You kids out there, planning to become NHL general managers someday. I have one piece of advice: pursue skill every time. Why? You can grab a good checker or third pairing blue at a much lower cost than a player who can score goals or contribute directly to scoring goals. Please read this.
The Oilers used to draft shy offensvie talent early but the club did an impressive job of turning that around, or at least mostly turning it around. Between the Mitchell Moroz pick in 2012 and the Kailer Yamamoto selection in 2017, the organization reached the conclusion that skill had to be the first box checked on the prospect list. Now, you need speed and size is important, but you must start with a skill base.
I use this graph often (it’s from my book) to show how it’s done. Look at the points-game in various CHL leagues for these young men at age 17. Music! Now, when you are drafting outside the first round, offensive output is going to look at a little different. Still, the rule applies. Begin with skill, and then look for speed, size, rugged edge, etc. Here are some recent draft picks and their points-game in CHL in draft years:
- Reid Schaefer (WHL) .88 pts-game
- Sam O’Rielly (OHL) .82 pts-game
- Tommy Lafreniere (WHL) .82 pts-game
- David Lewandowski (WHL) .75 pts-game
- Connor Clattenburg (OHL) .48 pts-game
- William Nicholl (OHL) .31 pts-game
The top two names are first-round selections, and are likely to enjoy NHL careers of 100+ games or more. The two names that follow were drafted last summer and I think the Oilers did well. Both men played in the AHL after the junior season ended, and both did some good things.
This differs wildly from the days of Troy Hesketh, who was a tall tree from Minnetonka, Minnesota chosen in the third round of the 2009 draft. Probably because one of the area scouts had a “great passion” for his ability and the organization had never drafted from his area. Anyway, the Oilers could have drafted an actual tall tree from Minnetonka and had the same level of success.
Over the next few weeks, I’m going to spend some time looking at the 2026 entry draft. I’ll probably pull together a list of players I think the Oilers should consider based on mathy things. The process never stops, and those scouts deserve more, not less, credit for uncovering players like Connor Clattenburg and William Nicholl. I don’t know if they’ll land NHL careers but they did develop after draft day and they do have skill. I call them ‘draft and follow’ prospects. When you land a good one, it makes up for the ones that missed.
One of the truly impressive thngs about this organizaiton’s amateur scouts is what they saw in Clattenburg and Nicholl. Math was no help. The first post will be math outliers no one is talking about, but should be discussing.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Kevin McCurdy to talk about Oilers coaching candidates and the possible impact of replacing the coach so often. NHL and NBA playoffs, Jays and more, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440.
Why Oilers forward Ike Howard is well positioned for feature role in Edmonton
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7291553/2026/05/20/edmonton-oilers-ike-howard-stats/
And he just scored (sniped) the 1st goal for team USA.
As you say, however, his positioning with this club is very likely coach-dependent.
We need a Coach that isn’t afraid of his own shadow. We all know with a veteran team it basically runs on its own. Just like Vegas Tort’s is letting the team go on it’s own the difference being Torts is a master of deception. Tort’s will work the Refs over if they don’t allow Vegas type hockey.
I watched him work his ass off and work on the things the org needed him to (coachable) – I watched him become one of the better 2-way players on the team, committed to back-track and board battle (no, he’s not great on the boards but he’s engaged). I watched his mature vis-a-vs the risk in his game (i.e the right play at the lines, etc.). I watched him produce at high end levels in the AHL (higher production than Savoie when he was in the AHL at the same age).
I believe Howard is a legit top 6 skilled forward – a complementary scorer that can excel with elite line mates.
No room for 2 smurfs in the top 6 and Howard doesn’t penalty kill. We all know the first 1.45 PP time is written in stone. Howard still has value as he’s showcasing is scoring ability on the bigger ice service at the World Championships. The thing is we would probably trade Howard for O’Reilly in an alternate universe as O’Reilly is exactly what we need. I see Howard getting traded as half the league could use him on at least 45 seconds of PP2 time or in some cases PP1. The refusal by K.K to put Howard in a scoring position probably was in the top 3 reasons he’s kicking stones today.
You could be right on kk refusal to put Howard in a scoring position. We can’t know for sure how that would have went. However when he went down he didn’t look like a nhl ready player.
When he came back up he was nhl ready. He was hunting pucks and seemingly involved in every play on both ends of the ice. Rather than hoping for leftovers.
In my opinion that was the right development path. I don’t think Savoies extra ahl time hurt him at all.
You can say that about any skilled rookie watch McDavid in his first ten games. Howard should have been on the PP when Hyman was injured (Tomasek) and should have definitely been on it when Leon was out (Walman) Howard is 22 he’s not a kid you do not put skilled scoring wingers in the minors at that age he’s in his prime right now. If Howard was a power forward like a Tage Thompson (Samanski-Dach) then by all means let him grow into his body. Howard is what you see is what you get instead of pounding the minutes on Leon -Connor-Nuge during the regular season Howard should have been used. I have eyeballs I know where the bear shits in the forest. This is all my take I’ve been watching skilled rookies come in and find instant success at a younger age. Kurri-Anderson-Arnott etc. If I’m the owner I do exactly what our current owner did which is calling Bowman on the bat phone and telling him to can the coach after the listless playoff we had losing to a team-goalie we should of hammered on.
I think two smurfs can be in the top 6 as long as they compete in the tough areas. And as long as the other 4 have more size. And the bottom 6 have good size to balance.
However I don’t believe Howard, Savoie, Nuge , Roslavic (or similar) can be on the same roster.
McDavid and Leon can’t continue to get hammered on every game. Look at the heavyset team Bowman is putting together he knows that Connor-Leon need help. Why do you think Clattenburg was called up. Dach might be the key to that deal anyhow Howard is a waste trying to turn him into a 4th line Guy Carbonneau. Trade him at the draft and let the Iceman find success on a team that puts him in a position to succeed.
I do not ever want a skilled player like Howard to be forced to play like a fourth liner. Those mistakes have certainly been made in the past with many players. I’d rather have dach/ jones type for those minutes.
All I’m saying is he looks like an nhl ready player now and I don’t think his ahl time hurt him( probably helped) and he should be with drai or mcd next year. I expect him to be a significant offensive player on the oilers with Savoie in the top 6.
I don’t believe him sitting around playing responsible defensive fourth line minutes in the nhl under kk would be better than the ahl. That was the option this year.
Why trade for Howard if you’re trying to turn him into the player you traded him for. Obviously the G.M and Coach were not on the same page. Maybe a veteran coach will have the balls to shake up the PP when it’s stale. If you can’t find PP time for Howard trade him while he still has confidence and value.
His most common line mates were Matt Savoie and Jack Roslovic who, for most of the season, you thought was making a case for the US Olympic team. Howard played middle six/third line as a raw rookie pro and then was afforded the privelege of developing in the proper league, making him a better player and giving him he best opportunity to reach his ceiling.
You continuing to post about the org trying to make him in to a grinder does not make it true.
The PP was 33% for the first 70 games of the year and finished 1st in the league by two percent with the fifth best all time percentage – there was no case for more PP minutes.
When has there ever been one iota of evidence that it seems the Oilers are looking to turn Howard in to a 4th line Guy Carbonneau?
You realize Howard’s most common line mates were Matt Savoie and Jack Roslovic (who you professed was playing his way on the US Olympic team)?
You also posted a fake fact about Howard being 22 and not needing kid gloves. He just turned 22 and was 21 for the season.
The dude got 3rd line minutes with some 2nd line time and then re-assigned to develop in the proper lease and is going in to his second season as a pro as a much better player.
A 4 year-old knows you need at least one player on a 3rd-4th line that is physical presence. K.K playing Howard with Roslovic and Savoie is the exact reason he was fired. It’s going to come out of the wash that the handling of Howard was a big reason he was fired. It wouldn’t surprise me if Howard agent asked quietly for a move. K.K coddling of Veterans cost us a playoff run. You ice the best team possible the benching of Frederic when he was finally being effective and the handling of Howard-Jarry will be the 3 reasons he’s was fired.
That line played 70 minutes, was 3-3 goals and 50% expected goals. A non McDavid-Drai line sawing off is cup stuff for this team so your premise is incorrect.
The GM had Howard in the American League for 2/3 of the season, and rightly so – I’m highly confident Knob’s handling of Howard had all but nothing to do with his firing.
Good Grief.
You don’t know who the coach is so how do you know that:
1) Howard and Savoie both can’t be in the top 6; or
2) That there won’t be a larger chunk for PP2?
I suspect Howard’s potential value in the Oilers lineup, on his ELC for two more years, vastly outweighs his trade value and I also suspect Bowman feels the same.
Sam O’Reily has never played a pro hockey game and its highly unlikely the Oilers need what he could bring this coming season.
I don’t agree with Knob’s deployment of Howard either but, at the same time, I do believe half 2/3 of a season in the AHL was the right spot from him and I watched in real time him grow as a pro hockey player and the benefits will be reaped by the Oilers this coming season.
You’re going to eat a pastrami sandwich when it comes to O’Reilly. At worst he’s going to be a Rem Murray or Jarret Stoll. O’Reilly has Captain-Assistant written all over him. As for Howard a G.M out East is going to really fancy him. It’ll surprise me if he breaks training camp as a Oiler.
I think O’Reily will be a very good NHL player in due course.
Of course, Howard is likely to be as well, and likely sooner.
It’s wild how we can’t have “2 smurfs” in the top-six but Chicago won three cups with 2+ smurfs in the top-six
Howard is going to play in the NHL, no doubt. Will it be in Edmonton? The new coach will have a say.
Sure but the first say is likely Bowman who will provide this potential impact player on an ELC to the coach.
Coach will play him. How? We don’t know but I presume the new coach may play him up the lineup before he has made 12 hard plays and 14 dumps at the blue and 9 board battles won first.
I suspect the new coach will play Howard whether he wants to or not. It’s highly unlikely that we end up with 14 forwards any coach thinks of as “better” than Howard.
Its hard to imagine the new coach not wanting to play unless his work ethic and coach ability regress next season – his talent will not have gone anywhere and the kid is someone coaches will like, I’m pretty sure.
He scores and teams need that. He was the top scorer on the 2021-22 USNTDP U-18. 7 players from that team scored 60+ points with the others being Logan Cooley, Frank Nazar (also 5’10”), Rutger McGroarty, Cutter Gauthier, Jimmy Snuggerud and Lane Hutson. Howard can skate, pass and shoot. He’ll have a career for sure and no coach is going to want to be the guy that “passed” on him.
Just like that the mighty Av’s lose home ice. Torts will have the Refs eating out of his hand by the series end. The Av’s aren’t so dangerous when the Refs aren’t calling 3-4 tricky tacky penalties.
The Avs were the best team in the NHL with the 6th worst PP in the league (17%) and, while its been better in the playoffs (25%), getting PPs has NOT been a reason for their success this season….
Mostly goaltending
Carter Hart on a real heater.
I really didn’t think he would be able to return to his earlier form. Boy was I wrong.
Torts coached Hart in Philly he looks pretty focused in. He didn’t take Vegas management a buyout of Hill all it took was a little ingenuity.
Well after watching the Colby Armstrong segment with Brett Kulak (just shown on Sportsnet), let’s go Avs. Get rid of those Knights.
MTL and CAR have best GM / MGT teams in NHL in my opinion. Tampa / Dallas and others are good. Good to see smart MGT get rewarded. Keep their teams young. Don’t over pay ANYONE. Give coaches rope to improve. repeatable, dependable, respectable.
1 of those 2 is going to a CUP FINAL. MTL is the youngest team in the league.
I don’t get why Caroline doesn’t get a Olivier type. You need to beat 4 teams to win a Cup Caroline rolls over everyone until they face a bully team in Panthers-Knights.
Ekholm with 1 goal (another!) and an assist today.
Ike with 1 goal (another!) and an assist today, and one of the most dangerous players on the ice all game, including some terrific hustle and passing. 3rd shooter in the SO too and stopped on a backhand deke.
Samanski looked to log a ton of mins, including 3 extended OT shifts 3 on 3 and looked very strong defensively, while also securing an apple and some soup, sort of, scoring Germany’s only SO goal as the first shooter.
Howard looked excellent today lots of go. All over the ice. Hard to the net. Hard in battles. Completely different player than early in the regular season.
He’s an ideal top 6 addition to the oil next year.
Agreed, he has 2 goals this tourney with his forecheck helping create a turnover, and multiple times today he was responsible clearing his net front and transitioning the puck north.
Even if he doesn’t come by it naturally, the concerted effort off the puck is really there. I’m excited to see him next season, ideally 2RW beside Podz and Leon, but a 3rd line with Nuge and Kap vs the soft parade could be fun too.
Howard will a goal and assist today (but miss in the shootout).
Samanski with an assist and a SO goal (first shooter for Germany).
Seravelli continuing to report that the Wings are going to move Cossa.
I still am not sure why there is a rush there. Both Postava and Augustine are waivers exempt giving the Wings the ability to tandem Cossa with Gibson.
Frank says the asking price is a 2nd round pick and “a roster player”. Of course “a roster player” is way too broad – is that Janmark or Savoie or Bouchard?
In any event, I would indeed feel comfortable with Cossa in a tandem here. Sure, maybe he is not NHL ready and it blows up but I doubt that and there is legit starter upside and potential cup upside.
I think Jarry has more upside than Ingram but we’ve also seen a lower floor with Jarry and I’d prefer the stability of a Ingram as a partner given the somewhat unknown nature of Cossa.
With that said, I don’t think a Jarry trade out is reasonably likely and, while I’d rather partner Cossa with Ingram, I’d be happy to partner him with Jarry as well.
Show me Cossa!
Im big on Cossa because he’s the one true high-ceiling option that doesn’t cost the moon in terms of salary and could be a long term fit we haven’t had since … Ranford?
But what’s his floor? I’d be apt to spend a 2nd and a player like Emberson or Dach to find out, but probably don’t go as far as trading Howard.
Cossa / Jarry could be entirely satisfactory, and it could also be a disaster. Would be fun to watch!
I think I agree with all of this!
Cossa is waivers exempt for one more year so now is 100% the time to take a chance on him.
That’s a big ask for a guy with 1 NHL game
I am half expecting a Cossa add at this point. It has been hinted at for a so long now.
Goalies are tough to project and their general performance variance year to year, especially lately, make me hesistant to invest too heavily to acquire. But goalies with his pedigree seem a bit safer bets and the potential reward is worth taking some risk here. Unless a ‘goalie expert’ flags some fundamental concerns.
I would also be fine running Cossa as backup/1B this year. The league is littered with examples of unproven goalies emerging. I think Cossa as backup is tolerable risk with benefit of higher potential longterm ceiling. Ideally, I would prefer a more experienced #3 in the AHL than Tompkins if that was the case though.
I think Jarry is 1A next year unless there is a rift with him in the locker room, or he is easily tradable (doubtful). If healthy and given better structure/execution by skaters, that probably has as good of, or better, chance of working out than other realistic options out there. Its not worth losing assets to move him unless there are bigger underlying problems involved.
I believe it is a 2nd rounder or a player and not both
I suspect either Detroit knows that Cossa wants out or they don’t want him as the backup this year. Both Postava (.937) and Gylander (.942) (in less games) put up better save percentages than Cossa (.915). Talbot had an .883 behind Gibson’s .901 and they never gave a game to another G. I suspect Detroit is looking for a “proven” backup to Gibson and that means Cossa may be expendable or they’re trying to get something for him because he has the most value of their 4 prospects and they don’t see a huge difference between them all.
Cossa for a 2nd would be a solid pickup. That said the year he was drafted the Oilers Kenny Holland was hoping he slipped to them. So I can definitely see Holland in him as well
Mark Lazerus tweeted that he asked Torts about his feelings in what the Knights are doing with Cassidy and Torts said he had no comment on it. I think it’s safe to say Torts likely does not approve.
I think when Vegas hired him he was still under contract with Philly?????
The Knights had to get Boston’s permission to hire Cassidy and had to get Philly’s permission to hire Torts.
@LonnbergMari
Darnell Nurse with a big smile on Jesse Puljujarvi
”…He always had a smile on his face. One of the hardest working players I’ve ever played with. He was always on the bike and in the gym. Great teammate. He was fun to play with…
We could use size & speed at RW in the middle six. A third line RW with Nuge and Howard?
Pizza Man put up 1 ppg in the Swiss league and played all of his team’s games. JP appears to be over his injuries.
Who says no to Puljujarvi’s third spin as an Oiler?
Honestly Jesse might say no. He must be happy doing so well over there and he may have no desire to come back to the NHL. I would love to have him back though!
I wish him all the best, but the guy slightly ahead of him in points on his team was former Oiler great Markus Granlund. The guy who put up 3-1-4 in 34 games in the ’19-’20 season.
If we’re bringing back Oilers from the 25-26 Geneve Servette for sentimental reasons I think we gotta start with MAP. 😀
I forgot Granlund had played for us. He’s in a rare group having played 335 games but only for Van/Cgy/Edm
Third?
There is a lot of Oiler media thinking the coach didn’t need to go, the teams going deep have tenured coaches. MacT said he doesn’t think the coach has as much impact as some. And that it’s hard to say why coaches get fired and we aren’t in the room
But then he went on to say that if Connor and Leon thought the tactics weren’t right or not enough adjustments they should share that with the coach, but maybe Knoblauch hadn’t fostered that relationship
The coaches don’t play the games for sure. But they have a large impact I think, and it can wear off over time. I don’t think KK’s situation is similar to Cooper Rod and Bednar. There were mitigating factors for them that weren’t coaching related when they couldn’t get to the Cup or got bounced early. The teams were still well run and the stats didn’t go in the toilet
KK saw some roster changes, but still had 3 elite players and the numbers each season were trending down. The team wasn’t well run this season. There is no time to wait figuring things out. He’ll get another chance at some point. And if another coach can’t sort it out, everyone will know where things are at point
I hope we see some new ideas. LT was mentioning today what I have also commented on before. Which was having someone else take the C duties in the D zone and let Connor menace higher up in the zone. It’s a fit for what he wants to do which is get the puck and rush. And give more hard minutes to Leon’s line
Sather didn’t try to get Gretzky to be a formidable two way C. He was so unique he chose to use him in a different way that played to his instincts and cause clenched sphincters on the other side. Line match more, or in KK’s case at all. I think it would work well, as long as Connor isn’t blocking point shots much. He should be able to disrupt them preemptively
Bowman would need to get the right players to support that if they aren’t there now. Another thing that might mitigate Connor not having the most TOI against top comp is if they can resign Dickenson. If he’s given the right wingers he can hard match, he was 2nd in TOI against elites, in the league
Periodic reminder that Wayne Gretzky is the all-time leader in Short-Handed goals with 73 and points with 149. Alex Ovechkin passed his goals record with just 5 SHG.
I think Boone Jenner would be a good add for this team
32 and always injured definitely fits the Oilers template.
Fits the Bowman profile of acquiring always injured and unavailable players that he rewards with expensive long term contracts.
A Boone Jenner type player would be a good add. Preferably a 25 year old Jenner type.
Noah Laba, NYR
Yes. This is exactly the aisle to shop in!!
let’s go 7 years …..
IIRC Troy Hesketh was drafted on the premise that NJ was going to take him and had invited him to a prospect camp previously. I think the Oilers spent years trying to beat NJ due to losing the Parise/Pouliot draft trade.
That is also my recall.
Basically it’s foolish to trade a 1st round pick unless you’re receiving a core player in return who can make major contributions over a championship window.
Example: trading Schaefer and a 1st (two firsts) for Ekholm was good. Trading a first to Anaheim for Henrique or a first to Chicago for Dickinson was bad. It’s not to say the Oilers shouldn’t have been open to trading those picks, but I argue that they got short-term value instead of sustained value.
Any single year can be a bust, especially near the end of the 1st round, but over a 5-year span you should hit on an NHL player 3 times drafting 20-32. Trade away or blow your 1st round picks in frequent succession and you’re destined for a massive hangover or for your competitive window to shorten.
We are here. Having a bit of cap space and a first round pick this summer would allow you some trade flexibility to address a need. Maybe Dickinson signs and plays well in the 3C spot, but he can be had this offseason by any team without surrendering any assets, let alone a team’s best draft capital.
I remember when Holland didn’t re-sign Andreas Athanasiou despite trading two 2nd round picks for him and thinking he understood sunk cost. AA didn’t work out and in the Covid Cap-Crunch wasn’t worth $3M. The Oilers overall don’t seem to have learned that lesson. We give up a 2nd and a 4th for Frederic who should have been but was not the power forward we needed. Better sign him for 8 years to save face. A first for Henrique who was a 40 point per 60 game centre (55 point pace) made sense if he kept scoring at that rate. Him scoring at a 30 point pace on the Oilers? Better sign him for two more and trade Ryan McLeod before he wants to get paid. If the Oilers don’t sign Murphy and Dickinson to deals and at a minimum of 4Mx4Year each, I will be very, very surprised. That’s also why they’ll hold onto Tristan Jarry unless they can get something big in return.
Sunk cost is an easy concept to understand but hard to follow.
Spot-on.
Non-core players are fungible. Keep them if they fit and their salaries are manageable.
It’s not a crime to trade assets for a player, but it is a disaster if you commit money and term to guys who prove to be a poor fit.
At least Bowman has a farm system and if you play well you’ll get called up. I like what Bowman did by getting big skilled wingers in Dach and Poulin as add-ons these 2 could play meaningful games this year at food stamp prices.
I always like to look at the fans of the other team in a trade to assess if it is fair/even. The number of Chicago fans angry that Dach was included tells me they actually got something there (and he seems to be the exact player they need). Poulin is a Group VI UFA so he might not stick around but even getting a chance to audition another young player does have value if he can show something.
Most GMs have things they do well and things they don’t. I think Bowman did a really good job of adding young guys that have are able to or close to able to play a role. He took over the team at a complicated spot and hasn’t really had a ton of runway so his mistakes in the now are over-analyzed while bets/wins on young players could payoff well over the next 3-5 years.
This and perhaps Frederic doesn’t get it together, but Jarry could still turn out and be better than Stu was. A lot of media are calling that trade a panic trade. I don’t buy that, Bowman seems far from panicky. Could have been the owner as well demanding action
The part about the contract is big. I think Bowman thought if he kept Skinner he would have to pay him more than Jarry is making because Cup runs etc. He also had the risk of going into the summer with no signed NHL goalie – cap consideration and risk mitigation
Going into the summer with no signed goaltender would have shaken free and lowered the acquisition cost of every young 3rd goalie in the NHL. Every GM would no there was someone who was going to take advantage of the waiver wire in late September.
Bowman snookered himself in the goalie market for the upcoming season by trading for Jarry.
The farm system has yet to make an impact. It will not make an impact in McDavid time.
There will be life after McD. Now is the time to prepare for that.
Matt Savoie and Josh Samanski and soon Issac Howard beg to disagree.
Disagree on Samanski. I don’t think he will hold onto a regular spot in the lineup.
I generally agree with this. But the Oilers didn’t just trade a 1st for Dickenson. For me they got value for the 1st (expected to be a late one) and the 2nd, filling two gaping roster holes and getting a good prospect as well, two salary retentions
Teams load up at the deadline. The Avs paid a player a prospect a 1st and a 2nd for a better but 35 YO player with 3 seasons left on his deal
That first round pick, as you allude to, was more than just Dickinson on an expiring contract, it was:
1) Dickinson on an expiring contract (and the inside on a re-sign – which they may or may not vest)
2) 50% retained
3) Colton Dach
4) Removal of Mang’s negative value contract and cap hit for the rest of this past season and all of this coming season
Exactly
i have long argued that the 1st for dickinson AND dach was not an overpay.
dickinson was worth at minimum a 2nd + a 4th when compared to other centers. heck, michael mccarron went for a 2nd and he isnt half the player dicky is.
dach is also worth a 3rd or a 4th. Young, fast, physical players under team control have a lot of value.
the bet was that they could use the later picks to take shots on boom/bust players in the draft.
Is the difference between pick 25ish and pick 50 ish really that different? i would rather have the 2nd and the 2 extra 4th rounders. More kicks at the can.
Bang on about the value of a late first and a second. The guys with more pedigree are long gone. Bowman wanted more bullets
the move was good value in isolation. the part that bugs me is Mangiapane was signed less than a year ago and Thats just bad buying out a recently signed short term deal. And the fact that the retention and dump was necessary in part because we put ourselves in a worse cap situation with the Jarry trade.
How was a gaping hole filled? They have no signed 3rd line centre, and no signed #2RD. They will now have to spend excessively in the UFA market to fill those holes.
The already spent excessively on band aids.
They couldn’t go into playoffs with those holes could they?
Gapping holes were filled for the season they were acquired, the primary purpose of the trades. Without the massive injuries, the Oilers might be getting ready to play Colorado tonight for all we know.
Are you sure about the last sentence? I would post the Oilers are likely to get Murphy signed for less than if they didn’t make the trade.
I’m just here for the Chrissie Hynde references.
Smelly cat, smelly cat!!!!
Congrats to my long-time favorite EPL team, Arsenal, for clinching their first league title in 22 years.
The Athletic had a fascinating article yesterday on their success, most notably on the total overhaul of the organization and formation of a “football intelligence unit”:
Beyond player recruitment, the piece speaks about the pursuit of perfection on areas of the game that have been historically imperfect, such as attacking and defending set pieces.
Hockey is of course a different sport, but hard not to believe there are similar areas of attack for historically under optimized components.
Interestingly, the owners of Arsenal also own the Colorado Avalanche… hard not to imagine them sharing some learnings on this side of the pond as well.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7291434/2026/05/19/inside-arsenal-premier-league-title-win/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.j1A.CkaS.5Es494n9_w3E
The Kroenke empire is fascinating and far reaching.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kroenke_Sports_%26_Entertainment
Interestingly the Kroenkes were hated for many years by Arsenal fans post-purchase for essentially doing nothing as Chelsea, Citeh and Liverpool passed them by – “Silent Sam” was the patriarch’s nickname.
I think his son taking a more active role helped push them to be more engaged.
Another Gunners fan!
I’m with you, having lived in north London for a while, and also having read Nick Hornby’s radicalizing Fever Pitch (there’s one scene when the protagonist is getting the gears from his romantic partner because of his alleged inability to demonstrate commitment, and his response [which I fully understand but would never attempt myself {neither should any of us if we know what’s good for us}] is to exclaim that he has no problem with commitment, having stuck with Arsenal through thick and thin for years. Years!), which made me realize my Oilers pathology, while possibly clinical, was at least somewhat common.
Classic book!
My EPL team has been relegated. I do not know how to feel. 🙁
@lowetide / this is way off topic but I thought you might find this article interesting
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48808407/mlb-2026-miami-marlins-pitch-calling-dugout-bp-pioneers-analytics
Very. Thanks!
Re: tall tree
I’ve always wished there was some qualitative type of “body classification” standard system added to scouting.
Like height and weight just leaves a lot of good info as far as framing the whole picture of a player and truly curious, esoecially in the smaller players how much this might affect differences in overall success rates.
Like yamoto, to me, is one of the most impressice displays of skill and high hoxkey IQ. Like highest order odds defying how he manages to achieve what he has.
5’8″ 160 ish lbs….unbelievable in a way that is obvious by that simple a level of physical traits most could deduce that.
Seens easy to infer the difference between him and
Cole caufield 5’7 175 lbs
Or
Martin st louis 5’8″ 180 lbs
But even there if you look at photos of them -> people likely would sense st louis is much taller because he is built more like me with longer torso shorter legs than caufield seems to have.
St louis would actually have a lower center of mass and that difference i think is a subtle advantage in harder intensity playoff hockey that’s played tighter physically.
Likely he had a slower skating speed but harder to knock off puck than caufield might be.
My point being
Matt Savoie 5’10” 179 lbs
Is a but different body type than caufield in very advantageous ways (both elite skating speed savoie just has more reach naturally) and even more so than st louis. seems to me. He, like caufield, likely gets mistaken for even shorter than they actually are because both frames appear longer legs shorter upper torso.
So while he clearly does not have the same level of deadly shooting ability naturally if i was looking at ways of maybe further unlocking savoie i might pull through caufield footage regarding how he manages to find open soft ice offensively. And also would have savoue focus watching caufield in playoffs trying to identify what does and doesn’t seem to be working as well in playoff style games.
Because while savoie is solid on skates he’s not a ball of antimatter proportionately. He, like caufield, will have another level up in hockey iq/tactical growth to be a real offensive mennace in playoff style hockey. The speed advantage they lean harder on than a lot of bigger guys logically need to does not translate to a much more noticable degree in playoff offensive output.
Digging through the sub 6′ collegiate players like i was i found myself wishing there was more than the nost basic physical stats.
Like leg length (inseam)/ ankle diameter (fragility)/torso length and shoulder width.
If another level of physical traits was systematically collected i’d be willing to bet it would correlate to success in interesting ways. Like 5’10” seems like the cusp just before tipping point and for some reason in my brain actual frame finer details likely more notably impactful differentiator in success rates of guys thst height or lower. Like inherently lighter and “easier to knock off puck” if skating speed is equal i’d bet the forwards with shorter lower bodies more effectively translate regular season offensive output during playoff hockey
All players
5’8″ or lower ~1.5%
5’9″ ~ 3.0%
5’10” ~ 6.5%
5’11” ~11.5%
6’0″ ~ 19.0%
Just forwards
5’8″ ~ 2.5%
5’9″ ~4.5%
5’10” ~ 10%
5’11” ~ 16.5%
6’0″ ~ 23.5%
6’1″ ~ 19.0%
6’2″ ~ 12 0%
6’3″ ~ 7.0%
6’4″ ~ 3.5%
As usual sorry for babbling
I think this is an area where GMs who are more comfortable with statistical analysis have an opportunity to find an edge.
Those who are willing to use AI analysis to find correlations in under-utilized prospect metrics, predictive algorithms even more complex than the ratios you brought forward, may end up producing more players than their peers and quicker.
It would allow for more personalized coaching and development especially if they also equip their AHL teams with the same tools.
There are no salary caps for analytics teams. All you need is an owner who is willing to be patient.
I posted a while back about this and also found under 5’10’and over 6’4 are quite the outliers. It makes sense to avoid those guys in the draft unless there is a compelling reason. The Oilers in the past have wasted a lot of picks in low percentage bets
St.Louis and Fleury had thighs like tree trucks. I seen both in shorts and couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Because of this they were extremely hard players to knock off the puck. Caulfield has that quick release from the soft areas hopefully Savoie finds these little areas where you can put up 30 plus goals like Debrincat who should have been picked the year before the Yamo pick. If Yamo had hands he’s a 30 goal scorer playing with Leon. Hopefully both Savoie and Howard fall somewhere in-between St.Louis and Yamo.
Moddejonge is embarrassing and his articles are an example of why so many people dislike MSM.
agreed. Will not read
He’s a troll looking for hits probably hates the Oilers to begin with.
Are you talking about the McD and Captaincy article? If it is, what do you disagree with? I think it’s spot on.
Yes I am.
It is a smear piece that provides zero factual basis to support his thesis. Instead, Moddejonge offers up his interpretation of largely inconsequential phrases or moments and then passes it off as fact. It’s embarrassing. It is the type of behaviour that led Marner to leave Toronto. McD is not above criticism but any criticism levied should be supported by facts.
Hmmm…
To me the facts are:
-was made a Capt with zero preparation or qualification at 19 years of age
-has had tremendous expectations laid on him, both to excel as a player (which he’s done) and to lead his team to one, but preferably multiple, Cups (which he hasn’t done)
-was never taught how to be the public face and voice of the team, so is a terrible and uninspiring interview
-like his lieutenant Draisaitl, has not learned how to take responsibility publicly, saving blame/criticism for closed door conversations
-coaches on the turnstile while “leadership group” remains.
That Draisaitl is, like McD, thriving as a player but also failing as a leader tells me that the author is probably on to something when he lays responsibility at the door of management and ownership.
I don’t know who “should” have been given the C way back when, but the guy who seems to have what it takes for the job might be Hyman. Let McD play. Stop expecting him to be what he’s not. It’s never too late to do the right thing.
I’ll take Matty and Spec over him every day – in the room and via written word.
That is a real dog’s breakfast of “journalists”, but agreed.
Meh, I don’t mind Spec or Mattheson.
Truth be told, they have more balls in their questions than all the other local media – even if they don’t necessarily present their questions in a proper manner (that’s more Matty)
Makar out tonight.
I disapprove!
Need Manson to cross check Stone’s spine of glass early to even things up.
Stone not expected to play for Vegas.
I actually wondered if that would be a thing the Avs did. See if you can win a game or two while giving him the rest to be ready for the final. I don’t actually see the Avs having a lot of trouble with Vegas.
Yak had good shot and J.P was a power forward if developed differently. Both Yak and J.P were like a couple of 17 year-old Mennonites getting dropped off at the bus station in downtown New York.
As much as I hate Vegas I would rather see them win over the crybaby MacKinnon. Is there a way to find out how many penalties Nathan draws compared to Connor!? I bet it’s a what the hell this not right % difference.
Fu$k Vegas (and I would have expressed the same prior to the Cassidy thing).
— as much as McDrai Nuge Bouch Nurse were hits one looks back and wonders what could have been if Yak Kailer and Pool were top-6 wingers to grow with the team too…
— that’s a dynasty if those picks worked
Dallas Eakins and a linesman cost this team a lot more than most people realize.
Very true. Injuries impacted those fellows for sure, but I think the Oilers were a house divided on the first two picks. Provably with Yakupov, Spec wrote a story about it. I think JP’s availability was too much for Chiarelli to pass up, and you could see what Puljujarvi did well (turned over pucks) but they shouldn’t have brought him to the show as a teenager. Yamamoto had that wonderful run in 2019-20, but the cap issues and injury made him expendable.
None had a very good chance of working out. I was bullish on JP but when we found out about his hips it all made sense, especially the Finn GM passing on him
Throw in RNH too. I love the player but he is a below average 1st overall pick.
RNH is 23rd out of 60 skaters drafted first overall (57 if you include players who played in the NHL.)
He is 1 point behind Rick Nash, and 29 games behind him as well.
He is not at the level of MacKinnon, McDavid or Crosby and Ovechkin, but he is not as low as Yakupov, Erik Johnson, and seems to have carved himself a career similiar to Hall, Owen Nolan, Lecavalier and (debateably) Tavares.
I would say that Nuge is a decidedly average 1st overall pick.
Teams don’t but unless there is a McDavid trading down makes a lot of sense from 1OV. Then you can pick who you want without the pressure to take the consensus guys
Rumor had it, they tried desperately to trade down in 2012 and not make the Yakupov pick. But the rest of the league were not foolish, and also didn’t want to make that pick, so no dice. So they were going to take who they hoped to trade down for anyway (Ryan Murray) instead until Katz jumped in.
The rest of the league were right not to trade up. The top 4 in that draft were less than stellar…the talent was in the later picks of the 1st round, names like: Reilly, Lindholm, Trouba, Forsberg, Wilson, Hertl, Terruvainen, and Vasilevsky (dare to dream!).
23 out of 60 for what?
1st overall picks (according to QuantHockey
23rd highest point total out of 60
I don’t think point total is a very good tool to assess first overall picks. Does not account for positional bias, injuries, and scoring rates of different eras.
Then what do you think would be a good tool to assess first overall picks?
Get an interpreter.
Everybody was amused at Jessie’s big smile and good nature and they seen what they wanted to see.
The Finn GM knowing both language and culture could actually assess what was happening in the brain behind that big smile. Maturity, adaptability, coachability and readiness of the big kid.
— Tkachuk would have been deadly …
— Jarmo passing on Pool was such a tell.
— Nuge is what entering his 16th (or will it be 17?)season? Not many of those on same team ever. He and the other Steve Austin’s just weren’t enough
— obv the bad drafting got them McDrai so there’s that.
— Some stud wingers to grow with McDrai : man what could have been.
Agreed. RNH was never the flashiest, but he was key to a lot of the successes in the past 10 years (PP, PK, etc).
That draft didn’t scream generational players. We did have at one point three of the top five picks. Landeskog, Huberdeau, Zibanejad, Scheifle or Cotourier were the other options.
RNH is #1 in GP for his draft class and #5 in scoring overall (Kucherov, picked at #58, is #1 in scoring). He isn’t a bust compared to his draft class and there just wasn’t a McDavid available in that year. For context, RNH would be #2 in points in the 2010 draft class, #5 in 2009, #3 in 2008 and #1 in 2012. He was a good pick.
2012 was a crap draft a 10(!) teams passed on Filip Forsberg who was traded two years later for a mostly used Martin Erat. Sometimes drafts just don’t have superstars.
No disagreement.
He is just a below average first overall.
By what metric?
P/G, quality of team/linemates, position, and toi.
I say this as a fan of Nuge. He is not a franchise player. Most first overalls since the cap was introduced are franchise players.
Among 1st overall picks, Nuge is 28th in P/g
Quality of team and linemates, I’m not sure exactly what you mean. Is he penalized or praised for being on a poor team early in his career? is he punished or praised for being on a good team later in his career?
As for position, again I’m not sure what you mean.
Nugent-Hopkins averages 19:23 per game across every game of his career, which is 31st amongst all forwards in the league since they began tracking TOI (according to QuantHockey). Now we should take that with a grain of salt, because it does not track players that played prior to a certain point, but includes every 1st overall pick in the cap era and so we can compare to some noteable players:
That still looks like around the average one could expect from a 1st overall pick.
Connor-Leon made up for it. I like Nurse and his skating will keep him in the league another 7-9 years but if he turns into a stud like say a Denis Potvin we are talking 3 Cups with these men at the helm. I go back and watch footage of Nurse in Junior as basically a rover and I don’t get why coaching doesn’t green light him more often. You stick Nurse with a stay home D like Murphy and let Nurse roam free and do what he’s best at. I thought Coffey would have turned him loose but I do think it was K.K system that has hurt Nurse in basically the prime for a big D-man like him.
They also passed on Debrincat in the 2016 draft. :\
That has always upset me, in part because I think the Oilers regretted passing on him in 2017 so they went out of their way to draft Yak since he’s skilled and shorter as well. But a very different skillset and body composition.
Hopefully Bowman and his team can have a similar draft to last year. I’m not a guy they knows the amateur prospects that well (follow more closely at the NHL level) but from accounts pretty much every selection is outpacing one year in. I know Bruce Curlock is a big fan of all of last year’s draft and he is a knowledgeable man (although always optimistic on the prospects).
AHL level, not NHL level – oops.
Much as I hate the early exit in the playoffs, I do love that we have time for you to do a prospect draft exploration. It is an interesting exercise to help casual observers like me get an insight into who to look for June 26 & 27 (which incidentally aligns with the start of summer for me – cue “School’s out for Summer” at 3pm on the 26th!)