This is Ziggy, over a decade ago. She was still a puppy. She still has that hedgehog, I have stitched it together a hundred times. My little buddy is older now, we’re walking slower and sleeping more. Dogs are family. Ziggy is my dear friend. Please read this.
I remember the day we got her. Went to the pet store, bought that hedgehog, some other toys, dog food, a crate and a bed to put inside the crate, and went home. The crate plus bed had a cost attached, and represents a waste of money. She never slept in her crate in the basement. She cried and barked and cried some more, until someone (not me!) couldn’t take it anymore. Ziggy has slept on the bed all the days since the first day. The dog training worked well, she had the entire house trained within a week, and has lived as a queen all her life. I wouldn’t change a thing.
If the Oilers bring in a new coach, things will change. They always do. I think the players who could be negatively impacted are young and not yet established as NHLers. I’m not talking about Vasily Podkolzin or Matt Savoie, but am talking (at least a little) about Ike Howard and Spencer Stastney, and certainly about Quinn Hutston and Connor Clattenburg.
Howard is an impressive prospect who improved a great deal over the course of the season. I can see him showing well in training camp and establishing himself as (say) the No. 3 left wing on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at center. It could be a solid outscoring line, maybe with Kasperi Kapanen. I don’t think the new coach will be married to the idea, and Howard will have to impress right away.
The new coach, if the Oilers replace Kris Knoblauch, may well handle Howard the same way as Knoblauch did one year ago. Howard would have lost all of the rapport he established with Knoblauch and would be forced to start all over again with the new man.
There will be danger too, you can lose a player to waivers (Howard won’t be eligible) in these circumstances. Edmonton damn near lost Brandon Davidson to waivers in the fall of 2015, about the time that photo of Ziggy was taken.
You and I know Quinn Hutson far better than we know Owen Michaels, but a new coach will be introduced to them in the fall. They will be equal, despite the season Hutson just delivered.
Two-way players, like Savoie and Podkolzin and Josh Samanski, will have an advantage. A new coach, arriving in Edmonton, is going to preach suppression of shots and high-danger chances. I don’t think that would be a deal breaker for Howard, he improved a great deal in Bakersfield over the winter.
However, coaches always value experience over youth. Knoblauch was the same way, but he would have seen Howard’s improvement and would recognize his NHL-readiness based on progress observed.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Kevin McCurdy. We’ll talk Knoblauch, Bruce Cassidy and the Oilers immediate future. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
How would the Edmonton Oilers benefit from a coaching change?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7272831/2026/05/13/edmonton-oilers-coaching-change-kris-knoblauch-bruce-cassidy/
They clearly would, but they would benefit as equally with a change in management, post a thorough search that is. But that isn’t in the cards so time to move on from that. Isn’t it a forgone conclusion that Knoblauch is out, there’s no coming back from this cluster…..even if they buy Knoblauch a good strong coffee. Class acts those in the executive suite
Even Chayka got this right … gave Berube his flowers at the initial presser, then let him go in a dignified manner a week later … even though they probably had zero intention of keeping him.
Bowman/Jackson continues to stumble and bumble around.
Good observation. Can’t rely on this management group to do it right JMO
Hey on a funny note. Do you think Chayka was scared of Berube….he was and I bet is still pretty intimating, so he figured gotta do him right even though we’re firing him
To me, the most interesting player impacted by a potential Cassidy (or other) hire is Darnell Nurse. He’s got all the tools to be great, has been much better under other coaches, but currently needs the toolbox to be reconstructed.
Knowing how a new coach evaluates Nurse and their plan for him would be critical before assessing potential trades.
— I got something stuck in the filter waiting approval
— the dismissal of Bérubé is at least handled correctly and Chayka will run a robust process and analysis of scenarios.
— the leads too have 2 years left with their captain but he’s more moveable this offseason
— the coach for the Leafs depends on their longer-term plan. I’d guess they do like the Jays did when they hired Shapiro Atkins and run it back a year + McKenna (presumably) and see.
— a reset with the haul from Matthews and top draft pick : leafs fans with Sundin telling them they have a plan would sell IMO.
— The Oilers problem of course is that the current management team that reupped KK for 3 years now has to convince I’m not sure who : the owner + OBC consultants + Coffey ? that they can get better than the guy they said was going to get them to the promise land and this time they will get the right guy trust us.
— And above JJ and Bowman there doesn’t seem to be independent knowledge people to properly vet this. IMO.
— Hence the gong show and schooling of Vegas that hurts Oil which is the prerogative of any competitor.
I did not hear this statement that the intention for next season is McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line. Interesting.
How the heck could this work and just who’s idea is this?
It is absolutely the wrong way on a one way street. Oilers would go from a two line team to a one line team. They do not have a ability to do this.
And so whoever thinks this, was the same brain that felt this was the way to start the 25/26 season.
Stauffer has been promoting this for a couple of weeks now.
His premise is that its the way to “get more forwards involved” as you only have to find 20-21 5 on 5 minutes for each of them together and not 20-21 minutes each on separate lines leaving like 10 minutes to split among the 3rd/4th lines.
I think he’s forgetting about the option of, you know, 18 minutes each on separate lines….
Absolutely new coach has to get more forwards involved. In my opinion, that was the downfall of Frederic. And why Arvidson did not succeed.
But his solution is silly.
Start thinking past the present game, into longer term development of roles and the ability to add energy and spice into the game to soften it up for the 17-18 minutes top two lines will play.
You want health, energy, defined roles ready for playoffs? Then build them.
Arvidsson didn’t succeed due to poorly timed injuries, everytime he was gaining momentum he’d end up injured and have to start all over again.
I meant to say “We found the problem!”
“Fire Stauffer!”
Sounds like KK firing is now official according to The Athletic…
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7161485/2026/05/14/edmonton-oilers-kris-knoblauch-fired/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nhltw&source=nhltw
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
If the Oilers plan all along was to let Knoblauch go, then their handling of this has been horrendous.
If they wanted to explore Cassidy as an option, and if it didn’t work out retain Kris, then it was risky – if it got out, they’d be scuttling a coach they just re-signed and were considering keeping.
The fact it got out made a return for Knoblauch impossible.
Arguably the most important off season in 30 years for this franchise gets off to a rough start.
Have to think Bowman and Jackson are very much on the clock as well. Fatigue and injuries only go so far in masking a body of work with some massive mistakes at critical junctures.
Brett Kulak with a series winner last night puts an exclamation point on mishandled assets and mis-reads on players.
Will be an interesting few months for the organization.
— next year is Nuges 15th season as an oiler
— he will be coached by his 10th head coach : crazy
Man, the Nuge has seen it all in Edmonton. I would love for him to be a part of a cup win
— 6 in 12 seasons for McD if my math is right
— anyone who argues the Oilers management competent in the era doesn’t measure things properly IMO.
— Oiler management is defined as Bush League
And if we’re counting interims he’s had 5 general managers
Nuge has had 7 GMs
He needs 1 more.
Ex Oiler Brett Kulak gets the OT series winner for the Avs. Good thing we gave him up to bring in Tristan Jarry.
Maybe they should be firing Bowman tonight.
Literally came here to post this 🙂
Treated as negative value/cap dump in the trade. Good for him!
TOI for the Colorado D tonight:
Toews – 29:45
Kulak – 26:54
Makar – 25:50
Burns – 19:47
Manson – 19:24
Ahcan – 03:35
Amazing
Lost in this analysis – Makar was injured and left this game.
“Details schmeetails”
-el diablo
Kulak series winner in OT for the Avalanche. Always good in the playoffs!
He’ll have made it to the Final in 4 of the last 6 years if the Avs can win the next round
I’m happy for the guy, he was a good Oiler
Really happy for Brett Kulak tonight!
I would be happy to see Kulak win a Cup. The guy is a machine in the playoffs.
Brett Kulak breaks up a 2 on 1 and sends the puck down the ice, trails the play and scores the game winner in OT to send the Avalanche to the Conference final.
Avs scored 4 goals after trailing 3-0 in the first period.
What a game.
Brett Kulak sends the Wild packing – Avs to the WCF
This series was way quicker than I expected.
I predicted a Carolina-Colorado final as many have, and I do believe when it arrives we will see the 2 most deserving teams in the big dance
Varsho walk off grand slam!!!
Hopefully it’s the springboard for the Bluebirds this season like Bichette’s walk-off HR vs. Texas was for last season.
Has anyone else noticed that all the teams still playing have 4 th lines that people rave about??? Oilers 4 th line = place for misfit toys…Maybe next year!!
Stauff also saying that it’s a tough day – they are essentially waiting for the news to drop – doesn’t believe Spec tweets out wha the did if it’s not happening.
Oilers execs have made their way back to Edmonton after the Mothers Day weekend.
Stauff saying that, if Knob is fired, the replacement will be an experienced head coach with a ring.
He didn’t name Cassidy and I wonder if Lavioalettle is also an option – he was on Overdrive today.
Only Stan Bowman has won a Stanley Cup coaching for more than one team in the modern era.
I mean Scot Bowman.
Still no word on Knobber.
It’s such a weird situation. I was thinking last night this is something I would expect the Leafs to be involved with, and then they actually go about firing their coach today in the normal fashion with a simple announcement.
Listening to Stauffer talking to Rob Brown. He asked Rob about 4 candidates
Bruce Cassidy
Craig Berube
Peter Laviolette
Mike Babcock
Brown laughed at the Babcock suggestion. Didnt seem like Bob was joking.
Dear lord. Haha, it would be 100% oilers to have Babcock and Bowman.
Hope we don’t regret the Isaac Howard trade. I didn’t like that we gave up fair value for him
Likely won’t know for awhile.
Howard won the Hobey Baker but Sam O’Reilly was just named OHL MVP.
O’Reilly is 2 years younger so has more runway.
Howard has already thrived at NCAA and AHL levels. The list of impressive junior players who couldn’t make the jump to the A is miles long. Next season will tell a lot as Howard tries to stick in the NHL and O’Reilly makes the jump to the A.
I’m firmly of the belief that if Howard is given real linemates and minutes next season there will be no doubt anymore that he is an effective top six winger for the next 6-8 years.
It is now not uncommon for young players to spend little or no time in the AHL.
Too soon to know if O’Reilly is one of them but Tampa has inserted 20 year old players into their NHL lineup before. and since they will be bumping up against the cap, they may welcome a player on an ELC to help out if he’s ready.
Its a copycat league. Oilers used to study the winners to emulate the path to success.
Teams now copy McDavid and his speed tactics. Team now copy Panthers aggressive forecheck and overall pressure that works against high talent teams.
Who should the Oilers copy now?
Because what and who they present as right now, is not getting past some of these extreme high energy teams we are watching post season.
So Oilers cannot choose a coach who “fits” They need a new coach with new ideas who can build them into a unit that functions together. This cannot be 3 players and it cannot be 2 lines.
How are the Oilers viewed? As a 2 line team with a hot power play and poor goaltending. Shut down those lines, get traffic on front, you can beat them.
So.
Oilers need to change, to morph, create a new identity capable of game plan needed to beat anybody. Full team, hard to play against, strong roles, loads of heart and intensity. Then McDavid and Draisaitl step in as the difference makers. Yes, they need some good GM work. But:
Who is the coach who create this new version?
I don’t think you can separate coaching from roster construction.
For example, the Oilers have been trying for years to find a dominant 3C but have failed repeatedly.
In the meantime Colorado has acquired Nic Roy, Nazem Kadri, Jack Drury and Parker Kelly.
Even the still building Ducks have the luxury of playing 40 goal scorer Cutter Gauthier or dynamic Beckett Sennecke on their 3rd line with more aces up their sleeve.
The Oilers have made far too many bad bets on bottom 6 players to have the depth to present a balanced attack and, as we saw against Florida, an effective 3rd line can make all the difference.
Ryan McLeod is a legit 3C in the NHL.
and becoming almost unplayable in the playoffs at even strength……
Has anyone discussed the NHL awarding the Calder trophy to 18 yr-old Matthew Schaefer? Although he’s the youngest guy ever to win it, for me its not really a surprise.
I’m glad it was unanimous. If you set 6(!) NHL records, you deserve to win and not have some media jerks running around yelling about how Panarin had a better point total……
Matthew Schaefer a unanimous Calder Tropy winner.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/48760989/islanders-matthew-schaefer-unanimous-calder-trophy-winner
I hope Cassidy works out because there not many good coaching options available.
Bruce Cassidy has made it past the 2nd round twice in his 2.5 decades behind NHL benches.
Or 1 decade
He’s been an NHL head coach in each of the last three decades Scungilli.
Made it past the 2nd round twice despite being gifted teams right in the window.
A broken clock is usually right twice but not many times after that.
Even if he sucks he’s still a better coach right now than Knoblauch, so there’s that
Jared Bednar had made it past the 2nd round once time in a decade as Avs head coach until this season – this is his second time past the first round.
Hey I agree with you. The Avs have this rep as a wagon org but the results are a bit light for that IMO.
Helps when the league leans hard in your favor on the weird PP drawn stats.
Since Bednar became their head coach in 2016-2017, they’ve had 2584 PPs and have averaged 5:28 PP TOI/G. The next closest team is Florida with 2484 PPs and 5:17 PP TOI/G.
Colorado’s rank by season:
2016-2017: 19th with 239 PPs (Philadelphia was 1st with 277 PPs) (Edmonton was 15th with 245 PPs) 2017-2018: 1st with 296 PPs (Tampa Bay was 2nd with 276 PPs) (Edmonton was 31st with 210 PPs)2018-2019: 1st with 286 PPs (Calgary was 2nd with 275 PPs) (Edmonton was 25th with 222 PPs)2019-2020: 1st with 241 PPs (Vancouver was 2nd with 236 PPs) (Edmonton was 20th with 200 PPs)2020-2021: 1st with 207 PPs (Florida was 2nd with 190 PPs) (Edmonton was 9th with 174 PPs)2021-2022: 1st with 279 PPs (Florida was 2nd with 262 PPs) (Edmonton was 19th with 235 PPs)2022-2023: 12th with 261 PPs (Ottawa was 1st with 306 PPs) (Edmonton was 6th with 275 PPs)2023-2024: 2nd with 278 PPs (Ottawa was 1st with 283 PPs) (Edmonton was 20th with 243 PPs)2024-2025: 8th with 234 PPs (Ottawa was 1st with 269 PPs) (Edmonton was 23rd with 215 PPs)2025-2026: 4th with 263 PPs (Florida was 1st with 266 PPs) (Edmonton was 26th with 222 PPs)Being 1st 5 years in a row is certainly interesting. Apparently, if you’re Colorado or have a Tkachuk on your team, you have great odds of receiving the most PPs in the league (9 of the last 10 seasons).
David Carle raises his hand (I mean he would, if he could be pried from his cushy gig in Denver)
My intel (from a colleague/client that is a UD alumni and maintains strong ties to the program) is that he’d only leave as Bednar’s replacement – loves Colorado.
Carle rejected a massive offer from the Hawks last offseason and they have a huge collection of talent he could grow with.
It’s gonna take the sun moon and stars to pry him out of Denver and I don’t think he’ll end up being worth it for whoever does (he’s got some insane goalie luck during his run. Zeev Buium turning into the best defenceman in college while only going to DU because Shai did, etc.)
You get luck when you’re good but I think he’s just cultivating an aura and the actual cost to bring him will never be worth it. Saban couldn’t do it. Hakstol, Quinn, Montgomery have had 1 actually survive the jump.
— well he’s their “locked in look no further” v.6.2, 2026 Oil edition hire of key personnel telegraphed early with little indication of a robust process.
— hope it works out. He’d be the first in demand in prime head coach with current NHL experience that has taken teams deep that the Oil have hired.
He’s a loser baby.
Lost to Knoblauch in the Pacific finals last year.
Terrible defensive team this year (worse than Knoblauch’s Average Oilers). Got canned as they faced not making the playoffs.
Other than the lust for blood and endemic churn-itis in Oilerville I cannot see why so many are enamoured of him.
It’s pretty obvious the owner is sticking with the current GM and POHO through this gong show, so thoughts about what LT said in his Athletic piece that it would not be wise to have this management group handle a shift from the McDavid era…..in other words, and let me use my words, they can’t be trusted to stick handle a time when McDavid wants out and the “big” trade” needs to happen
PS: in a perfect world, as LT pointed out yesterday, new management would be in place to hire their coach….but the Oilers will be stuck with SB’s choice, whatever that is. This is so short sighted, because literally McDavid could trigger his out as early as next season if he wants….or next off season…but there’s no way the Oilers can go sown the Marner route and get nothing
— They have to at ownership level gaming what happens if they don’t win and CmD says :”yeah I’m not going to re-up”
— Bowman JJ gone if they don’t win Cup (or at least don’t make the finals) IMO.
— Org can have an unsigned McD going into his last year IMO
Valid points….you mentioned below and I hope I got this right, and correct me if I’m wrong, should the owner have a buffer advisory person(s) between him and the GM/POHO? Seems right to me, because of coarse, if he listens to the GM and POHO, nothing is wrong….
— yeah if I had to guess that’s the fatal flaw.
— JJ could have been a good POHO IMO: big picture guy ran a business, knows hockey insiders, the process, coaching experience etc: but he was GMng which was a flag and the hire of Bowman not inspiring, and he’s remote.
— The owner doesn’t have a group around him, above the day to day that’s objectively providing insight IMO. Just OBC as far as we can tell. Coffey for sure has some current hockey insight.
— They needed one of KK Woodcroft to grow into a Bednar
Astute, and it’s too bad the two coaches you mention had management that didn’t help them develop, i.e. signing a wholly inappropriate Mangipane to distract the task at hand or signing Campbell to be a starter (just two examples of coarse) IMO
I’ve seen several say “they can’t allow McDavid to go the Marner route.”
I don’t want that to happen, but the Oilers have no way to control that outcome. Connor has a full NTC as I understand it and is completely in the drivers seat. He doesn’t have to move until he wants to. There is no “the Oilers can’t go down that route.” It is out of the Oilers hands
I’d have to agree with you, can’t let fear dictate how to run the organization, assuming capable and competent management. This said, I am hopeful that if McDavid decides he wants to leave, he will let it be known so he can be traded. Just a gut feeling that he does care deeply and too boot, would not want to leave his good friends, like Leon, in that kind of predicament. I understand the business side, but my sense is McDavid thinks more broadly and is aware of his legacy. Not saying Marner wasn’t, as I don’t know enough about him but I’ve been watching McDavid closely and he is uber aware of how he steps in this market, a much different market than in TO
Alright haven’t really disected it yet but here is as good a layout as I could come up with to sort of put last 3 coaches up on a board through transitions.
See what anyone might be able to decipher about coaching effects maybe helps frame context.
A. Tippett (20-21), (21-22 Tippett -> Woodcroft) [Woodcroft 22-23]
B. 23-24 Woodcroft -> Knoblauch, (Knoblauch 24-25 Full), [Knoblauch 25-26]
GP:
A. 56, (44 -> 38), [82]
B. 13 -> 69, (82), [82]
Record:
A. 35-19-2, (23-18-3 -> 26-9-3), [50-23-9]
B. 3-9-1 -> 46-18-5, (49-25-8), [41-30-11]
PTS%:
A. .643, (.557 -> .724), [.665]
B. .269 -> .703, (.646), [.567]
SF%:
A. 50.4%, (50.8% -> 54.1%), [52.1%]
B. 56.1% -> 55.4%, (54.8%), [50.9%]
HDSF%:
A. 48.9%, (49.8% -> 52.4%), [53.2%]
B. 56.4% -> 55.1%, (54.2%), [52.1%]
HDGF%:
A. 47.1%, (45.3% -> 51.1%), [49.6%]
B. 38.5% -> 57.4%, (53.3%), [50.8%]
SH%:
A. 9.1%, (8.2% -> 9.6%), [10.3%]
B. 5.9% -> 10.4%, (9.8%), [8.4%]
SV%:
A. 0.908, (0.904 -> 0.915), [0.900]
B. 0.868 -> 0.902, (0.905), [0.900]
PDO:
A. 99.9, (98.6 -> 101.1), [100.3]
B. 92.7 -> 100.6, (100.3), [98.4]
EVGF/60:
A. 2.68, (2.51 -> 3.42), [3.18]
B. 1.91 -> 3.31, (2.94), [2.56]
EVGA/60:
A. 2.61, (2.76 -> 2.57), [2.81]
B. 3.52 -> 2.44, (2.48), [2.78]
PK%:
A. 82.5%, (76.9% -> 81.3%), [77.0%]
B. 70.0% -> 81.6%, (79.4%), [77.8%]
PKGA/60:
A. 6.31, (8.42 -> 6.91), [8.55]
B. 10.15 -> 6.75, (7.12), [7.91]
PPGF/60:
A. 10.51, (11.14 -> 9.85), [12.54]
B. 8.84 -> 10.22, (10.88), [11.28]
Alright just for perspective. Given how garbage they always seem at start of seasons i redid the chart leaving transition seasons as is but removing first 20 games from stats of each coach in place of entire season results.
Logic being: fair to at least suggest any of the clear ” new coach bump” you can infer is just misconstrued correlation over causation.
A. Tippett 20-21 (G21-56), (21-22 Tippett -> Woodcroft) [Woodcroft 22-23 (G21-82)]
B. 23-24 Woodcroft -> Knoblauch, (Knoblauch 24-25 Full (G21-82)), [Knoblauch 25-26 (G21-82)]
GP:
A. 36, (44 -> 38), [62]
B. 13 -> 69, (62), [62]
Record:
A. 23-11-2, (23-18-3 -> 26-9-3), [40-13-9]
B. 3-9-1 -> 46-18-5, (39-17-6), [32-21-9]
PTS%:
A. .667, (.557 -> .724), [.718]
B. .269 -> .703, [.677], [.589]
SF%:
A. 51.2%, (50.8% -> 54.1%), [53.5%]
B. 56.1% -> 55.4%, (54.1%), [51.4%]
HDSF%:
A. 50.1%, (49.8% -> 52.4%), [54.8%]
B. 56.4% -> 55.1%, (53.8%), [52.8%]
HDGF%:
A. 48.9%, (45.3% -> 51.1%), [52.4%]
B. 38.5% -> 57.4%, (55.1%), [51.9%]
SH%:
A. 9.4%, (8.2% -> 9.6%), [10.8%]
B. 5.9% -> 10.4%, (10.1%), [8.7%]
SV%:
A. 0.912, (0.904 -> 0.915), [0.906]
B. 0.868 -> 0.902, (0.909), [0.903]
PDO:
A. 100.6, (98.6 -> 101.1), [101.4]
B. 92.7 -> 100.6, (101.0), [99.0]
EVGF/60:
A. 2.76, (2.51 -> 3.42), [3.34]
B. 1.91 -> 3.31, (3.11), [2.68]
EVGA/60:
A. 2.54, (2.76 -> 2.57), [2.62]
B. 3.52 -> 2.44, (2.35), [2.71]
PK%:
A. 83.1%, (76.9% -> 81.3%), [78.2%]
B. 70.0% -> 81.6%, (81.1%), [78.6%]
PKGA/60:
A. 6.12, (8.42 -> 6.91), [8.14]
B. 10.15 -> 6.75, (6.88), [7.64]
PPGF/60:
A. 10.84, (11.14 -> 9.85), [13.11]
B. 8.84 -> 10.22, (11.42), [11.54]
I’ll leave it there for now.
Intend to add management layers of roster rank to start season, roster rank post deadline.
Like with the qualitative worst to best rosters -> which coach made the best of it relative sort of subjective attempt layer.
But real things before rain sets in. Just thought this might help hivemind sort of statistically frame
Tippet, tippet to woody, where team seemed at with woody, what knobby has or hasn’t really positively maybe improved things. At least gut check narrative vs season over season results.
1 quick note:
Full season woodcroft minus the “let’s just burn 1st quarter of the season” closest resembles his “coach bump take over from tippet” results.
Outside of pk looking a bit better trending under knoblauch -> everything seemd worse than woodcroft results really.
Now how much of that is management fault due to rosters over “new coach smell” wearing off just like often see in hot new unknown goalie compared to book is written and goalie/coach/system are changing and adapting enough to stay above replacement competitive.
Which is my arguement this season just seemed like 1 trick pony doing same show jumps and expecting new results.
Not against running him back but he truly needs to be busy this summer identifying blindspots and weaknesses and figuring out right team to mitigate/improve on these. Not just get caught up in his record and be stubborn this season it was clear since start opposing coaches had him gamed pretty hard and he either:
A. didn’t see it (foolish)
B. didn’t care to adapt or grow (arrogance)
C. Couldn’t get team to buy in fully on adaptions (erosion of effectiveness)
This is my point.
Quenville took him behind tje woodshed..ready for him because maurice studied and showed every other team how best to do it. He just stayed there though after it happened. That can’t happen again.
The whole can’t be bothered doing much of anything like/about line matching just put as much mcdavid group tilted in offensive end FTW -> has failed him since he lost championship in junior. NOTHING AVSOLUTELY NOTHING IN HIS TIME HERE SHOWN IN REGULAR SEASON SUGGESTS HE REALLY SEES THE PROBLEM WITH THIS.
that is a clear problem.
Look at these Percentages.
Tippett is a good coach at 9.4% shooting, .912 saves, 100.6 PDO, bad coach at 8.2% shooting, .904 saves, 98.6 PDO
Woodcroft is a good coach at 10.8% shooting, .906 saves, 101.4 PDO, bad coach at 5.9% shooting, ..868 saves, 92.7 PDO
Knoblauch is a good coach at 10.1% shooting, .909 saves, 101.0 PDO, bad coach at 8.7% shooting, .903 saves, 99.0 PDO
SH%:
A. 9.4%, (8.2% -> 9.6%), [10.8%]
B. 5.9% -> 10.4%, (10.1%), [8.7%]
SV%:
A. 0.912, (0.904 -> 0.915), [0.906]
B. 0.868 -> 0.902, (0.909), [0.903]
PDO:
A. 100.6, (98.6 -> 101.1), [101.4]
B. 92.7 -> 100.6, (101.0), [99.0]
Get a goalie and you’ll love the coach. A smart coach just makes sure all their percentages are good, right?
The outlier in this excercise is why was woodcroft fired when he was?
Like who waa braintrust behind thwt decision and what were the logical reason(s) given?
If they do an actual forensic audit:
The answers around that exact decision moment -> i’d be suprised if they aren’t a reocurring source of the “teams” major problem.
The team was turning around by stats before he got fired. The team was also not in a good head space like this season. There is more to coaching a team than just the tactics and stats. The coach has to be able to manage the group and build them up. It’s not easy for sure, but that’s the job, I don’t think Woodcroft or Knoblauch showed they have developed that ability at the NHL level yet
They were both rookies and may learn, I think it was risky to make those two choices given the arc of Connor’s career. Learning on the job is wasting time well into Connor’s career. 2015-2016 would have been the time for that, but they flip flopped between guys not really suited for this team. Maybe Nelson could have done it but didn’t get the chance
I’d also argue:
Knoblauch has been given the best defensive options and i think has done a bit less with more than woodcroft give personel context in percentages.
How much of a difference does a coach consistently have or should have on percentages? Is the nuance.
I agree PDO is an easy grab all in general.
But just as important to me is even strength numbers. this team can mask a lot of ugly out played type optics just with it’s powerplay.
But that stuff and like that dive i did last week to check my eye/gut test of “this 1 PP unit to rule them all garbage just seems like a place that’s clearly innefficient” is where coaching the greatest player in a generation is he the right coach for growing mcdavid’s usefullness/optimizing his minutes or is he still stuck in same mode he lost juniors by overrelying on mcdavid over optimizing team around him? Can he go past excessively overplaying him with no accountability just hoping he can win it?
P.s. sorry for burst streams of concious replies.
I like your post.
And i do truly think the kneejerking going to markets desperate free agent or in season trading editions is biggest issue that this team has.
Way above coaching as “the problem” that most hinders consistent long range improvememts.
They can’t afford to “firethemall” they are out of takeoff runway on mcdavid home terminal.
So i hope bowman is kept. I also hope bowman is properly insulated and given keys to operate as independent of too much outside input or influence/pressure as any GM might be for next 2 seasons.
I just haven’t seen much out of knoblauchs time that suggests growth in team game this way leads.
This year to me was a hideous waste of time from a coach benefit perspective.
Bowman gets 1 fire a coach or bring coach back with better support around him and some crystal clear directives between the big chair and behind the bench.
If that answer is alreasy locking in on play mcdraivid 23 minutes a game FTW.
I’m okay admitting i’d hope they at least are exploring options on trade value before season begins.
I would say you’re bang on with the trying to use a historically good PP to win and try to stay even at EV isn’t a winning strategy. During the 2024 run, when the Oilers killed off 34 consecutive penalties, the issue became that the refs not only had the usual push to call penalties less in important games but also they knew that an “even” amount of penalties favoured the Oilers so they call less still.
Winning the special teams battle with a 29.3%PP and 94.3%PK are both historically good numbers that masked the team being 55-55 at EV.
At 5v5 they had a 10.1% Shooting percentage with an .896 save percentage.
I don’t put that all on the goalie, per se but I do believe that the team has had runs of good and bad luck and that’s why we find ourselves without a cup and firing coaches during the periods of bad luck.
Per Mark Spector:
As of this moment — 11:37 a.m. MT — Kris Knoblauch has not been fired by the Edmonton Oilers.
We are expecting that to happen however, likely by day’s end.
I assume that implies that they have confidence in who they can hire as his replacement.
JJ must have heard Friedman on the radio say that the Oilers are Cassidy’s first choice
Maybe the Vegans are saying you don’t have a vacancy
You must be joking?
If this is true, then I hope they go about a proper hiring process. Gather what is needed by the staff, players, remaining coaches, management. Set the criteria and run a full hiring process and evaluate how they meet the criteria.
Stop chasing what you think you need without doing the work first. If it still ends up being Cassidy, then great. But at least make sure that is actually what you need. I am sick of this organisation trying to either a) chase down the shiny new toy, or b) think they are the smartest folks in the room without doing due diligence.
It’s embarrassing. It’s incompetence.
I am extremely confident this will happen😉
I hate to be a downer, but a little reality check for a few fans:
• The Oilers are never going to get a return for Omark;
• Nurse will never be played at forward;
• Todd Nelson will never be the Oilers head coach again.
Discuss these possibilities as a fun thought experiment but I have a better chance at winning a spell contest than any of these things happening.
So all that’s left is to have a drink, eh?
Glen Gulutzan is on his 2nd tour of duty as coach of the Dallas Stars.
What about a Justin Schultz norris
I’m still cheesed at how mocked i got for suggesting trading shultz snd yakupov to philly at the start of season after lockout when philly was desperate and pundits had locked in on their biggest needs being a top 6 winger and an offensive defenseman.
Yak’s game just by eye was not something that seemed like it was going to be sustainably worth much. Just weird kid who doesn’t appear to play well with others sell high for sure!
People mocked me for having “draft bust” coutierier as the centerpiece coming back this direction (the center type we’ve desperately always needed)
That’s a helluva burr to keep in your saddle there friend.
Yeah, i know. It was just like one of those perfect favorable gale winds with philly in a broken “win now with mystery goalie tumour throbbing.
Yak and shultz came off that short season with way better stats lines and hype than seemed logical.
Just once i’d love to see them not on the POS end of a major trade and that moment seemed like simmonds and coutierier being shopped with i can’t recall what younger defensemen aleo in rumours that seemed like a better 200ft type player…just seemed obvious sell high buy low.
And it clearly was exactly that but we rode opportunity into pillidy like we also do lol
Not true. If Omark plays another 3 games for Buffalo, we’ll get a 6th round pick…..
As much as Spector gets flared. He makes a good point that it might not be coaching that’s the problem in Edmonton, it could be the leadership group who have become uncoachable.
Maybe it’s time to shake it up, or maybe they’ve already been shaken up enough after losing to the Ducks in round one.
We made it to the cup finals twice in a row and lost to a powerhouse team that is on no one’s No trade list and we’re blaming the leadership Corp that was very clearly injured. We all expected this year to be a dud and we got a dud.
Yup. There were lots of signs & numbers showing it wasn’t just players not playing the system.
Point well taken. But this supposed coaching problem has been going on for years.
So when do the players become accountable? The players leadership group might need an attitude adjustment, if they already haven’t figured it out after all these years..
Those players took us to the finals. Sheer talent overcame a less than stellar roster and overcame a coach who could not build a bottom six, nor provide enough ice to build an entire team. Let alone pull the reigns on aggressiveness due to fear of penalties.
They’ve had their attitude adjusted like 10 times man. They lost by 1 goal in 24 and had more success than anyone not named Florida or Tampa the last 5 years.
I don’t think the players have an issue with accountability. I think management does, and the leadership have been very open to saying so. If the players have to be accountable and under the microscope, why doesn’t everyone else? When an Oiler player has a bad game, generally, they say it. Are they a team or a bunch of employees?
I think 97 has realized he gave everything the last 2 runs and it still wasn’t enough. So what’s the common denominator? Decision makers who built the damn thing (and goalies).
Mark Spector was the King of clickbait takes before anything was online.
You could have just s easily posted:
We made it to the cup finals twice in a row and lost to a powerhouse team that is on no one’s No trade list and we’re blaming the Coaching when the Leadership Corp was very clearly injured. We all expected this year to be a dud and we got a dud.
Connor was pretty clear they want to grow as players and are open to changing what they do. They want to win a Cup and status quo hasn’t cut it
When? After this season? Too late for a few people who could have used the “open to change” attitude when Art Ross was on no one’s list of priorities.
Too late for a goalie who could have used 200-ft attitude when he publicly aspired to Team Canada, or the goalie who rose from the AHL/forgotten status to carry the team when they needed it (only to be forgotten late in the game when he’s working on a shutout and a better SV%, some of which might have extended his career).
When McD makes Selke his personal goal, Oilers may win a Cup. Until then, more churn…
Spectre harps on coaching but now somehow hes close to this and Knoblauch is a “good guy” so hes pushing this narrative.
If coach starts 2026 season and stumbles, Spectre is all over Bowman for not bringing in a new coach.
And he will go on and on about Vegas for taking decisive coaching action.
I regret not making a composite highlight reel the one playoff run where spectre was just glitch stuck on asking goslies and players abiut choking…like premptively or in a rush after a bad outing just stuttering out “chcchoke. So choking…so does it kind of feel like choking?”
It was bonkers.
My guess – Cassidy to the Oilers, Laviolette to the Leafs
Maybe even Knoblauch to the Leafs.
I like Woody to the Leafs too if he doesn’t get LA
Connor Clattenburg isn’t a reasonable option for the team in October. He could be by year’s end if he puts in the work in the areas the org has identified to him but he did not do that in the second half of last season and got demoted, hurt and scratched.
I don’t imagine Hutson on the team along with Savoie and Howard and last year showed that Howard is a much more substantial player and years younger. I’m not sure Howard has any real rapport with Knob, at least not positive rapport.
Howard is coachable and hard working – I have little doubt he’ll do what needs to be done to be a full time NhL player this coming season and it’s reasonable to suggest 20G/40P similar to Savoie (Howard the more substantial producer in the AHL at the same age).
#Clatt4the4thLine
Yeah, that’s what you said last year.
And yet Clattenburg couldn’t really have had a better showing in the NHL.
Colton Dach might be a better option.
#Dach4the4thLine.
They do need 3 players on that line.
Clattenburg did great in his short stint in the NHL.
Then he proceeded to do zero of what he was doing in the NHL, work on nothing the org wanted him to, didn’t listen to what his AHL coach was saying (at least publicly) and got himself, hurt, demoted behind ECHL call-ups and benched).
As I said, he has a chance to develop in to an NHL player but he needs to put in the work – one would think it would be easy to not hunt for hits and fights as a sole goal and actually play 15 minutes of hockey, making puck plays, but not to this point.
If I was 20,a late pick, and got called up to the good life for running around, I probably wouldn’t stop doing that since it got me to the show.
Seems like they were so bus wanting to send a message to the big club and all the prospects that they may have messed with the boys head.
He stopped doing it when he was in the NHL and actually cared about where the puck was and being in a responsible position.
There was a message given to him when he was sent back down and his coach said, multiple times “we’re trying to get Connor to play hockey” – he refused to do so.
The Oilers know what he can do, they know he can hit and fight and impact the game that way – what they also know if that NHL coaches won’t play him unless there is a certain level of “hockey skill”, responsible positioning and puck play, etc.
Clattenburg does need to “work on” hitting and fighting, he needs to work on certain minimum level of required ability.
Yeah, those damn players who keep getting themselves hurt.
Just can’t listen.
Last night Friedman said there is a good chance the Oilers are only looking to replace Knob if they think there is a clear upgrade. They want to do their diligence and talk to Cassidy and get to know him better.
Isn’t this what we want? Always look for ways to improve.
Also, isles hired DeBoer confidently with a firing – they would have been talking to the recently fired coach prior to firing.
Friedman says the Leafs were talking to confidantes prior to firing Treliving.
This is normal course.
Even Knobs was in the system as Woody walked out the door
Knob was in the Rangers system and the Oilers would have had to ask permission to talk to Knob while Woody was still coaching – just like what is going on now.
I’m with you in not understanding the uproar. It’s absolutely normal course for both parties in a business relationship to explore possible upgrades wherever they can.
Restrictions under contract do exist and so of course KK can’t exactly shop around, but there’s every chance management talks to Cassidy and finds they still align with KK’s vision more closely.
They want to do their “due diligence” then hire the one guy they intended to hire all along?
Got it.
I don’t even know what this means or what this is getting at.
They see an asset that could potentially upgrade their team and they are looking to do their dilligence to see if they want to add that asset and if their is a mutual agreement to be made.
I would presume they would end up hiring him, if he was in agreement, but the first step is, you know, to talk.
Obvoiusly they could also move forward with Knoblauch.
There will be no search for a coach.
Just the usual targetting of a specific coach, then hiring.
All the drama aside (and I find it very ugly and telling how many in Oilerville have already fired the coach, GM, etc in this debacle, and are speculating on how this team will respond) nothing untoward has happened. Businesses are always looking to get better, at that means staff at all levels are subject to review and replacement if clear upgrades are available, whether you run a tire store or a hockey club. Was the coach aware that he was vulnerable? I’m assuming yes. But, I don’t know what I don’t know —except that it’s like a shark tank here in Oilerville and somebody publicly dropped a bucket of blood into the tank.
As for “clear upgrades”…
“If the Oilers need to shore up their goals against, did they not notice that Cassidy coached Vegas to the second-worst five-on-five save percentage in the NHL?” (Tychkowski)
Knoblauch catches a lot of heat. I don’t get it. The biggest underperformers on this year’s “average” team were McDrai. McD continued to pursue individual goals (literally) at the expense of the 200-foot game he will need to turn his talents toward, if he wants to win the team trophy. Draisaitl rarely showed interest in the Selke competition he said was his goal. Either of those things happen, this “average” team becomes the “good” team they are. Both of those things happen, none of this end of season drama is happening.
As men, our brains are only fully formed late in our 20s. Maturity often involves unlearning the habits that gave us success in our youth. Wisdom may only come once we realize we are the obstacle to the greater success we yearn for. Every man matures in his own way. Regret and failure are, however, pretty much required, pretty much constant. Neither McD nor Draisaitl are stupid. But they are young and often one-dimensional in their team play. Their obvious talents have, to my eye, skewed the expectations and accountability in Oilerville.
Yzerman is not a perfect comparison. Except in this: he had to both face the limits of his individual talents, and his responsibility to mature as a team player, as the Capt of his team. Eventually, I believe it was year 13, he put these together to lead his team to a Cup. Churning through coaches and goalies continues to muddy the waters in Oilerville. We —the ones who want a Cup in Oilerville— should be holding the Capt and his lieutenants this end of season. Instead, we’re muddying and bloodying the waters with yet another coach who’s “failed.” Ugh.
ps. Does anyone remember how often the F-group failed to care about the goalies early season? That closing minutes goal-against when Ingram was nursing a shutout? Other late game goals that helped sink the SV%, all because “attention to detail” was not worth it? Skinner’s public desire to rep Team Canada at the Olympics, made a joke by the play of the team in front of him —until Nov 26 when they “found” responsible play and he posted a .943SV% in his last five games? Too late. By then he was traded, and all anyone remembered was how he was “the goalie problem” they solved.
Accountability. When one of your teammates says, I want this, shouldn’t you, as Capt, rally the team to the cause?
Accountability. When your talented, two-times SCF coach’s job is on the line, shouldn’t you, as Capt, put aside your goal for more goals and play the shot-suppression system you’ve publicly said is the path to the Cup?
“Is our children learning?” Yes, perhaps. But too slowly to make a difference for Skinner, Pickard, Woodcroft, Tippett, etc and now, perhaps Knoblauch, Jarry.
Get a good/great goalie, improve the PK, learn to play defence, win. Paul Maurice had his stars playing shifts under 40 seconds and the Oilers have theirs all over a minute per (two on the PP!). The coach needs to get buy in or the players need to buy in? I blame the players here but blame doesn’t solve the problem. Maybe a different coach, maybe different players. The what is obvious, the how is hard.
Goalies: Once Oilers decided to play right (Nov 26-Dec 25) they seemed to have some good goalies. One even boasted a winning record and a .943SV% (5v5) until he was fired Dec 12.
Post Olympics Ingram was ranked 15th of 34 goalies who played at least 10 games with a .902 SV% (above “great” goalie’s liked Vasilevsky, Hellebuyck, Sorokin) (5v5 via NST).
Besides the late season “fabled final 11 games,” the post Olympics Oilers were getting better at PK (ranked 11th at 80.3% v 26th at 76.9% pre Olympics, via NHL).
Other post-Olympics trends (via Jason Grego and Clear Sight Analytics):
some splits on the season courtesy of Clear Sight Analytics.
Expected Goals Against 5v5:
Pre-Olympics – 29th
Post Olympics – 4th
Rush chance expected GA
Pre- 26th
Post- 4th
D-Zone chances expected GA
Pre – 24th.
Post – 16th
High Danger Chances For:
Pre – 5th
Post – 10th
High Danger Chances Against:
Pre – 30th
Post – 2nd
High Danger Chance Differential:
Pre – 16th
Post – 4th
Fire the coach?
Fire the goalie?
I don’t think so.
ps. If you’re hot and bothered about Cassidy, look at his GAA and SV% and WIN% this year. Or last year’s playoffs.
You mean “learing”😉
I never quite understand the Yzerman thing. Love the player, and don’t disagree that he rounded into a more complete player as his offensive skills diminished, but have you looked at that 1997 Wings roster? McDavid and Draisaitl took the Oilers to games 7 and 6 of the Final. They would have won both if they were surrounded by anything resembling that Wings roster.
That roster was pre-cap era and put together by one of the superpower rich teams.
A never-talked about note in Oilers history is them finally getting a super rich owner willing to spend just as a salary cap was implemented.
The “Yzerman thing” is that he was a juvenile Capt, very talented but lacking the mature game that would lead a team to its greatness. That he was surrounded by talent is part of the story. But the bigger part is that he took it upon himself to change his game for team benefit.
Imagine how this team would respond to its Capt sacrificing an Art Ross for a 200-ft game for team wins. That’s the “Yzerman thing.”
Is McD ready for that attitude change? I’ll be watching. It would be a powerful thing to witness.
Yes, this is what I was saying yesterday but the pitch-fork mob wanted no part of this king of rational. They complain about diligence and then when the Oilers do it they complain about that.
Due diligence now means interviewing the one guy you intend to hire?
Cool.
Is the diligence the interview part?
Just going to stur up the Bee’s nest here. What if Darryl Sutter was to coach the Edmonton Oilers next season. Post game interviews would shine
Sutter’s disdain toward media folks is palpable. His condescension is world class. He is also very funny. And, he has gotten great results from players one might think would not be inspired by his demeanour and tactics (e.g.,Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Lindholm). I would enjoy watching him getting another crack at the NHL. That being said, hasn’t he taken the onion off his belt, and permanently stepped away from coaching?
100% behind this. A Sutter coached Oilers team could win. Plus, we’d have lots to talk about.
Like Sad Sutter
In the last 20 years only 5 NHL coaches have been to back to back SCF
Babcock, Sullivan, Cooper, Maurice, KK
in the last 20 years only 2 NHL coaches have been to back to back to back SCF
Maurice and Cooper
—————
Why is Cassidy soooo much better than our current coach? Why would we not fix the assistant coaches vs the head coach and in some way not have to start all over again.
Are we the child with three toys and only two hands?
Who believes KK is as good as the other coaches listed? up or down vote.
IMO, KK did a reasonable job. He had 2 Dominate outscorers and a PP that was pretty much guaranteed Top 5 in the League because of Superman.
So KK had some big advantages most coaches do not have. It’s simple the goal was to win Stanley and that wasn’t accomplished.
Heard a good story on Sportsnet panel I believe. Cam Neely was having trouble scoring one playoffs and Harry Sinden told him he needed to get going. Neely replied “I am getting my chances” to which Sinden said “I am not paying you to get chances”.
Point is KK did a good job, but that is not the goal, the goal is to WIN THE STANLEY CUP.
I want a change because of what KK has done and not done. As said below, getting to 2 SCF with 3 superstars, 1 a greatest of all time, isn’t a feather in KK’s cap. Losing twice isn’t either
They can’t break out and get pushed to the perimeter and struggle against certain D systems. They don’t do well under a heavy forecheck and constant puck pressure. It hasn’t changed in years, and it’s their weakness. They made no visible adjustments I could see in SCF 2 and did worse than SCF 1
They need better coaching, and while KK may have chosen weak assistants, that’s on him. I think it was winchester that said some coaches top at AHL HC or NHL Asst. For me that’s KK
They lose match ups and they lose tactically with no real adjustments made outside line blendering.
Play mcdavid more from game 1 of the season is not the way to maximize a roster beyond him or better phrased “including him with everyone else”.
He lost in juniors the same way as he has for the last 2 seasons.
3 issues last season:
1. Compressed schedule if you run the thoroughbreds like this surely good chance they are broken down by playoffs. -> yep
2 this breakout and lack of outlet options is killing them -> yep
3. Surely anyone can see the sense of developing a 2nd powerplay unit to have another option in pocket and to make pp1 unit have more effective minutes with less risk included. Like florida had it gamed in finals it wasn’t difference maker when it needed to be could cost them more thaj the excessive minutes given to it seems to be gaining them -> yep.
I don’t understand what he did that might ve encouraging “let’s run it back again” either.
Holland , or was it Jackson that hired Knoblauch? And it was Knoblauch himself that put that coaching staff together. Maybe it’s time for Bowman to put his prefered coach in place.
Jackson hired Knoblauch, they knew they knew each other beforehand as JJ represented a bunch of Erie players
Maybe it was McDavid who hired Knoblauch..
Precisely one of those had the two best players in the world.
Precisely one of those lost both times.
I think Sullivan, who had Crosby&Malkin&Letang, is a closer comparable than Cooper or Maurice. Which kind of explains it all.
Very good points! I’d say fans are very in the dark about how “good” a coach is because it is so situationally dependent – how good is his roster, does the roster play to the coaches strengths, how good of a fit are the assistant coaches, does he have a great analytics department and scouting staff to assist his decisions, does the GM listen to him etc etc.
You can apply this to Coach KK, Cassidy, and all other coaches. It’s a frustrating perspective because fans like to know but I think there are lots of cases of “good” coaches flopping with new teams and “suspect” coaches thriving with new teams!
Thank you. Why, indeed.
2008-Penguins make SCF with HC Michel Therrien, 2009-Penguins fire Therrien mid-season, win 2009 SC with rookie HC Dan Bylsma. Penguins lose in the first round the next three years, two years later fire Bylsma, hire Mike Johnston, a year and a half later, fire Mike Johnston, hire Mike Sullivan. Win 2016 & 2017 SC, win one playoff round in Sullivan’s next 8 years.
It’s not so much the coach as it is the goalie. 2018 – Vegas acquire MAF and his .927 save percentage powers them to the final. Matt Murray’s save percentage falls off a cliff and so do the Penguin’s.
Hire/keep the coach that 1. Makes McDavid happy 2. Makes the team play defence/PK 3. Will actually be in charge of the team. The tail needs to stop wagging the dog.
Get a good goalie, play defence, PK, win.
Laviolette would play Howard in his proper role, Laviolette would line match, Laviolette Oilers would be coached to score 4 goals a game, every game.
Quadruple down on offense, tempo, pressure.
Do it, Stan.
If you didn’t like KK’s breakouts being overly reliant on the stretch pass, you’ll hate Laviolette. If you don’t like the Oilers being too much on the perimeter, you won’t like Lavi’s offense much better.
Those were the two biggest complaints from his time in Nashville and his time with the Rangers.
If you think Cassidy has a short shelf life, Laviolette’s is even shorter.
Just saying.
Cassidy seems very savvy with tactics. Like in how Marchessault described how they broke down the Oilers D structure when they won. The Vegas team we did beat wasn’t like the one they lost to
I think the Oilers need a coach like that. Knoblauch seems like a fatalist. Doesn’t line match to gain advantage, doesn’t seem to make tactical adjustments at scale. I don’t think tinkering with lines has much skill to it. Especially when you can’t stop
I agree with much of this take, but it also ignores the tactical changes KK made during the two runs to the Finals. He made changes on the fly that largely paid off, no idea what changed since.
They couldn’t break out in either series as I see it, and it was the root cause of not winning, along with constant D zone break downs, they are related
Was it tactical changes though? From my recollection, most of his changes were interchanging people. His one significant tactical change in the 2024 run to the cup final was against Dallas playing a 3rd man high to cut off the long stretch pass.
Against Fla both years, they refused to change tactics and use the middle of the ice for breakouts, leading to long shifts in the zone. Made their defense look worse (although admittedly, I’m biased as someone who has coached defense in high school and travel hockey, not forwards).
Can only reply to one but this is directed to both yourself and Slushy.
Disclaimer: I was one who thought the extension for KK was early and while I’m not out for blood with him, I’ve been open to a change earlier than most.
SS: poor zone breakouts = root cause of not winning.
— Not going to disagree with you, my eyes saw the same. And it only got worse the second time they faced FLA, when it should have been more competitive. Problem here is that Coffey runs the defense. This isn’t to crap on an old favourite, but more to say it’s not all KK’s fault, even if he wears the record by default due to being the head coach of record.
Rich: personnel changes over tactical adjustments.
— Yes, my recollection is the bulk of his impacts were via line up changes, like inserting the yutes at the right time, or Kapanen, etc. Seemingly risky moves at pivotal moments that paid dividends for the most part.
— One crucial tactical change that doesn’t get much ink is in the VAN series how they started funnelling shots on the VAN net from the point to overload Silvos with traffic and rebounds. And it worked. Wish he would have had the smoking gun against FLA but it was not to be.
— Again, same point as above about Coffey coaching the defense.
— Does anyone have a strong take on who our head coach next ought to be ?
— Heck Cassidy could be the next Berube.
— They really are going to have to nail the coaching staff (for another post but our entire staff is pretty underwhelming, very little NHL experience save Coffey, and none who are seemingly head coaches in waiting).
— I can’t recall ever having so much trepidation worrying about who the coach is going to be.
Colin Chaulk.
… is doing a great job in Bakersfield
Seriously. Todd Nelson.
His record is interesting, winning championships with multiple teams. It would be very risky given where the Oilers are at. They should have kept him back when there was time to grow with the players, like Cooper in Tampa
Mrs. Lovejoy voice “Won’t somebody think of the Todd Nelson!”
Cassidy seems to be the shiny object but hiring him toot sweet seems counter to what many, myself included, have been clamoring for: a thorough search
What are the criteria for your search?30 teams in the league are searching for the exact same thing.
It’s like searching for the winning numbers in the next Lotto.
It can be as difficult as finding those numbers. Thinking outside the box, how to handle 97 and 29, defensive structure, accountability etc. Interviewing more than one candidate just seems so logical but your point is also good. It just hasn’t worked too well with the Oilers. See the current GM (a famous name) and JJ. Other examples galore
Often the first choice is the best choice.
In the case of my first wife, a big no and in the case of my first car, a 1976 Monte Carlo, yes. But I get your point, the first choice can be
It will be Cassidy, but I still really like Laviolette. Was in the 3rd round in ‘24, took a .545 win % flyers team to the finals in 2010 and the same with a .573 Preds team in ‘17.
also seems like a guy players would want to go to battle for, based on everything in HBO 24/7 from the mid 2010s. Great personality
Not sure how accurate that is — a lot of what I’ve come across suggests he’s cut from the Keenan/Tortorella cloth. Except Torts has acknowledged he’s needed to round off the edges and adapt to the times to remain relevant, while Laviolette appears to be stuck in the old ways.
Interesting, he didn’t really seem like that to me. But if he is in fact very old school and not willing to adapt i would not be interested.
Gerard Gallant (health allowing) or Todd Nelson, perhaps in tandem with Nelly set to take over after a season or two.
Nelson isn’t leaving Pittsburgh to be an assistant somewhere else. He has close to the best situation for an assistant coach in the NHL right now. (Spezza is going to need a head coach when he becomes a GM in a couple of seasons.)
GG is 100% depending on health. If GG comes here, especially given age, Nelly would be an associate coach in waiting. Likely for one, maybe two, seasons before taking the reins.
That’s a better situation given the age of the core in either city.
The way the Oilers have played, and the way they played in the finals (yes I know game 7, also down 3 cob to start) just wasn’t up to snuff. The fact that they didn’t seem to have any adjustments for the second tilt was really disappointing. Offensive numbers are trending down
So I think a change is warranted. The only two I would consider are Cassidy and Laviolette, the interwebs say both are demanding coaches – shelf life – PL apparently also builds relationships. So sort of like KK but with a different and probably better style for these Oilers. Both coach for offense
It also says PL favours vets. If Cassidy is more open minded about just using the best players that is in his favour. We’ve been down the ‘vet experience’ road. I’d also look into who is better at team building in season
Disagree with PL (hat tip to richtm’s assessment above), ambivalent with Cassidy (could see it working to get over the hump, concerned about long term viability).
Todd Nelson (tactics, relationship/role building) and Gerard Gallant (builds to player strengths, team building) seem far better suited for where this team is right now. And they’ve won at levels below but not the Cup. Both have finals appearances, so they’ve been close and have had time to reflect on what it takes to make the final push. Odds vastly favour coaches who haven’t won over those who have.
I think Nelson is too risky having little HC experience, we’ve done that enough. And I’m not sure he has enough gravitas to convince the leaders to play better. Gallant maybe, he’s also reportedly unwell after living in China
Also, I have some inside intel on Gallant. A guy I know grew up with the Gallants. Apparently he’s quite a hard ass and also a demanding coach. Doesn’t seem he can hold a job for very long so somethings up. Two full seasons has been his max. Perhaps likeable, I don’t know
Nelson has an enormous amount of head coaching experience. He has five championships, three in the AHL on his resume.
He has been successful whereever he has been, even as an assistant coach.
True but Woody had loads of NHL assistant experience and AHL experience, Knoblauch was successful, but for me both were over their heads in the NHL
Neither Woody’s nor KK’s pre-NHL coaching records can hold a candle to Nelson’s.
Don’t forget what he managed to do with the dog’s breakfast he inherited after being called up to EDM from OKC. That was an outstanding turnaround with little runway.
GG is hard but he’s also a player’s coach. He is demanding but lets the horses run.
He’s a 2020s version of Sather, without the Cups.
Hypothetical:
Mcdavid & nurse to utah
Desnoyers, simashev, iginla to Edm
I would do it.
Charlie coyle at 6×6 there’s no feasible way you can likely get the pieces you might need in UFA crop. Then you are gun barrel to head next summer or season is a non stop circus.
There are teamd with open cap to spare and little value to add. I think it’s worth at least shopping concept for intelligent enough management team with maximizing asset value and lomger term competitive mindset
Like paying 10 million for murphy and dickinson and hoping jarry saves you just might not be best bet in proper risk assessment over desperate hope.
Utah likely wouldn’t, they don’t have the cap space.
The Mammoth have just over $14 million available while McDavid and Nurse total $21.75.
Desnoyers, Simashev and Iginla are all on ELC’s totalling about $1.9 million
They could do it if they wanted.
But that’s just looking at fits best prospects thst might make sense in teams that might do it who need game breaker.
Smash seems like perfect potential partner for bouchard.
Then 2 grade A center prospects that combined might make better balsnce team that makes up for loss of best in show.
Like value of package i think that is right type of potential.
I just think it’s crazy if they don’t consider options as next summer they start getting way less.
2 years of spend to cap desperate while imbalanced or retool that avoids wander in desert because you were smart enough to avoid running ship to ground.
.i lrefer latter option. Maximizing asset value
Hypothetically.
It would of been irregardless
I’m so ashamed by you’re enlightened anal retentive grasp’s of written english. Let me bow to you and dub thee “little lords of literacy”
Bask in all your glory.
(Yes i intentionally made that as offensively incorrect as possible…the funny part of this -> you can actually completely understand exactly the intent but soneone in a penal system like education structure taught you how to be less capable of doing that. Conditioned ignorance of a different sort…who wins? The gate keepers and those above them.)
P.s.
Hypothetical as used isn’t even technically incorrect. Like that is embarrasingly smarmy.
Well I do agree that Connor McDavid could be moved this summer and they better get everything they need from a roster stand point to contend for a Stanley cup for a long time and enough first round picks to finish off the decade.
I apologize if I offended you. That was not my intent. Rather, in my post I was commenting more generally that the form of the term doesn’t matter. However we refer to the trade proposal, we are dealing with hypotheticals in our discussions. I intentionally used terms that I know are pet peeves for many folks, but that convey the speaker’s intended meaning. Among other things, language is a living, dynamic, spoken phenomenon. We are all involved in creating the conventions, and we do not have to conform to any outside, institutional formal dictates. I was trying for a little humour, and I regret any hard feelings I might have provoked.
How would you propose the they “do it”?
They would need to clear almost $6 million in cap space to pull it off.
I don’t doubt it would be a positive for the future of the Oilers but Utah would be limiting theirs.
Giving up their 3 best prospects who are all on ELC’s for two expensive players in their 30’s would be a firing offence.
Utah gets the biggest star in gane at a crazy discount.
I think you are undervaluing mcdavid “because he’s an oiler” as far as league goes in a way that is below level of trying to genuinely discuss things.
I mean if that wouldn’t be enough value for peak season petersson if edmonton was on other end of proposal…so by all means put sone effort in:
What do you think value difference is beteen 2 years on this insane contract vs 1 year with gun to managements head, nightmare circus team distraction, genuine chances of contending in edmonton in this window vs the holocaust at the end if they walk him…etc etc.
McDavid’s crazy discount was for Edmonton’s benefit. He’s still the best player around and will be paid as such when his crazy discount is done.
No, I’m discounting McDavid because he’s about to enter his 30s and will be needing a massive contract extension.
No better way to sewer a rising team than to trade away all your young assets before they blossom.
See the LAK for reference.
I shouldn’t be amazed but your poetic license is just disturbingly vacant of sense here.
If utah could guarantee that mcdavid would 100% be willing to sign a “massive contract extension” on top of immediate benefits his value is at that cap hit for the following 2 seasons:
The hypothetical value returned would surely be even higher.
.
Mcdavid isn’t going to “sewer” any franchise he signs that long term extension with.
Again call placed here to actually constructively add to comversation please:
What do you think the value in trade assets might be respectfully reflective of his value if dealth this offseason compared to in the final season of this contract or do you think oilers are in a position where they have the type of team in place and are capable of staying super competitive to justify running out his contract and trying to sign him again?
Like you always over value any non edmonton prospects (see LAK foe reference)
2 years of guy who just scored 140 points @ 12.5 mil whose skating speed insanely is still getting even faster in age defying manner…clearly worth a hell of a lot more than a young regular NHL roster player with upside, a top.prospect and a 1st round pick.
Addimg nurse in kind of limited where might be decent fit and has right kimd if LHD man coming back to better balance edmontons core lomg term (who honestly does still have value like the guy is a physical specimen who will be still fast strong and barely ever missing a game very likely until contract ends)
Also,
Utah is not exactly the youngest roster and have pretty stacked system. I’d argue there is some value to realky being competitive and potentially resigning him.
Like the value of 2 years with a chance a team can actually resign him is more than nothing. Substantially so in most of the leagues eyes surely.
Utah has a plethora of young talent sprinkled with a few veterans for support while they develop.
Cooley, Guenther, Hayton, Peterka, But, Simashev and their prime prospects are the core of the team’s future.
Moving a raft of them out for one player and taking on a vastly overpaid declining D in his 30’s would be a disaster.
Moving a raft of them for one best individual player in game and a moderately overpaid defensemen whose numbers actually aren’t as bad as a lot of narratives might like to pretend, just not ideal usage given presnt team dynamics and his usage…who is rare breed type thoroughbred physically that aging curves aren’t likely going to impact decline even close to average level would be something.
*fixed that for you
Does McDavid outperform 3 blue chip prospects for the next decade?
Nurse is already dealing while Utah has several young blue liners who promise o be better than Nurse in short order.
If you feel so attached to McDavid and Nurse, why on earth do you want to trade them?
Still waiting on some semblance of “what value do you think he has with 2 seasons at insane cap vs final season? Do you agree it is pretty significant difference? If he wasn’t playing for edmonton or better yet edmonton and utah rosters were swapped -> what proposterous price do you think you would suggest edmonton would have to pay for “greatest player ever because he’s not an oiler”?
*Note: keep in mind all the names i included now appear like near certsin draft busts to you*
Like seriously how low a value can you honestly place the player who surely alone has highest direct responsibility for games won over replacement level.
A dirty gym sock, late 1sr rounder and a middle six forward or 3-5 defenseman of the journeyman variety maybe a second tier level tweener prospect?
Detach Nurse from your proposal and things might change but Utah is not a great target.
Paying a Columbus premium to keep someone doesn’t set the market price.
Yeah, but it sets the low crazy high.
What about oilers management gives you confidence they are well above clearing that?
There is an extreme scarcity of 2nd line centres.
Colorado has 3 passable ones.
Im tired of the pundits today.
“Knoblauch took the Oilers to two finals” – this implies success is heavily weighted on the coach.
This year “the players didn’t perform” – this implies success is heavily weighted on players.
Which is true fellas? You can’t have it both ways.
Maybe “Mattias Janmark took them to two finals”
Exactly. Who took them to two finals is Connor Leon and Evan, full stop. Any decent coach would have as well. Playoff bottom goalie stats both finals runs. A lot of attribution errors out there
Agreed. Connor / Leon / Evan dragged the team to the finals twice.
I think the current coach was “fine”, so not bad enough to undercut Connor / Leon / Evan, but not good enough to help them get over the hump.
We need a coach good enough to help get them over the hump. Quenneville would have been nearly ideal last year (but I also now understand that the timing just didn’t work out).
Is Cassidy the coach who can do it? Don’t know (and don’t know if he’ll pick LA or Toronto instead).
I think the Oilers still retain the pole position. There is no easy path with the Leafs and Kings. Matthews isn’t what he was and seems on the way out, LA lacks top talent. Even if Connor goes the Oilers still have Leon and Evan
Agreed. Not saying KK didn’t do some good things, but it seems like he got the team as far as 97/29/2 could take them. When matched against coaches that could come up with strategies to counter, he did not have a real answer, other than go nuclear.
In the 2025 playoffs, the Oilers were 25-14 goals with McDavid/Drai off the ice.
The Oilers were more than the superstars and I’m sure coaching was part of that.
I don’t have time but in the past I’ve gone through each series and commented. They were still issues with at least some players, and overall. But that was better for sure
Gregor talked to a player he said off that team and the player said the reason was they were given a chance to help, not that he thought they were better players necessarily
They just talk, talk, talk….and don’t worry about intellectual honesty or internal consistency
You can’t have it both ways, you need to have it all ways. 2024 was the year.
Year 1: PK and McDrai took them to the finals. Knob also had insane skill/luck in putting the right guy in at the right time to make a difference (Perry, Holloway, Broberg etc.)
year 2: PP and bottom 6 took us to the finals
So you are saying everything and everybody except the coach?
They’ll have Janmark back next season all fixed up and ready to go in his contract year.
Watch out.
With Berube out in Toronto, I wonder if Vegas will try and steer Cassidy out of the Western Conference.
Cassidy is from Ottawa.
I don’t see how VGK has any say in where Cassidy plays.
Vegas controls who he can talk to.
Do you really think they care? It seems their focus for the time being is their second round matchup against Anahiem, that is the hold up. They aren’t into multi tasking.
Not really, they can play this little game for now but, in the end, Cassidy will be made available to all teams. There is all but zero chance that Vegas will be permitted (legally or otherwise) to pick and choose which of the 31 teams he can speak to. Lets be practical here.
He is still under contact.
That is a fact and that doesn’t change my statement – there is no doubt that Cassidy will be made available to all teams that want to talk to him.
Friedman said that, as of late last night, neither the Oilers nor Kings have been given permission to speak with Cassidy.
Why aren’t more people angry at Vegas. Always the pricks.
They replace their guy to get the bump and it works! Regardless of his feelings or the timing. Now they continue to try and influence his future with this mucking around. Unless they intend to reinstate him as he is under contract.
Shutting down the other teams, and making sure they are embarrassed to the point of having to fire the coach, perhaps when they were uncertain, is pure glee for Vegas. Screw Vegas.
If the Oilers did this Gary would have run down to mission control in his PJ’s and re-written the rules in pencil and faxed it to everybody
We both know, there’s always a prick in the room. Always
Often more than one.
So true, I just ID them and then glare at them, there’s no making a prick happy
I think most of the hockey world, outside the toxic portion of the Oilers fan base, is indeed wondering what Vegas is doing here and we all know it won’t last long and Cassidy will be made available in short order.
ON is reporting that LA has already interviewed Cassidy. Friedman said he’s heard from someone of the same, although the report has not been confirmed.
Friedman said on Oilers Now late afternoon yesterday he believes that to be the case but, this morning, on his new 32 Thoughts Pod he walked that back and same LA had not been granted permission.
It seems that a reporter, reported what another reporter had reported … that reporter was apparently mistaken. Knowledgeable, factual sources should always be the ultimate reporter, when its a rumour it SHOULD be reported as such.
Wasn’t it reported – per Jon Rosen – that LA has already interviewed Cassidy?
Holland probably had him over for dinner and a movie.
Being reported by Elliotte Friedman this morning (32 Thoughts) that LA had not been granted permission, as of late last night.
I trust Friedman.
Maple Leafs also in the hunt
Here’s a scoop Maple Leafs are asking the Oilers for permission to talk with Knoblauch.
Cassidy hit the paydirt when Vegas fired him. Now he’s the ‘one’ hot hire out there with multiple options. If he wants to max out $ he will end up in Toronto, if he wants to win he will end up here. Toronto is a mess, and he might paper them over so they are in the playoff hunt and the Kings are trending down.
He did say he wouldn’t mind coaching in Canada and winning a cup.
Is it possible he might stay with VGK in a front office role? Perhaps VGK offered that and are waiting to hear back….