A flight from Edmonton to Yaroslavl (to see Ilya Konovalov) is described as “one day and six hours” although it’s 13.5 Edmonton to Moscow and 5.5 Moscow to Yaroslavl making it a breeze over two days.
On the other hand, it’s a 54-hour drive from Halifax (Raphael Lavoie) to Bakersfield (all of the farm hands) and that’s probably a tougher row to hoe.
The dedicated Oilers observer must take into account time zones across the planet and constantly be on guard for breaking news. Even now, with Jesse Puljujarvi posting crooked numbers in some strange tournament, and with Konovalov playing for Lokomotiv on Wednesday, we’re on our way (uh huh uh huh) from misery to happiness.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, take advantage of the incredible Labor Day Weekend offer here!
- New Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
- New Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
- New Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
- New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
- New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
- New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
- Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
Anticipation
For me, the Bakersfield Condors are going to be the epicenter for viewing Oilers prospects this winter. My personal list includes (or may include) Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov and hopefully Ostap Safin.
Newcomers are always the interesting ones to watch in the AHL. Why? Well, last year’s top AHL rookies (Marody, Benson, Lagesson, Day, Starrett) have established an impressive individual and group plateau. In most years Oilers have a few hills, several valleys, and dozens of boggy moors.
It’s important for Edmonton to follow up the impressive group from 2018-19 with a strong set of rookies to add to the cluster. These seasons in Bakersfield will sustain the team through the end of next decade if players like Bouchard and Samorukov are as they appear.
Beyond that, I have a few players I’ll be following closely. Michael Kesselring is tracking well as a giant puck mover and is off to Northeastern University this fall. Northeastern is in Boston, there’s a statue of Cy Young on the campus grounds.
The 2019 draft is going to be fascinating, partly because the age range is so great. Expectations have to be filtered through birth date if we’re going to gain a more accurate view. Here are the birthdates youngest to oldest and level expected in 2019-20:
LD Philip Broberg is 18, born June 25, 2001. He’ll play in Skelleftea this season, that’s SHL. NHL equivalencies (Vollman) suggest players in this league should be expected to bring 58 percent of offense to the NHL. It is the second best league in captivity.
Maxim Denezhkin is 18 and born December 10, 2000. He will play for Yaroslavl of the MHL. Players from the MHL retain 15 percent of offense but it’s a number with small sample.
RC-RW Raphael Lavoie is 18, born September 25, 2000. He’s nine months older than Broberg, so adjust your sights accordingly. He plays in a league expected to retain 25 to 28 percent of offense on the way to the NHL. Based on advanced age and league, he’ll need to deliver a handsome goal total in 2019-20.
Tomas Mazura is 18 and born September 23, 2000 about the same age as Lavoie. He also plays in Hockey East this coming season, 38 percent of overall offense can be trusted.
Matej Blumel is 19 and born in May 2000. He’s an older player, older than Lavoie, so his output has to be demonstrably stronger than younger prospects. He will play in Hockey East, where 38 percent of the offense is real.
Ilya Konovalev is 21, born July of 1998. He’s so advanced we should observe him in the KHL as a possible arrival in 2020-21 or the following year. Massive year in 2018-19 (.930) and a repeat would be impressive. KHL is the world’s best league not named the NHL, and retains 74 percent of offense.
There will be some surprises along the way but that’s my list of players who will be prominent follows. How about you?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We kickstart the first week of hockey starting at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will pop in at 10:20, we’ll chat about the summer, Jesse Puljujarvi and some possible roster additions via PTO. Andy McNamara from TSN1050 and TSN4Downs will talk CFL and NFL. Andrew Peard, Edmonton Oil Kings play-by-play announcer, will tee up a busy week for the team. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Rockit!
Great Post! Very creative, informative and entertaining. Thank You.
I was thinking the same thing. If you look at all situations pts/60, that allows you to find out if the stronger correlation between pts/g has more to do with just having a large sample size vs incorporating Toi/g data.
I.e, if all situations pts/60 gives similar results as pts/g, then it is just the power of larger sample size giving the greater predictive ability
Vs if pts/g is better than all situations pts/60, then perhaps the Toi Data has some predictive or corrective value.
May was 3 months ago.
June was 2 months ago.
Both Tippett and Gully have very recently said they see Gagner as a winger – Tippett a few weeks ago and Gully just few days ago.
Archibald is 100% an every day player for Tippett to start the season.
He has expressed he likes pairs and one of the three pairs he said he sees using is Granlund/Archibald
OriginalPouzar,
– Here’s Conner at the event in Toronto in the brace in June, and video limping:
https://www.baaz.com/trending/story/5cf6b6094e0c1105486950ea
– Here’s Conner in May with his knee brace:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/bc4tje/mcdavid_spotted_with_a_knee_brace_west_edmonton/
– No photo of Kinger at same place as CmD downtown one evening July, he was enjoying his rehab, walking gingerly, with Beverages…
– We can all hope he’s 100%, but he isn’t following off-season ideal protocol. Long-term this might be a good thing for the team in terms of giving different players opportunities. Missing 10 games wouldn’t be worst thing for this team at this stage (I’m not saying he is going to miss any time)
– No McD, means 2 skill guys have to play with Drai, and RNH has to be put in a situation where wingers play with him to score as well. Or another vintage Tippett team special
– The current strategy of Drai-McD-5th wheel is crack for team. Not how to build a cup
Bohologo,
Thanks for this! What a great read.
Hey Hunter!
Put me down for 104 pts & 10G for Poolparty.
And I’ll parlay that with a RFA contract that he signs with the Oil!
Go big or go home!
New for The Athletic: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
https://theathletic.com/1179129/2019/09/04/lowetide-ryan-nugent-hopkins-and-the-configuration-of-the-oilers-second-line/
Georgexs,
Great stuff Georgexs.
If I had time, I think I would play around with all situations pts/60 and PP pts/60 just to see how those numbers look
Mustard Tiger,
No love for Benning either.
Mustard Tiger,
Nobody likes Archibald.
I think right now the intent is to slot Gagner at 3C.
Benson likely starts in the A, although he won’t be there long, unless the varsity players rock it.
This is awesome, and what I expected, (And JP too, for other reasons, which is even better). Thank you for churning this out.
Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian
Benson-McDavid-Neal
Granlund-Khaira-Chiasson
Nygard-Cave-Gagner
Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Bouchard
Russel-Persson
Koskinen
Smith
That sounds reasonable, but how is it related to my comment?
JP:
In a 3 D graph team, Comp, ZS
My first year:
A player in the situation group:
Highest teammates
Lowest comp
Highest off FO ZS%
The evp/60 avg was 2.85
A player in the situation group:
Lowest teammates
Highest comp
Lowest Off FO ZS%
The evp/60 avg was .37
A goal dif average of -26
Quite a difrent expected result range depending on how the coach uses you.
Thanks Glov, you’re swell.
Ahhhhh, that’s cute.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
Lots of good stuff in yours too.
Georgexs,
Thanks very much for this. Impressive how much better Pts/Game does vs 5v5P/60. I asked because I’d like to use the best available predictor going forward and this is very clear (if it was .5 vs .53 then it’s likely in the noise). Much appreciated.
It sounds like I could probably manage to check/verify your correlations (that’s just R-squared?) though I’m not sure if/when I’ll find the time. Realistically I won’t, in part because I feel comfortable with your work/results. This is valuable though. Especially considering how much better Pts/Game does. It’s not even close. Very cool.
jp,
Well said. My reply feels clumsy in comparison.
rickithebear,
Kassian – career high
Chiasson – career high, and second half of season was ice cold
Archibald – career high, not qualified at league minimum by ARZ of all teams
Granlund – somewhat intriguing as he’s scored more before, has WAY more TK than GV, but 41% career FO and gets consistently out shot on the ice
Jurco – small sample size from ages ago
Gagner – small sample size, slow boots although high hockey IQ
You may be right, but there’s just as good a chance of these guys not being able to sustain. Proclaiming them as a slam dunk is just as foolish as admonishing those who don’t share your proprietary beliefs, in my opinion.
Personally speaking, I think Holland has made some decent, low-risk bets on these guys plus Haas and Nygard. If it doesn’t work they’re off the books next year. It’s a nice departure from coke machines to skill and speed. There’s potential for it to work. But if it doesn’t I won’t be as disappointed as years prior — better to swing for the fences than bunt and still miss.
don’t know what that is
don’t know what that is
don’t know what that is
don’t know what that is
rickithebear,
Ricki, don’t use that number??
Wheeeeze!
Could we be reasonable?
Most of these guys have been top 6 forwards based on even strength goals at least once in their careers. It’s not their established level and in most cases not something they’ve done (been) more than once. Saying they are top 6 forwards also doesn’t make it true.
And putting Jurco on the list (twice) is really absurd. Scored at a top 6 *rate* in *one* 29 game sample, with his remaining 172 career games coming at a 4th line rate. That guy is a top 6 forward…
Do you have the success rates:
Direct shots: goals success per pocession.
Goal success of Last pass to forward in pocession
Goal success of 2nd last pass to forward in pocession
% of 2nd assists per goal per pocession.
Established from 2 3d graphs differentiated by ( FO zone start) & (Bench change ZS)
From individual situation group averages based on Team, Comp, ZS.
That allows you to compare an AHL players +ve and negative performance relative to the 4 success rates per pocession different
Zone start.
I have repeatedly pointed out ZS flaws influence on pocession measure.
I have repeatedly pointed out difference between FO ZS and bench change ZS.
I have stated the difference in value of direct shooting and passing in goal per pocession efficiency.
Their are 2 x (128 or 256) seperate situation averages for any of the 4 goal per pocession given play measure.
Which two did benson play in last year in AHL.
Not stating that provides 0% real context.
So when we add Drai, RNH and McDavid, we have 10 top 6 forwards?
OriginalPouzar,
I suggest that you PVR the Oilers and stream the Condors.
Top 62 evg scoring LW, RW are top 6 wingers.
Even & PP Goal scoring is the most important GF skill for a forward in wining play.
Most important GA forward skills
Ability to run efficient Fwd NZ trap in evga prevention thru entry reduction.
Top PKga/60 reduction fwd play.
Passing the puck to each other is not the top of the list.
Neal #37 LW 43 evg last 3 seasons
Kassian #37 RW 14 evg
Chiasson #43 RW 13 evg
Archibald #51 RW 12 evg
Granlund #60 LW 10 evg
Jurco #20 LW 1.02 evg/60
Gagner EDM 25gm 5 evg, #32
Jurco CHI 17-18 #20 LW 1.02 evg/60
Saying these guys are not top 6 forwards does not make it true.
Facts are Facts!
Pretending they are not is silly!
Heard that line in a few period movies.
Must have really been a problem.
Makes sense.
Flaws of Man.
A Top GA teams has won a cup being #28 gf team in last 10 seasons.
40% more top GA teams make final 8 than top GF teams.
1. Top HD area def coach
Tipett
2. Top 10 open HD save% goalie
Smith has multiple top 5 yrs.
3. 3+ top HD or Closed corsi def Dmen.
2 pairs would be prefered.
Manning #1 evga/60 dman 15-16 to 17-18
Larsson #2 evga/60 dman 15-16 to 17-18
Benning top 40 HD dman
Russell #1 Closed corsi Dman
We may not make playoffs cause of (Mcdavid 31 + Drai playing without Mcd 10 evg) 41 less evg on top.
But Neal a potential 18-20 evg would replace a portion of Mcdavids 31 in top 5.
Now we are down 22 evg.
We got 38 from bottom 7.2 last year.
Could we get 22 more evg (60) than than 38 from our bottom 7.2 fwd 590gm
Nygard 22G NHLe playing top 6 fwd winger minutes
Archibald #51 RW 12 evg playing 3RW
Granlund #60 LW 10 evg playing 3LW
Gagner RW/C 25gm 5 evg playing 75gm 12-15
Jurco #20 LW 1.02 evg/60
Khaira 10 evg in 17-18
Haas C
48 goals (12 evg each) from #6 to #9 fwd is not unrealistic.
With the wingers Holland got.
Can we get another 12 evg from #10 to #12
Brodziak & Cave big DZ FO eating centers.
Theres a film set in Ireland in 1847 called Black ’47 on Netflix. Hugo Weaving.
‘Shoulda kept your powder dry.’ is a sp-oiler line from it.
Word…from a geezer
[I should also add that the underperformance of points to shots and shot assists could be bad! It could be a stable, repeatable under-conversion, plenty of players run those throughout their career. We’ll see.]
Hunter, thanks for doing this again. I threw this out the other night in a bit of a foggy blather so here it is again…eternally optimistic and confident that the bettman crapshoot will finally roll our way and sideburns will return to vogue.
101 points and JP at 19 before he returns heroically to lead the oil to the finals of the stanley cup. Final results to follow.
I guess I should drop the info from my twitter thread that gave some context to the AHL season Benson had that Woodguy used in that peer group inquiry:
Really good to see the video of the “informal skates” today an so may kids and veterans on the ice.
So tough for me to be so busy at work at this point as I just don’t have time to check in on all the updates throughout the day. Haas and Nygard were on the ice and I haven’t had a chance to see if anyone knows how they looked and I see they both gave verbals and I haven’t had a chance to listen to.
Oh well, night time is time to catch up in between file work. Busy is good considering the last 5 years of my practice.
Was good to see the likes of Neal and Nuge and Bear, Skinner, etc. on the ice.
To be fair you need to take the other team’s best player off too and then compare, right?
Who are these teams that are so loaded up? Last year Caps Bolts Sharks and Flames were no brainers to many. What happened?
It’s wide open this season folks. The cap and age came to call.
What is Connor comes back healed well but Tippet is told not to play him excessively, and he doesn’t, and the rest of the team rallies around him, instead of going into TSN Highlights of the Night zombie mode watching him, and actually do their jobs?
Geezer fans may remember this story from Gretzky days. There is a natural tendency for others to sit back a bit when playing with a force of nature.
Connor playing 20 or under, and unless a goal is seriously needed, no PK which is a stupid old school macho man way to motivate the other troops IMO and a serious injury risk blocking shots, may actually be a good thing long term for the good guys.
Spread the feeling of ownership.
Take him off the ice and you have the worst team in the league.
I don’t know who that was.
I agree every season starts with a ‘new’ start, and for us after years of guessing the ending many are cynical about the whole thing.
I’m not as down on the signings because the player types are different, I think the player evaluation is better, that remains to be seen.
Chiasson is a head scratcher however a good right shot, plays the system and most importantly is well liked, which goes to the making a statement to players piece about keeping and rewarding players that did something for the team, in the face of no better options. I also don’t see any movement clauses so there’s that.
But yes the team remains underwhelming. And has a real battle to make playoffs. They also have a lot of potential and the stupid at the top has stopped as I see it.
From Gregor:
Gulutzan: It’s good to have these players who can play centre, but for me JJ is a winger. He’s a big body, he’s so strong along the walls, and he’s got the reach. I just like him as a winger. I’d like him to be set free a little bit and be in on the forecheck. This is an intimidating guy out there, I know from coaching against him, it’s somebody you’re aware of. He’s a big, heavy guy and when he hits you, he hits through you so I think he’s a winger.
But then again it’s so valuable to have those guys that can pitch you innings at centre ice and take some draws if things aren’t going well. I also think JJ is just scratching the surface, and there is going to be a big step ahead for him
———————————–
Come on Cooper – win that 3C spot on merit.
I wouldn’t consider a 2nd line of Nuge, Neal and Benson bereft of talent and scoring. There are two “bets” there but neithr Benson nor Neal are bereft of talent.
Granlund, Archibald, Gagner, Khaira, Chiasson, etc. – legit NHL players – a few of which may be on the fourth line due to “depth of options”.
The third line may have issue, potentially, but I’m confident in a strong fourth line.
Marody being legit NHL ready would make the bottom 6 look potentially good.
My opinion – clearly more optimistic.
I was very encouraged by Broberg’s top of team ice time in the two games this weekend. Champions League is NOT exhibition.
The organization’s public advise is that McDavid’s recovery is inline with the original recovery schedule which has him on the ice fully recovered for training camp.
7 weeks ago is 2 months from that time – not concerned about a limp noticed by a fan.
Biosteel camp is 3 weeks from that time – not concerned about not participating in an on-ice camp that is mainly marketing and PR.
The organization could be “pulling the blinds down over our eyes”, sure, however, unless I hear otherwise, I will take not be concerned.
When you take into consideration the actual time line of the buyout and the players that could be bought out to get the required winger(s) required Hollands options were limited. I believe Holland did not want to go into the season with over nine million in cap space tied up for two third pairing left shot D. I do not believe he had anything definite on the July 19th trade of Lucic for Neal when he made the decision to exercise the buyout of Sekera. Once the Lucic deal was consummated it changed the priority to acquire a scoring winger for the top six at least to a certain extent. While I do not necessarily agree with the resigning of Chaisson, it is cost effective insurance. He was I believe unwilling to pay the bigger dollar contracts for a free agent signing that came with high risk. Overall in my opinion Holland has done a very good job given what he had to work with. Time will tell and it should be an interesting year in Oilerville.
love it that you are doing this again. Thanks. I am waiting for Holland to finish the team before I stick my neck out and make my overly optimistic prediction. October will be here soon. Lots of opportunities will be around as teams try to become cap compliant.
To your earlier post/reply, nope, I certainly didn’t see McDavid limping. If there was actual video of that, I’m quite confident I would have seen it. All I know is he’s not skating in a near end of summer camp that is mainly a marketing/PR camp, in order to provide apx 2-3 more weeks of rest/healing time. I will not catastrophize unless he’s not participating fully in on-ice camp skates.
I don’t disagree with some of the points in the post above but some I do disagree with and don’t jive with how the cap would work.
I was (am against) the Sekera buyout but it was not “in the name of Chiasson”, it was to provide a few extra million dollars in general, to be in the market for signings, trades and in-season cap management. I wish there was another way found to open up some space but space was required and I see why they used the LD depth.
One major issue would be if Sekera was “unable to play”. I don’t think he would retired and throw away the millions of salary from the last year of his contract. He’s go on LTIR and that would be horrible for cap management (for the rest of this year and for building not off-season and during next year).
Further, if he is unable to play, he is not able to be bought out – leading to the egregious further LTIR situation.
Esa didn’t speak Finish, he speak “Tikkanese”.
Not an unreasonable option if he’s truly “done” – could potentially get a late pick back for the addition LTIR cushion “gift”.
Yes, I know, I am so against team’s using LTIR if they are looking to contend and improve during the year but TO is clearly using a huge LTIR relief cushion, the more the merrier for them I guess.