Summer of ’17

My list didn’t love the Oilers 2017 draft, but the selections of Kailer Yamamoto and Ostap Safin were home runs on my list. Stuart Skinner? Dmitri Samorukov? Kirill Maksimov? Didn’t make my list.

Two years later, up is down and both Yamamoto and Safin are injury worries. On the other hand, Samorukov has emerged as a legit NHL prospect and Maksimov scored 74 goals in his final two junior seasons. Prospects: You never know.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • New Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

Harvest Moon 2017

I ranked 150 names for the 2017 draft, and the Oilers drafted just three of them. Here are my rankings:

No. 11 R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, elusive, offensive. NHLE (36.2).

No. 52 L Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Cze). Big forward, good skater, has plus skills. Nice range.

No. 133 LD Dmitri Samorukov, Guelph Storm (OHL). Giant defenseman, two-way type.

It’s been a wild two years for pretty much every prospects drafted by Edmonton in 2017. The changes in fortune have been drastic, good and bad.

Kailer Yamamoto averaged 37 goals per 82 games in the WHL and is averaging 30 AHL goals per 82 games—or he would be if he could stay healthy and score at his 2018-19 minor league pace (10 goals in 27 games). His skills (great hands, passer, can score goals) are a perfect match for Edmonton, but after two years of rushing him it looks like the team will slow play Yamamoto in 2019-20. He scored 5-3-8 in his final 10 games, but was shut down before the playoffs because of a lingering wrist issue. He had his surgery and should be ready this fall. I remain convinced of his ability, but he has to stay healthy and produce offense at five-on-five in the NHL. I’ll be writing about him later this week. I worry about anything to do with the hands for skill players and Yamamoto has only one avenue to the NHL.

Stuart Skinner finished up his junior career with a tremendous run in the regular season and playoffs with the Swift Current Broncos in 2017-18. In his first pro season Skinner was the No. 1 goalie in Wichita (41, 3.16 .903) and was clearly No. 3 in the minors behind Shane Starrett and Dylan Wells. His four playoff games for Bakersfield were eye openers and we’ll see where he lands this coming season. Oilers before Holland were very high on him, the verbal post-draft from Edmonton management was almost at Devan Dubnyk levels.

Dmitri Samorukov has been on the rise pretty much since his draft day. He is big, fast, strong and tough, with shutdown ability. He also delivered impressive offense in his final 83 junior games (20-53-73) that suggests there’s a more complete defender here. I can’t wait to see his progress in Bakersfield. If he proves to be NHL ready, Samorukov is going to pass about one dozen prospects in the next 12 months. Brock Otten told me the day Samorukov was drafted that he had second-round talent.

Ostap Safin was a solid draft prospect, I had him second round and Edmonton landed him in the fourth round. He had a solid draft plus one (26 goals) in the QMJHL but had all kinds of injury issues last season. He was a shell by the playoffs and we’ll see what this season brings. Safin lost an important development year, could the Oilers play him in Wichita in 2019-20? He looked good in his AHL time in 2018.

Kirill Maksimov didn’t make my list and I favor the OHL in a big way. Sometimes these kids surprise you, and Maksimov offered a clue in his draft year with 19 goals in his final 33 games (2016-17). He has since blossomed and should be able to earn work on a skill line in Bakersfield this season. Can he score 20 goals in Bakersfield?

Skyler Brind’Amour was chosen in the sixth round and would fit both my definition of ‘draft and follow’ and ‘draft and college’ for late picks. He’s big and he can skate, but in two BCHL seasons he did not dominate offensively. His college career (Quinnipiac) begins this fall.

Philip Kemp is a big, strong shutdown defenseman with enough skill to play internationally for the USA in feature tournaments. That’s a difficult team to make and likely the top bullet point for this young player. He just completed his sophomore season and has two more Yale winters to go before turning pro. He is a promising prospect.

This draft was the first one featuring Keith Gretzky working in tandem with Bob Green and his group. On draft weekend I loved the Yamamoto pick (I had him just outside the top 10) and Safin, and was curious about the rest. Now, two years later, Samorukov has more momentum than anyone drafted by Edmonton that weekend, and Maksimov enters pro hockey with a clear path to a Bakersfield skill line. Skinner had a good pro debut, Kemp is a quality shutdown prospect. Only Brind’Amour remains in about the same spot as he was on draft day, with several years in college ahead.

Yamamoto and Safin were bitten by injuries and we’ll have to see how things go this winter. If both are healthy, and Yamamoto’s hands remain magic, then we’re going to be talking about this draft a lot between now and spring.

OILERS PROSPECTS

Sean Tierney is pretty amazing with his charts and graphs, and here he brings alive Manny’s (Emmanuel Perry) chances of prospects making the NHL (here). So, Evan Bouchard has a 99 percent chance, Marody 88 and Yamamoto 80. Tyler Benson just 64 percent. Caleb Jones 80 percent, Samorukov 74 percent, Lagesson (45) and Bear (44) less of a chance. You can disregard, but these are two of the brightest minds I know, so the graph is worth pondering.

Another giant brain, Sunil is a friend who just so happens to have a combination of great insight, clarity and the ability to make strong points in 2,000 words or less. Have a read on James Neal.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic pops in as we’ll discuss all things Oilers, including Jesse Puljujarvi and reasonable expectations for Edmonton this winter. Jonah Birenbaum, senior baseball writer for The Score will chat trade deadline deals, and Corey Masisak from The Athletic NYC will chat about the big Devils-Vegas trade. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter, see you on the radio!

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118 Responses to "Summer of ’17"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think lots in the community are fairly down on Yamamoto and his progress to date.

    In my opinion, his development has been mismanaged, once again – not quite to the extent of Puljujarvi but similar.

    I think giving him NHL games in both his draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 seasons were mistakes. They led to “yo-yoing” and slow starts to his WHL and AHL seasons – it took him a while in each case to gain traction. I also think they gave the fanbase unreasonable expectations on the time line for his development and “arrival”. Yamamoto is a 22nd overall pick, not a top 5 or even top 10 pick. The reasonable expectation should be a full AHL season in his rookie pro year (last year) and likely AHL time in his second pro year (this year).

    Once Yamamoto gained traction in the AHL, he proved to be a plus/elite level AHL player – he started to drive offence even playing with the likes of Tyler Vesel and Esposito. He started creating scoring chances consistently and eventually started scoring goal.

    Injuries cratered the season and his development and its essential that he start the year in the AHL and get that development time he missed last year due to injury. Assuming health, I hate little doubt he’s a PPG (or thereabouts) AHL player.

    Let him play 30-40 games before he’s an NHL option.

    Go Kailer!

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    LT, what is the line of “Making the NHL”?

    I take it it means some level of sustained presence, because a few of these guys have already played in the bigs……so they made it…….for a given value of made it.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin started his draft plus 1 year with up arrows but injuries have really crated the last season and half and last season was essentially lost.

    I’m generally not on board with over-age season for “real prospects”, however, given the lost development year and the depth of skill at the AHL level, I’m not against him going back to Halifax for another year and playing with Lavoie.

    I’m not sure if Halifax will have room for him as an over-ager.

    He could be ECHL bound to start the year.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    LT, what is the line of “Making the NHL”?

    I take it it means some level of sustained presence, because a few of these guys have already played in the bigs……so they made it…….for a given value of made it.

    I reached out and believe it is 200 games. When I get confirmation, will pass along.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    What’s there really to say about Samorukov?

    Its tough to temper expectations when you watch him play and see his skillset and combine that with what he’s done over the last 18 months.

    I know it was really the 2nd half of last year that he exploded but it was at the World Juniors, not this past year, but two years ago that he really started to turn up – he gained ice through the tournament and was top 4 for Russia at the end. Of course, he was dominant in the tournament this past year.

    His offence is gravy for me as he really is a defence first guy – an aggressive defender – watching him defend the blueline off the rush, aggressively, makes me smile. His board battles in the defensive zone are off the charts – he consistently comes out with the puck.

    Of course, add that to plus skating, great vision, a nice shot and decent hockey IQ.

    There is talk about him playing in the NHL this year. I won’t suggest that. In fact, I think he starts on the 3rd pair in Bakersfield with Logan Day. My goal for him is to work his way up the depth chart to be a legit top 4 guy with PK time. PP time may be at a premium with the likes of Bouchard, Bear, Day on the team.

    Don’t get me wrong, maybe he does “pop” in his first year pro but the CHL to NHL is a large gap and I won’t get ahead of myself even though I see legit top pairing potential in this player. Its just potential for now, he hasn’t even turned pro yet so I will be reasonable with his development timeline.

  6. McNuge93 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    In my opinion, his development has been mismanaged, once again – not quite to the extent of Puljujarvi but similar.

    I think giving him NHL games in both his draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 seasons were mistakes.They led to “yo-yoing” and slow starts to his WHL and AHL seasons – it took him a while in each case to gain traction.I also think they gave the fanbase unreasonable expectations on the time line for his development and “arrival”. Yamamoto is a 22nd overall pick, not a top 5 or even top 10 pick.The reasonable expectation should be a full AHL season in his rookie pro year (last year) and likely AHL time in his second pro year (this year).

    And I think it also can give the player unrealistic expectations. They think they are closer to the NHL than they really are and may subconsciously affect how hard they have to work. I think this has happened with Pulu certainly.

    A good healthy year for Yamo and he’s back on track.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Haven’t had a chance to read LT’s Athletic article on Maksimov but I look forward to it.

    Again, I will temper expectations because this player is just turning pro but he’s got a range of skills that lead to that elite level shot/release.

    His shot is the best of an Oiler forward since Jason Arnott (OK, maybe Jarett Stoll). If he does develop and “make it” to the NHL, he may very well score ALOT of goals along side one of the skilled centers.

    Its important to note that, while skating needs some work, Krill is not just an “offence only” shooter – he’s a responsible defensive player that was a plus PK guy this past year. He has a temper/mean streak which can lead to some “suspension type plays”.

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: I reached out and believe it is 200 games. When I get confirmation, will pass along.

    Ta very much, La! *Scouse accent. Ringo Starr, not John Lennon*

  9. bwar says:

    I’m looking at that WAR vs probability of making it chart and then trying to wrap my head around the fact that Keegan Lowe has played games for the Oilers.

  10. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – The Sunil bit is interesting. What is lacking in the analysis, is what Sean does, trying to incorporate probabilities. Betting the SH% returns, and possession doesn’t erode more

    – That’s what matters: what is the probability that he scores 20 goals + on a skill line, based on all available data/ historical/ aging curve/ circumstance/usage/ scouting, etc

    – Because we know for certain that Lucic > Neal on a hard working possession line, where scoring is secondary. This is a fairly confident prediction

    – So Lucic has say a 80% chance of being a 3rth or 4rth line grinder, Neal has a 5% chance of being effective if he is on that kind of line (and brutal possession)

    – So I wonder what the odds are they get some semblance of historical Neal, and for how long?

    – Although I’m quite certain the Oil has no one doing this kind of analysis, and the “flexibility” of the contract was the win, that’s fine.

    – But a cool analytics department would have augmented this transaction. Even if there is say a 15% chance of Neal scoring 20, and a 75% chance that Lucic remains effective from a possession perspective, and you do a DCF on the respective salaries and buy-outs and other outs over time

    – I guess that’s my background kicking in: where you have a lot of data before making a decision on selling one equity and buying another, or rebalancing, etc: your still “guessing” to some extent, but you understand the risks and ramifications of a move.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    LT, what is the line of “Making the NHL”?

    I take it it means some level of sustained presence, because a few of these guys have already played in the bigs……so they made it…….for a given value of made it.

    Sean got back to me, it’s actually 41 games. So a low bar. Half a season.

  12. Reja says:

    I’m probably in the lower percentile in being extremely Bullish on Lagesson and Benson. I see both covering their bet for many years to come in a Oiler jersey.

  13. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    40% more top GA teams make final 8 compared to GF
    7 of 8 final 4 teams are top GA teams.

    WAR is an offensive centric measure.

    Current GM’s are putting more emphasis on off ability of dmen.

    But top GA teams are dependent on
    1. the Dpairs Open HD sh density reduction per corsi faced.
    Were they establish top open HD sace% baselines for goalies to perform around.
    2. The goaltenders +ve Open HD save% performance relative to open HD shot density faced ( save% baseline)

    Top GA teams are dependent on high % of 2D -1G structure.

    The chart will identify forwards/Dmen the highest % of GM’s will want.
    It shows Dmen who are the worst at guaranteeing top GA as the best choice.

    Thanks for the chart.

    Bright minds with an incorrect chart.
    I pondered and found it to be lacking relative to 25 years of championship rosters.

    Jordon Peterson found that people who have held on to a belief for 25-40 years do not like to be told they are wrong.

    Has been a big push for more rover play over last three years.

  14. Andy Dufresne says:

    Anyone proposing a trade that includes a prospect should reference these WAR vs Probability of making the NHL charts.

    NHL GMs would have these in their decision making arsenal along with a dozen other tools.

    Probabilty Baby ! Its a thing.

  15. Andy Dufresne says:

    rickithebear: Jordon Peterson found that people like Ricki the Bear, who have held on to a belief for 25-40 years do not like to be told they are wrong.

    Just messin with ya Ricki. 🙂 haha

    Stay Strong Buddy!

  16. rickithebear says:

    LT:

    Last 3 years theirvhas been a push to higherv% of rover play.
    In the 80s then poorer goalie save % created a lower (homeplate) HDSH:LDSH ( perimeter) ratio.
    83-84 the median save% was .875 and top 5 goalies .890 to .902

    15-16 the median save% was .918 and top 5 goalies .924 to .930

    We have seen a bigger push to more rovers 3-1-1-1 structure.
    18-19 median save% .912 and top 5 goalies .927 to .934

    Higher open HD sh rates has created a dramatic change in median save%.

    Theirvare a lot of great concepts coming from guys like Perry.
    His methodology is incorrect.

    “3-2-1 is winning fun”

  17. Psyche says:

    rickithebear,

    Thank you Ricki! Terrific observation. I appreciate the insight.

  18. Jaxon says:

    Maksimov’s goal-scoring skills are impressive as is his consistency. He kept up a 40 goal pace for his last 158 games in the OHL. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does in training camp and pre-season. So many interesting prospects and veterans to follow this fall. Can’t wait for it to start.

  19. Primetime says:

    The Ottawa Senators giving a division rival a $6 million dollar cap hit pass for virtually NO cost to save the owner actual cash is unbelievable They should have been able to get at least a second round draft pick out of Tampa for the huge break they are getting (can sign Pointe now).

    The NHL needs to be like the NBA where the commissioner comes in a squashes a trade if it is not deemed fair.

    If we need a 3rd line centre for $1-2 million, Holland needs to call Dorian and offer Gagner with money retained for Pageau. Same cap hit but keeping a million would be like signing another centre. Ottawa could save even more real dollars then.

  20. rickithebear says:

    Posted this late in AM yrasterday:

    Holland and young players:

    Holland has not had the Forward depth he would like the last few years.
    We here he lets players cook in the minors.

    Question is how old does he prefer his players before they get 32+ gm NHL debut season.

    Is he like LT draft +5 (23)
    Does he give them a chance after age is no longer a translation issue. (22)
    Or is it sooner than that.

    Holland publicly stated that players have asked for trades and he has convinced some to stay and some wanted to go. He only made a trade when the trade was in the teams interest.
    Puljujarvi played in NHL @ 18, 19, 20.
    His desired debut season may have some affect on JP situation.

    Young forwards under Holland with 32+ debut seasons.
    22yr is draft +4 when age adjustment is gone.
    18-19 Rasmussen (19) 4 evg 10 PPA, Larkin (22)
    17-18 Larkin (21), Mantha (22), bertuzzi (22)
    16-17 Larkin (20), Mantha (21)
    15-16 Larkin (19), Athanasiou (21), Jurco (22)
    ——————————————————- Blashill becomes coach
    14-15 Jurco (21), Sheahan (22),
    13-14 Jurco (20), Sheahan (21)
    12-13 None
    11-12 None
    10-11 None
    9-10 Helm (22), Abdelkader (22)
    8-9 None
    7-8 None
    6-7 Hudler (22), Filpulla (22)
    5-6 None
    ——————————————- Babcock becomes coach
    3-4 Zetterberg (22)
    2-3 Zetterberg (21), Avery (22)
    ——————————————- Lewis becomes coach
    1-2 Avery (21)
    0-1 Devereaux (22)
    99-00 butsayev (20)
    98-99 Dandenault (22)
    97-98 Dandenault (21)
    ————————————————- Holland made GM July 1997
    96-97 Dandenault (20), Lapointe (22)
    95-96 Dandenault (19), Lapointe (21)
    94-95 Lapointe (20), Primeau (22), Kozlov (22), MaCarty (22)
    93-94 Lapointe (19), Primeau (21), Kozlov (21), McCarty (21), Sillinger (22), Draper (22), Johnson (22)
    ——————————————- Scotty B. Becomes coach

    97-98 to 12-13 seems to be (22 yr) draft +4.
    When age translation is no longer an issue.
    Core development should be closer to complete

    4 – 20yr and under debut seasons in 21 years
    Rasmussen (19) 18-18
    Larkin (19) 15-16
    Jurco (20) 13-14
    Butsayev (20) 99-00

    5 – 21yr debuts
    Mantha 16-17
    Athanasiou 15-16
    Sheahan 13-14
    Zetterberg 02-03
    Avery 01-02

    6 – 22yr debuts
    Bertuzzi 17-18
    Helm, Abdelkader 09-10
    Hudler, Fillpulla 06-07
    deveraux 00-01

    7 of 15 are 13-14 to 18-19 last 6 years
    8 of 15 are 97-98 to 12-13
    6 of 21 years are none

    22 yr or none (23+) seems to be his chioice.

    Holland must still think their is something their in Jurco.
    I would expect a chance for the guy who has shown top 6 fwd even production pace thru his limited career.

    LT: your draft +5 education early on in this blog.
    Is a mantra any fan should hold.

  21. Munny says:

    Jaxon,

    His shot is NHL quality. If he can do the things all players need to be able to do, he will make the Bigs.

  22. rickithebear says:

    Andy Dufresne: Just messin with ya Ricki. haha

    Stay Strong Buddy!

    Oh I New it could be taken both ways!

    Which is fair.

  23. Munny says:

    I know you’ve been pretty draft focused this past bit, LT, but I would love to see a deep look at Cooper Marody some time this month, if you can.

  24. rickithebear says:

    also real early this morning in other post.

    The night mare that is oilers 22 & younger players from 05-06

    Oilers u23 players with 32+ game seasons

    Looking at forwards/Dmen under 23
    ——————————— Lowe GM; MacT Coach
    05-06 (1) hemsky (22) playoffs
    O6-07 (5) Smid (20) MAP (21), JFJ (21), Lupul (22), Thoersen (22)
    07-08 (7) Gagner (18), Cogliano (20), Smid (21), Storitini (21), Nilsson (22), MAP (22), JFJ (22)
    ———————————- Katz new owner Tambellini GM
    08-09 (5) Gagner (19), Cogs (21), Smid (22), Reddox (22), Storitini (22)
    ———————————- Quinn New Coach
    09-10 (4) Gagner (20), Cogs (22), Brule (22), Chorney (22)
    ———————————- Renney New Coach
    10-11 (6) Hall (18), Pujarvi (19), Eberle (20), Gagner (21), Peckham (22), Petry (22)
    11-12 (6) RNH (18), Hall (19), Pujarvi (20), Lander (20), Eberle (21), Gagner (22)
    ———————————— Kruger Coach
    12-13 (7) Yakupov (18), RNH (19), Hall (20), Pujarvi (21), Lander (21), Eberle (22), Schultz (23)
    ———————————— MacT GM, Eakins Coach
    13-14 (4) Yakupov (19), RNH (20), Hall (21), Marincin (21)
    14-15 (6) Draisaitl (18), Yakupov (20), RNH (21), Klefbom (21), Hall (22), Marincin (22)
    ————————————- Chiarelli GM, Mclelland Coach
    15-16 (6) Mcdavid (18), Draisaitl (19), Nurse (20), Yak (21), RNH (22), Klef (22)
    16-17 (7) JP (18), Mcdavid (19), Drai (20), Nurse (21), Caggulia (22), Benning (22), Slep (22)
    17-18 (4) JP (19), Mcdavid (20), Drai (21), Nurse (22)
    18-19 (3) JP (20) Mcdavid (21), Drai (22)
    ——————————Holland GM, Tippett Coach

    Nicely set up not to bring on any 22yr olds other than Mcdavid.
    Which Holland has done often in the past.

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Sean got back to me, it’s actually 41 games. So a low bar. Half a season.

    See, that bothers me. Bear and Jones have already played 18 and 17 games respectively. So it drastically alters their probability of making it. I wonder if games already played are factored in.

  26. Primetime says:

    Fenton out after one terrible year as GM of the Wild.

    Wish we had the same foresight after one year of Chia…would have stopped a lot of heartbreak….

  27. rickithebear says:

    Also from this morning other blog:

    Holland wants prospects to prove it.

    Current signed depth.
    Mcdavid C (22)
    Draisaitl LW, C, RW(23)
    Khaira LW, C (24)
    Cave C (24)
    RNH C (26)
    Granlund LW, RW (26)
    Archibald RW (26)
    Nygard LW (26) – NHLE 23G 38P
    Jurco LW,RW (26)
    Haas C (27) – NHLE 12G 33P
    Chaisson LW,RW (28)
    Kassian RW (28)
    Gagner RW (29)
    Neal LW (31)
    Brodziak C (35)
    15 FWDS 7 who can play center
    8 with top 6 forward history.

    Chaisson – Mcdavid – Draisaitl
    Neal – RNH – Kassian
    Granlund – xxx – Archibald

    Jurco – haas – Nygard
    Khaira – Brodziak – Gagner
    xxx – cave – xxx

    Nurse LD (24)
    Benning RD (25)
    Persson RD (25)
    Larsson RD (26)
    Klefbom LD (26)
    Manning LD (29)
    Russell LD,RD (32)
    3 LD, 3 RD, 1 both

    Koskinen G (31)
    Smith G (37)

    Prospects by age:
    Day D (26)
    Gambardella LW (26) in dec – NHLE 22G 36P
    Lagesson LD (23)
    Maroody C,RW (23) in Dec. – NHLE 12G 40P
    —————————————— All below cooking for 1-2 more years in AHL would be Holland’s way.
    Hebig RW,C (22)
    Jones LD (22)
    Bear RD (22)
    Benson LW (21) – age NHLE 13G 42P
    Yamamotto RW,C (21) in sept
    Maximov RW (20)
    Samaroukov LD (20)
    Mcleod C (20) in sept.

    Holland has veterans requiring prospects to force their way on the team.

    “ Decisions now for the future”

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I imagine KR4’s number fall off a cliff this season & Bouchard plays 55+ games

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear,

    – The Jurco, Aricbald, Nygards, etc: they are totally there to “block” Just hope they do a better job of blocking than some of the previous regimes “blocks”: (hi Reider, Rattie, Hendo, Jusi, Letetsu, etc)

    – What do you think of Pool: given his age, would you play him. I know in the past you’ve liked him

  30. Reja says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I imagine KR4’s number fall off a cliff this season & Bouchard plays 55+ games

    Ding! Ding! Ding! Bouchard will make our top 10 PP a top 5 force sooner than folks think. Fix the PK and Bob’s your uncle watching playoff games. I have no idea when a Top 3-5 rated PP team did not qualify for the playoffs. I would have to say not often.

  31. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    It appears that Minnesota has seen the error in their ways sooner than we hoped…
    They already fired Fenton…

  32. Gerta Rauss says:

    Primetime: The Ottawa Senators giving a division rival a $6 million dollar cap hit pass for virtually NO cost

    I was thinking the same thing

    That’s a whole lot of effort to upgrade a 6th round pick to a 5th round pick

  33. defmn says:

    Gerta Rauss: I was thinking the same thing

    That’s a whole lot of effort to upgrade a 6th round pick to a 5th round pick

    Which might be just one spot from 156 to 155. 😉

  34. Munny says:

    Had no idea that Rutger Hauer has passed through the Tannhauser Gate. Hopefully all your moments won’t be lost in time like tears in the rain. RIP, Roy.

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    defmn,

    Yeah, my cost of doing business would have been significantly higher

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    I’m probably in the lower percentile in being extremely Bullish on Lagesson and Benson. I see both covering their bet for many years to come in a Oiler jersey.

    I have been pumping Lagesson since I saw him at his first Penticton tournament a few years back – he was a MUCH better skater and puck mover than I had anticipated and knowing his plus defensive game, I took an interest.

    I personally put him in the same tier as Jones – different type of player, obviously, but just as NHL ready and as much potential to impact the NHL lineup.

    Jones likely “makes the team” ahead of Lagesson due to his skating/puck moving and previous experience, however, Willie will get the call and, once he does, he may never look back. He still needs to prove it but I believe he is ready for 3LD and also that he will develop in to a 22 minute 2LD.

    He’s a “new age” Jason Smith or Adam Larsson – an aggressive and physical defence first defender who can also skate and move the puck. I think he’s built for the new NHL.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Would like to see Bouchard and Maksimov on that chart – maybe if I clicked it as opposed to looking at the embedded view….

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Maksimov’s goal-scoring skills are impressive as is his consistency. He kept up a 40 goal pace for his last 158 games in the OHL. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does in training camp and pre-season. So many interesting prospects and veterans to follow this fall. Can’t wait for it to start.

    Agreed 100%.

    Even if the season doesn’t go well in the standings, which would be unfortunate and disappointing, of course, there are still countless story-lines that will keep me engaged with both the NHL and AHL team (as well as non-pro prospects).

    Yes, I am here for goals, wins and cups, however, from a micro level, I’m also here to watch, for example, the development of Samorukov on the Condors, where Nurse’s game goes with a non-Russell partner (hopefully), the progression of whichever rookie d-men are playing (Persson, Lagesson, Jones), etc.

    Always reasons to tune in, each and every game night.

  39. Pescador says:

    Jethro Tull: *Scouse accent.

    Everyone hoping on the Liverpool train

  40. Jethro Tull says:

    Pescador: Everyone hoping on the Liverpool train

    The Liverpool train is up on cinder blocks with its wheels stolen. Scallys.

  41. Munny says:

    Pescador: Everyone hoping on the Liverpool train

    The Lancashire Witch?

  42. pts2pndr says:

    McNuge93: And I thinkit also can give the player unrealistic expectations. They think they are closer to the NHL than they really are and may subconsciously affect how hard they have to work. I think this has happened with Pulu certainly.

    A good healthy year for Yamo and he’s back on track.

    The player I want to see get healthy is Safin. LT’s thoughts on him for the draft were valid. He has the complete skill set for a complementary winger and can play in a defensive role as required due his size. Watched him score from the hash marks corner bar and in before the goal tender moved. He needs experience and looked tentative at times at the young stars in Penticton, he needs to use his size more to exert his will.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    Tippet on Stauffer’s show today said he would prefer to see Russell on the left side.

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Tippet onStauffer’s show today said he would prefer to see Russell on the left side for another team.

    FIFY

  45. Pescador says:

    Jethro Tull: The Liverpool train is up on cinder blocks with its wheels stolen.Scallys.

    I think they just take the hub caps,
    Ney need fa messin with the jack & the lugs in th’ car park Tomeh!

  46. Pescador says:

    Primetime:
    The Ottawa Senators giving a division rival a $6 million dollar cap hit pass for virtually NO cost to save the owner actual cash is unbelievableThey should have been able to get at least a second round draft pick out of Tampa for the huge break they are getting (can sign Pointe now).

    The NHL needs to be like the NBA where the commissioner comes in a squashes a trade if it is not deemed fair.

    If we need a 3rd line centre for $1-2 million, Holland needs to call Dorian and offer Gagner with money retained for Pageau.Same cap hit but keeping a million would be like signing another centre.Ottawa could save even more real dollars then.

    This!
    I’ve been droning on about a Pageau for Gagner trade every since Lowetide first suggested it

  47. Side says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Tippet onStauffer’s show today said he would prefer to see Russell on the left side.

    You can’t even ask Russell what side he would prefer playing on because ‘just outside the goalie crease and prone’ isn’t really a position.

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    Primetime:
    The Ottawa Senators giving a division rival a $6 million dollar cap hit pass for virtually NO cost to save the owner actual cash is unbelievableThey should have been able to get at least a second round draft pick out of Tampa for the huge break they are getting (can sign Pointe now).

    The NHL needs to be like the NBA where the commissioner comes in a squashes a trade if it is not deemed fair.

    If we need a 3rd line centre for $1-2 million, Holland needs to call Dorian and offer Gagner with money retained for Pageau.Same cap hit but keeping a million would be like signing another centre.Ottawa could save even more real dollars then.

    Once again, a top team, seemingly in trouble is helped out, out of the blue, by a team with no reason to. As you say, better money saving options were out there, yet inexplicably Dorian decided to do this, which could only have been endorsed by Melnyk.

    A cynical person might say the game is rigged……it definitely not in the spirit of the salary cap.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reading through Nugent-Bowman’s interview with Tippett and a few interesting things to note:

    – he mentioned Connor playing less on the PK and more on the PP – I think there will be times when we him play almost the full two minutes.

    – he mentioned the same with respect to Drai which is a bit more interesting to me as Drai was a much better PK guy than McDavid and used more. He is the team’s best faceoff man (at least was last year) and Tippett also mentioned needing to win more draws on the PK. I think Drai playing less on the PK will depend on if guys like Nygard and Hass are indeed able to help out guys like Granlund and Archibald

    – he did answer a question that led to the potential that there may indeed be options other than Klef/Larsson – lots of proposed pairing on this forum have indeed not had those two together. He wants Russell on the left side, ideally.

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    Primetime:
    Fenton out after one terrible year as GM of the Wild.

    Wish we had the same foresight after one year of Chia…would have stopped a lot of heartbreak….

    Does that mean we’ll have to pay FMV for Zucker now? Shoulda struck while the iron was hot…

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    FYI, I’ve had to log into the site 4 times today on the same computer. On the same article.

  52. Side says:

    Primetime:
    The Ottawa Senators giving a division rival a $6 million dollar cap hit pass for virtually NO cost to save the owner actual cash is unbelievableThey should have been able to get at least a second round draft pick out of Tampa for the huge break they are getting (can sign Pointe now).

    The NHL needs to be like the NBA where the commissioner comes in a squashes a trade if it is not deemed fair.

    If we need a 3rd line centre for $1-2 million, Holland needs to call Dorian and offer Gagner with money retained for Pageau.Same cap hit but keeping a million would be like signing another centre.Ottawa could save even more real dollars then.

    You would give Bettman this power? Damnn.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Jaxon,

    His shot is NHL quality. If he can do the things all players need to be able to do, he will make the Bigs.

    Its not just NHL quality, its essentially elite NHL quality (including the release).

    He’s got other attributes as well – good two way play, aggressive, PK.

    The deficiencies are skating (hopefully that improves) and decision-making (generally in the offensive zone).

    He’ll need some time on the deficiencies and adjusting to the pro game but the range of skills is encouraging.

    We sure could use a “one-shot scorer” on this team – Lavoie could be as well in time.

  54. Reja says:

    Munny:
    Had no idea that Rutger Hauer has passed through the Tannhauser Gate.Hopefully all your moments won’t be lost in time like tears in the rain. RIP, Roy.

    After he passed I watched Hobo with a shotgun.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    I know you’ve been pretty draft focused this past bit, LT, but I would love to see a deep look at Cooper Marody some time this month, if you can.

    I’m warming to the potential of Cooper as a wildcard for the 3C.

    I watched ALOT of Condors last year and we was indeed the primary line driver on the line and on the team.

    At the same time, I became disheartened with his work in the NHL as his skating really did seem to inhibit him – he was always a step behind the play and never really contributed. With that said, I’ve come to realize that what type of “offence” can a skilled prospect produce playing 6:50/game with Brodziak and P. Russell?

    Presumably he’s noted his skating deficiency and hopefuly that can be improved a bit.

    At the end of the day, he is a “skill guy” who is responsible – sounds like a 3C type of skillset.

  56. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have been pumping Lagesson since I saw him at his first Penticton tournament a few years back – he was a MUCH better skater and puck mover than I had anticipated and knowing his plus defensive game, I took an interest.

    I personally put him in the same tier as Jones – different type of player, obviously, but just as NHL ready and as much potential to impact the NHL lineup.

    Jones likely “makes the team” ahead of Lagesson due to his skating/puck moving and previous experience, however, Willie will get the call and, once he does, he may never look back. He still needs to prove it but I believe he is ready for 3LD and also that he will develop in to a 22 minute 2LD.

    He’s a “new age” Jason Smith or Adam Larsson – an aggressive and physical defence first defender who can also skate and move the puck.I think he’s built for the new NHL.

    We’ve needed a steady eddy on D that’s affordable and isn’t made of glass since forever.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Ding! Ding! Ding! Bouchard will make our top 10 PP a top 5 force sooner than folks think. Fix thePK and Bob’s your uncle watching playoff games. I have no idea when a Top 3-5 rated PP team did not qualify for the playoffs. I would have to say not often.

    I have little doubt that Bouchard will be a staple on PP1 on the Oilers over the next decade – the question to me is when does that start?

    The incumbent PP d-men are not great. Nurse produced OK vis-a-vis P/60 this past year but is not ideal either from a puck distribution or “bomb” standpoint. Klefbom has really never been a great PP guy apart for the PP heater in 2016. Benning always had a nice P/60 but his sample is always too small.

    Point being, there are jobs available but there are guys like Joel Persson and Ethan Bear who have had PP success at the pro level. I don’t think Bear is currently NHL ready (and may never be), however, if Persson can prove to be ready for a 3rd pairing NHL spot, I think his PP skills will be welcomed. I’m more confident in his PP skills translating than his 5 on 5 play.

    Jones isn’t a great PP guy in my mind and Day is unlikely to be able to play in the NHL at 5 on 5 (in my opinion).

    Taking away the option of his contract sliding as a factor, I think we will see Bouchard in the NHL this year, just hopefully not until he’s played significant non-sheltered top 4 minutes in the AHL with great success – I see some PP2 time for him this year and I’d be surprised if he isn’t the PP1 guy buy December 2020 (potentially sooner).

  58. godot10 says:

    Primetime:
    The Ottawa Senators giving a division rival a $6 million dollar cap hit pass for virtually NO cost to save the owner actual cash is unbelievableThey should have been able to get at least a second round draft pick out of Tampa for the huge break they are getting (can sign Pointe now).

    The NHL needs to be like the NBA where the commissioner comes in a squashes a trade if it is not deemed fair.

    If we need a 3rd line centre for $1-2 million, Holland needs to call Dorian and offer Gagner with money retained for Pageau.Same cap hit but keeping a million would be like signing another centre.Ottawa could save even more real dollars then.

    Ottawa is a cash poor team. The deal save them $3 million actual dollars. Tampa effectively paid $3 million real dollars for $6 million dollars in cap space. Ottawa wasn’t using that cap space, so they received $3 million dollars for “nothing”.

  59. godot10 says:

    Pescador: This!
    I’ve been droning on about a Pageau for Gagner trade every since Lowetide first suggested it

    Gagner gets paid real money. Ottawa isn’t interested in taking on cap with actual dollars attached. There are no dollars attached to Callahan, and they get to dump a $3 million dollar salary in Condon.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Mike Parkatti live in studio on Gregor’s show at 4pm

  61. John Chambers says:

    godot10,

    The same logic can be applied from the Flames’ viewpoint regarding the Neal – Lucic swap.

    With the $750k retained salary, Calgary will owe Lucic just $13M for the remaining 4 years of his contract. Meanwhile they ridded themselves of the obligation to pay James Neal $23M.

    From Calgary’s perspective they save $500k annually in cap hit and $10M in actual money.

  62. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Giving Marody a few games in the NHL last year was probably very instructive to the player in demonstrating the weaknesses in his game that he’s had ~9 months to acknowledge and address.

    I imagine we’ll see a faster Cooper Marody, one who is competing directly with Gaetan Haas for a job as an NHL Centre.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mike Parkatti live in studio on Gregor’s show at 4pm

    Woot! I’ll have a pen and foolscap at the ready!

  64. Reja says:

    Jethro Tull: Once again, a top team, seemingly in trouble is helped out, out of the blue, by a team with no reason to.As you say, better money saving options were out there, yet inexplicably Dorian decided to do this, which could only have been endorsed by Melnyk.

    A cynical person might say the game is rigged……it definitely not in the spirit of the salary cap.

    What amazes me is people around these parts cheer for these ham and eggers.
    Fuk the Bolts except for my man Khabibulin.

  65. Darth Tu says:

    godot10: Gagner gets paid real money.Ottawa isn’t interested in taking on cap with actual dollars attached.There are no dollars attached to Callahan, and they get to dump a $3 million dollar salary in Condon.

    What the fork are Tampa going to do with the 5 gajillion goalies they now have under their control? Are they terrified a “Vegas” situation is about to occur?

  66. defmn says:

    John Chambers:
    godot10,

    The same logic can be applied from the Flames’ viewpoint regarding the Neal – Lucic swap.

    With the $750k retained salary, Calgary will owe Lucic just $13M for the remaining 4 years of his contract. Meanwhile they ridded themselves of the obligation to pay James Neal $23M.

    From Calgary’s perspective they save $500k annually in cap hit and $10M in actual money.

    More than a few reminders this summer that teams trade contracts – not players.

  67. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    CHIARELLI AS GM OF THE WILD.

    If I think about it hard enough it might come true.

  68. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    Essentially true, but not quite nothing.

    Source:
    https://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/senators-clear-crease-clutter-deal-condon-to-tampa-bay

    “The low-budget Senators saved themselves $2.06 million by picking up what remained on the contract of the 34-year-old Callahan.” Furthermore, “with insurance covering 80 per cent of that total, the Senators will pay only $940,000.”

  69. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I trust we’ll all do our parts, and light a prayer candle. Or five.

  70. Reja says:

    John Chambers:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Giving Marody a few games in the NHL last year was probably very instructive to the player in demonstrating the weaknesses in his game that he’s had ~9 months to acknowledge and address.

    I imagine we’ll see a faster Cooper Marody, one who is competing directly with Gaetan Haas for a job as an NHL Centre.

    I never noticed Cooper good bad or slow they never gave him enough minutes.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    JohnChambers: Marody

    Very likely the case with respect to knowledge of deficient skills, however, at the same time, did Cooper not know that skating was the main thing that could crater an NHL career? Presumably he’s been working on his skating year after year. I’m not sure how much “better” he’s going to get.

    With respect to Marody vs. Hass, I’m quite confdient that Marody has NHL level skill but not necessarily boots. On the other hand, from all accounts Hass’ skating is NHL level but I’m not sure about the rest of his game.

    Will be fun to see these battles.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Reja: I never noticed Cooper good bad or slow they never gave him enough minutes.

    He was up around the time of the coaching change iirc that’s a bad time to be a young player.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: What the fork are Tampa going to do with the 5 gajillion goalies they now have under their control? Are they terrified a “Vegas” situation is about to occur?

    I’d like to POINT out that I’m confident the deal has little to do with Condon and all to do with acquiring cap space.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    godot10,

    The same logic can be applied from the Flames’ viewpoint regarding the Neal – Lucic swap.

    With the $750k retained salary, Calgary will owe Lucic just $13M for the remaining 4 years of his contract. Meanwhile they ridded themselves of the obligation to pay James Neal $23M.

    From Calgary’s perspective they save $500k annually in cap hit and $10M in actual money.

    A reminder of the benefits of the Oilers’ owner.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: More than a few reminders this summer that teams trade contracts – not players.

    I wonder if this become a point in the CBA negotiations?

    With that said, is there a negative for either side?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    CHIARELLI AS GM OF THE WILD.

    If I think about it hard enough it might come true.

    100% plagiarized from a poster on another platform (Roughingafterthewhistle) from a posted named bchippie:

    He named his son, PJ Fenton, as the head of the scouting department. PJ had only 3 years of scouting experience. Coincidentally, those 3 years were in Edmonton under Peter Chiarelli and Fenton just recently hired Chiarelli’s brother and nephew to play a role in the Wild’s scouting department. As far as the blunders that he did during his one year in Minny?, there are lots.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Parkatti was excellent, just so well informed and offering ideas. Very much worth listening to if you missed it.

  78. Reja says:

    Lowetide: He was up around the time of the coaching change iirc that’s a bad time to be a young player.

    I agree. I could be wrong for me he was just thrown in the line-up with no plan for him.
    When he does get another shot I think Tippett will handle him differently.

  79. Lowetide says:

    Reja: I agree. I could be wrong for me he was just thrown in the line-up with no plan for him.
    When he does get anothershot Ithink Tippett will handle him differently.

    Yeah, I think we throw around lack of speed as a limiter but Marody dominated the AHL and played 41 NHL minutes (and had five takeaways), plus a possession number of 51 percent. All agree it’s too small a sample size but he did enough for us to want to see him again imo.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I agree. I could be wrong for me he was just thrown in the line-up with no plan for him.
    When he does get anothershot Ithink Tippett will handle him differently.

    Tippett was clear that one of his main attributes is “putting players in a position to succeed” and, to me, that means not playing means generally consistent linemates (although that’s for all players) but, for a guy like Marody, playing him with some skill and not fourth line with Brodziak and Hass. Whether that means Nuge as his 3C or him as a 3C with the likes of Gagner, etc. I don’t know.

    A guy like Joe G. can be played on the 4th line as, although he scored alot of goals this past year in the AHL, he’s a much older prospect and i see his potential as a bottom 6 “energy guy” and not on a skill line.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I think we throw around lack of speed as a limiter but Marody dominated the AHL and played 41 NHL minutes (and had five takeaways), plus a possession number of 51 percent. All agree it’s too small a sample size but he did enough for us to want to see him again imo.

    I talk about “slow boots” probably as little as anyone in this community but, to me, it was very apparent as a limiting factor during his short stint. Again, 6:50/game with 4th line and tweeners likely added to the visual.

    I agree, he was some dominant at the AHL level, both driving offence and generally in the possession game, that more looks are 100% warranted.

    I didn’t watch 5 U of M games post trade and talk about his surprising skill for months to give up on the guy after less than 40 minutes of ice in his rookie pro year.

  82. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: I talk about “slow boots” probably as little as anyone in this community but, to me, it was very apparent as a limiting factor during his short stint.

    A good exercise might be to go through the games he played and see gaps between shifts. Here’s a random game, Washington-Edmonton October 25.

    First period: Shifts at 2:21 (five seconds); 2:29 (43 seconds); 5:38 (31 seconds); 8:47 (1:04); 17:31 (1:29)

    Second period: 2:53 (26 seconds); 5:33 (1:06); 14:06 (53 seconds); 16:54 (38 seconds)

    Third period: 9:16 (49 seconds).

    I mention “slow boots” as much as anyone, but even I would admit Marody was out of the rotation by the 12 minute mark of the first period.

    We men tend to take comments that disagree with our stated opinion as challenges. I know I do. In this case, my comments aren’t targeted at any specific person, but rather the group as a whole. Marody isn’t a burner, but his AHL rookie season was so good it’s reasonable to assume he’s going to get at least 20 games some season soon.

    http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20182019/TH020142.HTM

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have been pumping Lagesson since I saw him at his first Penticton tournament a few years back – he was a MUCH better skater and puck mover than I had anticipated and knowing his plus defensive game, I took an interest.

    I personally put him in the same tier as Jones – different type of player, obviously, but just as NHL ready and as much potential to impact the NHL lineup.

    Jones likely “makes the team” ahead of Lagesson due to his skating/puck moving and previous experience, however, Willie will get the call and, once he does, he may never look back. He still needs to prove it but I believe he is ready for 3LD and also that he will develop in to a 22 minute 2LD.

    He’s a “new age” Jason Smith or Adam Larsson – an aggressive and physical defence first defender who can also skate and move the puck.I think he’s built for the new NHL.

    I believe these types of D are what win championships. It’s nice to have a real offensive firecracker, but those that dominate both ends of the ice are hen’s teeth.

    Give me two guys that can move the puck on PP and a stable of quality defensive D that can move and make a good pass and Cup!

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Woot! I’ll have a pen and foolscap at the ready!

    I broke my pencil.

  85. northerndancer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I believe these types of D are what win championships. It’s nice to have a real offensive firecracker, but those that dominate both ends of the ice are hen’s teeth.

    Give me two guys that can move the puck on PP and a stable of quality defensive D that can move and make a good pass and Cup!

    and maybe a sheet of plywood.

  86. northerndancer says:

    northerndancer: and maybe a sheet of plywood.

    nods to woodguy to check his maths on that one

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Gerta Rauss: I was thinking the same thing

    That’s a whole lot of effort to upgrade a 6th round pick to a 5th round pick

    The Sens save the cash on the Condon contract and the Lightning gain cap. Callaghan I imagine will be paid by the insurance company. Makes sense to me. Holland could do something like that as mentioned with Pageau, but Sammy is a right shot that can play centre and take RS faceoffs.

    Brodziak is the only other right shot C (Gagner plays wing now but he has years under his belt at C). Teach Jesse faceoffs and shelter him at C , use Granlund or Cave as the D zone C. I’m convinced it’ll work.

    When looking at line combos it seems few teams run 4 lines at least reg season. 2 scoring lines (your top 6, and if you’re lucky and have O Reilly you also have a scoring shut down line), a defensive shut down line that coaches want for critical D zone work they trust, and the last 3 that may be Palookas or youth depending on the cycle of the team and the team philosophy.

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    northerndancer: and maybe a sheet of plywood.

    Maybe they should ice 2 forwards and play both goalies and time. Out of the box so to speak

  89. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I broke my pencil.

    He made me laugh.

  90. rickithebear says:

    northerndancer: nods to woodguy to check his maths on that one

    He does not understand the full def game.

    Their are 2 forms of def measure.
    1. 2 shot density areas.
    I first identified late 60’s early 70’s as a young child. 45-50 yr ago.
    Low danger ( perimeter) and High danger. Math was 05-06, same time as “2006 shot quality.”
    HD area matched.
    They failed to understand HD area.

    2. 2 shot qualities,
    I identified 45 yr ago watching 7 yr old Ronnie Gunvilles table hockey goalie movement.
    Closed shot (0% chance of goal),
    Open shot (> 0% chance of a goal)

    0% corsi would be plywood.
    More specifically K. Russell is the best Dman plywood in the game.

    Fuck that is the perfect description.
    Who does not think putting plywood in front of net is not a good way to reduce GA.

    If you are seeking the plywood in front of net affect.
    Russell #1
    De Haas #2
    For 17-18
    I do not have 18-19 numbers.
    Cancer taking up my time.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Scully JP at C is something I posted as recently as 2 weeks ago on here.
    His low shooting %
    But penetration speed and passing skills scream C.

    Half way thru 1 st season we saw a Def responsible 2 way player showing up.
    It screamed C.
    His 19 yr old season evg production being superior to M. Tkachuks had me thinking about what he could be as a winger.
    We still have 1-2 years before Holland wants to know what he really is.

  92. rickithebear says:

    “Kris Russell is the best Plywood in front of the net in the game.”

    Ndancer, thanks for the plywood joke.

    Perfect description of what Russell does.

    Elite 0% Corsi Dmen: the perfect Plywood!

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy: T

    Teach Jesse faceoffs and shelter him at C , use Granlund or Cave as the D zone C. I’m convinced it’ll work.

    I’m not convinced that trying to learn a new position, that is known to be “harder” and comes with more responsibility, is the right course for a struggling player looking to establish himself as an NHL player

  94. Bling says:

    I didn’t notice Marody being a bad skater in his short stint here, and I was impressed by his puck sense. He has vision and can take and make a pass.

  95. Bling says:

    I’m willing to write off JP’s last season as injury related.

    His other two seasons were pretty good. If he is healthy and playing with decent players, I expect a modest break-out, 15G and 20A, something like that.

  96. northerndancer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Maybe they should ice 2 forwards and play both goalies and time. Out of the box so to speak

    There were times over the past few years where I thought “why don’t we just stack all 6 guys in the goal, maybe McDavid on the edge. Puck hits the “goalie” and out bursts mdD, down the ice and on his way. It would have been more entertaining and perhaps even more effective.

  97. northerndancer says:

    I share the enthusiasm for this year’s camp. Some real talent in the works. It must be damn hard to project the best out of the pack when the regulars, the established players, are living and dying in 3/4 time.

  98. northerndancer says:

    rickithebear:
    Scully JP at C is something I posted as recently as 2 weeks ago on here.
    His low shooting %
    But penetration speed and passing skills scream C.

    Half way thru 1 st season we saw a Def responsible 2 way player showing up.
    It screamed C.
    His 19 yr old season evg production being superior to M. Tkachuks had me thinking about what he could be as a winger.
    We still have 1-2 years before Holland wants to know what he really is.

    Thanks Ricki…. I agree about JP. He is a driver and there were bursts of that over the last 2 seasons. i can’t remember who said that he needed to be a driver, a puck carrier, but I saw them correctly. His confidence seemed to grow when he was playing with lesser carriers like Strome but when he was paired with good carriers he seemed to get in the way, go offside, etc.

  99. Gerta Rauss says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The Sens save the cash on the Condon contract and the Lightning gain cap. Callaghan I imagine will be paid by the insurance company. Makes sense to me

    I understand the economics of the transaction, my point was that cap space is trading at a premium this summer and the relative price paid by Tampa seems below market value

  100. New Improved Darkness says:

    Slightly OT, but a friend with shiny new Blu-rays of same gave me both halves of Bill’s Rotting Corpse (on DVD) so we took another spin, even though I had mixed feelings the first time around.

    Once again, it didn’t inspire me to any great thoughts. During the Michael Madsen sequence, it really drove home Donald’s best ever decision: staying dry. Don can’t ever have been more than a 1000 gloriously antiseptic bottles away from becoming a bouncer in a down-and-out titty bar, living out his lonely existence in some desiccated backwater of New Mexico, with his priceless Hattori Hanzo—which he often denies still owning—stuffed into his golf bag. Strangely enough, with that extra “club” in his bag, he’s never carded worse than a 68, no matter who he plays with (69 is a dirty number, and as for the 70s, let’s not even go there).

    ———

    Madsen sure nails the cagey quarter-coot on the back ninety-proof.

    Budd: That woman, deserves her revenge and … we deserve to die. But then again, so does she. So, I guess we’ll just see. Won’t we?

    That dry, taciturn New Mexico air would turn anyone into a philosopher, given long enough.

    Actual film location is in between Los Angeles and Los Vegas.

    It’s about 50 miles east to find the trailer of Budd (Michael Madsen), parked at at Mule Canyon in the Calico Hills, north from the I-15, about 20 miles east of Barstow.

    New Mexico is way on the other side of Petrified Forest National Park, itself situated on the southern edge of Navajo Nation. Historically, from time to time, some Navajos would show up in Petrified Forest and dig an 800°F impromptu tandoori oven in some small glade. But the forest never went up in smoke, because the Navajo have 16 distinct words for fielding hot, dry, iridescent embers; they really know their blazing bushmanship.

    Always a good idea to lick your fingertips before you Bobby Orr a diving snag to Navajo low glove.

    Petrified Forest is not amused.

    ———

    Japanese codebreaker: I could just swear they’re discussing the second-stage sear indicators of pheasant tikka masala.

    Japanese officer: Hai, they probably are. Now try again.

  101. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Actually, it is a curious trade.

    The Sens are on the hook for $940k of Callahan’s actual salary.

    So the Sens paid almost a million dollars to upgrade a sixth round pick to a fifth and dump $2.5 m in actual money owed to Condon.

    So they save a little over a million and a half, but don’t actually have a hockey player in the deal.

    It does look like they let the Bolts off pretty easy.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Actually, it is a curious trade.

    The Sens are on the hook for $940k of Callahan’s actual salary.

    So the Sens paid almost a million dollars to upgrade a sixth round pick to a fifth and dump $2.5 m in actual money owed to Condon.

    So they save a little over a million and a half, but don’t actually have a hockey player in the deal.

    It does look like they let the Bolts off pretty easy.

    You’ve never been broke it seems, billionaire wise 😀

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Gerta Rauss: I understand the economics of the transaction, my point was that cap space is trading at a premium this summer and the relative price paid by Tampa seems below market value

    Perhaps showing how desperate Melnyk is to shed cash salary .

    Or Dorion has Chiarelli instincts

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    northerndancer: There were times over the past few years where I thought “why don’t we just stack all 6 guys in the goal, maybe McDavid on the edge. Puck hits the “goalie” and out bursts mdD, down the ice and on his way.It would have been more entertaining and perhaps even more effective.

    I have a screenshot of a game against the Sharks from some site that had all 6 Oilers russelling in front of a helpless goalie. Funny and not.

    Edit 5 players and the goalie

  105. Gerta Rauss says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Perhaps showing how desperate Melnyk is to shed cash salary

    I think that’s it , yeah, and Brisebois read the market well

  106. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    Lost the post on skating I had done around 5:30.
    Forgot to save what I had typed.
    Page logs out and data is lost otherwise.

    Here we go again.

    LT: speed is critical to today’s game.
    How many fast skating forwards do we need on a line 1,2,3. For strong entry numbers.
    3 is a want.
    Puck tracking data will help us.

    What do we have for skaters on our team.
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    Kassian
    All I can remember is RNH catching players on the back check!

    It is a bad memory day.
    So ref media sources.

    Archibald: per AZcentral, “showed his speed, grit, willingness.” Per C&B “ isn’t big….. good skater”

    Granlund: per D. sedan “PK, PP, up a goal, down a goal….. can play in all situations. HE CAN SKATE, he can shoot, he can pass….. he does it all well.

    Jurco: Detroit news ( per Gerald Gallant) “his skill level is 2nd to none…… using his exceptional skating” well we know why Holland gave him his chance at (20 yr)

    Nygard: per C&B “ ending the intrigue – were SHL speedster Nygard would end up”

    Haas: per elite prospect “ excellent skater……. good top end speed…… can make end to end rushes….. can lead a shut down line.”

    Brodziak: Oiler Release, “ you can see his skating is top notch”

    Khaira: Per Mcurdy Edm Journal: “WOW, he found a whole new gear…… certainly looks fast in this setting……. big man with powerful stride”
    I did not know he had heel & back issues all last season.
    Healthy year hopefully!

    Cave: nada?

    Neal: “ not a traffic cone on skates ,yet”

    Chaisson: “ I am never going to be the greatest skater”

    Gagner: Per Edm sun, “ if he is able to keep up skating wise…….he is going to be”

    Holland added speed.

    Yes LT: clear issues for Maroody & Benson.

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not convinced that trying to learn a new position, that is known to be “harder” and comes with more responsibility, is the right course for a struggling player looking to establish himself as an NHL player

    Agreed, but in his case he does C things when playing as wing, maybe it’s a hack on him learning .

    He chases the puck and likes to carry it exactly as pre draft, after initiating entries moves into a supporting position.

    Unlikely for sure.

  108. rickithebear says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I have a screenshot of a game against the Sharks from some site that had all 6 Oilers russelling in front of a helpless goalie. Funny and not.

    Edit 5 players and the goalie

    You will see a lot of 5 skaters collapsing to HD area from
    CHI in 10, 13, 15 playoffs
    Bos in 11 playoffs
    LAK in 12, 14 playoffs
    Pit in 16,17 playoffs
    WAS, VGK in 18 playoffs
    STL in 19 playoffs

    Does that make it Bad which is what you seem to be suggesting.

    Good plywood wins you cups! (the thing Red says)

  109. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy: You’ve never been broke it seems, billionaire wise

    Haha, every half a million counts, right? I mean it all adds up, lol.

    Seriously though, a buyout for Condon would have cost a million per year for two years. I guess this saves Eugene a million over a buyout. He might be over his injuries too.

    If he’s that hard up for a million bucks, why did he sign Anders Nilsson this summer for $2.8m in real dollars? (2.8 then 2.4).

  110. Jaxon says:

    Jaxon:
    Maksimov’s goal-scoring skills are impressive as is his consistency. He kept up a 40 goal pace for his last 158 games in the OHL. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does in training camp and pre-season. So many interesting prospects and veterans to follow this fall. Can’t wait for it to start.

    Just as a comparison, Lavoie scored at a 42 goal pace this season if you include his playoff run. 20g in 23gp in the playoffs and 32g in 62gp in the regular season for 52g in 85 games. He also scored 30g in 68gp the previous regular season and 3g in 9 playoff games. Total as a 17 and 18-year-old: 85 goals in 162 games for a 36 goal pace over a typical 68 game season sustained over 162 games in his draft-1 and draft seasons.

    I can’t wait to follow his season as well to see how he progresses. It’s rare and highly unlikely, and probably not advisable, but there is an outside chance a late first-round player / early second-round player makes the team ala David Pastrnak (#25 overall), David Perron (QMJHL 51g in 87 GP drafted #26 overall), or Ryan O’Reilly (16G in 73GP, drafted #33 overall). Stranger things…

    A speedy sniper on the wing may be what this team needs most.

  111. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear:
    LT:
    Lost the post on skating I had done around 5:30.
    Forgot to save what I had typed.
    Page logs out and data is lost otherwise.

    Here we go again.

    LT: speed is critical to today’s game.
    How many fast skating forwards do we need on a line 1,2,3. For strong entry numbers.
    3 is a want.
    Puck tracking data will help us.

    What do we have for skaters on our team.
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    Kassian
    All I can remember is RNH catching players on the back check!

    It is a bad memory day.
    So ref media sources.

    Archibald: per AZcentral, “showed his speed, grit, willingness.” Per C&B “ isn’t big….. good skater”

    Granlund: per D. sedan “PK, PP, up a goal, down a goal….. can play in all situations. HE CAN SKATE, he can shoot, he can pass….. he does it all well.

    Jurco: Detroit news ( per Gerald Gallant) “his skill level is 2nd to none…… using his exceptional skating” well we know why Holland gave him his chance at (20 yr)

    Nygard: per C&B “ ending the intrigue – were SHL speedster Nygard would end up”

    Haas: per elite prospect “ excellent skater……. good top end speed…… can make end to end rushes….. can lead a shut down line.”

    Brodziak: Oiler Release, “ you can see his skating is top notch”

    Khaira: Per Mcurdy Edm Journal: “WOW, he found a whole new gear…… certainly looks fast in this setting……. big man with powerful stride”
    I did not know he had heel & back issues all last season.
    Healthy year hopefully!

    Cave: nada?

    Neal: “ not a traffic cone on skates ,yet”

    Chaisson: “ I am never going to be the greatest skater”

    Gagner: Per Edm sun, “ if he is able to keep up skating wise…….he is going to be”

    Holland added speed.

    Yes LT: clear issues for Maroody & Benson.

    Lavoie has good speed as well.
    Kerr at Last Word on Hockey: “Lavoie is a strong skater for his size. He has a good first step and acceleration, as well as the top end speed to pull away from defenders and create breakaways and odd-man rushes. He also has very good agility and edgework, giving him the ability to beat defenders both with and without the puck. Lavoie is tough to knock off the puck, with excellent balance. He has a wide skating stance, giving him a low centre of gravity. His stride is powerful…”

    Steve Kourianous – Draft analyst: “A puck-possessing machine with speed, size and excellent awareness in the offensive zone, … By keeping his feet moving while operating with his head on a swivel, Lavoie keeps opponents guessing and rarely do you see him make a telegraphed play… Lavoie is an excellent skater with above-average straight line speed and enough agility to weave around or fake opponents out of position. He is extremely strong on his skates and can maintain puck possession under physical pressure, using his long reach and wide stance to shield the puck.”

    Hannah Stuart – theScoreMay 1st: “He’s another prospect with NHL size, already standing 6-foot-4, and he’s quite agile and fast considering.”

  112. Reja says:

    Jaxon: Lavoie has good speed as well.
    Kerr at Last Word on Hockey: “Lavoie is a strong skater for his size. He has a good first step and acceleration, as well as the top end speed to pull away from defenders and create breakaways and odd-man rushes. He also has very good agility and edgework, giving him the ability to beat defenders both with and without the puck. Lavoie is tough to knock off the puck, with excellent balance. He has a wide skating stance, giving him a low centre of gravity. His stride is powerful…”

    Steve Kourianous – Draft analyst: “A puck-possessing machine with speed, size and excellent awareness in the offensive zone, … By keeping his feet moving while operating with his head on a swivel, Lavoie keeps opponents guessing and rarely do you see him make a telegraphed play… Lavoie is an excellent skater with above-average straight line speed and enough agility to weave around or fake opponents out of position. He is extremely strong on his skates and can maintain puck possession under physical pressure, using his long reach and wide stance to shield the puck.”

    Hannah Stuart – theScoreMay 1st: “He’s another prospect with NHL size, already standing 6-foot-4, and he’s quite agile and fast considering.”

    We finally caught a break he’ll be the steal of the entire draft. I can’t wait for him driving to the net and collecting garbage goals off rebounds with his nice hands and big body.

  113. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon/Reg:
    In Holland’s 21 seasons young players debut ages
    4 – U21
    5 – 21yr
    6 – 22yr
    6 – None u23
    He would prefer age 23 or 22 as debut year.

    Reports of Puljujarvi return are interesting.

    In sept:
    Puljujarvi is 2 years from 23
    Benson is 2 years from 23
    Yamamotto is 2 year from 23
    Mcleod is 3 years from 23
    Lavoie is 4 years from 23

    Holland said “ we are making moves this year to set-up down the road without sacrificing this year.”

    10 evg scorers in 1 of last 2 seasons
    Mcdavid C
    Draisaitl RW, C, LW
    RNH C
    Neal LW, RW
    Kassian RW
    Chaisson LW,RW
    Archibald RW
    Granlund LW, RW
    Puljujarvi LW,RW
    Khaira LW,C
    Holland wants double digit scorers.
    That is 10 he knows have got 10 @ even

    Jurco LW,RW
    Nygard LW
    Haas C
    Brodziak C
    These 4 have speed.

    It is nice to think that all the U23 forwards ( but Puljujarvi) may cook some more in AHL for 1 to 2 more years.

    No more
    If he is ready.
    Maybe he can

    Yes!

    Forward speed driving entry & penetration while maintaining a 3-2-1 structure with dmen as 4th, 5th uncovered HD shot options.

    Limited free path to HD area risk.

  114. rickithebear says:

    Tippett saying Russell at LD
    Larrson 1st comp RD
    Benning 2nd comp RD
    Persson 3rd comp RD

    Makes for interesting LD usage.

  115. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear: Brodziak C
    These 4 have speed.

    Are you sure your intel on Brodziak is correct? I didn’t see him fast last season. In fact, I saw him a step behind the play. He may have been fast when he was younger, but I don’t think that is the case anymore and it may be the reason he doesn’t make the team this year.

  116. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear: Jaxon/Reg:
    In Holland’s 21 seasons young players debut ages
    4 – U21
    5 – 21yr
    6 – 22yr
    6 – None u23
    He would prefer age 23 or 22 as debut year.

    Every manager would prefer that. But only top teams can do that. It was a lot easier for him to keep players in the AHL longer as his NHL team was stacked for 15 years and it was tough and unnecessary for youngsters to crack the lineup. Everyone talks about the ‘Detroit Model’ of development, but that model only worked because they had a dynasty-like team, and much of that time when players were simmering in the minors was when he had no cap limit.

    ’12-’13: D Lashoff 31GP as a 22 yr old.
    ’13-’14: RW Jurco 36GP as a 21 yr old. C Sheahan 42GP as a 22 yr old.
    ’15-’16: C Larkin 80GP as a 19 yr old. Athanasiou 37GP as a 21 yr old.
    ’17-18: LW Bertuzzi 48GP as a 22 yr old.
    ’18-’19: C Rasmussen 62GP as a 19 yr old. D Cholowski 52GP as a 20 yr old. D Horonek 46GP as a 21 yr old.

    3 of 4 under 21s came in the last 4 years.
    3 of 5 21 yr olds came in the last 6 years.
    3 of 6 22 yr olds came in the last 7 years.

  117. London Jon says:

    Just reading the Athletic article on who should replace Fenton.

    Chiarelli is mentioned as an option by the author 😂😂😂

    The only way Riverboat Pete gets another GM job is if the owner is also in the market for murdering someone.

    Every court in the land would let you off on the grounds of insanity if you’d also just hired Peter Chiarelli.

  118. godot10 says:

    Ryan:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Actually, it is a curious trade.

    The Sens are on the hook for $940k of Callahan’s actual salary.

    So the Sens paid almost a million dollars to upgrade a sixth round pick to a fifth and dump $2.5 m in actual money owed to Condon.

    So they save a little over a million and a half, but don’t actually have a hockey player in the deal.

    It does look like they let the Bolts off pretty easy.

    It is over $2 million in savings in real dollars. Condon is owed $3 million actual dollars in the last year of his deal.

    The Senators are a cash poor team. $2 million something matters to them.

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