David Bowie’s Five Years

by Lowetide

Some actual news yesterday, as the Oilers will invite four goalies and run with three during the unusual playoffs. Olivier Rodrigue is one of those goalies and his inclusion might be a tell about how the organization sees him. One of the reasons might be how he finished the season.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

RODRIGUE RESUME

In the final 11 games (February 1 through March 11), Rodrigue posted a goals against of 1.41 and a save percentage of .947. That’s a small sample but fantastic numbers. It’s too bad his season was cut short but it sounds like the Oilers noticed. As you know, I like to go back to the beginning and review the scouting reports from draft day weekend.

Corey Pronman, The Athletic: Rodrigue is a very calm goalie in between the pipes. He’s very smart, always seems to find a way to square up pucks and tracks pucks quite well. 

Red Line Report: Ranked No. 39, “makes the easy saves, and the acrobatic ones too.”

I think he has a chance to be the starter for the Bakersfield Condors next season.

FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY

It was the best of times. One hour later, there was a rain, but drafting Connor McDavid was a massive moment in Oilers history. Here are his draft day scouting reports. Look for a discouraging word. I dare you.

Craig Button, TSN: Two words; unprecedented speed. Skating speed, hand quickness and mental processing that he executes simultaneously to threaten defenders and create opportunities. He would be the first pick at every draft since Sidney Crosby in 2005, perhaps even in Crosby’s draft year. Source.

Red Line: Dynamic speed and acceleration forces dmen to back off the blue line. Has a top end separation gear that’s a blur.

ISS: An intelligent, creative player that can wait for the play to come to him or create something out of nothing. A natural playmaker that is not afraid to go to the middle of the ice to make plays and makes those around him better. Has elite hockey IQ and knows where to be on the ice at all times.

McKeens: Explodes up the ice in one stride and can blow by a defender before he even has time to pivot .. incredibly balanced and strong on his skates – tough to knock down despite countless attempts by the opposition.

Future Considerations: An offensive threat with tremendous speed, McDavid is lethal in transition and makes opponents step back because of his ability to burn them quickly.

Black Book: Connor possesses electrifying speed and acceleration. He gets his feet moving instantaneously and gets everything out of his stride, allowing him to pull away from good skaters quickly. At least once per game you would think he has a turbo button for his skates. His vision is outstanding and he always seems to know who’s around him and what his best option is. He combines these two skills to create plays for his linemates.

THEN CAME THE REINHART TRADE

Approximately one hour later, Peter Chiarelli made a big trade, sending a first and second round pick to the New York Islanders for Griffin Reinhart. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

The Reinhart add (for me) is another addition to the prospect group, no more, no less. He’s miles better than Colten Teubert, but teams don’t trade No. 4 overall picks who are working out swell so let’s be real about it. I have said, and believe, it was an overpay. If Reinhart ends up being Colten Teubert, please hold it against Peter Chiarelli and Bob Green. If he turns out to be splendid, give them credit. In the meantime, let’s not beat each other up too badly, okay? Thanks.

THE 2015 DRAFT

Here is my summary at the time, pick by pick:

C Connor McDavidThe franchise. Words are all we have until fall, and we used them all up before the draft. I think he might start the season with Hall and Eberle, perhaps Pouliot and another veteran. If you’re an Oilers winger, that RW job on 97’s line is the ultimate. I like Chiarelli’s comments about tempering expectations, we could all adopt that attitude as we get deeper into this year. Connor McDavid is going to have growing pains, we may want to pump the breaks on Calder trophy talk, 80-point projections and calling the new arena ‘The House of McDavid’. Unnecessary pressure from us isn’t going to help. NHLE: 82GP, 23-40-63.

D Caleb Jones. A mobile defender with a reputation for being a very good passer (seemed to be a theme in this year’s draft). Looking at the team stats I doubt he got much power play time (1 assist) so it’ll be interesting to see if the boxcars spike as he moves to the WHL for the coming season. 6.0, 194, can skate well and thinks the game well based on scouting reports (ISS has a nice profile on the young man). Seth’s brother, I like the pick, we need to adjust for TOI and role when looking at the equivalency. NHLE: 82GP, 2-5-7.

D Ethan Bear. Early this season, I made a list of CHL defensemen who were showing up often in conversation about the 2015 draft. Bear impressed me as a guy who clicked off all of the boxes: Good skater, makes pinpoint passes, makes good decisions, calm feet, built like a tank (5.11, 200) and can hit hard. Bear didn’t get a lot of ink during the year but posted good numbers and what little was written about him was positive. I don’t know if the ‘saw him good’ crowd or the math people (or both) recommended him but am pleased to see the Oilers grabbed him at a fantastic number. Cody Nickolet wrote a thorough and insightful item on him here. NHLE: 82GP, 5-9-14.

D John Marino. Kirk Luedeke: Solid, if not spectacular, all-around defenseman. Trains off-ice with Hanifin. Set for Yale in 2016 and could return for senior year at Catholic Memorial, play another USPHL season, or play next for Chicago in the USHL. Source  

G Miroslav Svoboda. Young WillisSvoboda has had two strong seasons at the Czech junior level and his 6’3″ frame gives him good size for the position. He’ll be stepping up to the senior level next year, playing for second division Czech team AZ Havirov. On paper, he’s not a particularly compelling prospect, but he is just a seventh-round pick, he’s big and has shown well in flashes, and what we don’t know from looking at him on paper could probably fill volumesSource

D Ziyat Paigin. Huge Russian (6.06, 209) played in the KHL as a teenager and that has to be respected. He’s a mountain, that’s going to be his calling card should he make the NHL. This is the ultimate boom/bust selection but they took him late and for me Paigin’s presence in the KHL (he played 33 games, 9 minutes a night) gets him here. ISS likes his defensive coverage. NHLE: 82GP, 2-2-4.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, this could be a big day for the NHL and I’m not just talking draft lottery. Steve Lansky from Inside The Truck podcast and BigMouthSports will chat Kevin Lowe, Ken Holland and the entire HHOF class of 2020. Ryan Bartoshyk, commissioner of the AJHL, will update us on the league’s situaton and plans moving forward. Matt Iwanyk pops by to talk draft lottery and we’ll chat a little baseball and footy too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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jp

defmn: Expanded rosters for the playoffs? Just a guess.

You could trade for a non-roster player on another team and then add him to your roster if they didn’t prohibit it.

Yeah, could be. Thanks.

defmn

jp: Yes that’s absolutely true.

Any idea why no trades THIS year though? I’d be curious to know the rationale. I’m having a hard time thinking of a reason why to prohibit non-roster trades… (maybe since there was uncertainty, initially, on which teams would even be involved in the play-in/playoffs?)

Expanded rosters for the playoffs? Just a guess.

You could trade for a non-roster player on another team and then add him to your roster if they didn’t prohibit it.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Normally, yes, I believe, but we are far from normal….

Yes that’s absolutely true.

Any idea why no trades THIS year though? I’d be curious to know the rationale. I’m having a hard time thinking of a reason why to prohibit non-roster trades… (maybe since there was uncertainty, initially, on which teams would even be involved in the play-in/playoffs?)

OriginalPouzar

jp: Thanks, I didn’t realize. They’re normally allowed aren’t they? (as long as roster players aren’t involved)

Normally, yes, I believe, but we are far from normal….

Gerta Rauss

€√¥£€^$:
In case anyone didn’t know, Team E was the actual team drawn for the 1st OV slot.

Seems too good to be true, sorry Taylor, Connor of Erie & Edmonton wins this one!

Edmonton starts with an E

#justkidding

=========
more on the lottery here
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2020/06/27/team-e-wins-the-2020-nhl-draft-lottery-creating-possibility-of-a-toronto-maple-leafs-first-overall-draft-selection/

The San Jose pick won the lottery pick #3 for Ottawa
Detroit was the biggest loser

DevilsLettuce

Darth Tu: Edmonton it is. You can get into far more trouble in Vegas than you can in Edmonton.

Chris Pronger’s love of his life might disagree

rickithebear

2 teams win championships:
LT proved pennants matter!

1 team wins lottery:

1 Will take one of the three:

€√¥£€^$

In case anyone didn’t know, Team E was the actual team drawn for the 1st OV slot.

Seems too good to be true, sorry Taylor, Connor of Erie & Edmonton wins this one!

Ribs

CHAOS!!!

Love it.

godot10

ArmchairGM:
Would you rather…

Draft #1 and get Lafreniere

~ or ~

Draft #30 and get Reichel?

Draft #31 and I won’t particularly care who they pick.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– It’s Toronto and Vegas: Book it: hockey all day, every day two of the biggest markets.

Victoria Oil

leadfarmer: That’s what I don’t like about this whole process.Those teams have a shot at the playoffs when many were pretty much eliminated but if it doesn’t work out they get a good shot at the lottery.
If no further play they need to treat the top 8 teams as playoff teams and the other 16 teams equally

Agreed. For teams 17-24, it’s “heads I win, tails you lose”.

Kinger_Oil.redux

OriginalPouzar:
So each of the 8 teams that lose the play-in have a 12.5% chance of first overall.

– Imagine the Oil losing in 1st round and getting 1st pick: LOL!

Kinger_Oil.redux

LadiesloveSmid:
If Marino signed & Edmonton kept 16 + 33, has to be at least 2nd best draft in oiler history. Might already be, I suppose.

Feel triggered just reading Grifiin Reinhart’s name, I jumped on my couch when Barzal dropped.

– Yeah : Imagine if they got Hamilton instead of Griff (who went for less)

– Despite the fail and panic trade for Griff, where Chia got the shaft from Green et al who wanted to right a wrong, that draft was a top-5 draft in last 10 years

– With those two other picks however, (or getting Hamilton, or Griff being an actual NHL top-4 D), it would have been one of the legendary drafts in the history of hockey

– Pete “wears” the Griff trade, but gets no credit for the team-changing outstanding draft: weird…

https://oilersnation.com/2015/06/27/the-oilers-tried-for-dougie-hamilton-and-it-wasn-t-their-fault-they-missed/

jp

OriginalPouzar: I think they’ve frozen all trades among post-season teams currently.

Thanks, I didn’t realize. They’re normally allowed aren’t they? (as long as roster players aren’t involved)

OriginalPouzar

Starting 4 years back (to allow for development) and the goalies chosen in the first round over the last 7-8 years

Vasilevskiy
Subban
Campbell
PIckard

The following were chosen with the first pick in the 2nd round

Dansk
Koskinan

Scungilli Slushy

Elgin R:
In 40 years the OIlers have only drafted 3 #1 goalies. Moog (#132 – 1980), Fuhr (#8 – 1981) and Dubnyk (#14 – 2004).Can Rodrigue (#62 – 2018) be the 4th?We should know in 3 – 5 years, however projecting goalies is voodoo.As a note, it took Jordan Binnington 7-years to establish himself fulltime in the NHL.Hoping Rodrique makes it, then the Oilers do not have to spend assets (or overpay) to cover the position.Also, wouldn’t it be great to have a French-Canadian #1 goalie taken with the pick that the Habs traded.Just envision him shutting out the Habs at the Bell Center, the press would be all over Bergevin.The Oilers drafted Konovalov (#85 – 2019) so they have a couple of good prospects matriculating.

If Yarolslav Askarov is available when the Oilers pick do they take him or pick a forward?

But everyone says you can’t draft goalies first round. Too hard to read.

Yet, very often the difference makers are drafted there, like other positions.

The key is I think to recognize true ability from best in draft. Every draft year is different, and some cohorts aren’t NHL impact quality. Like Nuge and Yak’s draft years.

But if a team doesn’t have at least an NHL average goalie starter, we all know what that means.

Goalie is the most important position on the team. Even Connor can’t overcome a goalie that can’t consistently make NHL saves, as we have seen.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM:
Would you rather…

Draft #1 and get Lafreniere

~ or ~

Draft #30 and get Reichel?

I’ll take the run to the SCF

Benign Bone

ArmchairGM:
Would you rather…

Draft #1 and get Lafreniere

~ or ~

Draft #30 and get Reichel?

Draft #27 and get Bourque/Mysak

ArmchairGM

N64: Neither. Draft 31st

Oooo, too easy.

N64

ArmchairGM:
Would you rather…

Draft #1 and get Lafreniere

~ or ~

Draft #30 and get Reichel?

Neither. Draft 31st

ArmchairGM

Would you rather…

Draft #1 and get Lafreniere

~ or ~

Draft #30 and get Reichel?

OriginalPouzar

dustrock:
Sorry just for those of us who started drinking too early – placeholder doesn’t hold the #1 spot. Just guaranteed a 2nd lottery for the losing play-in teams that will be done at some future point to determine #1 only and otherwise is by points percentage in regular season?

No – the 8 teams that lose in the play-in will be in a 2nd lottery with equal odd and the winner gets the 1st overall.

OriginalPouzar

Pronman spoke with spoke with outgoing AHL president David Andrews about the league plans for next season. He also spoke with the NCHC and USHL leads as well but I’m focussing on the AHL.

I really really hope they can have a full AHL season – so important.

https://theathletic.com/1890931/2020/06/26/burning-questions-for-next-season-with-heads-of-the-ahl-nchc-and-ushl/

A few high points:

– they are planning on an October start but have models for November, December and January – mostly financial modelling

– owners and leaders are split on if they have to start lock-step with the NHL

– they are already fairly regionalized – would be tough to get further regionalized

– no fans is not viable as league is currently structured as a 31-team league

– they can be viable with some sort of limited capacity of fans but its different for different teams and they need to be in a position to have as many teams operational as possible

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar:
As per McKenzie:

If the 2019-20 Return to Play does not occur for any reason, the teams with the 8th to 15th lowest points percentage at the pause would equal shots (12.5 per cent) at getting the No. 1 overall pick. Keep in mind, though, not all those teams may not own their first-round pick.

It’s my understanding it’s the eight worst point percentages OUTSIDE of those teams that were in playoff positions based on point percentages at the pause. So VAN and CGY would have been in the playoffs, hence they would not be lottery teams.

That’s what I don’t like about this whole process. Those teams have a shot at the playoffs when many were pretty much eliminated but if it doesn’t work out they get a good shot at the lottery.
If no further play they need to treat the top 8 teams as playoff teams and the other 16 teams equally

OriginalPouzar

As per McKenzie:

If the 2019-20 Return to Play does not occur for any reason, the teams with the 8th to 15th lowest points percentage at the pause would equal shots (12.5 per cent) at getting the No. 1 overall pick. Keep in mind, though, not all those teams may not own their first-round pick.

It’s my understanding it’s the eight worst point percentages OUTSIDE of those teams that were in playoff positions based on point percentages at the pause. So VAN and CGY would have been in the playoffs, hence they would not be lottery teams.

dustrock

Sorry just for those of us who started drinking too early – placeholder doesn’t hold the #1 spot. Just guaranteed a 2nd lottery for the losing play-in teams that will be done at some future point to determine #1 only and otherwise is by points percentage in regular season?

OriginalPouzar

jp: I thought teams in the playoffs (and play in) could make trades that don’t involve their roster players. I could be mistaken.

I think they’ve frozen all trades among post-season teams currently.

OriginalPouzar

gogliano:
I’d trade the Oilers first round pick.Auction it to teams dreaming big.Then beat Chicago.

Trades not permitted as this point among post-season teams.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: I’m calling it right now the number 1 overall pick will go to the Blackhawks.

I’d prefer an Eastern team but I’ll take that – Oilers move on.

jp

Harpers Hair:
Not possible.
Only the teams out of the play in can make trades.

I thought teams in the playoffs (and play in) could make trades that don’t involve their roster players. I could be mistaken.

jp

OriginalPouzar: He could also very well be in the ECHL – lots of NHL starters started their pro careers in the ECHL.

Would be great if he started his rookie pro career as a solid AHL starting tender but I would think that’s more the exception.

Yes absolutely. The expected scenario, and the one best for the Oilers, is that Skinner takes a step forward and is a good AHL starter. Wells holds the backup job. Rodrigue doesn’t get a chance at the AHL and has a great ECHL year.

But Skinner wasn’t very good this year and if he doesn’t progress (and a vet isn’t signed) then it wouldn’t be surprising for Rodrigue to come in and win the Bakersfield starters job.

Harpers Hair

gogliano:
I’d trade the Oilers first round pick.Auction it to teams dreaming big.Then beat Chicago.

Not possible.
Only the teams out of the play in can make trades.

gogliano

I’d trade the Oilers first round pick. Auction it to teams dreaming big. Then beat Chicago.

Gerta Rauss

Elliot Friedman saying that’s he has heard the cap will be $81.5 next year, $81.5 the year after that, and possibly $82.5 in year 3

*edit-I may have heard that wrong, his beard is really distracting

leadfarmer

Well I think we’ve found that 3rd line center

bsmart

Wow this was interesting, I thought 1 of the 3 would be in play to the next lottery round but I never expected it to be the first overall pick and the best player in the draft!!

Reja

Who’s the girl doing the talking she looks like a nice Saskatchewan farm girl.

Reja

Gerta Rauss:
omg omg omg….the place holder wins the lotto

omg

I’m calling it right now the number 1 overall pick will go to the Blackhawks.

Harpers Hair

Carey Price just pulled a groin.

OriginalPouzar

So each of the 8 teams that lose the play-in have a 12.5% chance of first overall.

Reja

I knew it the fix is in.

godot10

Taylor Hall accomplishes the 2nd task out of 4. The guy is money.

OriginalPouzar

1st overall goes to a PLACEHOLDER.

Kings pick 2nd.

Gerta Rauss

omg omg omg….the place holder wins the lotto

omg

OriginalPouzar

Senators drop to 3rd – 3rd and 5th.

Gerta Rauss

omg

Gerta Rauss

Bruce McCurdy:
One pick to the play-in losers.Enough to add something ntrigue down the line, even if it turns out to be #3.

I think the league will be please with this result…it’ll be crazy if it’s #1

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Yeah, that will work out great.

What will work out great?

From recent accounts, families will not be part of the quarantine bubble at the beginning – not for the play-in round and, likely not for the 1st real playoff round either.

Where the players are to start should be somewhat meaningless for the families.

Bruce McCurdy

One pick to the play-in losers. Enough to add some intrigue down the line, even if it turns out to be #3.