My favourite Rolling Stones song is Tumbling Dice, although ask me in a month and it might be Moonlight Mile. In the song Tumbling Dice, the line “I’m all sixes and sevens and nines” always struck me as a key way to describe a specific situation where one is short of the needed curency. Please read this.
The mind carries things, then discovers things in poetry and prose that align themselves with carried knowledge. Years after parsing what the hell Mick was singing, I read a Douglas Hunter book called “A Life in Hockey.” It was an exceptional book about Scotty Bowman, frank and precise.
In the book, Hunter describes a moment right at the beginning of Bowman’s coaching career in the NHL. Bowman and the St. Louis Blues were struggling. The team was populated by older men who had fallen shy of NHL jobs in the original six, and were taking advantage of six new teams and 108 new opportunities in the NHL via expansion in 1967.
There was unrest among the players. Bowman was in his mid-40s, not much older than some of the players he was coaching. In fact, Doug Harvey joined the team for the playoffs and was just a couple of years younger than Bowman.
One night, after an especially difficult game, one in which it was clear unrest existed among the players, Bowman entered the dressing room and said something like ‘it’s difficult to play against a team with Kings and Aces when you’re only holding sixes and sevens and nines.” That isn’t the exact quote, but I remember it that way because of the Stones song.
Long preamble today in order to make this point: STAN Bowman is good at finding sixes and sevens and nines at low cost. Man, he’s done a pile of it since arriving in Edmonton. Kasperi Kapanen, Jack Roslovic, Josh Samanski and others we’ll see in the years to come. I’m not talking about the trades for Vasily Podkolzin, Ty Emberson, Connor Ingram and others, those moves involved players who are now or could occupy feature roles on the Oilers.
I’m talking about players who can be useful but should never cost too much. So, we then segue to Trent Frederic, who is a role player Bowman signed to a long-term deal for too much. It was not a value move.
He had something in mind, and it did not work out.
If I’m Bowman, I dig in. I double damn down. Frederic and Colton Dach formed an effective tandem late in the season. It was the talk of the town. Kris Knoblauch abandoned it, partly due to injuries to penalty killers (requiring Frederic to be a healthy scratch) and mistakes by Frederic (requiring Frederic to be a healthy scratch).
All good, but if I’m Bowman I’m bringing back Dach-Samanski-Frederic as a line. The trio will cost $6 million on the cap (or so) and that’s manageable. That line was effective in doing a specific job: keeping the puck one mile from the Edmonton net while making life miserable for opposition defensemen. The line played 40 minutes together in the regular season, 3-1 goals, 63 percent expected. One minute, 13 seconds in the playoffs together. Shame.
On the Lowdown today, we have two feature guests in Rachel Kryshak (12:40) and Jason Gregor (1:20). Heavy Oilers talk, but some on the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs, too. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
Six key questions for the Edmonton Oilers that must be solved this offseason
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7250101/2026/05/04/edmonton-oilers-roster-cap-offseason-questions-2026/
I rarely post anymore but watch every game and read most of the LT blog.
Anyway, I really just wanted to comment on what Maudite wrote earlier today, laying on some of the best prose I have ever read while offering up some self-evalutation that I can appreciate (and share).
I thought I would share it here because it risks getting lost in his long post below.
To quote Maudite. “reading your stinking blog entry daily is one of the rare consistent habits I’ve ever managed to form outside of mainly vice level practices.”
Thanks for the season LT/Al. And thanks Maudite.
To keep on the topic of Oilers, today, let me offer that Leon”s comments throughout the year have left me the impression that he and his teammates see the team as a live process that is forged each year, consequently is different each year and would be different even if the parts/players stayed the same. On the other hand most fans see the TEAM as a thing, like the Oiler brand or franchise or the ‘crest’ as they say in footie. Thus we are viewing the team as something to be managed, rather than forged, where forging or building the team includes putting together some new parts. Of course we can only comment on the the tangibles, the pieces we see. FWIW
Roll that fourth line – they can impact.
I think they would like Frederic to earn his way up to a left 3rd line roll but that’s the training camp line. Samanski needs legit PK time and Bowman continues to mention Frederic on the PK.
Nuge and Howard form the base of a third line (or, shit, actually play Howard in the top 6 and one of Podz, Kap or Hyman slide down.
This team has the incumbent players to re-set for next season – some changes, of course, but the SC playoff lineup is better than they played.
A very common theme over the last few days, from Bowman, to McDavid and Drai and now Friedman (based on his calls over the last few days) is a material change in the way the team plays and deploys – ensuring more players have a material role and bite.
Talk is cheap but look forward to this come October.
It should have happened this season. Lose in the finals twice and obviously doing the same thing will not improve results
At least next season should have a bit more stability on it. There was a ton of question marks going into the season. Remember Tomasek? I think we will have a lot more players pencilled into roles.
I know it gonna be something like
Savoie Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai Kapanen/Howard
Nuge Dickenson Freddie
Dach Samanski Kapanen/Howard
But i really hope they can find a upgrade on the top 6. Even one top 6 upgrade would go a long way
Just for conversation. I think the top 6 would be fine. The best two players in the world and with Podz getting 20g+ and Savoie with more top 6 minutes and pp time should get closer to 30g 40a. Hyman may take a step back but that’s ok. Howard likely to get 20g.
I think actually adding a strong third line player or two would be more needed. Nuge is likely one winger. If Dickinson is there then you have a fourth line not a third line.
The fourth line we have those pieces.
The top 6 is in line with the Avs, the difference being their two most productive players play together mostly. Being so top heavy I don’t think the Oilers can have pricier wingers, the Duo will have to drive their lines and get enough out of who they play with
The third line is definitely the weak link. It needs to be more productive and at least break even. I like Dickinson because he wants to play D and can PK, but he will be too expensive for a 4th line C, and not productive enough at 3C – conundrum. He also needs to play with good defensive wingers to be able to shut down top lines, which he had with the Hawks
That’s a good an, but I don’t think Dickinson moves the needle on offense enough to keep. Plus, bottom six guys will be available on the cheap 3 weeks into FA. Or, a Hutson, Jarventie or Michaels can step in. Keeping Dickinson would coat a lot more than any of those options, imo.
I agree with you on waiting for an opportunity for top 6 help is important for the GM in the coming 10 months.
Inserting UFA Bobby McMann would be a great addition to the top 6 without breaking the bank.
I would agree. I think he’d be a great fit with Mcdavid and Hyman
Mcmann would be ideal. However I think he will break the bank. He’s too famous now like Sherwood was last year. Be nice to find the next Mcmann(challenging for sure)
I like having room to grow the roster internally. Samanski will be better next year( more muscle added in the offseason/ more experience) Fred will be better( healthy with a full offseason to train) dach may be better just growth.
Berezkin Michaels javarntie jones Poulin maybe there’s a third liner there?
Luck out with another Podkolzin maybe. Lots of options.
Related to LT’s Athletic article, this would be MY offseason game plan*
*i.e. I’m not saying our management team is capable of it
Gestalt
I’d come up with my plan and then tell McDrai what I am going to do and why, instead of asking permission etc. I’d get their opinion but that’s it
Coaching
Everyone out. At the very least, the team needs a reset. Lots of evidence that we have played worse the more Coach KK has been here. I am not convinced the roster has been that much worse.Thorough search. If you think the best guy is Carle out of Denver NCAA, offer him the bag. Cassidy and Cooper (if becomes available) are obvious other top choices but maybe there is someone else that is a better fit culture wise.
Draft
I’d prioritize home run picks in the vein of Lane/Cole Hutson-like players or Russians. We have shown we can find our 3rd and 4th liners for free with college and Euro signings or minimal assets out like Podz and Kapanen. What we can’t create for free is high end players.Recoup draft capital for Stasney or Regula who seem to have shown they are likely not going to be impact players and can be replaced at low cost
Creating Cap Space
Frederic: make a decision if you’d sign him right now for $2.5M x 7 years. If not retain up to that amount and find a motivated GM who thinks their team isn’t physical enough, perhaps even Boston who had good success with the Arvi dumpJarry: pick if you like Jarry at $2.7M x2 years or Ingram at est. $2M x 2 years. Jarry may be harder to move but 6 months ago went for full cap hit + Kulak + 2nd. Some GM would hopefully be licking their chops to take him at 50% for a pump and dump later on, perhaps even retained again.Nurse: I’d actually say this is the hardest decision because his $9M is becoming less and less detrimental. I’d still move but I’m actually looking to get value back because there isn’t much in UFA to replace him. Sell to a motivated GM like say Grier who values this player type and has seen what Trouba is doing for Ducks and Jones/Fowler/H. Lindholm bouncing back in other settings. Other options are NYR (Fox would be a heist), Detroit (cap dump + Cossa), and LA.Leave 3Fs and 1D spot on your teams for entry level deals that can develop during the year so you can make an evaluation come deadline time to see if can contribute come playoffs. If not, you have accumulated real deadline space so you can get Carlsons for the price paid for Dickinsons retained.
UFAs
Resign Murphy at $4.4 x 3. Realistically not signing for less than current contract.Resign Ingram and Kapanen for $2-2.5M but no more.Resign Jones, Lazar for league min if willing.Let Dickinson, Roslovic, Henrique walk. Dickinson & Roslovic are too expensive for skills that can be reproduced by Samanski and HowardIf Malkin gets to UFA, make a hard pitch centered around opportunity. Otherwise nibble around edges
Offer Sheets
Use next year’s second as a weapon to improve your team or at least make your opponent weaker. Targets include Zelwegger/Mintyukov in ANH or Bourque in DAL for $4.6M.
Trades
The biggest but scariest opportunity to improve your team, and the one where fans are most in the dark on. The mantra would be looking at unique situations to add value i.e. desperate or weak GMs (Detroit, Holland, Drury, ?STL, Toronto now) or teams with a certain agenda to retool or address certain areas (Bos, SJ, Pitt, STL, TB). Player targets could include Cossa, Kyrou, Fowler, Kuemper, Stolarz/Woll, McCabe, Fox, Lafreniere, Karlsson, and Rust as examples in right salary matching scenarios.
Ugh sorry LT. Meant quickly to respond to late comment on last thread about blame goslie mob woukd have already run wallstedt out of town.
Degenerated into a rant but for anyone that can get past what i’ve come to learn recently is actually a very peculiar more rare form of dyslexia/reading comprehension difference in how crazy adhd/autistic math brain actually reads and processes things…technically i’ve failed every english course since grade 7 just had great teachers who tried as best they could and knew it wasn’t lazy on my end so refused to fail me because what i wrote was more important than how i wrote it unbelievably lucky for their undsrstanding….but i know to people rigidly technical english directly reflects intelligence conditioned (institutionally ignorant of different brains than there’s but ironically often perfectly comfortable with stated fact “oh i’m not good at math”…in a way the way i see things actually in some ways more limited because unlike me who can intake gist of anyone’s written statements their brain is trained to devalue anything that is not technicalky perfect…pretty sure rickibesr and i are from a close neighbourhood in neurodiverse city just he’s more rigid science/math and i’m more arts/creative brained…1 of us is a damn fine engineer by textbook definition while i do posess an engineering degree people in my 4th year when they saw me in beer gardens were excited to know what arts program i surely was now in after failing out in 1st year as they literally hadn’t seen me since…they coukdn’t believe i was actually technically in all their classes…which is why i have often said over the course of my career “i’m not actually an engineer. Like i have the paper that says i am but i copied all my assignments, never attended anything but mandatory labs, deferred most of my midterms and just had 1 make or break week a semester where i wrote 80-100% finals…not an engineer just really good at math puzzles and pressure cooker moments)
Anyway.to the few who don’t read me like i’m annoying ill thought fool. Think there is some value in stream if conciojs that burst out of other thread.
Will post it in comnent under this.
Thanks again LT for another season where reading your stinking blog entry daily is one of the rare consistent habits i’ve ever managed to form outside of mainly vice level practices.
Thanks i guess for sucking me back in every year to paying more attention to a team i surely would have stopped many years ago without covered in oil being a gateway drug to your doorstep.
You make a frustrating team actualky interesting.
Have a great summer! I’m going to try to minimize phone usage of any sort so i can get my life back on track before i have to sell my home.
Appreciate another year of high quslity distraction…i’m sure i’ll get sucked back in by end of summer.
C.
1
What goalie are “they” (or maybe “we” depending how you define hate) unfairly hating at present?
Jarry?
-> believe biggest issue is acquisition cost seemed bent over barrel steep for a much higher injury prone guy who just the previous season was on waivers and likely only reason not bought out once he passes through being his contract is buyout proof…
Worst case trade -> 1 for 1 based on 2+ million more in salary for a goalie that would be fair to say not clear significant upgrade nor even having some clutch style playoff history.
To add a 2nd seems like it should have then been some degree of retention (like we are taking the remaining 2.5 years of a buyout proof guy if you retain some of difference over life of contract).
To also add a vet completely servicable defensemen with added bonus of he’s stepped up huge for team in both of your last epic playoff runs…essentially just because that’s one of only ways possible to absorb cap hit increase….seemed bonkers. Didn’t take long to appear even worse seeing as he was flipped at deadline rightfully valued at a 2nd round pick and is now playing 2nd pair minutes on cup favourite…
The whole team wasn’t working. Yeah kulaks stats looked like he dropped off cliff but the cliff drop was who exactly is the 3rd pair playing with as bottom 3-5 or 6 forwards completely buried in defensive end with almost any shift where puck is heading in right direction ending with that rag tag group on the fly shifting off usually to give Mcbouch offensively tilted ice with which they are actuslly losing even strength scoring in…with added bonus of all these systems in place seem like they have been broken by other teams coaches.
Almost like everyone had watched this team last year in finals where a savy vet coach in maurice had done his homework following the previous finals and came back with an even better plan to mitigate elite talent impact…and all the oilers current coach seems to do about tactics is constantly change line combinations to degree surely no one outside super weapon has much of any consistency/familiarity with combinstions of teammates they are on ice with not just game to game but insanely even shift to shift….each and every game almost the only thing consistent is akin to ronald mcdonald “do you believe in mcmagic and we hope you do! Anything can happen right before your eyes! Expect the unexpected but…expect a suprise!”
Ugh. Anyway. Sorry need a coffee. But was just bothered how easy a kulak seems like he sucks narrative molded around him when sent away but a lot of pundits/bootlicks and packled fsnbase. Like none of it made sense because hyman and rnh had injuries and mcdavid was losing his minutes and coach simply refused to do anything but punish bottom 6 immediately if a goal was scored against snd mistake could be scaoegoated to one of them and they were given no real chance to offensively even try to provide 2ndary scoring ever. Just mix and match fall guys.
Like i’ve never seen a team in all the oilers permutations of cup contender mcdavid editions that was even close to as lobsided as far as captain and coaches favourites….
Like all the logical complaints of “worse that could happen” basically did happen
1 overworking top end in compressed season with olympics the key duo will not get rest in in fact be beat up from super competitive playoff tournament when they get back with added bonus of massice time zone difference and travel be worn out when games near immediateky start after.
2. Won’t stand a chance if team keeps getting played like there’s 2.5 lines and bottom 6 has no established identity come playoffs when depth scoring is often the difference in a series.
3. Yes mcdrai & probably almost any other players on a powerplay unit likely would have a 20-25+% conversion rate but it can get shutdown and it seems clear they often burn a lot of minutes not being super dangerous and the back half if a lot of those extended shifts become even more stagnant as far as movement and surely any sane strategist looking at how ineffective it was in previous finals on top of how every team coming in has cleary adjusted to shut down drai’s office or bouchbomb not aggressively contested being easy goal options would see benefit of establishing a 2nd unit. Not just in case of emergency but because the value of a lot of secondary scorers can also come from that 2nd unit. Like a guy like howard is honestly little to no value on a team run like this is. Like he can’t be added as top line offensive threat because that line needs defensive concious added to stand chance of outscoring…maybe he could work in 2nd line but only if you make a 3rd line that gets solid icetime 200 ft style or you are wasting what has become your best LW which i think i’d prefer to keep developing confidence and range of ways a threat to score beside draisaitl. Like he started doing one timers…he scored a couple fro drai’s office on a type of shot i’ve never seen him take before….like his ceiling as a top 6 power forward who is defensively sound is still developing his spot on a properly constructed team is LW on drai’s line scoring threat all sorts of different ways and on pp2 working on developing his netfront game for inevitable day when hyman needs replacing as a 1st unit option.
Ugh sorry.
Goslies.
What’s unfair about it:
-> jarry that arrived wasn’t the same jarry who returned fron injury. That dog’s breakfast of their gravy train homestand with gift of lots of back to backs or 3 rd game in 4 nights was a collective sucking point that solidly showed they had no real team built and were incapable of defending leads was unfairly whitewashed as primarily a goalie related problem.
And the coach himself did not really shelter his new goalie at all thru it. While aloof about it he was garbage saving his own arse from deeper critical problems. New goalie sold out thst soon…absurd. Even in post season that comment about ingram “being our guy” like cowardly uneccessary.
If they are rightfully keeping jarry and giving him another honest shot at net -> the coach who played “blame goalie” throughout season cannot be running the bench.
End rant…will post on new thread.
•
I was talking about the ones that are already gone mainly, Skinner the most recent. But he wasn’t the first and he certainly wont be the last.
Get some defensive structure OR, get an elite goalie. If you CANT get one, then get the other.
The D group is probably good enough. A team should always look to get better players everywhere, but the focus should be in building a very competitive 3rd line
The 3rd line was the key for the panthers last playoffs, and at least one year for the Lightning Cup wins. This season the Avs 3rd line is Colton Kadri Roy as listed by DFO. At 5v5 Landeskog is 1st with 4 pts, Roy has 3, Kadri 2, Colton 1. They are producing and it makes a huge difference, they are on par with the top 6
Moonlight Mile has been on pretty consistently lately here, along with Dead Flowers. I spent yesterday listening to all the season end videos. Someone is getting Dead Flowers this off season.
God’s Problem Child by Willie Nelson has been on quite a bit lately too. Not sure who this relates too in the Oilers organization, so many choices today.
I haven’t read the comments lately so I apologize in advance as I suspect others have already noted this but based on my read of Bowman’s year end comments, the coach is far from safe. He’s comments about not putting Frederic in a position to succeed early in the year speak to a misalignment between the GM and coach on player deployment.
Yes, LT mentioned that in his article. The coach shouldn’t have a different idea on what to do with players than the GM, or what the team style of play should be. Weird that he signed Knoblauch again then this, but we also don’t know if calls are coming from inside the house. I’m starting to wonder about that again