My favourite Rolling Stones song is Tumbling Dice, although ask me in a month and it might be Moonlight Mile. In the song Tumbling Dice, the line “I’m all sixes and sevens and nines” always struck me as a key way to describe a specific situation where one is short of the needed curency. Please read this.
The mind carries things, then discovers things in poetry and prose that align themselves with carried knowledge. Years after parsing what the hell Mick was singing, I read a Douglas Hunter book called “A Life in Hockey.” It was an exceptional book about Scotty Bowman, frank and precise.
In the book, Hunter describes a moment right at the beginning of Bowman’s coaching career in the NHL. Bowman and the St. Louis Blues were struggling. The team was populated by older men who had fallen shy of NHL jobs in the original six, and were taking advantage of six new teams and 108 new opportunities in the NHL via expansion in 1967.
There was unrest among the players. Bowman was in his mid-40s, not much older than some of the players he was coaching. In fact, Doug Harvey joined the team for the playoffs and was just a couple of years younger than Bowman.
One night, after an especially difficult game, one in which it was clear unrest existed among the players, Bowman entered the dressing room and said something like ‘it’s difficult to play against a team with Kings and Aces when you’re only holding sixes and sevens and nines.” That isn’t the exact quote, but I remember it that way because of the Stones song.
Long preamble today in order to make this point: STAN Bowman is good at finding sixes and sevens and nines at low cost. Man, he’s done a pile of it since arriving in Edmonton. Kasperi Kapanen, Jack Roslovic, Josh Samanski and others we’ll see in the years to come. I’m not talking about the trades for Vasily Podkolzin, Ty Emberson, Connor Ingram and others, those moves involved players who are now or could occupy feature roles on the Oilers.
I’m talking about players who can be useful but should never cost too much. So, we then segue to Trent Frederic, who is a role player Bowman signed to a long-term deal for too much. It was not a value move.
He had something in mind, and it did not work out.
If I’m Bowman, I dig in. I double damn down. Frederic and Colton Dach formed an effective tandem late in the season. It was the talk of the town. Kris Knoblauch abandoned it, partly due to injuries to penalty killers (requiring Frederic to be a healthy scratch) and mistakes by Frederic (requiring Frederic to be a healthy scratch).
All good, but if I’m Bowman I’m bringing back Dach-Samanski-Frederic as a line. The trio will cost $6 million on the cap (or so) and that’s manageable. That line was effective in doing a specific job: keeping the puck one mile from the Edmonton net while making life miserable for opposition defensemen. The line played 40 minutes together in the regular season, 3-1 goals, 63 percent expected. One minute, 13 seconds in the playoffs together. Shame.
On the Lowdown today, we have two feature guests in Rachel Kryshak (12:40) and Jason Gregor (1:20). Heavy Oilers talk, but some on the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs, too. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
Six key questions for the Edmonton Oilers that must be solved this offseason
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7250101/2026/05/04/edmonton-oilers-roster-cap-offseason-questions-2026/
Love this!
“…and proof that the NHL has a massive middle ground of goaltenders who are differing shades of grey. None stand out.”
And the ones that do stand out —this year Vasilevsky, Swayman, Sorokin, last year Hellebuyck, Keumper— are enough to get their teams past the first round of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Dobes was not a consistent player for the Habs regular season, but is “the guy” in the playoffs. So far.
ps. I’m rooting for Dobes to be this year’s version of 1971 Ken Dryden.
Solid article, but I was surprised to see nothing about the D group. Do you think this is a Cup winning D group? I don’t. They need to be better at moving the puck. Sure the forwards need to be better positioned, but I don’t think that’s the only problem,
I think the Oilers have a strong top pairing, so strong you could run Nurse-Bouchard and Ekholm-Murphy imo and be strong.Walman-Emberson should work, Stastney is a solid young defender. Carfagna is pushing, I still like Regula.
So, yeah I think signing Connor Murphy and placing Carfagna/Regula in the mix is what I’d so. Failing that, a RH defenseman who can move the puck and play second pairing would be a strong solution.
But, I like Murphy. Would NOT have been my first choice, but he was quite good.
Is there something specific you like about Regula other than his measurables?
He’s soon to be 26, on his 3rd team and has been injury prone. Is next season his make-or-break season?
He can pass the puck and he’s RH. His max skating speed is about NHL average. He clearly wasn’t doing well in the NHL, but missed an entire season. His AHL play was much better.
Agree with LT – Regula was the Condors’ best d-man after arrival.
I’m just not sure how he gets reps on the Oilers next season – Emberson is locked in to 3RD (and he’s very good at it) and, whether its Murphy or other, 2RD its not the spot for Regula (nor Emberson).
I think Regula can play in the league nightly and maybe prosper with some consistent minutes but, unless there are injuries early, where does he play?
If Regula can’t dethrone Emberson I suggest he’s not NHL quality.
I don’t necessarily agree with that – Emberson was exceptional defensively in a 3rd pairing role this past regular season. He is a very good 3RD.
Seravelli says he talked to a few people very close to Julian Breisbois and they say there is zero chance Tampa makes a coaching change – not from Breisbois himself but it has never seemed remotely likely to me (as an complete outsider, of course).
I have forgotten how much I loved Taylor Hall.
I am loving watching him this playoffs. I would be happy to watch him lift the Cup.
Although the actual goal was a greasy goal, it was the culmination of some great patience by Hall as he held on to puck in a tight space heading towards the net (and a solid rush by Walker, he was great in the 3rd/OT).
He was the correct number one choice in the Taylor vs Tyler debate, team success played a big role in that narrative and he had little control over that. I still remember his pre-draft interviews where he was mature and knowledgeable, and I still remember a line to the effect of “I can identify the average play, and if possible, I’m not going to do that.”
I never loved how his tenure ended. You could tell he wanted to be the McDavid franchise player, but the organization (e.g. water bottle throwing coach) didn’t treat him well and when they finally were good enough to compete, he was shipped off to continue in playoff purgatory.
Nearly 30 by the time he reached his 10th playoff game. You want to talk about really shitty management? Let’s talk about how Taylor Hall was part of a series of top 10 picks, 3 1st overalls and didn’t sniff the playoffs in his first 6 seasons as an Oiler.
If it’s Carolina out of the east I will be pulling for him.
Taylor Hall with the 3-2 OT winner for Carolina.
Now with 3 goals and 9 points 6 playoff games.
49 points in 63 playoff games
Garry Galley gotta be wearing his old flyers underwear the way he’s calling this game.
Nurse is a 6,7 who is paid like a King.
Jarry is a 3,4 paid like a Jack.
Walman ranges between a 4 and a 10 but is paid like the latter.
Frederic is a 3,4 paid like an 8.
Luckily Podz is a Jack paid like a 6.
Hyman and Nuge have been Kings paid like 10’s and Jacks.
If you have a chance to jettison one or two of the overpaid contracts you free up space to add a much needed Royal into the lineup.
Are you suggesting Frederic is a 3 dressed up as a 9?
I cannot believe some really smart posters are still suggesting Trent Frederic can play a significant role on a good team. OP, you were suggesting Freddy might be able to handle 3C right after the all star break and now you’re back to having him at 3LW. It’s like Charlie Brown and the football.
Let’s also not romanticize 10 mediocre games from the fourth line to end the season. It was fine..not even comparable to the hype it’s getting. Look what Viel and co. just did to us.
He’s, by the numbers, arguably the worst full time forward in the NHL.
His 0.52 points per 60 sits dead last among guys who have play 700+ minutes. He’s there with the Freddie Gaudreaus and Paul Cotters of the league. Kevin Stenlund maybe but he’s a faceoff PK guy.
He’s has a good number of hits but they have no “lift” as Kurt Leavins said. The hardest hit he ever threw was game 1, shift 1 of his oilers tenure and he was never the same.
The very best thing for the organization to do is to be frank with him. No hard feelings but if the injury has ruined him he’ll be riding busses for the next 7 years so figure out what you need to be back to normal or this is where this is heading.
And for us armchair prognosticators slip him on as our 12/13 guy.
Both Foegel and Brown took a year to adjust, he’s got 7 more years. If he can recover some value, we need to take that chance.
Yeah, I haven’t looked in detail at any of the numbers, but no part of the eye test provides any hope with this player. I don’t see any jam. This is the kind of thing that when Connor and Leon say that everyone needs to be better, I can’t imagine they aren’t partly talking about this guy who is getting paid more than guys like Podz and is either very injured or just isn’t bringing it every night. No effort or emotion from this player. He just floats around out there with plays dying on his stick. Putrid management brought us this unnecessary self-inflicted wound. I would LOVE to know what led to this contract. It boggles the mind. Welp. Hopefully he can make some sort of miraculous turn-around. With Connor Brown, he didn’t piss a drop, but he put in effort on every shift. I don’t see the same with Freddie. Seems so vanilla, ESPECIALLY for a guy who was supposed to bring some sand paper.
No, that is not what I said.
I was pretty clear that, coming in to camp, he needs to be pencilled in to a fourth line roll as that is the level he’s re-established himself to. I further said the hope (organization’s and my own) is that he can recover further to play a 3rd line power forward role (as he has in the past) but the org cannot count on that going in to camp.
Not sure how real these Fox rumors are, not sure why the Rangers would move him. Still young enough to retool around him. The Rangers however have some other interesting pieces.
Would Nurse, Howard, and a 2nd for Trocheck and Schneider be plausible? If so, this would negate the need to sign Murphy but would leave a hole at 2LD. I think Howard will turn into a fine player but you got to give to get and having him and Savoie in an eventual top 6 is too small for my money (especially against the Ducks). Trocheck is on the wrong side of 30 but has been very consistent and is 55%+ right handed on faceoffs. Certainly a risk with his age 33, 34, and 35 seasons remaining.
To fill the 2LD gap, one FA target that seems to be flying under the radar is Ryan Shea from the Pens. Late bloomer just put up a 35pt (33 at 5v5), +30 season playing 19min per night. Would he take a show me deal at $3-3.5M/yr? Pens might have something to say about that…
I also believe McMann will be a hard target by Bowman and likely overpaid due to bidding war. Let’s assume $5.5M/yr to match Hyman.
Another player I’ve always had time for is Ilya Mikheyev. Size, speed, PK specialist. Assuming he’d take a 2-3 year deal without a NMC at $4M/yr or less to go to a contender.
Lastly, if they brought back Dach at $900k/yr, resigned Ingram to $2M/yr, and got Schneider off RFA for $3-3.5M/yr, the lineup would look like below and be $1.5-2M under a projected cap hit of $103.5M
Savoie McDavid Hyman
Podz Drai McMann
NugeTrocheck Mikheyev
Fred Samanski Dach
Ekholm Bouch
Shea Schneider
Walman Emberson
Ingram/Jerry
Overall, wayyyy too many FA signings for LT’s liking but doubt Bowman keeps his powder dry. My guess is 4 to 5 new bodies are in the 2026-2027 opening lineup.
There are over 20 NHL teams in desperate need of a 2nd or elite 3rd line centre like Trocheck. Schneider is young and plays a premium position.
Trocheck has also been pretty clear about not going West.
So your offer is a non-starter.
Isn’t Mikheyev just a less physical Kasperi Kapanen? Their 5v5 stats are pretty much identical. Kap appears to be better defensively too, by the numbers. Pretty sure you could re-sign Kap for much less than the $4M you’ve allocated for Mikheyev and use some of that savings to upgrade another position.
Agree, I liked that fourth line.
On the other hand, could you have Hutson on that line instead of Frederic? I have a lot of time for Hutson, I think there is a player there. He’s old enough that a fourth line role is fine.
Or — maybe you have Hutson as a 13th forward who regularly rotates in.
I’d prefer Jarventie on that fourth line over Hutson.
Daniel Nugent Bowman has re-appeared – he has a blog on the Oilers in Puckpedia – it’s not as doom and gloom as many fans opine.
Leon and Celeste are building a new home in Edmonton – I hope to be invited over for dinner one day.
Weird🙃
LT finally realized yours on Spotify after the show love it.
Yay!
Thanks for the info about this.
Sorry to hear about your and Karen’s loss LT. I have to say you had me worried about you personally
— had a post stuck in spam. Summary:
— Makes no sense that a non hockey guy hires both a New GM and bolts with it another executive
— Mats has no experience and in sweden 2 decades whose supposed to impart wisdom on a GM that has been out of hockey 5 years.
— unless the plan is to bottom out have them learn on job and give them rope.
— Maybe Chayka was the only candidate who sod :” yeah great hire Sundin” whereas more accomplished candidates would say “doesn’t seem like your hiring me to be GM if your also hiring other guys before I’m here”
— Not sure why they needed to hire executive firm to get two unemployed execs. Especially that with hindsight Pelly was locked in on Chayka, saying “we need analytic guy”
— unless they are bringing in other current active NHL executives.
— Hope it means another decade of frustration for leaf fans. I’m not optimistic
— To the extent the oilers “let it grow” and bring back KK oilers in trouble too soon IMO
Chayka is coming off a fairly significant suspension by the league. Suspect part of Sundin’s role is in a watchdog capacity. Rogers is not the kind of place to tolerate ethics violations amongst its highest profile managers.
As badly as things ended this season, the Oilers have nowhere near the level of dysfunction of the Leafs. Chayka and Sundin … I mean, woof that’s bad. The rumour that Tie Domi of all people was instrumental in putting these two together is even more hilarious.
Bowman should be spamming the fast food tycoon to take Nurse off our hands all summer long. Domi would approve. Maybe they’d take Frederic off our hands as well. Berube needs more truculence in his roster.
Great article by Lebrun on Tampa’s loss, where he reaches out to competing team executives who had predicted Tampa to come out of the East (as did I).
The common theme? There’s a lot of parity in the league.
“In order to get through a seven-game series, you need to play well, have good health and likely have a key break or two go your direction because with the parity in the league today it’s very unlikely that you will be dominantly better than your opponent.”
Ken Holland said that all you could do was be competitive, year in and year out. Analytics backs that up. And I think that’s all we as fans can really expect of a team.
I get why the team feels like it’s “Cup or bust.” But I think McDavid is making a mistake if he leaves this team.
This is why I was rolling my eyes when I saw posts here prior to the start of the playoffs that “the West was wide open to the conference final.”
The Oilers wouldn’t have even made the playoffs if they were in the Eastern conference. So all the teeth gnashing and clickbait BS about the Oilers going out in the first round is also so much hot air.
Now you have to define “competitive”.
With former non-competitive teams surging, what that means changes over time.
Buffalo, Montreal and Anaheim have moved into that window and seem constructed to stay there for an extended period.
Others, like San Jose, Utah and Philadelphia are also positioned to join them.
If, as Draisaitl says, the Oilers have taken a couple of steps back, how do they remain in that competitive window with a dearth of ammunition?
As long as the Oilers best players are playing well, filling out a roster – for a good GM – is allegedly the easier part. Having elite players means you start with the advantage, if you take it. Bowman needs to do some good things these next few months, as much as he can given movement clauses on long time Oiler players
You’ve hit the nail on the head, but most Oiler fans won’t admit it. This is a team in decline, even the star players are acknowledging it.
The team has no cap room to sign a significant free agent, and no draft picks or prospects that are ready to be a major contributor next year.
So what is going to keep McDavid here next summer?
It would seem many remain focused on the team having a few elite players without acknowledging team depth is well below average, very expensive with too many movement Denver boots.
Jon Cooper, after four consecutive first-round exits:
“To be honest, we have gone on such a run, at some point that run ends…”
“…I have to give the guys a ton of credit. But in saying that, at some point you’re going to run out of at-bats.”
This sounds like a guy who knows that he might not be coaching his team next year.
And if that’s the case, then we should be ALL over him.
20 39+ win seasons across leagues – including ones with only 50-some game seasons.
That’s a track record.
Imagine if this Oilers team had lost in the first round 4-years in a row.
Imagine if McDavid had ZERO points over the curse of seven game 7s (like Kucherov).
Of course, this is tongue in cheek, of course I take Jon Cooper, however people discount how successful this franchise has been over the last number of years – people fawn over the Stars and Avs and Lightning where the Oilers have crushed them all with playoff success the last number of years – Colorado is back this season but they’ve had nothing but playoff disappointment since their cup win.
Bang on.
https://americansongwriter.com/mick-jagger-had-to-learn-gambling-lingo-for-this-rolling-stones-classic/
A good article for those who love the song Tumbling Dice (how could you not?) and what exactly Mick is going on about in this timeless classic.
LT is a hopeful optimist. I am not. For me, Bowman is fully a suspect now. He inherited Tallon’s team and Quenneville made it work for as long as possible. I hope for the best, but expect the worst.
In recent years, when we’ve hoped for the best, it hasn’t turned out like always. This is not the DoD. In 2024-25, people didn’t expect much, going into the playoffs. The team went on to win 14 playoff games, which was about 10 more than expected.
Why do trades like the Jarry trade happen? Because we as a fanbase put so much pressure on the team. Sun belt teams don’t have to deal with that added complication.
Wait a sec… I was with you until it became my fault.
I didn’t ask for that trade, I didn’t endorse that trade and I certainly didn’t ask for Stan to get fleeced making that trade.
I had the oilers winning the cup that year. Put 200 dollars on the oilers cups winners that year and so close but so far away
Bowman helped Tallon build that team as AGM – unless one thinks that AGM’s have no role…..
He won the cup 1, 3 and 5 years after Tallon left and had the Hawks in 1st place in their division 7 years after Tallon left.
He re-tolled “Tallon’s team” many times with success.
That’s what I was waiting for!
While the rest of the hockey world (and a good chunk of Oilerville) gloats/moans about decline, some perspective on what’s been in process —since the already-old 2024 team missed the Cup by two goals.
Last year was the coda.
This year, the (s)tumbling dice —until Drai got hurt and the sixes sevens and nines started to fall into place.
At least Oilerville stepped to the final tread, getting to the finals two years in a row before “taking a step back” and losing in the first round. If McDrai are serious about making changes in how they play, this step back will have been worth it.
Meanwhile, in Florida, the mighty TBL with super-coach Cooper seem to have taken up residence on that first step.
The “6 7” post.
This team invested a lot to fortify it’s D Corps only to give up a LOT of goals and grade A chances against in the playoffs.
So much effort in the offseason gets focused on the forward lines and goaltending, but I’ll be very surprised if this org doesn’t make a material change on the backend.
Elkholm is getting more miles and by my eye had a weak playoff this year. Bouchard taketh and he giveth away. Nurse has never been the dominant shutdown defender that would be commensurate with his cap hit. And the obvious folly there is you don’t pay massive contracts to defensive defenceman. Walman looked great at first and looked like an ex Shark this season. Murphy looks rugged but does have some coverage lapses. Emberson is replacement level meh. That slot is better taken by someone like Akey with a higher potential ceiling than bandaiding it with a journeyman.
So, lots of room for improvement obviously. Much as Holland’s acquisition of Ekholm pushed everyone down the depth chart a rung, the Oil need a similar add now. You would expect better system play and coaching would help, and obviously some of these guys will bounce back (I’m looking at you Walman), but running it back with this entire Brady Bunch is not a team that takes winning seriously imo.
I’m with you on not paying D who can’t move the puck.
Akey, however, is barely a prospect at this point. Definitely not an NHLer.
He should’ve been traded last year, and should be traded immediately if any other org values him.
Disappointing to hear that Beau is no longer the belle of the ball.
Akey put up a good GF% in his first year in Bakersfield. Why would he barely be a prospect?
He has a solid 1st pro-season. He and Carfagna were a very effective pair from what I understand. Probably needs one more year in the AHL before he challenges for an NHL spot but he is definitely a legit prospect.
I’m very curious in regards to Adam Fox, but will fully admit I know next to nothing about him as a player nor NYRangers situation.
Is he legitimately available? I’m assuming no.
Where would he fit in on the Oilers? I’m assuming 2RD behind Bouch.
Does he PP and PK?
Assuming the foundation of the deal would be Nurse for Fox, who adds and retains what?
Reasonably, do the Oilers need to retain say $1.5m on Nurse? Do the Oilers need to add a first round pick? A Samanski?
A defense of
Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Fox
Doesn’t Matter-Emberson
Looks pretty good on paper to start the year. Upgrade or add depth at the deadline as needed.
If there’s walking around this off-season and Murphy is truly amicable to lower dollars to stay, then he replaces Emberson and we’re cooking with gas.
Yah? Nah?
Fox refused to sign in Calgary, where he was drafted. They had to trade his rights for a pittance. I doubt he’s signing with us.
And a Nurse for Fox trade would require everything you suggest plus more.
I agree that Fox won’t want to come here. And that the Oilers would have to add substantially, though I think Fox had a below standard season.
All that said, I strongly suspect Nurse has a lot more value outside Edmonton than we expect. And unless Walman improves and is able to maintain health, I also suspect his loss would hurt more than we expect.
wasnt that mainly because calgary had giordano, hamonic, and andersson ahead of him on the depth chart and he saw no path to the nhl.
Nope.
Adam Fox did not sign with the Calgary Flames because he only wanted to play for the New York Rangers, his hometown team. After being drafted in 2016, Fox used his NCAA eligibility to avoid signing, intending to become a free agent and force a move to New York, leading Calgary to trade his rights.
Fox grew up in Long Island as a Rangers fan and was determined to play for them, making it clear he would not sign with the Flames.
Recognizing he would not sign, Calgary traded his rights to the Carolina Hurricanes in 2018 as part of the deal that brought them Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin.
Fox similarly informed the Hurricanes he wouldn’t sign with them, leading to his eventual trade to the Rangers in 2019
The number of Habs fans this morning claiming some sort of “just like we planned it” about last night’s game is too damn high.
They were incredibly fortunate last night.
Historically fortunate sons.
Just like they planned it!
Maybe the Hockey Gords love them because they play in the cathedral of pro hockey?
🤮
Excuse me, sir.
You seem to be posting on the wrong “forum”.
I’m a fan of Trent Frederic, I’m not a fan of 3.8M and 7 more years with 4th line minutes.
A ridiculous contract by a GM who only makes incremental deals.
A fan of what, exactly?
You admire his indifference?
Yeah exactly. What on earth is there to like. He brings the offense of Paul Cotter. Hits lots but they have the impact of Roslovic’s hits. He fought just enough to avoid being a scratch. He doesn’t have the makeup or desperation to be a shift disturber.
And honestly his worst feature is his board play which shocks me for a huge guy.
The only hope is that he’s badly injured still but cmon.
Trent Frederic was signed to that contract to be a player ways above the 4th line. I’m told he was on the 4th line because of recovery from injury.
If next year, he is still (only) effective as a 4th line player, as suggested by LT, man, that’s a buyout contract if there ever was one.
What’s done is done. And I’ve been a huge critic of Trent Frederic this season, but even I expect improved performance from him next season.
Imo he gets one more year and then we get to celebrate our own Bobby Bonilla day
As a big baseball fan, I love that you went Bonilla as your albatross example instead of the classic hockey examples (DiPietro, Yashin. Yakupov, etc.).
Lol
At this point, Frederic recovered to establish himself as a useful 4th line winger and I think that is where he should be pencilled in coming in to camp, however, the hope should be a recovery to established 3rd line power forward levels but off-season team building cannot count on that at this point.
I rarely post anymore but watch every game and read most of the LT blog.
Anyway, I really just wanted to comment on what Maudite wrote earlier today, laying on some of the best prose I have ever read while offering up some self-evalutation that I can appreciate (and share).
I thought I would share it here because it risks getting lost in his long post below.
To quote Maudite. “reading your stinking blog entry daily is one of the rare consistent habits I’ve ever managed to form outside of mainly vice level practices.”
Thanks for the season LT/Al. And thanks Maudite.
To keep on the topic of Oilers, today, let me offer that Leon”s comments throughout the year have left me the impression that he and his teammates see the team as a live process that is forged each year, consequently is different each year and would be different even if the parts/players stayed the same. On the other hand most fans see the TEAM as a thing, like the Oiler brand or franchise or the ‘crest’ as they say in footie. Thus we are viewing the team as something to be managed, rather than forged, where forging or building the team includes putting together some new parts. Of course we can only comment on the the tangibles, the pieces we see. FWIW
I like the idea of forging, something in process. Others have talked/written about 8-10 game chunks as useful units for understanding what the team is. As per your analogy, what’s being forged. This allows for more nuance and perspective, much less catastrophizing.
Much good seemed to being forged at the end of the season (the fabled “final 11 games”). I’m looking forward to what comes next.
I think the man in charge of forging this team lost the plot from game 1.
After the switch from Woody to KK, I thought that his stoic demeanour really benefited the team; they were wailing about missed calls way to much under Woody, whose bench theatrics were not getting the desired response from the refs. The switch to KK helped to settle the team down, and they got back to the business of winning hockey games for two seasons.
I think its important to recognize that Jackson and Bowman absolutely kneecapped KK after that first Final’s run – out of the lineup in two consecutive seasons: Holloway and Broberg, who had played meaningful minutes in the 2024 Finals. And major pieces of a very effective PK corps – McLeod, Brown, Foegele, Ceci, Desharnais. They lost a guy who cared about winning, and would go to the hard areas in Perry, to sign a cap anchor in Frederic.
They signed a guy that was just a terrible fit for our roster in Jeff Skinner, and gave him an NMC to boot. This foolishness cost us Holloway.
Arvidsson was a good move, but he got injured early, and when he came back he couldn’t find a defined role on the roster. They then compounded the problem by trading Arvidsson and signing Mangiapane, who had several seasons of soft and indifferent play on record; it was the job of the pro scouts to know that he was no longer the tenacious winger that had a 30 goal season for Calgary, but rather an established pro who was happy to keep collecting paycheques for the memory of one unsustainable season.
They could’ve use the cap savings to resign Klingberg, who was a good fit for our roster. Instead, they let him go and tried to run a green rookie with chaos incarnate Darnell Nurse; they’d eventually have to trade more futures for Murphy at the TDL to settle Nurse down.
They could’ve also went into the season with the cap savings obtained from moving Arvidsson to use if a top tier goalie shook loose, but chose to blow it up on Mangiapane, then had include Kulak in the Jarry trade.
Then there was the Jarry trade – they were locked in on Jarry for months. They arrogantly thought that he was going to be a fit for their system, and just ignored years of him letting down the Penguins in crucial situations.
That last move probably could’ve been avoided if KK had shown up to game 1 of the regular season with a clear plan:
Putting Frederic on a line with McDavid and Leon? KK lost me there. If you’re going to do some early season experimenting, then you put Savoie or Howard with the glimmer twins and give them 10 games to show if they’re ready. And if you believe that Frederic could PK, then why not have him there from the start and give him a defined role for the season?
KK’s constant lineup blendering led to a complete lack of cohesiveness. They had an effective line in Podz-McDavid-Savoie to end the regular season, and KK promptly broke it up once Leon returned.
At times this year, and during game 1 we saw a team that could move the puck smartly – but that wouldn’t last more than a game or two before they fell back to stretch passes. The lack of accountability is on the coach; he refused to use the carrot of playing time to get the veteran players to play more consistently, waiting far too long to pressbox players that very obviously needed to sit and eat popcorn.
And he ended the season falling into the same trap that every other coach before him had fallen into … loading up McDavid and Leon, and hanging on for dear life that their prodigious talents would overcome a lack of commitment to systems play and defensive zone coverage.
I’d go hard after Cooper – his contract goes through to next season, but TB may feel that their roster needs a new voice after 4 years of getting bounced in the first round. Failing that, Cassidy would have the cache to improve McDavid, Leon and Bouchard’s indifference towards D-zone coverage. His teams sneaky dirty and he works the refs over hard and has a presence behind the bench.
Great summation. I say Cassidy, because Connor at least is ready for a top coach who has responsible teams that still create offense. Connor spoke of growth in the game of the top Oilers, and that is a coach that can make that happen I think
Or maybe Cooper shakes free, the Oilers win the auction, and the Bolts hire Cassidy. Maybe Cooper being from Prince George can get back on board for some nasty weather
Roll that fourth line – they can impact.
I think they would like Frederic to earn his way up to a left 3rd line roll but that’s the training camp line. Samanski needs legit PK time and Bowman continues to mention Frederic on the PK.
Nuge and Howard form the base of a third line (or, shit, actually play Howard in the top 6 and one of Podz, Kap or Hyman slide down.
This team has the incumbent players to re-set for next season – some changes, of course, but the SC playoff lineup is better than they played.
A very common theme over the last few days, from Bowman, to McDavid and Drai and now Friedman (based on his calls over the last few days) is a material change in the way the team plays and deploys – ensuring more players have a material role and bite.
Talk is cheap but look forward to this come October.
It should have happened this season. Lose in the finals twice and obviously doing the same thing will not improve results
I believe we saw this come together, at least twice this season. In the Nov 26-Dec 25 period, and more so even in the “final 11.”
It was said, often on this blog, that this was a transitional season. For his part, LT tempered expectations for this season a few months back.
Teams change. They need to. Is it ever graceful?
I don’t think it should be such a big deal. It’s not in other sports. Winning should be the priority. It’s not that players aren’t good or whatever. Nurse is not a terrible player. Nuge Hyman whoever. But fit and roster balance, age, ability to play the style the team wants to get all the way
Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ve heard this same verbal from the coach.
Perhaps but, what we have heard, its that everyone in the organization is being evaluated, including management and the coaching staff.
I don’t think there is any chance Bowman is gone (and I don’t want him to be gone, personally) and when he sits down and talks with Knob, I presume this is a part of the conversation and, if they aren’t on the same page (and it appears they haven’t always been on that same page), well, I would suspect Knob isn’t back, right?
At least next season should have a bit more stability on it. There was a ton of question marks going into the season. Remember Tomasek? I think we will have a lot more players pencilled into roles.
I know it gonna be something like
Savoie Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai Kapanen/Howard
Nuge Dickenson Freddie
Dach Samanski Kapanen/Howard
But i really hope they can find a upgrade on the top 6. Even one top 6 upgrade would go a long way
Just for conversation. I think the top 6 would be fine. The best two players in the world and with Podz getting 20g+ and Savoie with more top 6 minutes and pp time should get closer to 30g 40a. Hyman may take a step back but that’s ok. Howard likely to get 20g.
I think actually adding a strong third line player or two would be more needed. Nuge is likely one winger. If Dickinson is there then you have a fourth line not a third line.
The fourth line we have those pieces.
The top 6 is in line with the Avs, the difference being their two most productive players play together mostly. Being so top heavy I don’t think the Oilers can have pricier wingers, the Duo will have to drive their lines and get enough out of who they play with
The third line is definitely the weak link. It needs to be more productive and at least break even. I like Dickinson because he wants to play D and can PK, but he will be too expensive for a 4th line C, and not productive enough at 3C – conundrum. He also needs to play with good defensive wingers to be able to shut down top lines, which he had with the Hawks
The comparison should be Colorado and the Wild, right now those lines (Oilers) on paper and more importantly in McDavid eye’s and Draisaitl eye’s will get its teeth kicked in regularly and often throughout the season.
Adding unproven AHL players & removing proven goal scorer’s with basically the same lineup as this year won’t move the needle.
It’s literally a worse lineup than this year & nowhere near the Ducks lineup let alone Colorado’s.
I don’t see the Oilers roster as bad as many do. The Ducks won, but a healthy Oilers would have beat them. It needs some tweaks, maybe Bowman can so some good. He should start with the coaches, they were not good enough, and KK has the trend line going down – wrong tactics or the inability to instill them. Connor is 29 not 39
That’s a good an, but I don’t think Dickinson moves the needle on offense enough to keep. Plus, bottom six guys will be available on the cheap 3 weeks into FA. Or, a Hutson, Jarventie or Michaels can step in. Keeping Dickinson would coat a lot more than any of those options, imo.
I agree with you on waiting for an opportunity for top 6 help is important for the GM in the coming 10 months.
Inserting UFA Bobby McMann would be a great addition to the top 6 without breaking the bank.
I would agree. I think he’d be a great fit with Mcdavid and Hyman
Mcmann would be ideal. However I think he will break the bank. He’s too famous now like Sherwood was last year. Be nice to find the next Mcmann(challenging for sure)
I like having room to grow the roster internally. Samanski will be better next year( more muscle added in the offseason/ more experience) Fred will be better( healthy with a full offseason to train) dach may be better just growth.
Berezkin Michaels javarntie jones Poulin maybe there’s a third liner there?
Luck out with another Podkolzin maybe. Lots of options.
This lineup is worse than this year’s lineup by a lot.
Far worse…
Huh? This is this years lineup essentially other than Howard
Related to LT’s Athletic article, this would be MY offseason game plan*
*i.e. I’m not saying our management team is capable of it
Gestalt
I’d come up with my plan and then tell McDrai what I am going to do and why, instead of asking permission etc. I’d get their opinion but that’s it
Coaching
Everyone out. At the very least, the team needs a reset. Lots of evidence that we have played worse the more Coach KK has been here. I am not convinced the roster has been that much worse.Thorough search. If you think the best guy is Carle out of Denver NCAA, offer him the bag. Cassidy and Cooper (if becomes available) are obvious other top choices but maybe there is someone else that is a better fit culture wise.
Draft
I’d prioritize home run picks in the vein of Lane/Cole Hutson-like players or Russians. We have shown we can find our 3rd and 4th liners for free with college and Euro signings or minimal assets out like Podz and Kapanen. What we can’t create for free is high end players.Recoup draft capital for Stasney or Regula who seem to have shown they are likely not going to be impact players and can be replaced at low cost
Creating Cap Space
Frederic: make a decision if you’d sign him right now for $2.5M x 7 years. If not retain up to that amount and find a motivated GM who thinks their team isn’t physical enough, perhaps even Boston who had good success with the Arvi dumpJarry: pick if you like Jarry at $2.7M x2 years or Ingram at est. $2M x 2 years. Jarry may be harder to move but 6 months ago went for full cap hit + Kulak + 2nd. Some GM would hopefully be licking their chops to take him at 50% for a pump and dump later on, perhaps even retained again.Nurse: I’d actually say this is the hardest decision because his $9M is becoming less and less detrimental. I’d still move but I’m actually looking to get value back because there isn’t much in UFA to replace him. Sell to a motivated GM like say Grier who values this player type and has seen what Trouba is doing for Ducks and Jones/Fowler/H. Lindholm bouncing back in other settings. Other options are NYR (Fox would be a heist), Detroit (cap dump + Cossa), and LA.Leave 3Fs and 1D spot on your teams for entry level deals that can develop during the year so you can make an evaluation come deadline time to see if can contribute come playoffs. If not, you have accumulated real deadline space so you can get Carlsons for the price paid for Dickinsons retained.
UFAs
Resign Murphy at $4.4 x 3. Realistically not signing for less than current contract.Resign Ingram and Kapanen for $2-2.5M but no more.Resign Jones, Lazar for league min if willing.Let Dickinson, Roslovic, Henrique walk. Dickinson & Roslovic are too expensive for skills that can be reproduced by Samanski and HowardIf Malkin gets to UFA, make a hard pitch centered around opportunity. Otherwise nibble around edges
Offer Sheets
Use next year’s second as a weapon to improve your team or at least make your opponent weaker. Targets include Zelwegger/Mintyukov in ANH or Bourque in DAL for $4.6M.
Trades
The biggest but scariest opportunity to improve your team, and the one where fans are most in the dark on. The mantra would be looking at unique situations to add value i.e. desperate or weak GMs (Detroit, Holland, Drury, ?STL, Toronto now) or teams with a certain agenda to retool or address certain areas (Bos, SJ, Pitt, STL, TB). Player targets could include Cossa, Kyrou, Fowler, Kuemper, Stolarz/Woll, McCabe, Fox, Lafreniere, Karlsson, and Rust as examples in right salary matching scenarios.
Ugh sorry LT. Meant quickly to respond to late comment on last thread about blame goslie mob woukd have already run wallstedt out of town.
Degenerated into a rant but for anyone that can get past what i’ve come to learn recently is actually a very peculiar more rare form of dyslexia/reading comprehension difference in how crazy adhd/autistic math brain actually reads and processes things…technically i’ve failed every english course since grade 7 just had great teachers who tried as best they could and knew it wasn’t lazy on my end so refused to fail me because what i wrote was more important than how i wrote it unbelievably lucky for their undsrstanding….but i know to people rigidly technical english directly reflects intelligence conditioned (institutionally ignorant of different brains than there’s but ironically often perfectly comfortable with stated fact “oh i’m not good at math”…in a way the way i see things actually in some ways more limited because unlike me who can intake gist of anyone’s written statements their brain is trained to devalue anything that is not technicalky perfect…pretty sure rickibesr and i are from a close neighbourhood in neurodiverse city just he’s more rigid science/math and i’m more arts/creative brained…1 of us is a damn fine engineer by textbook definition while i do posess an engineering degree people in my 4th year when they saw me in beer gardens were excited to know what arts program i surely was now in after failing out in 1st year as they literally hadn’t seen me since…they coukdn’t believe i was actually technically in all their classes…which is why i have often said over the course of my career “i’m not actually an engineer. Like i have the paper that says i am but i copied all my assignments, never attended anything but mandatory labs, deferred most of my midterms and just had 1 make or break week a semester where i wrote 80-100% finals…not an engineer just really good at math puzzles and pressure cooker moments)
Anyway.to the few who don’t read me like i’m annoying ill thought fool. Think there is some value in stream if conciojs that burst out of other thread.
Will post it in comnent under this.
Thanks again LT for another season where reading your stinking blog entry daily is one of the rare consistent habits i’ve ever managed to form outside of mainly vice level practices.
Thanks i guess for sucking me back in every year to paying more attention to a team i surely would have stopped many years ago without covered in oil being a gateway drug to your doorstep.
You make a frustrating team actualky interesting.
Have a great summer! I’m going to try to minimize phone usage of any sort so i can get my life back on track before i have to sell my home.
Appreciate another year of high quslity distraction…i’m sure i’ll get sucked back in by end of summer.
C.
1
What goalie are “they” (or maybe “we” depending how you define hate) unfairly hating at present?
Jarry?
-> believe biggest issue is acquisition cost seemed bent over barrel steep for a much higher injury prone guy who just the previous season was on waivers and likely only reason not bought out once he passes through being his contract is buyout proof…
Worst case trade -> 1 for 1 based on 2+ million more in salary for a goalie that would be fair to say not clear significant upgrade nor even having some clutch style playoff history.
To add a 2nd seems like it should have then been some degree of retention (like we are taking the remaining 2.5 years of a buyout proof guy if you retain some of difference over life of contract).
To also add a vet completely servicable defensemen with added bonus of he’s stepped up huge for team in both of your last epic playoff runs…essentially just because that’s one of only ways possible to absorb cap hit increase….seemed bonkers. Didn’t take long to appear even worse seeing as he was flipped at deadline rightfully valued at a 2nd round pick and is now playing 2nd pair minutes on cup favourite…
The whole team wasn’t working. Yeah kulaks stats looked like he dropped off cliff but the cliff drop was who exactly is the 3rd pair playing with as bottom 3-5 or 6 forwards completely buried in defensive end with almost any shift where puck is heading in right direction ending with that rag tag group on the fly shifting off usually to give Mcbouch offensively tilted ice with which they are actuslly losing even strength scoring in…with added bonus of all these systems in place seem like they have been broken by other teams coaches.
Almost like everyone had watched this team last year in finals where a savy vet coach in maurice had done his homework following the previous finals and came back with an even better plan to mitigate elite talent impact…and all the oilers current coach seems to do about tactics is constantly change line combinations to degree surely no one outside super weapon has much of any consistency/familiarity with combinstions of teammates they are on ice with not just game to game but insanely even shift to shift….each and every game almost the only thing consistent is akin to ronald mcdonald “do you believe in mcmagic and we hope you do! Anything can happen right before your eyes! Expect the unexpected but…expect a suprise!”
Ugh. Anyway. Sorry need a coffee. But was just bothered how easy a kulak seems like he sucks narrative molded around him when sent away but a lot of pundits/bootlicks and packled fsnbase. Like none of it made sense because hyman and rnh had injuries and mcdavid was losing his minutes and coach simply refused to do anything but punish bottom 6 immediately if a goal was scored against snd mistake could be scaoegoated to one of them and they were given no real chance to offensively even try to provide 2ndary scoring ever. Just mix and match fall guys.
Like i’ve never seen a team in all the oilers permutations of cup contender mcdavid editions that was even close to as lobsided as far as captain and coaches favourites….
Like all the logical complaints of “worse that could happen” basically did happen
1 overworking top end in compressed season with olympics the key duo will not get rest in in fact be beat up from super competitive playoff tournament when they get back with added bonus of massice time zone difference and travel be worn out when games near immediateky start after.
2. Won’t stand a chance if team keeps getting played like there’s 2.5 lines and bottom 6 has no established identity come playoffs when depth scoring is often the difference in a series.
3. Yes mcdrai & probably almost any other players on a powerplay unit likely would have a 20-25+% conversion rate but it can get shutdown and it seems clear they often burn a lot of minutes not being super dangerous and the back half if a lot of those extended shifts become even more stagnant as far as movement and surely any sane strategist looking at how ineffective it was in previous finals on top of how every team coming in has cleary adjusted to shut down drai’s office or bouchbomb not aggressively contested being easy goal options would see benefit of establishing a 2nd unit. Not just in case of emergency but because the value of a lot of secondary scorers can also come from that 2nd unit. Like a guy like howard is honestly little to no value on a team run like this is. Like he can’t be added as top line offensive threat because that line needs defensive concious added to stand chance of outscoring…maybe he could work in 2nd line but only if you make a 3rd line that gets solid icetime 200 ft style or you are wasting what has become your best LW which i think i’d prefer to keep developing confidence and range of ways a threat to score beside draisaitl. Like he started doing one timers…he scored a couple fro drai’s office on a type of shot i’ve never seen him take before….like his ceiling as a top 6 power forward who is defensively sound is still developing his spot on a properly constructed team is LW on drai’s line scoring threat all sorts of different ways and on pp2 working on developing his netfront game for inevitable day when hyman needs replacing as a 1st unit option.
Ugh sorry.
Goslies.
What’s unfair about it:
-> jarry that arrived wasn’t the same jarry who returned fron injury. That dog’s breakfast of their gravy train homestand with gift of lots of back to backs or 3 rd game in 4 nights was a collective sucking point that solidly showed they had no real team built and were incapable of defending leads was unfairly whitewashed as primarily a goalie related problem.
And the coach himself did not really shelter his new goalie at all thru it. While aloof about it he was garbage saving his own arse from deeper critical problems. New goalie sold out thst soon…absurd. Even in post season that comment about ingram “being our guy” like cowardly uneccessary.
If they are rightfully keeping jarry and giving him another honest shot at net -> the coach who played “blame goalie” throughout season cannot be running the bench.
End rant…will post on new thread.
•
I was talking about the ones that are already gone mainly, Skinner the most recent. But he wasn’t the first and he certainly wont be the last.
Get some defensive structure OR, get an elite goalie. If you CANT get one, then get the other.
My God I love this post. I started reading the second sentence-like thingy and immediately thought Ricki had taken some kind of med that somewhat degraded his innate superpower a bit. Such a beautiful spectrum of the human think, speak, write process. Enjoy your summer, my friend.
The D group is probably good enough. A team should always look to get better players everywhere, but the focus should be in building a very competitive 3rd line
The 3rd line was the key for the panthers last playoffs, and at least one year for the Lightning Cup wins. This season the Avs 3rd line is Colton Kadri Roy as listed by DFO. At 5v5 Landeskog is 1st with 4 pts, Roy has 3, Kadri 2, Colton 1. They are producing and it makes a huge difference, they are on par with the top 6
Agreed on the third line.
Between McDavid-Hyman and Drai-Podz the Oilers have the foundation of good to great top 6.
So for the third line, I’m assuming it’s Nuge and whatever the GM and coach agree as the primary assignment and purpose of this line is. Tough shut down line vs outscore vs whatever.
If it’s going to be a tough shutdown type role, I have time for bring back Dickinson at reasonable cost and term. Then maybe third line foundation is
Nuge-Dickinson-XYZ
Unfortunately a third line with either or both of Nuge and/or Dickinson is not an outscoring line. Shutdown and PK yes but likely finishes even or underwater in 5v5 GF/GA.
They had a positive GF/GA 3rd line center under 25yrs that could fly. I didn’t like the Savoie trade at the time and still don’t but still cheering like hell for Savoie.
Nevertheless, I agree with SS. An outscoring 3rd line would work wonders in achieving the ultimate goal. I’m not sure it’s possible through FA, perhaps trade? Suspect they’ll be a big push/overpay for McMann to try and build exactly that.
Of note, that 3rd line centre under 25yrs had the following GF/GA in the playoffs as an Oiler:
1-2
4-6
4-5
4-12
He is 3-6 so far this playoffs for Buffalo.
In McLeod’s final 3 seasons as an Oiler, when on the ice at 5 on 5 without Leon, he was 68-69 goals in the regular season.
I’m not hear to bash Ryan McLeod, I liked him as an Oiler and I still do but lets not over-state his work as 3C, in particular in the playoffs.
Moonlight Mile has been on pretty consistently lately here, along with Dead Flowers. I spent yesterday listening to all the season end videos. Someone is getting Dead Flowers this off season.
God’s Problem Child by Willie Nelson has been on quite a bit lately too. Not sure who this relates too in the Oilers organization, so many choices today.
I haven’t read the comments lately so I apologize in advance as I suspect others have already noted this but based on my read of Bowman’s year end comments, the coach is far from safe. He’s comments about not putting Frederic in a position to succeed early in the year speak to a misalignment between the GM and coach on player deployment.
Yes, LT mentioned that in his article. The coach shouldn’t have a different idea on what to do with players than the GM, or what the team style of play should be. Weird that he signed Knoblauch again then this, but we also don’t know if calls are coming from inside the house. I’m starting to wonder about that again
Hmmm… I may be wrong, but I thought Bowman was pretty high on Fred getting lots of opportunities higher in the lineup, in his preseason comments.
As for the regular mind-reading /tea-leaf-reading about GMSB and coach KK (mis)alignment, (as well as most of the coach-doubting in the first round) maybe it’s a case of “we don’t know what we don’t know?”