The Edmonton Oilers appear to be conducting a full-on search for the team’s next head coach. It may be a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse, and doghouse in the hockey industry.
The team will start with Craig Berube based on reports. He is a no nonsense coach who believes that rugged defending is the truth and the light. Last year, his Toronto Maple Leafs did more defending than any since Thermopylae (who played in the old western league).
In Berube’s two seasons in Toronto, Auston Matthews spent 48 percent and 46 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites. That’s extreme for any NHL player. Matthews’ Dangerous Fenwick in year 1 (54 percent) was exceptional, while 42 percent this season reflects the same defensive load with fewer useful passes sent to the team’s top offensive player.
Some believe playing defense is the part of the game you have to prepare for, and Berube’s teams gameplan for it. Last year, the TML surrendered 299 goals, and increase of 68 year-over-year. The best defense in hockey is to not play defense in hockey. It’s called puck possession.
In 2024-25, Matthews most common linemate was Mitch Marner. Matthews-Marner had a 59 percent goal share at five-on-five. Music! Last season, Max Domi was the top linemate. The five-on-five goal share was 46 percent. Part of the problem came from how management spent the Marner money, but the deployment of Matthews by Berube was beyond curious.
Berube is a candidate for the Oilers partly due to that St. Louis Blues thrill ride back in 2019. I don’t know that any coach can claim “ride hot goalie from last place to Stanley” as a skill, and I don’t think Berube is the right man for the job in Edmonton.
The Oilers need to create more offense, that means increased possession and deploying the skill players in prime offensive roles.
The Oilers five-on-five expected goal share was 50 percent in 2020-21 (Dave Tippett), 52 percent in 2021-22 (Jay Woodcroft), 54 percent in 2022-23 (Woodcroft), 57 percent (mostly Kris Knoblauch) in 2023-24, 54 percent in 2024-25 (Knoblauch) and down to 51 percent in 2025-26 under Knoblauch.
Part of this is due to the marbling of youth into the skill lines, and I do think there is a small check down from the Glimmer Twins in five-on-five offense that we are seeing in real time. The 2025-26 season saw Connor McDavid score 2.46 points-60 at five-on-five, his lowest number of his career. His five-on-five goal share was 52 percent, the lowest since 2019-20. Is Craig Berube the guy to fix it? I don’t believe he is. His handling of Matthews serves as fair warning.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the roundtable and we’ll talk about the Berube interview and the type of coach needed for the Oilers next season. We’ll talk about the Montreal Canadiens, and how they procured a roster that should impact the NHL for next next 5-7 years. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
The New Newhook
One area where analytics and scouting are most valuable is finding young talent who’ve become undervalued to other organizations.
Newhook / Podkolzin / Verhaghe / Holloway
What these young players have in common is that they were acquired rather inexpensively when their previous orgs couldn’t find roles for them.
Who might fit this description that can help the Oilers, maybe at Centre or at RD?
Raty? Kesselring?
I don’t know that any coach can claim “ride hot goalie from last place to Stanley” as a skill, and I don’t think Berube is the right man for the job in Edmonton.
That’s it right there. I think it’s great that they’re speaking to him, I think it’s important for the organization to mine these interviews for elite perspective from as many head coaches as they can talk to about their team, but they can only hire one, and ultimately I don’t think Berube did anything in Toronto to justify the Oilers’ looking too long at him.
Laviolette was also mentioned by Friedman. This is good – there remains a small possibility that the Oilers will actually do serious interviews and look for both fit and a broader approach than a shiny new toy.
I still don’t believe anyone in the decision-making structure actually knows how to do this…but at least there’s a speck of hope.
I’m pretty sure an experienced GM and former agent are familiar with talking to people. I think the chatter around this is overblown. Bob has told us they want an experienced guy. There are only a couple available. There isn’t really a wide ranging search that can be done under that parameter
“The Oilers need to create more offense, that means increased possession and deploying the skill players in prime offensive roles.”
A contrarian take for sure, one I share. You have said many times LT as have others here that the Oilers are very predictable offensively. What has been driving them is elite players, mostly crushing it on the PP
This team should not be struggling 5v5, they should be dominant like the Avs. It’s the system. They are to my eye disjointed on the ice, spread out, and are not working to create better odds scoring chances, and the regular players being blendered and yoyo’d in a system that plays it safe – but still fails – struggle
I think this is what leads to the frustration we see pretty regularly now. They need a coach that coaches for better chance creation, and gives them more than one plan to respond to what the opponent does. Less thinking, more fun playing because more success, more involvement from more players, hopefully all
Berube is not the solution to defensive woes, just based on the last two years of TML play. They gave up more, and put their players in bad spots more often. Interviewing him shows that they are keeping an open mind, likely even gives them some ideas about what they really need to be looking for. But he is not the guy.
If mgt really has the backing to do what needs to be done, then back the truck up to David Carle’s door and see what it would take to pry him loose. Edmonton has a lot of the small city charm of a Denver north (minus the mountains). It would be a selling point, imo, and certainly worth exploring. A no is still an answer.
Respectfully disagree. The chances of a 36 YO coach jumping straight into the NHL and 3 superstars to manage, and not needing to learn on the job are pretty low. There is no more time for learning in the job, never was actually when they decided rookie coaches was the way to go
Well, it sounds like Carle is turning down all offers anyways, but we might’ve said the same thing about Cooper before the Lightning took him on. He’s younger than Cooper when he started, but there are a lot of people who understand coaching really well that feel he is ready to make the jump.
My point is mainly to say, cast the net wide in the search, even if it means interviewing people I think are unsuitable (Berube) or unwilling (Carle) to learn what you can about the different approaches, and potentially the different perspectives of who the Oilers are perceived to be.
It seems they are doing that. The difference with Carle and Cooper is that Cooper came in while the team was young and grew with them. It’s too late for that. It was when Woody was hired IMO
Yeah, in hindsight firing Woodcroft was an unforced error.
Berube is definitely not the droid we’re looking for! He’s probably the opposite of what we’re looking for. He can coach, but not this roster, and definitely not the Leafs roster as we have seen.
“The league is not going to overrule the Golden Knights here. Contract law and contract language are just that,” said Seravalli. If puck possession is the game and Cassidy is not available then the other coach who believes in puck possession is Darryl Sutter!!!!
— yeah no one privy to the details of the contract sharing. He’s being paid in full, relieved of his duties but on the payroll. As long as they are paying him they dictate his employment
— Interviews for a head coach should be a great opportunity to gather intel on what others think of the Oilers : strengths and weaknesses, how did they prep for games v Oilers. Get opinions on players. Other assistants they think highly of etc.
— does the fact that the team who fired their coach only to see new coach come in and make team better : does that put pause to getting Cassidy?
— So loser / bush the way Oil doing this : it would be comical the presser should the new coach not be Cassidy and or having to give something up to get him. …
Presumably, Cassidy could also quit/terminate his own contract.
That is not how most contracts work. Termination of the contract usually requires mutual agreement.
For a commercial contract you are correct.
Employment contracts often do not require mutual consent for termination for obvious reasons, i.e., your employer can not require you to continue working indefinitely.
— ding ding ding. : that’s the conflict. It wouldn’t be rational or in best interest to not get paid (not to mention terms of contract which presumably don’t allow).
— Conversely it’s not in Vegas interest to have employee interviewing with competitors
— Best guess would be Cassidy would like to coach the Oilers but likes to get paid like anyone else and Vegas sees an opportunity to get stuff for free.
I am not sure Seravalli / whoever he talked to understands “contract law” lol.
Hiring Sutter now would be Hitchcock redux.
— there would be “garden leave / non compete” provisions.
— Obv they can’t prevent future employment indefinitely but certainly can prolong
Fine… interview Berube, hell interview Babcock. Just make sure to get the right guy this time. Hopefully the Cassidy situation gets settled when the league meets with Vegas. But it is Vegas so be prepared for anything, including Cassidy not coaching next year.