The long NHL season enters the final chapter, as April dawns and the warmth of the sun finally reaches Edmonton. It has been a fascinating season, and the late kick (24-7-7 since January 1) obscured the baffling early chapters (20-16-2). Where will the Oilers finish? Will Connor McDavid reach 156 points? Leon 50 goals? Nuge 50 points twice? The answers are straight ahead.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers post an incredible March with playoffs in sight
- DNB: The Oilers ‘found a way’ against the Kings
- Lowetide: How many more college players will the Oilers sign this spring?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
- DNB: How the Oilers’ playoff path looks rockier after loss to Golden Knights
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers re-sign trade deadline acquisition Nick Bjugstad?
- DNB: Why Edmonton Oilers and their star players believe Pride night is ‘important to celebrate’
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Zach Hyman and the Oilers’ ideal Connor McDavid line
- DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
- DNB: What I got wrong: Jack Campbell hasn’t given Oilers a goaltending upgrade
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- April prediction: 4-2-0, eight points in six games
- April results:
- March results: 12-2-1, 25 points in 15 games
- February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 44-23-9, 97 points in 76 games
If my prediction turns out, the Oilers would finish 48-25-9, 105 points. The last time the franchise won 105 standings points? The 1986-87 team, for my money the best team in history.
THAT WAS THEN, THIS WAS NOW
We’ve spent more than a decade waiting for the Oilers to combine big youth with quality veterans. Or, put another way, we’ve waited more than a decade for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to become the (soon-to-be) 30-year old center who can give the team important minutes while the young horses run free. Here’s the 2011-12 Oilers. Incredible compared to the current team. Listed are most common lines, and five-on-five pts-60 for the forwards, along with goal share five-on-five for the line.
- Taylor Hall 2.12; RNH 1.95; Jordan Eberle 3.04. Line had 59 percent goal share
- Various-Sam Gagner 1.94; Ales Hemsky 1.43. Duo had 54 percent goal share
- Ryan Smyth 1.71; Shawn Horcoff 0.89; Ryan Jones 1.4. Line had 44 percent goal share
- Ben Eager 1.47; Anton Lander 0.62; Lennart Petrell 0.84. Line had 33 percent goal share
You can actually see where the NHL players end and the heartache begins. This is Steve Tambellini’s team, he had fantastic youth and didn’t surround the team with useful and helpful pieces. That isn’t framing the issue, it isn’t re-writing history, it is a statement of fact. Now, let’s look at the current team.
- Nuge 2.13; Connor McDavid 2.7; Zach Hyman 2.38. Line has 59 percent goal share
- Evander Kane 2.07; Leon Draisaitl 2.39; Kailer Yamamoto 1.62. Line has 67 percent goal share
- Mattias Janmark 1.36; Nuge; Klim Kostin 2.01. Line has 60 percent goal share
- Warren Foegele 2.12; Ryan McLeod 1.83; others. Line has 47 percent goal share
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman. Line has a 66 percent goal share.
This is the current group. More depth, more quality, more experience marbled through the roster. Tambellini, Craig MacTavish and Peter Chiarelli all had a lash at making the roster more complete. Ken Holland has the roster closer to a Stanley. Edmonton may not win in the Connor McDavid era. Daryl Katz should have embraced analytics when Tyler Dellow worked for him, should hire the Puck IQ bunch today.
If this team doesn’t win, who knows what happens next? Holland was called out from unusual places before the deadline. That’s a tell. I have no proof, and have zero connection to this team, but this feels like a last chance Texaco. For someone. Whatever happens, Holland got them closer than anyone since Kevin Lowe in 2006. Can he get them to the promised land? It’s an all-in spring.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
Lavoie scored the winner and had an assist last night in a Bakersfield Condors win. For the season, his boxcars are 23-19-42 in 54 games. Ryan Holt, Condors play-by-play man, said on the broadcast “Lavoie is doing whatever he wants out there” and that’s what it looked like to me. His NHL eqivalency is 31.
With the 6-0 win, the Oilers jumped over a bunch of teams into 3rd in the league in goal differential (+52) behind only Boston (+116) and New Jersey (+55).
Daryl Katz should have embraced analytics when Tyler Dellow worked for him, should hire the Puck IQ bunch today.
Analytic back in the days agreeded Nikata, Fayne and even B Pouliot were good buys initially until they don’t work out. It is an ownership /management issue but less to do with the analytics than with arrogance.
McT won the job by adopting the impatient guy bold action party line, but got himself fred upon winning McDavid lottery and declared a development year ahead.
Doing something(winning/contenting the SC) with the high picks was the goal, but a team just doesn’t turn around from 3 lottery seasons in a row to a contender in a single season. Had they kept the old school coach Ralph who got them slow but steady progress they would probably be in a better place then gone with the bold shot matrix daring Eakins.
Good players were hard to come by, and it takes time for prospect to mature, but losing wear thin the players, management and the owners. There is a fine line between giving time for players to develop, and falling in love in one’s own roster and be blinded to the rest of the world. It took a dynasty class GM to finally fixed it.
IMO, at the end of the day the common sense approach of getting lots of end of roster players for PTO (and stopped handling jobs to incumbent 3rd/4th line players) was the one thing that Holland did differently at F compared to the GMs before, and that along with prioritizing getting very old very experienced Ds slowly evolve the team from bottom 3rd to player contender, to play off team, and finally SC contender.
Summarizing!
Lachance went 1+1 in a Phantoms win and was named 3rd star.
Wanner was held soupless but MJ won to take a 2-0 series lead to Lethbridge.
I had to pause and record the 3rd to put the kids to bed, accidentally recorded the Punjabi feed….EPIC goal call on Drais 50th….something something something GERMAN JUGGERNAUT!!!!
Holy canoli!
I haven’t missed many games this year, but due to family reasons, I didn’t watch this one.
Looks like a good outing to say the least!
Drai hits 50 and Soup with another shutout?
Helps finish the evening with something to smile about.
Stuart Skinner 25-14-5
Campbell 20-9-4
One is the Saviour the other is a bum a loser the Bully Mob will have to pause for a day are two. Piling on Captain Jack will cease-and desist!
One has been MUCH better than the other this season – end stop.
Yep.
Still rooting for both dudes.
Let’s go Oilers!
All this tells you is how good this team is, that they’ve been able to put on the jets and outscore Campbell’s epic bad save % this season to the tune of 20 wins (a handful, like one hand, orf great games like last night notwithstanding.
He’s also been getting the softer matchups for a while now.
Hyman is so well-spoken. That is all
His Mother was a mudder his father was a mudder.
Eats the slop. Born to slop.
Oilers Playoff Death March:
Rules:
1 – how many games do the Oilers win during these playoffs?
tie break
2 – how many points do Leon+Connor score combined?
tie break
3 – How many goals does Evander Kane score?
Hunter1909 plays Playoff “deathmarch”
1 – 16
2 – 57
3 – 12
13, 75, 15
Thank you.
1 -16
2 -70
3 – 10
1-16
2-83
3-15
Kenny is a good human. Perfect for Edmonton. I don’t live there anymore, but I am sentimental and have been back a lot in the last year. Love my hometown
I wear my Edmontonian and Albertan heritage proudly. I still think Kenny needs to go upstairs
Yumcmfvo
Really impressed with his response on the question about telling players that they have been traded.
Oilers now 1st in WC (and 3rd in league) in goal differential – I hear that’s a good thing…
Folks, Ken Holland sure as hell doesn’t sound insecure in his position. Giving lots of credit to Chiarelli for the players he drafted and brought in (and that Holland inherited). Holland significantly deferring credit from himself on where the team is today. Honestly, it’s something you don’t see too often.
Hard to argue with what’s he’s done here.
Make the playoffs every year.
Incremental improvements every year.
Currently icing the best team that’s played since Wayne was still here.
Holland knows how not to say anything important
Gives kudos to Barrie scoring the goal in Game 6 against LA. That’s a general manager, people. And allows himself to be recorded trading him.
He’s on another level
yeah, that video was eye opening
Decent human
Likes attention
Doesn’t take credit unwarranted. See left. He inherited the giants
.
Fun game – happy for Campbell. Woodcroft has been pulling all the right levers at all the right time. Leon is a one of the greats and Ekholm is just a beast.
Full credit to Campbell. Not just for the shutout but also for a stellar first period when his team wasn’t quite so stellar.
Feel a bit sorry for the Ducks goaltenders for having to face 40+ shots a night.
And why does Eakins still have an NHL job?
What better way to get Bedard than having ‘The Swarm’ as your head coach.
They needed a coach that could get them to the bottom. He’s close, but no cigar.
Ekholm is now +18 in 16 games.
The team-building that Jay is investing in is going to wreck a lotta shit
Perfect video of Connor and Drai on the bench after the Anaheim win. Wish I was recording
Four 80 pt scorers. When is the last time that has been done?
Where would Kane have landed in a full season?
Happy for Campbell
Ekholm, what a beast. Nurse stepping up as well.
Back to back shutouts.
Great effort all around
Fuck yeah Cambell! He’s had a rough season, love seeing the SO.
ZERO high danger chances allowed by the Oilers at 5v5 over the last two periods.
Thanks for pointing that out. My goodness.
You can see how big a deal that shutout is… for the team and Campbell
Good for Jack Campbell with the shutout.
Yeah, lots going on tonight, but I’m definitely most happy for Jack Campbell posting a SO.
2 in a row for the team too. Pretty nice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjtJ4AZuKlE
Lol
That made me laugh.
A tip o’ the hat, sir.
Want to know what championship level hockey looks like? The last 3 games.
Attaboy Jack.
Peak Leon tonight. What a performance.
If Campbell keeps these shutouts up, that will add some confidence going into the playoffs.
back to back shut outs
goalie problem..?
what goalie problem..?
Well done Jack.
Well done Oilers!
Fuckin A. Back-to-back shutouts, one for each goalie. So awesome. And great for Soup’s confidence
PP should seal the deal for Soup.
Anyone else concerned we haven’t seen Nurse since he took that puck on the hand?
EDIT: He’s now out there.
Draisaitl passes are sick tonight too. So easy to miss with the hat trick and 50 goals. Just wow.
Kings and Vegas wins are final so no change at the top of the division
a SEA loss and a NSH win in the mix at the bottom of the standings
Leon has his thing Connor. So has Evander. Now go get yours
Goals and points
Don’t disappoint me!!!
Olivier Rodrigue stops 27 of 28 as the Condors win 2-1.
I think that’s 75 of his last 78 in three games.
Zombies are cool
Oilers are cool
I believe there is a level of elite skill that will infect a team like a zombie virus. I’ve seen it before. I think it has happened again
Oiler Zombies
Me like
Brains!!!! 🧟
I apologize for making a positive comment about the team the blog is about
ymmvycfo
Lotta fun on the bench for Draisaitl, Kane and the trainers. So good to see.
Leon may just go down as a GOAT
Not a chance of that
Got a kid who plays hockey? Show him that shot.
A thing of absolute beauty.
The stat I keep talking about – this is historic:
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
53s
Draisaitl hat trick for his 50th of the season.
He is only 12th player in NHL history to have three seasons with 50 goals and 50 assists.
I think someone just told him that on the bench
Pretty unlikely he didn’t know
the parlay? I doubt that
I only count 10 others. Who is this mysterious 11th man?
https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?aggregate=0&reportType=season&seasonFrom=19401941&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&filter=assists,gte,50&filter=goals,gte,50&sort=a_skaterFullName&page=2&pageSize=50
Please, can someone enlighten me?
Mike Bossy
Marcel Dionne
Phil Esposito
Wayne Gretzky
Jaromir Jagr
Jari Kurri
Guy Lafleur
Mario Lemieux
Alex Ovechkin
Steve Yzerman
Leon Draisaitl
Yeah, Leon is the 11th, I’m not seeing another.
What a damn list regardless.
A laser from Leon!!!
I yelled. Hawaii five-oh for Drai
50 for King Leon.
Nice pass by Ekholm.
A hatty for 50 – a SH BEAUTY!
Somebody told him it was an Oil powerplay so to go score haha
Nice goal, Leon. He wasn’t saving the universe but still, very pretty.
That’s just, like, your opinion, man
A nifty fifty for Leon!!!!
woooooot!!!!!!!!!!!
50 it came!
NURSE!
A legit #1 d-man in the NHL.
Name 32 more valuable d-men…..
Great couple touches by Kostin and Shore there. Wow. This team is really flying lately.