People trading him after a down year are the same people who wanted to trade Kulak, etc.”
I don’t know how true that is. I wanted to keep Kulak, and remain nervous about keeping Walman for his $7 x 7 contract. I can’t be the only one.
The idea of mortgaging future picks and retaining on players who had off years and assuming it is age related decline is a common theme around here. It’s not specific to those 2 specific players.
Couldn’t possibly be coaching or injuries, right?
Taylor Hall could be a 34 year old Conn Smythe winner. But Hyman is washed and so is RNH? Jarry can’t recover? This is the kind of thinking that we pay dearly for.
Walman cost a 1st and committed long term and can be a part of the solution. And some think trading him at low value is wise.
You are not
We will believe it when we see it.
Walman has only been a top 4D on bad hockey teams, where there was no pressure or expectation.
and a team that was in the SCF, of course.
as far as “pressure” goes, well, he was the Oilers 2nd best d-man in last year’s playoffs and their best d-man in this year’s playoffs
Bob continues to talk about playing McDavid and Drai together going forward as it gets more players involved.
For me, is it not easier to get more players involved by splitting them and turning 4 wingers in to top 6 wingers. Just play those two lines 60-90 seconds less at 5 on 5.
The problem with doing that is they don’t have a good enough 2C. Also not a 3C at the moment, and it’s uncertain Dickie can drive enough offense
Maybe a new coach could get Nuge to perform at 2C, but his 5v5 has never been his forte outside of one season
“Bob continues to talk about playing McDavid and Drai together going forward as it gets more players involved.”
Wasn’t this the verbal during the 2025 training camp? And what did we see? Coach played McDrai together by default and then ran them way too many minutes.
It didn’t work last fall and I don’t think that should be the plan moving forward. But Bob is a mouth piece for the organization, so if this is what he’s floating, I think we’re getting another season of Coach K.
— yeah that’s horseshit Bob is parroting
— 10 years it hasn’t worked.
— gives good insight into what Oil management has been all about.
What management? Valid points, and I like Bob sigh
Stauff was on 100% hockey.
He thinks Bouch was far from 100% after getting rocked in game – he is going to the Worlds so must be ok, at least now.
Thinks they need to make a decision on Ingram but he isn’t so sure they should not go outside the org and look for an org with depth of young goalies – I’m pretty sure he was talking about Detroit without saying it.
Yes he’s all over Cossa
And Cossa would be a great add – he’d be on the team (he’s no loner waivers exempt) but his AHL numbers lead one to believe he is ready.
I do not think that Issac Howard is enough to get that done – I believe the Wings plan on having him as 2G with Gibson. Trey A. is just turning pro – he could be a couple of years away (if ever, you never know).
The only thing the Oilers have to trade for Cossa is Podkolzin and Samanski. It would probably take both.
I wonder if Bowman had an opportunity to make a trade for Bobby McMann. Before he got traded, did Edmonton have a chance to match or beat a 2nd and a 4th? Anyhow, I hope they can sign McMann this summer. I’m not sure how much he’ll be getting, but I think he’d be worth it. He’s a perfect fit. Fast, big, 29 goals this year. I agree that there aren’t many upgrades out there for our goalies. A trade might be the only way, and that scares me. I’d bring back Kapanen, Dickinson, and Roslovic as long as the cap hit isn’t too big. I wouldn’t trade Nurse, I’d trade Ekholm as I think he might be about to drop off in a big way soon.
I was thinking about McMann this morning. I was wondering if there was a possible McMann and Laughton deal being negotiated. With Mangi and a 1st going to Toronto. That it ultimately fell thru because Treliving was demanding more or not taking mangi? and Stan decided to do the Dickinson, Dach. If I remember right, the Toronto guys went late deadline day.
Just a guess on my part but would make sense right?
Thanks for the opening salvo LT. I thought I was going to step away for the summer but sense they’re going to run the management and coaching back.i have to scream. No you can’t do this 🙂 Sure hope I’m wrong.
Jackson, Bowman and the entire coaching staff needs to be replaced. They can’t be trusted to make next year any better than this year. If they run the same crew back, I’m asking for a trade if I was both 97 and 29, and maybe even 2. Crucify me if you’d like but tell me how in heavens name you can trust any of these parts to forge a new path.
These “famous” people seem to have no clue what the pulse of the team is – especially Jackson and Bowman – and didn’t bother to check during the past two years, except for relying on 97 and 29, and we know anyone off the street can do that, so let’s get people in here with innovative and forward thinking
I don’t pretend to know who these new names are. But it’s a pathetic excuse to just run them back because at least we know what they are. Mediocre/bad at their job at best.
Oh yah, a blue chip company would do a thorough beating of the bushes to find these new folks. Maybe that’s what the owner is doing. He’s a darn smart guy who has the stones to make these changes
— I flew to game 7 in Florida to watch Oil lose Cip 2 years ago. Partly because one of my mantras is “do things and be the kind of man that the 12 year old you would hope to do and grow up to be like”
— gone on a road trip to Buffalo with one of my boys to see a game as well.
— In the last 10 years though I’ve probably watched live TV games maybe a dozen times )well TV on but stuff going on in background)
— without this blog my interest in the Oil would have gone. I’ve enjoyed learning the stats sharing my options (and dumb hot takes) and reading others.
— Some of LTs prose is truly stunning and he always has kept us engaged with content.
— thanks LT: the 12 year old in me would find it neat that I participate in this wondrous blog.
— Being a grown man with big family and big job I’m grateful for this outlet : a few posts ago someone referred to the vices give up and the ones we hold
— anyway carry on.
+1 — don’t think I would follow the Oilers without LT, at least not in the regular season.
The Oilers have plenty of good penalty killers.
What’s the difference between the team with best PK results vs the worst results?
The players are not drafted because of PK ability. The PK is built from good but lesser players who will take on that role. And it can be learned.
You don’t go a get penalty killers. You coach the ones you have assigned to the role.
They must be willing to block shots and sacrifice.
Coach decides aggressive or passive in d zone.
Why would you use McDavid? Cause he needs ice time? Silly.
Cause he blocks shots? Gets in lanes? Or is it your believe it’s just about interrupting lanes, taking sticks away?
Reason you put McDavid on the PK is because you don’t respect it, nor the job those guys are doing for you.
McDavid not out there to block shots, why should I? You can’t build roles and a team like this.
Facing a high skilled power play, playing a passive system is the easiest way to get scored on. Wake up coach.
100% agree the system was absolutely horrendous. If you’re going to be passive, you better be blocking EVERYTHING and tying up sticks, which is NOT the strong suit of this team.
The PK is where bot6 guys gain confidence that they can play and contribute in the NHL and feel part of it. KK took that way this year, and i question at times the leadership of guys like 97 who are taking PK reps from people, for no great reason.
YOu’re gonna need this guy fresh for the spring…pull back a bit on the reins in the regular season man.
Our entire defensive system is incredibly passive. Even 5 on 5. They may have 1 on 2 and they will freely give up the blue line. They need to get a lot more aggressive on preventing zone entries especially when they have numbers back. The quickest way to generate a quick break scoring chance is to cause turnovers.
There’s a reason none of the top teams play a passive style. You give almost any NHL player time and space and they will hurt you. Which is probably why 4th lines score so much on the Oilers
Its like buying a thoroughbred and using it to plow your field. Why in the world would you put Mcdavid on the PK
Hah! And we need a coach to say shut up and sit down if the thoroughbred wants to plow.
💯 — unless it is for extreme niche cases. Like, 10 seconds left on the PK or face-off in the O-zone while on the PK.
I just checked – McDavid had 2 shorthanded points this season. That’s it. So any argument that he’s driving offence shorthanded fails – so why on (insert your god)’s green earth would you have him pk and take on those extra minutes? Particularly in a year where he’s gone to the Olympics and 4 Nations.
If the answer is “because he wants to” that’s just another reason why you need a different coach.
The injury risk is too high for me
I agree with your assesment. If you could return that D corp healthy, that’s a very solid 7 players and Nurse’s biggest ability may just be his avail-ability as you indicate.
May have to ride out the tending and fix in season.
Realistically, the tending was terrible all season, wtih multiple goalies, which tells me it’s NOT all the goalies.
The only time in season they looked decent for long stretches was in December, and that was the 1 month the team actually pulled it together, played tight checking team defence and got results.
They then un-puckered, figured they could coast and fell asleep in 2nd week of January….that stretch in December they looked like a real hockey team, Connor was on an absolute heater and everyone shined like a diamond.
I think this team needs 2 scoring lines and get a true bot6. you can’t have 2 small guys on the ice in your bot6. Ideally all of them are fast, and most of them are abrasive.
PK should come from bot6, so if you are not in bot6, and you don’t PK, you better not make more than 1.5M, so I don’t know what that means for Frederic.
Look around at Vegas, Ana etc at their current Playoff 4th lines for what you need there.
3rd Line could be Nuge, Dickinson and a hard to play against prick on the other wing (Samanski needs to grow into that role if he wants to stick) .
4th could be any combination of Dach, Clattenburg, Jones, Lazar and maybe Frederic if the rocket launcher to the sun breaks and we’re stuck with him.
This team cannot play all of Savoie and Howard both if neither is a contributing member of top 6. Same goes for a guy like Hutson. Trade bait in my opinion.
I really can’t see how we are giving Coach KK another year if we are saying the main issues are:
If the counterpoint is that Coach KK hasn’t had the right roster or goaltending, then we need to change those. I just don’t see how changing a player or two (unless they are major changes) fixes this team. Injuries weren’t THAT big of a factor until end of year
Im out on Knoblauch.
There is always deficiencies. Coach has to make it work, and he had lots to work with. So much so that they ended up covering mistakes and poor systems. Till they couldn’t anymore.
Oops posted something along these lines above. For me, you must include Jackson and Bowman in the category of not giving them another year. Sorry to beat the drum harder, my point is made….their collective effort, when the rubber has hit the road, has been underwhelming to say the least. And no, trading for Podz, and some “finds” like Samanski etc, doesn’t undo the mishaps along the way. Don’t double down on mistake hires, or at least that’s what a well run company would do, it would show poor hires the door. JMO
Oilers are listed as 4th fastest NHL team according to math? I believe this is true or close at least.
something is wrong with the math. McDavid at speed, Roslovic, Savoie, Kapanen must be skewing the numbers.
Because I just watched a fast Ducks team. The Ducks ARE the Oilers a few years back, or similar anyway.
But the speed was all about pressure and quickness. Feet always moving.
I noted so many times the Oilers in both zones, 5 out of 5 players were not moving their feet. Just gliding. No hurry, no pressure.
Point being, don’t let averaged out speed fool you. Oilers need to get faster on pucks.
Since Oil do have some speed, it’s not all about roster. It’s about application.
Playing with pace has long been a Coach Q mantra.
The young Ducks are still learning but showing great promise.
There was for sure more standing around and passive play vs. aggressive forechecking this year by the Oilers in the playoffs. Magic question: was that coaching or fatigue?
In any case, it does feel like KK has emptied his bag of tricks as there were some head scratching decisions. Exhibit A: it took 70+ games to find a 4th line of Dach, Samanski & Fredric (with Freddy playing his best hockey as an Oiler), and then he broke them up in the playoffs – just one of many counterintuitive moves
I think they have enough on this roster outside of 3C to be as good as any team. Dickinson is fine, if you get him the right winger or two to play his game, and play with a better plan as a team
But Bowman should always be looking for players with enough skill, speed, size and attitude. Because that is how their direct opponents are shaping up. I think he’s gone in that direction, needs to stay there
The panthers will be back to normal next season and if the Oilers have aspirations they need to be able to take that team on because they will likely be the team to beat in the east again come playoff time
There is absolutely no way I would trade Nurse.
Nurse and Murphy were excellent. Tough, dependable, fast, durable. He is needed. Ekholm is close to being bumped down or injured. Walman was awful in regular season.
problem with Nurse is problem with the team.
Why doesn’t he hold the blue line? Why don’t any of them hold the blue line?
Why can’t Nurse find an open man for outlet pass? Why can’t any of them?
Why can’t Nurse take out his man in front? Why can’t any of them?
Im fond of saying change the coaching, which is different than change the coach, My point being much of defence problems come from coaching beliefs. Not protecting the front of your net is ridiculous. So many goals went in due to defections and rebounds. They want to be quick up puck movers. Dont get entangled. It’s not working and too stubborn to change.
Drai recently named several players he felt they missed and stepped back when replacing them.
Core of team believes Nurse is important and they know.
Place Nurse into a differently structured defence system and he thrives. Trade him and it’s very unlikely you can replace him.
Bowman’s issue with adding is cap space. With Janmark and Frederic in the bottom six you pretty much have to put someone on LTIR to promote a prospect. I hope Sami,Dach and Fredi can progress to a 3rd line shutdown trio so RNH can play with rookies on a 4th. An issue I see is players in Bakersfield who project as bottom six here must be prepared to PK. Except for Savoie all our PKers are over 30
If none of you 4th line can PK that’s a problem
Bowman put himself in this position. Jarry, Frederick, Walman… apart from restocking the cupboards and McD/Podz, it’s been an ugly run of contracts and trades.
I do not trust him to fix the lineup issues.
I do not either. I think he will make the problem worse
RE PKers under 30
Samanski was seeing PK time. So was Podkolzin. Kapanen was often on PK. Not to mention McD (but here I am, mentioning him).
The rhetoric around this team is so confusing. On one hand, we’re saying it’s not Connor or Leon or the coaching, it’s the rest of the roster. And then the solution is to add 1 third line winger?
So, the conclusion from a first round exit to the Ducks is that the Oilers are a single player away from serious contention again. How is that possible?
This team just gave up 26 goals in a 6 game series to the underdog and running it back with the same D and G is the recommendation. That is the definition of “you know what” to me.
The current model for Cup contention peaked for this team in Game 7 against Florida and the depth/results have been trending downward since. This isn’t a build around the edges and eventually the boys will get it right moment imo. It is time for a bold and correct move to reset the roster and re-establish the team on a positive trajectory.
The history of Cup Winners is filled with teams that knocked on the door and then eventually pushed through after making the right bold move. Esposito, Hodge, and Stanfield to the Bruins. Goring to the Islanders, Roy to the Avalanche, Pronger to the Ducks, O’Reilly to the Blues, Messier to the Rangers, Hossa to the Hawks, Kessel to the Penguins, Tkachuk to the Panthers, and on and on and on.
The Oilers tried it with this core. Twice they climbed the mountain but couldn’t summit. Now they can’t even get past the first round.
How often do you want to watch the usual suspects make the same mistakes at critical times while the season dies on the vine? Winning it all takes courage. Now is the time for boldness before the window closes for good again.
Agreed – status quo doesn’t really cut it. It isn’t moves for the sake of moves.
I find it really hard not to see this as a coaching issue if the major issues are:
Ekholm, Nuge, and Hyman all had a fairly mediocre playoff. That seems more age curve related than coaching.
When we look back on this in 20 years, the loss of much needed youth in Holloway and Bromberg may really stand out as a critical factor. It’s one thing to lose young prospects still cutting their teeth. It’s quite another to lose them just as they’re matriculating into viable pros.
Injuries are probably the biggest reason for the loss, too many were playing hurt. We also lacked toughness which may have contributed to the injuries, Ducks were taking liberties.
Kapanen is only 29. People forget that.
Hutson, Howard, Jarventie, Samanski, Clattenburg…some or all will play. You can certainly add another couple in this age range.
Keep the bottom of the roster as clear as possible on the wings. They have some really interesting pieces – or guys you could bundle to trade for someone higher up the ladder as well.
If Samanski Dach and Frederic could handle 3rd line duty, Nuge and Lazar with three young guys could fill the 10 thru 14 spots
That’s a fourth line. Specifically, two 4th line wingers and an emerging 3C.
The young guys are better than Dach and Frederic.
Yes. It seems people are surprised at Leon’s “honesty” about the club taking a “step back.”
What else could the club do? There could be no “stepping forward” with the old/getting older, getting slower roster of 2024 or 2025.
The team had two SCFs with old (but talented, experienced) rosters. Any realistic step “forward” from 2024 was going look like a “step back” for anyone expecting 2024, 2025 SCFs to repeat as a 2026 SCF.
From a “cohesion” perspective, something that most noted during the season as elusive for this team, the feeling of “stepping back” makes sense. You lose a couple of valuable young pieces and some older players after 2024. You let go more older/experienced players and add rookies (and factor in still-hurt players, Fred and Hyman and RNH) after 2025. The Capt decided to shoot first/defend later while his first Lt. skates away from Selke aspirations… (a Selke style of play that, interestingly, won him the Rocket in 2025; playing responsibly doesn’t necessarily mean losing offence, to those who worried that Knoblauch’s obsession with shot suppression limits the Capt).
As a fan, I wanted the trend to Cup success to continue. As someone curious about organizational/team change, however, I was neither surprised nor disappointed that the peak of 2024 would require “stepping back” to get younger, faster, bigger, and better able to compete in a league that —as we’re seeing— is younger, faster, more competitive.
I do not read minds. But the evidence seems obvious: GMSB is bringing in younger, faster, often bigger talent. This was, as many have said, a necessary response to a “win now” focus that mortgaged the future. It’s possible that this kind of procurement and development, instituted 2-3 years earlier would have mitigated the “stepping back” experience. But, we —team, fans, observers— are here, now.
I am looking forward to what comes next. And, in the meantime, I’m rooting for the Habs to begin their current version of dynasty.
How about Kapanen is already 29. Hasnt been anything but a depth player for how long now and do we really expect a top 6 role because of a 6 game heater?
Middle 6. And I’ll take a shooter with playoff intensity any day of the week so long as he doesn’t get term or an NTC. $$$s will be reasonable I’m sure.
Is there a word limit for posts that automatically kicks them into a moderation queue?
Word to the wise, if your post includes a word that rhymes with Vinsanity, your post will go into purgatory. Probably not a bad thing.
I will never again use ‘manatee’ in a post
Thank you.
ps. Either we agree, or I’ve drunk the LT Koolaid and am under your sway.
pps. LT, thanks for the Douglas Hunter book reference. It’s out of print but I tracked one down. Summer reading.
Test
We desperately need two more wingers with significant upside.
1LW Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai 2RW
nuge Dickinson Savoie
freddie Samanski Dach.
if we’re talking about Kapanen as a solution we’re in trouble
The Oilers don’t need more goals, they need new systems and to play a 200 ft game.
Every team needs more goals. Scoring does not need to come at the expense of goal prevention.
The Oilers need some better wingers AND to play a 200 ft game.
They need more goals and more defensive play. What they can’t do is bring the same lineup and expecting different results
Jarventie has signed in the Swiss League.
With that said, he also did that last year in case he didn’t get an NHL contract.
Dreger confirms on twitter that Bouch and Nurse added to Team Canada for the upcoming Worlds.
While I prefer they all rest it should be a good experience and exposure for Bouch, and hopefully add some trade value for Nurse haha. I have to suspect they play together too which may open the eyes to some more flexibility for whoever is coaching the Oil next season.
This is great for both of them.
This “being rested for next year” narrative would be more believable if McDavid and Draisaitl were not 1st and 4th in Time on Ice per game during this wasted season
I’ve said for quite a while that the team is exhausted and needs to either win the Cup or have a long offseason to recharge, recover and get healthy. A long offseason season it is.
Running the same roster back with the same coaches with the same strategy won’t work. So if it’s the same roster, the strategy needs changing. GMSB makes the call on whether that means a new coaching staff. I wonder if he has the authority to make the decision.
Breaking news: Rob Jarventie is off to Switzerland on a 2-year deal.
Wow.
I don’t blame him. He did all he could to prove he was an effective bottom 6 F in the AHL and we continued to give opportunities to ineffective or low potential options instead. This is Holloway/Broberg light and another indictment on Coach KK
Bowman is in control of who gets called up from Bakersfield. He is the first gatekeeper.
Yes Bowman has final say for sure. I think out of all transactions though, call ups and send downs are the most mutually decided between GM and coach. And KK could have played Jaraventie more when he was up
I suspect it’s more than that, otherwise he could have simply asked for a trade (especially since he is RFA).
Wow. Holy Chicken Little Batman. Or Jarventie, like last year, is securing his contingencies. Based on what I’m reading this team (not specifically nor only in this post) is in free-fall. Fire everyone, because that has worked in the past. I guess the Panthers, Lightning and Stars will be cleaning house too. Should be lots of good people for the Oil to chose from the unemployed NHL executive and coaching ranks.
Oh, wait a minute… the sky isn’t falling… but Chicken Little said…?
He also reportedly signed with a Finnish team last year before extending with the Oilers, so I’m holding out hope something similar happens again.
Another blow to the prospect lineup. Will we still hold his NHL rights, if he eventually decides to return to the league?
When projecting the roster for next season
Players that are likely to improve: Savoie, Fredrick, Samanski,dach( if kept) ,Howard, regula.
Players likely to maintain current level.
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Emberson, Podkolzin, Ingram, Walman, stasney.
Players likely to decline. Hyman, Ekholm, Nuge, nurse,
Players likely to decline if they’re back. Dickinson,Murphy, Janmark Kapenen.
When I look at the roster, players that are added in my opinion should have room to improve. The oilers have enough sure thing solid vets. No more Henrique/ mang/ Janmark types.
For me I’m only adding players with upside. Some will be too expensive (Mcmann) but there are players like Podkolzin or Samanski that will be available. Bowman has a proven ability to find them even if it means a tomasek fail sometimes.
Absolutely agree. Try to mine players needing a second opinion making less than $1.3M so you can bury if need be. In the same vein, I’d look to recoup draft assets for Stastney and/or Regula who look like they aren’t covering the bet so you can make new bets.
Janmark will be healthy. So he should be better.
I think Podz will continue to improve.
I think Nuge can improve on his performance from the 2nd half of the season.
I think Walman can improve on his year-long performance (he needs to stay healthy – he wasn’t healthy from game 1).
I agree on Podz but I was trying to be conservative.
I’m guessing Nuge will not get guaranteed pp time or top 6 minutes. Hopefully he can be a great third liner. Maybe?
Absolutely think Walman will be better but again just trying to be extremely conservative. Sekera was a similar dman in my opinion and health took away his game. Hopefully Walman avoids that type of drop.
I think Nuge will 100% be on PP1.
All the numbers, year after year after year, without exception, show that the PP drops off without him in the lineup – every time.
The PP also finished…… 1st in the league, by a full 2% over second place (and that includes a real drop off at the end of the year with Drai out for 15 games (and Hyman for much of it)
Hyman hasn’t really dropped off, but his health may be a concern. He still scored at a 43-goal pace when he was healthy this season. So I’m not sure he is ‘likely’ to decline, but it is possible if the injuries are a sign of decline. I also don’t think Nurse is ‘likely’ to decline. He’s still in great shape and still one of the fastest skaters in the NHL. Nuge had decent speed, but it has never been a huge part of his game, so I think he’s smart enough to adjust and produce. He still scored at a 23-goal pace with less successful PP minutes and less top-6 minutes this year.
I think Hyman was fantastic this year. That for me is the reason I’d expect him to drop off. Hyman for me could likely be a great 3rd line winger even after some skill and speed erosion.
I doubt Nuge could produce in a third line role. Although he was the best he ever has been at the start of the year. As his skill and speed erode he may still have stretches of great play but those stretches will likely be shorter and less often. Uphill battle especially since top 6 and pp minutes are no longer a guarantee.
This fan base is extremely hard on players once the show decline. Nurse relies completely on his athleticism. If that drops even slightly I doubt he’ll be able to compensate with smart play, Just not part of his skill set.
LT, I’m surprised but not dismayed at your opinion on Nurse. Your post from just after the elimination suggested to me that you were set on clearing him off the roster. Something about a serious owner trading him for a forward? I won’t quote it because it’s not a trap, I’m just curious if I misinterpreted your opinion a few days ago. I suppose the logic makes sense to me, and if Kyrou is available (as you suggest) I would do that same deal. That said, my impression is that maybe you were done with Nurse on this roster.
Goalies? I’ll take an upgrade, but it’s not what I’m pounding the pavement for. I’d like to see our goalies after getting a new defence/PK coach.
To me, the number one upgrade target of the off-season is whoever is playing in Roslovic’s and Frederic’s spot. I like Roslovic, but he’s the sort of player that can be a top six forward on a rebuilding team, or the 6th best winger on a robust, structured team. I could see him getting 40 points in Carolina, buying into their system, and thriving. Frederic? I’ve had enough of him at this point honestly. It’s very rare that I want a player off the team, but he’s brought NHL-level quality for (generously) 10 total games of the 101 he’s played in an Oiler uniform. It’s just as rare that I look at a player and just don’t see any potential. I have more time for a Jack Campbell comeback tour to be honest because at least I could see what the dream was. Unless he can fully buy in to 12 minutes a night, fighting and hitting, putting everything on the line and praying for greasy ones, call up Boston and ask if they want him back. Retain even.
One place I diverge from you? There’s one long term contract I would give out in FA this off-season. I would give Central Alberta native Bobby McMmann the 2026 equivalent of the Hyman contract if we’re on his list.
My personal opinion is the Oilers would be wise to move on from Nurse if he’s open to it. Evan Bouchard has passed him as the foundation defenseman, and the team could make a trade for another high-priced option in an area of greater need. I mentioned Jordan Kyrou as an example in my article at The Athletic,
Having said that, Nurse is useful, and the Oilers need to be aware of their own weaknesses at LH defense. Now, I like Ekholm and Walman, and honestly like Stastney and even Carfagna, but only Ekholm and Walman should play on the top two pairings.
Both have injury histories that raise eyebrows. That’s an area Nurse covers, becuase he is so durable.
Interesting to note . . . it’s been announced that both Bouchard & Nurse have been added to Team Canada’s World Championship roster. So somebody still appreciates what Nurse brings.
Reports of Nurse’s horrendousness are greatly exaggerated
You are right on Slushy. He may be a bit overpaid, but he is a useful, durable, NHL defender, full stop. Trade him with retention for someone paid appropriately, you’ll still end up with an overall cap hit for that same player in the $9MM range.
My predictions for the summer. Bowman gives the players the chance to show their worth to everyone’s goal. It is a veteran team, and I think he’s mindful to not upset the core. I don’t mean he’s afraid to, but that he doesn’t want to do things that will damage the team bond
Goalies are so critical, he gave them the chance, and he didn’t like it, so despite the guys wanting Pick to stay he moved on. He wasn’t going to give them the season. The team was not good last season, so I think a similar thing will happen. He will ask everyone with movement clauses if they would waive again as he did last summer
But I don’t know that he will move on from Nurse. He might try if he gets a yes on the NMC, but he won’t if any potential deal isn’t good enough. And then as LT said you have to find a durable LD with Ek and Walman having injury issues. Who knows but I won’t be surprised if nothing happens there
He will likely sign Murphy and Ingram. Perhaps he can swing a deal for the Wild goalie, but again he doesn’t have a ton of assets to work with, so unless they love Howard or someone the cost could be prohibitive
I agree the core roster issue is the third line. The top 2 lines are good if healthy, the 4th as proposed looks good, and I think Samanski will grow a lot during the season. I like the idea of a 3rd line that can play toughs, I like Dickinson’s attitude and jam, but the 3rd line has to be able to score and at least tread water. It seems to be a key on all of the teams that win Cups
The core team issue is the coaching. The quality of team play is unstable, and 5v5 offense has been declining under Knoblauch. That can’t happen when you have 3 top 10 scorers on your team. In playoffs Leon 10 pts -2, Bouch 7 pts -7, Connor 6 pts -8. They were hurt, but still
I have mentioned I agree with Oates that some teams play too spread out. That’s the Oilers for sure. I have been closely watching playoff teams in the O zone and breaking out. It’s all about close puck support, and the 5 guys working together, providing layers
I often see teams focusing on the strong side, in the O zone popping over to the weak side – wide open – and coming back if no pass comes. In and out, always trying to get the puck to the slot and a shooting position. Sometimes to the point, but then often two players charge to the net front to deflect screen or be on a rebound. They back track hard and contest the N zone. The D have pretty tight gaps. The teams try to stay above the puck, and battle away until something breaks
This is how the panthers play, and Curlock did a tactical breakdown for the 24 or 25 playoffs, and using the weak side he identified as key to countering the panthers’ system. They didn’t do it, at least well enough
Knoblauch has had two full seasons and it’s just not good enough, and however he is structuring D play it’s not stable and is hurting offense and goalies. Playing solid team D doesn’t have to hurt production, it doesn’t hurt the Avs Lightning and Canes. They need a coach that has a better system for a team like this, and can lead them to what Connor and Leon explicitly say that they want to work toward. Growing their games to take the next step
And also that is better at managing the team in terms of engagement, stability, and cohesiveness. It gets talked about in pressers, was again, it hasn’t happened, and times a wastin’. And there is a better coach looking for a gig
I did a whole bunch of digging on giveaways.
The oilers defensive zone giveaways per game was atrociously bad. Not just a clear over 1.5-near 3 times as bad relative to every team in playoffs. Like a stepchange worse in regular season bad. They were the worst team in regular season and playoff stat was eerily close to same.
Oilers defensive giveaways per game
-> Reg 7.12 (32nd) Playoff 6.83 (16th)
Next worst team
-> Reg 6.88 (SJS) Playoff 5.10 (PHI)
-> PHI reg 5.95 (23 rd)
Best team
-> Reg 2.94 (CAR) playoff 3.12 (CAR)
The rest of top 5 ranked playoffs when i did this
2. COL:
-> reg 3.21 (2nd) playoff 3.25 (2nd)
3. MIN:
-> reg 4.14 (8th) playoff 3.39 (3rd)
4. BUF:
-> reg 3.45 (4th) playoff 3.45 (4th)
5. DAL:
-> reg 3.44 (3rd) playoff 3.51 (5th)
Just to stress how bad this metric truly reflects on things:
2023-2024 reg season
32. SJS (6.72)
31 CHI (6.44)
30 MON (6.31)
29 CBJ (5.95)
28 ANH (5.88)
2024-2025 reg season
32. SJS (6.54)
31. CHI (6.32)
30. ARZ (6.15)
29. CBJ (5.92)
28 MON (5.76)
2025-2026 reg season
32. EDM (7.12)
31. SJS (6.88)
30 CGY (6.81)
29 CBJ (6.71)
28 CHI (6.64)
The team wasn’t that demonstrably different. Like could anyone seriously justify injuries and roster changes were so bad this season they magically appear like they must be tankathon contenders in regards to getting the puck out of their own end..?
2024-2025 playoffs 3.88 (6th) reg 4.08 (16th)
2023-2024 playoffs 3.76 (9th) reg 3.71 (11th)
Like it’s near impossible by eye or by stats to not strongly suggest this was a clear tactic or systems issue. Either not adjusting enough from what maurice exposed as weakness in 2024-2025 or adjustments made things way worse.
This is first time since eakins i’ve been completely on the “they need a coaching change” this clearly since November.
Running mcdavid up to a career high 22:59 of toi/g couldn’t save him…in logical fairness most of the time is going from next to no PK toi/g up to 00:39/g last season up to 1:03/g….
But i mean that just seems like a pretty ridiculous trend to begin with on a guy logging higher minutes than most defensemen that and skates an average of 1.5 times the distance of average NHL player….in a compressed season….
Sorry out out for real.
Just i don’t understand how knobby made it through the entire season watching the games. Like they fired woody when his underlying numbers actually showed team likely stronger than results by wide margin. At very least losing gulutzan this season might have given unfortunste front row seat to knoblauchs actual current ceiling.
2022-2023 109 pts
2023-2024 104 pts (knobby took over)
2024-2025 101
2025-2026 93
Over his head by eye or by metrics.
Hang this post in the Louvre
This team is going to come back next season rested, re-set, trained up and with a renewed sense of urgency and readiness to work.
The core of this team, McDavid, Drai, Bouchard, Walman, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse are going to be ready.
No matter what Bowman is able to do and surround them with, this team is going to crush the regular season next year.
I can’t wait!
If Cassidy is the coach
It’s funny how we’re reading that the Panthers will be back with vengeance next year. The Oiler? They’re just an over-the-hill, over-worked, over-paid, under-coached and poorly managed group players that have tuned out the coach, only care about offence, and are secretly directing how the roster is constructed and deployed. It must be the water.
Style of play – IMHO – is the answer. Prior to winning the Stanley Cup with Detriot Yzerman was getting 100-137 points per year. Then Scotty Bowman came in and they changed their style of play. When Detriot won the cups Yzerman had 85 points and then 69 points- but they won the cup. McDavid and company must change their style of play to win the cup
Also agree. The two main strategies with McDavid “replacement players gather and hand him the puck” or “on an overpowered line with Draisaitl and Bouchard” simply aren’t durable strategies in playoffs. You can employ them once or twice per game, but if you do either strategy a significant amount of time, you’re not getting value for your money.
I would suggest a complete overhaul of the PK, developing some systems that isn’t standing and watching before turning McDavid into a 70pt forward.
But to each their own.
Why can’t it be both – better PK strategy and better 5v5 defensive play? I don’t see why it’s an either-or dilemma.
“If’ they are actually a fast team, and the players are fit enough to skate hard for 60 minutes, the coach doesn’t burn out the top 4, and their tactics are improved they will go back to being a top offensive and defensive team, as they should be
Stopping the opponent and having the puck shouldn’t reduce offense if it’s done right
I agree with your suggested lineup for next year, assuming they can sign Ingram, Murphy and Kapanen to reasonable deals.
There are some issues with the lineup that would have to be addressed. You don’t have a right shot center, or any center that is strong on draws for the penalty kill. And you don’t have much penalty killing experience in this lineup. And the penalty kill was already an issue.
I might change the d pairs up completely and go
Nurse Bouchard
Walman Murphy
Eckholm Emberson
I would then flip flop Nurse and Eckholm as needed. Hopefully that would cut back on Eckholms minutes and you could still use him in important game situations.
I think you are going to struggle to replace the Nurse minutes if you trade him, and I doubt it improves the teams cap situation because you either have to retain a bunch of salary or take back an equally bad contract.
I don’t have a problem with Nurses play until he gets the puck on his stick. He has a tendency to panic with the puck and his decisions with it are questionable at best. He can put his partner in some really bad spots when he decides to go d to d.
After writing all this, I’m still left with the feeling that this team won’t be any better than this past year’s edition. And Stan Bowman has pretty much run out of bullets to make meaningful changes. He is going to have to hit some home runs this summer.
Hope I’m wrong.
I bet a new coach would deploy that. Because it makes the most long term sense
Yes. Genuine outscoring. Would also be nice if there was an option to stymie the opposition’s top line and get clean air for the top 6.
Tough UFA crop coming up. Coyle is a great fit stylistically, but 34 years old. Tuch will get paid and is unlikely to leave home now that they’ve broken into the playoffs. Zuccarello, Giroux, and Toews are in the Guide and Record Book but might be too old even for Holland.
I like Ilya Mikheyev (speed, aggressive style, PK) but question if he can add enough offence to justify his likely AAV. Mason Marchment (while getting old at 30) might be a near ideal fit but how likely is he to bail from DAL, and at what cost? Jayden Schwartz has long been a favourite, but given he’s currently 33 when does Father Time come calling?
Bowman needs to look for the next version of those guys. Like when Vegas plucked Stone from the Sens
Marchment is a blue jacket. I could see him leaving. Aav is the factor, but this team could use him
Isn’t Mikheyev just a less physical Kasperi Kapanen? Their 5v5 stats are pretty much identical. Kap appears to be better defensively too, by the numbers.
one thing in favor of mikheyev is his boots are insane and he can pk with the best of them.
Kapanen is faster.
I think good GMs take advantage of situations and this looks like a perfect storm to actually extract value for Nurse. 1) weak UFA class as mentioned 2) very few rebuilding teams, almost everyone is looking to get better, and 3) a massively rising cap.
When you combine this with a 6’4 31 year old defenceman who skates like the wind and is mean? Have you seen how Trouba, Jones, Fowler, and Lindholm glowed up when moved?
That is the way you need to package it to other teams. As LT said, trades are where mistakes are made. Let’s try to be on the other side of it and extract a Kyrou, Fox, J. Robertson, Hamilton, Gustavsson, or E Karlsson from this.
If there is just overpriced crap coming back, then I agree don’t make the trade. But these types of trades happen (see Hall v Larsson, Jarry v Skinner, and Reinhart v the future)
There is certainly some merit to your line of thinking, but the crux of the issue is Nurse’s NMC. And then there’s concern that Walman and Ekholm are somewhat injury-prone… wouldn’t it make more sense to trade away Walman instead? I like how he elevates in the playoffs but $7M is WAY too much to be spending on a 3rd pairing defenseman. His contract might be more palatable to a team needing a decent 2nd pairing guy rather than asking someone to swallow Nurse’s $9.25M.
IMO the team needs better puck moving on the back end, if we could get a Montour or Hronek for Walman and then pair them with Nurse we could see much better overall results.
interesting point and it lends itself to ask which is better/worse value: Nurse at 9.25 or Walman at 7 (for forever).
Nurse has no chance of getting better. Likely to regress.
Walman is extremely likely to improve based on health recovery. And has shown, at least in healthy stretches, to be a top pairing d man. Health is a concern however.
You absolutely have a point that you should apply the same thinking to Walman. I’d go one further and say they are not mutually exclusive and could trade both under this thinking. Every player should have their value assessed relative to their contract and if the option presents itself to get better value in a trade, then we should do it. It’s tough to make a lot of trades but not impossible. Utah built up their D in one summer and certainly possible we could retool ours.
I don’t want to “see” any of those EVER again 🤣
Knoblauch is gone. Not what they need. Flex financial muscle and eat his salary.
Cooper if he available (doubt it). Cassidy is an upgrade and a change of style which is needed. Accountability and attention to details. Plus his system’s seem to protect goalies, which we will need. As we do not have a real upgrade out there.
LT, you have Kyrou on some projections in other posts. Makes a ton of sense. Perfect add. How to get him? Is there any way they would take a St. Louis native in Frederick back along with Howard, 1st, 2nd and another prospect?
For money savings Nuge needs to be the 3rd line centre. With Savoie emerging, Nuge is redundant, and you need the money you would use on Dickason to sign Murphy and add a Kyrou type of higher end player ($7 to 8.5 mill cap wise).
Murphy is the need on back end. we have no one close to top 4 on right side in system. and no free agent signing option either. He is the priority.
Kapanen only on a deal at or below $2 mill. no Frederick part 2.
Savoie-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draistal-Kyrou
???-Nuge-Kapanen
Frederick-Samanski-Dach
If you keep Dickason then Nuge slides to 3LW. If not you find a solid offensive middle 6 LW to upgrade their 3rd line.
Unless you can swing a lefty-for-righty trade. How would Walman-Montour look on the 2nd pair? Or Nurse-Hronek?
The Blues biggest need is a young middle six centre, and that is what they want coming back for Kyrou. They just had one 2022 1st and one 2023 1st play their first full seasons, and two more 2023 1sts play half a season, and a 2021 1st play their first full season. They have three first round draft picks this year. They do not need picks or prospects. They are loaded on the left side with Holloway, Neighbours, Buchnevich, Drouin, Stenberg, Toropchenko. No room for Howard.
Kyrou for a young middle six center. i.e. like Kyrou for Shane Wright modulo stuff.
To get Kyrou to the Oilers would have to be a three way deal.
I think Hyman, McDavid, and Kyrou would be an interesting line. Kyrou is the most enigmatic speedy highly skilled winger in the league. Kyrou can skate, pass, and shoot at elite levels. His two way play is now adequate. He could replace Nugent-Hopkins on the PP. Kyrou could actually keep up with McDavid on the rush, and play give-n-go.
Regula and Frederic, I think, deserve the benefit of a longer audition while fully healthy.
Nurse has a history of showing well with Bouchard (hardly surprising), and could be the solution to move up when Ekholm fades to third pair mentor. Or Walman is another viable option. No issues with Statsney in a third pairing role, but not sure I see a path for him aside from injury fill in due to Ekholm’s contract (barring a trade, which I see as unlikely). Unfortunately, for Regula, I see him in a similar spot for now if Murphy is set to return.
Frederic has had a year plus.
Is more time going to improve his indifferent play?
Is he suddenly going to be engaged and play hard hockey?
The guy showed zero in the playoffs. Could’ve used a guy like Frederic was supposed to be in the playoffs.
Just move on.
Move on how? How much are you willing to retain when this team is cap-strapped?
Yeah, I don’t think “moving on” is really an option here. Why not give him another year to see what he can do 100% healthy? It’s not like his extra $3M above replacement level is going to make-or-break the season…
Send him to the minors 😉
Not possible. He has a full NMC.
Hear, hear. How does Bakersfield sound Trent?
I presume Frederic wasn’t really able to hockey train much last season as he probably spent it rehabbing after playing on a badly sprained ankle every second night for two month.
I don’t disagree that Ekholm will need to be faded over the term of this contract but lets not discount the season he had:
1) played all 82 game
2) had 41 points
3) was 12th in the league for 5 on 5 points for d-men
4) played 36% TOI vs elites
5) had a 56% goal share.
Evan Bouchard floats all boats but Ekholm had a top pairing season (shit, objectively a 1D season really).
This is bang on, it’s been the problem with this team and goaltenders’ perception for exactly one metric forever. Dubnyk wasn’t the problem, nor Skinner.
On the other hand, maybe the staff should start drafting/procuring goalies who can thrive under the run and gun, sometimes-defense style of play in good ol’ our town.
Or hey, maybe hire a coach who can implement a system that doesn’t just hang the goalies out to dry every single game?
I think what you are saying, LT, is that what is needed is a coaching change. With that I agree. Yes, one can point to problems with individual players, but as a group I’m convinced they could play (and win) against anyone. The problem to me is an addled style of play. So that translates to me in either a new system (coaching change without changing the coach) or a new coach, if he can’t or won’t change.
I think they need a strategy change for sure. Don’t know if that means firing the coach.
Unless you’re going to hire a coach to coach the coach, then yeah, you’re going to have to fire Coach Knoblauch.
Is MacTavish available to loom over Knoblauch on the bench?
It’s not just the ‘26-‘27 season where Nurse’s contract is burdensome, it’s also the three seasons after that.
Trying to re-shape the roster with that contract is like changing into your Sunday best in a phone booth … there’s just not enough wiggle room.
I’d rather have a Murphy + Dickinson + Ryan Shea than Nurse + two marginal players.
You can trade the Nurse contract, but you are trading it for another burdensome deal. He has value but most of that cap hit is going to be hurtling back to the Oilers page on PuckPedia in the form of another overpriced player.