RE 17-18 LEON DRAISAITL: BRIDGE BURNING

It’s easy to forget that Leon Draisaitl has been around for just three seasons with the Edmonton Oilers. Each of the three have been so different it is somewhat difficult to project what comes next. The distressing part is that the Oilers have to make a value judgement so early in his career. Long term at big money? Bridge? There is real danger here. (Bridge Burning)

LEON DRAISAITL 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 51 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.67 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 10 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 0.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 52.70
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 4.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 172 shots/16.9%
  • Boxcars: 82, 29-48-77 (No. 8 NHL)
  • (All numbers via Puck IQStats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)

RE 17-18: 79GP, 26-58-84 (1.06)

  1. Interesting numbers. Very close to last year (82gp, 29-48-77) but he does get a bump. I think Draisaitl is a fantastic player and he is going to get the push again.
  2. How much do you have him playing with McDavid? A lot. Leon is my No. 1 RW for 2017-18, I believe Todd McLellan will agree. It’s the easiest duo on the team to match, and to count on.
  3. Many people believe Draisaitl moves to center this year. I have him at RW for about 70 percent of the season, all with 97.
  4. Don’t you think they transition him? My other choices are less proven than 29 and in the world of reasonable he makes a lot of sense. This season will see a transition to center for Draisaitl, but the Oilers have decided it’s also audition time among wingers. Leon stabilizes the position in a big way.
  5. It’s a waste of a good faceoff man! How so? He can take faceoffs while playing with McDavid, he did last year and was effective.
  6. Your premise, and your numbers, are wrong! There’s a change in the weather surrounding Leon these days, mostly because of the contract I expect. Todd McLellan is a coach who would like to win, and coaches often stay with what worked.
  7. Eberle worked just as well! Eberle is in Brooklyn, the resume on Ryan Strome doesn’t allow me to reasonably project him into the 1RW spot. It may happen, but a productive Leon alongside McDavid is the reasonable bet.
  8. Still, there are swings and misses, this RE misses on all levels. It’s easy to describe the leaves in the autumn, and it’s oh so easy in the spring. But down through January and February it’s a very different thing.
  9. What’s that from? It’s out there for you to find.
  10. So, there’s no way Leon spends the entire season at center? Sure, if Ryan Strome finds chem with Connor McDavid or Jesse Puljujarvi grows up in a quick hurry. Leon at center is the better plan, but I think we’ll see 97-93-Strome-Letestu for much of the season up the middle.
  11. Why not Nuge on the McDavid line? That would help in possession. The McDavid line is already killing it in possession. If the Oilers want to improve the success rate, getting a better set of blue passers would be far more effective.
  12. You are a stubborn ass. Charged and convicted many times over.
  13. Who would Leon play with if he is a center? Lucic and Slepyshev had success with him, I’d like to see Jussi Jokinen and Jesse Puljujarvi get a chance (although JP lacks experience for what would/will be an tough minutes line).
  14. What if the plan is to run Nuge as the defensive conscience and have McDavid linger at the blue line for the outlet pass? First, McDavid is going to be first back a lot anyway, that’s just the nature of being a rocket on skates. Second, let’s not turn this fellow into Gilbert Perreault. Third, if you’re running Nuge as a defensive conscience on 97’s line, that implies Leon isn’t able to do certain things defensively yet. How is he going to run his own tough minutes line? One more year with Nuge, might as well use it.
  15. Can we talk about the contract? Please.
  16. What is your outer marker? Eight years and probably $8.25 million per year. Something like that, otherwise you really are negatively impacting the ability to put a contending team on the ice.
  17. What if there is an offer sheet? I don’t think it’s coming, but if it does PC has to match and then trade the big man next summer.
  18. That would be a terrible result. Noxious. Better to have it happen before the Nuge trade though, at least you have some cover.
  19. Matching $10 million times seven doesn’t work. No, it doesn’t. Oilers can survive for one year, then deal Draisaitl next summer. I think they can get some value back, and more immediate value. Matching gives Edmonton some degree of control.
  20. What do you think happens? I think he signs late August, a deal that hurts both sides but can be lived with. I don’t think either side will want a  Johnny Gaudreau here, this team is in the window to win the Stanley Cup. Some urgency by August, I bet.
  21. Can we begin to put Leon into historical perspective? It’s a little difficult because LD has had three very different seasons. His current comparables are excellent (Matt Duchene, Nathan Horton, I wrote about it here) but if he has a season like I’m projecting, the comps become something else again.
  22. Who would his comps be? Ryan Getlzaf, Eric Staal, that level of center. Leon is not far from emerging as an elite talent and if he makes it this season, we can rest assured the Oilers have their twin towers.
  23. But he won’t push the river as a center? I don’t see it, not yet. More to do with the roster than Leon, but there are lessons to learn, and the organization has really put themselves in a spot on RW.
  24. What has to happen at RW to make it work? I think it comes down to Jesse Puljujarvi. If the young Finn can grab the 1RW job beginning 2018 fall, that gives Todd McLellan the freedom to move Leon to the middle. Chiarelli will have traded Nuge by then.
  25. Why this song? Two reasons. First, obviously the title and lines like “tell me what’s in it for me, nobody getting this for free” can be applied to the current situation. On the other hand, the song also shows tremendous power and reflects Leon’s ability to crush the Pacific Division with McDavid. Great song.

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70 Responses to "RE 17-18 LEON DRAISAITL: BRIDGE BURNING"

  1. Aitch says:

    When I saw McDavid as “Everlong” I couldn’t help but smile. But now that I know you’re going full Foo… this should be awesome. Now, I wanna play along and see if I can match players with songs.

  2. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Aitch,

    That’s how the RE series work. One artist.

    LT,
    A most interesting prediction. I was wondering most about this one and you’ve stuck your neck out. No one can call you a chicken and if he doesn’t hit your lofty numbers we will in all likelihood know why.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Todd McLellan is a coach who would like to win, and coaches often stay with what worked.

    You can’t state that emphatically enough.

    First, McDavid is going to be first back a lot anyway, that’s just the nature of being a rocket on skates. Second, let’s not turn this fellow into Gilbert Perreault. Third, if you’re running Nuge as a defensive conscience on 97’s line, that implies Leon isn’t able to do certain things defensively yet. How is he going to run his own tough minutes line? One more year with Nuge, might as well use it.

    This is where we diverge.

    Nuge as tough minutes C hasn’t worked well for two years running.

    We can argue about the quality of wingers and if they were sufficient for the job, we can argue about RNH’s ability and many other things, but the bottom line is that outside of the last 6 weeks of the season, the Oilers were getting crushed with RNH playing toughs and lacked secondary scoring.

    I posit that it was the lack of secondary scoring that drove McLellan to put Drai with 97. The coach whiffed on the fact that it was 19 on the line instead of 27 that drove the higher end results, not the RW, but that’s beside the point.

    McLellan started last year with unicorns and was in search of a balanced scoring attack.

    Game 1 lines were:

    27-97-14
    19-29-98
    67-93-42
    15-55-44

    I expect him to start similarly this year with Drai at C.

    When the Oilers hit their first losing streak I expect McLellan to go back to 97-29 and am not sure how long it will stick.

    Probably depends on how much the other lines are scoring.

    Also,

    My prognostication on Drai not spending as much time with 97 this year hinges on this:

    It was 19 and not 29 who was the linchpin in the results for 97’s line. (at the very least 19 wasn’t the drag 27 was)

    97 with 19 was very similar whether or not 29 or 14 was on the wing.
    97 with 27 was very similar whether or not 29 or 14 was on the wing.

    McLellan will start the year with 19 on 97’s wing.

    I think he starts 29 at C.

    Since 19-97 will be a thing and not 27-97 I suggest that their results will be good enough with any of 98, Strome or 93 that the coach won’t feel compelled to throw 29 there like he did last year.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Note:

    It was 19 and not 29 who was the linchpin in the results for 97’s line. (at the very least 19 wasn’t the drag 27 was)

    If you missed the post where I showed this to be true, here are the results from last year:

    Goals For/60 5v5
    19-97-14 – 3.87
    19-97-29 – 3.57

    27-97-14 – 2.58
    27-97-29 – 2.41

    Goal Share 5v5 (GF%)
    19-97-14 – 64.3%
    19-97-29 – 60.4%

    27-97-14 – 76.9%
    27-97-29 – 42.9%

    The reason Drai shows us as having better overall GF/60 results with 97 is an artifact of TOI together skewed heavily to 19 on LW whereas 14’s TOI w/ 97 is heavier with 27 on LW.

    TOI
    19-97-14 – 139 min
    19-97-29 – 538 min

    27-97-14 – 232 min
    27-97-29 – 74 min

  5. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Todd McLellan is a coach who would like to win, and coaches often stay with what worked.

    You can’t state that emphatically enough.

    First, McDavid is going to be first back a lot anyway, that’s just the nature of being a rocket on skates. Second, let’s not turn this fellow into Gilbert Perreault. Third, if you’re running Nuge as a defensive conscience on 97’s line, that implies Leon isn’t able to do certain things defensively yet. How is he going to run his own tough minutes line? One more year with Nuge, might as well use it.

    This is where we diverge.

    Nuge as tough minutes C hasn’t worked well for two years running.

    We can argue about the quality of wingers and if they were sufficient for the job, we can argue about RNH’s ability and many other things, but the bottom line is that outside of the last 6 weeks of the season, the Oilers were getting crushed with RNH playing toughs and lacked secondary scoring.

    Nuge has worked out pretty well as a tough minutes C on defense.

    That’s where Todd used him with a large amount of success in the World Cup, and that could be a tell as to where he’ll use him this year.

    The disconnect is expecting rebuild-era offense from Nuge playing on a tough minutes line on a playoff-level roster and system.

    50 points in that role is and will be adequate, not sure why we’re looking for more.

  6. jm363561 says:

    I have wondered for some time about Leon’s box cars – 77 points last (regular) season. Fantastic. 8th in the league. Really fantastic. Plus / minus +7, 150’ish in the league on a team with the second best goal difference (+35) in the West. I am no expert but that does not seem that fantastic. Question(s):

    Is everyone A Ok with Leon’s D?
    Why does no one ever discuss his D?
    Over 82 games – I repeat, 82 games – does his +/- mean anything?
    If McDavid is +27 why is Drai’s not an awful lot better?
    What is Drai’s +/- away from Connor?
    Would you prefer Leon (at $8m x 8) or Scheifele – 82 points, +18 (on a poorer team -7), $49m over 8 years?

    My view is his D does not justify 8 x 8. Bridge the guy.

    Good night from Manila

  7. jm363561 says:

    Very nice to see Woodguy has just posted. Love your posts man …. and your resilience.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Brian Campbell retired this morning. A wonderful player, he would have scored 1,000 points with the 80s Oilers. Going to miss him.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    This surprised me – I was expecting a drop in PPG from last year but I saw a bump and it made me smile.

    I do think its optimistic – even if Leon does play 1RW 70% of the time will he shoot 16.9% and be on the top 10 PPP/60? Then again, even if his shooting percentage drops maybe his volume increases.

    This re: is a risk – can’t wait to see how it turns out.

  10. jm363561 says:

    russ99: Nuge has worked out pretty well as a tough minutes C on defense.
    ===
    Nuge is -10 for last season, worst on the team by a long long way. Just saying.

  11. Brantford Boy says:

    Ugh, Draisaitl’s contract… my thoughts were 6.75 near the end of the regular season (essentially inflation from the 4, 14, 93, contracts, in line with market value), then the last 20 games was crazy followed by the playoff performance every agent must salivate over… after the hatty game I had him at 7.25 just shy of Tarasenko… $8.25 million per year is probably a very reasonable guess but greed is so much a factor it blemishes the player and agent. Anything more speaks volumes to this kids head space. I truly hope we don’t see a Gaudreau situtation come September. I still maintain, it should be ‘want to win cups, want to play with 97 for 8 more years, here’s 7.25, sign here’.

  12. Aitch says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Aitch,

    That’s how the RE series work. One artist.

    LT,
    A most interesting prediction. I was wondering most about this one and you’ve stuck your neck out. No one can call you a chicken and if he doesn’t hit your lofty numbers we will in all likelihood know why.

    Not always. There was a Can-con one, one time.

    On a less serious note though… can you really burn a bridge with the Oilers? Comrie came back. Bryz signed with the team. The worst way to burn a bridge for Leon might be to sign one and then not live up the expectations.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Note:

    It was 19 and not 29 who was the linchpin in the results for 97’s line. (at the very least 19 wasn’t the drag 27 was)

    No doubt. I have Maroon with McDavid as well. We can also give Puljujarvi some credit for being a year older, but the young man missed some gaping nets a year ago and one imagines McLellan’s patience in this area hasn’t improved 12 months on.

    Bob’s suggestion is interesting on its own, but we should also acknowledge that he may well have heard something that leads him to believe that is the plan. Putting Nuge in a position to succeed is a fine idea. That said, for me betting on what has worked well enough to put LD in the top 10 in league scoring is going to be too attractive to stay away from.

    I have no quarrel with the idea Leon begins the season as 2C, that’s likely. I give him one full period to change his mind. 🙂

  14. supernova says:

    What kind of a shooting percentage do you think is reasonable for Leon?

  15. doritogrande says:

    If Draisaitl wants 9M per year, the first line of the song might become more poignant than anything else.

  16. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    What kind of a shooting percentage do you think is reasonable for Leon?

    I have him shooting more and the percentage lower, but it’s still above average. I have McDavid shooting more too (in the first RE).

  17. npanciroli says:

    What I am curious about this year is are we going to get last year’s Lucic? or 2010-2015 Lucic?

  18. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Note:

    It was 19 and not 29 who was the linchpin in the results for 97’s line. (at the very least 19 wasn’t the drag 27 was)

    If you missed the post where I showed this to be true, here are the results from last year:

    Goals For/60 5v5
    19-97-14– 3.87
    19-97-29– 3.57

    27-97-14– 2.58
    27-97-29– 2.41

    Goal Share 5v5 (GF%)
    19-97-14 – 64.3%
    19-97-29 – 60.4%

    27-97-14 – 76.9%
    27-97-29 – 42.9%

    The reason Drai shows us as having better overall GF/60 results with 97 is an artifact of TOI together skewed heavily to 19 on LW whereas 14’s TOI w/ 97 is heavier with 27 on LW.

    TOI
    19-97-14 – 139 min
    19-97-29 – 538 min

    27-97-14 – 232 min
    27-97-29 – 74 min

    Sorry Lucic and Eberle had a 77% GF% with McDavid and we thought that line didn’t work? How does that make sense? They were much better defensively but didn’t score as much?

  19. Georges says:

    VOR:

    You are a 99+ percentile writer and your writing last night was another fantastic voyage from start to finish. You are one of the brightest of the bright lights in this well-lighted place.

    I take my nostalgia down, unwind and replay it, like Krapp and his tapes. But I put it away when the kids come around. My Camelot will fall to ruins. Their Camelot has yet to be built. It’s as it always was. And it was always right.

  20. digger50 says:

    Based on numbers then 19 should stay up on Connors wing and 27 falls. Also the coach likes to load up so my thoughts are a second line with Drai, Nuge and whoever.

    Nuge. – Drai. – Jokinen/Kassian/Jessie. Could be effective

    27 falls to third line

    There may be enough talent for three good lines. But Todd likes one elite line first, second he likes two loaded lines and third he goes to three balanced lines. First and cecond option should allow Leon to get up over 65 points.

    In regards to Nuge, if he starts the season with button hooks and lack of drive to the net. Oh no.

  21. supernova says:

    Lowetide: I have him shooting more and the percentage lower, but it’s still above average. I have McDavid shooting more too (in the first RE).

    Would 14% plus be fair in your opinion or …..?

  22. Pouzar says:

    I take the day off and LT is off the air??

    “Yer not in the mood? Well you get in the mood!”

  23. OF17 says:

    npanciroli:
    What I am curious about this year is are we going to get last year’s Lucic? or 2010-2015 Lucic?

    I think it comes down to whether he can add quickness over the summer. When he made it to the play last year, he was his usual rambunctious, skilled self, but he spent too much time chasing. It was as if he brought a bazooka to a knife fight. Awesome power, but how the hell do you apply it?

  24. Pouzar says:

    Georges: VOR:
    You are a 99+ percentile writer and your writing last night was another fantastic voyage from start to finish. You are one of the brightest of the bright lights in this well-lighted place.

    +1

  25. Lowetide says:

    supernova: Would 14% plus be fair in your opinion or …..?

    If he takes 200 shots this year and scores 26 goals (as I am suggesting) that puts Leon at 13 percent. I didn’t project to shooting percentage, but that 200 number was in my thought process.

  26. Ducey says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Note:

    Goals For/60 5v5
    19-97-14– 3.87
    19-97-29– 3.57

    Based on my napkin math (assuming TOI/ 60 of 20 min), this is about 8 goals a season difference. Of course very few people play 5 x 5 for 20 minutes. So we would be looking at maybe 6 goals difference. There could be a lot of other things at work there including QoC, defense pairings, and plain old luck.

    In other words, is this really that significant?

  27. kgo says:

    Lucic needs to play with a RHC…Lucic relies heavily on quick give and goes and short quick passes to navigate through the neutral zone. Strome and Lucic will be stapled together at Evens, and Lucic’s EVPs will rebound. Can anyone find his career playing time with LHCs vs RHCs? Kopitar, Horton, who else?

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I think the lines will come down to defensive stability. Leon and Connor have a way to go in the maturity of their games, rightfully so.

    Nuge and Strome are also young and still developing. We might see Jokinen at 3C at some point. They will try to develop the youth but if there are losing streaks I can see them moving young guys to the wings until things stabilize.

    CMD
    Nuge
    Jokinen
    Letestu

    Connor can outscore his mistakes, Nuge is the most experienced young guy. Ideally I think they want Strome at centre because of his right shot. And Leon because he will be too expensive as a winger long term.

    CMD
    Drai
    Strome

  29. godot10 says:

    I think a fair contract for Draisaitl is 8 x $8.5 million. Fair relative to McDavid. Fair relative to his peers at a similar point in their careers. Fair relative to the new contracts that are going to be signed soon by Eichel, Matthews, Johanssen, Tavares, and Seguin.

    Any less, advantage OIlers. Any more, advantage Draisaitl.

  30. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Todd McLellan is a coach who would like to win, and coaches often stay with what worked.

    You can’t state that emphatically enough.

    First, McDavid is going to be first back a lot anyway, that’s just the nature of being a rocket on skates. Second, let’s not turn this fellow into Gilbert Perreault. Third, if you’re running Nuge as a defensive conscience on 97’s line, that implies Leon isn’t able to do certain things defensively yet. How is he going to run his own tough minutes line? One more year with Nuge, might as well use it.

    This is where we diverge.

    Nuge as tough minutes C hasn’t worked well for two years running.

    We can argue about the quality of wingers and if they were sufficient for the job, we can argue about RNH’s ability and many other things, but the bottom line is that outside of the last 6 weeks of the season, the Oilers were getting crushed with RNH playing toughs and lacked secondary scoring.

    I posit that it was the lack of secondary scoring that drove McLellan to put Drai with 97.The coach whiffed on the fact that it was 19 on the line instead of 27 that drove the higher end results, not the RW, but that’s beside the point.

    McLellan started last year with unicorns and was in search of a balanced scoring attack.

    Game 1 lines were:

    27-97-14
    19-29-98
    67-93-42
    15-55-44

    I expect him to start similarly this year with Drai at C.

    When the Oilers hit their first losing streak I expect McLellan to go back to 97-29 and am not sure how long it will stick.

    Probably depends on how much the other lines are scoring.

    Also,

    My prognostication on Drai not spending as much time with 97 this year hinges on this:

    It was 19 and not 29 who was the linchpin in the results for 97’s line. (at the very least 19 wasn’t the drag 27 was)

    97 with 19 was very similar whether or not 29 or 14 was on the wing.
    97 with 27 was very similar whether or not 29 or 14 was on the wing.

    McLellan will start the year with 19 on 97’s wing.

    I think he starts 29 at C.

    Since 19-97 will be a thing and not 27-97 I suggest that their results will be good enough with any of 98, Strome or 93 that the coach won’t feel compelled to throw 29 there like he did last year.

    I agree that Maroon was less of a drag on MacDavids than Lucic was but I am not sure what you mean by linchpin. I do think Maroon did a better job of finishing chances than Lucic did but I certainly don’t see him as key to that line.
    I think the team could run any left winger they have with MacDavid and Drai and that line is still going to have success. If they can find a right winger who can keep up with, and play off of MacDavid, then they can afford to move Drai to center. But if they can’t, I think they will support MacDavid with Drai and ensure themselves one dominant line.
    I believe that one of the right wingers will emerge as a bona fide first line player at some point in the next two years.

  31. Ducey says:

    godot10:
    I think a fair contract for Draisaitl is 8 x $8.5 million.Fair relative to McDavid.Fair relative to his peers at a similar point in their careers.Fair relative to the new contracts that are going to be signed soon by Eichel, Matthews, Johanssen, Tavares, and Seguin.

    Any less, advantage OIlers.Any more, advantage Draisaitl.

    Fair’s got nothing to do with it

  32. Professor Q says:

    godot10:
    I think a fair contract for Draisaitl is 8 x $8.5 million.Fair relative to McDavid.Fair relative to his peers at a similar point in their careers.Fair relative to the new contracts that are going to be signed soon by Eichel, Matthews, Johanssen, Tavares, and Seguin.

    Any less, advantage OIlers.Any more, advantage Draisaitl.

    A fair contract would be $7-7.8 million. Just like his more established peers.

  33. Side says:

    Professor Q: A fair contract would be $7-7.8 million. Just like his more established peers.

    This is what I thought as well. Don’t know why people are inflating Drai’s total so much and saying it’s “fair”.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99: Nuge has worked out pretty well as a tough minutes C on defense.

    That’s where Todd used him with a large amount of success in the World Cup, and that could be a tell as to where he’ll use him this year.

    The disconnect is expecting rebuild-era offense from Nuge playing on a tough minutes line on a playoff-level roster and system.

    50 points in that role is and will be adequate, not sure why we’re looking for more.

    I had a look at every team’s “tough minute C” and their results.

    I didn’t make a post on it, but did a series of tweets.

    RNH doesn’t come out looking good at all.

    The series starts here: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/858691471569977354

    If the Oilers are going to be a Championship team, they need to be good when 97 isn’t on the ice.

    My post about teams with their star on/off the ice shows clearly that the Cup contenders are still good with their star off.

    The Oilers are not there yet.

    Here’s that post: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock: Sorry Lucic and Eberle had a 77% GF% with McDavid and we thought that line didn’t work?How does that make sense?They were much better defensively but didn’t score as much?

    I think the issue there is that they didn’t score enough to out-score the rest of each roster.

    Their goal share was fine, but the Oilers lost.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Going on Bob’s show at 12:35pm today if you want to listen.

    I work for steak, pillows, soup & sammys.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    VOR:

    You are a 99+ percentile writer and your writing last night was another fantastic voyage from start to finish. You are one of the brightest of the bright lights in this well-lighted place.

    100%

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ducey: Based on my napkin math (assuming TOI/ 60 of 20 min), this is about 8 goals a season difference. Of course very few people play 5 x 5 for 20 minutes. So we would be looking at maybe 6 goals difference. There could be a lot of other things at work there including QoC, defense pairings, and plain old luck.

    In other words, is this really that significant?

    Not significant at all imo.

    The significant difference in 97’s results lie on who was playing LW, not RW.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    kgo:
    Lucic needs to play with a RHC…Lucic relies heavily on quick give and goes and short quick passes to navigate through the neutral zone. Strome and Lucic will be stapled together at Evens, and Lucic’s EVPs will rebound. Can anyone find his career playing time with LHCs vs RHCs? Kopitar, Horton, who else?

    Horton was RW, not C.

    Their C was Krejci, who is RHC.

    Interesting line of thinking.

    Will try to have a look.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: I agree that Maroon was less of a drag on MacDavids than Lucic was but I am not sure what you mean by linchpin. I do think Maroon did a better job of finishing chances than Lucic did but I certainly don’t see him as key to that line.
    I think the team could run any left winger they have with MacDavid and Drai and that line is still going to have success. If they can find a right winger who can keep up with, and play off of MacDavid, then they can afford to move Drai to center. But if they can’t, I think they will support MacDavid with Drai and ensure themselves one dominant line.
    I believe that one of the right wingers will emerge as a bona fide first line player at some point in the next two years.

    By linchpin I’m referring to the the goal rate by McDavid’s line with 19 compared to 27.

    There is almost no difference between 29 and 14 on RW when you control for who plays LW.

    McDavid’s line scored much more with 19 on LW than 27 regardless of who played RW.

  41. digger50 says:

    Staples has a good article up today. Anyone interested in a trade for Rienhart?

    Any other Vegas leftovers? These guys likely won’t pass through waivers so you would think they come cheap.

  42. Lowetide says:

    digger50:
    Staples has a good article up today. Anyone interested in a trade for Rienhart?

    Any other Vegas leftovers? These guys likely won’t pass through waivers so you would think they come cheap.

    General managers are always interested in players they acquired, bet there is interest should it come to pass.

  43. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: By linchpin I’m referring to the the goal rate by McDavid’s line with 19 compared to 27.

    There is almost no difference between 29 and 14 on RW when you control for who plays LW.

    McDavid’s line scored much more with 19 on LW than 27 regardless of who played RW.

    Well that makes sense given that Maroon scored 24 goals at even strength last season to Lucic’s 10.

    Maroon was tied for 4th in the NHL last year for ES goals. Is he going to replicate that?

    Lucic’s totals for ES goals were also uncharacteristically low given his recent history.

    I suspect those totals move closer together this season regardless of which guy plays on McDavid’s left wing.

  44. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Horton was RW, not C.

    Their C was Krejci, who is RHC.

    Interesting line of thinking.

    Will try to have a look.

    It’s an interesting theory. If I remember correctly I think lucic and carter went on quite a bit of a heater together in LA.

    I am hoping lucic can make a come back at evens. You see players struggle so often there first year with a new team. Hopefully this isn’t the norm

  45. OmJo says:

    digger50:
    Staples has a good article up today. Anyone interested in a trade for Rienhart?

    Any other Vegas leftovers? These guys likely won’t pass through waivers so you would think they come cheap.

    Speaking of burned bridges… We have a plethora of LD on the team and in the minors alrsady. I hope Chiarelli just let’s it go.

  46. Visually better says:

    kgo:
    Lucic needs to play with a RHC…Lucic relies heavily on quick give and goes and short quick passes to navigate through the neutral zone. Strome and Lucic will be stapled together at Evens, and Lucic’s EVPs will rebound. Can anyone find his career playing time with LHCs vs RHCs? Kopitar, Horton, who else?

    I think there is certainly some validity to this. He relies heavily on short quick passes

  47. Bank Shot says:

    OmJo: Speaking of burned bridges… We have a plethora of LD on the team and in the minors alrsady. I hope Chiarelli just let’s it go.

    Well given Las Vegas’s obvious intentions to be completely terrible and build for the future, I think they likely want to keep the 23 year old Reinhart and will look to dump guys like Garrison, Stoner, and Sbisa instead.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    I suspect those totals move closer together this season regardless of which guy plays on McDavid’s left wing.

    I think you’re right that it will be closer, but Lucic not being able to keep up with the play on 97’s line was a big deal.

    19 kept up and cashed the crazy opportunities that playing with 97 will afford.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18: It’s an interesting theory. If I remember correctly I think lucic and carter went on quite a bit of a heater together in LA.

    I am hoping lucic can make a come back at evens. You see players struggle so often there first year with a new team. Hopefully this isn’t the norm

    Lucic in LA.:

    Kopitar with Lucic
    3.76 GF/60

    Kopitar without Lucic
    2.14 GF/60

    Carter with Lucic
    2.59 GF/60

    Carter without Lucic
    2.21 GF/60

  50. Professor Q says:

    Franson might go to Chicago on a PTO. Should Edmonton have jumped on that?

    I know it very well might turn out like the Versteeg situation, which might further sully future FA draws even with the McDavid Factor©, but at least it’s a shot?

  51. Ducey says:

    Professor Q:
    Franson might go to Chicago on a PTO. Should Edmonton have jumped on that?

    I know it very well might turn out like the Versteeg situation, which might further sully future FA draws even with the McDavid Factor©, but at least it’s a shot?

    I expect he has all kinds of low ball offers for $1 M a season or so.

    He is likely trying to leverage injuries/ poor training camps by others into a bigger bucks. 2 yrs ago he got $3.325 M x 2 from BUF – on Sept 10.

  52. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Indeed this was a huge problem and I believe Looch is aware of it. Milan sent out a summer workout photo about a month back. His trainer this year is Terrell Owens. Questionable team character but if Milan is looking to find his young man feet for this season TO may be one of the better ex-athletes to consult. During his prime the man’s first 10-15 yards off the line were some of the quickest, most explosive in the NFL.

    Curious to see the results in a few more months.

  53. Suntory Hanzo says:

    1) thanks to all for pointing out Vor’s tale yeterday. Backtracked and read it. Lovely stuff.

    2) wonderful having you back Woodguy

    3) don’t post often unless I have been drinking or I think it’s really important. This time it is the latter.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Indeed this was a huge problem and I believe Looch is aware of it. Milan sent out a summer workout photo about a month back. His trainer this year is Terrell Owens. Questionable team character but if Milan is looking to find his young man feet for this season TO may be one of the better ex-athletes to consult. During his prime the man’s first 10-15 yards off the line were some of the quickest, most explosive in the NFL.

    Curious to see the results in a few more months.

    If Lucic can play at his previous levels, this team will be formidable.

    I pray that this happens.

  55. stush18 says:

    Ducey: I expect he has all kinds of low ball offers for $1 M a season or so.

    He is likely trying to leverageinjuries/ poor training camps by others into a bigger bucks. 2 yrs ago he got $3.325 M x 2 from BUF – on Sept 10.

    IM really surprised no one offered him anything substantial.

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Suntory Hanzo,

    Love you too baby!

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Staples has a good article up today. Anyone interested in a trade for Rienhart?

    Any other Vegas leftovers? These guys likely won’t pass through waivers so you would think they come cheap.

    I wouldn’t be against Griff coming back but I think his depth has been replaced by Stanton.

    With 50 contracts (48 after two slides), I don’t think this makes sense unless a contract is going back the other way.

  58. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bank Shot,

    I suspect those totals move closer together this season regardless of which guy plays on McDavid’s left wing.

    I think you’re right that it will be closer, but Lucic not being able to keep up with the play on 97’s line was a big deal.

    19 kept up and cashed the crazy opportunities that playing with 97 will afford.

    Don’t think Maroon kept up any better than Lucic did. He just converted goal mouth passes a lot better than Lucic which is a skill in itself.
    If keeping up to MacDavid is the criteria than Caggulia should be playing the left side.

  59. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lucic in LA.:

    Kopitar with Lucic
    3.76 GF/60

    Kopitar without Lucic
    2.14 GF/60

    Carter with Lucic
    2.59 GF/60

    Carter without Lucic
    2.21 GF/60

    It’s funny how the results always seem to slice, but lucic always seems to make his teammates better.

  60. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wouldn’t be against Griff coming back but I think his depth has been replaced by Stanton.

    With 50 contracts (48 after two slides), I don’t think this makes sense unless a contract is going back the other way.

    Agreed. I thought he handled himself really well in the playoff game he jumped into. I was looking forward to him playing this year. Sekeras injury provided him with the perfect opportunity. Oh well

  61. Bank Shot says:

    stush18: It’s funny how the results always seem to slice, but lucic always seems to make his teammates better.

    McDavid with Lucic- 64.7% GF
    McDavid without Lucic- 61.1 % GF

    McDavid with Maroon- 62% GF
    McDavid without Maroon-62.3% GF

    McDavid and Lucic together had a corsi of 55.3.
    McDavid and Maroon together had a corsi of 52.9.

    Looks like McDavid played just as well or better with Lucic as he did with Maroon if we go by fancies.

    Maybe Maroon just had the hockey gods on his side?

    I know Lucic doesn’t have rocket boots, but he’s a good hockey player by most metrics I can find.

  62. Bank Shot says:

    PS. I hope Lowetide is right about Draisaitl.

    I see some stuff in his numbers which I have mentioned before which make him a candidate for regression.

    Shooting percentage, both individual and team.
    Crazy high PP production rate.

    Hopefully he cements himself as one of the truly elite and proves me wrong on those stats.

    I certainly like his fire in the playoffs. I never had him pegged to be so aggressive, which is a must for playoff hockey.

  63. stush18 says:

    Bank Shot: McDavid with Lucic- 64.7% GF
    McDavid without Lucic- 61.1 % GF

    McDavid with Maroon- 62% GF
    McDavid without Maroon-62.3% GF

    McDavid and Lucic together had a corsi of 55.3.
    McDavid and Maroon together had a corsi of 52.9.

    Looks like McDavid played just as well or better with Lucic as he did with Maroon if we go by fancies.

    Maybe Maroon just had the hockey gods on his side?

    I know Lucic doesn’t have rocket boots, but he’s a good hockey player by most metrics I can find.

    Not to bring up the hall trade again, but we basically all knew that lucic was his replacement.

    So I did some digging on him, and he really is a possession monster. We can argue on whether or not it’s his linemates or not, but he is a first line talent, no doubt in my mind.

    Also, I think you really need to look at all three common linemates together and apart to get a good picture of who’s actually pushing who on the line.

    If I recall, when you looked at lucics WOWY numbers in Boston, he looks pretty good when comparing him, Krejci, and Horton.

    Either way he’s a great hockey player. Hopefully the numbers bounce back at even strength.

  64. Ducey says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Indeed this was a huge problem and I believe Looch is aware of it. Milan sent out a summer workout photo about a month back. His trainer this year is Terrell Owens. Questionable team character but if Milan is looking to find his young man feet for this season TO may be one of the better ex-athletes to consult. During his prime the man’s first 10-15 yards off the line were some of the quickest, most explosive in the NFL.

    Curious to see the results in a few more months.

    Hopefully Looch doesn’t whip out a sharpie and sign the puck after a goal…

  65. Thinker says:

    Maybe Lucic will play with some more emotion. “That’s my team. That’s my Connorback.”

  66. Primetime says:

    IF, and thats a big if, the plan is to ‘pump and dump” Nuge this year, then he must remain at centre and prove he can excel. That is where his highest trade value lies. If he lights it up on Connor’s wing he is still going to get the “anyone can score with McDavid/he’s only a winger” mark down in trade value.

    Nuge (C)-Drai (RW) this year to maximize chance of his personal success this year. Strome at 3C. Drai slides into 2C role in 2018-19 after the Nuge trade.

  67. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    who,

    Agreed and this is why I’m as bullish (if not more) bullish than LT on Yamamoto.

    I went back and watched a bunch of his highlight packages and a few game streams I could find. Kid has a great nose for the net, very good at finding a spot amongst the crowd and getting his stick on the ice. Very good in right around the crease, slippery too, doesn’t take a lot of abuse as he’s going about it.

    Big fan, really pulling for him, hope he can find a way to get transition

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    Don’t think Maroon kept up any better than Lucic did. He just converted goal mouth passes a lot better than Lucic which is a skill in itself.

    I think that “converting goal mouth passes a lot” is = to “keeping up”

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: McDavid with Lucic- 64.7% GF
    McDavid without Lucic- 61.1 % GF

    McDavid with Maroon- 62% GF
    McDavid without Maroon-62.3% GF

    McDavid and Lucic together had a corsi of 55.3.
    McDavid and Maroon together had a corsi of 52.9.

    Looks like McDavid played just as well or better with Lucic as he did with Maroon if we go by fancies.

    Maybe Maroon just had the hockey gods on his side?

    I know Lucic doesn’t have rocket boots, but he’s a good hockey player by most metrics I can find.

    There is no question that 27-97 beat their competition.

    The problem was the rest of the roster lost to their competition and 27-97 didn’t score enough to bail out the other 3 lines.

    The goal rate for 27-97 is waaaaaaaay below 19-97 and this helped win games.

    The goal share of 27-97 was awesome, but they didn’t score enough.

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