Hot August Night

by Lowetide

I mentioned on the Lowdown yesterday that if Ken Holland had signed Brett Connolly, along with his other moves, we could look back on his summer as a success. You may not agree, perhaps the first-round pick or the Alex Chiasson signing snapped the rope for you, maybe the Andrej Sekera buyout was too much by plenty.

I don’t know that this is a playoff team, but believe the organization is better situated for the opportunities ahead. Next summer? Deadline? August? Don’t know. The cloud of the Lucic contract, the unbuyoutable albatross, is down the road. Edmonton will have money next summer. Is that enough for fans this summer?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • New Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

THE 50-MAN LIST INHERITED BY HOLLAND

Holland moved out seven players who either had contracts or were restricted. That number could climb to eight if the team deals Jesse Puljujarvi. The big exits were Andrej Sekera and Milan Lucic, and Tobias Rieder’s slot needed to be replaced with a bona fide winger.

THE 50-MAN LIST AFTER THE SUMMER SHAKEUP

Left wing has seen real turnover, with Lucic and Rieder out, and Neal plus Granlund in. I like Khaira and am curious about Nygard, while Benson is damned close and Gambardella has a puncher’s chance. That’s seven men for four (or five) spots. What would my depth chart look like? Draisaitl, Neal, Granlund, Khaira, Gambardella. Benson is in the AHL unless he tears it up in training camp, and he could, or if Khaira moves to center. How many goals does my RE suggest for these men? Last year’s total (66) is exceeded, but not by as much as one hopes.

Center is gorgeous at the top and violently ill at the bottom, with Ken Holland likely pondering a waiver claim early October. McDavid is the best player in the game, Nugent-Hopkins is a quality No. 2 center and at this point Gaetan Haas looks like the weakest No. 3 pivot in the league. Colby Cave and Kyle Brodziak round out the group, unless Cooper Marody can break through. How many goals does my RE suggest for these men? This year’s centers won’t match last year’s total (78).

Right wing didn’t get solved this summer, not in the same way it would have if Holland could have landed Brett Connolly. Now, that doesn’t mean the issue won’t get solved, but the Oilers will have to look beyond names like Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson and Sam Gagner. I do like Josh Archibald, but would look to Tomas Jurco, Cooper Marody and possibly Kailer Yamamoto as solutions on the skill lines during 2019-20. Jesse Puljujarvi is still in photo, but is fading like that scene in Back to the Future. How many goals does my RE suggest for these men? Last year’s total (55) is in the range with this year’s projections.

Last year’s forwards scored 199, I’m projecting a slight increase from this group.

Left Defense gets a new man, maybe two. My RE has chosen three lefties, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Caleb Jones opening night. It’s also true new coach Dave Tippett has suggested he would prefer Russell on the LH side. That will impact the depth chart. Brandon Manning, William Lagesson and Dmitri Samorukov could see time, and Keegan Lowe is also available. Last year, the LHD scored 18 goals. This year? Small increase.

Right defense has three men, including Adam Larsson, Joel Persson and Matt Benning (in that order). Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear will also be pushing. Last year’s RH blue scored 12, this year’s estimate will be higher.

Last year’s defense scored 30 goals, expect an increase but nothing earth shattering. Overall the Oilers GF will increase, but the team will score below NHL average.

I have Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen sharing the net almost equally, with Koskinen (45) having a slight edge in starts (35). The big change in the goalie totals is a reduced shots against per game total, down from 31.7 to 29.2. Credit Dave Tippett, better health on defense and a bottom six forward group that doesn’t give it all away like motel matches.

The biggest improvement will come in goals against for the 2019-20 Oilers.

PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER, 2019-20

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson

Markus Granlund—Gaetan Haas—Josh Archibald

Jujhar Khaira—Colby Cave—Sam Gagner

Extras: Kyle Brodziak, Tomas Jurco

Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson

Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson

Caleb Jones—Matt Benning

Kris Russell

Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith

Someone is going to freak out about Russell, but remember the No. 7 defenseman plays a lot every year and that never changes. Let’s compare the group listed here to last year’s opening nigh roster.

OPENING NIGHT 2018-19 OILERS

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Ty Rattie

Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto

Jujhar Khaira—Ryan Strome—Jesse Puljujarvi

Tobias Rieder—Kyle Brodziak—Zack Kassian

Alex Chiasson, Drake Cagguila

Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson

Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning

Kris Russell—Evan Bouchard

Jason Garrison

Cam Talbot, Mikko Koskinen

The right wingers in the starting lineup a year ago would go on to score (ahem) 24 goals.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big day today, lots of history and some looking ahead. TSN1260, 10 this morning. This is the anniversary of Black Friday in Edmonton, and we’ll chat about a major moment in this city’s history. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will pop in to talk Oilers expectations and pass along some Igor Ulanov memories. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will be by at 11:00 to talk football (CFL, NFL, college) and some prop betting, and then Michael Bradburn from The Score will help guide us through the mlb trade deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Farnsworth Paradox

OriginalPouzar,

I almost never comment, but I did want to ask a quick question here. This isn’t necessarily directed at any specific poster(s), but this comment just re-triggered a thought that had been bouncing around for a while. How do you (i.e.any of us) reconcile some of the seemingly inconsistent or sometimes mutually exclusive “truisms” (for lack of a better word)? Specifically, I am referring to comments that express disappointment with a rookie “earning a spot” in training camp, since many state that prospects should marinate, etc. while at the same time (again, not specifically trying to call out OP) many here express excitement about competition in training camp. These, to me, seem to be inconsistent statements.

As an example, many state that JP should be on x line regardless of training camp performance. Or will say that Bouchard should be sent down, regardless of training camp performance. And yet, we will happily express excitement over the battle on D (often discussing or implying that the various performances of Persson, Lagesson, Benning, Jones, or even Russel might determine whether they are on the opening night roster).

And I should also point out that I am as guilty as anyone of this inconsistency. But, I am wondering how anyone else might resolve it? Is it simply age of the player? Experience on NA ice? Seen him good? To some extent it may be all of these, but I really do wonder why training camp is viewed as a legit testing ground for aome, but not for others… Can anyone help me with this?

rickithebear

What did my shift and on the fly post show.
Corsi against data is
50-60% dependent on shift on the fly (SOTF) with or without.
10-15% of corsi is dependent on NZ trap or none.
Potential of being 60 – 75% wrong data.

Break the entry & corsi Analysis down to the proper resolution then you might get a real answer!
Russell is a drag LMFAO!

Dmen are 4 times less likely to be involved (G, 1A, 2A) in generating a goal than forwards.

rickithebear

The primary responsibility of defencemen is defence according to Holland, Tippett, Playfair.
When watching a lot of Russell’s shifts,
Nurse is not in the screen view of HD area.
I chalk that up to 3-1-1-1 structure or Nurse Forwards outside the HD area were shots go in 500% more.

I get so bothered by the concept of Corsi as any measure of a player.
1. You must recognize that the success rate of entry for NZ trapped pocession is much diffrent than non NZ trap. Which greatly affects corsi.
You must adjust for that.
2. The entry rate of opps FO win in our DZ ( their OZ) is 100%.
The entry rate of opps from DZ & OZ FO win is greatly reduced.
Must adjust for expected corsi from Zone based FO rates
3. The largest affect on any players corsi is on the fly bench change with or without pocession.
Last year:
Dman; games; shifts; on the fly starts, % of shifts on the Fly (SOTF)
Nurse, 82gm, 2306 shifts, 1164 sotf, 50.48%
Larsson, 79gm, 2243 shifts, 1141 sotf, 50.87%
Russell, 72gm, 1858 shifts, 997 sotf, 53.66%
Klefbom 61gm, 1695 shifts, 759 sotf, 44.78%
Benning, 70gm, 1499 shifts, 895 sotf, 59.71%
Gravel, 36gm, 752 shifts, 455 sotf, 59.71%
Sekera, 24gm, 548 shifts, 322 sotf, 58.76%
Jones, 17gm, 434 shifts, 242 sotf, 55.76%
Manning, 12gm, 239 shifts, 138 sotf, 57.74%

50-60% of Entry & corsi against is affected by (SOTF) shift on the fly with or without pocession.
Entry & Corsi is also dependent on variance from NZ trap & No NZ trap.
What! Currently a 60-75% inaccurate Measure of corsi.

Do you understand why I laugh when it comes to measuring a player on any Data dependent on
1. FO & on fly with or without pocession.
2. Knowning that Corsi For is driven by Forwards who are 4 times more likely to get a goal than Dmen.
3. Understanding the difference when dmen are asked to defend entry in a 1-1 GA structure or 2-1 GA structure, While hoping for a NZ trap to be run.

Wonder which coach did not trust the match-up risk of on the fly changing of Klefbom.
Hitchcock? Both?

ArmchairGM

Jaxon: And Nurse’s partner was Russell vs Johnson. Big difference in partners and Russell is a drag on Nurse.

MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Johnson
vs
McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian/Rattie/Chiasson, Russell

He was with the MacKinnon line about 40% of the time. What about the other ~60%?

Nurse on the other hand spent about 36% of his time with McDavid and another 29% with RNH, leaving just 35% with inferior players.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:When Nurse is playing with McDavid, he’s not playing with Nuge and Drai,

Really? REALLY?? That’s the most ignorant statement you’ve made all week. Have you forgotten that Draisaitl spent 2/3 of his TOI with McDavid?

Jaxon

OriginalPouzar: Also ignoring reality.When Nurse is playing with McDavid, he’s not playing with Nuge and Drai, he’s playing with Kassian or Rattie or Chiasson.

Girard played those minutes with ALL of Rantanen, Landeskog and McKinnon – all of them – not one or two of them – all three of them – the best line in hockey.

And Nurse’s partner was Russell vs Johnson. Big difference in partners and Russell is a drag on Nurse.

MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Johnson
vs
McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian/Rattie/Chiasson, Russell

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Again, ignoring reality. Nurse’s top 3 forward teammates by TOI were McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins. Nothing Colorado can put together tops those 3 guys.

Also ignoring reality. When Nurse is playing with McDavid, he’s not playing with Nuge and Drai, he’s playing with Kassian or Rattie or Chiasson.

Girard played those minutes with ALL of Rantanen, Landeskog and McKinnon – all of them – not one or two of them – all three of them – the best line in hockey.

frjohnk

OriginalPouzar: this is a case where a player’s possession numbers are not reflective of his on-ice contribution

I think possession numbers as most people view them are overrated in their ability to measure a players impact.

I know the skills analysts like Darryl Bealfry, who work with guys like Crosby, Kane, Tavares, etc do use stuff like shot attempts in their data when looking at a player, but it is a small part of the overall database.

They use video with data and provide feedback for the NHLer. The data is everything from
-puck battles won/lost in each zone,
-zone entries/ dump ins ( 1 on 1, 1 on 2, 1 on 3, 2 on1, 2 on 2 , 2 on 3 ete, did they make the correct play)
-zone exits
-passing data that includes stuff like receiving a pass, to how successful they are in passes in each zone and whether or not they are forcing passes
-shooting data, if you can think of it, they have that data
-shot blocks, pass blocks, hits, hits that cause a turnover, disruption of break outs etc is also part of the data
-scoring chances off the rush, off the cycle, off a broken play in the Ozone/Neutral zone

Tonnes more and all incredibly detailed

I believe the on ice stuff is telling the us the result of what is happening on the ice, but it is not telling us how we got there.

Take Lucic for example, his on ice numbers look pretty good, but I bet if we looked at his individual numbers we most likely do not see an NHL player. He isnt good at taking and making a pass, zone entries/exits, generating scoring chances, pretty much everything. The only number we would see good from the individual set would be hits, everything else would be in the toilet.

So how much impact does 1 player out of 10 have on the ice? IMO, how we arrive at a good possession number for Lucic is more the players that Lucic plays with than Lucic himself.

I really hope that us fans will have access to the data that is coming.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: I get all that and, as I said, he is likely to be an elite d-man and pass Nurse but he’s not there and he’s got a ways to go. I acknowledged his age and what he’s done at his age is special.

I didn’t fail to acknowledge Nurse’s TOI with McDavid but playing with McDavid often means playing with McDavid and “fill-in top 6 players”. Girard’s TOI was with the best line in hockey – two elite players and a 3rd solid 1st liner – it trumps McDavid/Rattie, McDavid/Kassian, McDavid/Chiasson, etc.

Again, ignoring reality. Nurse’s top 3 forward teammates by TOI were McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins. Nothing Colorado can put together tops those 3 guys.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM:
First thing I’d like to point out is that Girard turned 21 after the season was over, so he played the entire season as a 20-year-old. It was his Draft+3 season. He’s a year younger than Caleb Jones and a year older than Dmitri Samorukov. This is context that both you guys seemed to miss the importance of. You realise he’s just a few months older than Cale Mak

Girard played 1st pairing comp last year – 39% and 544 minutes against Elites. Nurse has never matched either number. Girard’s partner was Erik Johnson, so it’s not like he was getting dragged around by Doughty or Hedman. Imagine Samurokov playing 1st pair in Edmonton this season!Where was Nurse at the same age? Playing 3rd pair and posting 10 points. Also, Girard had the fewest On The Fly Starts/60 of any COL defenseman.

Then there’s Goals Above Replacement: despite playing a lot vs Elites, Girard posted an 11.2 GAR, worth fully 2 wins. Nurse at the same age posted a -5.7, followed by seasons of -2.4, 3.8 and 3.2. I love Darnell Nurse and don’t want to see him go, but he’s had less positive impact in all his seasons than Girard has in just one. And he wasn’t even legal drinking age yet!

If we look at 5v5 points, Girard in D+2 and D+3 has put up 27, whereas Nurse at the same point in his career had put up a grand total of 6. In D+4 Nurse potted 9 more for a grand total of 15 – not even in the same ballpark.

OP, you’re knocking Girard for playing 40% of his time with MacKinnon (and 25% with Soderberg) but fail to acknowledge that Nurse got to play nearly that (36%) with McDavid plus an additional 29% with RNH. I think we all share the same opinion on which tandem of centers is better.

Nurse has physicality on his side, but I think Girard’s accomplishments at a very young age balance Nurse’s current production. And that contract: $5M for the next 7 years compared to the numbers that posters here are projecting for Nurse is a phenomenal deal. I think the contract pushes the value equation in Girard’s favour for me.

I get all that and, as I said, he is likely to be an elite d-man and pass Nurse but he’s not there and he’s got a ways to go. I acknowledged his age and what he’s done at his age is special.

I didn’t fail to acknowledge Nurse’s TOI with McDavid but playing with McDavid often means playing with McDavid and “fill-in top 6 players”. Girard’s TOI was with the best line in hockey – two elite players and a 3rd solid 1st liner – it trumps McDavid/Rattie, McDavid/Kassian, McDavid/Chiasson, etc.

OriginalPouzar

ducttapeandfoil:
OriginalPouzar,

I guess my reply would be what beside you opinion leads you to say that about Cave? The kid has some interesting possession and GF/GA numbers (bad things did not often happen on his shift). His most common linemates were Reider, Lucic, Khaira and a bit of Kass before his was sent to the top 6. Can’t be terribly surprised his line didn’t score with that “murderer’s row” on his wing. Not saying he’s the answer, but he’s super cheap, and I think there is enough on his resume for him to be 4C at the start the year instead of Brodziak. Plus we gain $500,000 cap by having him as 4C and burying Brodziak in the AHL. Would I’d like to see him with better linemates like Granlund and Archibald. Might be a player.

I don’t know how to answer the question of “what besides my opinion” – that is my opinion and its based on watching the player and the team and the history of hockey and this team. As I said, this is a case where a player’s possession numbers are not reflective of his on-ice contribution and that opinion is simply based on watching. Nope, he doesn’t leak which is why he could be a 12th to 14th forward. He doesn’t add anything either which is why I think a competitive team has a better option.

He is Will Acton like in my mind.

4C wouldn’t be overly egregious, however your post referenced 3C which would be, in my opinion

OriginalPouzar

Reja: Tippett will be fresh and revitalized he knows it’s his last kick of the cat and he has Leon and Connor. Anybody that thinks Tippett isn’t going all in and getting us to the playoffs is wrong. I believe Connor and Leon will see less PK time and he will designate bottom 6 for this. Connor and Leon will be fresher for the last 10 min and the bottom 6 will be more into the flow of the game which builds team unity. Tippett will put players in a position for success. It takes more than 2 all-stars to make the playoffs you need everyone from topto bottom of the line-up contributing

Of course Tippett is going to do everything he can to get the team to the playoffs via winning games – that’s the coach’s job.

He expressed just last week in an interview an apptitude to play both Connor and Leon less on the PK.

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr: Assuming Jones can play second pairing rightD is an even a bigger leap of faith. Benning is by fara better option. Jones plays rover and skates miles. He has problems with one on ones. Was turn-styled a number of times. He did well with Lagessonin the AHL. You are looking at the wrong player that is NHL ready. It does not put you in a minority but in my opinion everyone is allowed to be wrong. Jones appears ready because he was paired with Lagesson.

I think Persson has a better chance at 2RD than Jones, but both are behind Benning and Russell at this point.

ArmchairGM

duct tape and foil:
OriginalPouzar,

I guess my reply would be what beside you opinion leads you to say that about Cave? The kid has some interesting possession and GF/GA numbers (bad things did not often happen on his shift). His most common linemates were Reider, Lucic, Khaira and a bit of Kass before his was sent to the top 6. Can’t be terribly surprised his line didn’t score with that “murderer’s row” on his wing. Not saying he’s the answer, but he’s super cheap, and I think there is enough on his resume for him to be 4C at the start the year instead of Brodziak. Plus we gain $500,000 cap by having him as 4C and burying Brodziak in the AHL. Would I’d like to see him with better linemates like Granlund and Archibald. Might be a player.

Agreed. I think he’s a better bet to be an everyday player than Brodziak.

OriginalPouzar

hags:
Not many people pencilling Bouchard into the opening night roster.

He was there a year ago, and the right side is not exactly Everest.

I know we hate the thought of him being rushed in, but we also should not forget he is a very talented player.I think he will be there from the start.

I’d be surprised and disapointed if he was there.

I have little doubt that he will be one of the most impressive d-men during camp and the exhibition games, likely to produce over a PPG in 4-6 exhibition games and look beautiful on the PP and the outlet. At the same time, we know with almost certainty from the past that such a performance during exhibition means very little as far as NHL readiness.

If Bouch would have been given some actual non-sheltered minutes during the AHL playoffs, it would have told us more than anything he could do during camp. Unfortunately, he barely got an unshelterd minute and may not have taken a defensive zone start at all.

He may be darn close to ready but the organization’s future requires it to be risk-adverse with its most important prospect and there is the ability to do so with 3-4 d-men with 2 plus years of pro experience also on the cusp of NHL readiness.

I believe the player should 100% prove to be a plus AHL player in top 4 minutes and PP1 for a substantial sample before he is an NHL option.

This may be by the turn of the calendar.

ArmchairGM

hags9k:
Not many people pencilling Bouchard into the opening night roster.

He was there a year ago, and the right side is not exactly Everest.

I know we hate the thought of him being rushed in, but we also should not forget he is a very talented player.I think he will be there from the start.

I wouldn’t be surprised, although I’d be more than a little disappointed by that outcome. He’d certainly be an asset to the 1st PP unit but I think he needs to establish his bona fides in the AHL first.

ArmchairGM

Scungilli Slushy: Eeeewwwwww. Definitely a risky play because the player is not yet established as anything certain.

Of course rolling them on a skill player is a safer bet.

To my way if thinking paying Nurse is a far more certain outcome wager. Partly age, partly more NHL `norm` tool kit.

Girard played 1st pairing comp last year as a 20-year-old and paired with Erik Johnson. If that is “not yet established as anything certain” for you… I don’t know what to say.

ArmchairGM

duct tape and foil: You want to pump Neal so you can dump him next summer? Give him two guys who can pass like Drai and Benson.

This is exactly what I’d like to see. If Neal can get back to his usual 20+ goal production, 29 other GM’s will look at 2018-19 as an anomaly rather than the new normal. He won’t be a negative value next summer and Holland will be able to move him off the books fairly easily.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

Jaxon: Yup. I know he’s younger but he’s also a lot smaller and I haven’t heard anyone say Girard is great defensively. So if he’s getting paid for his offensive ability how does he compare?

Nurse 57 5v5 points over last 177GP (10 the overall in the NHL). Nurse had just turned 22 when he started this pace.

Girard 27 5v5 points over last 156GP and he’s 5’10”, 161lbs.

I wouldn’t put his value anywhere near Nurse’s yet. I definitely wouldn’t trade Nurse for Girard.

I think, if Nurse gets away from Russell this season, we’ll see a whole new perspective on how good Nurse really is.

First thing I’d like to point out is that Girard turned 21 after the season was over, so he played the entire season as a 20-year-old. It was his Draft+3 season. He’s a year younger than Caleb Jones and a year older than Dmitri Samorukov. This is context that both you guys seemed to miss the importance of. You realise he’s just a few months older than Cale Mak

Girard played 1st pairing comp last year – 39% and 544 minutes against Elites. Nurse has never matched either number. Girard’s partner was Erik Johnson, so it’s not like he was getting dragged around by Doughty or Hedman. Imagine Samurokov playing 1st pair in Edmonton this season! Where was Nurse at the same age? Playing 3rd pair and posting 10 points. Also, Girard had the fewest On The Fly Starts/60 of any COL defenseman.

Then there’s Goals Above Replacement: despite playing a lot vs Elites, Girard posted an 11.2 GAR, worth fully 2 wins. Nurse at the same age posted a -5.7, followed by seasons of -2.4, 3.8 and 3.2. I love Darnell Nurse and don’t want to see him go, but he’s had less positive impact in all his seasons than Girard has in just one. And he wasn’t even legal drinking age yet!

If we look at 5v5 points, Girard in D+2 and D+3 has put up 27, whereas Nurse at the same point in his career had put up a grand total of 6. In D+4 Nurse potted 9 more for a grand total of 15 – not even in the same ballpark.

OP, you’re knocking Girard for playing 40% of his time with MacKinnon (and 25% with Soderberg) but fail to acknowledge that Nurse got to play nearly that (36%) with McDavid plus an additional 29% with RNH. I think we all share the same opinion on which tandem of centers is better.

Nurse has physicality on his side, but I think Girard’s accomplishments at a very young age balance Nurse’s current production. And that contract: $5M for the next 7 years compared to the numbers that posters here are projecting for Nurse is a phenomenal deal. I think the contract pushes the value equation in Girard’s favour for me.

pts2pndr

russ99:
Tippett is quoted as preferring Russell on the left side, which is pretty smart in my book.

Asssuming that Persson can make the jump from larger ice and less physical play in Sweden to NHL second pair is a pretty large assumption.

I’m going with:

Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Jones
Russell – Benning
Persson

Assuming Jones can play second pairing right D is an even a bigger leap of faith. Benning is by far a better option. Jones plays rover and skates miles. He has problems with one on ones. Was turn-styled a number of times. He did well with Lagesson in the AHL. You are looking at the wrong player that is NHL ready. It does not put you in a minority but in my opinion everyone is allowed to be wrong. Jones appears ready because he was paired with Lagesson.

duct tape and foil

OriginalPouzar,

I guess my reply would be what beside you opinion leads you to say that about Cave? The kid has some interesting possession and GF/GA numbers (bad things did not often happen on his shift). His most common linemates were Reider, Lucic, Khaira and a bit of Kass before his was sent to the top 6. Can’t be terribly surprised his line didn’t score with that “murderer’s row” on his wing. Not saying he’s the answer, but he’s super cheap, and I think there is enough on his resume for him to be 4C at the start the year instead of Brodziak. Plus we gain $500,000 cap by having him as 4C and burying Brodziak in the AHL. Would I’d like to see him with better linemates like Granlund and Archibald. Might be a player.

Glovjuice

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Dare to dream: what if most players met or marginally exceeded expectations by about Jan 1.

RNH-McD-JP
Benson-Drai-Neal
JJ-Marody-Kass
Gran-Gag-Arch
Chia-Haas

Nurse-Lars
Klef-Ben
Jones-Pers
KR

That second line is very plodding.

Top 6 should be (using your top 6)

Benson McDavid Neil
Nuge Drai Pulujarvi

Andy Dufresne

Draisaitl….McDavid….Kassian
Crunchy….Granola….Suite
GOOD……LORD…….HUUUH !

(Thank God for older brothers. Mine introduced me to the likes of Hot August Night, Cat Stevens and Black Sabbath when I was 12 and listening to Ktel Records. Thank you Bro!!)

Reja

Ryan: I’m intrigued by Tippett.

What’s encouraging is the level of hatred I had towards Tippett when he coached the Yotes.

If there’s a coach alive that can string together six talentless hockey players who can suck the life out of and grind the hell out of the other team, it’s Dave Tippett.

That’s what we need.

Tippett will be fresh and revitalized he knows it’s his last kick of the cat and he has Leon and Connor. Anybody that thinks Tippett isn’t going all in and getting us to the playoffs is wrong. I believe Connor and Leon will see less PK time and he will designate bottom 6 for this. Connor and Leon will be fresher for the last 10 min and the bottom 6 will be more into the flow of the game which builds team unity. Tippett will put players in a position for success. It takes more than 2 all-stars to make the playoffs you need everyone from top to bottom of the line-up contributing

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

If Tippet has the eye to try a LW Drai and Chiasson and find an outscoring line the team had, he opens a lot of options. Surely one of the new LW can be in the Rieder spot, a nice player but not high skill.

Nuge can be the defensive conscience to Connor and they can look for the best offensive option RW, or perhaps Nuge can play RW and somebody less experienced can be LW.

Nuge won`t be 3C unless Tippet is going to get radical and even out line TOI. Which I`m not opposed to especially for the top 3. More players engaged, more fresh top talent. Critical come playoff time as I see it, players healthier and more energetic and the lesser troops have had a lot more sorties to get their sites aimed true.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar:
McDavid without Drai has a 39% Goal Share last season, in like 500 minutes.

Yikes!

I`m not sure Connor can drag any set of wingers around because his game is not the same as Crosby`s, who is the usual comparison.

I think this is an important factor that many comments that have a lot of well intended consideration and genuine interest can fail to take in.

After an article a few years ago debunking `chemistry`- basically saying good players can play together – I feel an overlooked piece is style of play and strengths.

Often two puck carriers don`t find `chemistry` but it`s really that they both want to hang on to the puck so if one doesn`t adapt they don`t produce. Or the Oilesr classic of a team of forwards that want to pass the puck into the net, so when the centre ice is clogged they all fail because nobody can beat the goalie clean consistently. Or wants to play the boards well.

LTs balance. Players on lines that bring 3 complimentary game styles to the line. D Pairs that compliment each others game. The Blues are this year`s model of how putting players in the right roles with the right line or pair mates makes the group completely different – same players, far different team.

Which is also why I don`t buy the line of thinking Oiler players are crap and everybody else`s bottom 6 or top 6 is genius. It`s not true.

Which is why when we get established players they turn to crap. Most players are completely dependent on teammates and usage to perform, combined with the coaches keeping their confidence level up.

All of which the Oilers have been terrible doing for decades. Awful human management, awful everything including on ice philosophy. I am really hoping Tippet puts in usable systems and gets 23 going at the same time for the most part, like normal for a good team you might say.

CallighenMan

OriginalPouzar: Fair enough – I may have a misrepresentation of the player in my head.

Just remember who you are responding to (dsf) and what his/her/its agenda is …. i.e. don’t believe or feed the troll …

hags9k

Not many people pencilling Bouchard into the opening night roster.

He was there a year ago, and the right side is not exactly Everest.

I know we hate the thought of him being rushed in, but we also should not forget he is a very talented player. I think he will be there from the start.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Trade protection can only be attached to “UFA years” and not “RFA years” and, yes he has a modified NTC in each of the three available trade protection years – very limited 9 team no trade list.

Eeeewwwwww. Definitely a risky play because the player is not yet established as anything certain.

Of course rolling them on a skill player is a safer bet.

To my way if thinking paying Nurse is a far more certain outcome wager. Partly age, partly more NHL `norm` tool kit.

OriginalPouzar

ductapeandfoil:
3C
Don’t rule out Cave as a 3C at some point. He put up some very nice possession numbers last year. Example. His HDCF% at evens was over 62% with a decent sample size of 340 minutes. The rest of the team (players over 100 5×5 minutes) was 50% or less except Strome who was 52.24%. That’s a stark exception to the rule. Admittedly it was against weak opposition (but also with very weak linemates) and if memory serves he generated a lot of chances last season but didn’t finish. Maybe that’s luck and maybe it’s lack of hands. We will see. He’s a much more intriguing player than a guy like Haas who has never played an NHL game. I’m less worried about 3c than most.

Right there, that paragraph above, is why, at least to me, that possession stats cannot be used on their own to make hockey decisions.

Cave is not an every day NHL hockey player and certainly not a 3C, at least not on a competitive team. He is the definition of a tweener, a 14th forward or call up option to play 10 or less minutes on the 4th line in a pinch

If Cave is playing every day, this team is not good.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Dare to dream: what if most players met or marginally exceeded expectations by about Jan 1.

RNH-McD-JP
Benson-Drai-Neal
JJ-Marody-Kass
Gran-Gag-Arch
Chia-Haas

Nurse-Lars
Klef-Ben
Jones-Pers
KR

duct tape and foil

3C
Don’t rule out Cave as a 3C at some point. He put up some very nice possession numbers last year. Example. His HDCF% at evens was over 62% with a decent sample size of 340 minutes. The rest of the team (players over 100 5×5 minutes) was 50% or less except Strome who was 52.24%. That’s a stark exception to the rule. Admittedly it was against weak opposition (but also with very weak linemates) and if memory serves he generated a lot of chances last season but didn’t finish. Maybe that’s luck and maybe it’s lack of hands. We will see. He’s a much more intriguing player than a guy like Haas who has never played an NHL game. I’m less worried about 3c than most.

Defense
Russell is a 4/5 who can effectively step up into top 4 if need be short term. Overpaid for what he does, but he’s also effective if used in this role. Penciling in a guy like Persson into the top 4 who has never played an NHL game is so Oilers and so destined for failure. He probably needs at least 40 AHL games to adjust if he is as good as some people believe. Counting on this guy to do anything (let alone top 4) is a huge risk. Nurse/Larsson against the toughs with killer zone starts and let Klef/Benning try generate offense. Russell/Jones on the 3rd pair. I would not turn up my nose at any 2RD on an expiring contract from a capped out team if we could use our existing cap space and a guy who could be buried at no cost. Something like Braun for Bear and a 4th rounder so the Flyers can sign Shattenkirk.

Top 6
RNH McDavid Kassian
Benson Drai Neal

You want to pump Neal so you can dump him next summer? Give him two guys who can pass like Drai and Benson. Second line is a good place for the rookie and Neal gets to play with Malkin 2.0 where he had his best success. McDavid gets some skill and some grit and he can pump up those guys as well.

OriginalPouzar

ScungilliSlushy: Good points, I was going to post along those lines. Girard is a fine player but very small for D typically.

Maybe he is the next Rafalski, maybe the Avs see that they have a 5M D that need shelter in the playoffs.

And is hooping their cap as a result. I haven’t checked but Joe was probably too smart for movement clauses, so an out.

I obviously remain unconvinced that outlier type players are a net benefit, usually, without exceptional scoring and skating. So few that I recall are solid two way players when significantly undersized, meaning their average offensive output isn’t worth it.

If you don’t have 5 tools the other couple better be wicked awesome IMO.

Trade protection can only be attached to “UFA years” and not “RFA years” and, yes he has a modified NTC in each of the three available trade protection years – very limited 9 team no trade list.

OriginalPouzar

McDavid without Drai has a 39% Goal Share last season, in like 500 minutes.

Yikes!

OriginalPouzar

GertaRauss:
OriginalPouzar,

It should be today….5pm ET…about 3 hours ago

The window closes 48 hours after the last arbitration case in settled ( either by the arbiter or a contract is agree upon)… although it gets a little muddy with a weekend involved

Edit- it should have been yesterday (Tuesday)

Thank you.

Yes, I knew the “rule” but wasn’t sure when they settled the case. They will have about $5.3M to sign Tkachuk (once Gillies is buried – they are currently running a 23 man roster with 3 goalies on CF).

Not sure what they are going to do.

OriginalPouzar

Sounds like the organization has talked to a number of people related to Skellefteå and Broberg should have a good opportunity to play a substantial amount.

Jaxon

Scungilli Slushy: OriginalPouzar:
Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

Good points, I was going to post along those lines. Girard is a fine player but very small for D typically.

Maybe he is the next Rafalski, maybe the Avs see that they have a 5M D that need shelter in the playoffs.

And is hooping their cap as a result. I haven’t checked but Joe was probably too smart for movement clauses, so an out.

I obviously remain unconvinced that outlier type players are a net benefit, usually, without exceptional scoring and skating. So few that I recall are solid two way players when significantly undersized, meaning their average offensive output isn’t worth it.

If you don’t have 5 tools the other couple better be wicked awesome IMO.

Yup. I know he’s younger but he’s also a lot smaller and I haven’t heard anyone say Girard is great defensively. So if he’s getting paid for his offensive ability how does he compare?

Nurse 57 5v5 points over last 177GP (10 the overall in the NHL). Nurse had just turned 22 when he started this pace.

Girard 27 5v5 points over last 156GP and he’s 5’10”, 161lbs.

I wouldn’t put his value anywhere near Nurse’s yet. I definitely wouldn’t trade Nurse for Girard.

I think, if Nurse gets away from Russell this season, we’ll see a whole new perspective on how good Nurse really is.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: If Neal ends up at RW, then I think we can begin to discuss Tyler Benson as an opening night option.

I think we have been already discussing it and should be continuing to discuss it.

Benson with Nuge, McDavid or Drai in the top 6 could certainly be something.

Benson with Neal could be something given Neal is a shooter and Benson a plus distributor (at least at the AHL level) – would likely need Nuge in the middle of those two for the defensive presence (or Drai now that I think of it given Hitch fixed him).

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: I have watched Granlund play more than 100 games in the last few seasons and the last thing I would describe him as is “speedy”.
He’s a below average skater who appears to work hard on occasion but very little happens when he is on the ice.

Fair enough – I may have a misrepresentation of the player in my head.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Coach Tippett says he is comfortable with either side.

True but Neal does state he prefers the right side if its with a left shot center. Of course, he shouldn’t be demanding anything line/position wise coming off a Lucic-like year, just work hard and do what your told. At the same time, Neal bouncing back and finding his top 6 goal scoring game would be a massive plus, to the extent its possible to get him in his preferred spot, they should try and make it happen. It may not be do-able.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Haas appears to be one of the primary options for No. 3 C (along with Khaira) based on Tippett’s interview with DNB.Based on that, I have Haas on the roster.

Nygard is waiver exempt, that was another reason for my sending him out.

Thanks – Haas is also waivers exempt, as an FYI – just so much flux all over this lineup and roster from forward positions 5-6 to 14.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy: I think the PP Dmen will be Persson and Klefbom.

There’s a lot of chatter about how well Persson walks the line on the PP, gets his shot through and is an above average passer.

Sounds like Bouchard as well – of course, the majority agree that its one-step at a time for Bouch – top 4 minutes and PP1 success in the Bake for a substantial period of time prior to promotion.

I have full confidence that Persson’s PP skill will translate to the NHL but the question is can he play 12-14 5 on 5 minutes a game on a third pairing? He may not be able to do so – of course, he may very well be able to do so.

OriginalPouzar

PinkSocks: I agree, though I think Haas vs Marody is more of the 4C/4RW competition rather than 3C.

IMO 3C is a Khaira vs. Granlund.If Khaira can stay healthy, despite his numbers, is a good option for the top 6 as well.

I’d add Benson to the Khaira/Granlund left wing job – maybe even throw Nygard in there – man, essentially all the left wingers seem like they could potetially play 2 or 3.

I’m not sure I’m on board with Marody and a 4th line spot, whether at C or RW – he’s a skill player and I’d like to see him play with skill. He’ll likely end up bottom 6 if he does make it but I’d like to give him a chance for the middle 6 first before we grinder him.

Ryan

Bling: I don’t think we see any of that garbage from Tippett. Fingers crossed.

I’m intrigued by Tippett.

What’s encouraging is the level of hatred I had towards Tippett when he coached the Yotes.

If there’s a coach alive that can string together six talentless hockey players who can suck the life out of and grind the hell out of the other team, it’s Dave Tippett.

That’s what we need.

Bling

OriginalPouzar: Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

I don’t think we see any of that garbage from Tippett. Fingers crossed.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

Both in current terms are poor motivators IMO. So rewarding the Clydesdale because he knows the farm paths and doddles along.

Turning bad situations around with half competent and half cooperative people is @&$$&? hard.

Especially when the owner says win or be fired, which was his mistake.

You’re talking about maybe 2-3 coaches capable of that. McL and Hitch were never on that list IMO. Good coach list yes, not that list these days.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar:
Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

Good points, I was going to post along those lines. Girard is a fine player but very small for D typically.

Maybe he is the next Rafalski, maybe the Avs see that they have a 5M D that need shelter in the playoffs.

And is hooping their cap as a result. I haven’t checked but Joe was probably too smart for movement clauses, so an out.

I obviously remain unconvinced that outlier type players are a net benefit, usually, without exceptional scoring and skating. So few that I recall are solid two way players when significantly undersized, meaning their average offensive output isn’t worth it.

If you don’t have 5 tools the other couple better be wicked awesome IMO.