Hurry Sundown

Back in the fun days (2013) today would see Oilers fans get caught totally off guard (Oilers sign Omark! or Oilers sign Petrell!) but one suspects we’ll see a more predictable training camp roster.

Surprises might include a center like Riley Sheahan and someone mentioned Patrick Marleau yesterday—that would be a surprise.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, take advantage of the incredible Labor Day Weekend offer here!

  • **New Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • New Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

TRAINING CAMP ROSTER (A GUESS)

I have added a few ‘possible’ training camp additions based on need.

GOALIES (7)

1 Mikko Koskinen, 31. Delivered in October and November (.924) but was overworked and spent by season’s end. One of Dave Tippett’s assignments will be to have a rested Koskinen starting games.

2 Mike Smith, 37. Smith started slowly but had a .912 save percentage after the All-Star break. His playoff performance was also solid but at his age Smith is a risky bet.

3 Shane Starrett, 25. Posted a great season in Bakersfield (.916 save percentage) and is the first recall option entering camp.

4 Dylan Wells, 21. Played 12 AHL games (.909 save percentage) and spent the rest of the year in the ECHL.

5 Stuart Skinner, 20. 41 ECHL (.903) games made him the Wichita starter, with just six AHL games (.879) during the regular year. Skinner caught fire for Bakersfield in the playoffs, with a .918 save percentage in four games.

6 Olivier Rodrigue, 19. 48 games in the QMJHL (.902) and he’s a consistent goaltender who may have the best pedigree among the young group. Headed back to junior for his final year.

LEFT DEFENSE (8)

1 Oscar Klefbom, 26. I’m interesting in seeing how coach Dave Tippett handles him. Early word has him on the second pair.

2 Darnell Nurse, 24. He might get a push under Tippett, possibly forming a shutdown pairing with Adam Larsson.

3 Kris Russell, 32. Oilers apparently plan on moving him to LD, but he’ll be in the mix if the team can’t find a better option. On the LH side he’s a third pairing option.

4 Caleb Jones, 22. One of the keys to this season for Edmonton will come in getting as many youngsters into the league and adjust by April. Jones is a quality candidate, combining speed and skill in an inexpensive package.

5 William Lagesson, 23. Although he’s a little under the radar, the intel on Lagesson is that he’s bona fide and could push for an NHL job as early as training camp.

6 Brandon Manning, 29. He’ll come to camp as a veteran option but he’ll have a difficult time making the roster as anything other than 7D, and even that is a stretch.

7 Dmitri Samorukov, 20. A complete range of skills and he could pass several on this list in a hurry.

8 Keegan Lowe, 26. Veteran AHL defender who has been helping the development of young Condors blue.

RIGHT DEFENSE (0)

1 Adam Larsson, 26. Shutdown defender had a five-on-five shot share of 48.62 percent last year and a goal share of 38.69 percent. Regression should be expected.

2 Joel Persson, 25. He is an excellent passer and an older player. I think talk of moving Klefbom to the second pair may coincide with a push for Persson early days. He has a clear view of a roster spot.

3 Matt Benning, 25. Benning may be in his final season in the organization but it’s a good bet he’ll be on the team opening night. Oilers won’t turn over too much of the defensive roster so trade deadline might be the time.

4 Evan Bouchard, 19. Bouchard has outstanding vision and passing skills, perfect skills for the current Oilers. I can see him making the team in any month of the season.

5 Ethan Bear, 22. He was effective when healthy, and has NHL experience. Bear is also facing more competition than he did a year ago and will have to make an immediate impact in preseason.

6 Logan Day, 24. I don’t know where he’s heading but last season in Bakersfield was impressive. We can disregard him but this organization has brought along both Jordan Oesterle and Brad Hunt in recent seasons. Day is a talent.

CENTER

1 Connor McDavid, 22. I’m expecting a career season. During his young career, he has been phenomenal (per 82gp: 37-69-106) and he is entering his prime. Stand back!

2 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 26. Nuge is the George Harrison of the Oilers, brilliant and original but in the shadows much of the time. I can’t wait until we get to his ‘here comes the sun’ years.

3 Riley Sheahan, 27. I wrote about him recently (here) and he could help in the faceoff circle and on the PK. Part of me believes if this was going to happen we’d already be there.

 4 Jujhar Khaira, 25. I have a feeling Khaira will emerge as an important defensive player for Dave Tippett. Not sure it’ll be at center.

5 Cooper Marody, 22. I have him making the big club for good in mid-season and posting some crooked numbers offensively. He could help solve a major problem in the middle.

6 Gaetan Haas, 27. RH center who has speed and two-way skills, there is a gap in competition for this player and he’ll need time to adjust.

7 Colby Cave, 24. He has some utility but lacks any one strength to recommend him. He won 52 percent of his faceoffs.

8 Kyle Brodziak, 35. He had a tough year, fell off demonstrably from previous level of performance. He was clearly not at full health, and it’s possible he lands on LTIR.

9 Brad Malone, 30. Malone serves as insurance at the position and has played 14 percent of his time with the Oilers in the NHL. If he’s recalled, something unplanned has happened.

10 Cameron Hebig, 22. Hebig started last season as part of the Kid Line and scored well. He got lost in the flood but might find himself in a feature role again this season.

11 Ryan McLeod, 19. I don’t think he’ll see the NHL this season and am interested to see how much he brings offensively in the minors.

LEFT WING

1 Leon Draisaitl, 23. The big man scored 50 goals last season, a feat that puts him on a higher level. Don’t expect another 50, but he is an impact player in the NHL.

2 Patrick Marleau, 39. He turns 40 in September and I don’t think Marleau will sign in Edmonton. Still, it’s an intriguing thought. He played 82 games a season and popped 16 goals a year ago.

3 James Neal, 31. I think Ken Holland made out like a bandit with this trade, even if it doesn’t work out. I think 16 goals is a reasonable expectation.

4 Markus Granlund, 26. He’ll be in the Rieder role, PK man who can score some, check some and maybe move from pivot as required. It’s a good choice, although you worry he lands more of a feature role than warranted.

5 Joakim Nygard, 26. He has speed, giving Nygard a major advantage over other hopefuls. His SHL scoring pace (he was among the league leaders) shouldn’t be overlooked.

6 Tyler Benson, 21. I think he has a real chance to make the team. My RE brings him up mid-season but there’s a massive opportunity here and Benson is a sublime passer.

7 Tomas Jurco, 26. He has had some success (per 82gp: 9-11-20) in the NHL but it has been four years since he was a regular in the league.

8 Joe Gambardella, 25. He scored 29 goals in the AHL last season and showed some ability in an NHL recall. His skill set dovetails nicely to a depth role as a forechecker and PK man who can score a little.

9 Nolan Vesey, 24. He hasn’t shown a lot.

RIGHT WING

1 Zack Kassian, 28. Per 82gp as an Oiler, he scored 10-14-24, which is excellent production for a role player. Kassian will get time on a feature line but it’s an area of weakness for the team. Tippett needs to find more skill.

2 Thomas Vanek, 35. He’s old but he’s skilled and the Oilers have a need he can fill. I expect Vanek will sign out east but I listed him because it makes so much sense.

3 Alex Chiasson, 28. Over the last three seasons, he output per 82gp is 16-15-31, and eight of his 22 goals a year ago came on the power play. He’s a bit of an odd match in this forward group (counting on 22 goals again is unwise). That said, I think some of the verbal on his signing is over the top. Has a lot of the same issue as Kassian, and I expect we might see one of these two wingers dealt.

4 Josh Archibald, 26. One of my favourite offseason additions, Archibald can PK, score goals, skate and play a physical style. No real negatives. 

5 Sam Gagner, 30. One of the most interesting players on the roster, over the last three seasons he is delivering (per 82gp) 15-26-41. He could play on all four lines during the year. 

6 Josh Currie, 26. I think he could slide into a 13-14F job easily this training camp, so have ranked him here. No matter if Currie gets sent out, it’s better than even money that he plays in the NHL this coming season. 

7 Kailer Yamamoto, 20. I don’t think there’s much chance of Yamamoto making the roster out of camp, my suspicion is the organization wanted to see more a year ago. Wrist injury aside, he’ll have to show he can dominate the AHL before recall. I believe he could score 30 in the AHL over a full season.

8 Patrick Russell, 26. The more I look into his minor league season, the more impressive it looks. He’s a depth winger at the NHL level, but could see the NHL again this season. 

9 Kirill Maksimov, 20. I don’t see a path for him to make the opening night lineup, but a dominant first half in the AHL could see him recalled. He’s a perfect fit for a gigantic need.

10 Raphael Lavoie, 18. His skills are a perfect match for team needs, he is similar to Maksimov (and Evan Bouchard) in this way. He’ll be a player to watch this season.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

173 Responses to "Hurry Sundown"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I get home from the gym and turn the game on – 5 seconds later, Brogerg makes a nice stretch pass up the middle.Play is broken up, and goes the other way – rush down Berglund’s side, a weak backhand from the outside is taken and the goalie Koskinen’s it – B an B are -1 with no culpability.

    Skelefftea all over Grenoble in the first. Saw the last 12 minutes and the only time Grenoble touched the puck was the weak goal mentioned above. Lots of pressure, shots and PP time but just couldn’t convert.

    Broberg with some PP2 time in the period. Looked OK but didn’t stand out.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Don’t imagine that Marleau is interested in playing in Edmonton unless he gets term which is a non-starter.

    At this point, Sheehan should likely be a PTO as opposed to a contract.

    Yes, the contract would be no risk as it would by “fully buryable” but, with so many bottom 6 options is it smart to commit another contract? I’ve got to think he’s a better option than Haas but there are only so many contract spots available.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    We all know how down I’ve been on Koskinen – my memory and eye test remembers his quite poor except for the couple hot stretches but the numbers some have posted over the summer indicate that may he did do somewhere between OK and not bad when not over-worked.

    I’m cautiously optimistic on the goaltending tandem which is likely just pre-season excitement considering how down I have been on Koskinen and how Smith was not a goalie near the top of my list.

    Go over-30 goalies!!!!!

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see the Nurse/Larsson and Klefbom/Benning pairs as more of a 1A/1B ala 2016/17 (Klef/Larsson and Sekera/Russell) than a 1st and 2nd pairing. Both will see 22-24 minutes per night.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    “5 William Lagesson, 23. Although he’s a little under the radar, the intel on Lagesson is that he’s bona fide and could push for an NHL job as early as training camp”

    Says who? What intel? Ha!

    The above statement is true to me – Love me some WIllie and can’t wait until he gets his chance.

    With Russell the incumbent 3LW until passed by youth in the first 8 weeks (presumably), Willie will likely have to lanquish with Bear (or Persson) on the top pair in the Bake. He’ll get his chance.

    Will Holland be able to move Russell for the $4M in cap space we need next year in November if he’s passed by youth? Press boxing him MAY be best for the current team if he is passed by youth but, if he’s in and out of the lineup this year, how can there be a clean disposition for next season?

    Will Holland and Tippett be on the same page with this player?

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Very excited to see how Samorukov adjusts to pro hockey.

    I see him start as 3LD with Logan Day as 3RD.

    Expectation is for him to move up the depth chart quite quickly. Some predict/think NHL time is in the future this season and, yes, he has been nearly as impressive as Bouchard and not that much younger.

    Truth be told, its a tough jump from the CHL to the NHL for d-men.

    Maybe Sammy can be ready sometime in the 2019/20 season but I would call that exceeding expectations.

    Go Sammy!

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really think that Larsson’s struggles last year were mostly mental and dealing with his dad’s sudden death. I have nothing legit to back that up except for the fact that it was a serious off-year and he’s at an age where he’s just hitting his prime for his type of d-man.

    I expect a much better year from Larsson, and I think a Nurse/Larsson pairing can be just as effective as they were in 2017/18 if they have some nice cover with a solid 1B pairing led by Klefbom.

    If the top of D is healthy, I really think they could be solid and, with youth pushing at the bottom, the defence may just be a strength starting somewhere between 4-24 months from now.

    Klef, Larsson, Nurse – the current core – all still on the upswing. Larsson about to enter his prime and the other two just a bit behind now at 300 games.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Gully last week, Persson is essentially on the team. Gully acknowledged an “adjustment period” – I don’t think that means AHL time, unless required – i guess we’ll find out soon enough.

    Persson being able to handle 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes is a key to the season. It fills the right side, prior to injury and it provides legit cover for Bouchard for 3RD and the PP.

    I think Persson is fighting with Bear for that spot and has the upper hand.

    Russell/Jones/Lagesson fighting on the left side.

    The issue is we don’t really want any of Jones/Lagesson/Persson in the pressbox and Russell is unlikely to be there on October 2.

  9. silasbengtsson says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Very excited to see how Samorukov adjusts to pro hockey.

    I see him start as 3LD with Logan Day as 3RD.

    Expectation is for him to move up the depth chart quite quickly. Some predict/think NHL time is in the future this season and, yes, he has been nearly as impressive as Bouchard and not that much younger.

    Truth be told, its a tough jump from the CHL to the NHL for d-men.

    Maybe Sammy can be ready sometime in the 2019/20 season but I would call that exceeding expectations.

    Go Sammy!

    I think it’s wise for some to temper their expectations of Samy. He’s an excellent prospect who has a very full toolkit, but I think we’ve seen this story enough times. Dial back any hopes of the NHL and even of moving up the AHL batting order too quickly. Something like Jones’ 1st pro season is what we should expect and- in my opinion- be happy with.

  10. ancientcanuck says:

    Here is a great link to the skelleftea grenoble match. The second period just started.

    http://www.hockeyhebdo.com/news-chl–16h-skelleftea-aik—grenoble-en-direct–video-,26879.html

  11. Oil2Oilers says:

    Guess at opening night forward line up;

    Draistail McDavid Neal
    Nygard Nuge Gagner
    Garland Haas Chiason
    Khaira Cave Kassian

    Speed on every line, old highly paid pro’s especially ones with history with the new coach getting the push up the line up. I also don’t discount Gagner as 3C, as Oilers fans we remember the young man having 1 years experience 5 times, Tippet knows a different player. Multiple players on each line with Centre/Face-off experience.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree that Khaira will be an important player for Tippett – from Tippett’s mouth, they’ve spoken quite a bit this off-season. He’s in the conversation for 3C but I agree with LT that its an unlikely landing spot.

    I think Khaira will play solid minutes and get a bit PK push.

    Khaira has speed, size and enough skill. He can be an impact player in the bottom or maybe middle six as he started to show one season ago (shooting percentage warning on his goal total).

    Last year was disappointing for JJ but it was mostly injuries – he just never got traction.

    I look for Khaira and Benson to emerge on that left side this year.

  13. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thank for your updates on the Champions League game.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson at 2LW and/or Marody at 3C ON MERIT would be just huge for the depth chart.

  15. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “5 William Lagesson, 23. Although he’s a little under the radar, the intel on Lagesson is that he’s bona fide and could push for an NHL job as early as training camp”

    Says who?What intel?Ha!

    Lagesson’s first AHL season was quality, his even strength goal differential as an AHL rookie was very strong. I know you’ve trumpeted him but that doesn’t really move the needle. “Saw him good” can fool you. This blog focuses on numbers and the ‘intel’ is strong on him. No guarantees mind and I hope for your sake he makes it. NHL defense is a tough tough job.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson is a superb passer and plays LW. James Neal is a shooter who prefers right wing with a left shot center:

    Benson/Nuge/Neal

    Two question marks on the wings and neither are great skaters but that is two really smart hockey players in Benson and Nuge, both hard workers.

    It could work!

  17. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Benson is a superb passer and plays LW. James Neal is a shooter who prefers right wing with a left shot center:

    Benson/Nuge/Neal

    Two question marks on the wings and neither are great skaters but that is two really smart hockey players in Benson and Nuge, both hard workers.

    It could work!

    I also can’t wait for a few seasons down the road.

    Lavoie on the RW, Benson on the LW. Nuge or McLeod as the C?

  18. silasbengtsson says:

    Professor Q: I also can’t wait for a few seasons down the road.

    Lavoie on the RW, Benson on the LW. Nuge or McLeod as the C?

    No way Benson and Lavoie will be on the 4th line 😉

  19. digger50 says:

    Sekera comes back from his conditioning stint in Bakersfield. He could talk about anyone or not say anything at all. Instead it seems he goes out of his way to mention Lagesson and how he is NHL ready. That a fine endorsement.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Watched some of the second period, pretty sloppy game.

  21. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    Oil2Oilers,

    My guess;

    Leon – 97 – Kass
    Nygard – Nuge — Neal
    Granlund – Haas – Chiasson
    Khaira – Cave – Archibald

    At least to start the season. With their “compete level” I can see Gambardella and Russell possibly making the team as well.

    On the outside looking in: Gagner and Jurco.

    I think, no matter how good they look, all of Benson, Yamamoto and Marody start the season in Bakersfield. That’s just how Holland rolls. I expect Jones to be sent down for the same reason.

    Haas may be a huge wildcard, but I expect him to show well, at least in the early going. Nygard as well. Persson worries me the most, though, no real good back-up plan if he struggles (how does Lovejoy on a PTO float yer boats?)

    This is definitely the most interesting start to a season I’ve seen in eons. Too bad there is such a dearth of proven depth.

  22. digger50 says:

    Players like Gambardella and Currie seem to just work hard, learn and adapt at every level. Thier exposure to nhl level last year will fuel them this year. Gambardellas 29 goals is nothing to sneeze at.

    Earlier I felt Gambardella would secure his position on the fourth line before someone like Marodyl or Benson secures a second line spot. Different jobs as we say. But now it turns out there is much more competition to secure a fourth line spot than there is for a top six role!

  23. Johnny skid says:

    OriginalPouzar: a weak backhand from the outside is taken and the goalie Koskinen’s it –

    real classy ……

  24. J-Bo says:

    Is Safin injured or was he forgotten LT? I was thinking he would be at training camp.

  25. Ryan says:

    I think I found a picture of Marleau.

    https://images.app.goo.gl/N1TW9J7x8xPzAZSQ7

    Dude hasn’t missed a game in over a decade.

    In 20 years, the most he missed in a single season was 8 games. It was his rookie season, so I’m not even sure it was due to injury.

    I’m pretty sure he’s not human.

  26. digger50 says:

    I believe we really really need Holland to pull of a big trade. He has Jesse to dangle and can always add a pick or a prospect. He is waiting for a top 6 player to be squeezed out of a cap team.

    We really need a younge, proven, Fast, top six winger.

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    Marlow and Ganger on the same line!

  28. Lowetide says:

    J-Bo:
    Is Safin injured or was he forgotten LT? I was thinking he would be at training camp.

    I’ve held him off waiting to see what happens after rookie camp. He might start the season on the IR. I have no info beyond the last game he played (and he looked wrecked).

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Benson is a superb passer and plays LW. James Neal is a shooter who prefers right wing with a left shot center:

    Benson/Nuge/Neal

    Two question marks on the wings and neither are great skaters but that is two really smart hockey players in Benson and Nuge, both hard workers.

    It could work!

    If Drai is first line I agree spread the wealth, make NUge’s life easy for a change.

    Nuge is a light player and not a burner. He’s a pass first C. Ideally give him wingers with size, that aren’t slow, and can shoot. I’m not sure Benson is ready but that is the odea.

    Might be something like
    Drai Connor Gagner/Kassian
    Nygaard Nuge Neal

  30. J-Bo says:

    I really see Jones and Persson as our 6/7 Dmen. Since both Russell and Jones have shown ability to play the right side it gives flexibility to the pairings. I do not see them sitting Russell this year in favour of a rookie. I think he will move around a bit to accommodate the rookies and Bennings play.

  31. fifthcartel says:

    The Oilers are 25th in Dom’s season projections.

    https://theathletic.com/1166232/2019/09/01/luszczyszyn-2019-20-nhl-season-previews/

    Not surprising, but gloomy considering 97 and all.

  32. J-Bo says:

    Lowetide: I’ve held him off waiting to see what happens after rookie camp. He might start the season on the IR. I have no info beyond the last game he played (and he looked wrecked).

    Oh ok. Thanks for updating. Hopefully he is good to go! he is coming from a ways back, but another interesting prospect in my eyes. 🙂

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    Those with a subscription to the Athletic may want to avoid Dom’s season projection for the Oilers posted this morning.
    Scathing.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Real nice dash down off the blue line and quick cut to the net and shot there by Broberg.

    Skeleffeta still down 1-0 in the third.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Those with a subscription to the Athletic may want to avoid Dom’s season projection for the Oilers posted this morning.
    Scathing.

    I thought it was very fair.

  36. bwar says:

    I would love to see Vanek in an Oiler’s jersey. When he came to play hockey in North America he started in Alberta, why not come back and finish off a great career here as well? He still had 36 points last year, 56 the year before that. I fully believe there is still a player there and maybe he’d compliment some of our playmakers.

  37. godot10 says:

    fifthcartel:
    The Oilers are 25th in Dom’s season projections.

    https://theathletic.com/1166232/2019/09/01/luszczyszyn-2019-20-nhl-season-previews/

    Not surprising, but gloomy considering 97 and all.

    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  38. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  39. digger50 says:

    Pet peave of mine:

    The premise or popular opinion that We are not and will not be a playoff team. We will burn off a year while we develop some talent and wait again for the draft.

    Drives me nuts

    McDavid going into his fifth season and Oil still cannot build a team around him. He has had two major injuries based on his style of play. Is that a 50% chance injury rate? So do we roll the dice on Connor while waiting to build a team? Who says he’ll be here in three years?

    I get it that there is only so much Holland can do. Or it takes time to recover from the Chiarelli mistakes. I get it.

    As a fan, I still find it unacceptable that the Oil still do not have a team built. It’s just not okay. I don’t want to see them do anything foolish. But my patience is thin. These are peak years of the best player!!

    The difference between winning and losing in this league is small. A goalie and a really good winger and watch out. They could have done that. Instead it was fix the bottom six. That should be the easy part. First you need exceptional players which we have, that’s the hard part. Then develop a core group and weareoh so close, and a goalie.

    I am still hopeful that somewhere in this roster stew they have Cooking, a team emerges. It can happen. But hell , if it’s a foregone conclusion we are just developing prospects then just sit Connor for the year and wait till they finally pull a team together.

  40. Professor Q says:

    digger50,

    If it’s your pet peeve, then why do you share it?

    Anything can happen and they can make the playoffs. Happens every year where lowly projected teams make it further than pundits pompously proclaimed. Look at St. Louis!

    I have optimism. I have belief. I think Edmonton will prove Dom Luz. and Button and Pronman and The Hockey Guy and Leafs fans and other doubters wrong. This year and beyond. Holland will be good. Tippett will also be good. McDavid and Draisaitl will be great.

    People are projecting Florida very highly simply due to Bobrovsky. Other teams will be falling, others rising. I think Edmonton will be one despite constraints this season (even more next offseason).

    We’ll see. One more month to go!

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Berglund with a chance from the slot in the dying minutes with the goalie pulled but no goal.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg on the ice down by a goal with 90 seconds left on the PP.

    A weak clearing attempt goes in to the empty net and Skelefftea is going to lose.

    Promising ice time situations for Broberg though and that’s the key for the year.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujjarvi with an assist 19 seconds in to the game.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Berglund with some late PP time as well and makes a really nice rush down the right side from the point, a centering pass and a goal. Really nice play by Berglund.

  45. hunter1909 says:

    Let’s get this party started:

    Hunter1909’s own, personal Death March™ Prediction:

    Oilers get 101 points.

    JP scores 12 goals.

  46. silasbengtsson says:

    digger50:
    The difference between winning and losing in this league is small. A goalie and a really good winger and watch out. They could have done that. Instead it was fix the bottom six. That should be the easy part. First you need exceptional players which we have, that’s the hard part. Then develop a core group and weareoh so close, and a goalie.

    I’d say that fixing the bottom-6 is one way to help boost the team. While I’d rather bring in big names that fix our 2nd line, I recognize the difficulties surrounding that, as well.

    It’s a path for one season that doesn’t cost as much in either cap or term commitments and leaves the options open for proper upgrades higher up the lineup in the future. I look at it like this; if we can get lines 3 and 4 closer to 50% GF at 5-on-5 from the around 35-40% they were last year, then that alleviates some of the outscoring burden McDavid’s line has to account for.

    Line 1: 55% GF (McDavid w/ Drai might even push higher)
    Line 2: 46% GF (I’d love it to be higher, but Nuge isn’t known for outscoring at 5-on-5)
    Line 3: 43% GF (hard shutdown line that can do as much as possible to limit scoring)
    Line 4: 50% GF (soft minute, out-scoring line that Tippett mentioned)

    If we can get the lines somewhere around there and get both special teams running well, we might have a shot.

  47. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: I thought it was very fair.

    Unfortunately so.
    His comment about 9 fourth liners struck me as a major indictment.

  48. yeraslob says:

    hunter1909,

    Oilers get 91 pts

    JP scores 28 goals

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    Jaxon Bellamy
    4th ranked player in Qmjhl draft.
    Picked #16 in Qmjhl draft.
    Watching video of his lane coverage length.
    Press of Blue
    Transition passing.
    His nasty nasty physical def of HD area.

    He shows the same at rookie camp.
    He would be our second best HD def prospect behind Lagesson.

    Aggressive at the blue line
    Transition passing
    Plus defender

    Sounds like Samorukov – I’ll take him at this point.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: Unfortunately so.
    His comment about 9 fourth liners struck me as a major indictment.

    AND opportunity. Marody Benson Yamamoto and probably the player acquired for JP.

  51. bardown says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter
    Put me down for 93 pts and 18 goals please. Thanks

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909,

    78 points. 15 goals.

  53. SpotTheLoon says:

    hunter1909,

    I’ll go 86 Points and 18 goals

  54. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    Hunter,

    87 pts
    and
    18 goals pre-NHL return

    32 goals if he remains in Liiga all season

  55. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: Unfortunately so.
    His comment about 9 fourth liners struck me as a major indictment.

    His comment about two below-average fourth lines was previously made in the blog comments here prior to his article going live.

    The Oilers need a lot of things (many improbable) to workout to avoid an embarrassing season.

  56. Glovjuice says:

    hunter1909:
    Let’s get this party started:

    Hunter1909’s own, personal Death March™ Prediction:

    Oilers get 101 points.

    JP scores 12 goals.

    103 points and 0.5 g per game but if need a number 14 then a trade.

  57. norm_klassen says:

    95 points and 16 g notes for pool party go Oilers go

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg was 2nd on the team TOI – just a shade under 20 minutes.

  59. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: His comment about two below-average fourth lines was previously made in the blog comments here prior to his article going live.

    The Oilers need a lot of things (many improbable) to workout to avoid an embarrassing season.

    Former player and analyst Mike Johnson was on Vancouver sports radio last week suggesting Tippet might adopt a strategy of getting his bottom three lines to play a very tight checking trap game in hopes that the top line could outscore enough to win.
    I’m not sure Nuge and a couple of palookas will be up to the task.

  60. gn68 says:

    hunter1909,

    75 points for oilers
    17 goals for JP

  61. leadfarmer says:

    Koskinen let it one goal more than he should have last year.
    One!!!
    When you don’t play defense you can only blame the goalie so much

  62. Andy Dufresne says:

    Oilers story line for 2019-20

    Connor McDavid completes the tri-fecta for the first time in his career; wins the Lindsay, the Art Ross.and the Hart trophies

    Tippett nominated for the Jack Adams.

    The rest is details.

  63. jtblack says:

    83 Points.

    16 Goals.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    silasbengtsson: I think it’s wise for some to temper their expectations of Samy. He’s an excellent prospect who has a very full toolkit, but I think we’ve seen this story enough times. Dial back any hopes of the NHL and even of moving up the AHL batting order too quickly. Something like Jones’ 1st pro season is what we should expect and- in my opinion- be happy with.

    I don’t disagree with the premise, in fact, I agree.

    I will put expectations higher than Jones’ first year pro solely because he’s coming in off a superior season to Jones in their last years of junior. Lets not forget, Samorukov’s offensive numbers and in addition to the fact that he’s a defence first player – his main attributes have been defending the rush and defensive play.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    ancientcanuck:
    Here is a great link to the skelleftea grenoble match.The second period just started.

    http://www.hockeyhebdo.com/news-chl–16h-skelleftea-aik—grenoble-en-direct–video-,26879.html

    Just so every knows, all the games are streamed on youtube through the Champions Hockey League official site. Super easy to watch.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Lagesson’s first AHL season was quality, his even strength goal differential as an AHL rookie was very strong. I know you’ve trumpeted him but that doesn’t really move the needle. “Saw him good” can fool you. This blog focuses on numbers and the ‘intel’ is strong on him. No guarantees mind and I hope for your sake he makes it. NHL defense is a tough tough job.

    Don’t know for my sake – hope for the sake of the team and its fans as a whole.

  67. Professor Q says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Oilers story line for 2019-20

    Connor McDavid completes the tri-fecta for the first time in his career; wins the Lindsay, the Art Ross.and the Hart trophies

    Tippett nominated for the Jack Adams.

    The rest is details.

    Didn’t he win that in his Sophomore season?

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/connor-mcdavid-hart-trophy-ted-lindsay-ea-sports-nhl-18-1.4172572

    He just didn’t get the Rocket.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo:
    Is Safin injured or was he forgotten LT? I was thinking he would be at training camp.

    He’s scheduled to attend rookie camp and, as per his social media, on a plan to Canada right now.

    Likely a miss.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    I think I found a picture of Marleau.

    https://images.app.goo.gl/N1TW9J7x8xPzAZSQ7

    Dude hasn’t missed a game in over a decade.

    In 20 years, the most he missed in a single season was 8 games. It was his rookie season, so I’m not even sure it was due to injury.

    I’m pretty sure he’s not human.

    Iginla-like.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I’ve held him off waiting to see what happens after rookie camp. He might start the season on the IR. I have no info beyond the last game he played (and he looked wrecked).

    I’ve seen him training in Europe on his IG over the last while. While his “training” is seems to be he and is buddies goofing around, as 20 year olds do, he doesn’t seem hurt.

    Of note, Makskmov was “more hurt” are rookie camp, wasn’t he?

    I hope he’s fully recovered from the knee.

  71. Oil2Oilers says:

    hunter1909:
    Let’s get this party started:

    Hunter1909’s own, personal Death March™ Prediction:

    Oilers get 101 points.

    JP scores 12 goals.

    I am willing to jump in early;

    Oilers with 94 points and JP with 12 (because he only lasts in Finland until December)

  72. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    LT

    Hunters Death March is a very popular side bar to your blog.

    Subject, of course to Hunters wishes, would it work to make an HDM 19/20 blog post.

    That way:

    1) Everyone could post there predictions in that blog post

    2) Hunter wouldn’t have to work so hard to try and get all the entries

    3) It would allow everyone to edit there predictions up to start of season putting everyone on the same page instead of early entries wishing they could change but being stuck with initial entry.

    4) Make it easier for everyone to refer to it during the season.

    Just a thought

  73. JustWatt says:

    Hunter,

    Oilers: 84
    PJ: 23

  74. Oil2Oilers says:

    My impressions of Benson’s skating has moved from ‘questionable’ to ‘passable’ with the completion of his first fully healthy season in many years. All eyes will be on him this upcoming rookie camp my question to the group is how can we best gauge if his summer’s work has moved his skating to be classified as ‘good’ at the NHL level? Would expecting him to now be at Ryan McLeod level be a fair measuring stick for example?

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Pet peave of mine:

    The premise or popular opinion that We are not and will not be a playoff team. We will burn off a year while we develop some talent and wait again for the draft.

    Drives me nuts

    McDavid going into his fifth season and Oil still cannot build a team around him. He has had two major injuries based on his style of play. Is that a 50% chance injury rate? So do we roll the dice on Connor while waiting to build a team? Who says he’ll be here in three years?

    I get it that there is only so much Holland can do. Or it takes time to recover from the Chiarelli mistakes. I get it.

    As a fan, I still find it unacceptable that the Oil still do not have a team built. It’s just not okay.I don’t want to see them do anything foolish. But my patience is thin. These are peak years of the best player!!

    The difference between winning and losing in this league is small. A goalie and a really good winger and watch out. They could have done that. Instead it was fix the bottom six. That should be the easy part. First you need exceptional players which we have, that’s the hard part. Then develop a core group and weareoh so close, and a goalie.

    I am still hopeful that somewhere in this roster stew they have Cooking, a team emerges. It can happen. But hell , if it’s a foregone conclusion we are just developing prospects then just sit Connor for the year and wait till they finally pull a team together.

    Patience is thing for many and, sure, fair enough.

    At the same time, management has been in place for only a few months.

    Many are comfortable with the “re-set” offseason, understanding that the lower-risk, cap re-structuring type off season should be key in setting up more substantial transactions over the next few years.

    Others think more could have and should have been done this off-season to provide surety on substantial improvement right away. A subset of those are of that opinion with little view to the future whole the other subset believe such improvements could have been made while also not derogating from the future.

    Management’s primary goal is cleary to build a legit Stanley Cup contender, year over year, within the next few years. Of course, small bets were made to try and improve the team this year but also to set the team up for more substantial improvements in the next few years.

    I’m fully confident that, if management believe they could move the team further along in the immediate while also setting it up for the future, it would have done so. They must have thought the moves were too risky vis-a-vis building a champion.

    As far as McDavid and prime – sure, his prime offensive years are essentially starting now and for the next few, however, his prime years as a “hockey player” will run through his 20s. McDavid is phenomenal but there are many areas of the game where he can and will improve – its going to be wonderful.

    He is 22. He just finished the 1st year of an 8 year contract. He is a smart kid who has spoken to Holland and will clearly be in the know about why Holland has done (and not done) what he’s done (and not done).

    I have zero concern over where McDavid will be in 2, 4, 6 years.

  76. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Oilers with 79 points and #FoolPartly with 16 goals.

  77. Reja says:

    leadfarmer:
    Koskinen let it one goal more than he should have last year.
    One!!!
    When you don’t play defense you can only blame the goalie so much

    I’m so glad 1st and 2nd shot Talbot are gone killed so much confidence in a fragile team last year. Can’t wait for the Dynamic Duo to set the tone early with Tippett’s defence in place.

  78. digger50 says:

    Harpers Hair: Unfortunately so.
    His comment about 9 fourth liners struck me as a major indictment.

    I just read the article. He is harsh “extreme incompetence “ but I’m glad somebody is telling it like it is. I’m very disappointed in the state of the roster. How can we have so many unknowns? So many bets?

    Regardless, a team may emerge here. We are ranked truthfully at 27th. Still every chance of exceeding expectations.

    Despite my pre-season view I will have my Hunter prediction in around the mid 90’s because you just have to have some faith. On that note I hold my prediction back until the trade that Holland has coming.🙂

  79. Professor Q says:

    digger50: I just read the article. He is harsh “extreme incompetence “ but I’m glad somebody is telling it like it is. I’m very disappointed in the state of the roster. How can we have so many unknowns? So many bets?

    Regardless, a team may emerge here. We are ranked truthfully at 27th. Still every chance of exceeding expectations.

    Despite my pre-season view I will have my Hunter prediction in around the mid 90’s because you just have to have some faith. On that note I hold my prediction back until the trade that Holland has coming.

    It’s not like Holland had a lot to work with to substantially improve the team, and he made some moves that seemed impossible. It’s weird how people put that pressure on him and expected him to build a dynasty in 4 months with limited cap space.

  80. Reja says:

    digger50: I just read the article. He is harsh “extreme incompetence “ but I’m glad somebody is telling it like it is. I’m very disappointed in the state of the roster. How can we have so many unknowns? So many bets?

    Regardless, a team may emerge here. We are ranked truthfully at 27th. Still every chance of exceeding expectations.

    Despite my pre-season view I will have my Hunter prediction in around the mid 90’s because you just have to have some faith. On that note I hold my prediction back until the trade that Holland has coming.

    Debbie take a Downer it’ll be alright. When we’re up 3 games to 1 in the first round you’ll feel better.

  81. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    LT

    Hunters Death March is a very popular side bar to your blog.

    Subject, of course to Hunters wishes, would it work to make an HDM 19/20 blog post.

    That way:

    1) Everyone could post there predictions in that blog post

    2) Hunter wouldn’t have to work so hard to try and get all the entries

    3)It would allow everyone to edit there predictions up to start of season putting everyone on the same page instead of early entries wishing they could change but being stuck with initial entry.

    4) Make it easier for everyone to refer to it during the season.

    Just a thought

    The better path forward is using the website designed to host the contest, but I think Hunter’s dog ate the Admin password and he can’t access the database any longer

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes:
    Hunter,

    87 ptsand
    18 goals pre-NHL return

    32 goals if he remains in Liiga all season

    Whoa, if he gets 18 goals by December 1, that will be something.

    32 would have lead the league last year, by 2.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Koskinen let it one goal more than he should have last year.
    One!!!
    When you don’t play defense you can only blame the goalie so much

    May I ask what you are getting at here?

    One more goal? Is that a reference to GSAA?

    Also, as far as not playing defence, if i remember correctly, HDSA as a team were mid-ranked.

    Not trying to be a dick, just legit trying to figure out the premise.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    Oilers story line for 2019-20

    Connor McDavid completes the tri-fecta for the first time in his career; wins the Lindsay, the Art Ross.and the Hart trophies

    Tippett nominated for the Jack Adams.

    The rest is details.

    If Tippett is nominated for the Jack Adams that I’m confident almost every Oiler poster in this community will be happy – well, unless the team is led by MacKinnon and Makar as two of the 4 pieces received in the McDavid trade……

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilOilers:
    My impressions of Benson’s skating has moved from ‘questionable’ to ‘passable’ with the completion of his first fully healthy season in many years. All eyes will be on him this upcoming rookie camp my question to the group is how can we best gauge if his summer’s work has moved his skating to be classified as ‘good’ at the NHL level? Would expecting him to now be at Ryan McLeod level be a fair measuring stick for example?

    That would a very unfair measuring stick in my opinion. McLeod’s best attribute is his skating, he is indeed a plus skater and, no offence to Benson, he will never skate at McLeod’s level – that would be like hoping that Lucic could have improved his skating to measure up to Kassian’s…..

  86. Younger Oil says:

    Hunter:

    81 points for the Oilers

    20 goals for JP (or 0.33 GPG if he gets traded/moved to the NHL)

    Thanks for doing this!

  87. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar: That would a very unfair measuring stick in my opinion.McLeod’s best attribute is his skating, he is indeed a plus skater and, no offence to Benson, he will never skate at McLeod’s level – that would be like hoping that Lucic could have improved his skating to measure up to Kassian’s…..

    Agreed, but what would be a fair comparable to evaluate Benson’s skating against at the upcoming rookie camp? I already expect his play making ability to be superior to the rest of the group I am looking to figure out what strides (sic) he has made with his skating.

  88. pts2pndr says:

    Oil2Oilers: Agreed, but what would be a fair comparable to evaluate Benson’s skating against at the upcoming rookie camp? I already expect his play making ability to be superior to the rest of the group I am looking to figure out what strides (sic) he has made with his skating.

    Close or on par with Yamamoto and faster than Chaisson

  89. yeraslob says:

    digger50,

    IMO, the Oilers have lacked a system (or perhaps player buy-in?) that supports the D. As in HELP GET THE DAMN PUCK OUT OF YOUR END! I hope these potentially new bottom 6 guys pan out as they all have speed in their game. Speed is now never a bad thing but, lack thereof, is. Hope Tippett has a system. Hope we have a faster team. Fast teams are fun to watch.

  90. hunter1909 says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    LT

    Hunters Death March is a very popular side bar to your blog.

    Subject, of course to Hunters wishes, would it work to make an HDM 19/20 blog post.

    That way:

    1) Everyone could post there predictions in that blog post

    2) Hunter wouldn’t have to work so hard to try and get all the entries

    3)It would allow everyone to edit there predictions up to start of season putting everyone on the same page instead of early entries wishing they could change but being stuck with initial entry.

    4) Make it easier for everyone to refer to it during the season.

    Just a thought

    Please. Hunter’s Death March™ is predicated on players being held to their original predictions.

    On the other hand, if you want to send say, a 100,000,000,000,000.00 Zimbabwean Dollar donation we just might be able you give you a second chance to predict that which you seek; but since that’s only actually 40 cents in fact you can make your prediction closer to the Oct 1 deadline and that way try to seek that edge you’re looking for.

  91. jp says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: On the outside looking in: Gagner and Jurco.

    I’ve got a feeling Gagner will have a bigger role this year than many expect.

    The year he played under Tippett in Arizona he was the teams top scoring forward. Played center mostly (3rd in faceoffs) and was 2nd in even strength TOI with lots of PP time as well.

    My guess is he wins the 3C job or one of the winger spots in the top 6, but we’ll have to wait and see. I’d be surprised to see him in the press box though, especially straight out of camp.

  92. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss: The better path forward is using the website designed to host the contest, but I think Hunter’s dog ate the Admin password and he can’t access the database any longer

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

    Excellent analysis. In fact, I got sick of paying web types to update a sight which in the end was following no more than an incompetent hockey team, while lining the owner’s pockets.

    While I’d love to get the sight up to date(and I currently hope to), perhaps someone from the Lowetide community can point me toward a cheaper webmaster than I’ve been currently paying, or everyone else make more fucking donations to the sight, lol

    : p

    PS: I intend to provide a Death March™ message board, more or less unmoderated if/when can get to the root of the problem. Not any competition for Lowetide intended, just a less PC place for the most rabid fans to vent spleen.

  93. PokeCheck says:

    Hunter: Please put me down for 85 points for the Oilers and 17 goals for Jesse.

    As for the Athletic article, the scathing review was deserved since adding Marleau would absolutely be a blockbuster by our current standards. However, I’m not sure that Larsson deserved to be run over several times and then shot for good measure. He wasn’t the one managing the roster.

  94. Oil2Oilers says:

    pts2pndr: Close or on par with Yamamoto and faster than Chaisson

    Good suggestion thanks

  95. Pescador says:

    yeraslob:
    digger50,

    IMO, the Oilers have lacked a system (or perhaps player buy-in?) that supports the D. As in HELP GET THE DAMN PUCK OUT OF YOUR END!I

    Where is Yeraslob Spacecheck when you need him?

  96. Gerta Rauss says:

    hunter1909,

    I’m assuming the “donate” button on your site is still working..?

    How about everyone that enters your contest goes to your site and donates $1 per entry, and maybe that enables you to get your site operational again and up to date for the coming season

    It would be nice to have a live scoreboard that everyone can reference throughout the season

  97. hunter1909 says:

    One of the things I think I’ve picked up right from the start of following pro sports is just how wrong pundits are when predicting results. It seems they check last season’s standings, then pick all of the teams to re-emerge as playoff contenders, and miss out 90% of the time when a non-playoff team takes a spot.

    Holland+Tippett give the Oilers stability they haven’t had since Sather. Being a bit of a loose cannon myself, I understand the importance, nay the critical part stability from coaching and General managing has on athletes. Chiarelli+McLellan were ok to start with, but the fact they weren’t even on the same page totally screwed the pooch as soon as things started to turn sour. Particularly with the Lowe+MacT Axis hovering around the team. MacT comes off as a David Brent character here; already sacked yet still hanging around like he still had a role to play. Once again, this is organisational madness.

    Now, “The Detroit Model” is finally here. Ken Holland has shed the team of Lucic’s awfulness, which all by itself is as impactful as bringing in a top 6 player if only by subtraction. The bottom 6 looks set to improve(how can’t it?) and so with my natural outsider mentality 101 points seems reasonable, so long as the team gets off to a fast start.

  98. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Patience is thing for many and, sure, fair enough.

    At the same time, management has been in place for only a few months.

    Many are comfortable with the “re-set” offseason, understanding that the lower-risk, cap re-structuring type off season should be key in setting up more substantial transactions over the next few years.

    Others think more could have and should have been done this off-season to provide surety on substantial improvement right away.A subset of those are of that opinion with little view to the future whole the other subset believe such improvements could have been made while also not derogating from the future.

    Management’s primary goal is cleary to build a legit Stanley Cup contender, year over year, within the next few years.Of course, small bets were made to try and improve the team this year but also to set the team up for more substantial improvements in the next few years.

    I’m fully confident that, if management believe they could move the team further along in the immediate while also setting it up for the future, it would have done so. They must have thought the moves were too risky vis-a-vis building a champion.

    As far as McDavid and prime – sure, his prime offensive years are essentially starting now and for the next few, however, his prime years as a “hockey player” will run through his 20s. McDavid is phenomenal but there are many areas of the game where he can and will improve – its going to be wonderful.

    He is 22.He just finished the 1st year of an 8 year contract.He is a smart kid who has spoken to Holland and will clearly be in the know about why Holland has done (and not done) what he’s done (and not done).

    I have zero concern over where McDavid will be in 2, 4, 6 years.

    I’m of the opinion that Holland should have come in and made one move to improve the team in a substantial way. Incremental improvement. He hasn’t done that. Don’t get me wrong. I think Holland has done a good job – the Lucic trade really rescues his summer IMO – but he needed to acquire a legit forward or goalie and he didn’t. Just add one piece. He should have used the Chiasson money more wisely.

  99. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hey Hunter
    95 points and 20 G for Jesse

  100. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    hunter1909: Please. Hunter’s Death March™ is predicated on players being held to their original predictions.

    On the other hand, if you want to send say, a 100,000,000,000,000.00 Zimbabwean Dollar donation we just might be able you give you a second chance to predict that which you seek; but since that’s only actually 40 cents in fact you can make your prediction closer to the Oct 1 deadline and that way try to seek that edge you’re looking for.

    Interesting how that was interpreted

  101. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think Holland has done a good job – the Lucic trade really rescues his summer IMO – but he needed to acquire a legit forward or goalie and he didn’t.

    1 – Holland isn’t finished.

    2 – Holland will be up for making trades right up to the trade deadline.

    3 – Old Oilers management were, not to put a PC spin on it foolhardy. The NHL knew they were suckers, and took them to the cleaners accordingly. Holland is no fool, and everyone knows it.

    4 – Tippett can get blood out of a stone when it comes to players buying into his wishes. He’s still in his prime years as a head coach, has already had pretty good success, and like Holland has a clear head which I doubt is given to the kind of outbursts of willfulness shown by Todd McLellan. Methinks Tippett is going to be the key to OIler’s success this season. Anyone who can watch Oilers tapes of seasons gone past has got to the have work ethic of a Ninja.

  102. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer:
    Koskinen let it one goal more than he should have last year.
    One!!!
    When you don’t play defense you can only blame the goalie so much

    Admittedly I only watched maybe half the games last year, and usually only for a period, but it must have been different games than what you were watching, because to me he looked downright awful outside of an early season Anders Nilsson style run.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m of the opinion that Holland should have come in and made one move to improve the team in a substantial way.Incremental improvement.He hasn’t done that.Don’t get me wrong. I think Holland has done a good job – the Lucic trade really rescues his summer IMO – but he needed to acquire a legit forward or goalie and he didn’t. Just add one piece. He should have used the Chiasson money more wisely.

    It would have been nice, I think it’s important to note Holland also has to prove there’s a new sheriff in town and the Oilers are not the league’s dollar store anymore. No more puppet masters pulling strings.

    Who knows what has been discussed. I don’t see Chiasson as the answer for much, but the others like him. Perhaps that was about being short on good RH shots, and building up team chemistry and culture, which I think Pete and Todd did poorly at and is really important to team sports.

    Only one miracle happened, but they malcontents are not in the room anymore, and there is competition at all roster spots. I also like that the players brought in are mostly good skaters and none are gritensity types. Speed and some skill.

    Hopefully some rise up.

    I also don’t buy that everyone else is loaded and the Oilers barren. No team is stacked for long in a capped league. Team play and a cohesive org floats a lot of boats that would take on water elsewhere.

  104. hunter1909 says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: Interesting how that was interpreted

    I don’t really interpret stuff. I just read anything that concerns me and usually freak out. It’s something a good shrink could figure out in a minute.

    I’m sure your idea has value, but I’m perfectly happy collecting the names and analysing the Death March data. If you would like to join the Death March team, you’re welcome to fire an electronic mail thingy over which can be accessed at the site which I think is still running.

    Been running this thing for 6 seasons now, like, wow.

  105. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: 1 – Holland isn’t finished.

    2 – Holland will be up for making trades right up to the trade deadline.

    3 – Old Oilers management were, not to put a PC spin on it foolhardy. The NHL knew they were suckers, and took them to the cleaners accordingly. Holland is no fool, and everyone knows it.

    4 – Tippett can get blood out of a stone when it comes to players buying into his wishes. He’s still in his prime years as a head coach, has already had pretty good success, and like Holland has a clear head which I doubt is given to the kind of outbursts of willfulness shown by Todd McLellan. Methinks Tippett is going to be the key to OIler’s success this season. Anyone who can watch Oilers tapes of seasons gone past has got to the have work ethic of a Ninja.

    I agree with all of this and hope you’re right with your predictions about future moves.

  106. Munny says:

    hunter1909,

    Gerta Rauss,

    This is a great idea.

  107. Munny says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, do you have a backup plan if Jesse gets traded prior to Game 1 puck drop?

    (From the guy who typically makes his prediction about 15 seconds before said puck drop, not that it’s helped him any)

  108. Yeti says:

    Dear Huntuur,
    Please put me down for my normal 69 points (it’s the ‘McDavid gets injured early and hard’ scenario).
    As for JP, we’re talking just goals in the regular season SM-Liiga? Then 25.
    Gracias,
    Yeti

  109. Ryan says:

    jp: I’ve got a feeling Gagner will have a bigger role this year than many expect.

    The year he played under Tippett in Arizona he was the teams top scoring forward. Played center mostly (3rd in faceoffs) and was 2nd in even strength TOI with lots of PP time as well.

    My guess is he wins the 3C job or one of the winger spots in the top 6, but we’ll have to wait and see. I’d be surprised to see him in the press box though, especially straight out of camp.

    There are many potential scenarios with Gagner. I hope he’s spent all summer working on maintaining his first step.

    I’d certainly deploy him on the second power play unit and try to utilize him in the offensive zone face offs when the big guys are resting.

  110. hunter1909 says:

    Munny:
    hunter1909,

    Hunter, do you have a backup plan if Jesse gets traded prior to Game 1 puck drop?

    (From the guy who typically makes his prediction about 15 seconds before said puck drop, not that it’s helped him any)

    Thank you very much for that excellent question.

    It probably would have been better to predict the amount of points MacT’s Russian team gets in the KHL, but so long as Jesse plays any time in his current league methinks that should be it. 1 goal or 50, a prediction is a prediction.

    September 1 and already I feel like I’m getting sucked into the Lowetide universe. Only the other day it was still high summer, with beautiful sunny hot weather, drinking French rose wine on a hillside.

  111. Dr. Taboggan says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 70. 14 goals for JP.

    Putrid forward depth and suspect goalies. Yuck.

  112. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    My impressions of Benson’s skating has moved from ‘questionable’ to ‘passable’ with the completion of his first fully healthy season in many years. All eyes will be on him this upcoming rookie camp my question to the group is how can we best gauge if his summer’s work has moved his skating to be classified as ‘good’ at the NHL level? Would expecting him to now be at Ryan McLeod level be a fair measuring stick for example?

    Would be nice, but I think McLeod has a gear that Benson will never have…but I don’t think Benson needs that extra gear to be successful!

  113. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: Former player and analyst Mike Johnson was on Vancouver sports radio last week suggesting Tippet might adopt a strategy of getting his bottom three lines to play a very tight checking trap game in hopes that the top line could outscore enough to win.
    I’m not sure Nuge and a couple of palookas will be up to the task.

    Honestly, I’ve been wondering why this hasn’t been attempted already.

    I agree that the personnel is likely inadequate, but why not?

    The putative two below average fourth lines are going to get lit up one way or another.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilOilers: Agreed, but what would be a fair comparable to evaluate Benson’s skating against at the upcoming rookie camp? I already expect his play making ability to be superior to the rest of the group I am looking to figure out what strides (sic) he has made with his skating.

    I don’t know the answer to the question but i think comparing him to the guy that is likely the best skater on the ice and already skates at a plus NHL level is unfair. Maksimov, Lavoie, Safin – likely better comparisons in my mind although I’m not sure if he needs to be compared to any other skater – we saw him take strides through the year last year and I simply hope for continued progression.

  115. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Looking forward to post-game pressers this year by the coach that don’t include the phrase “the team in orange”

    That subtraction is an addition to a better culture.

  116. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Former player and analyst Mike Johnson was on Vancouver sports radio last week suggesting Tippet might adopt a strategy of getting his bottom three lines to play a very tight checking trap game in hopes that the top line could outscore enough to win.
    I’m not sure Nuge and a couple of palookas will be up to the task.

    I asked that very question about a week or so ago. Do we see Tippett deploy the trap this season? I think given the personnel, it’s a definite possibility.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I’ve got a feeling Gagner will have a bigger role this year than many expect.

    The year he played under Tippett in Arizona he was the teams top scoring forward. Played center mostly (3rd in faceoffs) and was 2nd in even strength TOI with lots of PP time as well.

    My guess is he wins the 3C job or one of the winger spots in the top 6, but we’ll have to wait and see. I’d be surprised to see him in the press box though, especially straight out of camp.

    I 100% agree that Gagner will have a material role on this team. Small sample size but he did produce at good rates as an Oiler last year and that was without McDavid – he’s also a 0.5 PPG (or so) guy over the last few years.

    With that said, I don’t see him at 3C as Tippett said he see’s him as a winger.

    I do think that Tippett plans on using Sammy as a “utility” guy that can be move around. I don’t see him as being a top 6 winger, game in and game out but a guy that can fill in up there if there is an injury (and the other lines should be kept together) or even in game if a change is needed.

  118. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Ryan,

    Was this not attempted last year? Turns out a line of AHLers is not sufficient to shut down NHL second and third lines.

    I really think the play is to loan McDavid to another team for the season in exchange for picks.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV: I’m of the opinion that Holland should have come in and made one move to improve the team in a substantial way.Incremental improvement.He hasn’t done that.Don’t get me wrong. I think Holland has done a good job – the Lucic trade really rescues his summer IMO – but he needed to acquire a legit forward or goalie and he didn’t. Just add one piece. He should have used the Chiasson money more wisely.

    Yes, you are in the subset that believe a more material moves could have should have been made this off-season that would have provided more certainty in improvement but not hurt the future.

    I’m confident Holland would have done exactly that if such a move had presented itself and I’m confident he was working towards such a move. He must have deemed any potential move as too risky.

    You acknowledge it somewhat but the Milan Lucic disposition is a substantial move – it may be a lateral move (taking on another anchor contract) with some logistical benefits (buyout structure, no NMC), but that move also acquired a “substantial forward” – a player that was a legit top 6 goal scorer every year he was in the league, 10 straight years, until last year.

    There is no surety, and I know that’s part of what you are looking for, however, James Neal could very well be a legit top 6 goal scorer this year.

  120. Eh Team says:

    jp: I’ve got a feeling Gagner will have a bigger role this year than many expect.

    You know it’s sad when you are hoping for a 30 year old forward likely on his last contract and season in the NHL to play a big role on your team. A 30 year old rescued from Vancouver’s AHL team.

    Everyone is assuming that we will get repeats of McDavid, Drai and Nuge’s last year. That’s 2 guys with career seasons and McDavid coming off a serious injury.

    For sure our bottom half of the roster will be better, just on shear numbers of options plus some young guys pushing through. But there’s tons of down side risk with our best players and our goaltending is still suspect.

    On the plus side, lots of opportunity and young guns ready to capitalize. Plus another top10 draft pick next summer. And we got Lucic off the roster. Perhaps Russell can follow soon enough.

  121. Ryan says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Ryan,

    Was this not attempted last year? Turns out a line of AHLers is not sufficient to shut down NHL second and third lines.

    I really think the play is to loan McDavid to another team for the season in exchange for picks.

    I didn’t watch the Oilers playing out the string.

    Did they run a 1-2-2 forecheck?

    You want parity? Imagine if we could loan out McDavid what the return would be? That would accelerate a rebuild but create other issues.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy:

    Who knows what has been discussed. I don’t see Chiasson as the answer for much, but the others like him. Perhaps that was about being short on good RH shots, and building up team chemistry and culture, which I think Pete and Todd did poorly at and is really important to team sports.

    I like Chiasson but I’m uncertain what his spot in the lineup should be. He’s not a top 6 winger and I fear he’ll get too many at bats there. He’s not a good enough skater or checker to be that third line type that Tippett likes. Not sure he skates well enough to be a fourth line energy type player and he wasn’t signed at over $2M to play that role.

    Where does Alex fit?

    I think Alex gets a bump because he is a good locker room guy and is evolving in to a bit of a “leader” on the team.

    As far as right shot shooter: Alex C. at $2.1M X 2 or Thomas Vanek at $1M X 1?

    I don’t know where Vanek would fit either as I’m not sure he play top 6 minutes and not get killed (without McDavid)

  123. Pescador says:

    hunter1909: 1 – Holland isn’t finished.

    2 – Holland will be up for making trades right up to the trade deadline.

    3 – Old Oilers management were, not to put a PC spin on it foolhardy. The NHL knew they were suckers, and took them to the cleaners accordingly. Holland is no fool, and everyone knows it.

    4 – Tippett can get blood out of a stone when it comes to players buying into his wishes. He’s still in his prime years as a head coach, has already had pretty good success, and like Holland has a clear head which I doubt is given to the kind of outbursts of willfulness shown by Todd McLellan. Methinks Tippett is going to be the key to OIler’s success this season. Anyone who can watch Oilers tapes of seasons gone past has got to the have work ethic of a Ninja.

    These are not terrible takes HuntR
    Let’s hope Playfair is more “Silent Assassin” &
    then “Beverly Hills” ninja

  124. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Chiasson but I’m uncertain what his spot in the lineup should be. He’s not a top 6 winger and I fear he’ll get too many at bats there. He’s not a good enough skater or checker to be that third line type that Tippett likes.Not sure he skates well enough to be a fourth line energy type player and he wasn’t signed at over $2M to play that role.

    Where does Alex fit?

    Where does Chaser fit?

    In the mistake column. In the I wish I hadn’t signed that contract section…

  125. pts2pndr says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Hunter
    Re death march would you put me down for 97 pts
    JP 23 goals
    Thanks for doing this.

  126. digger50 says:

    Reja: Debbie take a Downer it’ll be alright. When we’re up 3 games to 1 in the first round you’ll feel better.

    Hey Reja, if you have something intelligent to say then do so.

    This is the third time you throw out a snarky remark because you have a different opinion.
    Get stuffed.

  127. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: Where does Chaser fit?

    In the mistake column. In the I wish I hadn’t signed that contract section…

    If Holland had not signed Chiasson and Granlund and had bought out Gagner instead of Sekera, he could have easily been in on Michael Ferland who has wheels, toughness and plays very well with skilled players. But he didn’t.

  128. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair: If Holland had not signed Chiasson and Granlund and had bought out Gagner instead of Sekera, he could have easily been in on Michael Ferland who has wheels, toughness and plays very well with skilled players. But he didn’t.

    No one knows if this is how things could have went down or not. Conjecture, Your Honour.

  129. RT26 says:

    Using Dom’s concerns from his projection and the resources we have on the team right now, I would build the following lines:

    Drai. McD. Archibald- who can skate, has decent hands and defensive awareness
    Chiasson. Nuge. Neal
    Granlund. Marody. Gagner
    Khaira. Cave. Kassian

    Let the kids dominate the AHL, save for Marody or Sheahan if we can grab him

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    When you have the likes of Sam Gagner, Alex Chiasson, Josh Archibald, JJ Khaira, M. Granlund on the lines, they are not below average fourth lines. All of those players, give or take Archibald and Khaira, have had success up the lineup and are solid bottom 6 players.

  131. pts2pndr says:

    Ryan: Where does Chaser fit?

    In the mistake column. In the I wish I hadn’t signed that contract section…

    No he fits in the insurance column. In the event Neal or Nygard are not the answer. He is getting paid at third line cap and has shown to be able to play on the PP. Some of the roster spots will be filled by committee and while not ideal is a reasonable short term fix. What Holland has done is hedge his bets so to speak. A team is not all about individuals and is a sum of its parts. If for example three different players split the time at say second line left wing and collectively score 20 goals at collective cap hit of six million is that all doom and gloom. There is normally more than one road to most destinations.

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    Professor Q: No one knows if this is how things could have went down or not. Conjecture, Your Honour.

    Conjecture is what this site is all about Your Honour.
    Would you prefer Chiasson or Ferland patrolling Connors wing?

  133. Turning Tikkanese says:

    Put me down for 98 points, 14 goals for Puljujarvi, all before Dec 1.

  134. ashley says:

    Hunter:

    99 points
    JP – 11 goals

  135. Rebillled says:

    Smith is gonna have to come in standing on his head if this team has any chance this year.

    and not get hurt.

    #roloson2.0

  136. northerndancer says:

    Question Lowetide.

    Is it the Peter Paul and Mary version of Hurry Sundown,
    ( My sorrow’s song, now, just must break through,
    That brave new dawn, now, long overdue.)

    or the Little Richard version

    (So you got to hurry sundown
    I can’t wait to see the morning
    There’s a lot of work
    I must lend a hand to
    So bring on that new day
    A great tomorrow is on it’s way)

    that puts you in such as hopeful mood today?

    The future is certainly finally rosy with prospects and a calm promise of a better day. I feel so good I am going to break my promise of the spring and once again spend some of my hard earned dollars on my Game Centre season sub so I can watch this team from the wild woods.

    No heartbreak without hope!

    Hunter put me down for 101 points and JP for a Euro season of 19 before coming back across the pond.

  137. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, if he gets 18 goals by December 1, that will be something.

    32 would have lead the league last year, by 2.

    I expect him to.

  138. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    jp: I’ve got a feeling Gagner will have a bigger role this year than many expect.

    The year he played under Tippett in Arizona he was the teams top scoring forward. Played center mostly (3rd in faceoffs) and was 2nd in even strength TOI with lots of PP time as well.

    My guess is he wins the 3C job or one of the winger spots in the top 6, but we’ll have to wait and see. I’d be surprised to see him in the press box though, especially straight out of camp.

    We will see. There will be a few hungry “hustle guys” in TC and based on some of the moments I’ve seen, Gags could get his lunch eaten. He isn’t the quickest or most D-zone conscious player around, right?

    Veteran wiles and Tippet history aside, there is a reason 2 other, not-so-deep orgs sent him to the A the last few years (when he was younger than he is now….).

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Conjecture is what this site is all about Your Honour.
    Would you prefer Chiasson or Ferland patrolling Connors wing?

    I would not want to commit four years to Ferland including a NMC in force for the expansion draft – even if there wasn’t the issue that he hasn’t proven to be fully recovered as a player to the pre-concussion player he was.

    Also, how about Kassian for half the price and only a one year commitment – for all we know, that’s Kril Maksimov’s job in a year…..

  140. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    jp: I’ve got a feeling Gagner will have a bigger role this year than many expect.

    The year he played under Tippett in Arizona he was the teams top scoring forward. Played center mostly (3rd in faceoffs) and was 2nd in even strength TOI with lots of PP time as well.

    My guess is he wins the 3C job or one of the winger spots in the top 6, but we’ll have to wait and see. I’d be surprised to see him in the press box though, especially straight out of camp.

    Am expecting waived, FWIW.

  141. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: If Holland had not signed Chiasson and Granlund and had bought out Gagner instead of Sekera, he could have easily been in on Michael Ferland who has wheels, toughness and plays very well with skilled players. But he didn’t.

    Not entirely sure about Ferland or outbidding the Nucks for his services, but you’re right. Not signing Chiasson and Granlund while buying out Gagner would have left the blue line in better shape at the same time allowing signing better offensive options than Chiasson..

  142. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: Not entirely sure about Ferland or outbidding the Nucks for his services, but you’re right. Not signing Chiasson and Granlund while buying out Gagner would have left the blue line in better shape at the same time allowing signing better offensive options than Chiasson..

    Exactly.
    Ferland wanted to return to Western Canada.
    Playing on Connor’s wing would have been one hell of a drug.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would not want to commit four years to Ferland including a NMC in force for the expansion draft – even if there wasn’t the issue that he hasn’t proven to be fully recovered as a player to the pre-concussion player he was.

    Also, how about Kassian for half the price and only a one year commitment – for all we know, that’s Kril Maksimov’s job in a year…..

    Always next year. That’s not how the league works.
    Kassian has already shown he’s below replacement level.
    Ferlands NMC is for one year.
    He can be exposed in the expansion draft but I doubt the Canucks would do that.

  144. Lowetide says:

    northerndancer:
    Question Lowetide.

    Is it the Peter Paul and Mary version of Hurry Sundown,
    ( My sorrow’s song, now, just must break through,
    That brave new dawn, now, long overdue.)

    or the Little Richard version

    (So you got to hurry sundown
    I can’t wait to see the morning
    There’s a lot of work
    I must lend a hand to
    So bring on that new day
    A great tomorrow is on it’s way)

    that puts you in such as hopeful mood today?

    The future is certainly finally rosy with prospects and a calm promise of a better day.I feel so good I am going to break my promise of the spring and once again spend some of my hard earned dollars on my Game Centre season sub so I can watch this team from the wild woods.

    No heartbreak without hope!

    Hunter put me down for 101 points and JP for a Euro season of 19 before coming back across the pond.

    The Peter Paul and Mary but only because of those harmonies that have been rolling around in my mind since childhood.

  145. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: If Holland had not signed Chiasson and Granlund and had bought out Gagner instead of Sekera, he could have easily been in on Michael Ferland who has wheels, toughness and plays very well with skilled players. But he didn’t.

    What if Holland pitched Ferland and he said no?

  146. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy,
    What if he didn’t?
    That seems to be the most logical conclusion since he re-signed Chiasson on July 1st and bought out Sekera the same day.
    Occam’s Razor.

  147. northerndancer says:

    Lowetide,

    Those harmony styles are coming back if Darlingside and the Brother Brothers from this year’s Edmonton Folk Festival are the sign of things to come (back). Any brave new dawn works for me. Thanks for all.

  148. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny: I asked that very question about a week or so ago.Do we see Tippett deploy the trap this season?I think given the personnel, it’sa definite possibility.

    All teams these days mostly play the trap, one way or another. Gully mentioned the importance of special teams bcs 5v5 scoring is extremely hard to do these days.

    My concern is the same coach is in charge who couldn’t figure out (unless hampered by org insanity) how to get McDavid Draisaitl and Hopkins destroying all PKs.

    Should be pretty easy IMO. Blaming it on the PP D is weak. Klef Nurse and Benning are not without some skills. And we know most scoring is down low.

    I hope he sorts it, but I wasn’t on board with GG being hired and remain unconvinced he is a mover.

    Creativity without being stupid is what’s needed. Or even being stupid, but changing soon if it’s not going to get the job done.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Scungilli Slushy,
    What if he didn’t?
    That seems to be the most logical conclusion since he re-signed Chiasson on July 1st and bought out Sekera the same day.
    Occam’s Razor.

    Could be. Maybe he doesn’t want gritensity guys more than he has, and signed Chiasson partly to send a message to the team about having loyalty to players that did something to help. The deal isn’t a bad one which would be the concern.

  150. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: The Peter Paul and Mary but only because of those harmonies that have been rolling around in my mind since childhood.

    Funny but I happened to play “Sundown” by Gordon Lightfoot after reading your blog today, not realising it was in the title. Darren Brown stuff.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Always next year. That’s not how the league works.
    Kassian has already shown he’s below replacement level.
    Ferlands NMC is for one year.
    He can be exposed in the expansion draft but I doubt the Canucks would do that.

    Term of contract is important. If you don’t agree with that then we have little to discuss.

    Looking not only to the next year but to the future is important. If you don’t agree with that then we have little to discuss.

    15 goals in not replacement level, in particular with nominal PP time. If you don’t agree with that then we have little to discuss.

    He has a NMC for two years – he must be protected in the expansion draft.

    That contract comes with great risk in particular with his concussion issues and required style of play – very risky term and trade protection for a marginal top 6 guy is a non-starter for this org.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair:
    Scungilli Slushy,
    What if he didn’t?
    That seems to be the most logical conclusion since he re-signed Chiasson on July 1st and bought out Sekera the same day.
    Occam’s Razor.

    Sekera was bought out prior to July 1 during the actual buyout period which closes on June 30.

    The buyout was to provide cap flexibility during the free agent period, the summer and the season.

    Its clear that Chiasson was not Holland’s first option – if he had a hard target on Chiasson, he could have been re-signed long before free agency.

    In fact, Chiasson had been clear before July about his desire to resign and the organization were the non-committal party – not even having talks with the player until late in the spring.

  153. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Term of contract is important.If you don’t agree with that then we have little to discuss.

    Looking not only to the next year but to the future is important.If you don’t agree with that then we have little to discuss.

    15 goals in not replacement level, in particular with nominal PP time.If you don’t agree with that then we have little to discuss.

    He has a NMC for two years – he must be protected in the expansion draft.

    That contract comes with great risk in particular with his concussion issues and required style of play – very risky term and trade protection for a marginal top 6 guy is a non-starter for this org.

  154. Harpers Hair says:

    This is nonsense.
    For many reasons.
    He has a NMC for ONE year. Then a modified NTC clause for the final two years….10 team no trade list.
    He will easily outscore Chiasson, Kassian and Gagner who are taking up more than $7 million in cap space.
    Betting on a a pair of sevens and a five is just dumb.

  155. Nit64 says:

    hunter1909: It probably would have been better to predict the amount of points MacT’s Russian team gets in the KHL, but so long as Jesse plays any time in his current league methinks that should be it. 1 goal or 50, a prediction is a prediction.

    That’s fair, but your tiebreaker will be immediately useless to settle ties between post trade entrants.

  156. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Ninja.

    I’ve stated a few times that I’m not thrilled with the Chiasson contract, but Ferland at 4 x 3.5 is an even bigger mistake IMO.

  157. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    This is nonsense.
    For many reasons.
    He has a NMC for ONE year. Then a modified NTC clause for the final two years….10 team no trade list.
    He will easily outscore Chiasson, Kassian and Gagner who are taking up more than $7 million in capspace.
    Betting on a a pair of sevens anda five is just dumb.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/micheal-ferland

    2019-20 NMC $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $0 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $4,500,000 $4,500,000
    2020-21 NMC $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $0 $0 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000
    2021-22 Modified NTC $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $0 $0 $3,750,000 $3,750,000 $3,750,000
    2022-23 Modified NTC $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $0 $0 $2,750,000 $2,750,000 $2,750,000

  158. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Chiasson but I’m uncertain what his spot in the lineup should be. He’s not a top 6 winger and I fear he’ll get too many at bats there. He’s not a good enough skater or checker to be that third line type that Tippett likes.Not sure he skates well enough to be a fourth line energy type player and he wasn’t signed at over $2M to play that role.

    Where does Alex fit?

    I think Alex gets a bump because he is a good locker room guy and is evolving in to a bit of a “leader” on the team.

    As far as right shot shooter: Alex C. at $2.1M X 2 or Thomas Vanek at $1M X 1?

    I don’t know where Vanek would fit either as I’m not sure he play top 6 minutes and not get killed (without McDavid)

    You mentioned you don’t think Gagner will play C and you very well may be right.

    My thoughts though had been that a 3A/3B bottom 6 setup made sense, with a checking/PK line (like Tippett has mentioned) and a line with a bit more skill. Something along the lines of…

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Benson-Nuge-Neal
    Nygard-Gagner-Chiasson
    Granlund-Khaira-Archibald

    The bottom 2 lines would have different roles but likely similar importance and minutes. Something like that would be plausible for Gagner as a C and would be a good landing spot for Chiasson. Of course there’s 1000 other ways this could shake out.

  159. jp says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: Am expecting waived, FWIW.

    Fair enough. There’s no question camp will be fun to see how all this stuff plays out.

  160. jp says:

    Ryan: Where does Chaser fit?

    In the mistake column. In the I wish I hadn’t signed that contract section…

    He’ll be the ~240th highest paid forward in the league this season. He needs to score 26 points (based on last season) to cover that bet scoring wise.

    You may not agree, but I’d take the over on that for sure. He doesn’t need to do much to be fair value for the contract.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair:
    This is nonsense.
    For many reasons.
    He has a NMC for ONE year. Then a modified NTC clause for the final two years….10 team no trade list.
    He will easily outscore Chiasson, Kassian and Gagner who are taking up more than $7 million in capspace.
    Betting on a a pair of sevens anda five is just dumb.

    Why do you keep posting incorrect information that is so easy verifiiable, especially in the light of being corrected?

    He has a NMC for both of the first two years of his contract – as per both puckpedia and capfriendly.

    He has a career high of 41 points and has hit the 20 goal mark once – he now deals with concussion issues. Lets not make this player out to be more than one he is. A marginal top 6 player with a very risky contract.

  162. pts2pndr says:

    Ryan: Not entirely sure about Ferland or outbidding the Nucks for his services, but you’re right. Not signing Chiasson and Granlund while buying out Gagner would have left the blue line in better shape at the same time allowing signing better offensive options than Chiasson..

    Ok so where do you play your four experienced left shot D, two of which are third pairing capable. Buying out Sekera was the best bet given what Holland had to work with. It opened up a spot for a young D to audition. Russel will probably be moved at the deadline.

  163. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    Sheahan would be #3 of my 4 young vet that got green highlighter, Asterix, & checkmark on Free agency list.
    Choice of one of the 2 EW 2.5 M salary projection forwards
    Hartman 2.51M projection, he 2 @1.9 M from MIN
    Granlund 2.5M projection, he got 1@ 1.3M from holland
    The 2 superior EVG fwds of Top 3 younger PK forwards
    Archibald 1.6M projection, He got 1@1.0M from Holland
    Sheahan 1.3M projection

    Looking at my paper notes Of top performing Ufa PK forwards and oilers pre FA
    Archibald 4.67 pkga/60
    Accari 5.11
    Khaira 5.92
    Sheahan 6.53
    All top 80 PK forwards.

  164. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    Tipett did state his 3 preferred ( big min together) off pairs were.
    Drai – Mcdavid – xxx
    Neal – RNH – xxx
    Granlund – xxx – Archibald.

    Last year 1000 EVTOI was
    #41 LW
    #76 C
    #45 RW

    As I have stated earlier this summer.
    The top 9 forwards are seeing 50+% Off FO ZS.
    Meaning that the 4th line are DZ eaters for most teams.

    Looking at last years Off FO ZS
    Gambardella 15gm 26.32%
    Malone 16gm 28.79%
    Brodziak 70gm 31.69%, 14 toughest of all top 7 C per team
    Currie 21Gm 36.84%,
    Archibald 68gm 38.96%, 6 th hardest of any RW and he is #51 RW 12 evg
    Cave 33 gm 41.40%, 50th hardest of all the top 7 Per team C
    Granlund 77gm 41.56%, 19 th hardest of top 4 ( starting) per team LW, #60 LW 10 evg.
    Gagner 25gm 42.39%, 13th toughest of top 4 ( starting) per team RW, #37 RW .95 evg/60
    Khaira 60gm 45.48%
    RNH 82gm 46.37%

    Archibald, Granlund, Gagner to have bottom 20 off ZS for position and be top 62 evg or Evg/60 players is just elite evg production.

    No wonder tipett wants #3 pair to be Granlund – xxx – Archibald.
    DZ FO buried and top 62.
    Holy f………………….

    All other 3rd line options are silly!

  165. rickithebear says:

    Avg evg for 860 + EVTOI (#65 LW/ #60 RW) seasons last 5 yrs
    Ferlund 13 evg
    Chaisson 12 evg.

    Avg PPG for their only 2 140+ min ( top 150 fwd) PP seasons
    Ferlund 6 ppg
    Chiasson 7 ppg

    Given top 6 fwd winger ev min and fringe PP1 min they are both 18-20 goal scorers.
    With youth in the pipeline a 2 @ 2.15M is a great price for potential 20g scorer.

    Chiasson contract is his 28 & 29yr season.
    Ferlund is 27-30yr season.
    Ferlund is a winger Peterson needs.

  166. Ryan says:

    jp: He’ll be the ~240th highest paid forward in the league this season. He needs to score 26 points (based on last season) to cover that bet scoring wise.

    You may not agree, but I’d take the over on that for sure. He doesn’t need to do much to be fair value for the contract.

    I respect your opinion. We see things differently.

    The reason that Chiasson contract is the hill I die on is it represented capitulating on improving the roster and ultimately on the season. With that signing Holland gave up his last amount of cap flexibility for a player not good enough to move the needle. Let’s not forget about the current RFA stalemate and the lost possibilities of the value of cap flexibility in getting a more impactful player than Chiasson via trade.

    It was also a foolhardy move for other reasons. We bought out Sekera a year too early to pay for Chiasson. That’s sort of like trading Eberle for Strome, then giving Eberle’s money to Russell.

    I was actually a huge fan of Chaser last summer when he signed the PTO. But to buyout Sekera and use most of that cap savings on a guy who can’t produce at evens above a fourth line level offends sensibilities. The Oilers are and were tight to the cap with a paucity of actual top six players and a third line center. That’s sort of like when you are getting your first apartment and you don’t have a couch, tv, or microwave, but you spend your last two hundred bucks on a food processor.

    Your bet is for the next two seasons don’t forget. Including last year, he’s been at or above 26 points in three of six seasons. Given the roster composition and his right shot, there’s a good chance he gets 26 points this season. He’ll likely be on the 1st PP unit and playing in the top six (where he’s inadequate). There’s also a pretty good chance he doesn’t hit 26 pointsin his 30-year-old season the next year. Either way, your typical $2.15m forward probably is producing from the bottom nine, not on the 1st power play unit and playing substantial minutes with Draisatl at even strength. Also, you can’t really draw a line in the sand at~240th highest paid forward because that would be inclusive of players on their ELC and RFA seasons.

    Lastly, no team in the league loves paying for a heater more than the Edmonton Oilers. We’ve been doing it for years. Teams with an analytics department would have probably asked Holland, “are you sure you want to do that?”

    At the end of the day, we spent more money than any team in the league has previously for the 29 and 30-year-old seasons of a fourth liner who had a hot stick last year.

  167. Ryan says:

    Somehow all of this discussion about Chaser, has me thinking about David Clarkson.

    25-year-old season (per 82 game pace)

    chaser: 15
    clarkson: 18

    27-year-old season (per 82 game pace)

    chaser: 24
    clarkson: 47

    28-year-old season (per 82 game pace)

    chaser: 42 points
    clarkson: 41 points

    29-year-old season per 82 game pace)

    chaser: ?
    clarkson: 15

    30-year-old season per 82 game pace)

    chaser: ?
    clarkson: 21

  168. Ryan says:

    rickithebear:
    Avg evg for 860 + EVTOI (#65 LW/ #60 RW) seasons last 5 yrs
    Ferlund 13 evg
    Chaisson 12 evg.

    Avg PPG for their only 2 140+ min ( top 150 fwd) PP seasons
    Ferlund 6 ppg
    Chiasson 7 ppg

    Given top 6 fwd winger ev min and fringe PP1 min they are both 18-20 goal scorers.
    With youth in the pipeline a 2 @ 2.15M is a great price for potential 20g scorer.

    Chiasson contract is his 28 & 29yr season.
    Ferlund is 27-30yr season.
    Ferlund is a winger Peterson needs.

    Chiasson will be 29 on game one of this season.

    He’s also only scored twenty goals or more once in his career with a career high shooting percentage. If you dial down his last season to his career average shooting percentage, last year he would have had 15 goals.

    I would not call Chiasson a good bet to score 20 goals.

    I’d say there are better odds his last year of his contract is bought out of he’s placed on waivers than he ever scores 20 goals again.

  169. Lowetide says:

    Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line

    https://theathletic.com/1177122/2019/09/02/connor-mcdavids-2019-20-pushing-for-50-goals-while-dave-tippett-loads-up-the-oilers-top-line/

  170. Jaxon says:

    Ryan: Chiasson will be 29 on game one of this season.

    He’s also only scored twenty goals or more once in his career with a career high shooting percentage. If you dial down his last season to his career average shooting percentage, last year he would have had 15 goals.

    I would not call Chiasson a good bet to score 20 goals.

    I’d say there are better odds his last year of his contract is bought out of he’s placed on waivers than he ever scores 20 goals again.

    Yup. You should also probably dial down his pp time if you want a realistic estimate. I think they may have better pp options this year.

  171. frjohnk says:

    Chiasson is a great example in which stats can be used that show him to be anywhere a 2nd liner to a 4th liner.

    If one uses EVG from last year, he scored at a 2nd line rate.
    If one uses EVG/60 over the last 3 years, he scored at a 3rd line rate
    If one uses EV Pts/60 over the last 4 years, he scored at a 4th line rate.
    Pts/60 last year? A 4th line rate

    Using just one stat does not define a player. The more stats that we use to surround a player will help us in placing value on said player.

    The majority of stats show Chiasson as a bottom 6 player but as last year showed, a bottom 6 player that can get hot for while playing with skill.

  172. hungoverman says:

    Hi Hunter. Please put me down for 82 points and 17 goals for Jesse.
    Thanks.
    Oh..thanks LT

  173. Indy says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Huntster!
    Going with the 102 pts and JP with 19

    Gonna be a good year!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca