Hot August Night

I mentioned on the Lowdown yesterday that if Ken Holland had signed Brett Connolly, along with his other moves, we could look back on his summer as a success. You may not agree, perhaps the first-round pick or the Alex Chiasson signing snapped the rope for you, maybe the Andrej Sekera buyout was too much by plenty.

I don’t know that this is a playoff team, but believe the organization is better situated for the opportunities ahead. Next summer? Deadline? August? Don’t know. The cloud of the Lucic contract, the unbuyoutable albatross, is down the road. Edmonton will have money next summer. Is that enough for fans this summer?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • New Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

THE 50-MAN LIST INHERITED BY HOLLAND

Holland moved out seven players who either had contracts or were restricted. That number could climb to eight if the team deals Jesse Puljujarvi. The big exits were Andrej Sekera and Milan Lucic, and Tobias Rieder’s slot needed to be replaced with a bona fide winger.

THE 50-MAN LIST AFTER THE SUMMER SHAKEUP

Left wing has seen real turnover, with Lucic and Rieder out, and Neal plus Granlund in. I like Khaira and am curious about Nygard, while Benson is damned close and Gambardella has a puncher’s chance. That’s seven men for four (or five) spots. What would my depth chart look like? Draisaitl, Neal, Granlund, Khaira, Gambardella. Benson is in the AHL unless he tears it up in training camp, and he could, or if Khaira moves to center. How many goals does my RE suggest for these men? Last year’s total (66) is exceeded, but not by as much as one hopes.

Center is gorgeous at the top and violently ill at the bottom, with Ken Holland likely pondering a waiver claim early October. McDavid is the best player in the game, Nugent-Hopkins is a quality No. 2 center and at this point Gaetan Haas looks like the weakest No. 3 pivot in the league. Colby Cave and Kyle Brodziak round out the group, unless Cooper Marody can break through. How many goals does my RE suggest for these men? This year’s centers won’t match last year’s total (78).

Right wing didn’t get solved this summer, not in the same way it would have if Holland could have landed Brett Connolly. Now, that doesn’t mean the issue won’t get solved, but the Oilers will have to look beyond names like Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson and Sam Gagner. I do like Josh Archibald, but would look to Tomas Jurco, Cooper Marody and possibly Kailer Yamamoto as solutions on the skill lines during 2019-20. Jesse Puljujarvi is still in photo, but is fading like that scene in Back to the Future. How many goals does my RE suggest for these men? Last year’s total (55) is in the range with this year’s projections.

Last year’s forwards scored 199, I’m projecting a slight increase from this group.

Left Defense gets a new man, maybe two. My RE has chosen three lefties, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Caleb Jones opening night. It’s also true new coach Dave Tippett has suggested he would prefer Russell on the LH side. That will impact the depth chart. Brandon Manning, William Lagesson and Dmitri Samorukov could see time, and Keegan Lowe is also available. Last year, the LHD scored 18 goals. This year? Small increase.

Right defense has three men, including Adam Larsson, Joel Persson and Matt Benning (in that order). Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear will also be pushing. Last year’s RH blue scored 12, this year’s estimate will be higher.

Last year’s defense scored 30 goals, expect an increase but nothing earth shattering. Overall the Oilers GF will increase, but the team will score below NHL average.

I have Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen sharing the net almost equally, with Koskinen (45) having a slight edge in starts (35). The big change in the goalie totals is a reduced shots against per game total, down from 31.7 to 29.2. Credit Dave Tippett, better health on defense and a bottom six forward group that doesn’t give it all away like motel matches.

The biggest improvement will come in goals against for the 2019-20 Oilers.

PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER, 2019-20

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson

Markus Granlund—Gaetan Haas—Josh Archibald

Jujhar Khaira—Colby Cave—Sam Gagner

Extras: Kyle Brodziak, Tomas Jurco

Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson

Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson

Caleb Jones—Matt Benning

Kris Russell

Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith

Someone is going to freak out about Russell, but remember the No. 7 defenseman plays a lot every year and that never changes. Let’s compare the group listed here to last year’s opening nigh roster.

OPENING NIGHT 2018-19 OILERS

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Ty Rattie

Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto

Jujhar Khaira—Ryan Strome—Jesse Puljujarvi

Tobias Rieder—Kyle Brodziak—Zack Kassian

Alex Chiasson, Drake Cagguila

Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson

Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning

Kris Russell—Evan Bouchard

Jason Garrison

Cam Talbot, Mikko Koskinen

The right wingers in the starting lineup a year ago would go on to score (ahem) 24 goals.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big day today, lots of history and some looking ahead. TSN1260, 10 this morning. This is the anniversary of Black Friday in Edmonton, and we’ll chat about a major moment in this city’s history. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will pop in to talk Oilers expectations and pass along some Igor Ulanov memories. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will be by at 11:00 to talk football (CFL, NFL, college) and some prop betting, and then Michael Bradburn from The Score will help guide us through the mlb trade deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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147 Responses to "Hot August Night"

  1. russ99 says:

    Tippett is quoted as preferring Russell on the left side, which is pretty smart in my book.

    Asssuming that Persson can make the jump from larger ice and less physical play in Sweden to NHL second pair is a pretty large assumption.

    I’m going with:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Jones
    Russell – Benning
    Persson

  2. who says:

    Where’s Nygaard?

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    While I have to acknowledge that the signing of a Brett Connolly (in replacement of Chiasson) would make the team “better” this coming year, I am happy that such a move was not made.

    The reason is stated in second paragraph – future opportunities.

    If that signing was made, it essentially eats up the cap currency we have going forward. Many talk about the oodles of cap space going forward but that isn’t quite the case next off-season.

    Yes, there will be apx $25M of cap space but that is with a 10 person roster so it means there is $25M to sign 13 players and, really, apx $18M for 12 players after the Nurse signing.

    Of course, cap space can be “opened up” – a Kris Russell disposition is essential, hopefully for a clean $4M in cap space, however, as of now, there isn’t much cap space for material acquisitions and committing to a “marginal” top 6 guy like Connolly this off-season would have hampered the ability to sign/acquire a more substantial top 6 guy next off-season.

    Keep the currency available until the right acquisition is available that will help move the needle.

    With respect to the cap space, we can talk about the minutia such as Gagner and Kassian and Benning being off the books but that is taken in to account with the need to acquire 12 players with $18M. Those players will need to be re-signed/replaced within that $18M.

  4. Lowetide says:

    who:
    Where’s Nygaard?

    I have him losing out to Jurco in my RE. Doesn’t mean he won’t play.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nygard seems like the logical Rieder replacement to me – the only question is if he’s actually an NHL player – kind of a big question – the answer remains unknown.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joe G. is an option for the 12th-14th forward as he can sub in and out of the lineup and sit in the press box for a few games here or there. We wouldn’t want Benson doing that and Benson needs to be in the top 9 or in the AHL.

    Benson’s placement on the team is somewhat reliant on if the likes of Nygard and Hass look to be actual NHL players with some potential top 9 acumen and if a guy like Granlund looks to maybe be able to contribute to the offence.

    Jurco is a wild card but lets not forget, he’s played 200 NHL games.

  7. godot10 says:

    Hot August night and the leaves hanging down, and the grass on the ground smelling sweet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhGMmmd9Ixs

    Let the healing begin!

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    We talked about it a bit yesterday but if Cooper Marody could “pop” a little at the NHL level and show to be a legit 3C, that would help things out immensely, wouldn’t it?

    What are the chances?

    is there enough skill to give him a chance? Khaira/Marody/Gagner? If they don’t “need” Khaira up the lineup maybe that could work?

    I’m still on the 3C split with pairs McDavid/Kass, Drai/Chiasson, Nuge/Neal

    Puljujarvi/McDavid/Kass
    Benson/Drai/Chiasson
    Khaira/Nuge/Neal
    Nygard/Gagner/Archibald

    Hass

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Benning
    Russell/Jones (Persson)

    Persson (Jones)

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    I would be just fine with Lagesson as 3LD but don’t see it.

    Its not ideal to have either Jones or Persson in the press box so there is a chance that one is in the AHL and Manning is in the NHL solely to sit in the press box.

  10. bwar says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Completely agree on Connolly, sure he would have been an upgrade but we needed a surefire, locked in, 100% no questions asked top 6 winger. I’m of the opinion that the best free agency move the Oilers could have done was chase after Nyquist to play on the first line. That solves so many more long term problems for the Oilers than Smith and Chiasson do.

  11. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide said “Edmonton will have money next summer. Is that enough for fans this summer”

    With due respect, it might not be, since there won’t actually be much money leftover. There has been a fair amount of talk about this on this wonderful blog over the last couple of weeks, and the Oilers cap is still hobbled by Chia for the 2020 offseason, feeding into the 2020-2021 season. Let’s see…

    McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, James Neal, Chiasson, Khaira – $36.1M
    Klefbom, Larsson, Russel – $12.3M
    Koskinen – $4.5M
    Dead Money (Lucic, Pouliot, Sekera) – $4.6M
    TOTAL: $57.5M

    Nurse: Assume $6.5+M <– this may end up higher (damnit Chia!)
    New Subtotal: $64M

    2019-2020 Cap is $81.5M max; can we reasonably assume $83.5M for 2020-2021?

    So next offseason, the Oilers will have $19.5M to fill the "XXXs" below (here, I'm still holding out hope for unicorns):
    XXX – McDavid – Neal
    XXX – Draisaitl – Chiasson
    Khaira – RNH – XXX
    XXX – XXX – XXX
    ————————-
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Russel
    XXX – XXX
    ————————-
    Koskinen
    XXX

    So, $19M for 1 top line winger, 1 2nd line winger, 1 3rd line winger, an entire 4th line, 2 bottom pairing D, 3 extra skaters, and a backup goalie (12 players).

    Teams like Boston and Pittsburgh make this work, but their #4, #5, #6 forwards have way better depth than Chiasson, Neal, and Khaira, and a better #4 defenseman than Russel (no disrespect to any of these fine players).

    Say the Oilers fill out the 3rd line winger, 4th line, bottom pairing D, and 3 extra skaters all for ~ $900,000 (so super cheap)… this takes up ~ $8M. In this scenario, that leaves $11M for 1 top line winger, 1 second line winger, and a backup goalie. And the blueline remains without an upgrade.

    If Koskinen's play requires a 1B-quality goalie as backup, you're looking at ~ $4M or so to round out the goaltending in 2020-2021, leaving only $7M to pick up 2 top 6 wingers and upgrade the blueline.

    So here's the way I'm looking at it: Koskinen's play this season dictates Holland's cap flexibility in 2020-2021…
    – If Koskinen's play is strong in 2019-2020, the Oilers will flirt with the playoffs and maybe even squeak in. The Oilers will also be better able to upgrade their forwards and blueline in the 2020 offseason. A cheap $1.5M backup goalie leaves $9.5M to pickup 2 top 6 wingers and improve the blue… substantial progress can be had.
    – If Koskinen struggles in the 2019-2020 season, it won't even matter if Smith is as good as can be hoped for – the 2020 offseason will be hampered by a poor Koskinen season, since the Oilers will have to once again allocate too much $$$ towards a backup goalie – forward depth will likely remain thin and the blueline will remain incomplete.

    In Koskinen we trust… Go Koskinen!!

  12. godot10 says:

    This is the first time in ages that Lowetide and me actually agree on something.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

    Doing the same thing over (Nurse, Russell) and expecting different results…

    And once one moves Russell over to the left side, how can he withstand the waves of young D,…Jones, Lagesson, Samourukov…behind him.

    Not long

    One has minimize the time that Persson spends in the D-zone, so one cannot play him with Russell. You can try it, but it won’t last long.

  13. godot10 says:

    bwar:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Completely agree on Connolly, sure he would have been an upgrade but we needed a surefire, locked in, 100% no questions asked top 6 winger.I’m of the opinion that the best free agency move the Oilers could have done was chase after Nyquist to play on the first line.That solves so many more long term problems for the Oilers than Smith and Chiasson do.

    Gustav Nyquist is 30 years old at the start of the season. Some people will never learn.

  14. PennersPancakes says:

    godot10,

    Agreed. Persson if hes actually NHL quality shouldnt be with Russell or another rookie. Klefbom is an established defender and has been in the league for 5 years now, he should be able to carry a second pair for sure.

    Theres a part of me that would like to split up Nurse-Larsson so theres a puck mover on each pairing but they might have to be the ones to eat the tough minutes. Excited to see how this plays out!

  15. bwar says:

    godot10: Gustav Nyquist is 30 years old at the start of the season.Some people will never learn.

    Nyquist at 30 years old at $6M per for 3 or 4 years would have been worth it. Coming off the best season of his career and has been fairly consistent in his production for the past half decade. Maybe you would regret the signing in the final year of the deal but I’m already regretting the Smith signing and we haven’t even made it to training camp.

  16. PennersPancakes says:

    bwar,

    Why do you regret the Smith signing so much? 2 mill for a 1B seems decent no? His GP bonus maxes out at an extra mill but that would mean hes played 45GP.

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    bwar: Nyquist at 30 years old at $6M per for 3 or 4 years would have been worth it.Coming off the best season of his career and has been fairly consistent in his production for the past half decade.Maybe you would regret the signing in the final year of the deal but I’m already regretting the Smith signing and we haven’t even made it to training camp.

    Smith has a one year deal built on bonuses. Nyquist could be one of the poster boys for bad signings this year. 30 year old coming off career year. Those signings rarely turn out. At least the Jackets signed him for only four years. Guess GMs are learning.

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    $5M x 7 years for Sam Girard.

    Nurse is licking his lips! Don’t play him PP this year!

  19. Chris says:

    Lowetide I think we need to list Neal on the right wing depth chart as he’s spent most of his career on the right side.

  20. Darth Tu says:

    PennersPancakes:
    bwar,

    Why do you regret the Smith signing so much? 2 mill for a 1B seems decent no? His GP bonus maxes out at an extra mill but that would mean hes played 45GP.

    Or we’ve went through a few rounds of playoffs, and if that’s the end result of the Smith deal then I think everyone should be pretty damned happy.

    I have zero problem with Smith on a one year. Buys us a bit of time for one of the AHL goalies to step up and claim a spot in the NHL next year – after another year of playing real minutes this year. I know we’re used to trading or using free agency to procure goalies, but I’m extremely hopeful one of our prospects turns out to be at the very least a serviceable backup in the next few years.

  21. cowboy bill says:

    It’s difficult to say what players will have chemistry together , or which players will best play the roles required . But I see it more like this .

    Leon-McDavid-Neal
    Granlund-Nuge-Kassian
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson (Hope the two Euro’s can make an impact)
    Khaira-Cave-Archibald

    Jurco & Gagner

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Persson
    Jones-Benning

    Russell (love to see Russell pushed down to 7th D)

    Smith & Koski

    It would be ideal if (Nygard , Haas , Persson & Jurco) can keep the young prospects in Bakersfield another season to marinate .

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: While I have to acknowledge that the signing of a Brett Connolly (in replacement of Chiasson) would make the team “better” this coming year, I am happy that such a move was not made.

    Huge missed opportunity IMO.

  23. Reja says:

    PennersPancakes:
    bwar,

    Why do you regret the Smith signing so much? 2 mill for a 1B seems decent no? His GP bonus maxes out at an extra mill but that would mean hes played 45GP.

    If Smith is healthy he covers the bet plus he himself makes more dinero. If both Goalies stay healthy Tippett will play them accordingly and not run either one physically and more importantly mentally tired. Smith is Tippett’s boy and will be a good mentor for Kosh and with Tippett’s system I’m bullish on the tandem unlike many posters on this forum.

  24. Bling says:

    Tippett is right to have Russell as a LHD.

    No more playing guys on the wrong side, please.

    There is no reason to play Jones, in his first full NHL season, on his wrong side inside the top 4.

    That 2RHD spot is a race between Benning and Persson.

    I have a lot of time for Benning. He will never impress via the eye test but he gets the job done!

  25. dustrock says:

    Lavoie and Broberg both in action today if anyone is really bored.

  26. dustrock says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    $5M x 7 years for Sam Girard.

    Nurse is licking his lips! Don’t play him PP this year!

    Colorado killing it.

  27. LadiesloveSmid says:

    ArmchairGM: Huge missed opportunity IMO.

    Ya this team blows. Looking at Kassian/Chiasson/Neal in the top 6. None of which belong.

    This past season may have been the most disappointing as an oiler fan. Next will be worse with RNH/Drai/Nurse/Chiasson regression

  28. knighttown says:

    With the calendar turning to August tomorrow I wonder if we should stop looking past Derick Brassard as an option for 3C. I think LT has it nailed here…penciling in Gaeten Haas as 3C means you have the worst 3C in the entire 30 team NHL. Every year we have one gigantic hole and this year seems to be no different.

    Brassard had a bit of a rough journey last year moving between 3 teams but it seems his prior season was much better.

    According to PuckIQ he put up 44%/50%/57% CF% against elite, middle and gritensity.

    He put up 21G and 46P and only 6 on the PP and won 49% of his faceoffs.

    Playing 3C/4C on this team would be the definition of gritensity and he’s proven to be able to put a beating on the Gaeten Haas’ of the world.

    If you could get him for Alex Chiasson money now before someone better offers him a PTO I think you do it.

  29. Woogie63 says:

    RNH is a good 1LW or 2LW, but he is not a great 2C, the last two years his numbers popped with McDavid time.

  30. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m still on the 3C split with pairs McDavid/Kass, Drai/Chiasson, Nuge/Neal

    Puljujarvi/McDavid/Kass
    Benson/Drai/Chiasson
    Khaira/Nuge/Neal
    Nygard/Gagner/Archibald

    Hass

    For 2019-2020, I like those lines.
    What are your thoughts on Granlund? I’m just assuming Puljujarvi won’t be here in the fall, so I keep thinking Benson gets shoved onto the top line with McDavid, and Granlund fills in the Rieder role with Drai and Chiasson.

  31. HT Joe says:

    knighttown: With the calendar turning to August tomorrow I wonder if we should stop looking past Derick Brassard as an option for 3C. I think LT has it nailed here…penciling in Gaeten Haas as 3C means you have the worst 3C in the entire 30 team NHL. Every year we have one gigantic hole and this year seems to be no different.

    Release the Unicorns. This way, instead of one massive huge hole at 3C, the Oilers winger depth just gets a bit crappier.
    *Full disclosure, I DO want unicorns, since McDavid can lug around lesser wingers on the top line, Draisatl+Chiasson should be able to lug around a lesser LW against lesser opponents, and RNH has done nothing but fight uphill battles for years.

  32. geowal says:

    If we’re talking about 2020-2021 lineup already, it seems disingenuous to quote XX players signed, worry we need 13 more and then not include ANY of the Bakersfield guys. Sure we don’t know exactly who makes it, but I’d feel pretty safe assuming 2 of 7 D will be young guys from Bake or else Persson, and a forward or 3 occupied by one of Benson, Marody, McLeod, etc.

    I’d frame it as we need 9, and even many of those will likely be internal extension options.

  33. geowal says:

    The other thing Tippett said which doesn’t seem to have been picked up on, is he wants 2 skill line, a dedicated pk and shutdown line, and what sounded like a skilled 4th line. 🦄 Unicorns?

  34. Darth Tu says:

    knighttown:
    With the calendar turning to August tomorrow I wonder if we should stop looking past Derick Brassard as an option for 3C.I think LT has it nailed here…penciling in Gaeten Haas as 3C means you have the worst 3C in the entire 30 team NHL.Every year we have one gigantic hole and this year seems to be no different.

    Brassard had a bit of a rough journey last year moving between 3 teams but it seems his prior season was much better.

    According to PuckIQ he put up 44%/50%/57% CF% against elite, middle and gritensity.

    He put up 21G and 46P and only 6 on the PP and won 49% of his faceoffs.

    Playing 3C/4C on this team would be the definition of gritensity and he’s proven to be able to put a beating on the Gaeten Haas’ of the world.

    If you could get him for Alex Chiasson money now before someone better offers him a PTO I think you do it.

    What about Boyle? He’s another option that’s still floating around out there. Speed being the biggest concern with him.

    CF% is worse than Brassard of course. Still, might be worth a look towards the end of summer if he’s still out there.

  35. HenryDrix says:

    Why not try Khaira as 3C? Shutdown role. The big man can skate, hit, chip in some offence. I think he can be more than a 4th liner.

  36. godot10 says:

    knighttown:
    With the calendar turning to August tomorrow I wonder if we should stop looking past Derick Brassard as an option for 3C.I think LT has it nailed here…penciling in Gaeten Haas as 3C means you have the worst 3C in the entire 30 team NHL.Every year we have one gigantic hole and this year seems to be no different.

    Brassard had a bit of a rough journey last year moving between 3 teams but it seems his prior season was much better.

    According to PuckIQ he put up 44%/50%/57% CF% against elite, middle and gritensity.

    He put up 21G and 46P and only 6 on the PP and won 49% of his faceoffs.

    Playing 3C/4C on this team would be the definition of gritensity and he’s proven to be able to put a beating on the Gaeten Haas’ of the world.

    If you could get him for Alex Chiasson money now before someone better offers him a PTO I think you do it.

    It is early. Better players will become available. It is going to be raining players in September.

  37. McSorley33 says:

    godot10,

    This is the first time in ages that Lowetide and me actually agree on something.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

    Doing the same thing over (Nurse, Russell) and expecting different results…

    And once one moves Russell over to the left side, how can he withstand the waves of young D,…Jones, Lagesson, Samourukov…behind him.

    Not long

    One has minimize the time that Persson spends in the D-zone, so one cannot play him with Russell. You can try it, but it won’t last long.
    ******************************************************************************************************
    The Nurse / Russell pairing has to stop. Agreed.

    But here is the thing….we don’t even know if Persson is an actual NHL player?

    By putting him in the top 4 – you will find out – really, really quickly if he is…..

  38. HT Joe says:

    geowal:
    If we’re talking about 2020-2021 lineup already, it seems disingenuous to quote XX players signed, worry we need 13 more and then not include ANY of the Bakersfield guys. Sure we don’t know exactly who makes it, but I’d feel pretty safe assuming 2 of 7 D will be young guys from Bake or else Persson, and a forward or 3 occupied by one of Benson, Marody, McLeod, etc.

    I’d frame it as we need 9, and even many of those will likely be internal extension options.

    I agree with you. I fully assume many of those players will be internal options. But they still need to be paid, which was my intent (sorry if that wasn’t clear).

  39. HT Joe says:

    geowal:
    The other thing Tippett said which doesn’t seem to have been picked up on, is he wants 2 skill line, a dedicated pk and shutdown line, and what sounded like a skilled 4th line. Unicorns?

    I missed that nugget from Tippett.
    And damnit.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: This is the first time in ages that Lowetide and me actually agree on something.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning

    It will be HUGE for this team if Persson can play 2RD effectively. We already know Benning can and even Russell in a pinch, so this gives Tippett a few options to work with. The way I see it, if Persson can play on the 2nd pairing the result is a team that has three 2nd pairings.

    We wait.

  41. defmn says:

    godot10: It is early.Better players will become available.It is going to be raining players in September.

    I agree. This is an off season when patience will be rewarded.

  42. knighttown says:

    godot10: It is early.Better players will become available.It is going to be raining players in September.

    Yeah I don’t disagree. Cap and roster space is an asset. I’m not advocating paying sticker price but if 5 million dollar players can be had for 2.5M now (Brassard and Gardiner for example) you may not get much better value by waiting.

    Boyle scares me a bit. It feels like Brodziak 2.0…that big, slowish player will hit the cliff and when they do, they’ll go over the edge completely.

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    HT Joe: Granlund fills in the Rieder role

    This. Nygard isn’t the replacement, Granlund is.

  44. defmn says:

    For me the position I will be watching most closely at training camp is 2C. This is, imo, Tippett and Holland’s biggest test to ‘Messier’ Draisaitl and convince him that the long term success of the team requires him to be happy playing as the second line centre.

    At $8.5 mil Draisaitl has to be able to make other players around him better and McDavid does not need anybody to make him better.

    I suppose there is a time when the cap will rise to a point where a team can have $21 mil for two players on one line but I do not see that to be the case for at least several more years – at least not in Edmonton.

    I know the wingers are not great options but this is us. Start as you mean to go. If you want two offensive lines your best two offensive players have to be on different lines.

    This is the story line of training camp for me.

  45. GMB3 says:

    Girard 5×7

    And people here would be thrilled with Nurse at 7 million.

  46. Victoria Oil says:

    who:
    Where’s Nygaard?

    I don’t think Colby Cave is a bona fide NHL’er, i’d swap him out for Nygard and move Khaira to center if necessary.

  47. cowboy bill says:

    defmn,

    There are plenty of story lines . James Neal , Gaetan Haas , Joakim Nygard , Joel Persson , Tomas Jurco , Tyler Benson ………. so much to look forward to .

    Sure they could play Nuge on McDavid’s wing & play Leon with Neal . Who knows ? It’s all up in the air .

  48. defmn says:

    hunter1909: Very good case you present, however I do think Tippett has already said words to the effect that havinga poor man’s 1987 Canada Cup Mario/Gretzky to hammer the NHL with is an irresistible situation that no NHL coach in his right mind could ever possibly break up etc.

    RNH is going to star in the NHL the day he leaves Edmonton. Until that day, use him already at 2nd C.

    If you can convince me that a team can be successful with one scoring line I will agree.

    Play them together on the PP.

  49. Professor Q says:

    defmn:
    For me the position I will be watching most closely at training camp is 2C. This is, imo, Tippett and Holland’s biggest test to ‘Messier’ Draisaitl and convince him that the long term success of the team requires him to be happy playing as the second line centre.

    At $8.5 mil Draisaitl has to be able to make other players around him better and McDavid does not need anybody to make him better.

    I suppose there is a time when the cap will rise to a point where a team can have $21 mil for two players on one line but I do not see that to be the case for at least several more years – at least not in Edmonton.

    I know the wingers are not great options but this is us. Start as you mean to go. If you want two offensive lines your best two offensive players have to be on different lines.

    This is the story line of training camp for me.

    See, people say this but when star wingers are now making $9-12 million per year, I think it’s fine to have McDavid on Draisaitl’s wing (and vice versa). They work well together. I’d love to see more Nuge with McDavid, however. But of course that might be too much blending for some.

  50. defmn says:

    Professor Q: See, people say this but when star wingers are now making $9-12 million per year, I think it’s fine to have McDavid on Draisaitl’s wing (and vice versa). They work well together. I’d love to see more Nuge with McDavid, however. But of course that might be too much blending for some.

    Better drafting, better trading, less dead cap space on those teams. They are not us.

  51. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: Huge missed opportunity IMO.

    I really don’t think it was. He wanted more term and he went for it. There never was an opportunity.

  52. Reja says:

    Professor Q: I really don’t think it was. He wanted more term and he went for it. There never was an opportunity.

    Probably used the Oilers as a bargaining chip and only a mil a year extra would have convinced him to not take the no pressure and lifestyle that the beautiful Florida area offers.

  53. Reja says:

    cowboy bill:
    defmn,

    There are plenty of story lines . James Neal , Gaetan Haas , Joakim Nygard , Joel Persson , Tomas Jurco , Tyler Benson ………. so much to look forward to .

    Sure they could play Nuge on McDavid’s wing & play Leon with Neal . Who knows ? It’s all up in the air .

    Leon Nuge Neal and Connor the other 8 forward spots and batting order or up for grabs as well as 2 D spots. Never in the Oilers history has there been a more uncertain and competitive training camp.
    In Tippett We Trust.

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3:
    Girard 5×7

    And people here would be thrilled with Nurse at 7 million.

    I would trade Nurse for Girard in a NY minute. That’s a GREAT contract.

    I bet you Sakic does it again with Rantanen.

  55. Reja says:

    knighttown: Yeah I don’t disagree.Cap and roster space is an asset.I’m not advocating paying sticker price but if 5 million dollar players can be had for 2.5M now (Brassard and Gardiner for example) you may not get much better value by waiting.

    Boyle scares me a bit.It feels like Brodziak 2.0…that big, slowish player will hit the cliff and when they do, they’ll go over the edge completely.

    I believe Holland has one more move up his sleeve and it involves JP plus for a bonafide centre.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie and Silkanen on the top lines for Canada and Finland.

  57. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lavoie and Silkanen on the top lines for Canada and Finland.

    Silkanen on the top line? That seems.. pleasantly surprising?

    I won’t pretend like I know his story – I had to google to see who he was again. 195th pick and on the top line? Seems promising.

  58. Jordan says:

    After Lavoie’s joke about eating less McDonalds, he’s now my favourite Oilers prospect.

    Shades of Pancakes? We can only hope! He was a beauty!

  59. PennersPancakes says:

    Jordan: Shades of Pancakes? We can only hope! He was a beauty!

    Sign me up!

  60. HT Joe says:

    Reja: I believe Holland has one more move up his sleeve and it involves JP plus for a bonafide centre.

    The ultimate FU to Chia’s proud legacy… Holland trades JP for Ryan Strome. 🙂

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Tippett is quoted as preferring Russell on the left side, which is pretty smart in my book.

    Asssuming that Persson can make the jump from larger ice and less physical play in Sweden to NHL second pair is a pretty large assumption.

    I’m going with:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Jones
    Russell – Benning
    Persson

    Yup, preference is the left side – he’s clearly better on the left side.

    At the same time, I’m sure McLellan’s preference would have been for Russell on the left side as well but the roster didn’t allow for it very often. Hopefully that changes this year.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I have him losing out to Jurco in my RE. Doesn’t mean he won’t play.

    Do you have Hass as more of a certainty for the roster than Nygard?

    It seems to me that Nygard is the more “substantial player” at this point, no?

    Maybe I’m wrong?

    Maybe your thoughts are partially based on Hass verbal about heading back him as opposed to the AHL (s/t a short adjustment stint)?

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot:
    This is the first time in ages that Lowetide and me actually agree on something.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

    Doing the same thing over (Nurse, Russell) and expecting different results…

    And once one moves Russell over to the left side, how can he withstand the waves of young D,…Jones, Lagesson, Samourukov…behind him.

    Not long

    One has minimize the time that Persson spends in the D-zone, so one cannot play him with Russell.You can try it, but it won’t last long.

    I don’t disagree with the pairings (and am in favor of Nurse/Larsson) but I’m not sure I see Tippett starting the season with Russell in the press box even with his verbal re: time defending.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Gustav Nyquist is 30 years old at the start of the season.Some people will never learn.

    Yup, as I mentioned going in to free agency, while I originally had my sights set on Nyquist, once i realized his age, I changed my mind.

    Yup, he would help over the next few years but will be in decline over the course of the contract and when the team could/should moving upwards – just not the right fit for this team at this time.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chris:
    Lowetide I think we need to list Neal on the right wing depth chart as he’s spent most of his career on the right side.

    My preference is to have him on the right side as well as its his preference and his bounce-back to a legit top 6 winger would be massive for the team. Tippett has talked about putting players in a position to succeed.

    At the same time, not to speak for LT, but I think his reason is the right side is full: Kassian, Chiasson, Gagner, Archibald.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    DarthTu:

    I have zero problem with Smith on a one year.Buys us a bit of time for one of the AHL goalies to step up and claim a spot in the NHL next year – after another year of playing real minutes this year. I know we’re used to trading or using free agency to procure goalies, but I’m extremely hopeful one of our prospects turns out to be at the very least a serviceable backup in the next few years.

    AHL goalies or Konovalov – I know little about him and am jaded a bit by KHL goalie success (what a low scoring league) but there is quite a bit of really really strong verbal about this kid – and he’s advanced/older for a just drafted prospect.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Responding to the following from cowboybill:

    But I see it more like this .

    Leon-McDavid-Neal
    Granlund-Nuge-Kassian
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson (Hope the two Euro’s can make an impact)
    Khaira-Cave-Archibald

    Jurco / Gagner

    _________________________

    Gagner was top 5 in P/60 as an Oiler last year and has previous center experience. Hass was playing in Switzerland (and he’s expressed to not be great at faceoff but better than he used to be).

    I’m not convinced he’s an NHL player let alone a 3C.

    Marody produced better in a better league and is younger.

    I know Hass is the better skater but, now that I think about it, what does he have on Marody other than speed and age (that we know about)?

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    knighttown:
    With the calendar turning to August tomorrow I wonder if we should stop looking past Derick Brassard as an option for 3C.I think LT has it nailed here…penciling in Gaeten Haas as 3C means you have the worst 3C in the entire 30 team NHL.Every year we have one gigantic hole and this year seems to be no different.

    Brassard had a bit of a rough journey last year moving between 3 teams but it seems his prior season was much better.

    According to PuckIQ he put up 44%/50%/57% CF% against elite, middle and gritensity.

    He put up 21G and 46P and only 6 on the PP and won 49% of his faceoffs.

    Playing 3C/4C on this team would be the definition of gritensity and he’s proven to be able to put a beating on the Gaeten Haas’ of the world.

    If you could get him for Alex Chiasson money now before someone better offers him a PTO I think you do it.

    What does Hass have over Marody that gets him penciled in to the NHL lineup as a 3C aside from speed and pro experience?

    Is the AHL not a “better” league that the Swiss?

    Even if Brassard did sign a PTO with another team, that doesn’t preclude the Oilers from signing him to a contract – Versteeg style.

  69. PinkSocks says:

    What the Oilers need is someone analytical speaking into Tippet’s ears. I get how dominant 97 and 29 are together. But the question is that if they make the team better as a whole by playing them together.

    If McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line produces GF 55% but RNH as your 2C is GF 45%, why are we stuck on the 97 & 29 combo? Leon and Chiasson were over 50% without McDiety last season. I’d much rather split and have 2 scoring lines, a 3rd line to eat all of the defensive zone starts, and a 4th line of skill and youth.

    RNH – McDavid – Neal
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Chiasson
    Nygard – Granlund – Kassian
    Benson – Marody – Archibald

    Cave and Gagner watching upstairs. Sure Haas or Jurco can find a spot, even Gambardella. Without any other moves this lineup has around $3m in cap space.

  70. PinkSocks says:

    OriginalPouzar: What does Hass have over Marody that gets him penciled in to the NHL lineup as a 3C aside from speed and pro experience?

    I agree, though I think Haas vs Marody is more of the 4C/4RW competition rather than 3C.

    IMO 3C is a Khaira vs. Granlund. If Khaira can stay healthy, despite his numbers, is a good option for the top 6 as well.

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    $5M x 7 years for Sam Girard.

    Nurse is licking his lips! Don’t play him PP this year!

    I think the PP Dmen will be Persson and Klefbom.

    There’s a lot of chatter about how well Persson walks the line on the PP, gets his shot through and is an above average passer.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    geowal:
    The other thing Tippett said which doesn’t seem to have been picked up on, is he wants 2 skill line, a dedicated pk and shutdown line, and what sounded like a skilled 4th line. Unicorns?

    He wants what many of us have thought was the ideal roster:

    Elite vs Elite
    Next 3 best forwards
    Hairy assed vets who can saw off vs everyone or close
    Young offensive forwards auditioning for top 6 work and getting butter soft minutes.

    Last time EDM had that set up was 89/90

    4th line of Murphy-Graves-Gelinas was a killer when they finally all got together ~half way through the season.

    Messier 1C
    Lamb (!) 2C
    MacTavish 3C

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    HTJoe: For 2019-2020, I like those lines.
    What are your thoughts on Granlund?I’m just assuming Puljujarvi won’t be here in the fall, so I keep thinking Benson gets shoved onto the top line with McDavid, and Granlund fills in the Rieder role with Drai and Chiasson.

    I forgot about Granlud – he is a legit bottom 6 NHL player with some skill who can fill in in the middle 6.

    Speedy, responsible, can PK.

    I knock Nygard out of the lineup for now until he proves he’s a legit NHL player, which he may do. Benson or Nygard out for Granlund depending on performance. Khaira can move down for Granlund as well as he’s got more experience playing up the lineup – almost 20 goals a few years ago up the lineup.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    If we’re talking about 2020-2021 lineup already, it seems disingenuous to quote XX players signed, worry we need 13 more and then not include ANY of the Bakersfield guys. Sure we don’t know exactly who makes it, but I’d feel pretty safe assuming 2 of 7 D will be young guys from Bake or else Persson, and a forward or 3 occupied by one of Benson, Marody, McLeod, etc.

    I’d frame it as we need 9, and even many of those will likely be internal extension options.

    Yes, of course, there will be some ELCs (Bouchard, Sammy, McLeod as options) and cheap 2nd contracts (Lagesson, Bear, Marody as options) but that does not change the fact there will be apx $18M for 12 players – some will be under $1M but even if 11 of them are $1M, that leaves room for one material acquisitions and, of course, 11 won’t be $1M (average).

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    HenryDrix:
    Why not try Khaira as 3C?Shutdown role.The big man can skate, hit, chip in some offence.I think he can be more than a 4th liner.

    I think he can be more than a fourth liner as well but he’s played better on the wing and at C and, at this point, hasn’t shown to be able to handle center on the fourth line let alone the 3rd.

  76. Todd Macallan says:

    Broberg was very fun to watch in a game when the rest of Sweden was over matched by the US forwards. Was always noticeable when on the ice, and in a good way, what an absolutely beautiful skater. More physical than I thought he would be as well.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley:
    godot10,

    This is the first time in ages that Lowetide and me actually agree on something.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

    Doing the same thing over (Nurse, Russell) and expecting different results…

    And once one moves Russell over to the left side, how can he withstand the waves of young D,…Jones, Lagesson, Samourukov…behind him.

    Not long

    One has minimize the time that Persson spends in the D-zone, so one cannot play him with Russell. You can try it, but it won’t last long.
    ******************************************************************************************************
    The Nurse / Russell pairing has to stop. Agreed.

    But here is the thing….we don’t even know if Persson is an actual NHL player?

    By putting him in the top 4 – you will find out – really, really quickly if he is…..

    Agreed – my hope/expectation for Persson is that he can be a legit 3RD, or at least survive as I am confident his PP skills will translate.

    The one option we have that we know is a legit NHL d-man is Benning – legit NHL d-man who has consistent good numbers on the 2nd pairing in the past, despite the eye test of many. IIRC, sparkling numbers with Klef.

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Benning

    Issue is rookie with Russ isn’t ideal – Russ can defend but Persson/Jones would be defending ALOT.

    Maybe Lagesson makes sense – a plus defender – would mean Russ as 3RD though.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    For me the position I will be watching most closely at training camp is 2C. This is, imo, Tippett and Holland’s biggest test to ‘Messier’ Draisaitl and convince him that the long term success of the team requires him to be happy playing as the second line centre.

    At $8.5 mil Draisaitl has to be able to make other players around him better and McDavid does not need anybody to make him better.

    I suppose there is a time when the cap will rise to a point where a team can have $21 mil for two players on one line but I do not see that to be the case for at least several more years – at least not in Edmonton.

    I know the wingers are not great options but this is us. Start as you mean to go. If you want two offensive lines your best two offensive players have to be on different lines.

    This is the story line of training camp for me.

    It can be done:

    Puljujarvi/McDavid/Kass
    Benson/Drai/Chiasson
    Khaira (Granlund)/Nuge/Neal

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    VictoriaOil: I don’t think Colby Cave is a bona fide NHL’er, i’d swap him out for Nygard and move Khaira to center if necessary.

    Agree on Cave – thing is we don’t know if Nygard is either….

  80. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you have Hass as more of a certainty for the roster than Nygard?

    It seems to me that Nygard is the more “substantial player” at this point, no?

    Maybe I’m wrong?

    Maybe your thoughts are partially based on Hass verbal about heading back him as opposed to the AHL (s/t a short adjustment stint)?

    Haas appears to be one of the primary options for No. 3 C (along with Khaira) based on Tippett’s interview with DNB. Based on that, I have Haas on the roster.

    Nygard is waiver exempt, that was another reason for my sending him out.

  81. Lowetide says:

    Chris:
    Lowetide I think we need to list Neal on the right wing depth chart as he’s spent most of his career on the right side.

    Coach Tippett says he is comfortable with either side.

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I forgot about Granlud – he is a legit bottom 6 NHL player with some skill who can fill in in the middle 6.

    Speedy, responsible, can PK.

    I knock Nygard out of the lineup for now until he proves he’s a legit NHL player, which he may do.Benson or Nygard out for Granlund depending on performance.Khaira can move down for Granlund as well as he’s got more experience playing up the lineup – almost 20 goals a few years ago up the lineup.

    I have watched Granlund play more than 100 games in the last few seasons and the last thing I would describe him as is “speedy”.
    He’s a below average skater who appears to work hard on occasion but very little happens when he is on the ice.

  83. defmn says:

    Lowetide: Coach Tippett says he is comfortable with either side.

    That opens up a lot more possibilities but is completely different than various things Neal has been reported to say over the summer.

    That said if Neal and Tippett have talked about and come to agreement so much the better.

  84. defmn says:

    As widely speculated Shattenkirk to be bought out. The cap penalty for year two is quite the gulp. I doubt that affects the Oilers directly since Brooks has reported that all Canadian teams were on his 10 team no trade list.

    https://www.tsn.ca/report-new-york-rangers-to-buy-out-d-kevin-shattenkirk-1.1345091

  85. Lowetide says:

    defmn: That opens up a lot more possibilities but is completely different than various things Neal has been reported to say over the summer.

    That said if Neal and Tippett have talked about and come to agreement so much the better.

    If Neal ends up at RW, then I think we can begin to discuss Tyler Benson as an opening night option.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    When does the flames buyout window close? Either today or tomorrow.

    Wondering if they buy out Stone.

  87. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It should be today….5pm ET…about 3 hours ago

    The window closes 48 hours after the last arbitration case in settled ( either by the arbiter or a contract is agree upon)… although it gets a little muddy with a weekend involved

    Edit- it should have been yesterday (Tuesday)

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Very good case you present, however I do think Tippett has already said words to the effect that havinga poor man’s 1987 Canada Cup Mario/Gretzky to hammer the NHL with is an irresistible situation that no NHL coach in his right mind could ever possibly break up etc.

    RNH is going to star in the NHL the day he leaves Edmonton. Until that day, use him already at 2nd C.

    defmn: If you can convince me that a team can be successful with one scoring line I will agree.

    Play them together on the PP.

    He said last week that his initial inclination has been (and is) to start them together, however, the acquisition of James Neal could change up his thought pattern.

    I’m sure they will play many games primarily together as well as games apart.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

    At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Rodrigue looks to be in a good position to become the starter for Team Canada. And there’s a good article on tsn:

    https://www.tsn.ca/canada-s-world-junior-goalie-hopefuls-know-job-is-there-for-the-taking-1.1344948

    https://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/team-canada/men/junior/2019-20/summer-camp/stats/player-stats

    Ya, that’s been my expectation for this year.

  91. defmn says:

    Lowetide: If Neal ends up at RW, then I think we can begin to discuss Tyler Benson as an opening night option.

    Agreed. And a lot of bodies on RW. It is going to be an absolutely fascinating training camp and the Puljujarvi situation still isn’t clear at this time.

  92. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    hunter1909: Very good case you present, however I do think Tippett has already said words to the effect that havinga poor man’s 1987 Canada Cup Mario/Gretzky to hammer the NHL with is an irresistible situation that no NHL coach in his right mind could ever possibly break up etc.

    RNH is going to star in the NHL the day he leaves Edmonton. Until that day, use him already at 2nd C.

    He said last week that his initial inclination has been (and is) to start them together, however, the acquisition of James Neal could change up his thought pattern.

    I’m sure they will play many games primarily together as well as games apart.

    I agree that Neal rather than Lucic offers more options to Tippett. And I don’t think we have all the names that could be at training camp known to us at this time. PTO’s and maybe one more trade are both possibilities imo.

    I’ve never seen so many GM’s still in the office this late in the summer. 😉

  93. Reja says:

    Lowetide: If Neal ends up at RW, then I think we can begin to discuss Tyler Benson as an opening night option.

    Three cheers for opening day starter Benson. Rah Yea Rah.

  94. russ99 says:

    Nuge – Mc David didn’t put up especially good numbers last year, especially considering how well Drai – McDavid did.

    Also Nuge put up better numbers at 2C than at wing last year, despite the lack of good linemates, and historically Drai puts up better numbers at wing than center.

    If we’re splitting up Drai – McDavid I’ll go with Drai – Nuge, with Drai as the winger.

  95. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think the PP Dmen will be Persson and Klefbom.

    There’s a lot of chatter about how well Persson walks the line on the PP, gets his shot through and is an above average passer.

    How are his outlet passes?

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    PinkSocks:

    If McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line produces GF 55% but RNH as your 2C is GF 45%, why are we stuck on the 97/ 29 combo? Leon and Chiasson were over 50% without McDiety last season.I’d much rather split and have 2 scoring lines, a 3rd line to eat all of the defensive zone starts, and a 4th line of skill and youth.

    Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

    Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

    Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

  97. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

    At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

    Good points, I was going to post along those lines. Girard is a fine player but very small for D typically.

    Maybe he is the next Rafalski, maybe the Avs see that they have a 5M D that need shelter in the playoffs.

    And is hooping their cap as a result. I haven’t checked but Joe was probably too smart for movement clauses, so an out.

    I obviously remain unconvinced that outlier type players are a net benefit, usually, without exceptional scoring and skating. So few that I recall are solid two way players when significantly undersized, meaning their average offensive output isn’t worth it.

    If you don’t have 5 tools the other couple better be wicked awesome IMO.

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

    Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

    Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

    Both in current terms are poor motivators IMO. So rewarding the Clydesdale because he knows the farm paths and doddles along.

    Turning bad situations around with half competent and half cooperative people is @&$$&? hard.

    Especially when the owner says win or be fired, which was his mistake.

    You’re talking about maybe 2-3 coaches capable of that. McL and Hitch were never on that list IMO. Good coach list yes, not that list these days.

  99. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar: Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

    Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

    Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

    I don’t think we see any of that garbage from Tippett. Fingers crossed.

  100. Ryan says:

    Bling: I don’t think we see any of that garbage from Tippett. Fingers crossed.

    I’m intrigued by Tippett.

    What’s encouraging is the level of hatred I had towards Tippett when he coached the Yotes.

    If there’s a coach alive that can string together six talentless hockey players who can suck the life out of and grind the hell out of the other team, it’s Dave Tippett.

    That’s what we need.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    PinkSocks: I agree, though I think Haas vs Marody is more of the 4C/4RW competition rather than 3C.

    IMO 3C is a Khaira vs. Granlund.If Khaira can stay healthy, despite his numbers, is a good option for the top 6 as well.

    I’d add Benson to the Khaira/Granlund left wing job – maybe even throw Nygard in there – man, essentially all the left wingers seem like they could potetially play 2 or 3.

    I’m not sure I’m on board with Marody and a 4th line spot, whether at C or RW – he’s a skill player and I’d like to see him play with skill. He’ll likely end up bottom 6 if he does make it but I’d like to give him a chance for the middle 6 first before we grinder him.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: I think the PP Dmen will be Persson and Klefbom.

    There’s a lot of chatter about how well Persson walks the line on the PP, gets his shot through and is an above average passer.

    Sounds like Bouchard as well – of course, the majority agree that its one-step at a time for Bouch – top 4 minutes and PP1 success in the Bake for a substantial period of time prior to promotion.

    I have full confidence that Persson’s PP skill will translate to the NHL but the question is can he play 12-14 5 on 5 minutes a game on a third pairing? He may not be able to do so – of course, he may very well be able to do so.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Haas appears to be one of the primary options for No. 3 C (along with Khaira) based on Tippett’s interview with DNB.Based on that, I have Haas on the roster.

    Nygard is waiver exempt, that was another reason for my sending him out.

    Thanks – Haas is also waivers exempt, as an FYI – just so much flux all over this lineup and roster from forward positions 5-6 to 14.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Coach Tippett says he is comfortable with either side.

    True but Neal does state he prefers the right side if its with a left shot center. Of course, he shouldn’t be demanding anything line/position wise coming off a Lucic-like year, just work hard and do what your told. At the same time, Neal bouncing back and finding his top 6 goal scoring game would be a massive plus, to the extent its possible to get him in his preferred spot, they should try and make it happen. It may not be do-able.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: I have watched Granlund play more than 100 games in the last few seasons and the last thing I would describe him as is “speedy”.
    He’s a below average skater who appears to work hard on occasion but very little happens when he is on the ice.

    Fair enough – I may have a misrepresentation of the player in my head.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: If Neal ends up at RW, then I think we can begin to discuss Tyler Benson as an opening night option.

    I think we have been already discussing it and should be continuing to discuss it.

    Benson with Nuge, McDavid or Drai in the top 6 could certainly be something.

    Benson with Neal could be something given Neal is a shooter and Benson a plus distributor (at least at the AHL level) – would likely need Nuge in the middle of those two for the defensive presence (or Drai now that I think of it given Hitch fixed him).

  107. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: OriginalPouzar:
    Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

    At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

    Good points, I was going to post along those lines. Girard is a fine player but very small for D typically.

    Maybe he is the next Rafalski, maybe the Avs see that they have a 5M D that need shelter in the playoffs.

    And is hooping their cap as a result. I haven’t checked but Joe was probably too smart for movement clauses, so an out.

    I obviously remain unconvinced that outlier type players are a net benefit, usually, without exceptional scoring and skating. So few that I recall are solid two way players when significantly undersized, meaning their average offensive output isn’t worth it.

    If you don’t have 5 tools the other couple better be wicked awesome IMO.

    Yup. I know he’s younger but he’s also a lot smaller and I haven’t heard anyone say Girard is great defensively. So if he’s getting paid for his offensive ability how does he compare?

    Nurse 57 5v5 points over last 177GP (10 the overall in the NHL). Nurse had just turned 22 when he started this pace.

    Girard 27 5v5 points over last 156GP and he’s 5’10”, 161lbs.

    I wouldn’t put his value anywhere near Nurse’s yet. I definitely wouldn’t trade Nurse for Girard.

    I think, if Nurse gets away from Russell this season, we’ll see a whole new perspective on how good Nurse really is.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like the organization has talked to a number of people related to Skellefteå and Broberg should have a good opportunity to play a substantial amount.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    GertaRauss:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It should be today….5pm ET…about 3 hours ago

    The window closes 48 hours after the last arbitration case in settled ( either by the arbiter or a contract is agree upon)… although it gets a little muddy with a weekend involved

    Edit- it should have been yesterday (Tuesday)

    Thank you.

    Yes, I knew the “rule” but wasn’t sure when they settled the case. They will have about $5.3M to sign Tkachuk (once Gillies is buried – they are currently running a 23 man roster with 3 goalies on CF).

    Not sure what they are going to do.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid without Drai has a 39% Goal Share last season, in like 500 minutes.

    Yikes!

  111. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – Haas is also waivers exempt, as an FYI – just so much flux all over this lineup and roster from forward positions 5-6 to 14.

    Yes. Haas however is a center and I don’t think he and Nygard are pushing for the same job. Jurco is waiver eligible, Nygard is not. Nygard is also a winger.

  112. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think we have been already discussing it and should be continuing to discuss it.

    Benson with Nuge, McDavid or Drai in the top 6 could certainly be something.

    Benson with Neal could be something given Neal is a shooter and Benson a plus distributor (at least at the AHL level) – would likely need Nuge in the middle of those two for the defensive presence (or Drai now that I think of it given Hitch fixed him).

    I don’t think we’ve discussed it much, not to the point of drilling down on the risks of Benson playing with Nuge and Neal (that’s going to be a line with some issues on the wing defensively). But yeah, Benson as a roster winger becomes a real possibility if Neal plays RW. I think Archibald can play LW and he might be a better candidate for Nuge-Neal (if Neal is a RW).

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy: Good points, I was going to post along those lines. Girard is a fine player but very small for D typically.

    Maybe he is the next Rafalski, maybe the Avs see that they have a 5M D that need shelter in the playoffs.

    And is hooping their cap as a result. I haven’t checked but Joe was probably too smart for movement clauses, so an out.

    I obviously remain unconvinced that outlier type players are a net benefit, usually, without exceptional scoring and skating. So few that I recall are solid two way players when significantly undersized, meaning their average offensive output isn’t worth it.

    If you don’t have 5 tools the other couple better be wicked awesome IMO.

    Trade protection can only be attached to “UFA years” and not “RFA years” and, yes he has a modified NTC in each of the three available trade protection years – very limited 9 team no trade list.

  114. duct tape and foil says:

    3C
    Don’t rule out Cave as a 3C at some point. He put up some very nice possession numbers last year. Example. His HDCF% at evens was over 62% with a decent sample size of 340 minutes. The rest of the team (players over 100 5×5 minutes) was 50% or less except Strome who was 52.24%. That’s a stark exception to the rule. Admittedly it was against weak opposition (but also with very weak linemates) and if memory serves he generated a lot of chances last season but didn’t finish. Maybe that’s luck and maybe it’s lack of hands. We will see. He’s a much more intriguing player than a guy like Haas who has never played an NHL game. I’m less worried about 3c than most.

    Defense
    Russell is a 4/5 who can effectively step up into top 4 if need be short term. Overpaid for what he does, but he’s also effective if used in this role. Penciling in a guy like Persson into the top 4 who has never played an NHL game is so Oilers and so destined for failure. He probably needs at least 40 AHL games to adjust if he is as good as some people believe. Counting on this guy to do anything (let alone top 4) is a huge risk. Nurse/Larsson against the toughs with killer zone starts and let Klef/Benning try generate offense. Russell/Jones on the 3rd pair. I would not turn up my nose at any 2RD on an expiring contract from a capped out team if we could use our existing cap space and a guy who could be buried at no cost. Something like Braun for Bear and a 4th rounder so the Flyers can sign Shattenkirk.

    Top 6
    RNH McDavid Kassian
    Benson Drai Neal

    You want to pump Neal so you can dump him next summer? Give him two guys who can pass like Drai and Benson. Second line is a good place for the rookie and Neal gets to play with Malkin 2.0 where he had his best success. McDavid gets some skill and some grit and he can pump up those guys as well.

  115. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Dare to dream: what if most players met or marginally exceeded expectations by about Jan 1.

    RNH-McD-JP
    Benson-Drai-Neal
    JJ-Marody-Kass
    Gran-Gag-Arch
    Chia-Haas

    Nurse-Lars
    Klef-Ben
    Jones-Pers
    KR

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    ductapeandfoil:
    3C
    Don’t rule out Cave as a 3C at some point. He put up some very nice possession numbers last year. Example. His HDCF% at evens was over 62% with a decent sample size of 340 minutes. The rest of the team (players over 100 5×5 minutes) was 50% or less except Strome who was 52.24%. That’s a stark exception to the rule. Admittedly it was against weak opposition (but also with very weak linemates) and if memory serves he generated a lot of chances last season but didn’t finish. Maybe that’s luck and maybe it’s lack of hands. We will see. He’s a much more intriguing player than a guy like Haas who has never played an NHL game. I’m less worried about 3c than most.

    Right there, that paragraph above, is why, at least to me, that possession stats cannot be used on their own to make hockey decisions.

    Cave is not an every day NHL hockey player and certainly not a 3C, at least not on a competitive team. He is the definition of a tweener, a 14th forward or call up option to play 10 or less minutes on the 4th line in a pinch

    If Cave is playing every day, this team is not good.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Trade protection can only be attached to “UFA years” and not “RFA years” and, yes he has a modified NTC in each of the three available trade protection years – very limited 9 team no trade list.

    Eeeewwwwww. Definitely a risky play because the player is not yet established as anything certain.

    Of course rolling them on a skill player is a safer bet.

    To my way if thinking paying Nurse is a far more certain outcome wager. Partly age, partly more NHL `norm` tool kit.

  118. hags9k says:

    Not many people pencilling Bouchard into the opening night roster.

    He was there a year ago, and the right side is not exactly Everest.

    I know we hate the thought of him being rushed in, but we also should not forget he is a very talented player. I think he will be there from the start.

  119. CallighenMan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough – I may have a misrepresentation of the player in my head.

    Just remember who you are responding to (dsf) and what his/her/its agenda is …. i.e. don’t believe or feed the troll …

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid without Drai has a 39% Goal Share last season, in like 500 minutes.

    Yikes!

    I`m not sure Connor can drag any set of wingers around because his game is not the same as Crosby`s, who is the usual comparison.

    I think this is an important factor that many comments that have a lot of well intended consideration and genuine interest can fail to take in.

    After an article a few years ago debunking `chemistry`- basically saying good players can play together – I feel an overlooked piece is style of play and strengths.

    Often two puck carriers don`t find `chemistry` but it`s really that they both want to hang on to the puck so if one doesn`t adapt they don`t produce. Or the Oilesr classic of a team of forwards that want to pass the puck into the net, so when the centre ice is clogged they all fail because nobody can beat the goalie clean consistently. Or wants to play the boards well.

    LTs balance. Players on lines that bring 3 complimentary game styles to the line. D Pairs that compliment each others game. The Blues are this year`s model of how putting players in the right roles with the right line or pair mates makes the group completely different – same players, far different team.

    Which is also why I don`t buy the line of thinking Oiler players are crap and everybody else`s bottom 6 or top 6 is genius. It`s not true.

    Which is why when we get established players they turn to crap. Most players are completely dependent on teammates and usage to perform, combined with the coaches keeping their confidence level up.

    All of which the Oilers have been terrible doing for decades. Awful human management, awful everything including on ice philosophy. I am really hoping Tippet puts in usable systems and gets 23 going at the same time for the most part, like normal for a good team you might say.

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Remember when McLellan didn’t understand that the success of the team is largely based on performance with McDavid off the ice and broke up the red hot Rider/Drai/Chiasson line in the name of “more minutes” for the hot Chiasson which led to both lines cratering?

    Remember when the McDavid/Chiasson duo then went 4 games without an even strength goal?

    Remember when McLellan (and Hitch) consistently went back to Chiasson on McDavid’s wing despite it being ineffective?

    If Tippet has the eye to try a LW Drai and Chiasson and find an outscoring line the team had, he opens a lot of options. Surely one of the new LW can be in the Rieder spot, a nice player but not high skill.

    Nuge can be the defensive conscience to Connor and they can look for the best offensive option RW, or perhaps Nuge can play RW and somebody less experienced can be LW.

    Nuge won`t be 3C unless Tippet is going to get radical and even out line TOI. Which I`m not opposed to especially for the top 3. More players engaged, more fresh top talent. Critical come playoff time as I see it, players healthier and more energetic and the lesser troops have had a lot more sorties to get their sites aimed true.

  122. Reja says:

    Ryan: I’m intrigued by Tippett.

    What’s encouraging is the level of hatred I had towards Tippett when he coached the Yotes.

    If there’s a coach alive that can string together six talentless hockey players who can suck the life out of and grind the hell out of the other team, it’s Dave Tippett.

    That’s what we need.

    Tippett will be fresh and revitalized he knows it’s his last kick of the cat and he has Leon and Connor. Anybody that thinks Tippett isn’t going all in and getting us to the playoffs is wrong. I believe Connor and Leon will see less PK time and he will designate bottom 6 for this. Connor and Leon will be fresher for the last 10 min and the bottom 6 will be more into the flow of the game which builds team unity. Tippett will put players in a position for success. It takes more than 2 all-stars to make the playoffs you need everyone from top to bottom of the line-up contributing

  123. Andy Dufresne says:

    Draisaitl….McDavid….Kassian
    Crunchy….Granola….Suite
    GOOD……LORD…….HUUUH !

    (Thank God for older brothers. Mine introduced me to the likes of Hot August Night, Cat Stevens and Black Sabbath when I was 12 and listening to Ktel Records. Thank you Bro!!)

  124. Glovjuice says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Dare to dream: what if most players met or marginally exceeded expectations by about Jan 1.

    RNH-McD-JP
    Benson-Drai-Neal
    JJ-Marody-Kass
    Gran-Gag-Arch
    Chia-Haas

    Nurse-Lars
    Klef-Ben
    Jones-Pers
    KR

    That second line is very plodding.

    Top 6 should be (using your top 6)

    Benson McDavid Neil
    Nuge Drai Pulujarvi

  125. duct tape and foil says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I guess my reply would be what beside you opinion leads you to say that about Cave? The kid has some interesting possession and GF/GA numbers (bad things did not often happen on his shift). His most common linemates were Reider, Lucic, Khaira and a bit of Kass before his was sent to the top 6. Can’t be terribly surprised his line didn’t score with that “murderer’s row” on his wing. Not saying he’s the answer, but he’s super cheap, and I think there is enough on his resume for him to be 4C at the start the year instead of Brodziak. Plus we gain $500,000 cap by having him as 4C and burying Brodziak in the AHL. Would I’d like to see him with better linemates like Granlund and Archibald. Might be a player.

  126. pts2pndr says:

    russ99:
    Tippett is quoted as preferring Russell on the left side, which is pretty smart in my book.

    Asssuming that Persson can make the jump from larger ice and less physical play in Sweden to NHL second pair is a pretty large assumption.

    I’m going with:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Jones
    Russell – Benning
    Persson

    Assuming Jones can play second pairing right D is an even a bigger leap of faith. Benning is by far a better option. Jones plays rover and skates miles. He has problems with one on ones. Was turn-styled a number of times. He did well with Lagesson in the AHL. You are looking at the wrong player that is NHL ready. It does not put you in a minority but in my opinion everyone is allowed to be wrong. Jones appears ready because he was paired with Lagesson.

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Girard likely does turn out to be a stud – for a 21 year old, he’s been a very very nice offensive player.

    At the same time lets not get too ahead of ourselves – he played about 40% of his time with Landeskog, McKinnon and Rantanen, the best line in hockey, he had negative possession stats and relative possession stats and had 60% offensive zone starts. Not a physically intimidating player, not that that is necessarily a negative but lets not blast him past Nurse as far as value quite yet – he’ll very likely get there but there is a ways to go.

    Jaxon: Yup. I know he’s younger but he’s also a lot smaller and I haven’t heard anyone say Girard is great defensively. So if he’s getting paid for his offensive ability how does he compare?

    Nurse 57 5v5 points over last 177GP (10 the overall in the NHL). Nurse had just turned 22 when he started this pace.

    Girard 27 5v5 points over last 156GP and he’s 5’10”, 161lbs.

    I wouldn’t put his value anywhere near Nurse’s yet. I definitely wouldn’t trade Nurse for Girard.

    I think, if Nurse gets away from Russell this season, we’ll see a whole new perspective on how good Nurse really is.

    First thing I’d like to point out is that Girard turned 21 after the season was over, so he played the entire season as a 20-year-old. It was his Draft+3 season. He’s a year younger than Caleb Jones and a year older than Dmitri Samorukov. This is context that both you guys seemed to miss the importance of. You realise he’s just a few months older than Cale Mak

    Girard played 1st pairing comp last year – 39% and 544 minutes against Elites. Nurse has never matched either number. Girard’s partner was Erik Johnson, so it’s not like he was getting dragged around by Doughty or Hedman. Imagine Samurokov playing 1st pair in Edmonton this season! Where was Nurse at the same age? Playing 3rd pair and posting 10 points. Also, Girard had the fewest On The Fly Starts/60 of any COL defenseman.

    Then there’s Goals Above Replacement: despite playing a lot vs Elites, Girard posted an 11.2 GAR, worth fully 2 wins. Nurse at the same age posted a -5.7, followed by seasons of -2.4, 3.8 and 3.2. I love Darnell Nurse and don’t want to see him go, but he’s had less positive impact in all his seasons than Girard has in just one. And he wasn’t even legal drinking age yet!

    If we look at 5v5 points, Girard in D+2 and D+3 has put up 27, whereas Nurse at the same point in his career had put up a grand total of 6. In D+4 Nurse potted 9 more for a grand total of 15 – not even in the same ballpark.

    OP, you’re knocking Girard for playing 40% of his time with MacKinnon (and 25% with Soderberg) but fail to acknowledge that Nurse got to play nearly that (36%) with McDavid plus an additional 29% with RNH. I think we all share the same opinion on which tandem of centers is better.

    Nurse has physicality on his side, but I think Girard’s accomplishments at a very young age balance Nurse’s current production. And that contract: $5M for the next 7 years compared to the numbers that posters here are projecting for Nurse is a phenomenal deal. I think the contract pushes the value equation in Girard’s favour for me.

  128. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil: You want to pump Neal so you can dump him next summer? Give him two guys who can pass like Drai and Benson.

    This is exactly what I’d like to see. If Neal can get back to his usual 20+ goal production, 29 other GM’s will look at 2018-19 as an anomaly rather than the new normal. He won’t be a negative value next summer and Holland will be able to move him off the books fairly easily.

  129. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Eeeewwwwww. Definitely a risky play because the player is not yet established as anything certain.

    Of course rolling them on a skill player is a safer bet.

    To my way if thinking paying Nurse is a far more certain outcome wager. Partly age, partly more NHL `norm` tool kit.

    Girard played 1st pairing comp last year as a 20-year-old and paired with Erik Johnson. If that is “not yet established as anything certain” for you… I don’t know what to say.

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    hags9k:
    Not many people pencilling Bouchard into the opening night roster.

    He was there a year ago, and the right side is not exactly Everest.

    I know we hate the thought of him being rushed in, but we also should not forget he is a very talented player.I think he will be there from the start.

    I wouldn’t be surprised, although I’d be more than a little disappointed by that outcome. He’d certainly be an asset to the 1st PP unit but I think he needs to establish his bona fides in the AHL first.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    hags:
    Not many people pencilling Bouchard into the opening night roster.

    He was there a year ago, and the right side is not exactly Everest.

    I know we hate the thought of him being rushed in, but we also should not forget he is a very talented player.I think he will be there from the start.

    I’d be surprised and disapointed if he was there.

    I have little doubt that he will be one of the most impressive d-men during camp and the exhibition games, likely to produce over a PPG in 4-6 exhibition games and look beautiful on the PP and the outlet. At the same time, we know with almost certainty from the past that such a performance during exhibition means very little as far as NHL readiness.

    If Bouch would have been given some actual non-sheltered minutes during the AHL playoffs, it would have told us more than anything he could do during camp. Unfortunately, he barely got an unshelterd minute and may not have taken a defensive zone start at all.

    He may be darn close to ready but the organization’s future requires it to be risk-adverse with its most important prospect and there is the ability to do so with 3-4 d-men with 2 plus years of pro experience also on the cusp of NHL readiness.

    I believe the player should 100% prove to be a plus AHL player in top 4 minutes and PP1 for a substantial sample before he is an NHL option.

    This may be by the turn of the calendar.

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I guess my reply would be what beside you opinion leads you to say that about Cave? The kid has some interesting possession and GF/GA numbers (bad things did not often happen on his shift). His most common linemates were Reider, Lucic, Khaira and a bit of Kass before his was sent to the top 6. Can’t be terribly surprised his line didn’t score with that “murderer’s row” on his wing. Not saying he’s the answer, but he’s super cheap, and I think there is enough on his resume for him to be 4C at the start the year instead of Brodziak. Plus we gain $500,000 cap by having him as 4C and burying Brodziak in the AHL. Would I’d like to see him with better linemates like Granlund and Archibald. Might be a player.

    Agreed. I think he’s a better bet to be an everyday player than Brodziak.

  133. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Assuming Jones can play second pairing rightD is an even a bigger leap of faith. Benning is by fara better option. Jones plays rover and skates miles. He has problems with one on ones. Was turn-styled a number of times. He did well with Lagessonin the AHL. You are looking at the wrong player that is NHL ready. It does not put you in a minority but in my opinion everyone is allowed to be wrong. Jones appears ready because he was paired with Lagesson.

    I think Persson has a better chance at 2RD than Jones, but both are behind Benning and Russell at this point.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Tippett will be fresh and revitalized he knows it’s his last kick of the cat and he has Leon and Connor. Anybody that thinks Tippett isn’t going all in and getting us to the playoffs is wrong. I believe Connor and Leon will see less PK time and he will designate bottom 6 for this. Connor and Leon will be fresher for the last 10 min and the bottom 6 will be more into the flow of the game which builds team unity. Tippett will put players in a position for success. It takes more than 2 all-stars to make the playoffs you need everyone from topto bottom of the line-up contributing

    Of course Tippett is going to do everything he can to get the team to the playoffs via winning games – that’s the coach’s job.

    He expressed just last week in an interview an apptitude to play both Connor and Leon less on the PK.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    ducttapeandfoil:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I guess my reply would be what beside you opinion leads you to say that about Cave? The kid has some interesting possession and GF/GA numbers (bad things did not often happen on his shift). His most common linemates were Reider, Lucic, Khaira and a bit of Kass before his was sent to the top 6. Can’t be terribly surprised his line didn’t score with that “murderer’s row” on his wing. Not saying he’s the answer, but he’s super cheap, and I think there is enough on his resume for him to be 4C at the start the year instead of Brodziak. Plus we gain $500,000 cap by having him as 4C and burying Brodziak in the AHL. Would I’d like to see him with better linemates like Granlund and Archibald. Might be a player.

    I don’t know how to answer the question of “what besides my opinion” – that is my opinion and its based on watching the player and the team and the history of hockey and this team. As I said, this is a case where a player’s possession numbers are not reflective of his on-ice contribution and that opinion is simply based on watching. Nope, he doesn’t leak which is why he could be a 12th to 14th forward. He doesn’t add anything either which is why I think a competitive team has a better option.

    He is Will Acton like in my mind.

    4C wouldn’t be overly egregious, however your post referenced 3C which would be, in my opinion

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    First thing I’d like to point out is that Girard turned 21 after the season was over, so he played the entire season as a 20-year-old. It was his Draft+3 season. He’s a year younger than Caleb Jones and a year older than Dmitri Samorukov. This is context that both you guys seemed to miss the importance of. You realise he’s just a few months older than Cale Mak

    Girard played 1st pairing comp last year – 39% and 544 minutes against Elites. Nurse has never matched either number. Girard’s partner was Erik Johnson, so it’s not like he was getting dragged around by Doughty or Hedman. Imagine Samurokov playing 1st pair in Edmonton this season!Where was Nurse at the same age? Playing 3rd pair and posting 10 points. Also, Girard had the fewest On The Fly Starts/60 of any COL defenseman.

    Then there’s Goals Above Replacement: despite playing a lot vs Elites, Girard posted an 11.2 GAR, worth fully 2 wins. Nurse at the same age posted a -5.7, followed by seasons of -2.4, 3.8 and 3.2. I love Darnell Nurse and don’t want to see him go, but he’s had less positive impact in all his seasons than Girard has in just one. And he wasn’t even legal drinking age yet!

    If we look at 5v5 points, Girard in D+2 and D+3 has put up 27, whereas Nurse at the same point in his career had put up a grand total of 6. In D+4 Nurse potted 9 more for a grand total of 15 – not even in the same ballpark.

    OP, you’re knocking Girard for playing 40% of his time with MacKinnon (and 25% with Soderberg) but fail to acknowledge that Nurse got to play nearly that (36%) with McDavid plus an additional 29% with RNH. I think we all share the same opinion on which tandem of centers is better.

    Nurse has physicality on his side, but I think Girard’s accomplishments at a very young age balance Nurse’s current production. And that contract: $5M for the next 7 years compared to the numbers that posters here are projecting for Nurse is a phenomenal deal. I think the contract pushes the value equation in Girard’s favour for me.

    I get all that and, as I said, he is likely to be an elite d-man and pass Nurse but he’s not there and he’s got a ways to go. I acknowledged his age and what he’s done at his age is special.

    I didn’t fail to acknowledge Nurse’s TOI with McDavid but playing with McDavid often means playing with McDavid and “fill-in top 6 players”. Girard’s TOI was with the best line in hockey – two elite players and a 3rd solid 1st liner – it trumps McDavid/Rattie, McDavid/Kassian, McDavid/Chiasson, etc.

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I get all that and, as I said, he is likely to be an elite d-man and pass Nurse but he’s not there and he’s got a ways to go. I acknowledged his age and what he’s done at his age is special.

    I didn’t fail to acknowledge Nurse’s TOI with McDavid but playing with McDavid often means playing with McDavid and “fill-in top 6 players”. Girard’s TOI was with the best line in hockey – two elite players and a 3rd solid 1st liner – it trumps McDavid/Rattie, McDavid/Kassian, McDavid/Chiasson, etc.

    Again, ignoring reality. Nurse’s top 3 forward teammates by TOI were McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins. Nothing Colorado can put together tops those 3 guys.

  138. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy

    https://theathletic.com/1106490/2019/08/01/lowetide-kailer-yamamoto-has-the-talent-to-win-a-job-with-the-oilers-on-merit-if-hes-healthy/

  139. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: this is a case where a player’s possession numbers are not reflective of his on-ice contribution

    I think possession numbers as most people view them are overrated in their ability to measure a players impact.

    I know the skills analysts like Darryl Bealfry, who work with guys like Crosby, Kane, Tavares, etc do use stuff like shot attempts in their data when looking at a player, but it is a small part of the overall database.

    They use video with data and provide feedback for the NHLer. The data is everything from
    -puck battles won/lost in each zone,
    -zone entries/ dump ins ( 1 on 1, 1 on 2, 1 on 3, 2 on1, 2 on 2 , 2 on 3 ete, did they make the correct play)
    -zone exits
    -passing data that includes stuff like receiving a pass, to how successful they are in passes in each zone and whether or not they are forcing passes
    -shooting data, if you can think of it, they have that data
    -shot blocks, pass blocks, hits, hits that cause a turnover, disruption of break outs etc is also part of the data
    -scoring chances off the rush, off the cycle, off a broken play in the Ozone/Neutral zone

    Tonnes more and all incredibly detailed

    I believe the on ice stuff is telling the us the result of what is happening on the ice, but it is not telling us how we got there.

    Take Lucic for example, his on ice numbers look pretty good, but I bet if we looked at his individual numbers we most likely do not see an NHL player. He isnt good at taking and making a pass, zone entries/exits, generating scoring chances, pretty much everything. The only number we would see good from the individual set would be hits, everything else would be in the toilet.

    So how much impact does 1 player out of 10 have on the ice? IMO, how we arrive at a good possession number for Lucic is more the players that Lucic plays with than Lucic himself.

    I really hope that us fans will have access to the data that is coming.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Again, ignoring reality. Nurse’s top 3 forward teammates by TOI were McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins. Nothing Colorado can put together tops those 3 guys.

    Also ignoring reality. When Nurse is playing with McDavid, he’s not playing with Nuge and Drai, he’s playing with Kassian or Rattie or Chiasson.

    Girard played those minutes with ALL of Rantanen, Landeskog and McKinnon – all of them – not one or two of them – all three of them – the best line in hockey.

  141. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Also ignoring reality.When Nurse is playing with McDavid, he’s not playing with Nuge and Drai, he’s playing with Kassian or Rattie or Chiasson.

    Girard played those minutes with ALL of Rantanen, Landeskog and McKinnon – all of them – not one or two of them – all three of them – the best line in hockey.

    And Nurse’s partner was Russell vs Johnson. Big difference in partners and Russell is a drag on Nurse.

    MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Johnson
    vs
    McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian/Rattie/Chiasson, Russell

  142. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:When Nurse is playing with McDavid, he’s not playing with Nuge and Drai,

    Really? REALLY?? That’s the most ignorant statement you’ve made all week. Have you forgotten that Draisaitl spent 2/3 of his TOI with McDavid?

  143. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: And Nurse’s partner was Russell vs Johnson. Big difference in partners and Russell is a drag on Nurse.

    MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Johnson
    vs
    McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian/Rattie/Chiasson, Russell

    He was with the MacKinnon line about 40% of the time. What about the other ~60%?

    Nurse on the other hand spent about 36% of his time with McDavid and another 29% with RNH, leaving just 35% with inferior players.

  144. rickithebear says:

    The primary responsibility of defencemen is defence according to Holland, Tippett, Playfair.
    When watching a lot of Russell’s shifts,
    Nurse is not in the screen view of HD area.
    I chalk that up to 3-1-1-1 structure or Nurse Forwards outside the HD area were shots go in 500% more.

    I get so bothered by the concept of Corsi as any measure of a player.
    1. You must recognize that the success rate of entry for NZ trapped pocession is much diffrent than non NZ trap. Which greatly affects corsi.
    You must adjust for that.
    2. The entry rate of opps FO win in our DZ ( their OZ) is 100%.
    The entry rate of opps from DZ & OZ FO win is greatly reduced.
    Must adjust for expected corsi from Zone based FO rates
    3. The largest affect on any players corsi is on the fly bench change with or without pocession.
    Last year:
    Dman; games; shifts; on the fly starts, % of shifts on the Fly (SOTF)
    Nurse, 82gm, 2306 shifts, 1164 sotf, 50.48%
    Larsson, 79gm, 2243 shifts, 1141 sotf, 50.87%
    Russell, 72gm, 1858 shifts, 997 sotf, 53.66%
    Klefbom 61gm, 1695 shifts, 759 sotf, 44.78%
    Benning, 70gm, 1499 shifts, 895 sotf, 59.71%
    Gravel, 36gm, 752 shifts, 455 sotf, 59.71%
    Sekera, 24gm, 548 shifts, 322 sotf, 58.76%
    Jones, 17gm, 434 shifts, 242 sotf, 55.76%
    Manning, 12gm, 239 shifts, 138 sotf, 57.74%

    50-60% of Entry & corsi against is affected by (SOTF) shift on the fly with or without pocession.
    Entry & Corsi is also dependent on variance from NZ trap & No NZ trap.
    What! Currently a 60-75% inaccurate Measure of corsi.

    Do you understand why I laugh when it comes to measuring a player on any Data dependent on
    1. FO & on fly with or without pocession.
    2. Knowning that Corsi For is driven by Forwards who are 4 times more likely to get a goal than Dmen.
    3. Understanding the difference when dmen are asked to defend entry in a 1-1 GA structure or 2-1 GA structure, While hoping for a NZ trap to be run.

    Wonder which coach did not trust the match-up risk of on the fly changing of Klefbom.
    Hitchcock? Both?

  145. rickithebear says:

    What did my shift and on the fly post show.
    Corsi against data is
    50-60% dependent on shift on the fly (SOTF) with or without.
    10-15% of corsi is dependent on NZ trap or none.
    Potential of being 60 – 75% wrong data.

    Break the entry & corsi Analysis down to the proper resolution then you might get a real answer!
    Russell is a drag LMFAO!

    Dmen are 4 times less likely to be involved (G, 1A, 2A) in generating a goal than forwards.

  146. Farnsworth Paradox says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I almost never comment, but I did want to ask a quick question here. This isn’t necessarily directed at any specific poster(s), but this comment just re-triggered a thought that had been bouncing around for a while. How do you (i.e.any of us) reconcile some of the seemingly inconsistent or sometimes mutually exclusive “truisms” (for lack of a better word)? Specifically, I am referring to comments that express disappointment with a rookie “earning a spot” in training camp, since many state that prospects should marinate, etc. while at the same time (again, not specifically trying to call out OP) many here express excitement about competition in training camp. These, to me, seem to be inconsistent statements.

    As an example, many state that JP should be on x line regardless of training camp performance. Or will say that Bouchard should be sent down, regardless of training camp performance. And yet, we will happily express excitement over the battle on D (often discussing or implying that the various performances of Persson, Lagesson, Benning, Jones, or even Russel might determine whether they are on the opening night roster).

    And I should also point out that I am as guilty as anyone of this inconsistency. But, I am wondering how anyone else might resolve it? Is it simply age of the player? Experience on NA ice? Seen him good? To some extent it may be all of these, but I really do wonder why training camp is viewed as a legit testing ground for aome, but not for others… Can anyone help me with this?

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