The city of Edmonton is fueled by rumours about the Oilers. It’s true. I went to my butcher one day years ago, and was greeted with “I talked to my buddy who is doing some roofing for Daryl Katz and Mike Babcock will coach next year.” I did what any good Edmontonian would do, bought four steaks and pondered the idea while walking back to the car. Please read this.
The interest level of the fan base is incredible. The modern Oilers fan takes it all in, and delivers an intelligent conclusion. Most of the time. This is an emotional game and the Oilers are a team that inspires great passion, so there are moments when things drift from rational to something else.
Rational thought aside, there are about one million general managers, and about 80 percent of those managers want to fire the coach at any given time. The biggest rumour out there today is Kris Knoblauch being fired.
The coach doesn’t line match, he put 97-29 together opening night with Trent Frederic, a level of decision making we’ve not seen since Pat Quinn. That said, he had the team running well for the final 11 games of the season. Edmonton outscored opponents 23-19 at five-on-five, with a .911 save percentage. The power play was 7-1, the PK 1-4. Edmonton scored 31 and allowed 24 in those games. Against Anaheim, the group went 21-26 due to brutal (0-8) penalty kill.
The team added Leon Draisaitl for the postseason and stepped into an elevator shaft. How does that happen? Well, there were injuries, and the coverage was poor and the turnovers returned along with the addiction to stretch passes.
Oilers fans blame the goalie too often. I get it, Dom Hasek never played here, nor did Bernie Parent. However, you develop a past. The most important development of the offseason may come with every man on the roster buying in to a defensive style that works for every line. I don’t think that happens.
If the Oilers win the Stanley, the team will have to do it with two distinct systems and the depth lines sitting for long minutes at a time. The players, coaches and management can say they’ve turned over a new leaf, and even have some impressive results for 11 games. However, the Anaheim Ducks proved a determined bunch with a good scouting report and the ability to game plan has a chance against the Oilers. Same as it ever was. Maybe this team needs a coach who is obsessed with numbers and strategy, gaining an edge in any way possible.
On the Lowdown today, Rachel Kryshak (12:40) and Jason Gregor (1:20) will be our headliners, and we’ll talk Oilers, Elks, Jays and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
The Edmonton Oilers’ present, Connor McDavid’s future and everything that’s at stake
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7268135/2026/05/11/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-contract-future/
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
League sources say #Oilers have sought permission to interview Bruce Cassidy as they contemplate significant coaching staff changes.
To this point, sources say
@GoldenKnights
have withheld permission from division rival.
Gamesmanship? Perhaps. Mostly unprecedented for role.
Update:
“Sources said Vegas had not outright denied permission for Edmonton to interview Cassidy, but had more so kept the Oilers waiting as they continue playing their second-round series against Anaheim. Cassidy is also a target of the Los Angeles Kings’ vacancy.”
https://www.hockey247.com/2026/05/12/frank-seravalli-edmonton-oilers-bruce-cassidy-withheld-permission-vegas-golden-knights
This is the guy the Oilers should hire for their next head coach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Carle
I believe he’s unlikely to leave Denver for anywhere other than the Avs job as Bednar’s successor. My info is from a colleague/client who is an alumni of UD and retains strong connections to the program.
Whew, glad the Oilers passed on Walstedt – he just Koskinen-whiffed on a muffin shot.
Unrelated to today’s discussion but I just saw that new prospect Tomas Cibulka has been named to the Czechia world championship team.
We have been talking about running 4M lines for years and they still do t do it. Until they do and play two way they will not win.
What are 4M lines?
The NHL reffing is ridiculous. Manson just deliberately butt ended a minny player in the face, the rulebook is clear, that’s a 5min major and misconduct. IF the player attempts and misses, thats a double minor.
They gave him a double minor, of course, because game management.
Louis Debrusk is painful to listen to, his verbal gymnastics instead of just saying what everyone, including him, clearly sees, is baffling.
You could tell they were gonna talk themselves out of it. He should be suspended
Ya, that was nonsense. And the review took far too long.
Canes just signed Jankowski to the contract Frederic should have been signed to. A 4th liner who scored 10 goals and 11 assists this year. Guess how much and for how long?
Certainly not 8×3.85…
2 years at 1.85 per
The Frederic signing perhaps the first of Bowman’s numerous fireable offenses. What was he thinking?
Nope.
Bowman officially took over on July 24th 2024
He declined to match the Broberg/Holloway offer sheets on August 20 2024.
He had almost a month to deal with it.
Fact!
The first wild decision was to use our limited assets to trade for a player currently out with a high ankle sprain. The mind boggles.
Then after Frederic shows absolutely nothing in the playoffs, they sign him for 8 years…
I’m not sure where but accounts are the Seravelli is saying Bouchard had a concussion in the playoffs.
I believe he got rocked hard in game 1. Stauffer on 100% hockey with Shannon and Millard said he doesn’t think Bouchard was right all series – I was surprised to hear he was going to the worlds after listening to that.
Can’t imagine the Oilers medical team would allow that, and they are trained to watch for the signs since players sometimes aren’t forthcoming about their symptoms. I didn’t hear the broadcast, but I did see some reports that stated Seravalli was offering his opinion, i.e. that he thought Bouchard could have been playing with a concussion.
Listened to the spot now.
Seravelli said, along the lines of “maybe you can confirm, but I think Bouchard had a concussion”. Stauff responded with “I can neither confirm nor deny but I will say he got absolutely belted in game 1”. Stauff then went on to talk about Bouchard playing through significant injury two playoffs in a row and Seravelli said that he’d been told Bouchard had a concussion and believes that to be factua.
Thanks. I think both may not be considering the impact their thoughts (rumours?) have on the public’s perception of the Oilers medical team, especially the AT’s and Dr’s who have designations and requirements to comply with the NHL protocols in place. So that’s why I kind of take these things with a grain of salt. Not to say Bouch wasn’t playing through some sort of injury, I just can’t see them allowing him to play through a concussion, or even how he could play with a concussion in the first place.
Forget about wins and losses. The team played poorly in both wins and losses. When winning, the team talent persevered coving problems.
If they run it back the same next year do they get past Montreal or Ducks high octane play?
Not likely. But with new coaching style they might.
Do they get past Carolina or Colorado?
Running out the same thing, no way they past these guys.
Knoblauch has had plenty of players he could not use or could not get performance out of. He could not build a third line nor a fourth line. He could not assign ownership of roles. He could not find a system to counter the aggressive forecheck.
With this in mind, would you go forth “as is” so you can be safe and not worry about a step back? You are a step back. There is nothing to lose.
This was a bad season, but it could have been so much worse. The number of times that McDavid pulled a rabbit out of his hat in the third period for the Oilers to win after losing the first 40 minutes handily was truly remarkable.
He really had a spectacular year filled with highlights. Maybe even the best season of his career in that regard. I mean, he didn’t finish with 138 points, for the second highest total of his illustrious career by accident.
I don’t recall all those times, but it was probably 5-7 games over the course of the season. Maybe more.
The Oilers finished the season with 93 points. But if it wasn’t for McDavid heroics in those comeback games the total could have been closer to 79 or 83 points.
The 79-83 point range would have put the Oilers right there with Winnipeg and Seattle in the standings. One point up on the Toronto Maple Leafs who just won the 1st overall pick.
It was a bad season, only somewhat saved by McDavid going supernova in the final 20 or 15 or 10 minutes of game to make us believe that the season wasn’t a total shitshow.
If there is going to be a shake up in the Oilers front office, what’s the take on Shane Doan? Could he handle the GM role, or is he still in need of seasoning?
I saw that he walked away from the Leafs FO.
This is the year 2026. The only qualified GMs are lawyers or people with deep hockey analytics backgrounds.
If you’re still hiring your GM based on “good ‘ol hockey boys” mantra, your team is probably going to lose out over time.
LT was talking about that the Oilers probably aren’t necessarily using the analytics their department generates. And some other teams, and that we are seeing teams that do are still in the playoff hunt like the Canes
I don’t know if that’s true about the Oilers, I do think analytics are an important tool and should be used. But what are they good for? Did the Canes find Hall based on his stats from the Hawks? I doubt it
When the Canes took Stankoven for Rantanen I imagine they looked at his PuckIQ, which was good. He wasn’t particularly productive at the time of the trade. I don’t think that they went on stats as the main factor for either player
Stankoven is a buzz saw, always has been, he fits Rod’s style very well, I think that was the main factor and the stats showed him well. Hall is a determined player, has size and has skill of course. And was happy with 3.1M which I think was a main factor in keeping him. To me this seems more like pro scouting and the cap than analytics
Analytics I don’t think says as much about established higher profile players. Injury history says more like for Mangi, who has not been the same player since shoulder surgery. That was a pro scouting mistake by the Oilers. His Puck IQ with the Caps was actually quite a bit better than the other bottom 6 forwards, so stats would say he was performing better than his peers in the same situation
Stats are most helpful finding blocked players, good players on the outs, things like that – value, pure Billy Beane. Where I think analytics teams are getting the advantage is in using stats to structure play. There is an article on the Athletic about the large difference between goalie results east and west. I have commented that I think east teams play playoff style hockey all of the time, many west teams tighten up for playoffs. For those with an account:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7256329/2026/05/06/nhl-playoffs-best-goalies-2026/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=5941478&source=dailyemail
It would seem that east teams are playing in a way that supports their goalies. Perhaps there are more high end goalies in the east, but team play has to be a factor. Also, the top 5 goalies in the article, all in the east, aren’t in the playoffs
“Goalies who face a higher volume of outside shots excel in these advanced metrics, suggesting those shots from distance are overvalued, and high-danger attempts, such as backdoor screens and low-to-high one-timers in the slot, aren’t valued enough.”
Some coaches may have learned what scores better without stats, but with what’s available if teams aren’t structured to increase scoring odds and reduce higher danger chances against they are dinosaurs. This is where I fear the Oilers aren’t using stats. Knoblauch focuses on chance suppression, and at times they do it
But to me the offense does not use stats driven tactics, or if they are trying to he can’t get them to do it, which for me is just as bad. I don’t think he is using a stats driven approach, just by how they play and what they try to do. Way too many point shots usually. Also in how they struggle when the N zone is marked, and when the D zone has a collapsed team in the slot
What you try should be based on what you’re given. When teams let the Oilers play how they want to, they lose. But many teams have the Connor defense down now. There needs to be a counter, we haven’t seen one yet
Great post.
I’ll add … how many goalies are waiting to push across their crease to stop Leon’s executioner shot? And yet, McDavid keeps trying to force a pass over to Leon’s office … it works when teams are playing loose, but in high leverage situations, when the other team is well-prepared for it, they didn’t have much of a counter. At some point the coach needs to step in there and get them to change tactics.
Why didn’t they get Roslovic out there to give PP1 a different look? … he could’ve been lined up to onetime it from the other side, the way Letestu used to.
The data that you posted in regards to how many PP goals the team would score in the first minute of a PP vs the second minute, I think reinforces that … teams playing loose let that cross seam pass from Connor to Leon through … and BAM … PP goal.
A data driven coaching staff would be asking these questions, and not just assuming that having PP1 out there for two minutes is a winning strategy.
The lack of any net front presence is just galling … the only one with any interest in going there is Hyman. The opposition can collapse into the protect the slot mode because no one is front of the net to create some havoc. So many unscreened point shots … so many low percentage plays in the offensive zone. Traditionally, this is role of players like Frederic to park himself in front of the net?
On the other end, the opposition was routinely getting behind our defensemen. Nurse probably had as many deflection goals go against us than our whole teams scored for us.
They were just a bad team all season long, with one stretch at the end of the season where they achieved mediocrity. The coaching strategy all season long was baffling.
Cassidy should’ve been hired last week.
I agree. Do they wait for KK to grow or take developed. I don’t care about coaches with a Cup don’t win with another team since oldy times. Best available
Coaching has to change. Identity has to change.
While the Oilers represented successful the other teams were getting better, changing, copying, adapting. Florida and Oilers were just passed.
The worst thing Oilers can do is show up in the spring with the same old. Coach gave his best, hes not going pull anything new, it will be old habits. And if players don’t listen, he has no ability to correct them.
Look at the speed out there. McDavid started it ten years ago. Now those kids who were watching McDavid have arrived. The math says Oilers are fast. The math is skewed. The Oilers can be fast. The first period of the first round this year – that team was unstoppable. However, they did not have that game in except in brief flurries.
Now Oilers must look around and copy. They need speed. Quick outlets and aggressive forecheck.
Our Defence are being criticized for not moving the puck. To who? Wingers have blown the zone and are covered
Biggest weakness, Oilers are only half a team. Top end and spare parts. Need a coach who can mold a team together.
Fantastic
+1
It seems odd that this isn’t obvious to all… perhaps the brass are working back channels but it feels like it’s gonna end up as always
I didn’t put much stock/hope in that last 11 games. Celebrating victories over Chicago, Vancouver, Seattle, a SJ team losing their momentum, going 1-1 against Utah, etc. felt like insufficient cause for optimism when placed against the evidence of the previous 71. I don’t think Knoblauch had a good answer for any of the big problems all season, which is much too long of a time to look like the deer in the headlights he resembled from early-season to playoffs. React, man!
That said, I blame management more than coaching for the decline of the last two years. But a corollary of “you can’t fire the players” is that “firing a GM can’t reverse their mistakes” because the players (and their contracts and our lack of assets) remain. The biggest change you can make is to the coaching. If Cassidy wears out his welcome/is tuned out by the players after two years, great! That’ll mean they may have listened to him for two years, which, at least for the moment, seems like all the time we have left for the current configuration.
At the very least, I don’t worry about what we lose if we lose Knoblauch. I think we’ve gotten all he has to give for the moment. Let him go elsewhere to gain more and different experience, develop his intangibles/mojo/ability to react in a less do-or-die environment. I hope he gets that chance.
OK good I though it was just me. I saw posts about ‘the switch has been flipped’ and wondered what that was referring to. I’m just a fan a long way from Edmonton so I could be way off base but I would have to guess that the mismanagement of this organization from 2015 to today has to be one of the most unfortunate stories in all of sports. Damn.
Why limit the start to 2015?
Nope it wasn’t just you; lots here and elsewhere were going on all season long about how the Oilers have started slow in seasons past and then turned it on by the time the playoffs rolled along. The degree overconfidence in the Oiler’s blog community had people boasting that they’d rather play Anaheim, because it would be “boring to beat the Kings again.”
Blissfully ignoring the fact that the 11 game “heater” at the end of the season wouldn’t have gotten the Oilers into the playoffs in the Eastern conference.
Just blissfully ignoring that the new additions/signings in Frederic and Mangiapane were terrible … but no you say, it takes a whole year for a high ankle sprain to heal … is that what Frederic was doing in the pressbox in the playoffs? Mangiapane has value … any day now, he’s going to be shipped out … wait, we needed to send a first round pick to make that happen?
Nurse – I mean it’s been years now that he’s shown the inability to mentally process the game when the intensity ramps up, and people have been twisting themselves into a pretzel defending him. Some are still worried about the optics of telling him to hit the road.
McDavid/ Draisaitl just paying lip service to defending, while constantly flying the zone, going 1-on-3, and sending low percentage backhand passes cross ice. KK just doubling down on the lack of accountability by playing them 2 mins on the PP and sending them out to PK as well. No one else had a role on this team. Why exactly did they need to extend him so early in the season?
Can’t pick up a goalie off waivers cause Pickard is good in the room. But hey, let’s bring in someone who rubs everyone the wrong way in Jarry because he “fits our system.” What’s that you say … we don’t have the cap space to make that move despite being zeroed in on him since the summer, and everyone and their grandma knowing we needed an upgrade in net? No problem, we’ll send Kulak out and a 2nd round pick for a goalie that literally no one else wants. Wait, don’t we have Ingram in the minors … what’s that you say, he’s not ready for a showcase because of … some vague reason … but was somehow ready a few weeks later.
Letting St. Louis walk away with our top two young players that the organization drafted and spent years developing. Trying to justify the embarrassment of letting that happen … but, but, but Bowman got Podkolzin (as if ripping off the most inept management team in the NHL makes up for getting bent over by the Blues).
So many people carrying water for these fools … and that’s just the Bowman era.
THIS!!!!! Great Post! Thank you!
I am not saying Bowman is amazing but Holloway and Broberg were not in his era.
If Podz was such an easy rip off, 30 other teams would have done it.
He was the GM and made the decision not to match. I’m not giving him slack on this decision. And yes, that’s with acknowledging that the sequence of events that led to the double offer sheet were not his sins. But I doubt he lets Armstrong wedgie him like that if they were his picks.
They weren’t his picks, so he didn’t value them the same, and he didn’t match. But they were the organization’s picks and letting the Blues steal our top two drafted and developed players with an unprecedented double offer sheet should never have been allowed. The fact that those two are now a first pairing LD and a first line LW, and the return was a 2nd, two 3rds and Paul Fischer (who is looking more and more like he’s not going to sign with the Oilers ala John Marino), and this one single decision has likely sewered the Oilers window of contention.
Bowman could’ve matched the contracts, as a team can be 10% over the cap in the offseason, then LTIR’d Kane to start the season, while they found a team to offload his contract. Vancouver was not on his NTC, and they would eventually take him one summer later for the same 4th round pick that the Oilers sent to Vancouver for Podz.
Ultimately, they chose to keep Kane over Holloway and Broberg. That’s on Bowman as he was the one in charge during that crisis. And yes I know the rebuttal … how do you know Vancouver would have traded for Kane that summer? … I don’t … but I’m not getting paid millions to figure that problem out. Bowman is … and he totally failed.
Exactly…he had plenty of time to explore his options and went with the worst possible one.
Me neither.
A good 11 games means a poor 71 games. Which is more likely to occur looking forward.
Change out two players and expect better?
Biggest change they can make is new coach, new style.
A nice piece on why Connor Murphy would be worth targeting for a new contract.
https://oilersnation.com/news/why-the-oilers-should-make-re-signing-connor-murphy-a-top-priority
I am not sure I agree with his ideas for Walman continuing on his off-side if there were 3 RDs (Emberson, Bouch, Murph) and 3 LDs (Walman, Ekholm, Nurse).
I do like the idea of Walman-Bouch, Ekholm-Murphy, Nurse-Emberson, provided Walman has a strong start to the season
Yeah I honestly wouldn’t touch the D. Lots of options for pairings
Nurse/Murphy were:
8-6 goals in the regular season
7-3 goals in the playoffs
Both samples saw them out-run their expected goal share but, well, sometimes players, tandems, lines do that with sustain.
At this point, I would plan to play those two together at 5 on 5.
The Kris Russell formula works sometimes
Us trading for 50% of the top pk unit in the league and then proceed to not be able to pk is definitely on the coaching staff. I know people were excusing the loss due to injuries but we didn’t have problems scoring
I agree. I have listened on radio that the coach is fine, then hear them go on to criticize Buffalo’s coach for their bad PP. Which one is it, players or coaching? It’s some of both of course, but it’s the coaches job to coach the guys he has and get the most out of the group
I know you don’t like Bowman, but Knoblauch didn’t really try to integrate new guys. He didn’t engage anybody outside of the top 3 forwards and top pair. Which is part of why the PK was not good. Injuries sure, but that shouldn’t mean mostly team wide poor play, even if they still lose more games because of injuries
No GM can go out and get exactly what they want. The coach has to get the most out of what can be had as time goes. I’m not seeing that, I see a team still defined by what 3 elite players can do. Which is why I don’t buy that Knoblauch got them to two finals. Almost any coach could when those 3 are blowing things up. Same for Stu, mostly along for the ride
The Canes are good because of team play, and this playoffs Andersen is hot. Their best players is a defensive D. The Oilers ‘should’ be a wagon like the Avs. Actually better, because they can ice two lines with an elite player at C
very good
We are aware the avs were knocked out 2 of the last 3 years in the first round and the other was knocked out in the 2nd round.
Acting like the Avs have been some revelation in the league for years while ignoring the real results is dishonest.
Are they a good team? Yes. Have they been a wagon for years? No.
Agreed but we have to go back through every playoff and see who was injured for context. I don’t want to
Remember Thornton’s San Jose Sharks?
This sounds strikingly familiar:
“Because the Sharks played such an aggressive style, their goalies (Nabokov, Niemi, Jones) were often left to face “high-danger” chances—breakaways or cross-crease passes—rather than a high volume of easy shots.
Speculation: Many fans wondered if the goalies were actually “bad” or if they simply lacked a defensive system that protected them. Evidence suggests it was the latter; when the Sharks’ defensive structure broke down in the playoffs, it tended to break down spectacularly, leading to the “implosion” narrative”.
🤔
Hmm…
Interesting, because where Thornton and Marleau clearly underperformed was in their offensive production, which was quite below regular season standards, especially in Joe’s case.
https://bfarrell27.substack.com/p/how-finishing-or-lack-thereof-denied
So this narrative that the team (or its leaders) were porous defensively seems a bit odd.
Definitely a shame and hard to explain why the Sharks couldn’t score when it mattered most. It’s fair to criticize them for that over a fairly large sample, although they generally continued to drive play and possession (by eye and metrics).
But of course, the posters on here calling Thornton and Marleau losers, are presumably the same ones who have turned on McDavid, or would pick Robert Horry over Charles Barkley…
What happened to the other replies? Did someone behave badly?🤣
Leon is at soccer games in Europe. Connor already with a week in drinking wine in Utah and back walking Lenny.
These guys are living their spring life and will recharge and re-set if time and with a renewed sense of urgency re: the regular season. This includes commitment to a more responsible team structure – helping the goalies.
Walkman’s and Frederic will both have better health and be better.
Jarry will be re-set. He was .909 in Pit – that goalie ks in there and with the committed team structure, both goalies will be better.
Whatever coach is running the show will commit to more involvement consistently.
Even with “improvements around the edges”, the current roster, fully rested, re-set, trained up and committees, well, they are a better team than this year.
Yes, they “were average” but I would suggest it was more them “playing average” and because of that nothing came easy, they chased from day 1, they lacked the push and they got hurt.
Yes, they need to get better and I’m confident they will, even although major roster changes.
This. Take a breath Oilerville. Enjoy the summer.
Was Connor checking out Utah? Does he want to beat Matthews there? Do they want to go there together.
Utah has an aggressive owner, and perhaps the best and largest prospect pool in a generation.
Matthews to Utah for Toronto makes so much sense. It would make sense for the Oilers too if they wanted to reboot right now around Draisaitl.
From Margin Call, “Be first, be smarter, or cheat”.
Utah is an unusual choice for a summer vacation when time and money are of little concern. Even if it’s not the current plan, you have to imagine, he’s checking out the place.
Are you kidding?
Its an amazing part of the world (the area of Utah near the ARI and Nevada borders.
This is the same resorts they went to last year and, if you check it out, well, its about as stunning as it gets.
Ya, some strange posts here. That result is unbelievable, incredibly expensive, a stones throw from Lake Powell, 30+ degree days and easy to get to. But ya, he’s there checking out Utah as prep work for playing for the Mammoth….never mind that it’s a 6 hour drive from SLC 🙄
And apparently Matthews and McDavid met over the weekend.
The game is afoot Watson.
Of course, if one was to do any diligence, they would know that was a 2-year old picture that started floating about.
The game is not afoot https://x.com/JeffVeillette/status/2053606664855601663?s=20
Atop the Mammoth prospect pool are two young blue chips centres, Tij Iginla and Caleb Desnoyers.
Both project as top 6 centres of which Utah already has Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller and Barrett Hayden
They can’t go to the same team, it’s not the NBA. Getting one would gut a team, nothing left to trade. Neither the Laughs or the Oilers want a rebuild, so picks are not going to get it done
Not suggesting they would both end up there but they well might coordinate strategy.
The point of LT’s post just flew right over your and DSF’s head, didn’t it?
Connor also has been to Cancun with Leon. I hear that Liga Mexicana Elite de Hockey have also been tampering in an attempt to sign him…
I also heard a rumour that he and Marner made a pact at 4 Nations last year to head to Vegas. And if neither Utah and Vegas work out, he is also a fan of the Gobi and the Sahara deserts…
That would be interesting. But what would Utah need to give up if they acquired both of Matthews & McDavid in respective trades. Would they have much of a team left for the two superstars to play with?
The same resort they went to last year prior to McDavid re-signing with the Oilers for a contract that has not even kicked in yet.
I’ve been wondering how much of RNH’s decline is just the lack of off-season training catching up him.
That’s a good point. RNH is pretty lean/slight, plays a lot of minutes, and has played several long seasons in a row, with grueling and punishing playoffs included, which means less time to recoup. Plus, he’s in his 30s and with kids now, and long travel playing in the west. Add it all up and it’s easy to see how he might be getting worn down. The wear and tear has to be having an impact. This 4 month break will do wonders.
Aside from Bruce Cassidy – who my understanding is regarded as a good coach who is also hard on players with a short shelf life – who are the best candidates out there to coach?
If it not Cassidy, there’s no point changing coaches. Only a clear upgrade makes sense
Agreed, and they would still have the mid season Laviolette option if Knoblauch doesn’t improve
Maybe they could get Torts he’ll probably get fired from VGK by that time. Then he could come and sort things out in Edmonton.
Torts is not the Droid
Waste another half season being worse than they should be? We’ve seen this movie.
I think this is slightly unfair because fans can only really assess coaches and GM wth long or multiple tenures. Otherwise, I think coaches and GM candidates can be best summed up by “we don’t know what we don’t know”.
It’s much easier for a fan to assess a player but it’s harder to know what exactly coaches and GMs are responsible for i.e. a GM may be amazing b/c there is a great existing analytics department or innovative AGM they lean on or a coaches success is driven by the assistant getting the most emotionally out of a team. Vice versa being derailed by a bad support group. It gets even murkier for us to know about assistant coaches or GMs or coaches in other leagues.
A GM and HC are where the buck stops. We can just look at what the results are. In a shorter term things being worked on may not have panned out yet. This is more true of a GM as their process takes longer. Someone was talking about Adams and Buffalo, their success is coming from the players he put together, got canned before it happened
Koblauch has had two full seasons, and while this season was likely not going to have a deep run, the goal stats are trending in the wrong direction. That is highly concerning for a team with the players the Oilers have
I am simply pushing back on “if not Cassidy, there’s no point changing coaches”. I also think Coach KK should be replaced. But I think there’s likely other coaches out there worth looking at it who may be even better than Cassidy but fans don’t have access to the info necessary to evaluate them.
Are they all given the same analytics department that identifies optimal roster deployment and tactics? Does their GM listen to their opinion for who to acquire or promote from the AHL? Do they truly get to select their coaching staff? Other just as important things that we don’t even think about etc.?
For Coach KK it’s easier for us to evaluate these questions because we are in this market and lots of rumours fly. But we don’t have answers to these hugely important questions. While Cassidy very likely is a good candidate because we can see he has duplicated his success across multiple teams, we aren’t privy to there potentially being better or at least other good options in other organizations.
— from the exchanges in previous threads there are 2 branches of Cup winning coaches
1) new to NHL as head coach but great results in some combination of in minor leagues, teams affiliated head coach, assistant NHL coach
2) a veteran in prime head coach who has had success with other teams and is able through the right time and circumstance coach up a team to win.
— I’d argue we’ve had a few from bucket 1 and either abandoned them early or they weren’t the right hire and we’ve never had one from bucket 2.
Todd Nelson.
Gerard Gallant, depending on health.
Todd Nelson. He coaches to the players and talent available. He is a Jon Cooper who is lousy at interviews and wears poorly tailored suits.
Could it finally be Todd’s time…???
He’s an everyman’s coach that Todd Nelson.
The problem I have with bringing back KK is this … we’re going into a critical off-season, where the only way to improve is going to be by making some astute free agent signings, or by way of trades, where the player(s) coming back may have a NTC/NMC.
If I’m these players (or their agents), the way KK was rolling the lines after Leon came back would give me pause … 2 minute long shifts for PP1, with PP2 being thrown scraps, all season long. The glimmer twins on the same line getting all the playing time at the end of games, despite clearly being hobbled with injuries, with the rest of the team sidelined on the bench. Nurse getting endless minutes, despite both the eye test and math telling us he was drowning.
Multiple UFA vet forwards signed and traded for … Arvidsson, Skinner, Mangiapane, Frederic … which the coach couldn’t find a use for in our lineup.
If I’m a player contemplating a move to Edmonton, I take one look at what the coach there was doing last season and say no thanks if the Oilers decide to run it back.
A lot of Edmonton media are saying it’s the players. Tried lots of coaches, never changes etc. I don’t agree. All coaches at the NHL understand systems. They don’t always choose the right way for their team to play based on the roster, I think that’s the case with Knoblauch
I think it does matter who the coach is. McLellan made a big difference in Detroit, and I think if he was with the Oilers now he would do well. When he was, Connor and Leon weren’t ready to play how he wanted them to. I don’t think any of the other coaches in the last 6 or whatever were a good choice, either lacking experience or the right personality
The top coaches aren’t that because of tactics. They of course can do that well, but the essence of what makes them great is people management. The whole roster needs to be engaged, and the coach has to manage the mood of the group, while also knowing when and how to push, when to back off. That should show on the ice and in results
We aren’t seeing that now, the team was way off all season. KK is a nice guy, that’s not enough for sports at this level. Not that they would have gone deep necessarily, but they could have had a more positive vibe and played better than they did as a team. If Cassidy is better at that I make the change
Disagree on TMc.
His offensive system was predicated on shot volume from the perimeter and the defensive mainstay was off the glass and out.
I wasn’t saying he is the answer, he also didn’t have the roster to do much, and two stars that weren’t into that two way thing
Someone mentioned a McGuire interview a while back, Pierre thought he PO’d flattop, went to see him after the scrum. Coach had dropped his head at a question, told PM it wasn’t him, just that he was frustrated he couldn’t get them to play better defensively, they weren’t into it
Thoroughly Mediocre Coach’s team has collapsed in the spring two years in a row.
He misevaluated and destroyed the elite talent pool that had been drafted in LA.
He begged for players to win now that saw the exodus of Faber, Durzi, Valardi, etc.
He’s the GM, too?
Wow, he’s pretty bad at his job if he’s sewering the entire roster just by being on the bench.
I’d like to start a new rumour. Fire themall.
The stink starts at the top. Jeff Jackson never should have been hired in the first place. I’d start with him. Then let the new hire find a GM who has a sense about cap management. Hint: the current and past gms have no idea about cap management.
When you have 2 of the top 5 players in the league making the salaries they do, then you add in a top 5 d, and another ‘paid like he is’ top 5 d, you need to be very conscious of the cap and building from the draft and development to support the top of the roster.
There are so many fireable offenses from Jackson and Stan already that changing the coach out will just deflect the blame away from where it should begin. You have the summer to get it right. You don’t need to be a part of July 1 proceedings. And letting Stan have another round of overpays for 8 years will be a mistake the team will pay for well after McDavid has left town.
Find a new team motto (vision, approach, and process) because the old motto: ‘let’s see how many bad contracts, drafts, and trades’ can McDavid’s brilliance bandaid over’ hasn’t worked, shockingly.
Yeah I would try and grab a GM out of Florida or Carolina. Brett Petersen of FLA or Darren Yorke of CAR. Both teams great with the cap and progressive.
Prefonmich – I love this rumour! And thank you for the vision and gumption in stating it so boldly and clearly and avoiding the dilly dallying of what I see is the obvious approach, as it’s the only sensible way forward to keep the window even remotely open and keeping 97 and 29 here. They will follow a logical, sensible and firm way forward, because as it is, no one seems to be on the same page. I would not want to work for this coach or management.
Otherwise we may see these incredible and dedicated players move on and a tear down like they experienced in Montreal, which has apparently worked (but took a few years). It really is where the rubber hits the road
This!!!! But we all know Jeff gets replaced by Paul, only after doing their due diligence of course😉
This all has to be accomplished in short order too, we saw what not having a GM in place at the end of the playoffs accomplished right.
Tippet to woodcroft (woody to knobby) [knobby this season]
GP: 44 -> 38 (13-69)
[82]
23-18-3 -> 26-9-3 (3-9-1 -> 46-18-5)
[41-30-11]
SF: 50.8% -> 54.1% (56.1% -> 55.4%)
[50.9%]
HDSF: 49.8% -> 52.4% (56.4% -> 55.1%)
[52.1%]
SH%: 8.2% -> 9.6% (5.9% -> 10.4%)
[8.4%]
SV%: 0.904 -> 0.915 (0.868 -> 0.902)
[0.900]
PDO: 98.6 -> 101.1 (92.7 -> 100.6)
[98.4]
EVGF/60: 2.51 -> 3.42 (1.91 -> 3.31)
[2.56]
EVGA/60 2.76 -> 2.57 (3.52 -> 2.44)
[2.78]
PK: 76.9% -> 81.3% ( 70% -> 81.6%)
[77.8%]
PKGA/60: 8.42 -> 6.91 (10.15 -> 6.75)
[7.91]
PPGF/60: 11.14 -> 9.85 (8.84 -> 10.22)
[11.28]
Tippet to woodcroft
Went from a poweplay reliant team that was losing even strength to top 5 even strength team.
Woodcroft to knoblauch…bad stretch of insanely unsustainable bad luck appearing results. Results not super indicitive coaching improved direct result.
Now not saying coach change didn’t work per say for immediate team maybe gives a bit more shit to defense commitments from woody to knoblauch but i’d be suprised if really any difference in actual results by season end.
Tippet lost to CHI in qualifier and jets in 1st round and the team looked stagnant.
Woody lost to colorado 3rd rnd (with mcdavid clearly broken in end of flames series) then lost to vegas 2nd round (bottom 6 exposed also weakness on RHD targetted.
Both fired following seasons with playoff dissapointments.
While i do hope the strongly consider coaching change this offseason….
I hope they do it for right reasons.
They do it tor the evidence of clearly being outcoached in regular season and none of the reasons this was a problem were significantly adjusted in senaible ways. Not just kneejerking based on playoffs.
The kneejerking after small sample size tournaments is what is killing this team.
Woodcroft deserved more time to right the ship that season.
Knoblauch deserved to be fired this season IMO. Not because of playoffs. Because of systems seeming completely exposed. His team this year was near mirror image of tippet. PP reliant getting heads kicked in even strength.
hearing rumors that elite dman brogan rafferty could possibly sign in the swehl despite being far better than bouchard. ODD.
He played in the SHL last season scoring 12 goals and 36 points in 48 games played.
Team mate Keegan Lowe was held to 2 goals and 12 points.
Former Oiler and Condor Joel Persson also on the team.
Not bad – for an undrafted player.
But a sane, humble individual would take their lumps and recognize that this fate was not all congruent with what their reported expectations were for said player.
It’s actually funny, kingers post and the subsequent discussion has me thinking that keeping Knobber might be the best option.
Many good coaches were given time to develop with their team, i.e, Cooper.
I can’t imagine the constant churn with coaches and management is good for accountability.
Look at Cooper’s track record.
They’re not comparable.
Cooper – Lost in round 1, Lost in Finals, Lost in Round 3, Out of Playoffs
Knoblauch – Lost in Finals, Lost in Finals, Lost in Round 1, ?
They both won Championships outside the NHL before becoming an NHL coach.
I’m not saying Knoblauch is or isn’t the answer but how are they not comparable?
You forgot two Cups in a row and a finals
Cooper did not win those in his first four years. He won a cup in years 8 & 9 and has lost in the first round 4 years in a row.
No he didn’t. I’ve looked at the records of Cup coaches and most take years to get there. Which is the problem, we don’t have years for KK to figure things out, if he ever does. I agree with LMHF that KK may not be a NHL coach, even if he’s great at the AHL level
His style to me seems more like it’s geared to amateur or semi pro players and helping them, not for very tightly strung world’s best player who needs to grow his game, his words, and hasn’t
Um…”no he didn’t” what? I’m right. Cooper took a long time to achieve success. KK was a few lucky bounces/good goaltending from a cup. That’s factual. If you’re going to say “no he didn’t” maybe follow that up with the “what” part of “didn’t”?
Is KK the right coach? Maybe, maybe not. Is there a clear upgrade? Maybe, maybe not. Will it matter if their goaltending sucks? Probably not.
He won 4 of them. And his winning percentage is absurd over time.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=120858
Did you happen to look at the TBay roster for the years you’re referencing?
Not exactly Connor and Leon on the squad…
The track record suggests that Knoblauch should coach major junior. He looks to be very good at it. There are all kinds of very good coaches who should be coaching there and not in the NHL. Dale Hunter being probably the most prominent example.
Save percentages of Jon Cooper’s Starters: 2014 – .924, 2015 – .926, 2016 – .926, 2017 – .917, 2018 – .920, 2019 – .925, 2020 – .917, 2021 – .925, 2022 – .916, 2023 – .915, 2024 – .900, 2025 – .921, 2026 – .912
Save percentages of Kris Knoblauch’s Starters: 2024 – .905, 2025 – .896, 2026 – .899
A starter who is saving an extra 30-60 goals per year would make Knoblauch look like a pretty good coach and given the Oilers 2 cups. Pretty good for a guy that is only good enough for Major Junior.
When looking at coaches, always look at the goalie. Bruce Cassidy won a cup in front of Adin Hill’s .932 playoff save percentage.
Begs the chicken & egg question of which came first, the starter’s sv% or the coach’s defensive system?
Ben Bishop was his OG starter. Had a .909 (10 Games) then .922 (13 games) before and a .900 (in 7 games), .916, .934 and .920 after TB. I’d say he was pretty good. His backup Anders Lindback had a .915 and .912 in Nashville before a .902 and .891 in TB under Guy Boucher and then Cooper. Vasilevskiy had a .912 this year. His backup had an .884.
It’s the goalie.
I won’t exchange stats back and forth, because eventually you’re going to run out of goalies in the quest for a Cup if that’s all you’re relying on. Then it’s going to come back to the team as a whole supporting each other and every aspect of the game and coming together at the right time.
At 30 shots against per game, a .920 goalie saves an average of 0.9 more goals per game than an .890 goalie. That’s the equivalent of 74 goals per season.
Wanna win a cup? Get a goalie. It’s not everything but it’s pretty hard to win without one. Not a lot of teams have a cup without their goalie having a .910 or better in the finals. It can be done but it’s a big, big hill to climb. Lots of teams support each other and every aspect of the game. They don’t all win.
We could go back and forth trading stats on this given there are lots of examples going both ways. The NHL consistent with timely saves .920 goalie is becoming rare. If you can find him, and afford him, along with a decent backup to keep him from getting burnt out before the playoffs, then you are still rolling the dice on whether he can stay healthy for when it matters. This becomes trickier when you have yahoos running the net like we saw last night and when GI rules are decided by playing spin the bottle. So, with all these factors in play and many I am not mentioning, why not invest in better comprehensive team support in case your .920 goalie is not available? It can also be done, because this team has done it from time to time.
There a lots of examples of teams winning a cup with sub .910 goaltending? No, there is not. I don’t think an elite goalie is necessarily available but I am saying that Cooper vs. Knoblauch is a lot closer than you think based on Vasilevskiy being a .920 plus goalie. The trick to being a good coach is good goaltending. The trick to winning a cup is a great team with good goaltending. Sub .900 isn’t gonna cut it.
Sure but is there any goalie in the world that would have come close to a .920 on the Oilers starting 50 games last season?
I mean, Wedgewood led the league with a .921 and Wallstedt was second with a .916.
I would suggest both those goalies would be closer to .900 behind what the Oilers deployed last season….
Save percentages of starters that made the second round Andersen – .950, Lyon – .934, Blackwood – .923, Vladar – .922, Dobes – .917, Hart – .915, Wallstedt – .913, Wedgewood – .911, Husso – .900.
Notice a pattern? Which one beat the Oilers and Ingram’s .876? We lost to Anaheim because we don’t have a good goalie.
You posted regular season hypotheticals and now jumped to the short sample size of playoff games….. that’s not really discussing honestly is it?
I would suggest all those goalies would have a worse save percentage if they were in the net for the Oilers in round 1.
I would also note the goalie that Oilers played against in round 1 currently has a .874 in 10 games.
This. Almost every goalie with a high SV% has a very good environment per Kevin Woodley. Hellebuyck’s playoff flame outs happened because the Jets didn’t give him the same thing as reg season
— If we had elite hockey lieutenants one of two things would happen after an extensive evaluation of the team with best in class process and tools:
1) they do an extensive revamp with KK and get deadly coaching staff
2) they determine they need a new coach and go through a thoughtful process and that coach with management subsequently gets a deadly coaching staff. (Not the backwards keep the existing staff mostly yet bring in new coach but not enable him that this team always favours)
— Surrounding KK with an awesome team and him adapting and working with the stars and management in off season to come up with a better iteration and roster construction is ideal.
— If he does stay however it’s not by some great design and depth awareness and adaptability by management though IMO
— I just don’t think the Oilers have the personnel in place to conduct a serious full-some evaluation
— Just as Pelley seemingly without other advisors conducted “due diligence” that arrived at hiring a GM out of hockey 4 years and 2nd in command with no experience out of continent 2 decades.
— Regrettably my guess is he stays with minimal changes and like previous Oil coaches he loses the locker room early and they hire another coach early season to be the next saviour.
100%.
One guarantee is that there will be no meaningful assessment of the team or due diligence to find replacements.
The Stan Bowman hiring process was the most recent example.
Honest question, how do you know what process they went through in 2024 prior to hiring Stan Bowman?
Honest question – do you recall anyone else getting interviewed (even rumoured to have been on a shortlist) for the job?
We’ve seen from Toronto and Vancouver’s GM search that the Canadian MSM is all over these GM searches, with tons of names being bandied about.
I do not recall anyone else getting a serious look before they hired Bowman.
The same could be said about KK.
I don’t recall verification of anyone getting interviewed, including Stan Bowman.
I recall a multitude of potential hires being out there in the month before, including Bowman.
How do we know what process they went through with any of them?
For all we know, there was a fulsome process
Who were these multitudes and where is your proof?
It’s Edmonton … everything management does is telegraphed through Bob Stauffer. The only other candidates ever mentioned by Stauffer were Brad Holland and Keith Gretzky, and from outside the organization, Mark Hunter. Go back and look at the click bait sites, and these are the names that come up over and over again.
From about February to July 2024, Hunter was the leading candidate. Jason Botterill and Mathieu Darche’s names came up, but not out of Stauffer’s lips.
I’ve always suspected that Hunter turned Jackson down to stay with the London Knights, and then Jackson pivoted to Stan Bowman, whose name started being whispered after he was reinstated July 1, 2024.
Bowman’s body of work as Oilers GM has sucked pretty hard. He’s going to survive because a GM gets his one coaching hire. That said, if we go into next season with KK as coach, and the Oilers have another slow start, the fans are going to chanting “Fire Bowman” at every home game.
I get the concept of a “thorough search” for a coach, but how do you actually do that given the time constraints of the upcoming draft, free agency, and start of season? Is there enough time to do this? Are there examples of any other teams doing this and how successful were they?
I suspect most hockey people are already a known quantity. There are the guys like Cassidy and Laviolette floating around and there are possibilities in the AHL. Also the various NHL assistants. The available ones are pretty much already known. Their coaching philosophy is probably already known.
in other words, I’m not sure if there is sufficient time to do this “deep dive” or that it is absolutely necessary
— which is probably another reason why he stays…
— we will know his status when it starts getting leaked out and they send trial balloons
— an elite management team would have measures in processes in place and would already have a good measure of whether KK is the guy or not moving forward. It wouldn’t be a “holy cow we lost in the first round badly and a bunch of guys were injured so let’s bring it all back” (which is probably what the Oil will conclude as they haven’t shown the acumen to make and stick to and refine forward decisions)
— or a few weeks to figure it out and a few weeks a month to get the right guy and have that guy get a coaching staff IMO.
I would tend to agree, just that the GM and coach need to be on the same page and they most certainly are not. However I would fire the GM first, as well as the guy who hired him with no due process.
100%. Getting a new coach only solves part of the problem. Do we really want Stanley making the decisions?
Agreed. Complete gut, I don’t want this management team ordering what kind of toilet paper they use is the locker room much less reworking the team but alas, time is to ticking so it seems the owner is going to keep on keeping on
This team needs a new coach who is a motivational leader who understands how to get the most out of generational stars, fringe talent, and everything in between. There are different versions of this, but all have a presence that would be respected.
They can have a numbers-obsessed associate coach.
They’ve never done a thorough search, nor added the right personality to the mix in the current era.
A team is a living entity…I haven’t heard one of these guys speak about their room and their squad the way other successful teams do. That happens before the championships, not after.
— yeah good summary of what I said just above!
How confident are you the owner, after a thorough search, would pick the best candidate?
The “through search” you refer to, leads to Paul replacing Jeff. And all hell breaking lose after that.
I don’t know him of course, so I can’t logic it out from direct personal experience which would really help. Based on track record, I’m inclined to say no, but would also never put it past someone who’s done what he’s done in business to learn, adapt, and take a different path.
Now if he hauled in Coffey, Messier, Gretzky and a couple guys not named MacTavish or Lowe (maybe someone from a successful MLB franchise and a hardcore business management type) and reviewed, vetted and analyzed the candidates together – I believe he would.
I’m hoping for the sake of the franchise and city that one or both of the kids are super into this stuff…but again, I don’t know them.
I agree a team is a living entity, and I feel they used to speak about the connection they had in the room. However, the guys that talked about it the most have either moved on or been moved from, and that is difficult to replace, especially when new guys are brought in for a year of one and done.
You hear about things like brotherhood and frankly, love, from the teams that ascend to the heights.
We occasionally hear about the room being good. I haven’t heard the level of commitment to each other that I’m talking about. Understanding that if you achieve something truly special…it’s not just the franchise or you…its that the group becomes bonded for life. And that doesn’t mean everyone stays the same…the 80s Oilers and the modern Patriots and the 90s Yankees didn’t either…but you’d better believe they’re something special for the rest of their lives.
We occasionally hear about the room being good. I haven’t heard the level of commitment to each other that I’m talking about.
The oilers certainly spoke this way during the 2023/24 season.
This is part of the issue. The core are like that with each other, but it doesn’t go through the team. The 80’s team had Messier, picking guys up at the airport, stay with me etc, no matter who. They also had Lowe
Maybe Connor and Leon aren’t going to do that. Lemieux wasn’t like that, but someone needs to be the team builder, and in the Oilers’ case I have argued the coach needs to be a key part of it
Todd Nelson, c’mon down.
Distinctly possible.
I think you need a hardcore interview to see whether he’s an HC or a wonderful AC, but he’d be on the list. I liked the way he coached when he got his shot.
We already know that Todd Nelson does not give a good interview. Dallas Eakins always gives great interviews.
“Maybe this team needs a coach who is obsessed with numbers and strategy, gaining an edge in any way possible.”
That’d be great, sure, but who might that be? Hard to think of many who fit that profile who are sitting out there on trees waiting to be plucked. Also seems like when we grow ’em ourselves (Nelson? Woodcroft?), the ax comes out before long.
I wonder if the Oilers would re-hire Woodcroft?
Ugh. I love Woodcroft. My favourite coach of the McD era. That Calgary series was an all-time great.
Woody is too eccentric for me. He also showed he couldn’t handle the mental side of things for the team which is why he lost his job. He also had the D going glass and out as a breakout strategy as Desharnais told us. KK now in the same boat
For the Condors?
Chaulk is doing a fantastic job with the Condors.
Wouldn’t that be something, fresh off his PP frogmarching the Oilers to the golf course.
I will say that much as I was generally impressed with the results he got until that one devastating early season run, I don’t miss his interviews—I always felt like he was auditioning to give a TED Talk.
Don’t see how hiring Woodcroft will lead to player buy-in.
Been there, tried that.
The Oilers have had McLellan, Hitchcock and Tippet (plus Woody and Knob) – if that list of veteran coaches with histories of “teaching defence” can’t get them to commit, will Cassidy (or another)?
On that other hand, maybe I’m just fooling myself, but I do think that Connor and Leon have finally fully realized what is necessary – they need to commit fully early in the regular season as not doing so and getting off to terrible starts and chasing seasons from the get go is hurting them late.
Maybe it happens with one last new voice?
Better chance of it happening with a new voice like Cassidy than trying again with Woody.
McD and Drai, internal competition for “first to win Selke,” is all this club needs to win Stanley.
He got an extremely short leash compared to KK.
I wonder if they would rehire Drew Remenda.
I commented this above too but I think this is where fans are the most in the dark because we can only really assess coaches and GM wth long or multiple tenures. Otherwise, I think coaches and GM candidates can be best summed up by “we don’t know what we don’t know”.
Unlike players, it’s hard to know what exactly coaches and GMs are responsible for i.e. a GM may be amazing b/c there is a great existing analytics department or innovative AGM they lean on or a coaches success is driven by the assistant getting the most emotionally out of a team. Vice versa being derailed by a bad support group. It gets even murkier for us to know about assistant coaches or GMs or coaches in other leagues.