Crosseyed and Painless

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are 27-7-7 since January 1 and fans are warming to the idea this year’s model might just have the magic. Not everyone, there are some who aren’t convinced, but that’s okay because luck and injury will have their say and that my friend can make you miserable in a heartbeat. The Oilers best players will deliver, but who is this year’s Pisani?

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL

  • At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • April prediction: 4-2-0, eight points in six games
  • April results: 3-0-0, six points in three games
  • March results: 12-2-1, 25 points in 15 games
  • February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
  • January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 47-23-9, 103 points in 79 games

Edmonton could win out and still not finish first, but this remains a fun trip through the early months of 2023. It looks like the Kings are falling back now, so if it’s second place and Los Angeles in the first round again, let it be. Edmonton enters the postseason in a strong position.

JASON DEMERS RECALL

Cody Ceci won’t be at the game Saturday, so the Oilers recalled Jason Demers from the Bakersfield Condors. Demers is an NHL veteran, a man who has 699 NHL games on his resume and is about to find No. 700 and that’s a fine thing. Demers has been a good soldier for the organization this season, playing tough minutes and often with inexperienced or borderline partners. That said, his even-strength goal share in the AHL suggests the veteran played the league over par this season.

I’m not sure what to expect, but applaud the move for two reasons. First, he definitely helped the youth on this team, and second this kind of thing tends to help in team building. I imagine the Oilers players will rally around the veteran, and the Condors players will be thrilled. Not having Ceci is less than ideal, but calling up Demers is a good decision on several levels. There’s also this: What if he plays well? It’s a long journey, these NHL playoffs. You never know.

CROSSEYED AND PAINLESS

Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don’t do what I want them to

One of the things we’re going to have to discuss, should it happen, is the credit that should be doled out in the Oilers sixth Stanley Cup championship. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the top end, and also the role players who have played well and the department of youth that has filled holes (Stuart Skinner!) seemingly on demand. The credit given to Jay Woodcroft and his coaching staff should be universal, and I do think the scouts should get tons of credit. The love headed Ken Holland’s way will be measured by a vernier caliper but I will argue that he’s done much and should be credited.

We’ll leave it for today, that will be the blood sport of summer, but any conclusion must include the major errors and the significant building blocks. Everything must be placed in context, and done rationally. Even then, ‘fake news’ and ‘alternative reality’ and ‘apologist’ slings and arrows will fly. Same as it ever was. I was thinking about this fracture in the Oilers fan/observation base (I do think this specific fan base has elevated to something higher, bloody but higher) and the lyrics to crosseyed and painless came drifting through. I laughed. The brain is a fine thing.

ROOKIE FORWARDS FIVE-ON-FIVE PER 60

The Oilers have graduated many talented forwards to the NHL over the years. Many were given opportunity as rookies, and a bunch performed well. I wanted to put the Oilers rookie forwards over the last 12 years on a line, to see if we can spot the point when rookies no longer received first-line minutes. We must alter our sights and expectations due to opportunity. However, five-on-five does a good job of evening things out. Here’s the list, 2010 to today.

  1. Connor McDavid 2015-16 (2.73)
  2. Nail Yakupov 2012-13 (2.14)
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011-12 (1.95)
  4. Mark Arcobello 2013-14 (1.82)
  5. Jordan Eberle 2010-11 (1.82)
  6. Linus Omark 2010-11 (1.73)
  7. Taylor Hall 2010-11 (1.57)
  8. Jesse Puljujarvi 2016-17 (1.45)
  9. Teemu Hartikainen 2011-12 (1.37)
  10. Anton Slepyshev 2016-17 (1.34)
  11. Magnus Paajarvi 2010-11 (1.32)
  12. Ryan McLeod 2021-22 (1.29)
  13. Dylan Holloway 2022-23 (1.20)
  14. Iiro Pakarinen 2015-16 (1.15)
  15. Drake Caggiula 2016-17 (1.13)
  16. Leon Draisaitl 2014-15 (1.05)
  17. Jujhar Khaira 2015-16 (0.78)
  18. Tyler Pitlick 2013-14 (0.67)
  19. Anton Lander 2011-12 (0.62)
  20. Luke Gazdic 2013-14 (0.62)
  21. Kailer Yamamoto 2017-18 (0.50)
  22. Tyler Benson 2021-22 (0.50)

It’s interesting to look back and see who performed well as a rookie and didn’t make it (Yakupov, Omark) and note they were European players. I’m not sure the Oilers, in this era, have Europe figured out in terms of draft and development. Hopefully the Ken Holland era straightens that out, they sure do draft Russians.

It’s also fascinating to note the gap in rookie forwards who moved the needle at all in the middle to end of the last decade. Finally, when looking at McLeod and Holloway, I do wonder if their numbers would be higher on the list if they had arrived in 2011. I know the answer is yes, but how does that inform us in terms of evaluation? Is McLeod, or Holloway, the offensive equal of the group on a higher plane above? I don’t know. Would love to hear your opinion.

SKYLER BRIND’AMOUR

Quinnipiac is in the final tomorrow, and then we’ll see. My own opinion is the Oilers have a real chance to sign their draft pick, and his shutdown center resume will fit well in the organizational depth chart. We wait.

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GordieHoweHatTrick

Maybe Kostin + Janmark = Pisani

Tarkus

Summarizing!

Petrov had a troika of assists along with 6 SOG in NB’s win to take a 3-2 series lead. He was also named 3rd star. He now has nine points–all assists–in these playoffs.

Lachance picked up two assists in their OT win.

Chiasson was held off the scoresheet, but the Blades prevailed to take a 3-2 series lead.

dunterpunter

is anyone here against EK65 getting the norris?

€√¥£€^$

He should win, I’ve lost 2 EPIC posts explaining why (in fact my best writing ever- not a single typo 😀, cursed phone). Needless to say leading a team in scoring by 36 points is historic for a Dman. As is hitting 100 points and leading the league in even strength points.

He should be first on every single ballot, but bias always wins the day when it comes to these things.

Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
Spartacus

The Norris doesn’t know what kind of trophy it is.

I’m with Gretzky, there needs to be a trophy for offence from defensemen along with another trophy – the Norris? – for defence.

Redbird62

It is ironic that they initially created the Selke for defensive acumen by forwards (arguably created so they could give an award to Bob Gainey for what he was doing). Then over the years it has morphed into a two-way award where offensive output is an important factor in who gets votes. Kris Draper back in 03/04 was the last mostly defensive focused forward to win it.

OriginalPouzar

Kemp headmans the puck to Philp, kind of a mini 2-2- but his pass to Holloway is blocked but it goes to the trailer, Phill Kemp, who give the Condors the 3-0 lead with a ripper.

jp

The Condors pumping 3 goals on 12 shots past Vegas’ potential game 1 starter is pretty solid 🙂

Sounds like Holloway is gearing up for his return too. He’s not my first choice for this years Pisani, but he’s not my last either.

OriginalPouzar

Condors have given all three back – yech.

Do you think they will call Holloway up before the Condors are done (without NHL level injuries)?

jp

And a 4th now. 2nd period as rough as the 1st was good.

Not at all sure on Holloway. I think he’s ‘part of the team’, but maybe they do keep him in Bakersfield unitl the Condors are done.

Kostin is looking good. If McLeod is healthy then it’s hard to see how Holloway would get in the lineup. I think he’s ahead of Shore, but if he’s not going to be in the lineup then I guess likely they will keep him playing in Bakersfield until/unless he’s needed.

Boil-in-the-Oil

There has been much discussion and speculation as to who might surface as this year’s Pisani. I remember that year in the playoffs quite well…swollen with pride. Pisani was such a pleasant surprise, producing timely offense and building huge fan excitement.

I would like to know how you would define the traits or roots or style or skills, of a “Pisani type” player.

Cheers.

jp

Unexpectedly scoring a bunch of important goals would be by far the most important trait, I believe.

Redbird62

Based on how remarkable what Pisani did in ’06 was, the odds of any player on any team cropping up in the Pisani mode would seem to be quite low. For a 30 year old, playing in only his 3rd NHL season (would have been 4th if not for the 04/05 lock out) as a 3rd line winger, going from 18 goals in 80 regular season games to 14 goals in 24 playoffs games was a tremendous accomplishment. In the salary cap era, 14 goals or more in one playoff season has only been accomplished by 11 players and the rest are all known for their scoring prowess. Perusing all the top playoff goal scorers since 2006, to find a possible comp, you’d have to go down the list to 47th with R.J. Umberger with the Flyers getting 10 goals in the ’08 playoffs after 13 goals in the regular season.

Even if you look at points, there are very few relative unknown players who suddenly surged to near he top of their team’s individual points totals for a long playoff run. (Ville Leino also with the Flyers in 2010 being one notable exception – the coincidence there – he played half the playoffs with Pronger as his D partner – and he managed 21 points in 19 games – a huge outlier for his career).

Every winning team or team that goes on a long run to the final has some relatively unheralded players who make bigger than expected contributions to get them there, but the Pisani ’06 story seems to be in rarified air based on my cursory review of playoff stats.

The good news however is, most teams that have won or gotten to the cup final did so without having someone over achieve in scoring to some unbelievable level. So the Oilers don’t need someone to go full Pisani to have a shot (but it sure wouldn’t hurt).

My guess on who could be the player to make outsized contributions this year if there is one would be Warren Foegele, particularly if he can up his cash in rate on the chances he gets.

Reja

Where’s John Druce at 25 years-old he scored 8 Goals in 45 games in the regular season hit paydirt in the 1990 Playoffs scoring 14 Goals in 15 playoff games. From what I remember he signed a juicy contract the following year having had the grand total of 16 Goals and 10 assists in 93 career regular season games.

jp

It’s in 1990. As Redbird said “Perusing all the top playoff goal scorers since 2006“.

Druce’s run was legendary, as was Pisani’s. 33 and 17 years ago.

That right there is really good illustration of how damn rare that sort of playoff run is.

Let’s hope another Oiler pulls something like that off this year, but no one should be counting on it.

Reja

I read up on him and I never knew the difficult time he went through with his daughter’s illness. He sounds like quite the man Godspeed on this Good Friday Mr.Druce.

prefonmich

I think the Klim Reaper would be the perfect Pisano of this years coming playoffs. Defined mostly by big goals when you need them and the big guns are being checked and held and hooked into submission. Although Pisani scored a HUGE shortie if I remember correctly and Kostin doesn’t kill penalties.

Buddy

Pisani scored the greatest short-handed goal in the history of short-handed goals.

Reja

No question about the Pisani snipe. Honourable mention to Gretzky SH rocket over Vernon shoulder in game 2 of OT in the 1988 Smythe Final.

Lewis Grant

It’s pretty wild that perhaps the two greatest goals in Oiler history were scored short-handed.

Also, that the third greatest was scored by Kevin McClelland.

Boil-in-the-Oil

Ya, I agree that Kostin could outperform expectations, and I would even add Foegel to the group. Both are big and relatively well skilled, and both “go to the net”, fearlessly. That agression, when under control (no penalties please) produces high quality chances, hopefully resulting with puck in net.

AsiaOil

Seem to remember Foegle coming up big for Carolina in the playoffs in the past.

OriginalPouzar

Hamblin win the PP draw, a few passes, point to Holloway at the left circle and beats Hill clean for his second goal in the first 7 minutes.

OriginalPouzar

Holloway takes the puck at the blue line on the re-entry, beats the d-man wide, cuts and beasts Hill short side for the 1-0 lead

OriginalPouzar

Adam Brubacher replaces Demers – Condors defence is, well, some kinda thin.

Aidan Hill got sent down on a conditioning stint and will play tonight.

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
kinger_OIL

— I agree that it’s fun to see fans warming up to the possibility that this team is legit

— It was surprising to be downvoted so much when a few months ago I offered that “this was the first time I can recall since they were winning cups that this late into the season it would not be a “surprise” if they won the Cup”.

— If they did win the cup it’s still 80% all world McD and “2nd wheel” Drai. They need to be the best players in the playoffs for the team to win. Else the rest details.

— That’s not a criticism: all the teams that win cups have incredible individual player performances.

Tarkus

Lachance draws a helper as Youngstown opens the scoring five minutes into the first.

Petrov picks up an aPPle less than 90 seconds in for the icebreaker.

Last edited 1 year ago by Tarkus
Tarkus

Two more assists for Petrov as NB opens up a 4-0 lead in the second.

Tarkus

Despite getting bounced by Skyler, Son of Rod and Quinnipiac last night, Adam Fantilli can take solace in winning the Hobey Baker Award.

Fantilli becomes only the third freshman to win the award, joining Jack Eichel and Paul Kariya.

Ryan

Lt, Dom wrote a twitter post explaining that his latest player valuation calculations have a glitch that results in overvaluing lower and middle tier players.

https://mobile.twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1642971227743559681

https://theathletic.com/4385238/2023/04/07/kailer-yamamoto-oilers-playoffs/

Yamamoto isn’t with $5.4m this season.

Harpers Hair

He still has Bouchard at $9.5 million.

leadfarmer

Would you care to dig up all of your Bouchard posts over the last 4 years for us?

Harpers Hair

No need.

I always thought his upside was a second pairing D.

Still do.

Side

You reminded me of this gem:

“Harpers Hair
Reply to Faustkarz
March 23, 2021 8:09 pm
Ty Smith..drafted 17th overall in 2018 played 23:30 tonight (2nd among Devils D) in a 4-3 win over the Flyers.

He now has 17 points in 30 games which pro-rates to 45 points in an 82 game season.

He’s 6 months younger than Bouchard.

Do you think the Devils are screwing up his development?”

Fast forward:

“Harpers Hair
 October 10, 2022 10:15 am
Interesting that Pittsburgh has Ty Smith on waivers.
A big fall for a Lowetide favourite who had a great start to his career in New Jersey.”

I like how you called him a “Lowetide favourite” without mentioning he was one of your favourites, given how much you would pump Ty Smith’s tires over “not an NHL defenseman” Bouchard.

Classic.

Last edited 1 year ago by Side
Side

Also this gem:

“Harpers Hair
 Reply to  John Chambers
 December 11, 2022 5:03 pm

If Bouchard is a sure fire #2D then Chychrun is a sure fire #1D.
Why would Arizona take a bad contract in return for a downgrade?”

Kinda odd for one to say they always thought that a player’s upside was a 2nd pairing D and then.. well.. balk at the thought of it?

maudite

This made me laugh way harder than it should have.

leadfarmer

Ekholm is over 11. His system has gone rogue

Harpers Hair

Yep.

Consider this.

Player A: 6 goals 30 assists 36 points

Player B: 6 goals 29 assists 35 points

Both players are considered offensive defensemen and both play on high scoring teams. Both have defensive warts.

Dom’s model :

Player A: $9.5 million

Player B: $4.1 million

leadfarmer

Difference between 97% in offensive skills vs 16% might lead you to your answer

Reja

Hopefully he has a good playoff are else he may be unmovable unless Holland adds a sweetener like the Kassian deal. Foegele on the other hand will have takers regardless of his playoff performance in my opinion.

AsiaOil

He’s only 24 and a recent 20 goal guy with only a year left on his current contract. No sweeteners will be required.

Contending teams are willing to overpay at the deadline to try make a playoff run – borderline teams are willing to pay in the summer to get guys who can help push them over the line to the playoffs. Yamo’s contract and performance is right in the wheelhouse of a team like DET who wants to take the next step. Sign Connor Brown on a cheap one year base salary deal full of bonuses to replace Yamo and Bob’s your uncle.

The NHL middle class is being decimated by the cap on any good team. Colorado’s roster makeup is the same as the Oilers.

Last edited 1 year ago by AsiaOil
jp

LT, I just got to reading the Yamamoto piece.

You mentioned he needed to score 20 goals again as he did last year.

He obviously did not, but just wanted to mention that since returning from his first IR stint his boxcars are 42 10-11-21.

That’s 19.5 goals/82, so I really do think he’s back to what he was (and that that’s worth $3.1M).

We will see though what the playoffs and summer hold.

Redbird62

Fingers crossed that the league and the NHLPA can work out an arrangement to increase the cap for next season by more than $1 million even if the player debt from the last 2 seasons is not fully repaid. The idea was floated by the league that it could increase by as much as $3.5 million if the sides can agree on a few concessions in exchange.

The Oilers more than a lot of teams would benefit greatly from that. That might be enough that the offseason decisions on Yamamoto, Foegele and Kulak could be made more based on having the better players and not on a complete cap squeeze.

Certainly teams like Colorado and Calgary could benefit maybe as much as the Oilers based on their cap situations for next season (though an extra $2.5 million won’t be near enough for Calgary to overcome paying Huberdeau, Kadri, Coleman and Weegar a combined $29 million next season).

Last edited 1 year ago by Redbird62
OriginalPouzar

The latest accounts I heard is that the owners would want to increase escrow and that’s a non-starter for the players.

Redbird62

The NHL has clearly thrown out a trial balloon on discussing the cap. Everything being said now is pre-negotiation posturing. Maybe they won’t come to agreement or even get into serious negotiations on the issue, but nobody’s final positions on anything are currently known to the public.

OriginalPouzar

Of course not but the latest accounts are the latest accounts.

jp

Yes, no question all three of the remaining “$3M men” are vulnerable this summer, and some new opportunities will open up for Kostin, Holloway and Lavoie by next season.

Shamus23

Be nice if they were going to trade him to Seattle to try and pry 6.4/212lb RW. (Left shot) Jani Nyman (49th pick overall last year ) in the deal. Kid can snipe and skate.

Redbird62

That level of error has to be pretty embarrassing for Dom and the Athletic. That they could go to print with so many players so out of whack would not appear to be a good reflection on how well they understand what they are doing.

I worked extensively with modelling throughout my career including running several departments that did substantial modelling. My mantra for myself and for my staff was the model(s) do not provide the answers, the answer is owned by the operator/modeler and they better be able to understand all the answers. Models are nothing more than tools. If the answer being spit out by a model didn’t make intuitive sense, it was worth auditing the inputs and calculations.

How nobody looked at all the very high numbers that were being produced by the models did not raise any red flags before they ever went to print is startling. Would anyone look at Yamamoto’s value at $5.4 million and go: “Gee sounds about right?”. And this happened with a whole raft of players (dozens and dozens if not hundreds).

How did any of them look at these results and then publish them? It is not just the model that screwed up. Anyone involved in the publishing of that information screwed up as well. Makes you wonder if they really know what they are doing when they can overlook that many egregious errors and not notice till well after sending it out to the public.

jp

Would anyone look at Yamamoto’s value at $5.4 million and go: “Gee sounds about right?”.

I can’t recall the number but I thought he was pretty high (over $4M) prior to this update/glitch.

I’d noticed Foegele, Yamamoto, McLeod, Janmark and others all creeping up to pretty high values recently.

That may have been a legitimate fault in the model (ie – over-valuing on ice results from players on good teams), but I don’t think these new numbers are *that radically off from the previous/non-glitch ones.

Edit: guess we’ll see if nice Dom updates with the ‘correct’ numbers.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
maudite

Kulak was 5.3 million

jp

I can’t defend the model, I’m just saying the numbers haven’t doubled or anything crazy like that.

I’m quite certain Yamamoto was at least over $3.1M before this last update, for instance.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
Scungilli Slushy

This is my problem with these models. I like Kulak but I don’t see him worth what he gets let alone more. Teams cannot pay third pairing D almost 3M and not have other holes. Kulak has never established as higher than third pair and he’s not young

If the model worked it would find some players playing above their roll and pay, but not tons of guys. It should probably also account for where a player is in their career and previous contracts. Eg. MacKinnon was signed at the right level and while a deal at 6 toward the end of that one it really was about contract status and age. Now he’s expensive and maybe half way through not, again

The cap says you can’t pay bottom players Kulak dollars without a big increase. The number goes up per role, but the proportion will stay the same or thereabouts. Really the best players are underpaid proportionally in the NHL

I don’t care how old a player is or how good a guy. The lowest paid player makes a lot of ‘real world’ money, no need for our pity. It has to be all about contribution (can be more than just points), consistency and what proportion the cap will allow for essentially QoC

Redbird62

In total, the current cards for the Oilers show total a surplus value of over $50 million. Even some of the higher end players are way off. He has Zack Hyman at a market value of $13.9 million for this season. If the excuse on that one having an error is Hyman is ordinarily a middle tier player, then they have even more problems.

And how does the math work that Campbell has a deficit value of -$10 million? Based on how it is presented, the cards compare the current annual cap hit to the market value, which is shown as a single year value (not the surplus value over the life of the contract), then Campbell at most should only be -$5 million.

Even some factual information on the cards have errors. One example would be the card for Kane showing his cap hit at $7 million. His voided contract from San Jose has no basis for being used in 2022/23.

jp

In total, the current cards for the Oilers show total a surplus value of over $50 million.

That’s kind of how the model works though. Players on good teams get overvalued based on strong on ice numbers, and players on bad teams get undervalued.

And it’s further exaggerated with whatever the mistake was in this last iteration.

Campbell has considerable negative value because he’s been way below average and has thus cost his team wins/goals.

If you look (or looked prior to this glitch) at bad teams like the Ducks you see that most of the players have negative value.

So I think (though never actually put the effort in to check across all teams) that the league wide numbers do actually add up and make sense.

At the same time that pumping or burying players on good/bad teams based on on ice results is IMO the biggest weakness of the model. That results in players on good teams like the Oilers being arguably overvalued.

That’s my understanding of it anyway.

Scungilli Slushy

Most fans (and some GMs) base player value on team strength, no need for all that work to get the same thing wrong. Makes it useless really

leadfarmer

Ok but let’s take Florida panthers, about as middle of the road team in standings as they come.
add up all the numbers and you get 130 million!!

leadfarmer

or the Calgary flames at 117 million!!

leadfarmer

Boston Bruins at 185 million.
does anyone check his math?

Redbird62

Well they have already admitted the numbers the model spit out are wrong and overstated, but they haven’t been able to fix it yet. I would be surprised if they publish that type of data on a subscription press like website without reviewing it, but I would be more stunned if they did review it, and green lit it for publishing without noticing what seem to be obvious major errors. Thus the reason for my original post that they should really be embarrassed by this.

jp

Well the Panthers have really good 5v5 results and underlying numbers so they’re exactly the kind of team that you’d expect to have inflated projections.

By Dom’s own admission his numbers are out of whack right now so this would be even more exaggerated at the moment.

You’ve been mentioning the numbers are inflated since last season and I agreed with you initially (based on the Oilers and a few other teams). But when I looked a bit more earlier this season many of the bad teams had had super low projected payrolls that looked like they’d even out the big ones. By eye I think the model at least spit out numbers that made sense across the league (setting aside how accurate the individual projections are).

Let’s have a look at more of the good/bad teams next week assuming Dom updates (there’s really no point now if the numbers don’t say what they’re supposed to based on the model).

Redbird62

I fully understand the model’s concept. Most teams are spending at or near the cap. Teams winning more than the league average are getting more bang for their buck than teams recording below league average results. Based on how he runs his model, he also tries to take luck out of the equation, so the results are adjusted if a team is losing because of a bad PDO or a good PDO (well he is really using expected results instead of actual results,(don’t get me started on the problems with this theory being applied).

Even with that thought process, there is no way the Oilers, currently sitting with the 7th best winning percentage, which is .652 vs a league medium number of .563 (a difference of 15% (.652/.563), in aggregate are out performing their salary by over 55% ($140 million total value divided by $82.5 if Leadfarmer’s totals are correct). That is catastrophically off base, not a minor error that anyone who looked at these numbers should easily overlook (and these people look at these numbers probably every day, its a big part of their job).

A quick scan of Bruin’s cards shows values totaling over $190 million dollars. They are having a great year, but that would be a ridiculous total if that was only slightly above what the model was meant to show. Clearly there appear to be big errors in what the model is spitting out, and the corrections are likely to be significant. Comparatively speaking the ordering of the values of the team are okay, but their claim has been that they are trying to get to reasonable estimates of player values.

And back to Campbell. The card lists his contract value at $5 million, his market value at league minimum, and his surplus value at -$10 million. I get that surplus values are going to be negative, but I don’t think his model was intended to say that the players absolute value to the team was negative. If he is worth league minimum, his surplus value should be -4,250,000. (Market value less league minimum). If the model, when working properly actually says that his absolute value is -$ 5 million (Market value of -$5,000,000 less his salary of +$5 million = surplus value of -$10,000,000) that is implying not only would the Oilers be better off having goalie worth only the league minimum playing at $750.00, but they could run with a cap of $77.5 and be just as well off (put another way, the team would be in the same spot by having a $750,000 goalie plus no Hyman, than having Campbell at his current salary.

Looking at Anaheim’s negative values, the total on the current cards would suggest based on their math, collectively the Ducks players should be paying $30 million to play in the NHL instead of collecting their current salaries of $70 million. That is a ridiculous result.

jp

Dom fucked up in the latest projections. AND the model is flawed/imperfect even without that.

I don’t think it’s useful to discuss the exact current numbers too much since any flaws in the model are exaggerated by whatever Dom has acknowledged went wrong in the last iteration.

My initial comment was simply trying to point out that Yamamoto and a number of the Oilers bottom 6 players were showing surprisingly well even before Dom’s fuckup.

I’ve assumed that Campbell’s negative number indicates he’s been below replacement level, and thus has actually hurt the team even relative to an average replacement level goalie. There are lots of negative value players around on various teams even though they’re listed as ‘league minimum’ market value (which would make some sense since it’s not possible to pay any player less than that – similar to how McDavid is ‘league max’ rather than $20.8M).

I think that those negative numbers are included in the league wide calculations so that the total does in fact make ‘sense’ (ie – equals the total cap spent or available).

If the negative numbers are included then the Ducks roster is actually worth only $6.9M total using the current wonky numbers (and the Oilers are at about $135M instead of $140M). The too high Oilers number would be more than evened out by the too low Ducks number.

I’ll look more at whether the numbers add up across the league if/when Dom updates (ie – is the model at least internally coherent).

In terms of the numbers the model normally spits out. Well I agree they’re flawed and definitely not perfect. Perhaps they still have some value though, since any single measure (or opinion) on anything is going fall short. Dom’s model certainly does capture a decent chunk of relative player performance across the league.

Redbird62

Even at the $6 million value for Anaheim (I made the mistake of doing sums in my head and double counted a few negatives), I think my point stands that their problem seems to be much greater than computational errors. They can say the computer screwed up, but how did that not raise any flags to anyone who looked at it before it was published.

I don’t care if all the numbers internally add up (ie equallng~32 x $82.5 less the amount 8-9 teams are short of the cap (adjusted for LTIR issues I suppose)). If someone working for the Athletic looked at Anaheim’s numbers, how could they not almost immediately conclude that the since their value of the all Duck’s players is less than10% of what they are being paid (or counting against the cap) that there must be a problem in the model. If that $6 million number is not off by tens of millions of dollars, that will be another major indictment of the model. If it is off by tens of millions of dollars, what does that say about anyone who looked at it (and all the other numbers it spit out) and didn’t immediately see the problem. The least egregious error would be if it was published with no one looking at it, but even that is not a good look.

jp

It was clearly a major mistake. Dom and co are updating weekly so I’d guess there isn’t all that much oversight. By his tweets he didn’t seem too concerned about it either (said he might have to update next week to correct the error IIRC).

More generally on the quality of the model, maybe we should be viewing it as a data point rather than THE data point? It very clearly isn’t perfect, but it does quite decently in ranking players across the league.

And if we don’t expect it to be perfect than maybe we could acknowledge that as a single data point it does very well? I’m actually not sure of any other single data point that does better (points/game? GF%? TOI? not sure if you have another).

Or do we use qualitative assessments? On this site alone opinions on Yamamoto range from ‘he’s a worthy top 6 forward’ to ‘he’s replacement level and could be replaced by Lavoie’ (or Foegele, or Kostin, or whoever).

Anyway, Dom’s is definitely not a perfect model, on that much we agree.

Redbird62

I agree that it is a data point. I have never though of it or any other amateur stats analysis sites as the data point for comparing players. Any models that are evaluating and projecting individual player performance that rely on the data obtained by mining the detailed game reports from the NHL website (or from 3rd party sites that already mined that data from the NHL and repackaged it with extra formulas (all the expected data and shot quality data from Naturalstatrick for example) are going to be highly unreliable as far as ranking players quality. Unlike baseball, you have to actually watch a hockey game to really get a sense of how the whole game went and how each player played. Data and analytics are becoming a more and more useful tool for assessing hockey, particularly from the big proprietary firms like Sportslogiq and others who build their data by watching every player in every game, but it is a long long way away from being baseball.

My biggest issue is with the people that are emphatic that based on information from these public sites they have a better understanding of the quality of individual players than Holland or Woodcroft. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but many aren’t even willing to consider the possibility that Holland and Woodcroft (and Tippett previously) have access to way more information about the player than they do.

Besides the Yamo debate, here are three more ideas that some of these folks came up with over the last few years based on amateur analytics.

Ethan Bear propped up Nurse

Kris Russell was a bad defender (who just happened to be lucky)

Jesse Puljujarvi is one of the better defensive forwards in the NHL

If your analytics are telling you these, there is something wrong with the analytics.

Scungilli Slushy

To me it if a career coach that establishes in the NHL actually needs much for stats to know what he’s seeing from his team, probably not a great coach

jp
My biggest issue is with the people that are emphatic that based on information from these public sites they have a better understanding of the quality of individual players than Holland or Woodcroft. 

Yes, this is certainly taking things too far by a lot.

Agree with your examples and would add more like Keith was ‘3rd pairing at best’ and the assessment by a few at last years trade deadline that Montreal actually got the better defenseman in the Kulak trade.

Munny 2.0

For seventeen years, I’ve been making this argument here. And here are three other people making the same argument in the same subthread.

Maybe the amateur stats community has finally turned a corner (I doubt it).

Munny 2.0

What is being described by Redbird (and others) are the limitations of amateur stats. Until commentators like these came along, I was pretty much a man on island on this site with regards to the limted power of amateur stats.

And I’m not talking about eye test vs math test arguments or anything like what Spector would put forth, but simply discussions about understanding the limits of the the data and the math being applied to it.

One of my best vindications was when Dellow got a hold of me privately and told me I was right about second contracts all along. I don’t get that feeling often here (and keep slogging away regardless) but today I’m feeling it.

JP and Georges have been tremendous additions to the community. A big part of that is their understanding of the limits of stats. Georges routinely used to demonstrate said limitations here, yet typically received nothing but grief for it.

But I do agree this blog can be quite cliquey when it comes to who it regards as the “big brains”… a framing it often promotes. Fortunately there are enough commentors here who evaluate ideas over people to make it all worthwhile.

defmn

Math is a language that allows for precision in describing quantitative relationships between objects where the discrete comparatives essential ontological characteristic is one of sameness. As that sameness decreases its descriptive precision erodes.

==========================

I’ve posted the above here before and it mostly just gets ignored – I suppose because this blog likes the idea of quantitative analysis – but it does explain the limitations that are inherent in computer generated models.

You group together data that is similiar but not the same and then you do it again and then you do it again and again and again and every time you do it you compromise the integrity of the data regardless of how you attempt to introduce corrective subroutines.

If you are dealing with simple points they work well enough but there is very little about human activities – or climate or viruses for that matter – that make such exercises reliable predictors.

Some models work better than others but ultimately the more complicated the information sought the less reliable the model becomes.

They can be fun for discussion purposes but unfortunately because math itself has a reputation for objectivity they lead some people to use them when deciding policy. That has led to incorrect decisions in a number of industries.

jp

This is all correct, of course.

I guess I would add that the pull is largely as an alternative to purely opinion/eye test based evaluation (or in Dom’s case an alternative or improvement on available models).

In those contexts I think Dom’s model does quite well. But 100% it is not (and can not be) something that should be taken as the whole truth.

defmn

I agree with the following caveat.

Dom’s model does quite well compared to observations made by those who are wrong. I doubt it does quite well compared to the observations of those who understand what they are looking at.

And please do no take this as a slag on the role of analytics in evaluating ‘the hockey’. It is not that. Analytics is an important tool for directing the attention to areas that might otherwise be missed.

Computer modelling, though?

It has a habit of telling you something everybody already knew or being complete nonsense. It’s value is pretty much exclusively entertainment only. Nothing wrong with that until people start using it for making decisions about matters of importance.

90s fan

I agree with this, although find the first paragraph hard to read. I might say it like this: quantitative methods do not remove the subjectivity of determining a players worth, because that subjectivity is inherent in the natural context in which the players exist.

Even in only taking in objective values such as points, only serves to ignore the subjectivities, rather than acknowledging them.

Munny 2.0

Subjectivity is a whole ‘nother problem. 😉

DEFMN’s statement isn’t describing the limits of math with respect to subjectivity but rather the problems with using math to describe the relationship between two or more things (players, events, etc) that aren’t similar enough to provide any precision in that comparison (and one presumes also in any predictability with regards to the future of those things being compared). His statement, by referring to ontological basis, is actually removing subjectivity from the equation. That is, before we even get into the issue of subjectivity, there are other potential issues.

Of course, when the comparisons are weak because the ontological basis is too dissimilar, subjectivity issues do have room to creep into the discussion. Subjectivity, for eg, can convince a user of math that said ontological bases are more similar than they actually are.

Another takeaway that is implicit in DEFMN’s statement is the necessity of adequate sample size.

defmn

What he said. 😎

leadfarmer

I wonder if you added up all of the values of the contracts across the league how far above the salary cap for all teams combined you would be. I’m guessing at least 20 mil per team

leadfarmer

Oilers estimated value is 140 mil if you add everything up.

Scungilli Slushy

Even Statisticians have trouble with the interpretation of data. For example how many predicted the orange man would get elected? Boatloads of economics isn’t right, we are living the fallout from that

It’s very hard to get to what drives what. I remember in the early years of hockey analytics debates lots of things that seemed counter intuitive and after some fought hard and dirty for in their defence, they were proven wrong or useless. Not many admit to the being wrong part though

That faceoffs didn’t matter much was one. Size didn’t matter. I stopped buying into most of them once they started falling, outside of more basic numbers like Corsi

WAR and other metrics pegging value above a standard level have yet to convince me. I do find manually tracked zone entry work pretty informative when we can get it. It pretty much pegged the Oilers D group woes and when Kenny changed one player out weak at it and replaced with a Viking good at most of it, the others could be paired better to offset what they were weak at, night and day difference as we see

Really zone entries are a part, big part, of the underpinnings of Corsi, which we know works, so that data is also predictive. They are both also very basic which means we can easily understand what is actually going on

ArmchairGM

Great thread, appreciate everyone’s input here. I just wanted to chime in on WAR / GSVA and other single number “values”, I’ve noticed that they rarely take QoC into account, especially for defensemen. For instance, most will show Kulak as having more value than Ceci due to having better stats, but intuitively that can’t be true otherwise Woodcroft – one of the smartest coaches in the game – wouldn’t be hard matching Ceci against the opposition’s best every night while simultaneously sheltering Kulak.

jp

99% sure Dom’s GSVA does have some sort of QoQ measure (lists a ‘usage’ category in addition to the TOI category). IIRC the JFresh model also had measures of teammates and opposition.

Agree those are likely under-estimating the importance though.

Spartacus

How does a player who gets paid ~$5M then get rated to be worth minus $10M?

None of it makes sense.

Nice try by Dom, but the model doesn’t work and hasn’t worked since inception.

hunter1909

HUNTER 1909 OFFICIAL PLAYOFF DEATH MARCH 2023

Deadline: 1st puck drop of the Oilers playoffs

Rules:

1 – How many games do the Oilers win during these playoffs?

tie break

2 – How many points do Leon and Connor score combined?

tie break

3 – How many goals does Evander Kane score?

Hunter1909 plays Playoff Death March:

1- 16
2- 57
3 -12

dangilitis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mw6iltPJvBQ

One of the best covers of this song around

Tarkus

Yesssssssss. Love me some Phish.

They actually performed the entire Remain in Light album during one of their Halloween concerts in the mid-90’s.

And it’s not the only Talking Heads cover(s) they do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-dp2d1DzOA

dangilitis

Had the pleasure of hearing Cities at my first show!

Bruce McCurdy

Another who has covered the entire album “Remain in Light” is the great Angelique Kidjo, who did so in 2018.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X0EOxxKrUFc

Met her in the CKUA studios during a pledge drive a number of years ago, her energy absolutely lit up the place. She got all of the volunteers up & dancing in no time flat. Definitely the most famous person I ever danced with, admittedly a short list.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bruce McCurdy
mit167

Holidays in Hawaii but we’ve been able to catch the last couple games. Not sure who coined it but one of the analysts started referring to Klim Kostin as the Klim Reaper. Thought it was funny. Go Oilers

hunter1909

1st round St Louis pick; traded for a low price to the Oilers with untapped potential.

Who needs the draft?

Last edited 1 year ago by hunter1909
OriginalPouzar

Demers mentions he’s known for 3-4 games that he was going to be up for this one.

Really sounds like he knows this is a one and done. Gets 700 in and sails on.

Sounds super excited for this opportunity and also for a run for the Calder Cup.

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Classy move by the organization.

Munny 2.0

wonder if there is any pension or benefits trigger there…

OriginalPouzar

I think he’s already eligible for the max pension benefits – he’s has 10 full NHL seasons (i.e. on the NHL roster, or injured NHL for all 82 games).

OriginalPouzar

Per Stauff:

Oilers practice:

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto 
Kostin-Bjugstad-Janmark
Foegele-Shore-Ryan
McLeod

Nurse-Desharnais
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Broberg
Murray-Demers

Skinner
Campbell

*Ceci (personal) has returned to EDM

Munny 2.0

some kinda interesting D pairings there…

maudite

Great chance for Vinny

Optimism is like heroin

I like the idea of a Nurse Desharnais pair. Not sure Vinny is up to the qoc yet.

Scungilli Slushy

No fun against those two

hunter1909

Have been noticing teams like Boston not seeming to have so much fun as they arrive at the game with press clippings gushing about how intimidating they are.

Oilers have got a lot of big rough players lol

ArmchairGM

What QoC? San Jose doesn’t have many elite forwards. I think Desharnais will be fine.

Tarkus

A tale of two leadoff tracks:

Not that many here need to be told, our host makes reference to not one but two tracks from the Talking Heads album Remain in Light. Another, the opening track is a number called “Born Under Punches (The Heat Goes On)“, undoubtedly influenced by Afrobeat but yet IMO the funkiest song ever written and recorded by Caucasians.

Re: the ELO discussion/discursion bELOw, specifically the Face the Music album. Its opener is actually my favorite track from that album, a mainly instrumental tune called “Fire on High“.

Munny 2.0

Kind of unbelievable that on a stat holiday with a good portion of N. America at home and off work, there isn’t a single NHL game to watch.

iHockeyWpg

Bettman might be Catholic, Good Friday celebrations.

Yukon Jerk

I have it on good authority that the devil is indeed catholic

flea

According to my US based clients, it’s not really a stat in the US. Most people are still working and you’d have to book it off if attending church was important for you today.

Still – I agree with you. The schedule is kind of funky for the oilers- play tomorrow afternoon, wait all the way to Tuesday night to play Colorado, then back home for 1.

I wouldn’t be surprised if their focus slipped a little for the game tomorrow. Still – this team can win any game.

Reja

Playing a couple of rounds of Golf in sunny California might be just what the Doctor or Nurse ordered.

jp

Yeah neither Friday or Monday are a holiday in the US.

Reja

It’s a stat holiday in 10 States
1.Connecticut
2.Delaware
3.Hawaii
4.Indiana
5.Kentucky
6.Louisiana
7.New Jersey
8.North Dakota
9.Tennessee
10.North Carolina

jp

Cool.

Reja

Double time for some time and half for the others. I still think there’s a few professions that pay triple time on Christmas Day.

jp

Well not where I am.

hunter1909

My local butcher shop is closed today.

Reja

Is he Polish or Hungarian?

godot10

There is really no money in the till for Yamamoto/Foregel if he/they plays well or if he/they plays badly. Kane and Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins are all locked up. And Lavoie, Bourgault, Tulio, and Petrov are in the pipeline. Along with Holloway and McLeod.

Playing well in the playoffs only means the Oilers get a better draft pick in return for him/them when he is traded, this upcoming summer or the one after.

Contending teams cannot afford to pay market value for mid-tier forwards. The mid-tier has to be occupied by upper tier forwards on taking a home town discount or rising ELC or transitionaly contract players.

AsiaOil

True that and trading a player like Yamo at the draft for picks is a smart way to fund the trade deadline deals and keep players in the development pipeline. You absolutely must have some turnover year to year.

The big 5 forwards are in place and going nowhere, so the only place to bring in some fresh air is Yamo’s 2RW slot and/or replacing a mid-tier guy like Foegle in the bottom 6. That’s almost $6 million in cap space waiting to be harvested and turned into picks, extra dollars for Bjugstad/McLeod and roster space for Holloway and Lavioe. Holland can add further with a UFA signing or two like Janmark. Same could apply to Kulak with his $2.75 million being replaced by Broberg and money freed up for Bouch.

Stand still and you fall behind but you need to drafting and development systems to support improvement each year and the GM to make the right deals/signings. We’ve done a lot better at this over the past 24 months and it’s gotten us where we are today.

Scungilli Slushy

Also if you are successful in developing players you can’t keep them all, there are 7 draft rounds, college signings and 23 roster spots

Somebody has to move. While we get attached to players it is a sport, a profession and a business. Part of the gig

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

100%.

It seems likely two of Kulak, Yamo, and Foegele will not be back. Possibly all three.

If they continue their current level of play, the Oilers will get some decent assets back.

OriginalPouzar

There is truth to this and having value contracts (players on ELCs and cheap 2nd contracts) is imperative.

At the same time, contending teams can’t move out their 2RW and 3LW on the premise that non-established prospects will come in and fill those holes.

Sure, maybe Holloway has a leg up on 2LW but the others cited have not even played an NHL game and one hasn’t even played a pro game.

hunter1909

I’m looking forward to Stanley Cup winning Oilers going to other teams and get the Ben Eager, Andrew Ference hype.

Like Calgary who are on the hook for 7×7 million for Kadri’s retirement contract. .

Last edited 1 year ago by hunter1909
jp

There is really no money in the till for Yamamoto/Foregel if he/they plays well or if he/they plays badly.

It’s true that one of Yamamoto, Foegele or Kulak will need to be traded for cap purposes, but probably only one.

What would you do with the cap space if more than one of them was moved? (Or what would you do to necessitate more than one needing to be moved?).

Reja

Koepka with the cold shoulder opening odds at 21-1 odds could make for a glorious Sunday if the weather holds up.

OriginalPouzar

DFO ranks the all-time best offensive seasons:

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/anaheim-ducks-brock-mcginn-leaves-game-vs-edmonton-early-with-upper-body-injury

Spoiler: McDavid’s current season makes an appearance.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been thinking AHL deal for Brind’Amour.

He’ll turn pro but will he get an NHL ELC from anyone? I’m not positive.

Munny 2.0

There’s rumored to be serious interest in Brind’Amour… from sources other than Friedman too (although one never knows how much echo chamber is involved).

I don’t think an AHL deal will cut it, if his agent feels he will have a choice of destinations and thus the ability to find an org with room to climb the ranks.

Of course, he could also be old school, like his dad seems to be, and want to play for the team who drafted him. Never know.

Attila

100% the Oilers sign him.

Optimism is like heroin

We have so many spots on the 50 man that I don’t think Holland would quibble about the nhl/ahl side.

Harpers Hair

These signings most often come down to opportunity.

Most agents of NCAA grads are looking for a situation that allows the player to burn off an ELC year by playing some games in the NHL immediately.

OriginalPouzar

This is completely inapplicable to a 24 year old.

OriginalPouzar

Its not quibbling, its doing what’s appropriate for the situation, in my opinion.

Holland and Gretzky has done a great job of treating those on AHL contracts as legit prospects and providing them with a clear ability to earn ice time, promotions, NHL contracts and NHL playing time.

Brind’Amour is a fine 2-way enter in college but he’s also turning 24 in a couple of months. He’s a distant distant bell for an NHL game.

Sure, I’d like to keep him in the org but he has he accomplished any more in college than Vinny D. or various others than need to start with AHL deals.

Heck, he could probably make more money next year on an AHL deal. The AHL portion of an NHL ELC is capped at, I believe, 70K and there is no max on an AHL contract.

Oil2Oilers

The Oilers have come a long way from Tambellini being unaware of Smithson’s impending child to pre planning for Ceci’s, while doing Demers a solid.

Demers was a good bet on veteran cover this year. It didn’t work out at the NHL level but by both sides handling it with class it bodes well for the future.

Darryl8843

I feel like the Oilers have been playing playoff hockey since the end of February when they blew those 3-0 leads and lost. Not because they were in danger of missing the playoffs but to dial in and get ready for the playoffs. Holland made some key additions. These last 3 weeks we see a complete game like we haven’t seen in a long time in these parts. They are clearly ready for a long run.

Redbird62

The age at which the players record their rookie season is a very important part to include in any comparison of their relative performances and potential.

Linus Omark was drafted when he was 20 years old and played his first game with the Oilers as a rookie only 2 months before his 24th birthday. Not sure if it was his decision or the Oilers to not have him over in the AHL to develop, but everything public about the guy indicated he was never interested in learning what it would take to stay in the NHL. He claimed it was politics that got him sent to the AHL after his first camp and also refused to report to the AHL with Buffalo. Arcobello was already 25 by the time he played his rookie season with the Oilers.

Most of the earlier first rounders on the list were 18 or 19 in their rookie seasons and Yamamoto’s first season was only 9 games.

Last edited 1 year ago by Redbird62
Bruce McCurdy

It was Omark’s own decision not to come in 2009 & it was fatal to his NHL hopes. By putting it off a year he put himself in an exceptional class of rookie wingers including Hall, Paajarvi, Eberle & even Hartikainen. The first 3 were all first-round picks, Omark a sixth so he got slotted accordingly. “Politics”? Whatever. At the end he got a decent shot with 27 points in 51 games, but was still fourth with a bullet among the infamous H.O.P.E. Quartet.

Whereas in 2009-10 the Oilers entire rookie class (skaters) scored 1 goal in 94 games.

Redbird62

The politics comment was a direct quote from Omark himself in his interview right after he found out he was being sent down. Omark was drafted in the 4th round. Hartikainen was a 6th round pick and he only got into 12 games near the end of 10-11 well after Omark got called up that season.

Offside

I hope a Pisani does emerge, but I’m not sure we need one. Unless the Pisani analogy can be used for a player who wears pads, a blocker and catching glove.
The 06 team had the D and the G, but didn’t have the offence of the current squad. An exceptional unsung hero may need to come from somewhere in the back

813.52Ran

Desharnais

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Wow. Seattle is only four points back from LA. Seattle has four games remaining. LA with three.

What is the better match-up?

iHockeyWpg

Seattle

DevilsLettuce

If it wasn’t for the shootout, Seattle would be miles ahead of LA with 5 more regulation wins, and a better goal differential. +19 to +31.. Which is only +50 combined.. Which is less then the Oilers current differential. Eat narratives naysayers.

I’d rather keep on beating up the Kings and their stupid coach.

David

Sean McIndoe has an article at the Athletic with the most brilliant idea ever for determining draft order (which he gives credit to a commentor for). Just came out today so I won’t get into it but it would be max level entertainment – so we know the NHL would never do it.

https://theathletic.com/4384689/2023/04/07/nhl-draft-lottery-bill-daly/

Last edited 1 year ago by David
W

Objection #1 was “it is silly”, wrong, it is stupid.

godot10

The proposal is potentially corruptible. Ping pong balls are not corruptible.

Admittedly the probability of favours corrupting the process in the proposal is extremely low, but it is not zero.

The NHL has a wide range between the have owners and the have-not owners.

dustrock

So what you’re saying, LT, is that this passionate, intelligent fanbase has been through the crucible and is ready for glory?

Saskie

I love this statement .. I know a few who are jumping on and are not so darn negative of late.

I do have an issue though, with the vocal minority that is on twitter spewing negative. This is quite often on many fronts not just hockey. Yet the reality in the real society where people can not just spew unchecked without a face to face where they get called out and can’t ignore it, is quite different in many respects. I do not think it is a true representation of the fan base. Most of us discuss hockey with a lot of people, a wide range of people in real life, face to face or over the old phone. Yes many are of like minds as they may be friends, but they have their own varied opinions and I must say that yes.. some had complained of Darnell Nurses start for instance, and his pay, but everyone of them I’ve talked to lately is happy he’s looking so great since Ekholm has appeared on the scene. The far majority I speak with are happy with Holland’s progress going exactly as he had said.. he’s developing a team and a program. Bringing in players with experience like Keith last year was in large part to help develop that mental toughness and attitudes in the whole group .. the hockey structure is learned, yes, but the mentality of winning in tough games in the playoffs and grinding it out is instilled and taught and developed as well . And he checked that super important box while everyone did seem focused on the numbers, cap hit and trade. But he was brought in to teach and show the defensemen, Conner and Leon and gang what a strong cup winning mentality looks like. Of course the oilers were not quite there last year and most of us didn’t expect the cup, but we got another measurable level of improvement. This is highly undervalued by many who don’t see the mental and psychological aspect of development, which some people smart people with experience say is possibly most important. Ken has been developing a team and not just building one.. many fans do see and appreciate this.. are all of a managers trades and signings all going to flourish? No of course not… but most fans I talk too are pretty happy with Kenny as he has a couple deals that he lost but weren’t a big impact on the team and many many he has won that have heavily impacted the team and I don’t think I’m the only one talking with people that are pleased .. what a huge difference since Ken came and the numbers and results show it. Many trolls on Twitter that spew aren’t fans and the high majority of fans aren’t even on twitter.. I do agree that there are vocal fans on there that won’t be happy no matter if we win two cups or none, and there’s every other type also.. If a person is a fan of a team, should they not want their team to have success? Should they not be happy when they reach the pinnacle ? Or are they just following the team so they can access a group that can feed their commiserate negativity and make them feel heard no matter their rhetoric? Or are they just killing life off in their own little purgatory of negativity.. lol I digress .. but I’m disappointed when I hear people make a statement about the fan base based on Twitter or other social media platforms, as the high high majority of men in our market place are not even taking part on Twitter .. recently in Canada, more than 84 percent of men over 40 aren’t even actively engaged in social media .. some may have a profile but don’t check in to it or follow once they find out there’s much ridiculous babble that comes from the same unstable group commenting bs. Wow, this must be what it feels like to spew . I am following social media, but thank the big guy I NEVER post!! As true Canadian I apologize in advance if I have offended anyone. Thank u Lowtide for the blog and all who put their comments and numbers here for us to read ! I will go back to radio silence. Let’s go Oilers !

Shane

Good post!

Scungilli Slushy

For me the guys that didn’t make it had significant issues. Mostly size and or skating

Slep wanted to go home. Some didn’t have enough hockey sense like Yak. I also thought he wasn’t quick enough for his size and not a good enough finisher to be uninterested in his end of the ice

I used to say that the Oilers drafted guys with big obstacles to overcome to be good NHL players. Holland simply drafts guys with the right NHL tools – size speed and at least some skill – all that has to happen is that they figure themselves out in the bigs

They don’t have to become what they aren’t (and also be great scorers right off the hop and also as aggressive as Messier to keep the BoB happy). Seems to work a lot better

meanashell11

Another thing is we finally have a coaching staff that puts players in the right position to succeed. Too many times we have had coaches that have a system and then force the players into that system, instead of designing a system to fit the strengths of the players. TMac and the dementor (I will not even give him a capital on that name, he does not deserve it) continually tried to fit round pegs into square holes…….

Scungilli Slushy

Yes. Pretty sure it started at the top though. They kept going for disciplinarians which is blaming the pegs. Not that they couldn’t see what type of players the league was transitioning to or would draft or could get them, and only iced half an NHL roster most seasons

The one that was trying to coach them up like Woody has done, Renney, they didn’t like that he acted like a proper thinking coach apparently

I do give some leeway for having all the 1 OVs. It really takes choice out of the equation unless teams have a lot of cajones to go off the narrative and I don’t see that they did. It’s one thing when it’s Connor, another when there isn’t really a franchise type slotted at the consensus 1st. Love the Nuge, not a franchise player, Hall no, Yak well… Weak draft years. Picking even 2nd or a bit later would have given more choice not that there was a lot in some of those drafts

Bruce McCurdy

In the Yak year, wasn’t it the Islanders who offered ALL of their draft picks for the #1OV? & it’s not like they were off the first page, drafting #4 OV

jp

That would also have prevented Chiarelli from trading the 2015 #16 and 33 picks for Griffin Reinhart..

Though I feel like it’s only fair to limit my ‘what if?’ history-changing moves to after the 2015 draft lottery.

Scungilli Slushy

Right. Given Yak was the consensus #1 but not a no brainer franchise player like a Lemieux Crosby Lindros or McDavid, that they didn’t do that says to me how locked into the hype around having the 1 OV makes it harder to choose for most teams

Really they should have taken that deal all day long because it was a weaker cohort at the top. You probably remember better the draft talk Bruce but I don’t recall being too into any of the top 5. The actual NHL talent was later

I also didn’t want Yak because not only were the Oilers awful with ‘Russians’ Yak isn’t a European Russian, even more different. I saw little chance of success

Redbird62

What is a European Russian? Yakupov is a Tatar Russian. Tatarstan is entirely located in the European part of Russia.

Also, he came over and played 2 full seasons in the OHL, so he was already used to North America.

Scungilli Slushy

Good geography catch. How about Yak’s background isn’t culturally western

That he played in Canada 2 seasons did not make him acclimated to our culture. Hence the unusual everything about him. Which at the time meant the Oilers wouldn’t acclimate to him. And they didn’t as expected by many

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Exactly. This point is so often overlooked. Woodcroft and his staff deserve massive credit for getting everything out of this group that can be had.

OriginalPouzar

Well, yes and no on that right. I mean, Woody took alot of grief for his deployment of Holloway most of the season.

SVR

I don’t disagree and I do think Kenny is doing a good job. I think his draft record has some good arrows but it’s way to soon to call it a success at this point.

Aside from the core, it’s players drafted in 2016 – 2018 that are the difference makers on value deals right now. Vinnie, Skinner,Bouchard, McLeod. Say what you want about Yamo, but he’s a top six on this team.

These players were drafted by Chiarelli. Add to this to the useful players Holland got via trade for Chiarelli draft picks like Bear, Jones, and Samaroukov.

In the end, Chiarelli was an awful GM, setting the team back with his terrible trades and signings. I think the one thing we do have to credit him for is fixing the draft and development side of the org.

Redbird62

Not sure what his influence was on the picking of Bear after Jones (other than taking the advice of his staff and saying Bear’s name into the microphone), but I would bet he was the one who decided to take Marino as well.

Scungilli Slushy

Good points. I was meaning Holland’s players have no obvious hurdles to overcome

Lavoie is a good example. He has everything to make it and be good. All that had to change was his noggin. Now that it has he’s looking really strong. He didn’t have to play outside of his game

While he had to improve skating and get stronger like so many players do to get to an NHL level, he didn’t have to overcome having poor skating, lacking skill or lacking a shot, being timid in style, or being short and/or 40 pounds too light like so many in the past

Chiapete was better at that than previous GMs for sure

leadfarmer

Oilers are 3rd in the Athletics power rankings and 1st in their conference.
I don’t think anyone wants to play us

N64

Also moved up to 3rd in the 538 ELO system ratings:

1. Bruins
2. Avs
3. Oilers
4. Rangers
5. Hurricanes
6. Leafs

Last edited 1 year ago by N64
W

538 ELO system ratings
what’s that?

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Presumably not Electric Light Orchestra – but now that I have typed that I am going to have to look for a Spotify playlist while I renovate a laundry/pantry!

Hanging cabinets, making shelves. All the tools out, laser level, wall anchors the works!

Bruce McCurdy

Such a great tune. I happened to be visiting my home in Newfoundland late summer 1975 when that album came out (“Face the Music”). My brother’s roommate (& my other brother’s close friend) was dealing with cancer at that time, & spent a lot of time chilling out in the music room, as did I with him. He played that album frequently, we both loved “Evil Woman” & “Strange Magic” in particular.

Geoff died not a whole lot later, & I never saw him again after that trip. But I always think of him when I hear a song from that splendid LP.

yeraslob

I think The Way Life’s Meant To Be is a helluva good song. It was a staple in my mixed tape collection so it had to be good!

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Turns out turn of the century farmhouse walls are not exactly straight. So despite the tools and equipment, it will be a be a great deal of brute force wedging 54″ worth. of wall cabinets into a 53.75″ space.

Music playing, almost completely obliterating the swearing!

Bruce McCurdy

Funny thing, ELO did have a tune called “10538 Overture”

W

Big help all you guys were.

Pretendergast

Kings looked like pawns last night. They only bring the A game for us but as seen, it’s unsustainable. Bring it on.

AsiaOil

Flat-top had them playing playoff hockey all-season and it doesn’t look like they have another gear (or the goaltending) when more talented teams take it up a notch or two. I figure there are some pretty big doubts creeping in and it won’t take much to crack those wide open in the playoffs. Having the Oilers outplay them two times at their own boring game is a pretty big mind-frack. Then Vegas stomps them. They have doubts now…….big big doubts.

Scungilli Slushy

Agreed and Doughty isn’t dominant now at least consistently

AsiaOil

The #2 slot it is, no matter, we can still get home ice in rounds 1 & 3 with wins at SJ and Colorado. COL is an important game for many reasons. I have little fear starting on the road in Vegas if we are fortunate enough to win round 1.

This team is legit and it’s been well coached and managed no matter what anyone on twitter says. Proof is in the record since Jan 1 and especially since the remaining holes were fixed at the deadline. We have the 2 best players in the league plus depth at forward and defense. Almost everyone in the west has goaltending questions and our guys are as likely as anyone to get hot. Some injury luck and a Pisani emerging could be enough.

As you said, lots of time for second-guessing and back seat GMing in the summer. Enjoy how good this team has become. Old buggers like us know how long the dry spells can last.

Durag

We can still get home ice in round 2 after Vegas loses to Nashville!

meanashell11

We are getting down to a massive decision. Do we keep McD and Leon in the line up to hit milestones (152/156, PP goals), or rest them now 1st place seems out of reach?Tough to ask them to rest given how important those numbers are.

hunter1909

McDavid’s already dogging it last game so I’d wager playoff success is what’s his focus right now, not silly regular season success.

Last edited 1 year ago by hunter1909
Redbird62

Last season Connor was kept out of the final regular game against the Canucks to rest (so was Leon, but he was clearly playing injured). That game was the second of back to backs and the Oilers had nothing to play for, plus the Oilers first playoff game was on the Tuesday, so having 3 days off was not an issue at all (if they played Wednesday instead he probably would have played in the Canucks game).

The Oilers won’t give up on getting as high in the standings this season until their position is absolutely set. They want home ice advantage if they can get it and that includes finishing above any team in the Central even if they might not catch Vegas (who play Dallas plus Seattle twice) so that they can so they can have home ice if they reach the Conference final.

So Connor and Leon will play in San Jose tomorrow for sure. I also can’t see the Oilers resting anyone against the Avalanche on Tuesday. McDavid and Leon’s drive to score points is primarily because that is what they do to help the Oilers win, not because of personal goals or awards.

If the last game against San Jose will have no impact on their standings compared to any other team in the conference, then maybe they will get rested. Even that seems unlikely though given how long the gap would be till the first playoff game. If they aren’t likely to have their first game until Monday or Tuesday (the playoffs start on the 17th) I doubt Connor and Leon would not want their last game to have been on the prior Tuesday and end up having 5 or 6 full rest days between games.

Bruce McCurdy

Last game Woodcroft smartly went with 12/6 so that 97 & 29 wouldn’t have to double shift at all, then rolled 4 lines all night. Every forward had between 11 & 16 minutes EVTOI. With only 1 powerplay per team, the overall ice time was constrained with no F as high as 19 minutes.

I expect we’ll see more of this type of deployment down the stretch. Possible to rest players without “resting” them.

OriginalPouzar

Agreed although I think they’ll probably to 11/7 tomorrow with Demers playing.

They’ll need some cover and, also, well, it would be a pretty big kick in the nuts to Broberg if an AHL call-up came and played over him, right?

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think there is any chance either sits more than one game.

Their minutes will be managed within the last 2-3 games they play.

I also don’t know if its good for either to sit out more than that last game – that’s getting to a week plus without a game.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

My vote for this year’s Pisani is Kostin.

€√¥£€^$

I think it will be Bjugstad, we haven’t seen him at his best yet and I think he will be extremely motivated, has so much skill and has a lot more to show.

Diablo

I have Bjugstad in the Jarrett Stoll role. Vinny is Matt Green with better wheels and skill level.

Pisani is the Edmonton version of a John Druce … veteran 3rd line winger who goes on an unsustainable heater in the playoffs, then promptly gets signed for too much money and term. The only one who really fits that description in Edmonton is Janmark.

Victoria Oil

My recollection of Matt Green is that he took a gazillion obstruction penalties in the 2006 playoffs.

Reja

I like Kostin as well he’s hungry and is built for L.A Playoff Hockey. I’m going outside the box and picking Holloway to score some huge Goals this Playoff.

OriginalPouzar

The Condors are going to need him to, that’s for sure.

Brantford Boy

I suspect LT has Janmark written on a sticky note attached to his old school 14″ CRT Dell monitor.

I’ll go with Foegele on my bar napkin.

yeraslob

Yes to McLeod. Connor will be flying, followed by Leon who can wheel but is also a load. That leaves Highlander next up assuming Nuge is in the top 6. That speed against the third pair could be effective.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure I see double digit goals in Janmark.

I think he’ll chip in and continue to play his responsible 14-15 minutes but a goal scoring heater is something I don’t see.

Derek Ryan has been known to score in bunches but I do like the Bjugstad thought.

Pretendergast

It’s interesting because while we are discussing impact rookies et al. I already know theres a decade worth of material about value deals depending on how high this team flies.

Macleod, Bouch, Vinny, Holloway, Bro, Skinner, etc.

Lol you develop a past.

Tarkus

Prospectition!

Three shalt be the number of prospects thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, nor either count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.

Youngstown (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
North Bay (Petrov) @ 5 p.m. (Series tied 2-2)
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 7 p.m. (Series tied 2-2)

All times, at all times, are Seba Beach time.

Munny 2.0

Seba Beach is a good choice… there’s probably no Antioch in Alberta…

Victoria Oil

I’m just here for the Monty Python references.