As predicted yesterday, the big news started breaking yesterday. The Edmonton Oilers website listed goaltender Jan Spaner on the roster, meaning the Czech teenager will be in Penticton with the rookies. I had Spaner No. 79 but he passed through the draft. There were other stories yesterday, some rumours too. Here we go!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How will Oilers deploy free-agent addition Ryan Murray?
- Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ most likely recalls from AHL Bakersfield in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Is the Edmonton Oilers’ 2022-23 lineup balanced?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
- Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
BREAKING (WELL, MAKING A DENT!) NEWS
- Rick Dhaliwal has the Oilers as one of several (maybe five) teams interested in agitating winger Jake Virtanen. Per 82 games in his NHL career, he has scored 14-12-26. He is 6.01, 226 and 26 years old. He has speed and some skill, plays a belligerent style. His availability is unusual for a high pick still close to his prime, I don’t see the Oilers having any barriers in signing him based on their own past.
- Daryl Katz passed the Monopoly man on the list of richie rich rich via Forbes. Fans spent most of the last 50 years worrying about the owner’s pockets, that isn’t the case at this time.
- I had Spaner in the third round, he didn’t get selected. I did not have Samuel Jonsson ranked, Edmonton took him No. 158 overall. He would have been the priority too, the team’s scouts having waited for 126 selections to get a second chance at the board. Projecting goalies is possibly the most difficult task in the scouting game, we’ll know in five years if Spaner>Jonsson.
- Matt Porter of the Boston Globe has Patrick Kane likely going to an Atlanta Division team later in the year in trade.
- I don’t know where it came from, but the comments section picked up a “JP and Tyson Barrie for John Klingberg” trade last night, and it’s wild in the streets as we speak. Klingberg is faster than any of the current RHD and he can play 20+ minutes, but I’m not sure the match is grand based on the five-on-five outscoring numbers. Then again, the Stars haven’t been fab for a couple of seasons. There was a time when Klingberg was regarded as one of the truly great young blue in the league, maybe the Oilers believe they can get him back to that level. I wouldn’t do this deal. Klinberg is UFA at the end of this season. I do like the target if he can return to 2018-19 levels.
- I see Jesse Puljujarvi’s name popping up in the trade rumours again, he has been mentioned more than the others not named Warren Foegele (Kailer Yamamoto, Tyson Barrie) but for me JP has a good chance to stay for one main reason. The value other general managers place on him isn’t high enough and that may save the Oilers from something foolish.
- I think we’re basically at “trade Foegele or run shorthanded” at this point and the money is so tight for a 20-man team it borders on farce.
This is a 23-man roster, Foegele traded for a pick, Holloway started the year on the roster (McKegg and Malone recalled after official roster accepted) and no one is lost to waivers. I’d probably have Hyman with Leon and KY with McDavid, but expect Puljujarvi to play most of the season in the top-six forwards.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A short week, we’re piling five days into four and it’s pretty wild. TSN1260, 10-2, Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will pop in for a discussion of the cap, Ryan Murray and more. We’ll talk MLB, NFL and CFL too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Each of Skinner, Holloway, Broberg – honourable mentions for Calder by Wheeler (outside his top 20 ranked).
Jesse being Jesse.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1567599416969949185
One post with some aggregate thoughts on today’s comments and some other random thoughts:
1) I understand the stats provided vis-a-vis Barrie vs. Subban and I’m one that has opined that, if Barrie was moved for cap space, I think that Subban could be a find 3RD back-fill if his hips (and body in general) are healthy, etc. At the same time, notwithstanding the stats provided, while they are informative and I can’t discount them completely, I still don’t imagine that isn’t a material downgrade on-ice.
2) If Jesse is the one moved for cap space, well, it is what it is, however, if the premise is replacing Jesse with Rodrigues to make the team better (salary aside, which may not be much different in the end, $1MM), that’s misguided. I’d love to add Rodrigues to the current 3 NHL RWs but he is NOT better than Puljuarvi and he his stats were just as front-loaded this past season (and per 82 games, no better).
3) Agree its odd there has been no information on Kane’s 2nd grievance hearing. Then again, remember there was no real advanced notice of the 1st hearing – he was all of a sudden off to NYC and missed a practice. I don’t think we care at all vis-a-vis the Oilers, Kane isn’t going to get “taken away from us” but there very well could be a cap hit for the Sharks in the settlement/award so its odd its not done well in advance of the season.).
4) I’ve been one that has been very guarded on Nimeo being a better option than Samourkov (or others) – I acknowledge his hitting is a factor but postulated about leaking scoring chances and goals. Bruce M. did a great piece that dropped overnight. Niemo’s possession and goal numbers were poor and in very sheltered minutes – 16% TOI vs elite and under 7% offensive zone starts and under 7% defensive zone starts leading to apx 75% on the fly starts – extreme sheltering. He’ll play some games but there is continuing development that needs to happen.
5) Justin Bailey? Meh – I don’t see an NHL contract for him out of this – not an NHL hockey player. He plays right wing, that’s about it.
OP, a couple of thoughts:
The Oilers are said to be moving to utilizing more analytics in their decision making with the promotion of Brad Holland. When I think of analytics in procurement, I think of identifying players who are undervalued. If the thought of other teams utilizing analytics to identify Puljujarvi as a player of interest, Is he not right under our nose? If the Oilers were wanting to trade him, after the 20 game mark last season would have been ideal as I’m sure his value was high. That being said, we did not trade him because he was playing the way we needed him to. Big Jess seems to start the season well as his confidence seems to be higher at the start. In my opinion, now is not the time to trade him, let’s get his value up and if they are dead set on trading him, then not be tempted into keeping him because he is playing well.
I would like to see Samorukov get a real chance. Understanding that defensive depth is crucial for contending teams, I hope Murray doesn’t put us at risk of losing this player. I believe we know what Murray is as a defensemen. It’s always nice to be surprised. What is Samo? A couple of shifts against elites in St. Louis should not define this prospect in my opinion.(coaches had skin in the game here too) Samorukov reminds me of Darius Kasparaitis with his ability to step up and make big open ice hits. Would be nice to see him get the same bump Niemo got playing 11-7 to open some opportunity to get some experience.
This is not a rebuttal to the above, just looking for your insight.
I don’t disagree at all on Jesse. For me, trading him for a return of a 2nd round pick (or less) in the name of cap space or in the name of making room for someone like Rodrigues makes zero sense. Yes, something has to give vis-a-vis the cap space but I just don’t think Jesse is the reasonable option.
You are preaching to the choir on Samorukov – I’ve been one of his biggest supporters over the last 3-4 years.
Holland did say earlier this off-season that its time and at the exit meetings, when he and Jay were talking to the players individually about their off-seasons, it was time for them to step up and push – he won’t have any hesitation to send a player to the AHL or put them on waivers, etc.
I’m sure the words are a bit harsher than reality on “waivers” but, if Sammy is outplayed at camp……
Justin Bailey coming on a PTO, has anyone seen this somewhere other than Cap Friendly?
I think of him as a right shot Perlini (good size, speed and shot) without NHL results. He is not physical, but it will be interesting how he does.
He was a teammate of Nurse during their last season in Junior hockey.
He may not make it, unless injuries are a factor. This will likely mean 240 lb Virtanen will not be at the Oilers camp.
20 players from the 2014-2015 Soo Greyhounds team were drafted into the N.H.L. That’s one amazing team.
I’ve finally caught up with the last few weeks worth of blogs. I’d like to add my thanks to our gracious host for supplying this space and putting up with our, uh, “foibles”. I’m extremely happy that the comments section will live on. I tend to dive in and out in terms of making comments, but I always give it a read each day as there’s always some informative chat going on.
Thank you again LT. You’ve built something solid here – for my part I’ll try to be the best denizen I can and not get drawn into the old proverbial p*****g matches when it’s clear trollery going on.
G’Oilers.
I’ve mostly spent the summer away from here, in part because of summer, in part because I had began to find the comment section intolerable. Simply scrolling past was no longer cutting it, and found myself not even checking the blog anymore for the first time in a decade. I hope it returns to a higher degree of insight and civility, glad we’re up and running, both here and in training camp.
Go Oilers!
Coyotes announce their season ticket revenue is up 50% in their new home at ASU.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/34544448/arizona-coyotes-expect-sell-every-home-game-asu-say-season-ticket-revenue-50-glendale-arena
Wow! 5000 capacity it’ll be like a collage Basketball atmosphere.
If they dont have a $10/ticket college section similar to the Elks (or Eskimos when I went) – Im going to be pissed.
They will but prices will be somewhat higher.
Its in the article.
Your not a real Edmontonian sports fan unless you were part of the Knothole Gang at Clarke Stadium. OP before you get your Knickers in a knot I’m just kidding. Clarke Stadium opened in 1938 at a cost of $7000.
Are all returning Oilers healthy? Or is there an unknown injury out there with a player we don’t know about heading to LTIR?
I haven’t heard anything. Hoping for good health for all.
Has anybody heard when EKane’s arbitration hearing is scheduled for?
The last I’d heard was: “there is no arbitrator available in July”.
It’s now September 7th, so who knows.
Yeah, that is the last I heard of it as well. Seems to have disappeared from the msm.
Why would they trade for Klingberg just a month after he signed with Anaheim? If they were interested they’d approach him in free agency no? And why would the Ducks suddenly trade him, has a team ever signed a free agent and then traded him away before the season even started?
Klingberg will no doubt be traded on deadline day unless Anaheim surprises everyone and challenge for a playoff spot. But I don’t think he goes anywhere before that.
Yeah, nothing about that rumour makes the remotest bit of sense.
Besides, Klingberg isn’t an upgrade on Barrie but has a much higher cap hit, so why on earth would Edmonton even consider it?
Why is it far fetched when it was reported they were trying to work a sign and trade with Montreal for Klingberg?
If Anaheim wants JP until he’s 30 and signing Kling for a one year deal does that for them.
It’s not a zero chance currently.
There are really only about 5 teams that are able to take on cap hits of any size and Anaheim is one of them.
I have no more idea of what Holland is up to than anybody else but it doesn’t seem far fetched to me that he is talking to all of those teams and that a number of scenarios are being discussed.
The original rumour was that KH was looking at pulling a fast one on the league, agreeing to the $7m terms, and then having Montreal (I believe), sign Klingberg to the deal and then trading him to the Oilers at 50% retained for whatever combination of young players and/or picks. Bettman’s head would have exploded.
Is it really a fast one if the rules allow it and you pay for the cap space.
Well Edmonton did try to get him in free agency. And clearly he isn’t in the ducks long term plans so maybe edmonton is sniffing around.
Montreal Gazette
@mtlgazette
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2m
Canadiens put Price on long-term injured reserve, gain cap relief https://zpr.io/7Q8i4XeJ72JR
1) I could see Virtanen been given a shot and, sure, I guess, why not (I take off ice issues out of the equation when nothing if proven/factual)? Given his on-ice history, I have reservations regarding his ability to regain his scoring at the NHL level and/or provide the consistent level of truculence he would be signed for. From accounts, his main on-ice issues at the NHL level were often due to “not being in shape” and then an inconsistency in the truculence area. Well, given his numbers his last NHL season and his meh numbers in the KHL, is there any indication of growth in these areas? Not to mention, a poor 2-way player with noted poor on ice instincts in that regard. Essentially, when he’s not “on his game”, he’s likely hurting the team with bad 2-way play, etc.
2) JP and Barrie for Klingberg – well, sure, Klingberg certainly brings a dynamic to the right side but the roster’s current hole is at RW and this trades out a RW and swaps RD…… i’m not sure it “makes sense” and, really, is Klingberg needed? The future top 4 of this team on the right side is Bouch and Ceci, no?
3) I don’t know what Holland is going to do for cap compliance but, for me, if there is a trade out, which there very likely has to be, while I want Foegele on the team and think he’s going to have a solid second season on the team, Foegele out over Jesse simply makes the most sense given (a) LW vs. RW depth on the team, (b) age, upside and, really, current value and (c) real 3LW replacement options in-house, right now (Janmark and Holloway).
4) I’m thinking Foegle for Bishop and a 4th.
————–
On a seperate note, Al mentioned the other day that 18 year old (Just this past May) Oilers’ prospect Nikita Yevseyev is playing games and in the KHL.
I believe he’s playing on that weird rule that allows KHL teams to add 18/19 year old players to their lineup as extra players (certain rules and thresholds apply). This would be similar to Beryzokin last year who played a ton of games in the KHL and split between the KHL and the MHL (the junior league).
The issue is these “extra teenagers” generally see like 3 min of ice a game, often in garbage time. That was Beryzokin last season.
Well, Yevseyev played his second KHL game yesterday and his ice time was upped from the standard 3 minutes to 7:45 in game 2, in a 5-1 win.
That is a good arrow for me.
I credit Matthew P. (https://twitter.com/mathewjdp) with noting his second game and then researching the increased ice after discussion.
Mentioning Beryzokin – he’s full time VHL right now (the AHL equivalent in Russia) and is 1G/2P in 2 games. He scored the 2nd goal in a 4-2 win yesterday. Will look in to his ice time but it seems he’s on the top line.
The KHL young players rule is very interesting. It incentivizes teams to utilize junior aged players. If the junior aged player plays 30% of the games for the KHL team and gets selected for the U20 national team, said team can replace the player with another player any age.
In Maxim’s case, I wonder if the experience of being around top professionals everyday, practices and limited game time was advantageous considering when he was in the MHL he put up pretty decent points. 22gp/13/22/35.
Is it possible to tie this to the Oilers with Stewart Skinner? In the bubble, he was not playing at all but was around the team everyday as a third goaltender. It would have allowed him to see how a top professional prepares and works on their game. Face better quality of competition in practices. I believe that Skinners game improved after this experience.
Did this also help Evan Bouchard in the same way in the bubble?
I have no doubt that being around the team during a playoff series was indeed beneficial. I don’t think the comparison is direct though as, for the playoff bubble, if these guys weren’t with the team, it was pure off-season (August). With these kids in the KHL, while the benefit of being with the team, etc. is likely something, the other option is playing real and substantial minutes and developing in a lesser league.
When speaking of Bouch and the bubble, are you talking about the 56 game season when he could have been in the AHL? I think he was right where he should have been. I do think the coaches could have worked him in to some more games but the AHL wasn’t an option due to the quarantine rules upon recall (would have been 2-3 week until the recall was ready).
Stutzle basically gets the Draisaitl contract $8.35M x 8.
Ottawa has their core signed for anywhere between 3 and 9 years.
Tkachuk at $8.25
Stutzle at $8.35
Norris at $7.95
Chabot at $8.0
Batherson at $4.95
Giroux at $6.5
If they get DeBrincat signed for say $9M, that means they’ll have $53M committed annually to seven players. Giroux’s contract will be expiring right when they need to pay Jake Sanderson.
I’d say Pierre Dorion has managed a re-build process as expertly as any GM has in the modern era.
I would much rather have Stutzle or Raymond over Byfield. I don’t get all the hype for him.
Byfield just turned 19 and was the youngest player in that draft.
Lots of runway to go.
I saw him in Ontario and there were some games when he was truly impactful. Needs to add consistency and develop man strength (yikes!) but he’s going to be very good imo.
His season was derailed by a broken ankle.
He’ll be fine.
Byfield was eligible to play in the World Juniors this past season. There are already lots of good NHL players from that draft, and there are going to be a ton more but, give or take a Holloway, Byfield may end up the best. He’s coming!
Doesn’t have the hands for the fast moving N.H.L can’t see him ever scoring over 23 in a season.
Listening to Stauffer regarding a P.Kane acquisition and he’s talking about 5 assets, including JP and the 2023 1st. Woof. No thank you.
My bottom line would be KY, Lavoie, 2024 1st and if Az needs to be used to reduce salary cap, Niemelainen + 2023 3rd.
I hold on to the 2023 1st & 2nd picks for dear life.
If Stauffer is suggesting 5 assets (a surprisingly high number) maybe that indicates some real intel is going into it (I don’t know whether he framed it as more ‘what I’m hearing’, or ‘what I’m guessing’).
And if you think about it, getting to 5 isn’t that hard.
Foegele or other needs to go for cap purposes regardless of any Kane trade. So maybe Chicago takes him since he’s close to value-neutral and the Oilers would need to move him on regardless.
Then Puljujarvi or Yamamoto, asset of value, and to open the actual cap for Kane ($2.625M with 2x retention).
1st in 2023 (or 2024 as you suggest).
Then 2 other lesser assets. Non-1st round prospects and or picks. I guessed at Samorukov and Savoie the other day, but it could be other prospects or picks depending on what Chicago (and the Oilers) values.
We’ll see.
There is some precedent to a Kane trade. A superstar player a bit past their prime, but still capable of strong performances approaching free agency on a reasonable deal?
Erik Karlsson for Chris Tierney, Rudolfs Balcers, Dylan Demelo, the rights to Josh Norris, a first round pick, a 2nd round pick and two conditional draft picks
Chris Tierney = Jesse Puljujarvi
The year Tierney was traded, he was 24 years old, coming off a 17-23- 40 point campaign. Jesse is currently 24 years old, coming off a 14-22- 36 point season.
Rudolfs Balcers = Savoie/Petrov
Balcers was a 21 year old coming off a strong AHL performance (48 points as a rookie) and a strong 77 points in 66 WHL games the year before. Petrov outperformed him in juniors, and Savoie arguably kept pace with him, but this is the “relatively unknown prospect with good arrows” category.
Dylan Demelo = ????
There really isn’t a comparable on the roster for Demelo as far as I can see. At the time, he was a youngish late round pick just starting to emerge. After two years as a replacement Dman on the sharks, he was their bottom pairing and starting to come along stronger. He was 25 years old at that time. The best comparables on the team are somewhere between Samorukov and Niemelainen/Desharnais. The best comparable in general, at this point, would have been Brandon Davidson a few years ago, but we don’t have one of those.
Josh Norris = Dylan Holloway
Norris was drafted 17th overall, Holloway in the same range. Norris was a little younger, still having one more year of NCAA play to go before joining the AHL. By my eye, he outperformed Holloway in their first year, Holloway beat him his second year, and Norris has him beat on his first AHL year. Big name prospects changing hands.
and then obviously the 1st and 2nd.
the conditional picks were: a 1st round pick if Karlsson played for an Eastern Conference team that season (not fulfilled)
a 2nd round pick if Karlsson re-signed, which he did.
Following this blueprint, that would make 7 total assets for Kane, notwithstanding any potential salaries or payments for that (Karlsson was traded full contract):
Patrick Kane + B-level prospect FOR Puljujarvi, Samorukov, Holloway, Petrov, 1st, 2nd, 2nd (conditional).
That is a LOT to pay for any one player, not to mention our window is just opening up. The Sharks were desperate to keep theirs open a few more years with an aging cast of veterans. This is way too much to give for likely one year of PAtrick Kane, despite how badly I want to see him in Oilers silks.
That is an awful lot for one player. Considerably more than Stauffer is reporting/speculating as the cost for Kane. We’ll see if anything comes of these rumours, but there’s no guarantee it would look like the Karlsson trade (especially if Stauffer is suggesting something quite different).
And FWIW Karlsson was 28 when he was traded to SJ, so still very much in his prime.
That deal just didn’t make any sense they already had Burns for the PP. Why shoot your load on Karlsson who if I remember correctly was coming off a recent nasty injury.
GM’s and agents spitball all the time. At this time of year, before camp has even opened, it would make sense that someone starts out with a very high ask to gauge the market. Doesn’t mean anything now, but something you may circle back to later when things become more serious and any number of factors can impact things.
Yes, it could be that any talks at this point aren’t that serious. I’m not even sure if Stauffer was framing it as stuff he heard, or stuff he’s guessing at since I didn’t listen directly.
Bob loves to name-drop sources when he can (usually Edmonton-related agents) and NEVER hesitates to let the listeners know when he has something concrete “on good authority”. For example, he had almost the exact Dach contract weeks ago (term and AAV) and today was essentially telling the listeners what contracts Rodrigues has been offered.
With the P. Kane stuff, it really seems like his personal speculating on what he thinks it would take. From most accounts (Friedman, Seravelli, etc.), the Hawks aren’t in trade talks as they won’t engage unless/until Kane comes to them, and he hasn’t. I don’t think there is any sort of real information on what it might take.
Earlier was impressed by the today’s concern for the 2022-23 Oilers 4th line.
For years I railed about how a good 4th line using primarily young players for in NHL development while being deployed so as not to bleed too badly.
For this I was roundly berated as 4th lines using young players heard would be a disaster. What is the difference between the 4th line then and now?
Basically I have retired from the debate – but think personally that Woodcroft is coach enough to understand by the end of training camp which players from the 20 odd players he has to choose from can constitute an effective 4th line.
here is the fun part: as Oiler fans debate the 4th line, other fans debate how the hell they plan to stop Draisaitl’s Panzer Corps.
Sure nice to be on this end of it. Finally.
Canadiens sign Kirby Dach 4X $3.625
Senators sign Tim Stutzle to an 8 year X $8.35 million extension
What’s the best site to order N.F.L tickets online??
Try individual team sites.
I saw an old CFL game from the 1950s on Youtube that made the modern game look like old folks playing bowls.
After each and every play both CFL teams and officials would almost run back into starting position it was something to see and made the game go quickly more like Rugby Union.
Sorry I do not know anything about buying NFL tickets, seeing how the place I live has no NFL team etc.
I use Gametime, it’s more for last minute/discount tickets. Prices are good.
Thank you.
The Oilers could play most of the year with 21 players on the club. The extra player would be a defenseman- lots of times under Woody they went with 11 forwards.
You can get any Condor to any NHL team in 24 hours. The extra guys don’t have to hang around the NHL city anymore.
This issue with this is, they are running a short roster (in your example, 21 players) because there is not room under the cap for a 22 player roster. So, if they want to recall a player from the AHL, they don’t have the cap room unless they are moving a player off the NHL roster or placing one on LTIR.
For example, 21 player roster – Foegele blocks a shot and will be out a couple of weeks. He’s on IR but not out long enough for LTIR so there is no cap relief. Can’t re-assign an injured player. No cap space to call anyone up.
That fourth line as you’ve got it is astonishingly bad. The only players on the team making at least ~500k more than they should are Nurse and Foegele. Whereas I realize he’s the keystone for the D-corps, I believe even at 9.25 he’d fetch an attractive return, and would truly leave breathing room for the team. The only problem is we’d probably miss the playoffs unless Connor goes supernova.
Friggin’ Oilers.
Missing the playoffs at this stage seems like a kind of a big problem – even if its the “only” one
Why waste time with mere Darnell Nurse? Trade Draisaitl and receive even more!
Personally, I feel the key to success is the strongest third line possible. Kane/McDavid will outscore the competition regardless of their winger. Draisaitl and Yamamoto might need a bit more help on their wing to keep their head above water.
Nuge and hyman though would eat through the competition on the 3rd line. and give us probably the best third line in hockey. So from there can we come up with a lineup that works like this:
Kane – McDavid – XXX
XXX – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Hyman – Nuge – XXX
XXX – XXX – XXX
Available players: Ryan, Puljujarvi, Janmark, Mckegg, Griffith, Benson, Shore, Malone
There are a lot of combinations to draw from here. You could load up the 4th line with Ryan, Mcleod and Janmark on certain nights when they’re needed. Likewise you could see if Mcleod has continued success with Drai.
Signing Rodrigues, if possible, gives even more options since he would fill in nicely on either the 1st or 3rd line, or push yamamoto to the 3rd line.
Ryan had success with Nuge on the 3rd line, you could try that again.
Puljujarvi has success with 97, so that would work, but he can also help out Leon and make the 3rd line ridiculously better.
The value of depth is that we can string out our team any way we want. 3 games in 4 nights? Load up the bottom of the roster and play everyone 15 minutes a night to keep as fresh as possible.
2 games in a week? Try McDrai with Kane, Nuge- Hyman- Yamamoto, Mcleod – Pulju and Janmark with Ryan and Shore as extras. Thats an unstoppable line with a strong 2nd line and a strong 3rd line that can play about 20-25 minutes each to try to outpower the other team.
Its good to be an Oilers fan today. 🙂
Holloway has to fit in there somewhere. One of the reasons I believe will score 35-40 more Goals this year besides personal is that Woody is a better line matcher than Tippett was.
geez… how could I forget?
And not only Holloway. I don’t know and doubt anyone besides Holloway/Skinner/Broberg could make big impacts as rookies, but its not unheard of for Xavier Borgault, Carter Savoie or others to force the issue. They’re skill players and if Holloway spends the whole year stapled to the big centers, I think 60 points is possible
There will be a dogfight at training camp.
I doubt if anyone knows who is going to emerge this time of the season.
Besides Campbell I’m mostly looking forward to Holloway forcing his way on the team with his physicality and all around game.
Woody understands the difference between effective deployment of available resources.
Tippett was like the faithful old hunting dog that was getting a bad hip. While he was unable to take the team to the level they enjoy now, he at least set the stage which gives him bragging rights when they win the cup sometime in the next 2-3 seasons(at least 70% guaranteed)
Manson as well who I believe is a huge improvement finally gets chance to mold the D in his image.
My admiration for current head coach Woodcroft is currently limitless.
Hands down easily the best coach since Muckler.
Am sure Manson will be able to do his job properly. Woody doesn’t seem like the type who holds grudges. Or is jealous of the success of others.
I miss Muckler and Sather and the wrath of the opposing team Coaches.
It took me awhile to figure out who he was. Jan Spaner goes by Jan Spunar on many sites. He was a top 3 goalie in his 2019-2020 U17 season, the next year he only played 3 games between U17 and U20. Last year his numbers weren’t great when he moved up to U20 fulltime . He’s moving on to the WHL this fall to play for the Portland Winterhawks so we’ll be able to get a better idea of where he stands. Interesting signing.
sorry, interesting invite… I don’t think he’s been signed to anything besides maybe a PTO.
Poster boy is Martin Jones who was invited to Sharks camp at 18 after passing through the draft. He was so impressive at camp they signed him to an ELC, then slid his contract for the next 2 years while he finished out his junior career. Turned out to be an NHL-class goalie and a “free” player for the Sharks. All it cost them was a (future) spot on the 50-man list.
That would be amazing.
Yowzers. That fourth line… And that’s with Foegele sent packing.
It doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in me but I guess if they play within the system and the expected 5-10 minutes a night then maybe it’ll work.
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The more I look at the salary cap and the constraints it places on every team, the more I think the league needs to adopt a Larry Bird Exception rule. Basically one player doesn’t count towards the cap.
Imagine what the league as a whole could do with something like that. Cap hell is a reality for all of the teams out there with the exception of the Arizona type teams but being able to wipe 9-12 million off of the ledger for home grown talent every year and have it used on other players is uber enticing. And I would think it would be that way for both players and management.
That’d be an interesting development. Sign mercenary deals for top free agents at 12M and fill out the rest of the roster as if nothing changed. The strategy around it alone would be enticing to see.
I’m not a big fan of the Exception Rule. Hockey revenue is too local compared to other leagues to allow smaller markets to compete already. Between different tax systems, local advertising opportunities, weather etc. teams like Buffalo, WInnipeg and, yes, Edmonton already start some ways back when trying to compete with LA, NY or Toronto.
You get the exception rule, Connor and Leon retire in x years, and all of a sudden maybe that rule doesn’t look all that good for our team.
I like the fact that the GM position is important. Decision making, rather than deep pockets, makes the league more interesting for me.
I hear you but I like what the NBA has done. It’s only for one player and you had to have drafted him.
Those points you mentioned: taxes, weather, etc… already work against many teams so this could be a tool that could equalize things. It forces a team to draft and develop. This couldn’t be used for example, when NYR signed Panarin or when Edmonton signed Kane.
McD and Drai are going to retire either way. This helps the GM surround them with the best talent available while they are still around.
A guy like Holloway (drafted and developed), for example, shouldn’t get stiffed from the big club because he costs too much at 800k + performance bonuses.
Instead, they have to sign a plug like McKegg. Ugh.
The ‘exception’ rule in the NBA is an interesting idea:
On the Oilers … McDavid could get paid what he deserves … say 20 million/season. But what about Leon … he would want to get paid something close … say 16 million per season. together they would be making 36 million in real dollars, while only counting 16 million on the cap.
In real life they are getting paid 21 million in real dollars but counting 21 million in cap dollars. That 5 million is cap savings, but the owner has to fork out an additional 15 million in real dollars. This helps to separate the out the owners and markets who should have an NHL team (e.g. Katz and the Oilers) from those that should not be (e.g. Meruelo and Coyotes).
I recommend calling it the ‘Wayne Gretzky’ rule for hockey though.
Is there any other sport where the salary cap is as onerous as the NHL’s? I don’t really follow NBA or NFL, but I know MLB’s cap is more of a polite suggestion than a rule. I’d say 85-90% of teams in the NHL are capped out and scrambling to get compliant. I’m not sure other sports have set it up so that every team effectively has an identical payroll.
The one tricky thing about Foegele is that the contract is back end loaded in real cash terms. Now its not crazy, but with a flat cap for this year and next it could be a factor.
LT mentioned a pick to get it done but I wonder if it’ll be the Oilers adding and not the other way around. Pure cap dump.
Re: 23 man roster. Will 900k get it done for McLeod? I thought it would be more in line with the last Yamamoto/Puljujarvi deal of $1,175,000. Maybe $1,075,00?
Then we trade Foegele with picks or for picks so his $2,750,000 comes off.
Now, isn’t it a good practice for the GM to consider the most expensive possible roster in case there are injuries or performance issues to to address in the bottom of the roster? If so, then the roster should allow for Ryan, Holloway, Shore, and one of McKegg, Malone, or Griffith.
Further, if Broberg is on the roster as he should be, then shouldn’t a GM allow for the possible contracts of Koekkoek (worked hard over summer to bounce back) and Samorukov (ditto), who they should try to avoid losing to waivers? After all, Murray and his cheap contact are often injured.
If so, then the roster is $451,833 over cap. If they can get McLeod at $900k great, but that is still $276,833 over cap. I know they can make moves to be compliant on day one, but the GM still has to leave himself room to be able to make daily moves during the season in the interest of injuries and icing the best team available.
Maybe I’m missing the minutia of cap management, but some wiggle room is smart/necessary, no?
That’s why, it seems to me, that trading Barrie is the only option. That’s also why PK Subban seems like a great replacement. Yesterday it surprised me to find out that his underlying numbers (CF%, HD%, XGF%, etc) were better than Barries at 5v5 on a much worse team. He also got more points than Barrie at 5v5 last season. He could be quite a bit cheaper.
Or even trading both Foegele and Barrie, and then signing Subban and one of Milano or Rodrigues. If also still sign Sprong to a deal around the $815k range.
Thoughts?
Trouble is players like Bjorkstrand are going for mid-round draft picks. Who will take on significantly worse players without sweeteners?
Bjorkstrand has 4 years to run at $5.4 million, coming off a -35 season. That’s a hell of a commitment to take on. One school of thought is that CBJ did well not to have to throw in a sweetener.
Bjorkstrand had a .878 Even Strength on-ice SV% last year. Scored well above 2 ES P/60 the previous 3 years.
Would have been a shrewd move to nab him instead of E Kane honestly.
I think stability in the roster is the name of the game now. GM and Coach will be focused on integrating raw rookies on Defense this year and Bouchard (while an excellent player) is still relatively raw.
I’ve got a feeling that Barrie is really well liked and more importantly is vested in Edmonton as a team and place to live. Building a culture is also the name of the game. You need that sort of intangible stuff to keep McDrai around for the next decade.
In that sense I’m not sure the marginal improvements you’d see with Subban and say Klingberg coming in would be worth the potential disruption. I also don’t think the GM, Coach or Team particularly cares about Kook, even if he worked hard. Sceviour worked hard, Turris worked hard. I’ve still got a feeling that Kook ends up on LTIR creating a bit more space.
Moving Foegele is the smart mans play i think but the contract is backend loaded, with material cash differences from last year through the remaining two. I’d flip LTs idea and wonder if t takes an Oiler pick added in a pure cap dump and nothing more.
I also think there’s enough players with interchangeable salaries in the forward group that you could splice and dice as needed. Ryan and Janmark on the vets for sure but they won’t see the ice if they don’t deliver. Nothing guaranteed for forwards now. Its pure competition everywhere IMO.
I never said anyone cares about Koekkoek’s feelings. I’m only saying that if Koekkoek is playing better than Murray or if Murray is injured and you need to bring up a player and your Bakersfield coach is telling you that Koekkoek is the best player available on the farm then that is the player your cap situation needs to allow for.
Or to put it another way. If Shore is playing better than Benson, do you wansituation where you’re forced to play Benson over Shore to save $100k to stay under cap? Maybe Benson was smart in taking one of they lowest c as p his in the NHL. It might keep him in the NHL.
Koekkoek currently isn’t even listed on the roster on thee Oilers website. 10 D listed, but not him.
Also, no need for LTIR, his entire cap hit can be buried in the AHL. It’s only the guys with cap hits >$375k over minimum who cause dead cap when demoted. e.g. Kyle Turris last season, who was quietly tucked away on LTIR. He would have drained some $525k off the cap if sent to the minors.
The problem with having an experienced, patient GM is that we are likely to not have an answer to cap compliance for another few weeks. 😉
I was pleased to see McLeod skating around yesterday though. To me that is a sign that there will be a contract in place shortly.
Likely that the contract is already done but registered while Holland hammers out the rest.
Yup.
McLeod is among a group of 4 youngsters (also Skinner, Broberg, Holloway) who are doing some sort of promotional gig in Lloydminster in the next while.
You know you are invested in the team when… 🤓
My take is that there are multiple bridge deals in place (e.g. 1x $1 million OR 2x $1.5), & they are waiting to determine how much cap space is left to trigger the formal signing.
That sounds reasonable and I would add a handshake deal that if it has to go low the next negotiation will start with that in mind and he won’t be the guy that has to go last.
See: Kailer Yamamoto for details.
I’d be curious what PK Subban’s usage was. Was he third pair, getting on the ice when the puck was headed in the right direction, or was he being put out on faceoffs against the other team’s top lines? I feel that Barrie’s role on the team this year will be more substantial than 3rd pairing power play specialist. Pretty sure he’s going to be seeing a steady diet of 2nd pair duties until Bouchard is ready to excel with those types of minutes. If we picked up Subban and had to shelter him, then we would be using Bouchard as the shelter, which sort of defeats the purpose of picking up a veteran defenseman.
Subban played more 5v5 minutes per game than Barrie last year, so on first glance it doesn’t appear he was sheltered any more than Barrie was. Barrie has been sheltered his whole career whereas there was a time when Subban played top 3 minutes in the whole NHL and has 96 playoff games where he played top minutes. Earlier in his career he was a full on gambler which made his mistakes really stand out. I don’t think that’s as much of his game anymore.
Remember when Peter almost pulled the trigger on the rumoured Leon, Nurse and swap of 1st rounds picks back in 2016 for P.K Subban. It’s a good thing Montreal was so greedy.
Yikes, that would have been disastrous.
Just checked, Subban had more D and Neutral zone starts and less O-zones starts than Barrie. So he had harder usage than Barrie.
ALL STATS 5V5:
5v5TOI
Subban 16:16
Barrie 15:04
CF%
Subban 50.51
Barrie 50.36
FF%
Subban 50.38
Barrie 47.95
SF%
Subban 50.44
Barrie 48.12
xGF%
Subban 52.34
Barrie 49.51
HDCF%
Subban 55.53
Barrie 52.54
OZSTARTS/60
Subban 7.27
Barrie 8.84
NZSTARTS/60
Subban 11.77
Barrie 11.35
DZSTARTS/60
Subban 7.56
Barrie 7.47
PTS/60
Subban 0.96
Barrie 0.93
iHDCF/60
Subban 0.29
Barrie 0.22
Net giveaway-takeaways / 60
Subban 1.10 Giveaways
Barrie 1.42 Giveaways
Hits/60
Subban 3.02
Barrie 1.47
Blocked Shots / 60
Subban 3.69
Barrie 3.65
I would bet your ‘give-a-shit-meter’ plays (hits, blocked shots, takeaways, etc) would even be higher for Subban if he was playing on a contender last season rather than a bottom feeder. And less for Barrie if he wasn’t on a contender.
This is exactly the kind of informative post that I mentioned in my “thanks LT” post above. Good job Jaxon.
I don’t mind keeping Barrie, but he’s not going to have higher trade value than he does right now at this moment. If Subban was willing to sign here we’d be pretty remiss not at least look into moving Barrie now for whatever we can get back. I understand the insulate Bouchard thing, but if Subban was playing the tougher minutes and performing better on a very up and down Devils team than Barrie was here, this could work out very well. Subban could provide that same insulation for Bouchard, and/or be a good mentor for Broberg on the 3rd pair if that’s the path we take.