LDR’s Video Games

by Lowetide

I’ve been thinking about Kailer Yamamoto. Suspect we all agree he has a tough road ahead during training camp and preseason compared to other hopefuls. Since Edmonton kept him on the roster twice, and he scored one goal in 26 games over those two seasons, and had a wrist injury and didn’t light the world on fire, many observers believe Yamamoto will spend the season in Bakersfield.

Makes sense. Until you look at the pro depth chart.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, take advantage of the incredible Labor Day Weekend offer here!

  • New Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

If we’re honest, the verbal during an offseason is heavily influenced by the most recent campaign. For specific prospects, that means the conversation can vary wildly. Who is Edmonton’s most consistent prospect? Has any forward delivered back-to-back 30+ NHLE seasons?

Cooper Marody: 33.0; 42.3

Tyler Benson: 28.3; 37.2

Joe Gambardella: 14.6; 36.8

Patrick Russell: 15.2; 30.1

Josh Currie: 26.0; 29.7

Kailer Yamamoto: 38.0; 25.6

Kirill Maksimov: 26.0; 25.2

Ryan McLeod: 25.8; 24.7

Raphael Lavoie: 18.6; 23.6

Ostap Safin 19.1; 14.7

Based on the last two seasons, and age, Marody plus Benson and Yamamoto are the most consistent forwards. Gambardella is a personal favourite, who I think owns skills this coaching staff will value, Josh Currie has forced his way into the conversation. I also think Patrick Russell brings enough interesting things (including PK acumen) to be in the conversation.

KHL

Ilya Konovalov’s Yaroslavl Lokomotiv play its first game of the KHL schedule this morning. The preview is here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, with NFL, U.S. Open Tennis and other news breaking. We start at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy will join us from The Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal at 10:20 and Kris Abbott from OddsShark will be by to talk mlb and NFL at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

116 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
116 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
godot10

ArmchairGM: The trouble is the opportunities this summer won’t be available next summer or the one after.

What about Laine? There are quite a few Twitter rumors that Chevy is talking to teams about Laine. Where does he rank vs Ehlers and Connor?

There are lots of ELC cap controlled snipers in the top ten of next years draft. That is why teams jumped on D at the draft this year. The better strategy to being lousy this year is to keep Nurse and Klefbom, and draft a high end forward next summer, than to trade for an already highly paid forward and gut the defense, which would also result in a lousy season.

OriginalPouzar

ptspndr: Actually yes it will be one person, Connor.

I believe the doctor actually will have the “official” say, no?

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Yes, nothing to see – the message is basically the same – time line was for training camp and to be ready to start the season which is still a month away:

________________________

“On Sept. 3, you can’t say whether he’s ready or not to start the season. He has another month before the season starts, and he’s in very good shape. No one is saying (he will be delayed) until November or December. He’s done extremely well so far, and everyone is happy with his progression.”

Barring any setbacks — “There haven’t been any setbacks,” Jackson confirmed — the rehab schedule is a six-month project. And at the five-month mark, all sides are happy with the condition of McDavid’s knee.

“Dr. (Dhiren) Naidu and (head athletic trainer) T.D. Forss went into Toronto, went to the Gary Roberts facility and spent some time with Connor. They saw Connor, examined him and were very pleased with his progress,” said Oilers general manager Ken Holland.

“Between the Oilers training staff and medical team, working together with the team Jeff Jackson has put together for Connor, certainly there are some top-notch people.

“Any decisions that are made on the timeline with Connor, it’s not going to be one person making them.”

Actually yes it will be one person, Connor.

ArmchairGM

Jordan: This is not the year to trade Nurse, as we don’t know what we have bubling under yet.Next summer, or the year after would be much better for the Oilers D pipeline timetable.

I wouldn’t trade Nurse for Kyle Connor straight up.Period.Overpay by a margin.Not quite Chiarelli/Tembellini overpay territory, but right next door.

I hadn’t seen Ehlers numbers for 2019.His Ex GF and FF% numbers are elite.My valuation of him as a player has changed from seeing those numbers.

I would trade Nurse for Ehlers straight up, and would be willing to add a sweetener.Would prefer Jesse, but could do Yammer if there was a 2020 2nd coming back too.

I don’t think it will happen, but would be happy to be wrong.

The trouble is the opportunities this summer won’t be available next summer or the one after.

What about Laine? There are quite a few Twitter rumors that Chevy is talking to teams about Laine. Where does he rank vs Ehlers and Connor?

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
We lost Hawkey’s rights this past August.

He is attending an NHL camp on a PTO – can’t remember which team. I think an eastern team.Washington maybe.

That’s what I thought, I was surprised to see him on the Oilers reserve list still. And a quick Google search indicates that your memory is correct: Washington it is.

OriginalPouzar

We lost Hawkey’s rights this past August.

He is attending an NHL camp on a PTO – can’t remember which team. I think an eastern team. Washington maybe.

OriginalPouzar

Rookies report today. Champions league resumes – I think both Karpat and Skelefeeta play.

We’re getting there.

ArmchairGM

Capfriendly has Hayden Hawkey on the Oilers reserve list still, with a Must Sign By date of August 15, 2020. I had thought we lost him this summer, did the eligibility extend because he’s doing another year of college?

ArmchairGM

godot10: If you trade Nurse or Klefbom, it won’t be a lost year, it will be a lost two or three years.

One would set the defense way to far back.The OIlers don’t have anyone even remotely close to replacing those two at the moment.

I agree. Only trade incumbents when they’ve been superceded by the youts, don’t trade them to make room for unproven prospects. With any luck 2 of the older crew (Jones, Bear, Persson and Lagesson) will prove capable of handling 3rd pairing minutes every day, making Russell expendable next summer. I don’t see any of these guys being plus top-4 defenders, I think we have to wait for the next wave for those: Bouchard, Samorukov and Broberg. Even then, I highly doubt any of them will have proved enough by next June to trade Nurse, Klefbom or Larsson – the only possibility here is that Bouchard dominates AHL, gets 30+ NHL games and knocks Benning out of a top-4 spot.

To reiterate, even if all prospects advance well this season, the only incumbents I see being made redundant are Russell and Benning. The reason I re-posted the trade suggestion was because there are a ton of young RFA forwards who may be available this summer and very few the next. The following summer, 2021, is probably the earliest such a trade (D for forward) could be workable for the Oilers, but the pickings are slim then too.

You either strike now or you build organically, IMO. Of course, there’s always the possibility of making that deal now and the targeting a UFA next summer to replace Nurse, so you are only losing 1 year.

ArmchairGM

Gerta Rauss: I wouldn’t have signed Chiasson on July 1, that’s for sure

I’m not sure how much Marleau would be expecting at this point

Kenny’s got a little walking around money, you’d think a signed contract right now would carry a little weight, certainly more than a PTO, or waiting…

Dutchie will find him a home at the trade deadline if Patty wants a playoff run

I agree with all of this. If Patty will sign for $1M, it lets the kids play big minutes in Bakersfield until February, whereupon we rid ourselves of every expiring contract and then test drive the young talent. And load up on mid-round picks.

ArmchairGM

ArmchairGM: Keller’s contract is about $600k above where EW had it, which isn’t unreasonable when you consider it doesn’t start until next year, meaning it’s probably perfectly accurate based on percentage of cap. You’re pegging Connor’s at $2.5M more than EW.

Now that I’ve had a chance to check the numbers… based on an $83.5M cap next year, Keller’s contract works out to $548k more than EW had valued him at this summer.

Connor is valued at $6.815M on a 6 year deal, Keller’s contract doesn’t give him a value bump of $1.685M. On an 8-year contract, Connor is estimated to be worth $7.161M, so something in the $7 – 7.5M range is reasonable.

ArmchairGM

Genjutsu: I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out

Keller’s contract is about $600k above where EW had it, which isn’t unreasonable when you consider it doesn’t start until next year, meaning it’s probably perfectly accurate based on percentage of cap. You’re pegging Connor’s at $2.5M more than EW.

v4ance

Bruce Dowbiggin on the Rogers slash and burn of it’s on air talent:

http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com/i-dont-like-mondays/2019/9/2/pwo3dh00b0sjoox4lki68i2s9ehw3j

Audacious. That’s perhaps the best word to describe Rogers Communications attempt to supplant CBC and TSN as the go-to network for the NHL in Canada in 2013. It committed $ 5.2 billion over twelve years to buy national rights to Hockey Night in Canada and the rest of the TV and digital product on offer from the league.

Disastrous. That’s probably the best word to describe the outcome of the gamble. With the announcement the past few weeks that a significant slice of the on-air talent was being let go for economic reasons, it’s now clear that Rogers’ plans— shepherded by then-Rogers Media president Keith Pelley and his 2IC Scott Moore— are an embarrassing failure.

***

Last summer Rogers brass summoned Moore for a showdown. Informing him that 80 percent of their costs were tied up in properties. They demanded he cut salaries and payroll he’d generously awarded staff. The man who’d been the face of the deal since Pelley left for the European PGA Tour in 2016 told his bosses that he was a builder, not a tear-down guy.

With that Moore walked off to enjoy himself in a long-delayed holiday, leaving the people he’d recruited to fend for themselves. (Moore has subsequently found a new gig working with LeBron James.) Everyone who remained was going to be asked to tighten their belt, some by as much as 20 percent on their contracts.

Other news, Pierre McGuire demoted at NBC and replaced by Brian Boucher:

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/nbc-replacing-pierre-mcguire-on-national-nhl-broadcasts-report

Per impeccable source, Pierre McGuire has been removed from NBC Sports’ No. 1 hockey team, to be replaced by Brian Boucher.— Rick Carpiniello (@RickCarpiniello) September 4, 2019

CallighenMan

Bank Shot: Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol

Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine. ?

DSF is always comedy gold. Intelligent? not so much…

Munny

I like the idea of a Marleau-Gegner-Kassian 3rd line. Especially if they can muck a lot of faceoffs.

Problem is, it likely moves Chiasson up to the 2nd line, because it’s Archibald or him. But if they can go Nygard at 2L maybe they’ll have enough speed to keep their heads above water. Still pretty meh for O though.

JimmyV1965

I agree with Godot. Nurse and Klef should be untouchable. Both are just entering their prime. If you delete them from the roster, you’re now waiting for the kids to mature, but doing it without the benefit of some older vets to support them. So our defence gets younger at the expense of guys in their prime, rather than guys exiting their prime. I would love to get Ehlers or Connor, but not at the price of Nurse or Klef.

Glovjuice

Johnny skid: don’t forget about Loui Eriksson.

Good deal that Seguin trade for him.

Johnny skid

Bank Shot: Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol

Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine.

don’t forget about Loui Eriksson.

Bank Shot

Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
Dumb.

Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol

Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine. 😛

jp

jtblack: Fair points. I don’t see the Holland bets doing much better than last year’s crew overall …. The slight improvement from the bottom players and Neal will be offset by a slight decline from the Top 3 players IMO.

https://oilersnation.com/2019/07/05/how-will-the-edmonton-oilers-improve-part-two/

Gerta Rauss

Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
Dumb.

I wouldn’t have signed Chiasson on July 1, that’s for sure

I’m not sure how much Marleau would be expecting at this point

Kenny’s got a little walking around money, you’d think a signed contract right now would carry a little weight, certainly more than a PTO, or waiting…

Dutchie will find him a home at the trade deadline if Patty wants a playoff run

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: Yes because waiting for Marleau to get rejected by all the teams he wants to play for would have been such a better plan

A much better plan.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
Dumb.

Yes because waiting for Marleau to get rejected by all the teams he wants to play for would have been such a better plan

leadfarmer

Genjutsu: I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out

The smart bet is to pay a little extra for those few extra years right now. Cap will be flat next year as they try to get escrow under control. But new tv contract will increase the cap. Guys like Connor and Drai are going to regret taking those long contracts which is the only smart thing Chia did. I’m guessing in 5 years Mcdavid contract will be outside top 10 in league

Professor Q

Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
Dumb.

They didn’t rush anything and can still sign Marleau.

Harpers Hair

Gerta Rauss:
Marleau will not be returning to the Sharks this year but still wants to play in the NHL

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/agent-marleau-wont-play-for-sharks-this-season/ar-AAGOl8W?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
Dumb.

Georgexs

Let’s compare the season-to-season correlation of some offensive metrics for forwards who have played at least 20 games in each consecutive season:

5v5 P60, 5v5 Pts, 5v5 Pts/GP, Total P60, Total Pts, Total Pts/GP

If 5v5 P60 is the best gauge of a forward’s performance and potential, then, ideally, it should yield a relatively high season-to-season correlation when compared to the other metrics. Knowing a forward’s 5v5 P60 in one season should give us a pretty good idea how they’ll perform in the next season. So let’s see how 5v5 P60 does against the alternatives.

season, 5v5 P60, 5v5 Pts, 5v5 Pts/GP, Total P60, Total Pts, Total Pts/GP

2007, 0.51, 0.67, 0.67, 0.74, 0.79, 0.83
2008, 0.56, 0.67, 0.71, 0.73, 0.78, 0.84
2009, 0.54, 0.64, 0.70, 0.72, 0.75, 0.82
2010, 0.54, 0.63, 0.69, 0.68, 0.74, 0.81
2011, 0.54, 0.63, 0.68, 0.70, 0.76, 0.82
2012, 0.51, 0.64, 0.66, 0.69, 0.74, 0.80
2013, 0.53, 0.70, 0.69, 0.69, 0.79, 0.82
2014, 0.51, 0.62, 0.65, 0.72, 0.76, 0.81
2015, 0.49, 0.59, 0.64, 0.69, 0.73, 0.79
2016, 0.42, 0.62, 0.60, 0.67, 0.75, 0.79
2017, 0.53, 0.67, 0.69, 0.74, 0.80, 0.83

I know. A lot of numbers. Concentrate on the second column in each row and scan across.

Well. Of all the metrics, 5v5 P60 has the lowest season-to-season correlation. In EVERY season.

If you made a habit of using 5v5 P60 to set expectations for a forward’s offensive performance in an upcoming season (or to grade his performance in a given season), you’d be using the noisiest and least reliable and reproducible of the metrics available to you. You may think you’re capturing the essence of offensive skill. But, by the correlations, you’ll find that forwards have a hard time consistently demonstrating this skill. The season-to-season results are simply too random. When you strip away other parts of the game and hone in on 5v5 scoring rates as the core of the game, you get closer to random than to skill.

If you stop and think about how 5v5 P60 is calculated and you compare it to the other metrics, you can start to see why.

Gerta Rauss

Marleau will not be returning to the Sharks this year but still wants to play in the NHL

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/agent-marleau-wont-play-for-sharks-this-season/ar-AAGOl8W?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

Genjutsu

ArmchairGM: It shouldn’t, according to Evolving Wild.

I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: This is the thought process.

Given the current situation I think it is reasonable to expect the team to break camp with 13 forwards 8 defensemen and two goal tenders.

OriginalPouzar

ScungilliSlushy:
Woodguy said the opposite about Gunarsson IIRC.

My point is happy people do thingsbetter.

The role players the Oilers have are better than last season, it’s up to Tip to get them going,Connor or no Connor.

Players put into the right spot can overachieve.

Tippett has indeed expressed that is what of his top attributes – getting the most out of players by putting them in a position to succeed.

Then again, last offseason (mid-season for Hitch):

– Yawney said the D would move the puck up the ice quicker
– McLellan said he would have more line continuity
– Hitchcock said he would fix Puljujarvi

ArmchairGM

Genjutsu: I doubt Kyle Connor signs a 7m x 6 contract. I’d imagine his price point starts at 8.5.

It shouldn’t, according to Evolving Wild.

pts2pndr

ArmchairGM: Is it though? Ehlers has scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 in his career while Connor has scored 34 per 82 in his 2 full seasons. We don’t need another distributor, we need a shooter and as such, I think Connor would be worth the extra million bucks it would cost to sign him to a 6 year deal.

Having said this, I don’t know a lot about either player.

I think it is a deal worth thinking about. Team strength is LD. If it was an Eastern conference team it would be enticing. We have Lagesson, Jones, Samorukov and our latest first round draft choice in the wings with Russel to hold down the fort for a year. I do not think Holland does that deal until such time as he is comfortable with his evaluation of current assets.

Melvis

I’m not going to quibble with OP’s post regarding CMD’s return, however I was wondering about Fan Day on Sept.14. It’s free and there’s an open practice between noon and 1:30. How important is it Connor shows up in 9 days?

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy said the opposite about Gunarsson IIRC.

My point is happy people do things better.

The role players the Oilers have are better than last season, it’s up to Tip to get them going, Connor or no Connor.

Players put into the right spot can overachieve.

pts2pndr

godot10:
Lowetide broke the first rule of Kailer Club (again).He was thinking about Kailer.

Please.Do not think about Kailer Yamamoto till January 1st.

What year?

Scungilli Slushy

Who here remembers when Woodguy said that Gunnarson was the type of D that helps a team win Cups?

OriginalPouzar

EhTeam: Then if the 7th D was actually needed, we would waive Manning and bring up someone capable of playing in the NHL?Then he could watch in the press box in the AHL!

This is the thought process.

OriginalPouzar

McNuge:
There is talk on Overdrive and Tim and Sid today about some comment by McDavid’s agent that hints he may not be ready for camp. Some reference to November. Anybody hear what was said. Although I have to say some of those guys are ill-informed. The standins for Tim and Sid (Arash and??/) are both saying McDavid is not even skating yet, only dryland so obviously they are out to lunch.

Also, the signing by Coyotes of Keller really sets a bottom bar for any of the RFAs. Treliving must be crapping his pants. As soon as season starts if I was a team with cash I’d make an offer sheet.

Yes, nothing to see – the message is basically the same – time line was for training camp and to be ready to start the season which is still a month away:

________________________

“On Sept. 3, you can’t say whether he’s ready or not to start the season. He has another month before the season starts, and he’s in very good shape. No one is saying (he will be delayed) until November or December. He’s done extremely well so far, and everyone is happy with his progression.”

Barring any setbacks — “There haven’t been any setbacks,” Jackson confirmed — the rehab schedule is a six-month project. And at the five-month mark, all sides are happy with the condition of McDavid’s knee.

“Dr. (Dhiren) Naidu and (head athletic trainer) T.D. Forss went into Toronto, went to the Gary Roberts facility and spent some time with Connor. They saw Connor, examined him and were very pleased with his progress,” said Oilers general manager Ken Holland.

“Between the Oilers training staff and medical team, working together with the team Jeff Jackson has put together for Connor, certainly there are some top-notch people.

“Any decisions that are made on the timeline with Connor, it’s not going to be one person making them.”

Scungilli Slushy

I’ll be shocked if Nurse is traded.

The nhl still highly values tough, and if you have a top 3 D that is a fantastic skater, team guy and a significant fighter, who trades that player? Only to employ a marginal knuckle dragger?

Same reason Kass may hang around for a lesser contract. Fast and tough, no square pucks. What will get him is sobriety or on ice discipline if it happens.

godot10

v4ance:
IF this year is considered a “reset” or lost year, a trade of Nurse for Ehlers makes some sense.

If you trade Nurse or Klefbom, it won’t be a lost year, it will be a lost two or three years.

One would set the defense way to far back. The OIlers don’t have anyone even remotely close to replacing those two at the moment.

HT Joe

v4ance:
Chiarelli went from a situation of having too many talented forwards and not enough D and transformed the roster in the exact opposite direction.

I see what you’re saying, but I would respectfully counter that you can never have too many talented forwards, and for all the promise of the Oilers’ budding defensemen, the blue line still looks to have a long way to go before balance or even average quality.

Genjutsu

ArmchairGM: Is it though? Ehlers has scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 in his career while Connor has scored 34 per 82 in his 2 full seasons. We don’t need another distributor, we need a shooter and as such, I think Connor would be worth the extra million bucks it would cost to sign him to a 6 year deal.

Having said this, I don’t know a lot about either player.

I doubt Kyle Connor signs a 7m x 6 contract. I’d imagine his price point starts at 8.5.

Scungilli Slushy

jtblack: Fair points.I don’t see the Holland bets doing much better than last year’s crew overall …. The slight improvement from the bottom players and Neal will be offset by a slight decline from the Top 3 players IMO.

A lot of people had St.Louis predicted as division winners prior to the season.They should have been a playoff calibre team, and once they got a goalie who could make some saves, they played well….. nobody could have predicted the Cup tho, but the bottom line is that St.Louis had a very deep and talented roster ….

Vegas was a surprise as the castoffs went all the way … But upon further review, all people quickly realized that Marscheaullt, Smith, Tuch, Karlsson were more than castoffs … Again, nobody could have predicted that season but gong into this year VEGAS has a deep and talented roster …

When teams have a deep and talented roster, there is no gurantee of success, butthe sky is limit if things start clicking ..

Edmonton to me, has the opposite of a deep and talented line up.They have a Couple Super Stars and a few Good Players combined with a bunch of question marks ….

In Fairness to your point, 6 wins is not outlandish. So could they hit 90 points?of course they could. If I had to lay my $$$ on the table.I take the under and say not likely.Could happen. But not likely.

In both cases it was coaching imo.

Good rosters but they punch punch above their weights.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: Definitely no cavalry coming this year, well, unless Neal is able to bounce back to 15-25 and, honestly, I do think there is solid potential for that – no sure bet, but reasonably possible.

There are some potential RW options coming, not this year, maybe not even next (maybe though):

Maksimov
Lavoie
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi

True for Lavoie and possibly Maksimov.

My comment was in the context of the hypothetical trade involving Yamamoto (and Puljuljarvi presumably getting traded.) Given our lack of depth at RW, trading Yamamoto might not be a great idea even if his probability of success has dipped.

Great that Lavoie has a right-hand shot for sure.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Also bear in mind that a few WC teams are significantlyimproved and will be tougher to take points from.

and others are worse – Winnipeg, maybe Calgary, etc.

HT Joe

Jethro Tull,

Just my two cents, but when there were so many underperforming players, it seemed unfair that Bob was highlighting Reider’s 0 goals, and not the other dozen or so players who maybe should have played better on both sides of the ice. It would have been fairer if he rolled off a list of names…

Scungilli Slushy

texmex:
Darren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
·
5m
Tobias Rieder and Devante Smith-Pelly among those invited to @NHLFlames camp on a PTO.

Flamers love ex oilers

Who are the Flames gooning up to play against? Not that Tobi is a goon.

For how smart many here touted them as last season seems like they are walking down a well beaten path. Team too wimpy so lost, broken heart.

We’ll see how that turns out. I think I know.

OriginalPouzar

jtblack: Edm was a 78 point with career seasons from their 3 Top forwards …I don’t see that repeating, especially now with the uncertainty of McD and his timeline ….

Even if Mcd is back for opening night, most players struggle for 3 – 6 months after a knee injury …

Time will tell, but I don’t see a scenario where Edm reaches 90 points.

I expect regression in Leon’s points and goals but I expect both he and Drai to be “better players” overall and increase goal share, which is what really matters.

Also, last year had:

– terrible seasons by both Klefbom (injury) and Larsson (just a bad year) – i anticipate both will be substantially better and that is massive

– terrible seasons by the the incumbent #1 tender (Talbot) and marginal improvement, at best, by the “replacement”. I’m buying the verbal (and numbers) about Koskinen being better when not playing tired. Tippett will see to that as long as Smith is serviceable.

– total black holes in the bottom six, such as Rieder, Brodziak and, to a less extent, Lucic

– Lucic who essentially had zero chance at producing at top 6 rates – replaced by Neal who has a reasonable potential to do so.

————————

Not to mention coaching.

———————-

On McDavid, I don’t think that recovery addition relates to his injury – that is essentially for those with major knee surgery such as Sekera.

Scungilli Slushy

Side: You take into consideration that 3 of their forwards had career high years, but don’t take into consideration that their bottom forwards had career or near career lows.

Kyle Brodziak – 9 points after a 33 point campaign the year before
Tobias Rieder – 11 points (0 goals)after a 25 point (12 goal) campaign the year before
Ty Rattie – production did not carry over from the previous season
Milan Lucic – I don’t think I need to say more about Milan.

As much heat as Nicholson deservedly gets for singling out Rieder, I think he still has a point – if Rieder (or any of the other forwards or combination of forwards) scored 12 more goals (which is not unrealistic to expect…) that could have won a few more games.

And then there are all of the randoms/Chiarelli bets that were inserted into the lineup that did not put up any points at all so essentially, Chiarelli’s bets pretty much all flopped.

If even some of Holland’s bets show some return, I think the Oilers could squeeze out 6 more wins to go from 78 – 90 points, especially if the goalie duo works out well.

I guess we just don’t know until the season starts, but to me, the uncertainty means the Oilers could be a 78 point team, they could be a worse team, or they could be a better team.It’s hard to say now and sports are, well, sports.

After a season of the St. Louis Blues being dead last and literally fighting eachother in practice to winning the Stanley Cup, after witnessing the Las Vegas Golden Knights who no one ever, ever, EVER seriously expected them to make it into the playoffs, let alone the Finals, I am surprised to see people think that the Oilers getting 12 more points this season is anunrealistic scenario…

Bang on

Nothing is guaranteed to any team outside of the few current perennial contenders making the playoffs.

A cohesive team coached to the strengths of the roster can be greater than the sum of its parts, and a stacked team while it lasts can be less.

Teams now have the cap to contend with. I believe well run teams that contend have a better chance of turning out more helpful players from their drafts because of a few things. More competition for NHL spots, a better structure with more leadership and culture to come into, and more time to develop because roster spots are tough to get.

But it only takes a couple of flame outs to derail things cap wise (no cheap replacements that are quality) and I can’t think of any team that doesn’t have any those.

A GM that makes good decisions given a situation, understanding the cap and
assessing their roster correctly can keep their team close over time, by trading and not losing value, good UFA signings etc, but it’s no foregone conclusion it seems.