They Should Call it Goalie

by Lowetide
Photo by Mark Williams

The Edmonton Oilers won a road game against the Buffalo Sabres last night, a game that saw Connor McDavid score twice. Goaltender Stuart Skinner was a big part of the victory, and has established himself as the best bet in goal until further notice. The defense looks stronger with new acquisition Mattias Ekholm playing a major role, and centre Nick Bjugstadt won all 10 of his faceoffs. It was a good night for the Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
  • March actual result: 3-1-0, 6 points in four games
  • February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
  • January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 35-22-8, 78 points in 65 games

The Oilers are on pace to finish with 98 points and the early March success (3-1-0) is welcome considering the rest of the week’s schedule. Edmonton needs a point-per-game from here to make the playoffs, and any kind of winning streak in March could thrust them into the race for the division title. Next stop: Boston.

DEFENSE AND THE GOALIE

Stuart Skinner was outstanding, making big stops all along the way. His .928 save percentage at five-on-five ranks him No. 6 in the NHL among goalies with 1,000 or more minutes. He was central to the win, no idea how the coaching staff can entertain starting Campbell in Boston or Toronto but we’ll see.

Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci posted strong possession numbers, and credit to both for having success in some important areas. On the other hand, the duo was on the ice for six HDSC by the Tage Thompson line at five-on-five and that’sa big number. What did we learn? I think two things. First, Ceci isn’t an ideal partner for Nurse this year, and we could see a switch on RH side (Nurse-Bouchard, Ekholm-Ceci) at some point. Second, the Thompson line is a sheer heart attack for any team. Holy hell, boys.

Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard had a quieter night (just two HDSC against) and the puck was headed in a good direction for this duo. EKholm-Bouchard have played 53 minutes together five-on-five and are 6-2 goals. Impressive.

Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais had the puck going in a good direction five-on-five and gave up zero high-danger scoring chances. The duo also played a significant number of minutes, effectively turning the third pair into something resembling normal.

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid is 12-13-25 in his last 10 games, and last night he was the difference (along with Stuart Skinner). It reminded me of the good old days of McDavid-Talbot and pray for rain. On pace for 68-88-156. Zach Hyman is 2-6-8 in his last 10 and owns a 50 percent goal share. Those are good numbers, but it feels like a slump. That’s how good his season has been until this point. He’s usually money, but missed on a gorgeous chance last night. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a great goal that didn’t count, but the snipe showed everything that is good about his game this season. Nuge has emerged as a notable first-shot scorer later in his career. Music!

Leon Draisaitl wasn’t known as a first-shot scorer in junior, but tailored his skills to match what the captain required. Now, big Leon is the talk of the town. Draisaitl was the defender on the Dylan Cozens goal, but honestly it was an awkward play for anyone and some luck was involved. I wouldn’t give him an error on that one, but your mileage may vary. Ryan McLeod got the push to the top line and I thought he was excellent. Why? Like Patrick Maroon when he was auditioning, McLeod didn’t try to to too much. Played 9:15 with McDavid, 5-2 shots, 1-0 goals. I’d like to see him there again, but Mark Spector reported last night Evander Kane may play in Boston. So we’ll see. Mattias Janmark is playing well, 50 percent goal share and 1.49 points-60 over the last 10 games. I know many fans would prefer to see a younger player in this spot, but for me it seems every deep playoff run in Oilers history has involved a player just like Janmark.

Kailer Yamamoto is 1.66 pts-60 at five-on-five over his most recent 10 games, but with a 36 percent goal share. My own read on his game last night, and in the last 10, is that he’s playing better than the numbers have allowed. That usually comes out in the wash. Nick Bjugstadt won all 10 of his faceoffs, incredible performance and I’m sure the league will find a way to punish the Oilers for it. Maybe send another pick to San Jose for Todd McLellan. I keep mixing him up with Vincent Desharnas, which is good because it means the big man is in defensive coverage often. I like him. Pretty sold on the idea he’s going to have success here. Warren Foegele is playing like someone forgot to tell him the trade deadline passed. He’s working hard every night, and in his last 10 games boasts a 3.44 pts-60 and a 50 percent goal share (all at five-on-five). I know he came from Carolina, but when I watch him and McLeod and Holloway, I’m reminded of the mid-90’s when it seemed the Oilers were calling up exciting and interesting wingers every few days. I wonder if there’s a Miro Satan down there. (There is not).

Derek Ryan scored a huge goal and is now officially one of Edmonton’s great utility forwards in, like, ever. He’s so damned handy! You know, I always tease Bob Stauffer on the air about it, but Stauffer had Ryan pegged as a player long before he arrived in Edmonton. Ryan is so smart I’m betting your house he lands a job as an NHL coach or executive. Klim Kostin didn’t make my summary list (I did it after the game and was bone tired) but I saw him good as a bull in a china shop winger. He had one HDSC and the puck was heading in a good direction when he was on the ice. Kostin was 1-0 goals at five-on-five. Devin Shore will never get much love from the math folks but in his last 8 games (he has played 8 of the last 10) he owns a 3.13 pts-60 total and is 5-1 goals. A hot streak for sure, but Shore is showing the way for guys like Tyler Benson and Noah Philp. Make yourself useful as well as ornamental!

STUART SKINNER

I had him No. 25 on my WHL list and he didn’t make my final 150 for the 2017 draft. For your enjoyment, here is Harvest Moon 2017.  

  • No. 22 overall: R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). One of the best skill players in the draft, boxcars throughout his WHL career show impressive skill and a great deal of progress. Size is going to be an issue for him as he enters pro hockey in 2018 or 2019 fall, but outstanding speed and skill should take him a long way if Yamamoto can stay healthy. I had him just outside the top 10 overall and consider this pick to be the latest in a string (Leon, 97, JP, Yamamoto) of brilliant/lucky selections.
  • No. 78 overall: G Stuart Skinner, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). In listening to Bob Green in his media avail, it’s pretty clear the club had targeted this goalie and were willing to give up an extra pick to get him. He posted a .905SP in the regular season and .916SP in the playoffs. Skinner had a great .920SP a year ago, and this may be a case of (like Dylan Wells) getting better value due to a goalie’s performance in his draft year. The last time we saw this kind of verbal on an Oilers goalie draft pick was Devan Dubnyk. The numbers don’t imply that kind of player but we’ll see how things turn out.
  • No. 84 overall: LD Dmitri Samorukov, Guelph Storm (OHL). A big mobile defender who struggled to find consistency this year, he is regarded as a solid two-way prospect. Samorukov turned a corner mid-year and appears to be a more substantial player than his numbers imply. Brock Otten spent some time with me today discussing him and believes he has second-round talent.
  • No. 115 overall: R Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Czech). I’m a fan of this selection and had him in my second round (No. 52) for the 2017 draft. One of three picks today that I think fans can be genuinely pleased over. Corey PronmanAt 6-foot-5, he has very good feet for a big man, with an easy first few steps. He handles the puck fine, can make the occasional creative play or distribution, possesses an accurate wrist shot and is able to finish chances well. However, he’s not going to be a primary playmaker on his line as a pro. His physical play is inconsistent.
  • No. 146 overall: L Kirill Maksimov, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). Name is also spelled Maximov so don’t be fooled in that regard. Like Safin, this is a player who should be considered as a legit offensive prospect. An “honorable mention” on Bob McKenzie’s list, the industry seems to think he is among the 100 best prospects in this draft. Size, speed, skill. The only LW chosen on the day, perhaps giving us a clue about Tyler Benson’s health. Maksimov scored 19 goals in his final 33 games this season, perhaps he spiked in a timely fashion.
  • No. 177 overall: C Skyler Brind’Amour, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The only center taken this weekend by Edmonton, he has a nice range of skills. In a draft that keeps me reminding me of last year, I would say his skills are comparable to Aapeli Rasanen. Steve Kournianos:  Skyler is a strong-skating forward who is competent in all three zones. Brind’amour is a cerebral player who hustles, competes and displays occasional periods of dominance. He doesn’t have breakaway speed but is difficult to slow down once he reaches top speed.”
  • No. 208 overall: RHD Phil Kemp, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). When in doubt about a draft, never a bad idea to take kids out of this program and Peter Chiarelli does it frequently. He is a young (1999) man with a defensive skill set, 6.03 and 201. Good skater, defense first, blocks a lot of shots. I’ve learned from Caleb Jones not to trust boxcars from the USHL, numbers are dependent on usage and this fellow could have some offense we don’t know about at this time.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

A complete rundown of last night’s win over the Sabres and we’ll look ahead to the Bruins and Maple Leafs later this week. We’ll chat MLB, NFL draft, CFL, the Brier and more! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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jp

And:
——————————-

Oiler Alert@OilerAlert·8h

Brad Holland says the #Oilers org were “crossing their fingers” that Ekholm would become available as the deadline drew closer. Says they “almost couldn’t believe it” when NSH accepted. He labels it as the “most significant trade acquisition” in his time with the team.

flea

It’s the biggest acquisition for the Oilers since the Pronger trade. The Hall-Larsson trade is in there but the Oilers were on the wrong side of the talent scale on that one.

jp

Brad Holland seems to have been interviewed somewhere today (maybe folks know where?)
———————–

Oiler Alert@OilerAlert·8h

Brad Holland mentions that the #Oilers wanted to address PK before the deadline. Says they had the opportunity to potentially add offense in bottom-6 or even top-6, but went for Bjugstad instead due to his experience killing penalties (top 30 in PK TOI league-wide).

Yukon Jerk

Also Bjud cap hit or lack thereof made the deal possible

OriginalPouzar

He was on Oilers Now.

Pretendergast

The NHL is a joke as always. Minny scores in OT to win. 5 minutes go by. Flames don’t challenge. Players leave the bench and go to the dressing room. Refs call them back saying the play is offside. Watch the replay. Cale Makar’s goal counted 10 feet offside but this one with full possession doesn’t. It’s unfathomable.

One of the refs bet Marky to get a shutout. It is the only thing that makes sense. Even the players have no clue what offside is anymore. So needlessly dumb, its a solitary, unmoving line. Reference:

https://twitter.com/HockeyDaily365/status/1633316922367397888?s=20

Last edited 1 year ago by Pretendergast
Harpers Hair

Very early in the second period….Colorado leads San Jose 5-0.

SOG are 25-2

jp

This was their statement game in response to losing 3 straight to actual playoff teams, so fair enough.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

Vegas loses in regulation to the east (Florida) – a good start to the out of town board.

dunterpunter
PaperDesigner

I think “Under the Rock” is the actual mailing address of the Edmonton Oilers MSM.

knighttown

I wonder if Woody will modernize the thought process on game day deployment like he’s done with 11/7 and like some pioneer did with backup goalies. Id say the current model is “don’t change a winning lineup”.

But why wait for Shore to struggle next game or Broberg to go stale? What about alternating Broberg/Vinny/7D in 3-game segments. If a pattern emerges you can change the script.

Same with Shore, Kostin, Ryan, Janmark, 11F, 12F. Map it out based on matchups.

You can still keep serious internal competition. If Bjugstadt or Yamo or Foegele or Kulak falter or get dinged up they fall to the part timer tier, replaced by whomever beats them.

Sports science would suggest that if you’ve got the ability to use rest as a weapon do so.

W

Settled science at its best.

Redbird62

From Day 1 till the trade deadline, due to the cap, the Oilers have had at most 1 extra player available player to play, with many nights of only 20 bodies and in 3 or 4 games only 19. Most nights this year he was putting out the only healthy players he had available, with almost no opportunity to be flexible. When he did have 21 and was going 11-7, he would still flip around between Foegele, Jesse and Ryan each missing a game or a few as opposed to always the same forward being scratched.

Last regular season, when Woody had a 23 person roster, and like most NHL coaches including Tippett before him, he regularly switched out players at the bottom of the roster, if players were nicked up a bit or just to make sure the players in the press box didn’t go stale. Through a combination of injuries, trades and just moving players in and out, Woody used 10 different defenseman from Feb 11 to the end of the season. He also used 19 forwards over those 38 games. Both he and Tippett have said in interviews they don’t want available roster players sitting too many games in a row. When those switches are made is also a function of the opposition line up and style as well, so I don’t think you’re actually advocating for much new here that Woody is not fully aware of.

Now once Kane is healthy, he could have 22 players available most nights and he will use it. He has expressly stated the value of the optionality available to him as a great motivator to keep his players on their toes since they know their is competition for spots in the line up.

flea

I think it absolutely makes a difference, it can motivate players, allow for rest, lineup changes for different styles of opponents.

I like they walked the line through a large part of the season to keep the best team on the ice, but that JP deal must have been on the table earlier. Holland I think really liked JP and also was nervous about injury cover.

Dee Dee

It can also tick players off and demotivate them.

Dee Dee

Don’t Mess with it if it isn’t broken worked out for me at least 10 to 1 of the time.

Once it is broken mess away.

Harpers Hair
Optimism is like heroin

This is where Holland needs to shop. We have a very shallow pool of prospects and few draft picks.

Harpers Hair

NCAA and European leagues can pay big dividends if your scouting is up to snuff.

Certainly turned out well for the Canucks when they picked up Kuzmenko from the KHL.

On pace for 35-40 goals.

I do wonder if the KHL might not be so rewarding under current circumstances.

Optimism is like heroin

Kuzmenko is a bit of a cherry as he had a lot of offers but you are absolutely right.
KHL might be high reward but scouting will be an issue.
Best thing for the oil is we have so many contract spots available they can take a scatter shot approach and still be ahead.

Optimism is like heroin

Next year if we resign the expected there will still be 11 contract spots available.

Harpers Hair

For many of the NCAA prospects, they are looking for a clear path to an NHL job and their agents often negotiate contracts that allow them to play enough games to burn off an ELC year right away.

That tends to be a benefit for lesser NHL teams since they can offer those opportunities.

Optimism is like heroin

My counter to them is there will be 4 to 6 jobs available to be taken each year. The oil need good and cheap players in the bottom half of the roster. It may not look like a clear path but there are few obstacles then you would think.

Kuzmenko is a great example. If he had signed here instead of van he would be playing next to Draistl as 2RW.

Harpers Hair

If the Oilers were to sign a couple of these NCAA free agents, do you think they would be offered the opportunity to play in the NHL at the tail end of this season?

That is an issue for some.

Optimism is like heroin

I would not guarantee games but reality is a rough place. By the all star game the oil lost 104 man games due to injury. Those are the games I offer and the people they have to beat to get those games are not significant. For example shore, Malone, niemelainen were the players to beat for those games.

Scungilli Slushy

IMO if the Oilers have another good run, if the GM can’t use that and Connor to start getting some of the guys that are not only going to play in the US, he’s not good enough at pitching

Redbird62

Edmonton and several other teams knew as much about Kuzmenko as Vancouver did. All teams monetary offers to him were the same, so it came down to the Canucks being able to give him more certainty of high end opportunity. Worked out well financially for him, since they backed up the truck to keep him for a couple more seasons, which the OIlers couldn’t have done anyway with the top 5 forwards they have on the payroll, not one of whom they’d want to switch with Kuzmenko. Of course he gets to make $5.5 million for a complete tire fire of an organization and will probably want to leave in 2 seasons, especially if Elias bolts.

And no one needs to tell Holland the value of European scouting. He has 4 rings largely because of his understanding of the value of that long before most others in the NHL figured it out.

Harpers Hair

As I said…it comes down to opportunity.

The rest of your post is nothing but homerism.

DevilsLettuce

It’s homerism to suggest Hollands has a history of overseas procurement? Neat.

Harpers Hair

Sorry…I can’t see one NCAA or European free agent on the Oilers roster that was procured by Holland.

Am I missing something?

Optimism is like heroin

None on the roster right now but the closest would be Noah Philip, he could certainly be in the running for some games if injury happens to a big center. He is also likely in the mix for 4c next training camp.

We likely won’t get top guys who want guaranteed nhl time.

Dee Dee

I’m trying to figure out what the opposite of homerism is, all I can come up with is a bit smelly, hairy, hard to get rid of and lives under a bridge.

meanashell11

and all of your posts are d bagism

jp

A great rundown of some of the top NCAA free agents.

So if I’m understanding, you are posting a list of top prospects for us, that you are telling us the Oilers will NOT be able to sign.

Do I have that right?

Optimism is like heroin

I don’t think so just that there are difficulties and not a flat we want all the best rookies. No money for nothing or any chick’s for free.

Harpers Hair

Nope…these players are available to all teams…but that doesn’t mean ignoring what the players or their agents might set as priorities is a reasonable thing to do.

Very few of the top NCAA free agents look forward to spending a year or 3 in the AHL since they are already significantly older than 18 year old draft picks.

Any roster that is full of marginal players is at a distinct disadvatage since they don’t have opportunity as an incentive.

Admiral Ackbar

“…..your mileage may vary.”

My favourite LT-ism.

godot10

It won’t when we are all confined to our fifteen-minute cities, and our resource usage tracked and/or permissioned by programmable CBDC’s. But hey, we will own nothing and we will be happy.

I hope I get #6 in my fifteen minute city.

danny

can we keep the fear-mongering political comments off the blog please in respect for our host?

godot10

Satire is fear-mongering?

danny

Regardless, you’re either pushing a pro-right-wing conspiracy in the form of a joke, or you’re making fun of a right-wing conspiracy. Regardless of what side you’re on, this blog isn’t the place for political commentary.

The last time you did the same, your response was ‘its a joke’ too

godot10

So a “Schodinger’s joke”! -). Whether the cat/joke is dead or alive depends on the audience/reader.

Humour is good for awareness. I am not telling you how to think.

Last edited 1 year ago by godot10
innercitysmytty

Pretty sure conspiracy theories fall into LT’s no go zone. Surprised this made it through.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Bjugstad actually reminds me of JP. Large wingspan. Disrupts a lot of passes on the backcheck.

Bjugstad looks a little more agile.

I also think he read Munny’s posts earlier this month re: faceoffs and took it personally.

Reja

He’s huge for a half a second he looks like Mario Lemieux. He has to be the tallest forward the franchise has ever had.

Last edited 1 year ago by Reja
Kert

Yup, he’s the only 6’6″ forward in Oilers history. There’s a bunch of 6’5″ guys, Bogdan Yakimov, Steve MacIntyre, Brad Winchester, Alexei Mikhnov, Jason Arnott, Mike Ware, Dave Brown…

Munny 2.0

No shit, eh? lol. I was delighted with his performance last night. Of course, we would want to see this stretch out over more and better match-ups, but gotta like the arrow thus far.

norm2015

i wanted Bjugstad on the team back in 2014 he was always a good player

Dee Dee

Except for the $900,000 salary part.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s going to be interesting to see with a pretty solid roster if the coaches can get the guys dialed into the little things, and stay there. A lack of quality players is not a problem

In the top 20 points getters right now, the fellas with +/- at zero or underwater are Leon, Kucherov, E Karlsson, Point and Kyle Connor. Point and Kuch were benched. The Sharks suck, and the Jets are hurting

The Bruins before the deadline on paper didn’t to me look like the juggernaut they are this season. But when your best players are also the most detailed, what choice do the others have but to buy in and try to work as hard, and carry their weight?

The Oilers need their best players to play the right way. Every game, all game. If they are serious about their stated goal. The day won’t come soon enough for me that Leon stops trying to make impossible passes in terrible dangerous places on the ice, at any point in the game, ahead or behind, and also starts changing off with a little urgency

He’s great for sure, but the numbers at Even Strength aren’t good enough for a guy with 96 points and that ability, 46.3 GF% since Jan 1. Connor is only 50.79 GF%, at least he’s above water, but he should be roasting guys on a spit. They do have high TOI vs Elites of course, but they should be able to handle that, no? That’s the gig

They both have crappy On Ice SV%, Connor the worst, Leon 7th worst, but what part are they playing in that? I have long felt that because the Oilers have such spectacular defensive lapses they break stats and make life very hard on goalies

The Oilers as a team also like deflecting pucks on their own net and screening the wrong goalie. Most goalies need stable predictable play in front of them to be at their best and get dialed in I think. Especially goalies that are active in the net, as opposed to large positional types

Yes Bruce’s HUA/60 or my BF/60 is lower, but the number remains significant to my eyes. And the two best are quite often the naughty ones

The egregious mistakes also explain how a team can have solid HDSCA numbers but brutal GA numbers. The only teams with more GA are not what one would consider the better teams in the league

Magic time again Woody!

Reja

How many open nets does Leon gift Yamo yet he somehow fumbles it like a Deer caught in the headlights all dazed and confused.

Scungilli Slushy

Too many!

90s fan

I think Leon only remembers the plays that work. And believes all plays coming from him will work. Its what allows him to pick a hole the size of a puck, look at it, smile, and sling the puck into the net. Its the reason he slapshots shoot out attempts (Imma put that puck into that impossible hole!) And it is the reason he fires that impossible backhand. His gift and his curse.

Scungilli Slushy

I think that’s a good way to see it

Playing a more mature game and not attempting miracle plays at the offensive blue line or in the neutral zone wouldn’t be a bad adjustment

Reja

The Rangers game he missed a breakaway a couple of other grade A chances. Woody uses him in the shootout trying to get him going was a joke almost as bad as Flat Top using Lucic in OT against Pittsburgh. He choked 2 wide open nets against Boston. Most of his 8 Goals are deflections from way out. Anyhow Woody needs to find a better fit for Leon once big boy hockey starts are else will be getting swept again by the Av’s.

Scungilli Slushy

Maybe Hollywood can supplant him, maybe Klimdros goes full on

I agree. Yama is who he is. He’s not turning into a producer at this point. 20 goals is great, all the other non Oiler 20 goal guys did a hell of a lot more to get theirs. Not a great fit in the Oiler top 6 as I see it, as much as I admire the kid

E Kane isn’t a super skilled player, but if he could stay in the line up he’d bang in 30-40, as anyone playing with the Duo should. Especially according to Oiler history, and anyone going on a streak playing with Wayner. Nets that way Bud

Darth Tu

Don’t do it Reja! Spector will be firing up the word processor if he reads that comment!

Reja

You can’t fall in love with Journeyman players. Sather 9 times out of 10 sold high before the player crashed in a year or two. If Sather took over when Holland did we would of had 1 Cup at least and be the favourites for the next 5 years.

Bill

Yams being injured and bad puck luck this season and Campbell having crap luck, it is what it is.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bill
OriginalPouzar

Erik Karlsson may be “minus 6” but he’s plus 12 at 5 on 5.

He’s been on the ice for 18 empty net goals against – EIGHTEEN!!!!

Scungilli Slushy

Yup, a crappy team

Fuge Udvar

I could only get the Buffalo feed last night (maybe that was the only one). Their in-game reporter made a point of watching Ekholm on the bench and was saying how after every shift he talking to Bouchard and telling him what to do. She made a point that it didn’t look like a discussion but Ekholm but was really coaching him.

Perfect

I would leave that pairing alone.

meanashell11

I’m not sure it was the Buff feed, I think it was ESPN feed. Was that Hextall?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

No, it was someone else. She was good though.

106 and 106

Emily Kaplan!

Scungilli Slushy

If the Viking can whip young Old Man Bouch into shape, it will be worth the extra 1st Kenny paid. Caveat being Kenny can’t overpay OMB. But he will. Maybe Brad will take over this summer and save us

Reja

He throws around draft picks like a drunken Sailor. How would you like to be on his scouting team? You only get a few picks in the deepest draft since the red tag button fly Jeans came on the market.

Scungilli Slushy

I am no fan of Holland’s continual overpays in deals and on important contracts. They hurt the franchise. He got Kane right, but that situation put itself on him, his role was in not being biased against Kane. To me not some master stroke of GMing

OriginalPouzar

When we heard/read that the Predator were retaining 4% on Ekholm, some of us thought it was weird or funny or considered it an after-thought. Thinking about it later, kudos to Holland for negotiating that in as, without it, there is no Bjugstad.

That would have increased cost. That’s 4 seasons where the Predator tie up one of their 3 available retainment spots.

defmn

Had to have the Bjugstad deal in place just waiting for them to decide which prospect they wanted added.

leadfarmer

While savvy move we did pay for it in full.

Side

I recall there was angst when Shore was extended by Holland as people wanted Holland to set his sights higher. I was also one of those people. But Shore really seems to be quite the professional and a great teammate. Always seems happy to be playing no matter where he is slotted, seems to make the most of his time in the AHL when he’s sent down, doesn’t seem to give up on the ice, gives his jersey number up to the new guy, etc. I am sure there is more I am forgetting.

Anyway – go Shore!

Abbeef

Also remember who went on holidays with Leon and Connor. I’m sure his relationship with the big guns had something to do with that signing.

OriginalPouzar

During the bye-week, I don’t think anyone went on holidays with Leon, Connor, Lauren and Celeste – unless I missed it (but those four with posting on IG constantly during the trip).

Yukon Jerk

A good reminder that Some doors should just remain closed

jm363561

“Warren Foegele is playing like someone forgot to tell him the trade deadline passed.” On fire today LT. Great line! (Also the loved the “make yourself useful as well as ornamental.”)

Munny 2.0

(I feel like LT’s kids may have heard that second line before, lol)

Victoria Oil

I agree with LT and Brobergstan about Derek Ryan. He’s not blessed with size or exceptional physical skills, but I am frequently thinking what a big brain he has when I watch him.

His goal and that whole dominating shift by the 4th line late in the second period was the highlight of last night’s game for me.

Redbird62

Hey, U of A lad is bound to be smart 😉. Maybe not doctor smart like Randy Gregg.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

The Derek Ryan is a certified beauty, i want kenny to give him at least another yr.

I can also see him in a front office or coaching role long term, he just is a real thinker of the game.

Victoria Oil

I’d be perfectly fine with another year for Ryan at $1 million or less.

OriginalPouzar

It may behoove him to sign for less than $787,500, which is Noah Philp’s qualifying offer.

theDjdj

He’s got a scorers mind for sure. Knows where to be to score the goal. I’m surprised he’s only ever scored 15 in his career. Sort of player that might have easily scored 20 given the chance.

Redbird62

He turned 30 3 months after the start of his rookie season and put up 29 points. The next season, when he was mostly 31 he got the 15 goals, but had a total 38 points. So very good offensive numbers for a 31 yr old sophomore. His most common linemate was Jeff Skinner, so he probably figured he’d set the known goal scorer up instead of shooting himself. He managed 38 points and 29 points (68 games) the next 2 seasons on mostly the 3rd line in Calgary too, but again more of a playmaker.

He doesn’t have to score goals to be a good offensive contributor. He is smart enough to know to take what’s given to him, and this year, on average ,the better opportunities are to shoot the puck.

Admiral Ackbar

Top quintile NHL-brain, Swiss league calibre body. I absolutely love this player.

OriginalPouzar

AHL contract swap:

Bakersfield Condors

@Condors
·
5m
The Condors have acquired d-man Xavier Bernard from the Belleville Senators in exchange for Graham McPhee.

Victoria Oil

Another Xavier B. for the Condors.

Bernard is 23 and was drafted in the 4th round in 2018 by New Jersey. 6’4″ and 200 lbs. This year he has 1 point in 17 AHL games and 8 points in 18 ECHL games.

who

First of all, full credit to Buffalo for creating all those scoring chances. They are a very good team and are 1 or 2 defenseman away from being an annual cup contender.
Having said that, the Oilers have got to protect middle ice better in their own zone. Draisaitl was bad last night. He left Cousins alone in the slot 2 or 3 times in the 1st period alone. He also really struggled with the puck last night. So did Hyman and Bugstad.
That victory was mostly Skinner and McDavid, and that kind of defensive effort won’t get them far in the postseason.

DevilsLettuce

Bugstad went 10-0 in face offs, what’s not struggling with the puck look like?

who

If you think winning faceoffs is an indication of puck handling ability I have no argument for you

Ice Sage

Oilers had 2 goals called back.
Also their second goal points to the better team – that ’90 second possession ending in the net’ used to happen all the time TO the Oilers (hello, Getzlaf/Perry, Sedinery) when they were the less mature team.

TheGreatBigMac

Yes having a team that can cycle the puck, hold the zone and attack is amazing. No more pop gun off the rush only offense.

Side

That victory was mostly Skinner and McDavid, and that kind of defensive effort won’t get them far in the postseason.”

Is there a team out there that doesn’t rely on their tender and top player(s) to do a lot of the heavy lifting in some wins?

I mean, we saw Boston get out of Alberta and imo, were lucky to get 4 points out of the trip instead of 0 if it weren’t for their stellar goaltending and Calgary’s lack of goaltending.

Genjutsu

The game called mostly goalie, after all.

Harpers Hair

Carolina.

Side

I haven’t watched enough of Carolina’s games to agree or disagree, but I am definitely looking forward to seeing them in the playoffs.

pixel-bender

Always relying on your goaltender to steal games is not sustainable — well, post-Hasek at least.

However, winning games when the high-quality scoring chances are close or even (gasp) favour the other team is fine. Stealing the odd game is something NHL-calibre goaltenders do from time to time.

Oiler fans have become so accustomed to the opposition’s goalies being better that we feel that any game where we don’t hold a wide lead in scoring chances is as good as a loss. Or a sign of imminent doom.

It’s not. Buffalo had its chances. Dominated much of the second. Skinner had a very good game. Such things happen, even to very good teams.

YYCOil

One of the stars for me last night was the reasonable deployment of TOI.

We all know Connor is chancing another fantastic career scoring number, the coach should reset that talk right now. A fresh and rested Connor, Leon and Darrell going into the play-offs is much more important than Connor scoring 65 goals.

A 12-6 deployment is reasonable ice time is a gift in May!

Elgin R

NBA teams ‘load manage’ players by actually sitting star players at times. Under 20 minutes a night probably feels like load management to 97.

If they want to sit McDavid out Woodman could look at the 3 games against Ducks and Sharks in April. I KNOW there are 4 games but I have tickets to the April 13th game so Connor MUST play!

innercitysmytty

I’m a season ticket holder and all for reducing the ice time of our best players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. However, other than maybe the last game, if teams start resting all of their star players for multiple games late in the season, I should be getting a discount on my tickets.

theDjdj

NBA players are far more vulnerable to athletic injuries than NHL players though. Guys 6’5”+ aren’t meant to put their body under that much physical strain. Newton comes for all.

Darth Tu

If you know anything about Newton’s personal life you’d find he comes for nobody. Ba-doom-pssst.

OriginalPouzar

Whooof: good thing Skinner is only 6’4 but the Deharnais and Bjugstad may need their loads managed.

Bruce McCurdy

Every skater on the team between 13-23 shifts.

W

And shifts no longer that 50 seconds(except power plays)

DevilsLettuce

Imo if Connor is playing 18-19 mins a night from here on out he’s got a great chance at 70.

Looks like he’s decided to apply the speed he does everything at to his release as well. Mostly goalies are pucking cooked.

Chuck Noland

A couple of things and then 4 more:

1) Codi Ceci was highly instrumental in the offensive zone on the Oilers second goal

2) Ekholm with a stellar (slippery) play to beat/avoid Tage Thompson’s forecheck and then make the long breakout pass to Foegele that turns into the GWG. McDavid scores and immediately points in the direction of Ekholm. When asked at the deadline, the Oilers players said they like to add a Dman who can get the puck to the forwards. With his combined skills on defense and offense, is Ekholm the perfect fit?

3) Nick “Rotisserie Chicken” Bjugstad in the faceoff circle, on the backcheck, and on the PK is another critical role player. Is he on a high from moving to a contender, or is this level of play completely sustainable?

4) Anyone missing JP?

5) Oilers won the Foegele for Bear trade; IMO I think this is now established fact / settled science.

6) Will be interesting to see how Woodcroft prioritizes winning vs building up Jack Campbell.

Last edited 1 year ago by Chuck Noland
Hockey Project

Ekholm with a stellar (slippery) play to beat/avoid Tage Thompson’s forecheck and then make the long breakout pass to Foegele that turns into the GWG.

Yeah. Really close to my own notes last night: “Really nice play by Eklholm in his end to hold on to the puck, turn away from the forecheck of Thompson and then get it to Foegele at centre. Passes across to McDavid, who gets it at full speed. 54th of the year. 3-2”

Munny 2.0

What is “settled science”? I’ve never heard of this notion before. Seems like anathema to actual science.

defmn

“Settled science” is the term used for decisions made by part-time drama teachers after they transition into careers in politics.

Last edited 1 year ago by defmn
Harpers Hair

And many climate “scientists”

Side

This isn’t in defense of any particular political leader, more a statement about how ribbing a politician for their career prior to being in politics is kinda weird.

Lincoln was a bartender and part owner of a liquor store.

Zelenskyy was an actor.

Reagan was an actor.

Etc.

Being a career politician doesn’t necessarily make one a good political leader either.

Mayan Oil

Truman was a haberdasher as well. Sold men’s suits for a living.

Last edited 1 year ago by Mayan Oil
Side

It’s the thing that doesn’t actually exist, but applies to situations where 99.99999% of the time the science predictable and accurate, with exceptions.

Also a dog whistle certain political groups use to challenge and question scientists. The same politicians who don’t understand nuance, and their supporters who don’t either but eat it up.

For example: it is settled science to say the Earth is roundish and rotates around the sun.

Politicians could say that there is no such thing as settled science, and that the Earth could be flat and being carried on a cosmic turtles back.

People hear that “science can’t be settled” and agree and think that yes, tje Earth could be flat and on a turtles back.

godot10

You do realize that science currently has a reproducibility crisis, along with a article review crisis. Hey, but 99.999% of the science is “settled”.

Some reproducibility studies have shown that perhaps less than 50% of medical and psychology journal publications may be reproducible.

Durag

I understand why Ekholm wasn’t the sexiest option of trade deadline targets because everything he does is so subtle. You probably wouldn’t notice all the good things he does when he’s playing against your team. Ruthlessly efficient.

godot10

There is no such thing as “settled” science. Anyone who uses the term self-identifies as being ignorant of the scientific process. “Settled” science is wokism applied to science.

Side

Is it a wokism thing?

I am pretty sure the Earth being roundish is a settled science that has been discussed before the invention of “wokism”.

That doesn’t mean the roundness of the Earth can’t be discussed at all though.

Unless you think the Earth being roundish is not settled science?

Munny 2.0

Your example is no longer in the realm of science. It is now a directly observable fact, like that of a table being a table, or a red table possessing the colour red. Science would address the “why” of these things, not whether or not that table is a table, or a red table.

Side

I am not sure what to tell you when there are people out there trying to use science to prove the Earth is flat. And they even end up using settled science to try to prove it, but end up proving the Earth is round (woops!)

But at some point in time, it was not observable as you say, but there was enough science to call it settled.

Munny 2.0

I’m not sure what in that is relevant to the discussion here. Any scientific theory is subject to inquiry and debate, no matter how long it has been held. Any individual can wield science however he sees fit, no matter how misguided that might seem. The fact that flat-earthers have been unable to use science to advance their theory, shows how well scientific debate works. Theories are usually only supplanted by better theories, and those cases where they are supplanted by poorer theories, we usually find out later about some political involvement or deliberate falsehood. For eg. Lysenkoism, or the cold fusion fake.

I also recommend the article to which I posted the link, which shows how important it is to science that it be considered “unsettled.” It’s a far more powerful tool for knowledge when we wield it that way.

And to tell you the truth, your example would’ve been more accurate if you had flipped it on its head. For years, the authorities told humans that the earth was flat. The reason that changed is because science never gave up testing that notion. If humans were into settled science, the earth would “still be flat.” Flat Earthers are rebelling against earlier rebels, which is such a human irony.

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
Side

“The fact that flat-earthers have been unable to use science to advance their theory, shows how well scientific debate works. Theories are usually only supplanted by better theories, and those cases where they are supplanted by poorer theories, we usually find out later about some political involvement or deliberate falsehood. For eg. Lysenkoism, or the cold fusion fake.”

But that’s the thing, flat earthers have been unable to advance their theory because the science doesn’t support them. The onus is on them to come up with a better theory and to show their work, until then, for arguments sake, it’s settled.

And I am glad you brought up my example, because you are right, the authorities at the time did say it was flat but with no science to fully support it. And there were also those actively people pushing against that notion because, surprise, they had science to support them.

I am not sure how or why “settled science” became a “wokism” thing. It’s a “this particular topic has been tested, predictable and accurate 99.9999% of the time so it’s fair to say it’s “settled””

That doesn’t mean that it can never be challenged, it means if it is to be challenged, then people better show their work to prove otherwise.

“settled science” doesn’t mean “don’t challenge me or the community on topic, ever”.

Or at least, that’s my take. I can’t speak for what politicians take it to mean, or other people within the scientific community.

Even the guy in your article seems to have a different opinion as to what “settled science” means compared to other authors who also write articles about it.

I more object to this notion of it being some “woke” thing as if “wokists” came up with it. And I definitely find it interesting to see who may be falling victim to the “culture war” more than anything.

Mayan Oil

Personally, I am distressed by the amount of dog whistle politics occuring today, and it is bleeding into personal discourse as well. Rather than debating on merits, we are becoming intellectual bulllies in general, using wide brush ad hominem attacks, like calling any opposing position “socialist”, Woke”, or on the other side of the political scale ” elitist entitlement”. If I hear the term “sheeple” on more tim, there will be blood.

In an era of increasing media echo chambers, rather than professional inquiry and fact checking, we are constantly being manipulated by vestd power groups of all stripes. When do the grown ups return to the room?

/end rant/

Harpers Hair

Hoo boy…here comes Shrodinger’s cat.

Side

You may have read or heard about Schrodinger’s cat. Or at least you thought you did.

There’s no settled science around how your eyes read things, or how your ears hear things, and how your brain interprets them.

To suggest you understand schrodinger’s cat enough to reference it based on wokism’s settled science on what you thought you read or heard about it is laughable!

WAKEUPSHEEPLE.

Last edited 1 year ago by Side
Harpers Hair

I understood it well enough to teach it.

Jumping to conclusions about the educational background of others while name calling is pretty sad.

Side

Interestingly, I didn’t jump to any conclusions about your educational background. I made my comment in jest from the perspective of an anti awake (a.k.a someone who is asleep) person.

But it’s funny when you feel offended about it, when in the same thread you put this:

“And many climate “scientists””

I’m sorry – did you jump to conclusions about the educational backgrounds of these scientists? Is that why you put it in quotes?

If so.. well, I don’t need to remind you since you already laid out your thoughts about someone who would do such a thing.

Fuhrious

Exciting! We need more nerds around here!

What did you tell students who asked about the matrix representation for the operator representing the collapse of the wave function that is the central piece of the cat experiment? It came up in lecture this term and I’m not sure the students were satisfied with my answer.

Mayan Oil

See previous comment re dog whistle politics. Please stop now. You are convincing no one and alienating everyone.

Fuhrious

Ugh, better not to weigh into contentious topics like amateur thought about climate change or silly ideas about “wokism” in science, so I won’t add to the fight on this lovely hockey website.

As a professor of science though, these are my thoughts on the term “settled science”:

Science is nothing more than the idea of proposing an explanation and then checking to see if it fits with all available evidence (including hunting for new evidence to try to break the theory).

When a hypothesis has survived many decades of being attacked and arguments in the scientific community have pretty much settled down (gravity, quantization of fields, evolution, etc.), some people describe the hypothesis as “settled science.” A pretty reasonable colloquialism if you ask me.

Consider a newer topic. The supremacy of current-generation quantum computers has been hypothesized and there is some evidence for it. It is certainly a valid scientific claim. However, to really know for sure, we have to take many years to let people try to beat those times by modifying algorithms on classical computers. Otherwise, how do we know we’ve really reached the max speed on a classical computer? The hypothesis of quantum supremacy is still science, it’s still well supported, but it’s a new idea and the community’s discussion hasn’t really settled down yet.

defmn

And, of course, once an issue is politicized it becomes even more difficult to untangle truth from narratives.

Journalism has pretty much destroyed the reputation of the word ‘expert’ over the course of the last 30 odd years.

Or to tell my little joke that nobody but me finds funny – we are currently suffering from a crisis of too much nurture for too little nature. 😎

Munny 2.0

That’s strange a turnaround because when I was at university, my professors were adamant that there was no such thing as “settled science”.

This was just written in the past two weeks, and while I went to university a few decades ago, it pretty much summarizes my profs’ thinking in that time and place:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/chomsky-popper-turing/202302/how-einstein-shattered-the-myth-of-settled-science

Fuhrious

Psychologists misunderstanding Newton v. Einstein may not be the best source on science notation.

I think though that this article and your undergraduate coursework had the same goal though: introduce the fact that science philosophy means saying we never know to 100% So, like, technically we say we don’t know 100% that gravity exists everywhere on earth, but we *would* say it’s not worth your time walking around with rocks to check. However, if you have some real cool new idea (such as gravity changes when you approach light speed), then that’s worth trying out and could change our notions about the absolute nature of gravity.

Scientific philosophy isn’t about encouraging us to throw up our hands and say “we can never really know *anything*.” It does encourage us to be strong sceptics and challenge hypotheses using *clever* ideas.

Settled is just a quick word to say that so many experiments and gedanken experiments have been done that your time is better spent on other things unless you really have a revolutionary idea.

BustedSoulO

The speed of light?
Temperature?
Weight?
Distance?
l guess if I thought a little harder here, (off the top of my head) I could come up with a few hundred thousand more tiny little tidbits of actually settled science… Ya know, all that stuff we rely on to help in the settling of all that science we’re still mulling over.

“wokism”? – Seriously? – Culture war BS? – Who’s self identifying as ignorant?

…whatever…

hopeoil

Was that established science when Foegele was healthy scratched multiple times earlier this season?

Redbird62

Edmonton traded Ethan Bear to the Carolina Hurricanes for Warren Foegele. Ethan Bear was healthy scratched by Carolina numerous times during the regular season last year and for all 14 of Carolina’s 2022 playoff games. They then managed to negotiate Bear down from a $2.5 million Q.O. that Bear could have signed to a $2.2 million one year deal. Subsequently, Bear was scratched for the first 7 games of the season, then traded to Vancouver for a 5th round draft choice and had to retain $400,000 of his salary.

How Bear does in Vancouver has no bearing on comparing whether Edmonton did better than Carolina in the trade. If Bear excels in Vancouver, then Vancouver would have won the trade with Carolina. Seems pretty clear, Edmonton has gotten and continues to get more value out the Foegele than Carolina did out of Bear. Maybe that 5th rounder ends up being equivalent to Ray Ferraro or Jamie Benn, but that is highly doubtful and would be mostly luck anyway. And we don’t know what the future holds for Foegele in Edmonton. Even if he gets traded sometime in the next season or two, if it brings back anything higher than a 5th rounder, that would cement that the Oilers got substantial more value out of the trade than Carolina.

W

Then it is settled, Foegele>Bear.

Redbird62

Maybe in your mind, but that’s not what my post says at all. I make no claim about Bear being better than Foegele other than comparing the value Edmonton has received from Foegele in his season and a half here vs the value Carolina received from Bear in his slightly over 1 season there plus the trade return from Vancouver. That’s a huge difference.

My post says the Edmonton has come out ahead of Carolina in the trade. That can be true even if Bear goes on to have a better career than Foegele, because Carolina will not be the beneficiary of a turnaround in Bear’s game.

The question of who won a trade is also different than the question of would Edmonton have been better off keeping Bear versus having Foegele join the team. Even if that might be the case, and we are a long way from knowing the answer to that question, where someone could argue this trade is potentially lose lose, then Edmonton will still have lost less than Carolina did, them having given up on Bear when they did.

OriginalPouzar

On 6, Woody has prioritized winning since very early on.

Recall when Skinner originally took over the net and Jack started like one game in three weeks.

Jack has never really regained the “#1 job” since then. Yes, he started a bunch of games when he had his one decent streak but that was partially due to Skinner having a baby (a week off skates), then the all-star game, then getting sick, etc.

Jack played well during that stretch but Skinner would have played more games, likely closer to an even split, if it wasn’t for circumstances.

Since November/December, Woody has had no issue running Skinner with the majority of games when he’s been the goalie player better, right?

Munny 2.0

Janmark was given a long shift at the end of the game to help close it out. Longer than anyone not a defenseman.

And who did Manwood have out there on D, closing out the game? Ekholm and Ceci. And they deserved it, despite the numbers.

The Sabres are where we were a couple of years ago. World class first line, sucky bottom 6. Our own top skaters struggled to a degree against theirs, and Skinner had to make some great saves. But our bottom 6 made hay. Plus McDavid. Story of the game.

OriginalPouzar

Dom’s model likes the Oilers post-deadline:

https://theathletic.com/4282608/2023/03/07/nhl-trade-deadline-stanley-cup-race/

Spoiler: Right there with Colorado in the west but an easier path though the playoffs.

Crazy Pedestrian

Hopefully the oilers can avoid having to play Minny. They the one team that makes me nervous. (since they have had the oilers number for a while)

Oddspell

Happy to see it, but I’ll always be confused by how Dom’s model is premised on meticulously picking apart a roster, while simultaneously omitting lineup mainstays like Klim Kostin and Vincent Desharnais.

oilinthepeg

Thankfully the two other teams with poor goaltending are also in our division!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

At what point does Skinner get some serious consideration for the Calder?

Munny 2.0

When his numbers are better than Thompson’s.

Elgin R

Pretty close right now and expect Skinner’s numbers to get better from here on in.

SS: 37 games / 2120 min / 2.86 gaa / .913 sv%
LT: 36 games / 2117 min / 2.66 gaa / .914 sv%

Harpers Hair

He already is but it’s Matty Beniers trophy to lose.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/odds-win-nhl-calder-trophy

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Which is interesting, because goaltending is a much more difficult position to master and of far greater impact to the overall success of the team.

OriginalPouzar

Wow – great draft 2017 has turned out to be, hasn’t it?

Consider Samorukov is now Kostin and Phil Kemp is 4RD in the org (and is leader and important player for the Condors with a chance to see some NHL games).

Even with Yamamoto’s ups and downs and inconsistent finishing and injury concern, today, he was a slam dunk win at 22 and, frankly, he’d go much higher in a re-draft of that first round.

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
Genjutsu

A top 6 winger.

Starting goaltender.

That’s pretty good right there.

Harpers Hair

That’s the draft where Dallas drafted Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson…3 All Stars.

Pretendergast

That’s the draft where Boston drafted Urho Vaakanainen, a guy with a long name.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan McLeod got the push to the top line and I thought he was excellent.

I thought he was good to but I think its important to note that he was switched with Foegle for the latter part of the game. Probably more to do with Foegele’s performance early in the game than anything negative on McLeod.

Mattias Janmark is playing well, 50 percent goal share and 1.49 points-60 over the last 10 games. I know many fans would prefer to see a younger player in this spot, but for me it seems every deep playoff run in Oilers history has involved a player just like Janmark.

I know that cool kids on twitter that coach and GM based on NST alone think he should never play again and blame Janmark for Puljujarvi not being an Oiler and Holloway not being a fully developed top 6 winger, etc., etc. but I think his reliability in this lineup is impactful. I do think he could/should be in the mix for the odd night off (along with Shore, Ryan, Kostin, etc.) when Kane (and Broberg) are in the lineup but he is “trusted vet” and that’s important.

As far as “younger player”, I wonder if his spot is Holloway’s next season – 3rd line winger LW? Janmark seems like the type of player Holland would re-sign but money will be at a premium going forward.

Nick Bjugstadt won all 10 of his faceoffs, incredible performance and I’m sure the league will find a way to punish the Oilers for it. Maybe send another pick to San Jose for Todd McLellan. I keep mixing him up with Vincent Desharnas,

Ha – I did the same last night few times as well. Having the two 6’6 guys wear 72 and 73 is something.

Devin Shore will never get much love from the math folks but in his last 8 games (he has played 8 of the last 10) he owns a 3.13 pts-60 total and is 5-1 goals. A hot streak for sure, but Shore is showing the way for guys like Tyler Benson and Noah Philp. Make yourself useful as well as ornamental!

Where are the screams towards Holland for that contract being 2-years now?

For the last few months either his cap hit has been off the books completely or he’s been providing value for it as a plug and play. Shit, for a week there, he was a plug and play with no cap hit on emergency recall.

Munny 2.0

That is bizarre thinking by the relevant Twitterati on Janmark.

Woodguy v2.0

Re: Math not liking Shore

When he’s with Ryan, it’s a boost to both.

Last 2 seasons:

Together 403 min

60% GF (!), 53% xGF

Shore apart 315 min

40% GF, 42% xGF

g

Ryan apart 912 min

46% GF, 53% xGF

Together they’re

Woodguy v2.0

Can’t edit above and it went wonky on my phone

Together they’re Great

Brantford Boy

If your math crashed your phone, I’ll take your word for it

Bruce McCurdy

I trust Woodguy’s math more than I trust Woodguy’s phone.

Munny 2.0

Lol, that looks like goaltending is the difference WG, and Ryan is raising Shore, not the synergy you’re describing. Possession numbers, shot numbers and chance numbers ALL bear this out too.

_______________

Hey, I thought someone was arbitrarily thumbing down all your comments just cause you’re you, yet here your posts are are green. Are you sure it wasn’t the substance of your comment that was getting downvoted before? And that it was nothing personal?

DevilsLettuce

You watch Ryan and Shore play together and don’t see the chemistry between the 2?

Munny 2.0

Too funny. Let’s try this…

You read things and come away with something completely different than what was stated or intended?

😛

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
W

HH is not awake yet.

Woodguy v2.0

Two things:

1) You’re right its mostly PDO driving the GF% to match the xGF%, but Ryan is the only player Shore doesn’t seem to drown with so I thought I’d mention it

2) When I post standings with no comments and they get down voted, its probably not content. When I reply “Thanks” to someone and it gets down voted its probably not content.

I find it funny because I post a few things, come back later to browse the thread and all my posts, regardless of content have one downvote.

You can keep doing it you want, it doesn’t bother me.

Munny 2.0

1) You’re right its mostly PDO driving the GF% to match the xGF%, but Ryan is the only player Shore doesn’t seem to drown with so I thought I’d mention it

Well, that’s a different thing than you were initially stating. This statement I would agree with, and would add that more of that effect is in this season.

Woodguy v2.0

That’s fair.

When LT posts stuff like “Devin Shore will never get much love from the math folks”, I try to find something nice to say about the player to be a dink.

Genjutsu

So you’re saying someone has a crush on you.

JimmyV1965

I like Foegle on the first line. He’s obviously not as fast as McLeod, but he’s a forechecking demon. Boston game will be interesting. Bruins are loaded. Bertuzzi is on the third line.

innercitysmytty

Bruins are loaded but until Hall is back Bertuzzi<<Hall makes them weaker than the were right before the Hall injury.

winchester

It seems that a lot of years teams that have been consistently good all season can run out of gas for the playoffs. Or they simply don’t have the next gear. That was the case with last years Flames with Sutter going to the whip to early, too often.

This years Bruins, they will bring that same game for playoffs, but Im hoping they wont bring that next gear, it will be someone else.

The thing that might make a difference for Boston, or provide next spark of energy, is their deadline pick ups and the return of Hall.

jp

FWIW, Dom and his model like the Oilers playoff chances lots.

https://theathletic.com/4282608/2023/03/07/nhl-trade-deadline-stanley-cup-race/

Gives the Oilers the best chance in the West of reaching the Finals, and of winning the Cup (by a slim margin over the Avalanche).

Oilers #3 overall behind Boston and Carolina.

defmn

🥸

Munny 2.0

Not sure if he’s right but gotta like his thinking.

Oilers are at mercy of their netminding this playoff year, but I suppose that’s true for all teams. Ullmark could revert to his last season’s performance in the first week of the playoffs, no one knows. TBL could get their act together, put the pedal down and lay waste in the East. Dally could make another run in this conference.

I like our odds, regardless.

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
Elgin R

Dom’s model for individual player contribution / pace maxes out at 5.0 (MVP). There are three players above 5.0 (range = 5.1 – 5.2) and then there is Connor at 7.2!

Coilers2021

Regardless of the modelling, the playoffs are always a different animal.

Injuries always enter into the equation, especially the deeper a team goes and my worry is that Edmonton doesn’t necessarily have the cover to help if/when that situation arises. Mind you, I don’t think a lot of teams have that cover so it evens out I suppose. It’s how the team responds which is important.

tsunami

funny, that’s probably why this wasn’t posted by HH 😉

Offside

The Oilers starting goalies will be earning a combined salary of 7.6 million. If Skinner is the starter for the next few years, is that figure a low enough amount that we can stop the Campbell buyout conversation?

Diablo

Yeah – they are going to have to give him a chance to get his game back next season. Maybe Campbell can get with the same goalie coach that fixed Dubnyk’s game.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Sean Burke.

He’s in MTL now.

W

The real solution is to trade with an added sweetener. It will be a painful sweetener, but with a flat cap and the window opening he has got to go.

jp

If he gets back to playing decently then yes it’s low enough I think.

I think the plan for he and Skinner was always closer to 1A/1B than to starter/backup.

Right now Campbell’s cap hit is tied for 14th-20th among goalies in the league. That rank will drop each year. Even today he’s being paid more like a 1A than a high end starter.

Of course he needs to get back to stopping pucks at some point. They will need to buy him out if this continues into next season.

Offside

Yeah, that is similar to my thinking. If Campbell becomes at least a decent backup then our Cap hit is not so egregious as to justify losing cap space via buyout. Wasted cap space is for teams like Arizona; not one currently in a window to compete for Stanley

defmn

If I recall correctly the consensus around here was that relying on Skinner as even the backup was the cause of considerable consternation amongst the majority.

My memory is that OP was really the only strong defender of Skinner as a legitimate backup with most wanting Campbell & another veteran.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

There were others, but not staunch defenders like the you two.

Basically anyone who advocated or agreed with the idea of a low cost veteran goalie the likes of Reimer or Allen to go with a test drive of Skinner.

Munny 2.0

There has never been consensus here on any topic, lol.

I don’t recall wanting anyone other than Skinner as backup.

I do recall almost this entire blog wanting Skinner anointed as starter last year when I was behind Manwood’s movement to “get Smitty going.” That’s about the only time I recall not being a Skinner advocate. Been a fan since his W days.

defmn

consensus

noun

con·​sen·​sus kən-ˈsen(t)-səs 
1
a : general agreement

b : the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned

=======================

Of course there were others but it was a pretty united front. I remember it because I caught a fair amount of flack for my stance that Skinner would be the starter by February regardless of who else they signed.

Of course I also said that with a full season Woodcroft would be able to fix Puljujarvi but that is a different topic so no need to mention it any further. 😎

Last edited 1 year ago by defmn
godot10

Er…excuse me.

There was a group of people, including me, who where arguing for only a stopgap signing to go with Skinner.

I suggested pursuing Allen. Others Reimer.

Last edited 1 year ago by godot10
defmn

Yes, that is why I said ‘majority’ and ‘consensus’. Not because everybody was against Skinner as a backup but because the majority were.

jp

I’d have described thoughts on goaltending last year (including Skinner) as more of two camps.

1) Oilers need stable goaltending. Pay for one of the best available (Kuemper, Campbell, Husso, trade for Gibson, etc).
2) Save cap space and get a stopgap. This for some combination of reasons: a) none of the available goalies were sure enough to commit to, b) goaltending is (always) voodoo, c) see what Skinner is before committing (options here included Reimer, Allen, Mike Smith returning).

In my recollection the main objection to Skinner as backup was if he was in tandem with Mike Smith, which would have assured him being starter half the year (in most folks eyes). To a lesser degree with the other options as well, but they should be decent at least if the only cover was the unproven Skinner.

I think most thought he could be backup, but we’re not at all comfortable with a situation where he was likely to end up as the guy. And here we are.

OriginalPouzar

I was in camp 2(c) but would note that I cited a comparison to post-draft development numbers with Husso as part of that reason. Skinner was ahead of Husso at every such stage (and while being younger at such stage) and was going in to “Husso’s pop season”.

It wasn’t just somewhat baseless hope with Skinner

JimmyV1965

It doesn’t matter how bad Campbell is this year. You have to play him next year – to start the season anyway. He can possibly bounce back and be useful in some capacity.

Woodley was on Gregor yesterday and said he doesn’t think Campbell has a sports psychologist. Every athlete would benefit from one, but it seems like a must for Campbell.

innercitysmytty

This is true, and if he doesn’t have a sports psychologist he should really invest in one.

Coilers2021

That is absolutely shocking.

I just heard a podcast where Doug Armstrong, GM of the Blues, stated that almost every team had a sports psychologist.

If Edmonton doesn’t employ one at this point, especially after the DoD, then that is on the organization to fix that problem ASAP. Unbelievable that any org that invests 83 million dollars into their players wouldn’t have one on their team.

thehelixfactor

Campbell isn’t good enough to provide back-up goaltending at any price, certainly not 5+M. A more consistent and reliable goaltender could be signed for ~1M any offseason so if you want more points in the standings next year you make the buy out.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

When the fourth line plays like a third line, and the third line plays like an effective second line, and the second line is a s good as any first line in the league, what does that make your first line?

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Not all exactly accurate but my goodness is *Edmonton’s offence* good.

Last edited 1 year ago by Chelios is a Dinosaur
JJS

It does highlight an interesting wrinkle with the 11-7 lineup – the 4th line doesn’t get to create a distinct identity as the centre is a double shifting McD or Drais. With a 12-6, the 4th gets to put on the hardhats and get to work

They looked great last night

maudite

Can you buyout then sign a player?

Buyout jack Campbell and sign him 1-2 year @ league min?

He’s got his money, give him a chance to rebuild career…some extra cap even if resigned on min.

Buyout savings
3.5 mill
3.9 mill
2.6
2.3
-1.5×4

*not overly serious about resign more curious if that actually is possible even.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
JJS

Create cap space and use it on the same player – sounds like a Chirelli strategy!!

Diablo

No

innercitysmytty

Except the Flames bought out Stone and then re-signed him the same off season a few years ago.

https://flamesnation.ca/news/amp/flames-re-sign-michael-stone-who-they-bought-out-last-month

Last edited 1 year ago by innercitysmytty
Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

if oilers did this they would have to give the flames a 3rd round draft pick

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

I commented to some friends last night regarding derek ryan.

I think outside of Mcd, Drat, and Nuge, this guy may just have the highest hockey IQ on the team.

He is always in position, and he makes so many little plays that are just brilliant. Tiny tips into the zone to negate an icing, a stop and pivot to create space, he anticipates plays very well so as to break them up, or create from them.

He is just a solid solid veteran who always brings his work boots to the rink.

Hard working, smart, supportive of teammates, and very productive in a 4th line role.

He is grossly underappreciated and i will be sad if kenny doesnt sign him to an extension this summer.

I also had an epiphany whilst watching the game last night.

There isnt really a player who woody isnt confident throwing over the boards now, it seems he threw over whichever line he felt like and all of the lines were rolling. It is all part of the wizardry that is bottom 6 outscoring by a signifigant margin this season under manwood!

Mcd and drat with under 20 mins of ice time. A thing of beauty as we rest them up for the boston/trono games and ultimately the many rounds of playoffs!!!

winchester

Ryan is tough too. He takes a lickin, you know the rest

Coilers2021

Entertaining game last night. Buffalo is a good team with a very bright future and I’m glad they’re in the east.

LT, I’m not sure if you’ve covered this in the last little while but are there other options for the oil in terms of finding and signing talent from the US College level. Some teams have had some success with that in the last number of years and I would be curious to know if you believed it could be an option.

OriginalPouzar

Well, I was pretty adamant before the game that it was a mistake to take Broberg out of the lineup and to (a) play both of Shore and Ryan and to go with 12D to scratch Broberg and (b) to play Deharnais over Broberg.

Well, that fourth line was unreal good in their minutes last night and Vinny with a solid bounce back night after a rough game.

I still think Broberg should play nightly but damn what a great problem the Oilers have.

I mean, they need to take one forward out of last night’s lineup for Kane and, if they want to go with 11/7 after Kane is back, that’s two forwards out.

How could one take Shore or Ryan out right now? I guess Kostin would be the first scratch but I thought he had an impact and is a presence. Janmark should be in the conversation but I think Woody really likes him and he is very reliable. Foegele is playing this best hockey as an Oiler.

I’ve heard and read some thoughts that McLeod could be in the conversation but I think that’s a non-starter and, on his pod, Rishaug said there was no chance (which I believe is right).

What a great problem to have.

Diablo

In the playoffs, it could be Yamo sitting, so that the Oilers can play a heavy game throughout the lineup. Foegele, Janmark and McLeod are all playing too well. Shore and Ryan could be scratches.

cowboy bill

Yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me if Yamamoto sits against the Bruins on Thursday, that is if Kane is ready to play.

Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill
OriginalPouzar

I don’t imagine Yamamoto sits on Thursday unless he’s not fit to play.

jp

As well as he’s played lately I’d have no qualms (like zero) in taking Shore out of the lineup whenever Kane is ready to go (and I think he’ll be the one to sit).

OriginalPouzar

I think that is right JP. He was impactful last night, that’s for sure, and was part of the team’s win, however, if Kane is back on Thursday, I would be just fine with Shore getting the night off.

Shit, from the finishing lines last night, they could plug Kane in for Foegele with McDavid and Foegele in for Shore on the fourth line – wow!

winchester

Shore has played better when he’s rested or motivated. After a wile it seems his performance fades. Its almost predictable now.

OriginalPouzar

Derek Ryan as well. He’s been quite susceptible to peaks and valleys as an Oiler – I don’t think there is any sort of motivation issues there but I do think that managing his load would be beneficial going forward.

cowboy bill

If it were up to me, I’d go with the 7 D-men & take Yamamoto & Shore out for Kane, against the Bruins.
But it’s not up to me.

SkatinginSand

Certainly much better than seeing Will Acton on the lineup card

OriginalPouzar

Come on now, lets be fair: In 2013/14, Will Acton outperformed his expected goal share of 38% with a real goal share of almost 42%.

Most common forward linemlted: Luke Gazdic followed by Matty Hendricks!

Shamus23

Yammy needed to bury that open cage chance. Good win. Skinner was brilliant, the D let far too many slot shots without keeping them more to the outside.
Good win on the road. Going to have to have a little better performance overall in Boston and especially by attempting to keep shots more to the outside.
McD is just Sick.