When Sinatra sings against Nelson Riddle’s strings

Although it seems impossible, there are prospects who attend rookie camp and make the NHL team in the same season. All the time.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, take advantage of the incredible Labor Day Weekend offer here!

  • New Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • New Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • New Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

This blog annually lists the rookies for camp and then a large group of people say “no one from this list will play in the NHL this season” and we bat that back and forth. Here are the men who made the Young Stars roster over the last several years and then played in the NHL same season:

2018: Evan Bouchard, Caleb Jones, Joe Gambardella, Cooper Marody, Kailer Yamamoto

2017: Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear

2016: Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula

2015: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Anton Slepyshev

2014: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Laurent Brossoit, Bogdan Yakimov, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil

2013: Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin

2011: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Ken Holland and Dave Tippett may not employ Bouchard and the rest but my guess is that at least one of these men finds their way to the NHL this season:

Goalies (3): Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue, Dylan Wells. 

Left Defense (4): Jaxon Bellamy, Ethan Cap, Brendan De Jong, Dmitri Samorukov.

Right Defense (3): Evan Bouchard, Logan Day, Vincent Desharnais.

Center (4): Cameron Hebig, Steve Iacobellis, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod. 

Left Wing (5): Tyler Benson, Liam Keeler, Beau Starrett, Jakub Stukel, Nolan Vesey.

Right Wing (4): Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin, Kailer Yamamoto. 

Price for Puljujarvi

If the Oilers trade JP before the start of the season, and I think it’s a distant bell, a young AHL plug and play in his entry deal would seem to be an acceptable return. Here are some candidates and their AHL numbers from a year ago:

Alex Barre-Boulet. He is 22, his rookie AHL season (at 21) saw him deliver 74, 34-34-68 (.92). He is quick and skilled, plays RW most of the time according to reports.

Jordan Kyrou. He would be a very good target. Righty forward, he is 21 and last year (at 20) scored 47, 16-27-43 (.92). Impressive skater, great skill.

Denis Gurianov. He is 22 and last year (21) was his second AHL season. He was 57, 20-28-48 (.84), and has size, skill and a scorer’s touch. Fine skater.

Taylor Raddysh. He is 21, he was 20 as a rookie and posted 70, 18-28-46 (.66) as a rookie. Big winger is a scorer, he played on McDavid’s Erie Otters in 2014-15.

Eeli Tolvanen. He is 20, played at 19 as an AHL rookie in 2018-19. Posted 58, 15-20-35 (.60) and may be regarded as having a more substantial future than Puljujarvi.

Julien Gauthier. He is 21, he was 20 in his second season (October 15 birthday) last year. Posted 75, 27-14-41 (.55) in year two in the AHL. Corey Pronman’s report on him in the recent Hurricanes prospect ranking is legit encouraging but Gauthier isn’t full value for JP.

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144 Responses to "When Sinatra sings against Nelson Riddle’s strings"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    Hunter,

    Please put me down for

    89 Oiler points
    13 JP goals

  4. McNuge93 says:

    I wonder if there is a sliver of an opportunity with Pulu given the number of cap strapped teams and their RFA problems. One benefit of Pulu playing games already is that teams can gain confidence that his hip is fully recovered. Could a Tampa or Toronto offload a bit of salary and replace that player with Pulu who is cheap and has potential if developed properly?

    We have our own issues but it is enjoyable to see some good teams with huge problems signing their RFAs and staying under the cap. I can’t see how Toronto can do it without offloading someone. And the pressure will really start to build in the next couple of weeks. Good times.

  5. dustrock says:

    hunter1909:
    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    80 points.

    JP goals: 19

    Lack of pro wingers, think the D is stale compared to the other teams in the division, unless Persson/Bouchard can somehow step in.

    Don’t believe in the goaltending. What if Koskinen is the same and Smith really has fallen off a cliff? Season is over.

    Also think other than maybe LA the entire division improved and we stood still.

    I was apparently overly optimistic last year with my 88 points guess so I’ll go even lower.

  6. Ben says:

    Hunter:

    88pts
    6 goals

    plz + ty

  7. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    I’d guess Skinner, Bouchard, Marody and Benson as having the most likely shot at playing in the NHL this year.

    Maybe it’s rose (copper?) coloured glasses, but I have faith that it’ll be done in the right fashion this year. No yoyo, and no shiny new toy syndrome. If they make the team it’ll be on merit, not due to having only two NHL centres, etc.

    For the record, of those young men, I’d really only want to see Marody and maybe Benson get any substantial games. For the others, I’d be fine with for a cup of coffee in garbage time to ramp up their development for next season.

  8. Waiting for a cup says:

    Hunter:

    98 points
    29 goals

  9. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Curious how much of your prediction is gut feeling vs. analytic based, like comparing rosters of our division rivals and road trips, back to back situations etc.

  10. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    This was great – thanks! Will be /really/ interesting to re-visit this at the end of the season (if we can still see through all the tears).

  11. fistycuff says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Hunter. Thanks for doing this again. Could you put me in for 88 pls, And jp gets 17 goals.

  12. Tbags Funhouse says:

    Hunter:

    91pts Oilers

    21 goals for Mr. p

    thanks to you and LT for this added flavor to an amazing platform for both new and used Oilers consumers.

  13. wetcoastoil says:

    Hunter, put me down for 93 pts, 25 goals

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think the order of likelihood of playing in the NHL from the list has to be: Benson, Marody, Bouchard, Yamamoto.

    While I am hopeful the latter two are given at least 40 AHL games each, if not more, no matter how they and/or others are playing, prior to them being in the conversation for an NHL call up – real development time – I do expect both will get NHL time this season.

    Samorukov, Maksimov, McLeod are long shots for me and likely only seen if there is a huge sell-off at the deadline (not a good season) – which there could be given all the short term contracts.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have brought up Tolaven in the past as they type of player I’d expect back in a Puljujarvi trade – high upside but struggling. Less pedigree but better arrows right now.

    Kyrou’s season in the AHL somewhat compares to Benson’s.

  16. Ben says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    This is predictably great.

    As horrawful as the team’s depth chart looks today, it’s really only a 1st and 2nd line winger away from respectable.

    If Benson can cut his teeth with 60 games split between 2nd/3rd lines this year and take over that 2nd line wing spot in 20/21, Holland just needs to find $ and room for a Zucker on the top line.

    Since they don’t have the horses for playoffs anyhow–this will be a good year to tactically break in half a dozen prospects. Betting the Condors burn through a good chunk of Katz’s air miles.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    When looking at AHL numbers for some of these players, lets not forget what Jesse did in the AHL as an 18 year old – 28 points in 39 games as the youngest player in North American professional hockey.

    His 18 year old season in the AHL has been understated.

    Yes, he’s seemingly regressed but, considering he’s just 21, I’m thinking that pedigree will be coming back.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    83 points for Oil
    6 g for JP (traded)

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    There is absolutely no team that needs what JP brings in the league at the moment.

    The only way he gets traded is for another reclamation project coming the other way, and another GM’s goodwill. Whether that’s through respect or owed favor to Ken, or momentary insanity.

    But I forget; after lighting up the Z league by December, 30 teams are going be beating down our doors for him.

    Oh, and the return has to be picks. We literally can’t take back salary of an actual useful roster player.

  20. buck yoakam says:

    hunter1909,

    Hello Hunter…please put me down for 83 points and 14 goals for JP…thanks to you for your efforts! and thanks lowetide for this always entertaining mind meld…

  21. Chris says:

    Hunter:

    Put me down for 86 pts
    Puljujarvi will score 8 goals before he’s traded.

  22. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This was a great article. It would be a Christmas miracle if Benson was for real.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    Price for Puljujarvi

    The players mentioned would be good targets, but I think I’d want a pick back too with all of them. Maybe a 2nd, maybe a 3rd, but 1-for-1 would count as a loss for me.

  24. Bob Arctor says:

    Hunter:
    14 goals JP
    82 points oil

  25. Bling says:

    Hunter:
    20 goals for JP
    94 points Oilers

  26. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I’ve got a feeling about Benson and Nuge. Didn’t like what I saw with Gagner or Chaisson on his wing. Like woodguy said Benson Nuge and Neal might be the best 2nd line option.

  27. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hunter,

    Please put me down for

    89 Oiler points
    13 JP goals

    Irrational exuberance or have you figured something out?

    I’d like an 89 point campaign, but I don’t know where the 10 standing points come from.

  28. Wonder Llama says:

    Hunter:

    80 points for the Oilers

    10 goals for JP

    Thanks

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Price for Puljujarvi

    The players mentioned would be good targets, but I think I’d want a pick back too with all of them. Maybe a 2nd, maybe a 3rd, but 1-for-1 would count as a loss for me.

    For Raddysh I’d want their 1st, as it’s likely to be very late.

  30. Krid says:

    Hi Hunter,

    Please give me 90 oilers points and 20 for JP.

    Not because I believe the oilers will hit it, but because I want them to.

  31. stephen sheps says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, please put me down for my usual 83

    As to young JP? He’s going to score 12

    Also, for those who might be interested I will continue with the weekly Yak now that the KHL season is underway.

    In fact, my son scored the game winning goal on the power play in a 3-1 SKA victory over Metalurg. He also had 2 penalties. He’s currently the 2LW and playing on the PP1 in the Ovie slot, based on the grainy replay I managed to find of the goal.

    go YAK go!

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Curious how much of your prediction is gut feeling vs. analytic based, like comparing rosters of our division rivals and road trips, back to back situations etc.

    Mostly gut.

    If they had an Actual NHL 2RD and someone to help Nuge I’d probably guess ~95pts

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: This was great – thanks! Will be /really/ interesting to re-visit this at the end of the season (if we can still see through all the tears).

    Thanks Yeti!

    I still think that Tippett will look at the offensive talent that he has on the wing and keep Benson out of camp.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ben: This is predictably great.

    As horrawful as the team’s depth chart looks today, it’s really only a 1st and 2nd line winger away from respectable.

    If Benson can cut his teeth with 60 games split between 2nd/3rd lines this year and take over that 2nd line wing spot in 20/21, Holland just needs to find $ and room for a Zucker on the top line.

    Since they don’t have the horses for playoffs anyhow–this will be a good year to tactically break in half a dozen prospects. Betting the Condors burn through a good chunk of Katz’s air miles.

    Thanks Ben

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Irrational exuberance or have you figured something out?

    I’d like an 89 point campaign, but I don’t know where the 10 standing points come from.

    Mostly not overplaying their goalies.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    This was a great article. It would be a Christmas miracle if Benson was for real.

    Thanks.

    I think he’s the real deal and eventually will be an Actual NHL Top 6 forward.

    No miracles necessary.

    Doesn’t mean he’ll do too much in 19/20 though

  37. HugThePost says:

    Hunter,

    Put me down for 74 points.

    Jesse to score 22 goals this year.

    I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but there is ominous smoke blowing around 97’s knee and I don’t think we have a #1 goalie,

    It’ll be a lottery year again I’m afraid.

  38. Rich M says:

    Hunter, put me down for 85 points and 15 goals.

    Hope I’m low on both.

  39. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Mostly not overplaying their goalies.

    Unfortunately we have to play at least one of the two every game😛

  40. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think the order of likelihood of playing in the NHL from the list has to be: Benson, Marody, Bouchard, Yamamoto.

    I wonder whether Marody might be first cab off the rank owing to being a touch older – is it time for him to grab a place in camp, maybe 3rd line? Whereas Benson could potentially be best served by continuing in the AHL unless they plan to use him immediately on the top two lines.

  41. Yeti says:

    stephen sheps: Also, for those who might be interested I will continue with the weekly Yak now that the KHL season is underway.

    No Belov Bonus this year??!

  42. tileguy says:

    Hunter;
    72 points for the Oil
    33 goals for JP.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: Hunter,

    Please put me down for

    89 Oiler points
    13 JP goals

    Do you anticipate Puljujarvi only plays a few months or has a middling season?

  44. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    This was excellent. I think a lot of it confirmed what I myself was thinking, so of course I liked it, lol. But it is always great to see the data. And your framing was perfect. Thank you for all the work.

  45. jp says:

    Ryan,

    Regarding Chiasson:

    I can agree that his may not have been the ideal signing for a team in need of more skill in the top 6. And yes, he could certainly have impacted Holland’s ability to add one of the other available UFAs. I believe Chiasson was signed after Connolly chose Florida though, so he seemingly didn’t affect that one at least.

    I would have preferred one of the other UFAs (on their current deals) to Chiasson as well, but:

    1) We don’t know that those players were willing to sign in Edmonton for those terms

    2) Each of those players has their own question marks and risk (the argument against Chiasson is essentially identical as the argument against Connolly for instance). They all cost at least 50% more per season than Chiasson and most got more term as well. So it’s not cut and dried that those deals were better for the Oilers current situation than the one Chiasson signed.

    And yes, the Chiasson money could potentially also have been used on a player from a cap strapped team.

    For Sekera, we’ll see how he does this season. The fact that the Oilers decided to buy him out and the deal he got from Dallas suggest that he may not be able to get back near previous levels. If so then a buyout was the right move regardless how the money was spent.

    I think we largely agree on these points, though I still don’t hate the Chiasson signing for the Oilers. Where we differ is our valuation of the player. I agree that last year was very likely his career season and that he isn’t likely to score 22 goals again. I also think (as I said) the deal is completely fair value for the player going forward (which is different than saying it was a good signing by the Oilers given their situation).

    It’s popular to call Chiasson a 4th line player, but it’s not really true. His goal scoring rates (5v5/60 >500min) have been 134th, 183rd and 150th in the league the past 3 seasons. His point rates have been 244th, 268th and 275th. So he’s performed (even without McDavid and Draisaitl) as a 2nd line goal scorer and low end 3rd line point producer at even strength.

    He’s found a bit of a role in Edmonton so I think he’s a very good bet to score 15-20 goals and 30-35 points this season. Some regression, but a chunk of the gains should be maintained. Maybe he falls off next year, but that would still be fine value for the overall deal relative to cap.

  46. Rich M says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Excellent work Woodguy. I like the idea of Benson being a call-up option at some point this season and having the opportunity to continue to build on last season. If he can produce to the median of your sample size, he would be a great addition.

    We hope (and wait).

  47. Henry says:

    The quality and tone of posts this weekend has been really good this weekend. Thanks to all for your insights. There is such a smart group in the Oilers’ fanbase. I think, irrationally perhaps, that the management is catching up.

    Hunter, please put me down for 103 points. Irrational overexuberence is a symptom of the September syndrome. 20 goals for JP, no trade this year. Holland is burying a marker.

  48. JonyPro says:

    Hunter,

    Put me down for 105 points.

    Jesse to score 15 goals this year.

    Thank you for your hard work.

  49. jp says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, put me down for 102 points, and 23 goals for Puljujarvi. Thanks.

  50. Munny says:

    Hunter, please let us know if the Paypal on your website is still operational.

  51. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Hunter,

    Please slot me for an optimistic 94 (Smytty!) points. I think JP gets traded sooner than later, and ends up with 7 goals.

    Thanks!

  52. saddleblazer says:

    Hunter,

    Thanks for this. Put me down for 80pts and 12 goals.

  53. Munny says:

    Via Nhl.com

    Washington Capitals general manager Brian McLellan told Tom Gulitti he isn’t ruling out making a trade to become cap compliant before the season opens next month.

    “I think we’ll probably have to move someone,” MacLellan said. “Injuries and all the stuff that happens in training camp and exhibition season probably dictates it a little bit, but we’re going to be patient. We’re not in a rush. We’ll wait and let it play itself out.”

    After a dead August, and with all those RFAs floatin around out there, September might see a flurry of action. Gonna be interesting. Waiver wire gonna be fun to watch too.

  54. stephen sheps says:

    Yeti: No Belov Bonus this year??!

    I’ll have bonuses for Belov and his other brother Anton (Lander) from time to time, certainly monthly at least. Today’s Yak update was just a real quick one.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you anticipate Puljujarvi only plays a few months or has a middling season?

    He’s never been much of a goal scorer and I think he’s traded in November

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: This was excellent.I think a lot of it confirmed what I myself was thinking, so of course I liked it, lol.But it is always great to see the data.And your framing was perfect. Thank you for all the work.

    Thanks Munny!

  57. MushedPeas says:

    I’ll bite. 96 points, 22 JPs.
    #wehopedforthebest…

  58. jp says:

    stephen sheps: I’ll have bonuses for Belov and his other brother Anton (Lander) from time to time, certainly monthly at least. Today’s Yak update was just a real quick one.

    And don’t forget Toby.

  59. stephen sheps says:

    jp: And don’t forget Toby.

    Peterson? I kid… but instead of following MacT’s son, I may do updates on MacT’s coaching record in the K, just for kicks.

    I have to admit never being all that enamoured with Tobi Rieder. I wish him well and hope he signs somewhere, but I don’t think he’s going to make my series. I’m sure others on the blog will appreciate updates from time to time if you have the interest or desire to provide them.

  60. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Benson may the salve that soothes the pain of JPitis….

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Unfortunately we have to play at least one of the two every game

    ZING!!

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rich M,

    Thanks RIch

  63. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Jethro Tull:
    There is absolutely no team that needs what JP brings in the league at the moment.

    The only way he gets traded is for another reclamation project coming the other way, and another GM’s goodwill. Whether that’s through respect or owed favor to Ken, or momentary insanity.

    But I forget; after lighting up the Z league by December, 30 teams are going be beating down our doors for him.

    Oh, and the return has to be picks. We literally can’t take back salary of an actual useful roster player.

    Truth

  64. bendelson says:

    Hunter: 77points
    JP: 7 goals
    Ouch.

  65. Munny says:

    bendelson: JP: 7 goals

    I’m guessing this is a sooner rather than later prognosis?

  66. Side says:

    hunter1909,

    90 points
    20 goals

  67. dmjkrash says:

    78 points and 14 goals for JP.
    I really hope Benson earns second line left winger with Nuge and Neal after showing great chemistry in the preseason. 97’s knee scares me too as I have heard it’s been totally misdiagnosed. We are going to need an all around effort from everyone and team defense, good goaltending and win lots of low scoring Tippett type games to have a chance to make playoffs.
    I hope they can make a deal with Carolina for JP. At least we don’t have to worry about friggin hurricanes here!

  68. bendelson says:

    Munny: I’m guessing this is a sooner rather than later prognosis?

    Traded after training camps wrap up…

  69. jp says:

    stephen sheps: Peterson? I kid… but instead of following MacT’s son, I may do updates on MacT’s coaching record in the K, just for kicks.

    I have to admit never being all that enamoured with Tobi Rieder. I wish him well and hope he signs somewhere, but I don’t think he’s going to make my series. I’m sure others on the blog will appreciate updates from time to time if you have the interest or desire to provide them.

    Are/were you enamoured with Belov? 🙂

    In any case fair enough, and I may.

    Thanks for the Yak updates as well.

  70. Mustard Tiger says:

    hunter1909,

    Oilers: 96 points
    Jesse: 22 goals

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Really good thx for that

  72. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    bendelson: Traded after training camps wrap up…

    Very likely not going to happen. I realize the fanbase is looking for closure (and maybe a little near term gratification) but Holland has no incentive to move this along. The Oil are very unlikely to make the playoffs this year (your 77 points sounds about right to me) so Ken’s job is to set the table for the following years.

  73. stephen sheps says:

    jp: Are/were you enamoured with Belov? 🙂

    I thought Belov had potential, yeah. But mostly I started doing the Belov Bonus because it sounded funny to me, and it opened things up for countless terrible “this is Anton and his other brother Anton” jokes that were in character with the cheesy Russian/80s TV references I was already making in the series.

    Just for you though, I’ll keep an eye on Rieder from time to time. Why not, right?

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    That’s some tasty spam. Well written and thought out, as always

  74. Yeti says:

    stephen sheps: I’ll have bonuses for Belov and his other brother Anton (Lander) from time to time, certainly monthly at least. Today’s Yak update was just a real quick one.

    Sounds good. Sometimes a quickie is all we need.

  75. stephen sheps says:

    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    Some of you know this already, especially if we’re connected on that twitter machine I rarely use, but over the last couple of years I’ve been researching and writing on hockey analytics and the erosion of evidence-based inquiry in the MSM. I interviewed a bunch of analytics folks (actual content creators) from around these parts and across Canada and the US to find out what they do, why they do it and how they’ve managed to push back against the ‘hockey men’ that seem to dominate the conversation in mainstream sport media.

    After months of research and writing, going through the usual peer-review process and a round of revisions, I’m proud to announce that my article “Corsi, Fenwick and Gramsci: How bloggers and advanced analytics are changing the National Hockey League” has been published in the International Review for the Sociology of Sport.

    If you have access to a university library that has the right subscription, you can find it here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1012690219869192

    If you would like a copy, I’m happy to email you the pdf. feel free to drop me a line at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com. I tried my best to do right by this little community of ours, since this paper wouldn’t have happened without the encouragement of our host and a little help from a few folks that pop in here from time to time.

    *****END SPAM*****

  76. defmn says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Very likely not going to happen. I realize the fanbase is looking for closure (and maybe a little near term gratification) but Holland has no incentive to move this along. The Oil are very unlikely to make the playoffs this year (your 77 points sounds about right to me) so Ken’s job is to set the table for the following years.

    I tend to agree with this with one proviso. It is possible that one of the teams that is in cap trouble after all of their RFA signings decides they need to move somebody in order to become compliant and rather than take a draft pick they prefer to trade for Jesse and park him in Finland for the season.

    I think that is a long shot but I can see where that might happen.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping the coaches think so to, although, at the end of the day, its up to the player and I believe in this kid:

    Bob Stauffer
    @Bob_Stauffer
    ·
    29m
    There will be a lot of focus on Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear At training camp.
    But William Lagesson has a great chance to make the Oilers.
    Had 8-19-27, +25 in 67 GP with
    @Condors
    last season.
    Staunch defensive D, who saw a few games on the right side.

  78. Yeti says:

    stephen sheps,

    Congratulations on the publication! I’m not sure that Gramsci would have anticipated his concepts being used in this manner, but no worries – he’s dead. Perhaps if you stick a pre-proof copy up on ResearchGate, those without university library access via the extended state will still be able to get access?

  79. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    Some of you know this already, especially if we’re connected on that twitter machine I rarely use, but over the last couple of years I’ve been researching and writing on hockey analytics and the erosion of evidence-based inquiry in the MSM. I interviewed a bunch of analytics folks (actual content creators) from around these parts and across Canada and the US to find out what they do, why they do it and how they’ve managed to push back against the ‘hockey men’ that seem to dominate the conversation in mainstream sport media.

    After months of research and writing, going through the usual peer-review process and a round of revisions, I’m proud to announce that my article “Corsi, Fenwick and Gramsci: How bloggers and advanced analytics are changing the National Hockey League” has been published in the International Review for the Sociology of Sport.

    If you have access to a university library that has the right subscription, you can find it here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1012690219869192

    If you would like a copy, I’m happy to email you the pdf. feel free to drop me a line at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com. I tried my best to do right by this little community of ours, since this paper wouldn’t have happened without the encouragement of our host and a little help from a few folks that pop in here from time to time.

    *****END SPAM*****

    Congratulations on a job very well done (I’m not finished yet!) and thanks for including our humble group in what is a reflection of a time when something worthwhile was being hammered out into a living, breathing thing.

  80. stephen sheps says:

    Yeti,

    Thanks, Yeti. I rarely put things up on my research gate page and the formatting on the pre-proof will obviously be not as good (which is why I figured people could email me directly for the good version – man I hate academic paywalls!), but that’s a really good idea!

    Edit: here’s the research gate link to the free pre-print version: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335568370_Corsi_Fenwick_and_Gramsci_How_Bloggers_and_Advanced_Analytics_Are_Changing_the_NHL

    Edit #2 – My PhD supervisor actually wrote a book called Gramsci is Dead. The book was about activism, anarchism and social movements. The fact that I ‘brought him back to life’ for a project on hockey has been a constant source of laughs between us for a couple of years now.

  81. frjohnk says:

    stephen sheps:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    Some of you know this already, especially if we’re connected on that twitter machine I rarely use, but over the last couple of years I’ve been researching and writing on hockey analytics and the erosion of evidence-based inquiry in the MSM. I interviewed a bunch of analytics folks (actual content creators) from around these parts and across Canada and the US to find out what they do, why they do it and how they’ve managed to push back against the ‘hockey men’ that seem to dominate the conversation in mainstream sport media.

    After months of research and writing, going through the usual peer-review process and a round of revisions, I’m proud to announce that my article “Corsi, Fenwick and Gramsci: How bloggers and advanced analytics are changing the National Hockey League” has been published in the International Review for the Sociology of Sport.

    If you have access to a university library that has the right subscription, you can find it here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1012690219869192

    If you would like a copy, I’m happy to email you the pdf. feel free to drop me a line at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com. I tried my best to do right by this little community of ours, since this paper wouldn’t have happened without the encouragement of our host and a little help from a few folks that pop in here from time to time.

    *****END SPAM*****

    Fantastic. Would love to read it if possible. Will send you an email.

  82. SwedishPoster says:

    Yeti:
    stephen sheps,

    Congratulations on the publication! I’m not sure that Gramsci would have anticipated his concepts being used in this manner, but no worries – he’s dead. Perhaps if you stick a pre-proof copy up on ResearchGate, those without university library access via the extended state will still be able to get access?

    Gramsci’s dead? Oh that poor old hunchback. And to find out like this!

  83. colieo_87 says:

    Hunter

    79 points. 7 goals for JP

  84. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks LT. Seriously, I couldn’t have done it without the help of some people that contribute to this place, yourself included. Your encouragement (and willingness to read the first draft) was a significant part of this project.

  85. Munny says:

    stephen sheps,

    Congratulations, Stephen! A well-deserved +1 in your PF column, Publications For.

  86. Munny says:

    defmn,

    Agreed. That’s why I posted the Capitals quote above. There will be some interest generated that way, but we’ll see if a GM actually capitulates.

  87. Genjutsu says:

    hunter1909:
    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    Thanks for doing this again I’ll go:

    93 Oiler points
    27 goals for Jesse

  88. stephen sheps says:

    Munny:
    stephen sheps,

    Congratulations, Stephen!A well-deserved +1 in your PF column, Publications For.

    Thanks, Munny.

    Could always use a couple more, but slowly the total is beginning to climb…

  89. meanashell11 says:

    Hunter

    Please put me down for 101 points for the Oil and 27 goals for JP, prorated if he leaves the CHL early!

  90. hunter1909 says:

    Munny:
    Hunter, please let us know if the Paypal on your website is still operational.

    It should work. But not 100% certain.

    You will have an answer within 24:00 hours of this message.

  91. Munny says:

    meanashell11,

    I believe Hunter has clarified there’s no pro-rating, or double-number picks. Need to take a trade or no-trade into account with your estimate.

  92. Munny says:

    hunter1909,

    Beauty, thanks.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Yak updates will be supplemented by the Konovalov updates and, if he graduates from the MHL, the Denezhkin.

    As the non-NHL players start playing, I apologize in advance for the quantity of updates. I enjoy it though.

  94. Genjutsu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Yak updates will be superseded by the Konovalov updates and, if he graduates from the MHL, the Denezhkin.

    As the non-NHL players start playing, I apologize in advance for the quantity of updates. I enjoy it though.

    Thanks for all the updates. I enjoy reading them.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    dmjkrash:
    97’s knee scares me too as I have heard it’s been totally misdiagnosed.

    Given the resources at the disposal of the player and the organization, I anticipate that you were misled…..

  96. stephen sheps says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Yak updates will be superseded by the Konovalov updates and, if he graduates from the MHL, the Denezhkin.

    As the non-NHL players start playing, I apologize in advance for the quantity of updates. I enjoy it though.

    I’m not sure supersede means what you think it means.

    Happy to have you provide updates on whomever you’d like, but The Weekly Yak is not being replaced.

  97. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    Which is the more important skill.
    Shooting the puck in open space in net elevation past the goalie.
    Or
    Passing the puck between players.

    Chiasson 2@ 2.15M
    #43 RW 13 Evg; #42 Fwd 8 ppg; 21 non SH goals (NSHG)

    RW in 18-19
    Buchnevich (2@3.25) 14 evg; 7 ppg; 21 nshgnshg; (24 – 25)
    Chaisson (2@2.15); 13 evg, 8ppg; 21 nshg; (28 – 29 yr)
    D. Brown (3@5.875); 12 evg; 9 ppg; 21 nshg; (34 – 36)
    Eberle (5@5.5); 12 evg; 7 ppg; 19 nshg; (29 – 33)
    R. Smith (3@5.0); 14 evg; 4 ppg; 18 nshg; (28 – 30)
    Hornquist (4@5.3); 12 evg; 6 ppg; 18 nshg; (32 – 35)
    K. Hayes (7@7.143); 14 evg; 3 ppg; 17 nshg; (27 – 33)
    Bailey (5 @ 5.0); 13 evg; 2 ppg; 15 nshg; (29 – 33)
    Keller ELC (3@1.67); 13 evg; 1 ppg; 14 nshgnshg; (21 – 23)
    Donskoi (4@3.9); 13 Evg; 1 ppg; 14 nshg; (27 – 30)
    Panik (4 @ 2.75); 13 evg; 0 ppg; 13 nshgnshg; (28 – 31)

    I hear all the Chiasson is not a top 6 fwd,
    we would do better with …….

    One of my important theories is “False eye affect”
    Fans let their opinion of a player be formed by flashy plays.
    Rather than real baseline result.

    Their are elite passers who can generate a high % of easy open space shots.
    But they are a limited few.

    When it comes to high standard of base play.
    21 NSHG is fucking beautiful for 2.15M

    Top GA teams are 7 of every 8 final 4 team.

    A lot of False eye disciples.
    Think a good Dman is
    – abandoning HD area.
    – causing a Dpair to have bottom 60 evga/60
    – generating even goals at 4 times less than Foreards.

    Just brutal baseline def play!
    It is counter to NJD, DET, CHI, LAK def play.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    The word I meant to use was “supplemented”.

  99. Ryan says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    Thanks LT. Seriously, I couldn’t have done it without the help of some people that contribute to this place, yourself included. Your encouragement (and willingness to read the first draft) was a significant part of this project.

    Very cool!

    I gave it a quick scan, very interesting exposition of the battle between hockey men and nerds.

    Really enjoyed your ability to use term “hockey men” without the pejorative connotation it has here.

    Missed the explanation of why you interviewed 15 people, but only used 11 interviews?

    Lastly, when I read the word “netnography,” the first thing I thought of was “ethnography,” the second, Jane Goodall and I felt like a virtual chimpanzee lol.

  100. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Yak updates will be superseded by the Konovalov updates and, if he graduates from the MHL, the Denezhkin.

    As the non-NHL players start playing, I apologize in advance for the quantity of updates. I enjoy it though.

    Can’t have too many prospect updates. I don’t like reading the same piece 3 times though, if that’s your intention!

  101. stephen sheps says:

    Ryan,

    Thanks for reading and for the feedback – the main reason I only used 11 interviews this time was because the remaining 4 interviews just didn’t quite fit this article’s scope, but I knew they’d be useful for another one that I’m working on out of the same data set. Stay tuned.

    If any other questions come up, feel free to leave them here or shoot me an email. Happy to talk about it any time.

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Really good thx for that

    Thanks Slushy

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps: I thought Belov had potential, yeah. But mostly I started doing the Belov Bonus because it sounded funny to me, and it opened things up for countless terrible “this is Anton and his other brother Anton” jokes that were in character with the cheesy Russian/80s TV references I was already making in the series.

    Just for you though, I’ll keep an eye on Rieder from time to time. Why not, right?

    That’s some tasty spam. Well written and thought out, as always

    Thanks Stephen.

    Also congrats again on being published!

    I enjoyed your paper and found it informative in a subject I know well.

  104. HT Joe says:

    Hunter:

    Improvements vs. the 2018-2019 years:
    – replacing Lucic with Neal (just getting Lucic out of the top 6 is a win)
    – upgrading the bottom six
    – a Smith / Koskinen tandem (vs Koskinen / Talbot last year)
    – replacing “That coach in gray” and Hitch (I loved Hitch’s post-games) with Tippett
    – replacing Chia and his nonsensical morale-destroying in-season trades with Holland
    – a full season of Gagner (vs. having Spooner playing 1/3 of a season)
    None of these upgrades are substantial, but each of them nudges the team in the right direction.

    Losses vs. the 2018-2019 years:
    – McDavid is going to start the season getting over an injury so they probably shouldn’t play hims as many minutes over the first couple of weeks
    – A reasonable fan should expect fewer minutes and fewer points for Draisatl and McDavid
    – I felt that Sekera was ripe to return partially to form, which would have been a huge help – though I understand the decision, I remain disappointed that they bought him out
    – blueliners don’t develop in a straight line, and I expect some regression for Nurse’s points
    – The Oilers didn’t suffer too many injuries in-season last year, and are due for more substantial man-games lost this upcoming season

    The Oilers were 14th of 15 Western Conference teams last year, and with the selection of Broberg, their first overall will not help them win games in 2019-2020 (unlike, say, the Ducks who picked one spot after). While the Oilers traded Lucic for Neal, that won’t likely make the team markedly better… it will just make future cap and Seattle draft management easier. Smith had a great playoffs but the regular season wasn’t amazing, and Talbot (based on age and the blueliners he’ll be playing behind in Calgary) seems more likely to have the rebound season. Kailer should stay in the AHL, and Jesse isn’t likely coming back. I don’t see one big thing that made the team better.

    Maybe the goaltenders make an amazing tandem and McDavid / Drai keep on putting up crazy numbers, but in terms of a reasonable expectation, I don’t see the Oilers ending up higher 3rd last in the west. This would average to 76 points over the last 4 seasons.

    As for Jesse, what a waste of a draft pick. I don’t know why he won’t play for the Oilers, but time to guess his success this season with Karpat. Karpat will play 60 games, and a few years ago, there were 2 30-goal scorers in the entire league, and only 1 in 2018-2019. 24 goals would have been top-5 in the league last year. Jesse is a great talent, big, hopefully motivated, and moving back home. However, he’s coming off of double-hip surgery, though he scored in his first game. I suspect he gets better as the season wears on, and as crazy as this may sound, I’m betting 23 goals if he plays a full season. I have faith that Holland is savvy enough to not trade him until absolutely necessary (i.e., not rush into something before December 1st, since that’s the agent’s deadline, and not Holland’s).

    Hunter: Please put me down for 76 points for the Oilers 2019-2020 seasons, and 23 goals (he’s not getting traded before 2020 offseason)

  105. Munny says:

    This whole Labour Day Classic thing is not going well.

  106. Abbeef says:

    Hunter

    Please put me down for 96 pts (improved dzone coverage and pk)

    3 goals (traded before the end of training camp)

  107. dmjkrash says:

    Munny:
    This whole Labour Day Classic thing is not going well.

    Maas has got to go. No surprise in this boring offense he runs. Few penalties but they came at the worst point possible ( kick return for TD, defensive stop)

  108. buffalobill says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, I will take 107 points and 17 goals please and thank you

  109. GBandQ says:

    hunter1909,

    99 points for Oil.
    21 G for JP

  110. JamesL says:

    Hunter, put ol’ Jimmy down for 77 points for the Oilers and 20Gs for Jesse.

  111. dunterpunter says:

    85 Points.

    Dumb predictions:

    One of the 2 goalies will play well, the other will not. Then the one playing well will not be able to hold the workload.

    McDavid starts the year a little slow, gets slammed by MSM. Oilers burn out after Xmas break.

    Neal has a respectable season – all things considered ~17 goals, still gets ripped on.

    McDavid addresses/comments oilers management since his arrival at the end of this upcoming season. Adds heat.

    Nuge gets traded before his final year.

    I want the oilers to succeed. I just have a nagging thought that oilers are on such fragile ground right now that a soft reset may occur and oilers won’t see the playoffs for another 3 years. Please prove me wrong.

    Also – JP stays until December. 12 goals. We get a meh return that isn’t effective this year.

    Happy long weekend everyone!

  112. Melvis says:

    Hi Hunter!

    I’ll take 93 for the Oilers and 23 G for JP.
    Thanks.

  113. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    You’re not doing nearly enough detailed homework during the off season young man. Time someone cracked the whip. 😊

  114. northerndancer says:

    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    Some of you know this already, especially if we’re connected on that twitter machine I rarely use, but over the last couple of years I’ve been researching and writing on hockey analytics and the erosion of evidence-based inquiry in the MSM. I interviewed a bunch of analytics folks (actual content creators) from around these parts and across Canada and the US to find out what they do, why they do it and how they’ve managed to push back against the ‘hockey men’ that seem to dominate the conversation in mainstream sport media.

    After months of research and writing, going through the usual peer-review process and a round of revisions, I’m proud to announce that my article “Corsi, Fenwick and Gramsci: How bloggers and advanced analytics are changing the National Hockey League” has been published in the International Review for the Sociology of Sport.

    If you have access to a university library that has the right subscription, you can find it here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1012690219869192

    If you would like a copy, I’m happy to email you the pdf. feel free to drop me a line at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com. I tried my best to do right by this little community of ours, since this paper wouldn’t have happened without the encouragement of our host and a little help from a few folks that pop in here from time to time.

    *****END SPAM*****

    Congratulations Stephen Sheps! I have pm’d you and can’t wait to read it. Gramsci was strickly a first line kind of guy in my view.

    What a community you have created Lowetide. Beer review time everyone.

  115. Ryan says:

    stephen sheps:
    Ryan,

    Thanks for reading and for the feedback – the main reason I only used 11 interviews this time was because the remaining 4 interviews just didn’t quite fit this article’s scope, but I knew they’d be useful for another one that I’m working on out of the same data set. Stay tuned.

    If any other questions come up, feel free to leave them here or shoot me an email. Happy to talk about it any time.

    Reading the Vollman quote, it occurred to me the that the issue between the Nerds and ‘Hockey men’ could be ascribed to a rift due to a cataclysmic gap in Spearman’s g factor.

    In hockey, sometimes you’ll run into that, where you’ve explained something and it’s not that they disagree with your interpretation of the results or that they disagree with the way you gathered the data or how you got there, but they don’t even see value in even measuring something. Why would you even count how many of those events occurred, why would you even base an opinion on a measurement. That’s literally where they sort of get stuck.

    The ‘Hockey men’ in their cloistered NHL environment are drawing on a population largely with no additional selective forces. It’s surprising that it’s taken this long to look outside their ranks to gain a competitive advantage.

  116. hunter1909 says:

    HT Joe:
    Hunter:

    Improvements vs. the 2018-2019 years:
    – replacing Lucic with Neal (just getting Lucic out of the top 6 is a win)
    – upgrading the bottom six
    – a Smith / Koskinen tandem (vs Koskinen / Talbot last year)
    – replacing “That coach in gray” and Hitch (I loved Hitch’s post-games) with Tippett
    – replacing Chia and his nonsensical morale-destroying in-season trades with Holland
    – a full season of Gagner (vs. having Spooner playing 1/3 of a season)
    None of these upgrades are substantial, but each of them nudges the team in the right direction.

    Losses vs. the 2018-2019 years:
    – McDavid is going to start the season getting over an injury so they probably shouldn’t play hims as many minutes over the first couple of weeks
    – A reasonable fan should expect fewer minutes and fewer points for Draisatl and McDavid
    – I felt that Sekera was ripe to return partially to form, which would have been a huge help – though I understand the decision, I remain disappointed that they bought him out
    – blueliners don’t develop in a straight line, and I expect some regression for Nurse’s points
    – The Oilers didn’t suffer too many injuries in-season last year, and are due for more substantial man-games lost this upcoming season

    The Oilers were 14th of 15 Western Conference teams last year, and with the selection of Broberg, their first overall will not help them win games in 2019-2020 (unlike, say, the Ducks who picked one spot after).While the Oilers traded Lucic for Neal, that won’t likely make the team markedly better… it will just make future cap and Seattle draft management easier.Smith had a great playoffs but the regular season wasn’t amazing, and Talbot (based on age and the blueliners he’ll be playing behind in Calgary) seems more likely to have the rebound season.Kailer should stay in the AHL, and Jesse isn’t likely coming back.I don’t see one big thing that made the team better.

    Maybe the goaltenders make an amazing tandem and McDavid / Drai keep on putting up crazy numbers, but in terms of a reasonable expectation, I don’t see the Oilers ending up higher 3rd last in the west.This would average to 76 points over the last 4 seasons.

    As for Jesse, what a waste of a draft pick.I don’t know why he won’t play for the Oilers, but time to guess his success this season with Karpat.Karpat will play 60 games, and a few years ago, there were 2 30-goal scorers in the entire league, and only 1 in 2018-2019.24 goals would have been top-5 in the league last year.Jesse is a great talent, big, hopefully motivated, and moving back home.However, he’s coming off of double-hip surgery, though he scored in his first game.I suspect he gets better as the season wears on, and as crazy as this may sound, I’m betting 23 goals if he plays a full season.I have faith that Holland is savvy enough to not trade him until absolutely necessary (i.e., not rush into something before December 1st, since that’s the agent’s deadline, and not Holland’s).

    Hunter:Please put me down for 76 points for the Oilers 2019-2020 seasons, and 23 goals (he’s not getting traded before 2020 offseason)

    If it’s okay with Lowetide and yourself, I’d like to stick this brilliant post on the Death March™ website; front and centre.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    How about those Amazing Flames? Talbot+Lucic both itching for payback.

  118. Rich M says:

    stephen sheps,

    Outstanding read Stephen. Start to finish.

  119. Harpers Hair says:

    HT Joe:
    Hunter:

    Improvements vs. the 2018-2019 years:
    – replacing Lucic with Neal (just getting Lucic out of the top 6 is a win)
    – upgrading the bottom six
    – a Smith / Koskinen tandem (vs Koskinen / Talbot last year)
    – replacing “That coach in gray” and Hitch (I loved Hitch’s post-games) with Tippett
    – replacing Chia and his nonsensical morale-destroying in-season trades with Holland
    – a full season of Gagner (vs. having Spooner playing 1/3 of a season)
    None of these upgrades are substantial, but each of them nudges the team in the right direction.

    Losses vs. the 2018-2019 years:
    – McDavid is going to start the season getting over an injury so they probably shouldn’t play hims as many minutes over the first couple of weeks
    – A reasonable fan should expect fewer minutes and fewer points for Draisatl and McDavid
    – I felt that Sekera was ripe to return partially to form, which would have been a huge help – though I understand the decision, I remain disappointed that they bought him out
    – blueliners don’t develop in a straight line, and I expect some regression for Nurse’s points
    – The Oilers didn’t suffer too many injuries in-season last year, and are due for more substantial man-games lost this upcoming season

    The Oilers were 14th of 15 Western Conference teams last year, and with the selection of Broberg, their first overall will not help them win games in 2019-2020 (unlike, say, the Ducks who picked one spot after).While the Oilers traded Lucic for Neal, that won’t likely make the team markedly better… it will just make future cap and Seattle draft management easier.Smith had a great playoffs but the regular season wasn’t amazing, and Talbot (based on age and the blueliners he’ll be playing behind in Calgary) seems more likely to have the rebound season.Kailer should stay in the AHL, and Jesse isn’t likely coming back.I don’t see one big thing that made the team better.

    Maybe the goaltenders make an amazing tandem and McDavid / Drai keep on putting up crazy numbers, but in terms of a reasonable expectation, I don’t see the Oilers ending up higher 3rd last in the west.This would average to 76 points over the last 4 seasons.

    As for Jesse, what a waste of a draft pick.I don’t know why he won’t play for the Oilers, but time to guess his success this season with Karpat.Karpat will play 60 games, and a few years ago, there were 2 30-goal scorers in the entire league, and only 1 in 2018-2019.24 goals would have been top-5 in the league last year.Jesse is a great talent, big, hopefully motivated, and moving back home.However, he’s coming off of double-hip surgery, though he scored in his first game.I suspect he gets better as the season wears on, and as crazy as this may sound, I’m betting 23 goals if he plays a full season.I have faith that Holland is savvy enough to not trade him until absolutely necessary (i.e., not rush into something before December 1st, since that’s the agent’s deadline, and not Holland’s).

    Hunter:Please put me down for 76 points for the Oilers 2019-2020 seasons, and 23 goals (he’s not getting traded before 2020 offseason)

    Excellent analysis.
    Colorado, Dallas, Arizona, Vancouver much improved.
    St. Louis won’t be as weak in the regular season.
    The rest about the same.

  120. Professor Q says:

    OILERS: 99 points, for Wayne Gretzky.

    J. P. : 21 goals, for Stan Mikita.

    HOWEVER

    With the Carolina talks heating up recently and Justin Williams “retiring by any other name” just now, the Puljujärvi trade might be imminent.

    So maybe 8-12 goals before that happens, within 1-3 months?

    Fine. 8, for Alex Ovechkin.

  121. hunter1909 says:

    Professor Q:
    OILERS: 99 points, for Wayne Gretzky.

    J. P. : 21 goals, for Stan Mikita.

    HOWEVER

    With the Carolina talks heating up recently and Justin Williams “retiring by any other name” just now, the Puljujärvi trade might be imminent.

    So maybe 8-12 goals before that happens, within 1-3 months?

    Fine. 8, for Alex Ovechkin.

    You are down for 99 points, and 21 goals.

    Hunter1909’s 2019-20 Death March™ employs the “Bridge of Death” method. Only the first prediction counts.

    ps: If you can talk a lawyer say like Original Pouzar to plead your case at the new upcoming planned Death March™ website, then please feel free to argue further.

  122. HT Joe says:

    hunter1909: If it’s okay with Lowetide and yourself, I’d like to stick this brilliant post on the Death March™ website; front and centre.

    You are being way too generous, but thank you. As far as I’m concerned, please feel free to copy and paste as you wish. Thank you so much for running the Death March (and a huge thank you to Lowetide for enabling this within the community you nurtured and built). 😀

    Thanks Harpers Hair.

  123. Yeti says:

    stephen sheps: Edit #2 – My PhD supervisor actually wrote a book called Gramsci is Dead. The book was about activism, anarchism and social movements. The fact that I ‘brought him back to life’ for a project on hockey has been a constant source of laughs between us for a couple of years now.

    Although Richard always claimed that he hated that title…

  124. stephen sheps says:

    Ryan: The ‘Hockey men’ in their cloistered NHL environment are drawing on a population largely with no additional selective forces. It’s surprising that it’s taken this long to look outside their ranks to gain a competitive advantage

    I completely agree. It’s shocking it has taken this long, but hockey seems to be much slower and more resistant to change than the other major sports, at least based on the research I’ve done. I wonder how much of it can actually be attributed to the closed loop of ex-players becoming coaches, management and media personalities (who are sometimes ex-players, coaches and management types). The recent culling at sportsnet is interesting as two of the ‘hockey men’ types were the most prominent names on the list.

  125. stephen sheps says:

    Yeti: Although Richard always claimed that he hated that title…

    That’s very true, he does hate that title. But it was a good read and I learned a lot from him, even though I’m doing completely different work than I did back then

  126. stephen sheps says:

    To everyone that has emailed, commented or otherwise expressed interest at all in my article today – thank you. I’m totally floored by the responses and kind words from so many of you. The project was inspired by the conversations that came from this place and in many ways the work belongs to this community as well. I’m forever grateful.

  127. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    JP:
    Which is the more important skill.
    Shooting the puck in open space in net elevation past the goalie.
    Or
    Passing the puck between players.

    I think both are very important.

    rickithebear:

    Fans let their opinion of a player be formed by flashy plays.
    Rather than real baseline result.

    I agree with this, I think.

    But what is “real baseline result”? You’re setting Chiasson’s baseline as the best season of his career. It’s a problem

    rickithebear:

    When it comes to high standard of base play.
    21 NSHG is fucking beautiful for 2.15M

    Why is it valuable to remove short handed goals?

  128. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The word I meant to use was “supplemented”.

    Yeah, something tells me a successful lawyer knows those two words. Unless SS is joking (I hope) he is falling into the typical academic smarty pants trap. I’ve worked with many of them.

  129. Glovjuice says:

    hunter1909: If it’s okay with Lowetide and yourself, I’d like to stick this brilliant post on the Death March™ website; front and centre.

    Agreed, an all time great post.

  130. Jethro Tull says:

    jp: I think both are very important.

    I agree with this, I think.

    But what is “real baseline result”? You’re setting Chiasson’s baseline as the best season of his career. It’s a problem

    Why is it valuable to remove short handed goals?

    I have exactly 0 shg scored against me in the NHL. Ricki, where’s my cheque?

  131. jp says:

    stephen sheps: I thought Belov had potential, yeah. But mostly I started doing the Belov Bonus because it sounded funny to me, and it opened things up for countless terrible “this is Anton and his other brother Anton” jokes that were in character with the cheesy Russian/80s TV references I was already making in the series.

    Just for you though, I’ll keep an eye on Rieder from time to time. Why not, right?

    I thought he had potential too, but it wasn’t to be. A good reminder for our expectations on Persson/Nygard/Haas. And I hadn’t realized the depth of Anton Belov’s importance to the weekly Yak, well done.

    As for Rieder, he sure did get a lot of our attention last summer. Makes sense as the ‘marque’ signing of the summer I guess. But yeah, post Rieder updates only if you’re feeling it. I’ll be checking periodically and will post updates on him and others now and again too.

    Congratulations on the paper too!! Looking forward to having a closer look very soon.

  132. Georgexs says:

    LT: (from Friday)

    “Is there a long list of successful offensive players who are poor five-on-five performers?”

    A long list? I’d guess no. Over their careers, successful offensive players have to be good 5v5 performers. 5v5 is too big a part of the game, too big a portion of the minutes that a forward plays. If he can’t consistently generate offense at 5v5, then he’s going to have a hard time accumulating enough total offense to rank among the “successful” performers. At least in the long term.

    In the short term? The 75th percentile for 5v5 P60 for forwards in the past 12 seasons has been in the 1.7 to 1.9 range. Roughly 140 forwards score above that rate each season. Do successful offensive players occasionally fall in that range, i.e., produce 5v5 offense that lags behind over 100 other forwards in a given season? Yes. Hall, Crosby, Ovechkin, Bergeron, Stamkos, Marchand, Malkin, Kessel, Backstrom, Seguin, Toews, Pavelski, Getzlaf… they all had blips, landed around the 75th percentile mark in a season and bounced back. (The list is longer than where I stopped, btw.)

    This touches on the noisy nature of 5v5 P60. It’s the weakest scoring metric to use when evaluating forwards, as the correlation numbers I’ll share in a bit will show.

    Ryan said on Friday that producing at 5v5 is the hardest aspect of the game. If that’s the case, what can we say about forwards who score in the top ranks at 5v5 in a given season, i.e., forwards who’ve managed to excel at the “hardest aspect of the game”? 5v5 P60 should identify the best, most successful offensive forwards, right? Here, then, are the top 30 forwards at 5v5 P60 from last season, among forwards who played at least 10 games. (If I included all forwards, regardless of GP, the top 5 on 5v5 P60 would be Ryan Poehling, Brendan Gaunce, Zac Dalpe, Dominic Toninato, and Adam Johnson.)

    Player, 5v5 P60

    Nikita Kucherov, 3.37
    Max Comtois, 3.33
    Sidney Crosby, 2.92
    Andrew Shaw, 2.9
    Mitchell Marner, 2.87
    John Tavares, 2.87
    Johnny Gaudreau, 2.84
    Connor McDavid, 2.82
    Patrick Kane, 2.8
    Max Domi, 2.8
    Artemi Panarin, 2.8
    Auston Matthews, 2.76
    Brayden Point, 2.75
    Patrice Bergeron, 2.69
    Steven Stamkos, 2.67
    Jake Guentzel, 2.67
    Tomas Tatar, 2.66
    Brett Connolly, 2.66
    Brad Marchand, 2.66
    Tomas Hertl, 2.61
    Timo Meier, 2.58
    Sean Monahan, 2.58
    Leon Draisaitl, 2.57
    Taylor Hall, 2.54
    Viktor Arvidsson, 2.52
    Paul Stastny, 2.52
    Andreas Johnsson, 2.49
    Alex Tuch, 2.48
    Matt Duchene, 2.47
    David Krejci, 2.47

    The list above is supposed to represent successful offensive performers, as measured by 5v5 P60. Let’s compare it to the list of the top 30 forwards as measured by Pts/GP, again for forwards who played at least 10 games last season:

    Player, Pts/GP

    Nikita Kucherov, 1.56
    Connor McDavid, 1.49
    Patrick Kane, 1.36
    Leon Draisaitl, 1.28
    Sidney Crosby, 1.27
    Brad Marchand, 1.27
    David Pastrnak, 1.23
    Patrice Bergeron, 1.22
    Nathan MacKinnon, 1.21
    Johnny Gaudreau, 1.21
    Steven Stamkos, 1.20
    Mikko Rantanen, 1.18
    Aleksander Barkov, 1.17
    Brayden Point, 1.16
    Mitchell Marner, 1.15
    Jonathan Huberdeau, 1.12
    Taylor Hall, 1.12
    Blake Wheeler, 1.11
    Artemi Panarin, 1.10
    Alex Ovechkin, 1.10
    Auston Matthews, 1.07
    John Tavares, 1.07
    Jack Eichel, 1.06
    Evgeni Malkin, 1.06
    Sean Monahan, 1.05
    Claude Giroux, 1.04
    Alexander Radulov, 1.03
    Gabriel Landeskog, 1.03
    Mark Scheifele, 1.02
    Sebastian Aho, 1.01

    Which list would you say is more exclusive, tougher to break in to? Which list is better represented by “successful offensive performers”? Which metric better aligns with your idea of highly skilled, offensive forwards?

    There are 16 names common to both lists, leaving 14 distinct names that are unique to each list, Which unique list of 14 would you bet on for future offensive performance?

    Let’s go back a season to see what would have happened if we bet on the players on the 5v5 P60 list who didn’t make the Pts/GP list. In 2017-18, the following forwards ranked in the top 30 on 5v5 P60 but didn’t rank in the top 30 on Pts/GP:

    Player, 17-18 5v5 P60, 18-19 5v5 P60

    Valentin Zykov, 3.34, 0.76
    Anthony Cirelli, 2.88, 1.69
    Evgenii Dadonov, 2.74, 2.31
    Yanni Gourde, 2.65, 2.08
    Matthew Peca, 2.53, 1.35
    Filip Forsberg, 2.53, 2.19
    Ryan Spooner, 2.5, 0.92
    William Karlsson, 2.49, 1.93
    Ty Rattie, 2.49, 1.16
    Jordan Eberle, 2.49, 1.41
    Eric Staal, 2.48, 1.68
    Thomas Vanek, 2.47, 1.87
    Jaden Schwartz, 2.46, 1.77
    Reilly Smith, 2.45, 1.91

    As you can see, none of these names ranked in the top 30 on 5v5 P60 in 18-19. The mean 5v5 P60 for this group in 18-19 was 1.65, compared to 2.61 the season before, a pretty strong regression to the mean. This gives you a sense of how problematic 5v5 P60 is for forecasting future performance. Players yo-yo in a way that makes you question whether the metric is doing a good job of capturing underlying skill: skill, where it exists, should show through in repeated measurements.

    The case against 5v5 P60 is much stronger than the examples I’ve given here. I’m hoping the examples get you thinking: a good, accurate metric shouldn’t run roughshod over your intuition and it shouldn’t produce such random results in consecutive measurements.

  133. YKOil says:

    Hunter:

    82 points
    22 goals for JP (no early trade)

    Sheps: well done sir!

  134. HT Joe says:

    Glovjuice: Agreed, an all time great post.

    Thanks Glovjuice… you’re too kind.

  135. Glovjuice says:

    Georgexs:
    LT: (from Friday)

    “Is there a long list of successful offensive players who are poor five-on-five performers?”

    A long list? I’d guess no. Over their careers, successful offensive players have to be good 5v5 performers. 5v5 is too big a part of the game, too big a portion of the minutes that a forward plays. If he can’t consistently generate offense at 5v5, then he’s going to have a hard time accumulating enough total offense to rank among the “successful” performers. At least in the long term.

    In the short term? The 75th percentile for 5v5 P60 for forwards in the past 12 seasons has been in the 1.7 to 1.9 range. Roughly 140 forwards score above that rate each season. Do successful offensive players occasionally fall in that range, i.e., produce 5v5 offense that lags behind over 100 other forwards in a given season? Yes. Hall, Crosby, Ovechkin, Bergeron, Stamkos, Marchand, Malkin, Kessel, Backstrom, Seguin, Toews, Pavelski, Getzlaf… they all had blips, landed around the 75th percentile mark in a season and bounced back. (The list is longer than where I stopped, btw.)

    This touches on the noisy nature of 5v5 P60. It’s the weakest scoring metric to use when evaluating forwards, as the correlation numbers I’ll share in a bit will show.

    Ryan said on Friday that producing at 5v5 is the hardest aspect of the game. If that’s the case, what can we say about forwards who score in the top ranks at 5v5 in a given season, i.e., forwards who’ve managed to excel at the “hardest aspect of the game”? 5v5 P60 should identify the best, most successful offensive forwards, right? Here, then, are the top 30 forwards at 5v5 P60 from last season, among forwards who played at least 10 games. (If I included all forwards, regardless of GP, the top 5 on 5v5 P60 would be Ryan Poehling, Brendan Gaunce, Zac Dalpe, Dominic Toninato, and Adam Johnson.)

    Player, 5v5 P60

    Nikita Kucherov, 3.37
    Max Comtois, 3.33
    Sidney Crosby, 2.92
    Andrew Shaw, 2.9
    Mitchell Marner, 2.87
    John Tavares, 2.87
    Johnny Gaudreau, 2.84
    Connor McDavid, 2.82
    Patrick Kane, 2.8
    Max Domi, 2.8
    Artemi Panarin, 2.8
    Auston Matthews, 2.76
    Brayden Point, 2.75
    Patrice Bergeron, 2.69
    Steven Stamkos, 2.67
    Jake Guentzel, 2.67
    Tomas Tatar, 2.66
    Brett Connolly, 2.66
    Brad Marchand, 2.66
    Tomas Hertl, 2.61
    Timo Meier, 2.58
    Sean Monahan, 2.58
    Leon Draisaitl, 2.57
    Taylor Hall, 2.54
    Viktor Arvidsson, 2.52
    Paul Stastny, 2.52
    Andreas Johnsson, 2.49
    Alex Tuch, 2.48
    Matt Duchene, 2.47
    David Krejci, 2.47

    The list above is supposed to represent successful offensive performers, as measured by 5v5 P60. Let’s compare it to the list of the top 30 forwards as measured by Pts/GP, again for forwards who played at least 10 games last season:

    Player, Pts/GP

    Nikita Kucherov, 1.56
    Connor McDavid, 1.49
    Patrick Kane, 1.36
    Leon Draisaitl, 1.28
    Sidney Crosby, 1.27
    Brad Marchand, 1.27
    David Pastrnak, 1.23
    Patrice Bergeron, 1.22
    Nathan MacKinnon, 1.21
    Johnny Gaudreau, 1.21
    Steven Stamkos, 1.20
    Mikko Rantanen, 1.18
    Aleksander Barkov, 1.17
    Brayden Point, 1.16
    Mitchell Marner, 1.15
    Jonathan Huberdeau, 1.12
    Taylor Hall, 1.12
    Blake Wheeler, 1.11
    Artemi Panarin, 1.10
    Alex Ovechkin, 1.10
    Auston Matthews, 1.07
    John Tavares, 1.07
    Jack Eichel, 1.06
    Evgeni Malkin, 1.06
    Sean Monahan, 1.05
    Claude Giroux, 1.04
    Alexander Radulov, 1.03
    Gabriel Landeskog, 1.03
    Mark Scheifele, 1.02
    Sebastian Aho, 1.01

    Which list would you say is more exclusive, tougher to break in to? Which list is better represented by “successful offensive performers”? Which metric better aligns with your idea of highly skilled, offensive forwards?

    There are 16 names common to both lists, leaving 14 distinct names that are unique to each list, Which unique list of 14 would you bet on for future offensive performance?

    Let’s go back a season to see what would have happened if we bet on the players on the 5v5 P60 list who didn’t make the Pts/GP list. In 2017-18, the following forwards ranked in the top 30 on 5v5 P60 but didn’t rank in the top 30 on Pts/GP:

    Player, 17-18 5v5 P60, 18-19 5v5 P60

    Valentin Zykov, 3.34, 0.76
    Anthony Cirelli, 2.88, 1.69
    Evgenii Dadonov, 2.74, 2.31
    Yanni Gourde, 2.65, 2.08
    Matthew Peca, 2.53, 1.35
    Filip Forsberg, 2.53, 2.19
    Ryan Spooner, 2.5, 0.92
    William Karlsson, 2.49, 1.93
    Ty Rattie, 2.49, 1.16
    Jordan Eberle, 2.49, 1.41
    Eric Staal, 2.48, 1.68
    Thomas Vanek, 2.47, 1.87
    Jaden Schwartz, 2.46, 1.77
    Reilly Smith, 2.45, 1.91

    As you can see, none of these names ranked in the top 30 on 5v5 P60 in 18-19. The mean 5v5 P60 for this group in 18-19 was 1.65, compared to 2.61 the season before, a pretty strong regression to the mean. This gives you a sense of how problematic 5v5 P60 is for forecasting future performance. Players yo-yo in a way that makes you question whether the metric is doing a good job of capturing underlying skill: skill, where it exists, should show through in repeated measurements.

    The case against 5v5 P60 is much stronger than the examples I’ve given here. I’m hoping the examples get you thinking: a good, accurate metric shouldn’t run roughshod over your intuition and it shouldn’t produce such random results in consecutive measurements.

    The more we dig into these various stats the more I think +/- (at lest vis-a-vis teammates) is not as bad as we all are thinking.

  136. Glovjuice says:

    HT Joe: Thanks Glovjuice… you’re too kind.

    You bet. Good is good. 👃

  137. YKOil says:

    If Washington is looking to trade look for them to make one of Eller or Kempny available.

    Everyone else is either:

    a. untouchable
    b. not worth it to trade (salary is already in the $1 million range)
    c. just signed this year (which means the decision is fresh)

    Wildcard would be Gudas (last year of deal) and I would be interested in him.

    I would, because it is me, ask after Jensen. Benning with a little salary retained ($200k?), maybe add a later-round pick.

  138. JimmyV1965 says:

    stephen sheps:
    *****WARNING: SPAM*****

    Some of you know this already, especially if we’re connected on that twitter machine I rarely use, but over the last couple of years I’ve been researching and writing on hockey analytics and the erosion of evidence-based inquiry in the MSM. I interviewed a bunch of analytics folks (actual content creators) from around these parts and across Canada and the US to find out what they do, why they do it and how they’ve managed to push back against the ‘hockey men’ that seem to dominate the conversation in mainstream sport media.

    After months of research and writing, going through the usual peer-review process and a round of revisions, I’m proud to announce that my article “Corsi, Fenwick and Gramsci: How bloggers and advanced analytics are changing the National Hockey League” has been published in the International Review for the Sociology of Sport.

    If you have access to a university library that has the right subscription, you can find it here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1012690219869192

    If you would like a copy, I’m happy to email you the pdf. feel free to drop me a line at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com. I tried my best to do right by this little community of ours, since this paper wouldn’t have happened without the encouragement of our host and a little help from a few folks that pop in here from time to time.

    *****END SPAM*****

    Very, very impressive. Congrats!!

  139. BONE207 says:

    Very good conversation today, Gang.

    Woodguy…great article. I have a good feeling about Benson. This franchise could use some good trending arrows.

    Sheps…interesting & informative.

    Lowetide…thanks for your daily submission. Takes the sting out of airports.

    Hunter!!!
    Good to have your enthusiastic approach back in our crazy community. I’ll turn the tables then & start the year pessitimistically. Like HT Joe, too many things have to find its mark to get this Disorganization into playoff contention. The Chia era proved that.
    79 points Oilers
    16 goals Poolparty

  140. Jaxon says:

    Georgexs:
    LT: (from Friday)

    “Is there a long list of successful offensive players who are poor five-on-five performers?”

    A long list? I’d guess no. Over their careers, successful offensive players have to be good 5v5 performers. 5v5 is too big a part of the game, too big a portion of the minutes that a forward plays. If he can’t consistently generate offense at 5v5, then he’s going to have a hard time accumulating enough total offense to rank among the “successful” performers. At least in the long term.

    In the short term? The 75th percentile for 5v5 P60 for forwards in the past 12 seasons has been in the 1.7 to 1.9 range. Roughly 140 forwards score above that rate each season. Do successful offensive players occasionally fall in that range, i.e., produce 5v5 offense that lags behind over 100 other forwards in a given season? Yes. Hall, Crosby, Ovechkin, Bergeron, Stamkos, Marchand, Malkin, Kessel, Backstrom, Seguin, Toews, Pavelski, Getzlaf… they all had blips, landed around the 75th percentile mark in a season and bounced back. (The list is longer than where I stopped, btw.)

    This touches on the noisy nature of 5v5 P60. It’s the weakest scoring metric to use when evaluating forwards, as the correlation numbers I’ll share in a bit will show.

    Ryan said on Friday that producing at 5v5 is the hardest aspect of the game. If that’s the case, what can we say about forwards who score in the top ranks at 5v5 in a given season, i.e., forwards who’ve managed to excel at the “hardest aspect of the game”? 5v5 P60 should identify the best, most successful offensive forwards, right? Here, then, are the top 30 forwards at 5v5 P60 from last season, among forwards who played at least 10 games. (If I included all forwards, regardless of GP, the top 5 on 5v5 P60 would be Ryan Poehling, Brendan Gaunce, Zac Dalpe, Dominic Toninato, and Adam Johnson.)

    Player, 5v5 P60

    Nikita Kucherov, 3.37
    Max Comtois, 3.33
    Sidney Crosby, 2.92
    Andrew Shaw, 2.9
    Mitchell Marner, 2.87
    John Tavares, 2.87
    Johnny Gaudreau, 2.84
    Connor McDavid, 2.82
    Patrick Kane, 2.8
    Max Domi, 2.8
    Artemi Panarin, 2.8
    Auston Matthews, 2.76
    Brayden Point, 2.75
    Patrice Bergeron, 2.69
    Steven Stamkos, 2.67
    Jake Guentzel, 2.67
    Tomas Tatar, 2.66
    Brett Connolly, 2.66
    Brad Marchand, 2.66
    Tomas Hertl, 2.61
    Timo Meier, 2.58
    Sean Monahan, 2.58
    Leon Draisaitl, 2.57
    Taylor Hall, 2.54
    Viktor Arvidsson, 2.52
    Paul Stastny, 2.52
    Andreas Johnsson, 2.49
    Alex Tuch, 2.48
    Matt Duchene, 2.47
    David Krejci, 2.47

    The list above is supposed to represent successful offensive performers, as measured by 5v5 P60. Let’s compare it to the list of the top 30 forwards as measured by Pts/GP, again for forwards who played at least 10 games last season:

    Player, Pts/GP

    Nikita Kucherov, 1.56
    Connor McDavid, 1.49
    Patrick Kane, 1.36
    Leon Draisaitl, 1.28
    Sidney Crosby, 1.27
    Brad Marchand, 1.27
    David Pastrnak, 1.23
    Patrice Bergeron, 1.22
    Nathan MacKinnon, 1.21
    Johnny Gaudreau, 1.21
    Steven Stamkos, 1.20
    Mikko Rantanen, 1.18
    Aleksander Barkov, 1.17
    Brayden Point, 1.16
    Mitchell Marner, 1.15
    Jonathan Huberdeau, 1.12
    Taylor Hall, 1.12
    Blake Wheeler, 1.11
    Artemi Panarin, 1.10
    Alex Ovechkin, 1.10
    Auston Matthews, 1.07
    John Tavares, 1.07
    Jack Eichel, 1.06
    Evgeni Malkin, 1.06
    Sean Monahan, 1.05
    Claude Giroux, 1.04
    Alexander Radulov, 1.03
    Gabriel Landeskog, 1.03
    Mark Scheifele, 1.02
    Sebastian Aho, 1.01

    Which list would you say is more exclusive, tougher to break in to? Which list is better represented by “successful offensive performers”? Which metric better aligns with your idea of highly skilled, offensive forwards?

    There are 16 names common to both lists, leaving 14 distinct names that are unique to each list, Which unique list of 14 would you bet on for future offensive performance?

    Let’s go back a season to see what would have happened if we bet on the players on the 5v5 P60 list who didn’t make the Pts/GP list. In 2017-18, the following forwards ranked in the top 30 on 5v5 P60 but didn’t rank in the top 30 on Pts/GP:

    Player, 17-18 5v5 P60, 18-19 5v5 P60

    Valentin Zykov, 3.34, 0.76
    Anthony Cirelli, 2.88, 1.69
    Evgenii Dadonov, 2.74, 2.31
    Yanni Gourde, 2.65, 2.08
    Matthew Peca, 2.53, 1.35
    Filip Forsberg, 2.53, 2.19
    Ryan Spooner, 2.5, 0.92
    William Karlsson, 2.49, 1.93
    Ty Rattie, 2.49, 1.16
    Jordan Eberle, 2.49, 1.41
    Eric Staal, 2.48, 1.68
    Thomas Vanek, 2.47, 1.87
    Jaden Schwartz, 2.46, 1.77
    Reilly Smith, 2.45, 1.91

    As you can see, none of these names ranked in the top 30 on 5v5 P60 in 18-19. The mean 5v5 P60 for this group in 18-19 was 1.65, compared to 2.61 the season before, a pretty strong regression to the mean. This gives you a sense of how problematic 5v5 P60 is for forecasting future performance. Players yo-yo in a way that makes you question whether the metric is doing a good job of capturing underlying skill: skill, where it exists, should show through in repeated measurements.

    The case against 5v5 P60 is much stronger than the examples I’ve given here. I’m hoping the examples get you thinking: a good, accurate metric shouldn’t run roughshod over your intuition and it shouldn’t produce such random results in consecutive measurements.

    The issue I see with your argument isn’t a 5v5 vs All situations issue, it’s a per game vs per minute issue as all minutes aren’t created equally.

    Try that list with 5v5 pts/gp and you’ll likely have a better picture of the best players than all situations pts/gp.

    If you want to go to 5v5 pts/60 you need to separate the players who play against top competition from those who don’t via their 5v5 TOI. If you draw a line in the sand for forwards at approximately 12.5 minutes for top 6 forwards, or 13.72 for top line forwards. Anyone who plays less 5v5 minutes than that should not be included in your list of elite players. That will give you a list similar to the 5v5 pts/GP list.

    Your argument changed two factors and argued that one was at fault (5v5 vs all situations) when I believe it was the other at fault ( per game vs per minute).

  141. Jaxon says:

    Here is the top 30 5v5 Pts/GP

    Player 5v5 Pts/GP
    Nikita Kucherov 0.8414634146
    Connor McDavid 0.8205128205
    Patrick Kane 0.8148148148
    Sidney Crosby 0.7721518987
    Artemi Panarin 0.746835443
    John Tavares 0.7317073171
    Johnny Gaudreau 0.7317073171
    Leon Draisaitl 0.7195121951
    Mitchell Marner 0.7073170732
    Jake Guentzel 0.6951219512
    Auston Matthews 0.6911764706
    Brayden Point 0.6582278481
    Max Domi 0.6463414634
    Taylor Hall 0.6363636364
    Sean Monahan 0.6282051282
    Matt Duchene 0.6164383562
    Jack Eichel 0.6103896104
    Claude Giroux 0.6097560976
    Brad Marchand 0.6075949367
    Alex Ovechkin 0.6049382716
    Timo Meier 0.6025641026
    Paul Stastny 0.6
    David Pastrnak 0.5909090909
    Evgeni Malkin 0.5882352941
    Viktor Arvidsson 0.5862068966
    Aleksander Barkov 0.5853658537
    Mark Stone 0.5844155844
    David Krejci 0.5802469136
    Jonathan Huberdeau 0.5731707317
    Nathan MacKinnon 0.5731707317

    Here is top 30 5v5 Pts/60 of players with Top line minutes thus facing top competition:
    Player 5v5 Pts/60
    Nikita Kucherov 3.365899267
    Sidney Crosby 2.920368105
    Mitchell Marner 2.869945295
    John Tavares 2.868906893
    Johnny Gaudreau 2.844388259
    Connor McDavid 2.818038381
    Max Domi 2.804109166
    Artemi Panarin 2.799377916
    Patrick Kane 2.798850304
    Auston Matthews 2.76434453
    Brayden Point 2.749787009
    Jake Guentzel 2.670518877
    Brad Marchand 2.657071686
    Timo Meier 2.584705631
    Sean Monahan 2.579513051
    Leon Draisaitl 2.569033709
    Taylor Hall 2.536997886
    Viktor Arvidsson 2.522723057
    Paul Stastny 2.519655647
    David Krejci 2.472708142
    David Pastrnak 2.468962121
    Evgeny Kuznetsov 2.46555706
    Matt Duchene 2.465078061
    Evgeni Malkin 2.463475553
    Jonathan Huberdeau 2.446076447
    Claude Giroux 2.437439064
    Jack Eichel 2.427407322
    Alex Ovechkin 2.390567828
    Evgenii Dadonov 2.31055357
    Aleksander Barkov 2.300901453

    I’d take these lists over straight all situations pts/gp as a guide for best player.
    They line up with intuition quite well.

    One thing of note on this list is that it shows how McDavid, Patrick Kane and Draisaitl are probably overworked and their production per minute probably decreased because of it.

  142. stephen sheps says:

    Glovjuice,

    Of course I used the “I’m not sure that means what you think it means” line as a joke, calling back to the old timey poster “Steve Smith” who used it often back in the day. OP is gonna do his thing, I’ll do mine. We’ll continue rarely engaging with each other and call it a day.

  143. ArmchairGM says:

    If Puljujarvi has a good season, would Kaprizov be a good trade target? His KHL contract ends April 30, 2020. Thoughts?

  144. Ryan says:

    Georgexs,

    There’s a lot to unpack here and I have to go to work. 🙂

    First, my comment about producing at 5v5 being the hardest aspect of the game is something I’ve gleaned from reading this blog. While I’m a believer of that concept, it was never my idea.

    You’ve made a point in a sense. Points per 60 can definitely look silly if you’re using an arbitrary 10 game cut off. A guy like Zykov can go on a run and score 7 points in 10 games in limited minutes, but you’re never going to see a Zykov play and tear the cover off the ball for 22 minutes per game during a 10 game stretch. He’s never going to see the ice that much nor be able to play those minutes effectively.

    Clearly, there’s a requisite sample size required if you’re using points/60. It’s also important to look at that scoring rate in the context of other seasons. I’ll concede to you that points/60 is a terrible stat over a small sample size. I’ll also concede that there’s something to be said of producing at a point rate per 60 for 10 minutes per game vs 17 minutes plus.

    On the same token, points per game can suffer from its own issues. On poor teams with lack of depth, players like Chiasson can play up the lineup both at evens on the first power-play units thereby inflating their minutes at evens at PP and inflating their points per game.

    The best players in the game play the most minutes on their teams and get the most powerplay minutes. That’s going to show up in points / game. It also gives a large sample size which I’ve acknowledged.

    In my previous comment, I mentioned something to the point of needing to separate out the ‘fluke years’ which at first glance, you’ve got a long list of players with “fluke years” reflected in their points/60 from 10 game or more samples.

    From a forecasting perspective, given that points/game also incorporates the valuable toi/g info while points/60 does not, I can agree that it’s a more useful stat.

    Gotta run.

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