G70 2022-23: Oilers at Kraken

The Edmonton Oilers look good since the deadline. The team is 6-2-0 , with a five-on-five goal share of 58 percent (23-17). Edmonton’s goals-per-60 in the discipline (3.62) is No. 1 in the NHL in March. The goals-against-per-60 is No. 17 (2.67) and is No. 8 in the Pacific Division. That sounds tragic, but the Vegas Golden Knights (2.59) and Seattle Kraken (2.65) are in the same neighbourhood. If numbers matter, these Oilers look far better than the current standings suggest. Today is a great opportunity for a team like Edmonton to flex on a team that should be second best in this matchup. Ah, but that’s why they play the games. The Seattle Kraken took a year, but they’re bona fide.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Is Oilers defenceman Brett Kulak the odd man out this summer?
• Lowetide: Is Oilers AGM Brad Holland having an impact on trade success?
• DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
• Lowetide: Are the Oilers carrying too much youth to win the Stanley Cup?
• DNB and Dom: Why Connor McDavid should be the unanimous Hart Trophy winner — again
• Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
• DNB: Blunders hurt Oilers in loss to Maple Leafs
• Lowetide: Making the call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2023 RFAs
• DNB: The Oilers and Stuart Skinner can use their comeback over the Bruins as a springboard
• DNB: For new Oilers Mattias Ekholm and Nick Bjugstad, family matters most after a trade
• Lowetide: How unique is Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins career season?
• DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
• Lowetide: Oilers finally commit to Evan Bouchard. How much will it cost?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect Tyler Tullio is outplaying the high picks
• DNB: Why more vintage Kailer Yamamoto outings could solve Oilers’ right wing woes
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers spring signing season preview
• DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
• Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
• DNB: Inside Brad Holland’s scouting process
• Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
• At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
• March actual result: 6-2-0, 12 points in eight games
• February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
• January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
• December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 38-23-8, 84 points in 69 games

I will confess to surprise the club is 6-2-0 through this stretch of games. I had Edmonton starting the month 4-4-0 and then going 5-2-0 from here. If the March numbers are real, and the GA-60 at five-on-five is as good as advertised, I’m liking this team to push for the division title. Big game today.

THINGS I’M LOOKING FOR

One of the things I wish we could change about our discussions of players is the vitriol and negativity. The Oilers conversation online is rancid now. This blog was once safe haven, but we’re like all the rest these days. It would be nice to talk about Kailer Yamamoto as an NHL player who is struggling, instead of a useless piece of meat you have to stare at every evening. Yamamoto has overcome much and has given this organization productive seasons. His struggles this year are real, but that isn’t good reason to be most unkind.

So, today and moving forward, we’re turning back the clock at Lowetide. If you post something that is over the line, I will monitor your texts for one week (publishing them after review). That applies to all players, posters, hockey people, farm animals, banks, cafes, basically every subject one can think of and reasonably post here. Thanks.

Yamamoto’s sins are mostly from the ‘saw him good’ side of the ledger, as his stats over the last three years have been consistent if unspectacular.

For me, a rational and informed reaction to these numbers is Yamamoto has been consistent over these seasons. He plays with high skill and is never the feature winger, but the goal share is rock solid. His 5-on-5 goals-60 was No. 5 among the skill forwards last season (Nuge was at .44-60). This year his .66 goals-60 ranks No. 9 among forwards and still beats one of the feature players (Zach Hyman, .64-60).

Yamamoto’s lunch has been eaten, rapped in a paper bag, thrown in the trash and driven to the landfill this season. Men like Klim Kostin (1.33 goals-60), Warren Foegele (1.06-60), Derek Ryan (1.03-60), Ryan McLeod (.87-60) landed clear of No. 56. That doesn’t mean he is useless, it means he has struggled and may be dealt in the summer. If he is, the Oilers will get a solid return. Your opinion of Oilers players who are struggling is often so incorrect it cuts off conversation.

The point of this blog is to converse, make your case and in some cases defend it. The verbal on this blog has gone unchecked winterlong, too long. It ends today.

RECALLS

I was on with Jasons Gregor and Strudwick yesterday afternon, we got talking about recalls from the farm. It’s important for the Bakersfield Condors to keep playing deep into the spring, because the parent team may need a quick fix outside the roster. Who is playing well? Here are the prospect forwards since Christmas and their points-per-game.

• Raphael Lavoie 32 games, 19-14-33 (1.03)
• Dylan Holloway 1 game, 0-1-1 (1.00)
• Noah Philp 33 games 11-12-23 (.70)
• Tyler Tullio 30 games, 9-10-19 (.63)
• Xavier Bourgault 30 games, 5-11-16 (.53)
• Carter Savoie 19 games, 5-1-6 (.32)

Beyond Holloway, who is on the list because he’s in Bakersfield injured and cap hooped, I think Lavoie and Philp are the class of the group. Injuries have impacted the other three men and things can change. However, for me, Lavoie is the clear number one and I do think Philp has shown enough to get a look. Here are the team’s defensemen who are under contract and their even-strength goal differentials over the entire season.

• Phil Kemp 38-34 (52.8 pct)
• Markus Niemelainen 15-16 (48.4 pct)
• Jason Demers 33-39 (45.8 pct)

Our chat discussed who could be recalled if the Oilers current seven needed help. I think all three of us agreed Niemelainen would be the first recall, and I suggested Demers might be second in the queue but his foot speed would be the issue. I also said Phil Kemp might play in the NHL but I didn’t think he would thrive if called upon to play his first NHL games in the playoffs. I’ll say this: The numbers like Kemp.

TYLER BENSON

Benson has posted pedestian numbers (33 games, 5-15-20) this season in the AHL, and didn’t do enough when he did have the chance as an NHL player. It’s obvious he can pass and has vision, but his speed and shot are shy. What’s more, Ken Holland has done a good job of finding wingers who can outperform Benson. Here’s a three-year look at NHL numbers for LW’s, using five-on-five pts-60.

• Evander Kane: 2.3; 2.2; 1.95.
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 1.15; 1.46; 1.96
• Warren Foegele: 1.6; 1.38; 2.02
• Mattias Janmark: 1.14; 1.45; 1.43
• Dylan Holloway: 1.2
• Tyler Benson: .88; .5; 0

Benson could get the call, but it’s extremely likely Dylan Holloway is ahead of him on the depth chart as soon as the rookie is healthy. I would bet Holloway is one of the post-season recalls by Edmonton and he could see playoff action this spring. Other candidates include James Hamblin, Seth Griffith, Justin Bailey, Brad Malone.

NEXT NHL CONTRACTS

In the spirit of last year’s signings of Vincent Desharnais and James Hamblin to NHL deals, here are my target players for Oilers management this year. PS, I have zero idea if the organization is entertaining any signings.

• LD Alex Peters. He’s 26 and has just over 50 AHL games so far, but he’s an effective player in the AHL. He’s 6.04, 220 and plays a rugged game. Even-strength goal share through the roof.
• RW Dino Kambeitz. He’s 23, 6.02 and 210, doesn’t have enough offense to project as an NHL player. I don’t think they’ll sign him but can see the appeal if he gets a contract. Kind of Patrick Russell with no bat.

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER 2023-24

This is just dealing Kailer Yamamoto and Brett Kulak for picks and signing all of the important UFA and RFA players from the current group. Comes in with $20,000 to spare. I know the Oilers will make moves, but the Ekholm acquisition solves some things and (as I wrote in the piece up today at The Athletic about Brett Kulak) Philip Broberg is ready for an everyday role. The trade I’ve made in this model is in the RW overhaul. Yamamoto joins Puljujarvi heading out and the two trade pickups (Foegele and Kostin) replace them.