Leon Draisaitl has signed an eight-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers, the organization confirming AAV at $8.5 million. That’s about $250,000 a year more than I’d estimated, expect a major reaction over the price.
Draisaitl was drafted just three summers ago and a lot has happened since then. Edmonton finally got their big center after decades of looking (Mark Messier left in 1991) and the big man’s rise from prospect to top offensive player has been a rocket going straight up. What’s more, since the 2015 orientation camp (meeting point for Leon, Darnell Nurse and newcomer Connor McDavid) these young men seem to have bonded and the chemistry has been outstanding.
LEON DRAISAITL 2016-17
- 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 51 NHL)
- 5×4 points per 60: 6.67 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 10 NHL)
- Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
- Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 0.5
- DFF Elite 5×5 %: 52.70
- DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 4.8
- Shots on goal/percentage: 172 shots/16.9%
- Boxcars: 82, 29-48-77 (No. 8 NHL)
- (All numbers via Puck IQ, Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
The numbers here shine like a diamond, but the price didn’t stop going up after the regular season. Draisaitl’s enormous playoff performance is a major reason that the annual cost landed at $8.5 million. We don’t know that Leon can push the river by himself, but we’re about to find out.
PROJECTED ROSTER AND CAP, 2017-18
Well, we know where the cap room was going! In truth there is still lots of room, as the odds of the entire roster hitting all bonuses is very low. I would estimate Peter Chiarelli has close to $4.5 million in cap leeway, doubt he feels the same freedom (but we’ll see).
Now, about those lines….
Of course the GM and coach speak about acquisitions, visions for the team moving forward as well as for individual players. Of course, the GM has the last word on who is on the roster and who is sent down (obviously in consultation with the coach).
With that said, as far as game to game and in-game deployment of players, that must be the coach, 100%.
I’m sure both Coach Todd and GM Chiarelli are on the same page with the long-term view of Leon as a center, however, if the coach believes that putting Leon at wing at any point (and for any length of time), this year, next year, the year after, gives him the best chance to win hockey games, that is where Leon will play.
PC sees Strome as a center, he’s been express on that. If McLellan wants to run McDavid, Leon and Nuge at C and Strome on RW, he will absolutely do so.
Absolutely thrilled Drai has signed for 8 years.
Contract? Overpay? consider these notions:
Track record?
– 1st year in NHL .. played a lot with Yak, who wasn’t even qualified by St. Louis this year
– 1st year, sent down to junior .. Wins MVP of WHL playoffs and MVP of Memorial Cup
– 2nd year .. called up from AHL and finds instant chemistry with 1st overall pick Hall
– 2nd year .. puts up lots of points with Hall .. & Teddy Purcell .. who doesn’t have a contract for this coming year
– 3rd year .. outperforms 6 million dollar men Lucic and Ebs on the wing with McDavid
– 3rd year .. outperforms RNH and McDavid in FO% (49.0%, 43.8, 43.2)
– 3rd year .. outperforms McDavid in points in playoffs
– 3rd year .. top ten in NHL scoring
Uh yes, we don’t know who Leon will become, but we do know just how good he has been.
I say we should just rejoice that McDavid and Drai want to be here for eight years. I can’t imagine two better players to bet the farm (salary cap) on than these two.
To outperform his contract by a significant margin, Drai needs to play at cup winning Toews/Kopitar levels.
That’s a massive ask and a big risk. I wouldn’t have bet on it but I’m extremely risk adverse. It’s a gamble made by a gambler. A swing for the fences in order to secure the longest championship window possible assuming the player matches the bet.
But it isn’t like, say, the Lucic contract. A signing where we knew that Lucic was going to at best make his 7 million dollar contract only look like a small overpay for the resulting performance instead of a massive one.
I was a bit concerned by the number when I first heard it, but after just 20 minutes of reading comments, it’s not as though this contract is going to hold the Oilers back (there are other contracts to glare and grumble about).
I do feel safe saying this… I bet Drai puts up more points than Toews does over the next 6 years (remainder of Toews’s contract).
(*I ALSO bet McDavid puts up more points than Kane over the same period*)
Cheering like hell for the young man!
“Fucksakes, how much? WAY too much, he’s not worth that. That’s pure crazy.”
-said me upon hearing about any and every pro contract signing in any sport since about 1990.
So I guess I’ll have to live with this one too.
GO Leon!! Fill the net kid.
So for the upcoming season, does Draisatl pay for Connor’s drinks when they go out since Leon is getting his money this year?
The overpay is minimal and was close to expectations anyway. The boys need to stay healthy and earn it now. Advance further into the playoffs especially into the SCF & we’ll all be pretty happy about these contracts. Almost as happy as the players.
Don’t think it’s as bad of contract as people think , he is only gotta get better being only 21..and not just offensively..defence and face offs also will improve and he will become even more dominate..kopitar makes 10 mil a season , vorecek 8.25, Johanson 8.0, Benn 9.5, kuznetzov 7.7..I would argue he is or will be better then all of them..I even think he will have more value then a 30 year old teows (10 million).. within the next few years Matthews, laine, eichel, seguin, couture, kucherov will all be signing deals greater then drai, making the deal even better ..big strong talented centres are not easy to find, you have to pay a premium for them
LT,
You are 100% correct with Drai picking up the $750 K Connor left on the table IMO. I would not even be surprised if Connor spoke to Chia and said pay him the money you saved on me and get er done.
My initial reaction was F**k that is too much but as I kept reading the thread I have become more comfortable with it.
Most of knew during the playoffs and I remember us even posting it here during those games that we were gonna end up paying for Drai’s playoff run.
Well here we are and now we know.
Playoff scoring and especially going up against Getzlaf and coming out looking as good or better in an RFA year … well that makes me feel a lot better about the contract.
If the playoff Drai is what we are getting going forward this will be a fair contract.
The comp to Tarasenko is on point. Very good comparable, Tarasenko out of ELC 10.5% of cap, Draisaitl 11.3%, Wing vs Center, the contract is a good value though we all wish it was a bit less.
Also, Tarasenko is his closest comp, I think thats fair. He got $7.5m, 2 years ago, after putting up 73 pts in 77 games when the cap was at $71.4m.
This is in line, upper level sure, but still a fair contract.
A bridge deal for $6m and then have to pay him $10-$12m in 2 years? That would be a lot of egg on PC’s face.
The Draisiatl contract is a monster but at the same time it’s nice to know we have McDavid/Draisaitl locked up for the next 8 years. I just hope Draisaitl can continue to put up these numbers. Like Lowetide mentioned he isn’t exactly “proven” yet. Still very young. However if he puts up 80+ pts I doubt people will complain.
Maroon – McDavid – Nuge
Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepy
Jokinen – Strome – Puljujarvi
Caguila – Letestu – Kassian
Not a bad line up, not a bad line up at all. Get Nuge to rack up some points and then we could probably send him out for a less expensive option. Or keep him for solid run and have a very strong two-way centre for back up in case of injury.
This is at the top end of the fair value range we predicted based on Tarasenko as a comp plus inflation plus position premium for C vs wing. That predicted 8.25-8.5m per for 8.
The problem here we also called back in February: moving 29 next to 97 was going to be paying the piper: paying for 1RW production in full instead of playing him at 2C and paying for that.
TMc played to win but cost the team money down the line with that choice. I probably would have done the same in his shoes even while sitting here from far away warning about this.
I disagree that the playoffs added 1.5m. I think the ask was always going to be that. What it did do was give PC more confidence that he could deliver on that bet.
I agree that the problem is not paying your elite guys fair value. It’s overpaying complementary players that kills you. Lucic, Russell, next summer a warning about Maroon.
Unless some other moves are made as well this deal makes Chia’s hand weaker if he deals Nuge next summer. The world knows he needs a cheaper 3C. Cue the next Eberle for Strome type value erosion deal. Unless Chia gets really creative but I don’t see how at this time.
The contract is not an accurate reflection of your analysis, rather a condemnation of Chiarelli’s negotiating skills. All his comparables were $1-2M less. The Oilers had the leverage with the RFA status. They did not take advantage of that leverage.
At $8.5M long term, they should have went with a bridge deal.
I stand by the Subban comp. Montreal kicked the problem down the road and then didn’t like the result. When you are dealing with high end talent, go long. The issue with Leon (for me) is that he is not yet proven against elites.
+1
Actually + 8,500,000
Only~$1m is saved on Fayne, so $2.6m off the books next year. But you’re right, it’s Talbot that is the growing concern. Maybe Skinner / Wells becomes Matt Murray 2.0?
Have read all the comments.
I find the general reaction somewhat surprising.
Draisaitl is a very good player and it is reasonable to expect he will get better during the term of this contract.
Why is everybody complaining. We have two of the best centres in the NHL locked up for 8 years of their respective primes.
I certainly hope they can both perform at an elite level playing on separate lines.
What is great is that if the Oilers have to really load up due to a game situation (ala Crosby/Malkin), we know that they have excellent chemistry together.
On such a significant day I cannot understand the Oiler fan tendency to see nothing but black clouds.
Enjoy. Be happy. Celebrate the formation of a great Oiler core.
Jordan,
The crunch is that you have about $14M to pay 10 players, as per CapFriendly https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers
This assumes no trades that affect salary, does not include any performance bonuses but also doesn’t include any jump in the Cap (at a minimum I would expect the NHLPA to press the escalator button the full 5% with no new expansion team coming).
5% of $75M is $3.75M so let’s put the cap at $78.75M and our Cap space to $17.75M.
(This assumes also that Vegas jersey sales, Canadian dollar, and other HRR sources – say an extended Leafs playoff run – don’t change the Cap. I tend to be bullish that we may see marginal increases to the Cap based on all three factors but let’s proceed assuming that we don’t.)
It’s tight but I agree that it could be managed.
Expect Maroon to leave and not resign (I’d expect him to go to his son in St. Louis and have no issue with that – perhaps Chia deals him at the deadline).
Nurse and Benning will need new deals. Let’s say that they average $3M per, that eats up $6M of our cushion and we are down to $11.75M. Personally I think that’s high but with Sekera gone probably shoot the lights out. I can deal with that.
That makes for a very pricy d and will probably prompt a trade but while cap relief will be a benefit, it needn’t force the issue.
If Letestu, Jokinen and Maroon are filled with UFAs at comparable cost that’s another $4.5M. (Not sure we can replace Maroon or Letestu’s value to the team at that price but you try). We are now down to $7.25M.
The RFAs up front, Strome and Caggiula will likely expect a raise but I don’t think they break the bank. Let’s put Strome at $3M and Caggiula at $2M. Down to a $2.25M.
We still haven’t spoken about Pak or LB. Don’t see either getting more than what they are currently taking. Like Gryba, probably looking at the same numbers. Let’s say $1.5M for the pair and you have a cushion of $.75M. It can be managed but you are now tempting the gods as per bonuses. Creative accounting and players back and forth to Bakersfield.
The simply fix is to move the last Austin, Nuge, as he doesn’t have a NMC but if you can make it work without doing so – boy I’d love to see those Unicorns.
Fair enough, you’re on point with the socialist cap, but at the time, Eberle 10% of cap, Draisaitl 11%.
So, in today’s terms, I take Drai at $8.5m over Eberle at $7.5m.
68 points for $8.5 million is equivalent in points per dollar to 100 points for $12.5 million.
I don’t think you are understanding the point. Of course this contract should present good value in comparison to an UFA contract. I would rather have this contract than what Tavares is likely to sign, for example. That is not what is in dispute.
What is in dispute is how much the Oilers are saving by taking the depreciation risk? If Draisatl continues as he has, what kind of contract would he get? Godot, who thinks this deal is fair, thinks it is in the 10-12 million range. I think that is absurd, but even if it isn’t, there should be a price for the non-zero risk of injury and/or depreciation for what Draisatl will be five years from now in his hypothetical UFA years.
With this contract, Draisatl gives up little or no future money if he plays as expected, and takes no risk if he doesn’t.
At the moment, we have no idea if 77pts is his top end, an extreme outlier or what he’ll put up consistently, or indeed him just getting started on something special. All we have is indications on a small sample size.
Three out of the four of the above criteria are not worth $8.5M x 8yrs.
Chiarelli and Liut didn’t seem to think so. They ended up exactly where that analysis said they would.
Subban wasn’t dealt during his bridge and there were numerous documented locker room issues. I’m satisfied that there was enough time between contracts to say that signing a bridge was nothing to do with him being dealt. I mean, you sign him to a bridge, he does really well and gets paid. They proved the on ice product and it worked like it should. If the contract was the problem, then lets look at the one they took back…..
. Ryan Johansen, maybe?
For 18-19
McDavid 12.5
Draisaitl 8.5
Lucic 6
RNH 6
Kassian 1.9
Khaira 0.675
JP 0.925
Sekera 5.5
Klefbom 4.1
Larsson 4.1
Russell 4
Gryba 0.9
Talbot 4.1
Total for these 13 players is 59.2. For ease of calculation lets say JP’s bonus money brings it to $62M.
For more easiness into my calculator, lets say the salary cap jumps up to $80M.
We have $18M left over to sign 10 players
-RFA’s
Strome
Drake
Sleppy
Pak
Nurse
Benning
Broissant
-UFA’s
Maroon
Letestu
Jokinen
Cap hell is coming.
-RNH is a goner for sure and most likely one of Strome/Maroon.
-One of Nurse/Benning could be gone.
-Maybe the Oilers ask Lucic/Sekera/Russell to waive NMC, but I doubt it.
EDIT: Oops, forgot about Pouliot buyout.
Add $1.3M per year till the end of 2020-21
So we would have 16.7M leftover to sign those 10 players/roster spots.
Given their ages on those UFA deals, and the fact that prime years for forwards are now 22-27 not 28-32 like the past, the chances of regression during the term of those UFA deals is material.
This contract will be almost entirely made up of prime years.
I agree – I don’t see a regression to a 50-60 point player.
He has shown he can drive a line in small sample sizes. Doing so in the playoffs against the Ducks is a material achievement.
Whenever I’m mad about the Oilers paying full price or more on a contract, I have to remind myself about a story I once heard Jay Mohr tell about Bill Guerin.
The two were apparently hanging out at a bar once while Guerin was in the midst of a contract negotiation with the Oilers, and Mohr was aware that they were at a bit of an impasse over $800,000.
Mohr asked him why he was playing hard ball over 800K when he liked and was thriving with the team.
A somewhat tipsy Guerin then grabbed him by the collar and yelled, “JJ, you ever been to Edmonton in the winter? That’s an $800,000 winter!”
So… forgive me, but I’m confused.
I’ve been eyeballing the Oilers’ salary structure for a while now, and… I don’t see a salary crunch.
Next year, the Oilers have Fayne’s 3.7M and Korpse’s 1M coming off the books. That money should be able to bridge both Nurse and Benning, which takes care of the Defense for the next few years, if you can get them both done for a combined cap hit of 6 M.
Beyond that, you have 7 complementary forwards and 1 backup goalie to sign with 8M to sign them, or get replacements with. And once again, this presumes the cap is flat, and the NHLPA chooses not to use the escalator (which has never happened – they’ve always used it).
And this is all without trading Nuge.
Anyone who thinks the sky is falling now, or into the future is looking for something to complain about.
The Oilers are in pretty good shape, especially if they can eliminate as many bonuses in contracts as they can, to protect themselves from overages.
Unless you want to freak out about Talbot’s extension in 2019. =O Then go nuts. XD
FTFY
It’s not a great contract, but it’s better overpaying a Draisaitl than a Russell.
The $8.5m is tough to stomach. Ryan Johansen with 1 year left of RFA services got 8×8, so Nashville is paying 8m for 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years.
Draisaitl had RFA years left due to his rookie year. His 77 points this year is 6 higher than Johansen’s career high (Leon was 20, RyJo was 22), but I take Johansen’s season because he played C full time and in Columbus. The Oilers are paying him $8.5m for 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years.
I think Draisaitl’s a fantastic player, and his contract situation due to his rookie year complicated things, but I think they probably should have gotten him for much less. Especially given the gravy time with 97 at ES and on the PP. If he did this while playing C full time, I’d have no problem with it.
I don’t know how you sign the Russell deal if you think Draisaitl is coming in around ~8.5.
Id rather “overpay” a bit for a guy like Draisaitl for the hope of future performance than overpay for past performance ( most UFA players)
The issue I have is that Its too bad we didn’t have more of our young players locked up long term to value contracts ( Klefbom and Larsson) before the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts.
If McDavid and Draisaitl center their own lines and both knock it out of park ( which I’m not betting against) it probably also means that 3 of our RFA’s forwards for next year ( Strome, Drake, Sleppy) and most likely our UFA ( Maroon) have had very good at bats at well and will want to get paid.
Nurse and Benning are also RFA’s.
Just took a look at Woodugy’s twitter….where he posted Drai’s WOWY’s -McDavid….
This is a large bet on Leon.
In one and a half seasons, McDavid has put up over a ppg no matter who is on his wing. He has done this for the most part as #1 centre and I think it’s safe to say, any fan and any coach or GM in the league would gladly have him as their #1, even if he does put up only 90 points at $12.5 million.
Drai has not proven he can centre a line for a whole season. He struggled in his first season and was sent down. When he came back, he was paired with river pushers for the most part.
I’m willing to bet between the 2 players, Drai is likely to have a dip in production. I don’t think that’s an outlandish prediction, either.
A lot of people here seem convinced that $8.5 million for Drai means he is guaranteed to increase his production and will be a steal of a deal. Again, what if Drai can’t put up more than 77 points on his own line?
Are people going to be happy with a #2 centre putting up less than 77 points a season for $8.5 million?
frjohnk,
Draisaitl is getting paid like an elite, elite center.
Tied with Stamkos for 9th highest AAV for all players.
He has to put up elite numbers without McDavid.
Has to.
******************************************************************
x 10000000000000000000000000000000
This officially puts to rest any notion of Drai playing wing.
There was a time when we thought the same of eberle. Draisaitl is a great player, and the socialist cap system hinders him. If it were a free market, he could make 20million and be worth it. Problem is, we are probably buying high, and this may hurt in 3 years.
The comps that you used were all bogus.
What if McDavid doesn’t break 90 points without Draisaitl on his wing?
Draisaitl is getting paid like an elite, elite center.
Tied with Stamkos for 9th highest AAV for all players.
He has to put up elite numbers without McDavid.
Has to.
Definitely an overpay. Chia is not the greatest negotiator.
Love the player, though. Can’t imagine losing him.
My bet… Kevin Lowe.
What if in the next 2 years Drai puts up 50-60 points on his own line without a Hall or McDavid on it?
Can’t say that I know who they are. Don’t care much with all the accurate intel.
A five year deal which consumes all the RFA years and 1 UFA year after the entry level is NOT a bridge deal. A five year contract where the player becomes a UFA at the end is NOT a bridge deal.
A bridge deal is a two or three year deal after the entry level contract which leaves one or two RFA years when it expires.
That would be fantastic.
The writing is on the wall for Nuge whatever the AAV, and we all knew we’d be at the cap next July.
I personally like the idea of many young to-be RFA. Chia is in a sense saying show me that you belong here.
Worst case we lose a player we can’t afford, but all teams at the cap deal with that, and Chia’s track record shows that he can plug in a cheap FA veteran or a kid on an ELC to replace them.
This is the best point. Year 1 of his 2 year bridge he wins a Norris. Bergeron shits himself and cries because he realizes what he did. If he gives PK an 8 year pact prior to the brige, he gets him for what, $6m? At that time (2012/13) that would have been a massive contract. So by signing the bridge the Habs cost themselves ~$3m over the course of 6 seasons of Subban’s prime years. The reason why the NHL is seemingly moving to this model of ELC to big deal is because it’s worth the risk.
So then, group question, what do you prefer?
Draisaitl – 2 years @ $5.5m
Draisaitl – 8 years @ $8.5m
If Drai finishes top 10 in scoring, helps the team to two more successful playoff runs, maybe wins an NHL award, in 2 years his next contract is going to be 8x$10-$12m. PC made the right call on this one, no doubt.
You could still do it. Not signing Maroon or Strome after the season means Nuge could stay, you would need Tyler Benson to step up (or other). I don’t see it happening though.
Speaking of which, now that Draisaitl is settled, can we now shift focus to said signing of Jagr?