LDR’s Video Games

I’ve been thinking about Kailer Yamamoto. Suspect we all agree he has a tough road ahead during training camp and preseason compared to other hopefuls. Since Edmonton kept him on the roster twice, and he scored one goal in 26 games over those two seasons, and had a wrist injury and didn’t light the world on fire, many observers believe Yamamoto will spend the season in Bakersfield.

Makes sense. Until you look at the pro depth chart.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, take advantage of the incredible Labor Day Weekend offer here!

  • New Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

If we’re honest, the verbal during an offseason is heavily influenced by the most recent campaign. For specific prospects, that means the conversation can vary wildly. Who is Edmonton’s most consistent prospect? Has any forward delivered back-to-back 30+ NHLE seasons?

Cooper Marody: 33.0; 42.3

Tyler Benson: 28.3; 37.2

Joe Gambardella: 14.6; 36.8

Patrick Russell: 15.2; 30.1

Josh Currie: 26.0; 29.7

Kailer Yamamoto: 38.0; 25.6

Kirill Maksimov: 26.0; 25.2

Ryan McLeod: 25.8; 24.7

Raphael Lavoie: 18.6; 23.6

Ostap Safin 19.1; 14.7

Based on the last two seasons, and age, Marody plus Benson and Yamamoto are the most consistent forwards. Gambardella is a personal favourite, who I think owns skills this coaching staff will value, Josh Currie has forced his way into the conversation. I also think Patrick Russell brings enough interesting things (including PK acumen) to be in the conversation.

KHL

Ilya Konovalov’s Yaroslavl Lokomotiv play its first game of the KHL schedule this morning. The preview is here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, with NFL, U.S. Open Tennis and other news breaking. We start at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy will join us from The Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal at 10:20 and Kris Abbott from OddsShark will be by to talk mlb and NFL at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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116 Responses to "LDR’s Video Games"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  2. jtblack says:

    HUNTER. just looking at all the point projections. …. Looks like most fans are erring on the side of caution this season ….

    I hope the Oilers prove us wrong, but looking at the roster, I am not sure how this teams tops 90+ points …

    anyway, as always, I will be cheering like hell for them.

    #LetsGoOilers

  3. McNuge93 says:

    I know this is an Oiler centric site but I’ve tried to start a bit of discussion about the whole cap problems many teams have. From what I can see about 15 or half of teams are right up against the cap or even over. This includes teams like Tampa, Calgary, Winnipeg that are below the cap but have significant RFAs to sign.
    This is unprecedented. Teams with cap space have massive opportunities to pick up players for bargains. Hopefully there aren’t teams willing to take on some hot garbage from the cash strapped teams. The next few weeks are really going to be interesting. I have a feeling some of these RFAs are going to sign on shorter term deals for a little less money and push the problem down the road.
    In a way the McDavid and Drai contracts started this whole issue by pushing up contract values on younger players.

  4. Woogie63 says:

    Would a,

    Manning for Frolik trade made sense for both teams.

    Both players are on 1 year contract,
    Flames need net cap space to sign their RFAs,
    Flames need a 6/7 dman
    Oilers need a winger and secondary scoring.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Ilya Konovalov’s Yaroslavl Lokomotiv play its first game of the KHL schedule this morning. The preview is here.”

    ____________________________

    I’ve had the scoreboard up all morning in anticipation – I wonder if the stream will work? Nothing like having the KHL on in the background to follow, mainly, a just drafted goalie at least two full years from coming to North America.

    Go Konovalov!

  6. McNuge93 says:

    Woogie63,

    That actually makes sense for both teams. And the Flames get a guy who injured McD and would escalate the rivalry more.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    When I first clicked the link, I thought that was a picture of Ales Hemsky – one of my all-time favorites.

    Kailer Yamamoto was a 22nd overall draft pick. He was not a top 5 or even a top 10 pick. In my opinion, while all prospects develop at their own pace, general reasonable expectations for a 22nd overall forward would be draft plus 1 back in junior and draft plus 2 in the AHL (if eligible, sometimes draft plus 2 is back in junior).

    As we know, young, high pedigree and high talent players will generally show very well in training camp and exhibition games but that doesn’t mean much with respect to NHL readiness.

    I believe the organization did a diservice to Kailer by giving him NHL games in each of his first two seasons. Not only do I believe that yo-yoing him across leagues was not good for his development but I believe it gave the fanbase unreasonable expectations on the expected pace of his development.

    Kailer clearly needed real AHL development time and he didn’t really get it last year because he was kept in the NHL (and for too long) and, by once he finally started to gain traction in the AHL (after starting to dominate with 3rd line AHL wingers and finally moved to the top line), the injuries came and the development stopped.

    Kailer was proving to be an elite AHL player, driving offence and creating scoring chances with all sorts of linemates. He did have an issue “finishing” but was creating consistently.

    I believe that, if he was assigned to the AHL last year on day 1, injuries aside, he would have been right up there with Benson and Marody.

    The NHL depth chart is indeed “uneven” and there are spots available for skilled forwards. Due to opportunity of development, as of now, it seems Benson (and Marody) are ahead of Yamamoto, however, if Kailer stays healthy and is assigned and “forgot about” until the all-star break, I posit that he will be right up there with Benson and Marody, fully confident and ready to make an impact.

    Go Kailer!

  8. RISTOOOOO SILTANEN!!!! says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, please put me down for my annual 101.
    One of these years I might get close.

    21 for the JP tie-breaker please.

  9. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Godot is going to have a field day.

    You did this on purpose, LT.

  10. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woogie63:
    Would a,

    Manning for Frolik trade made sense for both teams.

    Both players are on 1 year contract,
    Flames need net cap space to sign their RFAs,
    Flames need a 6/7 dman
    Oilers need a winger and secondary scoring.

    Calgary has Andrew MacDonald on a PTO, can probably sign him for 850K.

    Frolik has value. Manning will be scratched in Bakersfield (again)

  11. Jiminey says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 103 pts

    JP scores 17

  12. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Calgary has Andrew MacDonald on a PTO, can probably sign him for 850K.

    Frolik has value. Manning will be scratched in Bakersfield (again)

    Manning to one of the Thunders?

  13. godot10 says:

    Lowetide broke the first rule of Kailer Club (again). He was thinking about Kailer.

    Please. Do not think about Kailer Yamamoto till January 1st.

  14. Jiminey says:

    jtblack,

    I think they break 90 pts due to the fact that for the first time in many years, they will have NHL talent in the AHL! We are not penciling a Benson or Marody automatically into the lineup like we so often have had to in the past. KH has done a great job of acquiring known NHL talent (not top tier but NHL caliber). When is the last time you can honestly say there was this much competition for roster spots? If all of KH acquisitions and all of the rookies flop, we are an 80 pt team still with our top end talent. I can’t believe they all flop, and if 1 or 2 excel, that will easily get us north of 90!

  15. Truth says:

    hunter1909,

    Oiler Pts: 82

    JP Goals overseas: 26

    Thanks!

  16. Yeti says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide broke the first rule of Kailer Club (again).He was thinking about Kailer.

    Please.Do not think about Kailer Yamamoto till January 1st.

    You may have missed the purpose of a discussion site…?

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reposting a really nice piece of work here by Woodguy from yesterdays post in case you missed it.

    Thank You Darcy.

    New Because OIlers:

    Projecting Tyler Benson’s 19/20 season using 28 guys who scored at very similar rates to Benson in the AHL as 20 year olds.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

  18. maudite says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter:

    87 points

    JP -> 12 goals

  19. LadiesloveSmid says:

    How hilarious is this team to start the season if 97 is out.

    Neal-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Nygard-RNH-Chiasson
    Khaira-Haas-Gagner
    Granlund-Cave-Jurco

    I’m not sure line 1 can outscore a 3rd line. Chiarelli was a freaking magician.

  20. dustrock says:

    LT: Have you heard the new Lana Del Ray? Video Games is an incredible track but I felt she was pretty lightweight, Instagram-life kinda artist.

    New album is an order of magnitude (to me) better than anything she’s ever done, the songs are stronger, the production gets much more into a blissed out take on Joni Mitchell and Carole King in parts. One of the albums of the year.

    Here’s “Video Games” for anyone who doesn’t know the song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE6wxDqdOV0

    I say you the bestest
    Lean in for a big kiss put his favorite perfume on
    Go play your video game

  21. Melman says:

    McNuge93:
    I know this is an Oiler centric site but I’ve tried to start a bit of discussion about the whole cap problems many teams have. From what I can see about 15 or half of teams are right up against the cap or even over. This includes teams like Tampa, Calgary, Winnipeg that are below the cap but have significant RFAs to sign.
    This is unprecedented. Teams with cap spacehave massive opportunities to pick up players for bargains. Hopefully there aren’t teams willing to take on some hot garbage from the cash strapped teams. The next few weeks are really going to be interesting. I have a feeling some of these RFAs are going to sign on shorter term deals for a little less money and push the problem down the road.
    In a way the McDavid and Drai contracts started this whole issue by pushing up contract values on younger players.

    It will indeed be very interesting to see how this plays because so many teams are in the same spot. Timing is everything and we may see some trades (such as Frolik for Manning as an eg.) where team A gives up player value in exchange for cap value (space). There will also be players who simply box themselves into a corner if they hold out for their “fair market value” in salary while the salary pie shrinks. These changes in contracts for young players take a while to filter through the system, and it’s happening at the same time younger players are having a bigger impact on the ice than they previously did.

    If we fiddle with the Jets situation it is a good example: 2 very good RFAs in need of contracts at the same time. Jets have $16M in space, but what if that number was $11M? Does Connor say: “Based on the market and my numbers I should be at $7.5M, but I’m going to take $6M because I don’t want to be left on the sidelines, and they still need to sign Laine… and oh by the way Reider, Phanuef, Vanek and Sheehan are still looking for a place to play”? It’s not about taking a hometown discount, it’s about who grabs their slice of the pie first while there still is some. As it stands right now Reilly is the only Leaf D with a contract for the 2020 season. If you’re Dubas next year wouldn’t you target 3 or 4 similar players for say your 4th and 5th D, give low ball offers and see who signs first?

    Another wrinkle is maybe the strategy of overpaying a little to keep a player that extra year or 2 beyond the initial team control changes. Teams may be better off to keep the cap space because a 21 year old can step in and play, 27 year old UFA vets will be looking for a job, and other teams who have GMs with a PhD from the Peter Chiarelli school of cap space will be forced to dump good players for 10 cents on the dollar.

    Interesting times ahead and I think we’ll look back in 5 years and reflect on the impact of the 2019 summer of RFAs as a turning point.

  22. Munny says:

    Just a reminder…

    If you like what Hunter does, you can help defray his costs through his Paypal here:

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

    Just a buck each would go a long way.

  23. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny,

    Thanks

    The winner gets a Kia Sorento and those things don’t come cheap LoL

  24. Cameron says:

    hunter1909,

    Hey Hunter;

    I’ll take 89 points as the Oilers total

    JP will score 21 goals for his new team

    Thanks!

  25. dustrock says:

    Cameron:
    hunter1909,

    Hey Hunter;

    I’ll take 89 points as the Oilers total

    JP will score 21 goals for his new team

    Thanks!

    I can’t believe you’re picking the OIlers to have a better record than I picked. This is Us.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    McNuge93:
    I know this is an Oiler centric site but I’ve tried to start a bit of discussion about the whole cap problems many teams have. From what I can see about 15 or half of teams are right up against the cap or even over. This includes teams like Tampa, Calgary, Winnipeg that are below the cap but have significant RFAs to sign.
    This is unprecedented. Teams with cap spacehave massive opportunities to pick up players for bargains. Hopefully there aren’t teams willing to take on some hot garbage from the cash strapped teams. The next few weeks are really going to be interesting. I have a feeling some of these RFAs are going to sign on shorter term deals for a little less money and push the problem down the road.
    In a way the McDavid and Drai contracts started this whole issue by pushing up contract values on younger players.

    It’s certainly an interesting situation that we should keep a close eye on. I feel like the recent trend in high RFA contracts has caught some GM’s unawares, and moves will need to be made in order to accomodate. Over in WPG fans are openly speculating how much Laine would return in a trade, and some feel like such a move is a foregone conclusion at this point. I get the impression that Laine and the Jets aren’t close to an agreement, and neither are Marner and the Leafs. This leaves the teams vulnerable, which is great if we can take advantage, but our position to do so isn’t the best.

    One possible outcome? Lets say a team starts into the season with their marquee RW holding out (Rantanen, Laine, Marner, Boeser), they get to late November and (a) haven’t had the on-ice success that they expected and (b) Puljujarvi is tearing the cover off the ball in Liiga, do they make a move for JP? That would certainly put more pressure on the hold-out to get a deal done, and it’ll be for whatever cap space they have left but certainly less than the player had initially wanted. It’s a plausible – if unlikely – outcome.

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    There’s a cap-friendly team that suggests the following trade:

    Nurse + Yamamoto for Kyle Connor

    Now, I’m constantly arguing on this site that any Nurse trade is a bad idea, but this one strikes me as having some potential. I suppose it depends on what Connor will sign for, but something around 7 x $7M would be perfect.

    Interestingly, no WPG fans objected to the trade.

    Thoughts?

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I prefer Ehlers to Connor

  29. Pouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    ArmchairGM,

    I prefer Ehlers to Connor

    +1

  30. Drew says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Godot is going to have a field day.

    You did this on purpose, LT.

    Yea, I’m waiting for Godot!

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    ArmchairGM,

    I prefer Ehlers to Connor

    Pouzar: +1

    Why?

  32. Thorin says:

    dustrock:
    LT: Have you heard the new Lana Del Ray?Video Games is an incredible track but I felt she was pretty lightweight, Instagram-life kinda artist.

    New album is an order of magnitude (to me) better than anything she’s ever done, the songs are stronger, the production gets much more into a blissed out take on Joni Mitchell and Carole King in parts.One of the albums of the year.

    Here’s “Video Games” for anyone who doesn’t know the song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE6wxDqdOV0

    I say you the bestest
    Lean in for a big kiss put his favorite perfume on
    Go play your video game

    I can’t believe “Video Games” was released eight years ago, I remember it like yesterday when I started listening to Lana Del Rey around my middle-schoolers and they thought I was cool because I knew of this cool new indie pop artist with the instagram-inspired vignette videos.

    I haven’t listened to “Norman Fucking Rockwell” yet, glad to hear it really is that good. I’ll have to give it a listen and see if I agree with you (although I’m not exactly a music critic).

  33. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There’s a cap-friendly team that suggests the following trade:

    Nurse + Yamamoto for Kyle Connor

    Now, I’m constantly arguing on this site that any Nurse trade is a bad idea, but this one strikes me as having some potential. I suppose it depends on what Connor will sign for, but something around 7 x $7M would be perfect.

    Interestingly, no WPG fans objected to the trade.

    Thoughts?

    The idea of trading Nurse has been floated around here for a while.

    When we had Sekera, a betting man may have traded Nurse for a Connor or Ehlers (I don’t know which I like better) to end the suffering hoping that Sekera could handle top-four minutes this season.

    With either of those players returning in trade, we’d now have enough talent to ice two top lines.

    Connor – McDavid – Rotation of Kassian / Neal / Haas / X
    Nuge – Draisatl – Rotation of Neal / Haas / Chiasson / X

    or

    Benson – Nuge – Draisatl

    That type of scenario could have made things interesting.

    With the disposition of the Sekera contract, trading Nurse leaves the team very thin on d.

    Also, there are cap issues. Ehlers is likely to be the cheaper cap hit of the two given the current market, but we still have to work to fit him under the cap.

    The other counterpoint is that our RW depth chart, at the professional level, is the worst in the league. Even more so with JP’s trade request. Kailer may or may not make it, but there’s no cavalry coming on the RW for these Oilers.

    Klef – Larsson
    Russel – Benning
    Jones – Persson / Bouchard

    The above would be quite an adventure of a blue line. Yikes.

  34. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Why?

    1. Contract. $6 mil is a heckuva contract and a certain value over KC’s next deal.
    2. Small sample but checkout the WOWYs for each player, namely w/wo Scheifle/Wheeler.

    Ehlers:
    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8477940

    Connor:
    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478398

    Ehlers “may” be a line driver. I will leave that up to the experts to dive into.

  35. jtblack says:

    Jiminey:
    jtblack,

    I think they break 90 pts due to the fact that for the first time in many years, they will have NHL talent in the AHL! We are not penciling a Benson or Marody automatically into the lineup like we so often have had to in the past. KH has done a great job of acquiring known NHL talent (not top tier but NHL caliber). When is the last time you can honestly say there was this much competition for roster spots? If all of KH acquisitions and all of the rookies flop, we are an 80 pt team still with our top end talent. I can’t believe they all flop,and if 1 or 2 excel, that will easily get us north of 90!

    Edm was a 78 point with career seasons from their 3 Top forwards … I don’t see that repeating, especially now with the uncertainty of McD and his timeline ….

    Even if Mcd is back for opening night, most players struggle for 3 – 6 months after a knee injury …

    Time will tell, but I don’t see a scenario where Edm reaches 90 points.

  36. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There’s a cap-friendly team that suggests the following trade:

    Nurse + Yamamoto for Kyle Connor

    Now, I’m constantly arguing on this site that any Nurse trade is a bad idea, but this one strikes me as having some potential. I suppose it depends on what Connor will sign for, but something around 7 x $7M would be perfect.

    Interestingly, no WPG fans objected to the trade.

    Thoughts?

    How does Edmonton make that work Cap wise?

  37. jtblack says:

    IMO, This team will be completely different between now and the beginning of next year.

    CURRENTLY after this season the roster looks like:

    UFA – 9
    RFA – 4
    SIGNED – 10

    Of those 10, 5 are signed for longer than 2 years.

    MCD
    DRAI
    NEAL
    KLEF
    KOSKI

  38. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar: 1. Contract. $6 mil is a heckuva contract and a certain value over KC’s next deal.

    Is it though? Ehlers has scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 in his career while Connor has scored 34 per 82 in his 2 full seasons. We don’t need another distributor, we need a shooter and as such, I think Connor would be worth the extra million bucks it would cost to sign him to a 6 year deal.

    Having said this, I don’t know a lot about either player.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: How does Edmonton make that work Cap wise?

    My guess is Gagner gets traded, but I’m not sure.

  40. texmex says:

    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    ·
    5m
    Tobias Rieder and Devante Smith-Pelly among those invited to @NHLFlames camp on a PTO.

    Flamers love ex oilers

  41. Side says:

    jtblack: Edm was a 78 point with career seasons from their 3 Top forwards …I don’t see that repeating, especially now with the uncertainty of McD and his timeline ….

    Even if Mcd is back for opening night, most players struggle for 3 – 6 months after a knee injury …

    Time will tell, but I don’t see a scenario where Edm reaches 90 points.

    You take into consideration that 3 of their forwards had career high years, but don’t take into consideration that their bottom forwards had career or near career lows.

    Kyle Brodziak – 9 points after a 33 point campaign the year before
    Tobias Rieder – 11 points (0 goals) after a 25 point (12 goal) campaign the year before
    Ty Rattie – production did not carry over from the previous season
    Milan Lucic – I don’t think I need to say more about Milan.

    As much heat as Nicholson deservedly gets for singling out Rieder, I think he still has a point – if Rieder (or any of the other forwards or combination of forwards) scored 12 more goals (which is not unrealistic to expect…) that could have won a few more games.

    And then there are all of the randoms/Chiarelli bets that were inserted into the lineup that did not put up any points at all so essentially, Chiarelli’s bets pretty much all flopped.

    If even some of Holland’s bets show some return, I think the Oilers could squeeze out 6 more wins to go from 78 – 90 points, especially if the goalie duo works out well.

    I guess we just don’t know until the season starts, but to me, the uncertainty means the Oilers could be a 78 point team, they could be a worse team, or they could be a better team. It’s hard to say now and sports are, well, sports.

    After a season of the St. Louis Blues being dead last and literally fighting eachother in practice to winning the Stanley Cup, after witnessing the Las Vegas Golden Knights who no one ever, ever, EVER seriously expected them to make it into the playoffs, let alone the Finals, I am surprised to see people think that the Oilers getting 12 more points this season is an unrealistic scenario…

  42. Professor Q says:

    Are there any more former Flames that Edmonton can sign to a PTO or two?

    https://www.twitter.com/NHLFlames/status/1169320611111297025

    They’re also going for former goon Flyers (Rinaldo). Seems like they’re going ex-Oilers and bulking up to continue dealing annoyance and pain to our skilled players. Tit-for-Tat?

  43. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There’s a cap-friendly team that suggests the following trade:

    Nurse + Yamamoto for Kyle Connor

    Now, I’m constantly arguing on this site that any Nurse trade is a bad idea, but this one strikes me as having some potential. I suppose it depends on what Connor will sign for, but something around 7 x $7M would be perfect.

    Interestingly, no WPG fans objected to the trade.

    Thoughts?

    I’m more in favour of keeping Nurse and riding out this year. Sure, we’re definitely short on wingers (or goal scorers in general), but to me the best way to build a team is with a solid D.

    Connor would look good with McDavid and/or Draisatl though….

  44. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Is it though? Ehlers has scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 in his career while Connor has scored 34 per 82 in his 2 full seasons. We don’t need another distributor, we need a shooter and as such, I think Connor would be worth the extra million bucks it would cost to sign him to a 6 year deal.

    Having said this, I don’t know a lot about either player.

    The last 2 years they have produced virtually the same amount of goals/60.
    Ehlers is actually the superior shot generator on per 60 basis and beats KC in overall GF%.

    Ehlers is the better player even before factoring in KC’s next contract imo.

  45. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There’s a cap-friendly team that suggests the following trade:

    Nurse + Yamamoto for Kyle Connor

    Now, I’m constantly arguing on this site that any Nurse trade is a bad idea, but this one strikes me as having some potential. I suppose it depends on what Connor will sign for, but something around 7 x $7M would be perfect.

    Interestingly, no WPG fans objected to the trade.

    Thoughts?

    The Oilers will have no defense for the next two years at a minimum, and probably three, if you trade Nurse.

    It is a backwards move that probably provokes a trade request from he who cannot be named.

  46. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10: It is a backwards move that probably provokes a trade request from he who cannot be named.

    Yamamoto..?

  47. Jordan says:

    Pouzar: 1. Contract. $6 mil is a heckuva contract and a certain value over KC’s next deal.
    2. Small sample but checkout the WOWYs for each player, namely w/wo Scheifle/Wheeler.

    Ehlers:
    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8477940

    Connor:
    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478398

    Ehlers “may” be a line driver. I will leave that up to the experts to dive into.

    This is not the year to trade Nurse, as we don’t know what we have bubling under yet. Next summer, or the year after would be much better for the Oilers D pipeline timetable.

    I wouldn’t trade Nurse for Kyle Connor straight up. Period. Overpay by a margin. Not quite Chiarelli/Tembellini overpay territory, but right next door.

    I hadn’t seen Ehlers numbers for 2019. His Ex GF and FF% numbers are elite. My valuation of him as a player has changed from seeing those numbers.

    I would trade Nurse for Ehlers straight up, and would be willing to add a sweetener. Would prefer Jesse, but could do Yammer if there was a 2020 2nd coming back too.

    I don’t think it will happen, but would be happy to be wrong.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    MacT loses his KHL coaching debut 5-2.

    I believe Konvalov was in net to take the loss – 35 shots on net.

  49. Bank Shot says:

    Jiminey:
    jtblack,

    I think they break 90 pts due to the fact that for the first time in many years, they will have NHL talent in the AHL! We are not penciling a Benson or Marody automatically into the lineup like we so often have had to in the past. KH has done a great job of acquiring known NHL talent (not top tier but NHL caliber). When is the last time you can honestly say there was this much competition for roster spots? If all of KH acquisitions and all of the rookies flop, we are an 80 pt team still with our top end talent. I can’t believe they all flop,and if 1 or 2 excel, that will easily get us north of 90!

    I hope you are right, but the Oilers don’t have 12 proven NHL calibre forwards to start this season.

    They have 11, and guys like Gagner, Neal, and Brodziak might not be NHL calibre any longer.

    Really, outside of McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH they don’t have anyone else that could be considered a top end third liner, let alone top six.

  50. Pouzar says:

    Jordan: This is not the year to trade Nurse, as we don’t know what we have bubling under yet.Next summer, or the year after would be much better for the Oilers D pipeline timetable.

    I wouldn’t trade Nurse for Kyle Connor straight up.Period.Overpay by a margin.Not quite Chiarelli/Tembellini overpay territory, but right next door.

    I hadn’t seen Ehlers numbers for 2019.His Ex GF and FF% numbers are elite.My valuation of him as a player has changed from seeing those numbers.

    I would trade Nurse for Ehlers straight up, and would be willing to add a sweetener.Would prefer Jesse, but could do Yammer if there was a 2020 2nd coming back too.

    I don’t think it will happen, but would be happy to be wrong.

    I love me some Nurse but wouldn’t be mad.

  51. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    MacT loses his KHL coaching debut 5-2.

    I believe Konvalov was in net to take the loss – 35 shots on net.

    Who’s asking the question?

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: Edm was a 78 point with career seasons from their 3 Top forwards …I don’t see that repeating, especially now with the uncertainty of McD and his timeline ….

    Even if Mcd is back for opening night, most players struggle for 3 – 6 months after a knee injury …

    Time will tell, but I don’t see a scenario where Edm reaches 90 points.

    Also bear in mind that a few WC teams are significantly improved and will be tougher to take points from.

  53. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  54. jtblack says:

    Side: You take into consideration that 3 of their forwards had career high years, but don’t take into consideration that their bottom forwards had career or near career lows.

    Kyle Brodziak – 9 points after a 33 point campaign the year before
    Tobias Rieder – 11 points (0 goals)after a 25 point (12 goal) campaign the year before
    Ty Rattie – production did not carry over from the previous season
    Milan Lucic – I don’t think I need to say more about Milan.

    As much heat as Nicholson deservedly gets for singling out Rieder, I think he still has a point – if Rieder (or any of the other forwards or combination of forwards) scored 12 more goals (which is not unrealistic to expect…) that could have won a few more games.

    And then there are all of the randoms/Chiarelli bets that were inserted into the lineup that did not put up any points at all so essentially, Chiarelli’s bets pretty much all flopped.

    If even some of Holland’s bets show some return, I think the Oilers could squeeze out 6 more wins to go from 78 – 90 points, especially if the goalie duo works out well.

    I guess we just don’t know until the season starts, but to me, the uncertainty means the Oilers could be a 78 point team, they could be a worse team, or they could be a better team.It’s hard to say now and sports are, well, sports.

    After a season of the St. Louis Blues being dead last and literally fighting eachother in practice to winning the Stanley Cup, after witnessing the Las Vegas Golden Knights who no one ever, ever, EVER seriously expected them to make it into the playoffs, let alone the Finals, I am surprised to see people think that the Oilers getting 12 more points this season is anunrealistic scenario…

    Fair points. I don’t see the Holland bets doing much better than last year’s crew overall …. The slight improvement from the bottom players and Neal will be offset by a slight decline from the Top 3 players IMO.

    A lot of people had St.Louis predicted as division winners prior to the season. They should have been a playoff calibre team, and once they got a goalie who could make some saves, they played well….. nobody could have predicted the Cup tho, but the bottom line is that St.Louis had a very deep and talented roster ….

    Vegas was a surprise as the castoffs went all the way … But upon further review, all people quickly realized that Marscheaullt, Smith, Tuch, Karlsson were more than castoffs … Again, nobody could have predicted that season but gong into this year VEGAS has a deep and talented roster …

    When teams have a deep and talented roster, there is no gurantee of success, but the sky is limit if things start clicking ..

    Edmonton to me, has the opposite of a deep and talented line up. They have a Couple Super Stars and a few Good Players combined with a bunch of question marks ….

    In Fairness to your point, 6 wins is not outlandish. So could they hit 90 points? of course they could. If I had to lay my $$$ on the table. I take the under and say not likely. Could happen. But not likely.

  55. HT Joe says:

    texmex:
    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    ·
    5m
    Tobias Rieder and Devante Smith-Pelly among those invited to @NHLFlames camp on a PTO.

    Flamers love ex oilers

    I’m expecting a hat trick against the Oilers this season…

  56. Side says:

    jtblack: Fair points.I don’t see the Holland bets doing much better than last year’s crew overall …. The slight improvement from the bottom players and Neal will be offset by a slight decline from the Top 3 players IMO.

    A lot of people had St.Louis predicted as division winners prior to the season.They should have been a playoff calibre team, and once they got a goalie who could make some saves, they played well….. nobody could have predicted the Cup tho, but the bottom line is that St.Louis had a very deep and talented roster ….

    Vegas was a surprise as the castoffs went all the way … But upon further review, all people quickly realized that Marscheaullt, Smith, Tuch, Karlsson were more than castoffs … Again, nobody could have predicted that season but gong into this year VEGAS has a deep and talented roster …

    When teams have a deep and talented roster, there is no gurantee of success, butthe sky is limit if things start clicking ..

    Edmonton to me, has the opposite of a deep and talented line up.They have a Couple Super Stars and a few Good Players combined with a bunch of question marks ….

    In Fairness to your point, 6 wins is not outlandish. So could they hit 90 points?of course they could. If I had to lay my $$$ on the table.I take the under and say not likely.Could happen. But not likely.

    Agreed with all of the above.

    Personally, when making predictions on the Oilers I like to foolishly refer to the gamber’s fallacy for help.

    “There’s no way that the Oilers can repeat what happened last year (or the last dozen or so years) AGAIN this year! Things HAVE to break right and these bets HAVE to pay off this time, right?!”

    (insert 90 point Oilers prediction for 2019-2020 here)

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Calgary has Andrew MacDonald on a PTO, can probably sign him for 850K.

    Frolik has value. Manning will be scratched in Bakersfield (again)

    Manning could be scratched in Edmonton – kept as the 7th guy so that neither of Jones or Persson (or Lagesson) spend time watching – until Tippett takes the step and play 2 rookies and Russell is traded for $4M in cap space for next off-season (or short-term in season help).

  58. gimme shelter says:

    Tobias Reider has signed a PTO with Calgary. So will the scoring line be Cam Talbot to Milan Lucic who pass’s to Tobias Reider who scores on Mike Smith. Ever since Burger Bob blamed Tobias for Edmonton’s failures,I have had a soft spot for Tobias.

  59. Jethro Tull says:

    gimme shelter:
    Tobias Reider has signed a PTO with Calgary. So will the scoring line be Cam Talbot to Milan Lucic who pass’s to Tobias Reider who scores on Mike Smith. Ever since Burger Bob blamed Tobias for Edmonton’s failures,I have had a soft spot for Tobias.

    Just on the Tobias note;

    What is do people here see as accountability?

    How do people see it enforced or encouraged in the hockey world?

    Some might say that sucking and being called on it is being held accountable. You know what some might say.

    I think it’s a magical hockey narrative buzzword that people chuck out there when they no clue what they’re talking about. But then, I would.

  60. McNuge93 says:

    There is talk on Overdrive and Tim and Sid today about some comment by McDavid’s agent that hints he may not be ready for camp. Some reference to November. Anybody hear what was said. Although I have to say some of those guys are ill-informed. The standins for Tim and Sid (Arash and??/) are both saying McDavid is not even skating yet, only dryland so obviously they are out to lunch.

    Also, the signing by Coyotes of Keller really sets a bottom bar for any of the RFAs. Treliving must be crapping his pants. As soon as season starts if I was a team with cash I’d make an offer sheet.

  61. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: Manning could be scratched in Edmonton – kept as the 7th guy so that neither of Jones or Persson (or Lagesson) spend time watching – until Tippett takes the step and play 2 rookies and Russell is traded for $4M in cap space for next off-season (or short-term in season help).

    Then if the 7th D was actually needed, we would waive Manning and bring up someone capable of playing in the NHL? Then he could watch in the press box in the AHL!

    I’m guessing Manning will get his ice time in the pre-season with the hope that some team will pick him up off of waivers before the season starts. Though the likelihood that the Oilers can divest themselves of Manning that way is probably close to zero.

  62. Professor Q says:

    McNuge93:
    There is talk on Overdrive and Tim and Sid today about some comment by McDavid’s agent that hints he may not be ready for camp. Some reference to November. Anybody hear what was said. Although I have to say some of those guys are ill-informed. The standins for Tim and Sid (Arash and??/) are both saying McDavid is not even skating yet, only dryland so obviously they are out to lunch.

    Also, the signing by Coyotes of Keller really sets a bottom bar for any of the RFAs. Treliving must be crapping his pants. As soon as season starts if I was a team with cash I’d make an offer sheet.

    It’s Tim and Sid. Take what they say with a grain of salt and understand that they’re Shock Jocks who hate Edmonton and want McDavid in Toronto.

    The agent, and Holland, and McDavid, have simply said that they’re taking it easy and wanting to get McDavid up to 100% before he starts playing. He might only play the final preseason game, but he might also miss the first few games of the regular season. They’re taking his rehab seriously, and he’s on track, and doing well.

    Any doubt or something people can twist into doubt about Edmonton will be used in MSM to cast even more shadow upon the Oilers.

    The Clayton Keller signing could be good, but also might not be as good as they think. It depends. Is he a 65-75 point guy? Or is he a 45-55 point guy? Definitely good with the term, however.

  63. v4ance says:

    IF this year is considered a “reset” or lost year, a trade of Nurse for Ehlers makes some sense.

    Chiarelli made many catastrophic mistakes all over the roster but the one thing he did do correctly was stockpile promising defensive prospects. Next year, I believe Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and William Lageson will all require waivers to go down to the AHL and I believe all of them would be claimed if so.

    A trade of Nurse would probably mean Russell moves back to 2LD but if you’re burning a year, why not give at bats to Lagesson and Jones rotating at 3LD to give them the experience on a sheltered 3rd pair. If one or both show they are ready for full time NHL employment, or maybe even 2nd pair minutes, trade Russell and bring up the next young D prospect, whether it’s Bouchard or Samokurov or Broberg in 2021 to be on the 3rd sheltered pair.

    Chiarelli went from a situation of having too many talented forwards and not enough D and transformed the roster in the exact opposite direction. Trading Nurse would be a short term loss but possibly a long term improvement as we’d get a direly needed top 6 forward while opening a spot for a prospect to step up and claim an NHL job. It would add some certainty to our cap situation and make next year’s roster decisions easier.

    I know this looks like the same mistake that previous managements have made, trading a player as they are *just* about to hit their prime without anyone to replace them. I believe we are in the opposite situation where we may have too many *just about ready* prospects who need NHL at bats and a log jam in the NHL roster in front of them.

    The thing is, this can be a midseason trade if Lagesson and or Jones prove themselves ready at 3LD or even 2 LD. If they’re not, you shelve this idea til next year.

    I was just remembering that Chevaldayoff made a similar trade getting Myers for Evander Kane, so there’s some history….

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There’s a cap-friendly team that suggests the following trade:

    Nurse + Yamamoto for Kyle Connor

    Now, I’m constantly arguing on this site that any Nurse trade is a bad idea, but this one strikes me as having some potential. I suppose it depends on what Connor will sign for, but something around 7 x $7M would be perfect.

    Interestingly, no WPG fans objected to the trade.

    Thoughts?

    How would we clear the other $3M or so?

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:

    The other counterpoint is that our RW depth chart, at the professional level, is the worst in the league. Even more so with JP’s trade request. Kailer may or may not make it, but there’s no cavalry coming on the RW for these Oilers.

    Definitely no cavalry coming this year, well, unless Neal is able to bounce back to 15-25 and, honestly, I do think there is solid potential for that – no sure bet, but reasonably possible.

    There are some potential RW options coming, not this year, maybe not even next (maybe though):

    Maksimov
    Lavoie
    Yamamoto
    Puljujarvi

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    We’re a year away from knowing so much more, from having a much better idea of:

    – where Bouchard may end up on the depth chart
    – if Sammy will “make it” and maybe if he still has top pairing potential
    – if Lagesson is looking like an every-day NHL Robyn Regher type player
    – if Benson will be a legit top 6
    – if Marody will be an NHL skill guy or an NHL middle 6 center
    – if Maskimov can score and defend as he does at the pro level
    – will Bear be an NHL player?

    No, not all of these will be “answered” but we’ll have tons more info in just one year.

  67. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: You take into consideration that 3 of their forwards had career high years, but don’t take into consideration that their bottom forwards had career or near career lows.

    Kyle Brodziak – 9 points after a 33 point campaign the year before
    Tobias Rieder – 11 points (0 goals)after a 25 point (12 goal) campaign the year before
    Ty Rattie – production did not carry over from the previous season
    Milan Lucic – I don’t think I need to say more about Milan.

    As much heat as Nicholson deservedly gets for singling out Rieder, I think he still has a point – if Rieder (or any of the other forwards or combination of forwards) scored 12 more goals (which is not unrealistic to expect…) that could have won a few more games.

    And then there are all of the randoms/Chiarelli bets that were inserted into the lineup that did not put up any points at all so essentially, Chiarelli’s bets pretty much all flopped.

    If even some of Holland’s bets show some return, I think the Oilers could squeeze out 6 more wins to go from 78 – 90 points, especially if the goalie duo works out well.

    I guess we just don’t know until the season starts, but to me, the uncertainty means the Oilers could be a 78 point team, they could be a worse team, or they could be a better team.It’s hard to say now and sports are, well, sports.

    After a season of the St. Louis Blues being dead last and literally fighting eachother in practice to winning the Stanley Cup, after witnessing the Las Vegas Golden Knights who no one ever, ever, EVER seriously expected them to make it into the playoffs, let alone the Finals, I am surprised to see people think that the Oilers getting 12 more points this season is anunrealistic scenario…

    Bang on

    Nothing is guaranteed to any team outside of the few current perennial contenders making the playoffs.

    A cohesive team coached to the strengths of the roster can be greater than the sum of its parts, and a stacked team while it lasts can be less.

    Teams now have the cap to contend with. I believe well run teams that contend have a better chance of turning out more helpful players from their drafts because of a few things. More competition for NHL spots, a better structure with more leadership and culture to come into, and more time to develop because roster spots are tough to get.

    But it only takes a couple of flame outs to derail things cap wise (no cheap replacements that are quality) and I can’t think of any team that doesn’t have any those.

    A GM that makes good decisions given a situation, understanding the cap and
    assessing their roster correctly can keep their team close over time, by trading and not losing value, good UFA signings etc, but it’s no foregone conclusion it seems.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: Edm was a 78 point with career seasons from their 3 Top forwards …I don’t see that repeating, especially now with the uncertainty of McD and his timeline ….

    Even if Mcd is back for opening night, most players struggle for 3 – 6 months after a knee injury …

    Time will tell, but I don’t see a scenario where Edm reaches 90 points.

    I expect regression in Leon’s points and goals but I expect both he and Drai to be “better players” overall and increase goal share, which is what really matters.

    Also, last year had:

    – terrible seasons by both Klefbom (injury) and Larsson (just a bad year) – i anticipate both will be substantially better and that is massive

    – terrible seasons by the the incumbent #1 tender (Talbot) and marginal improvement, at best, by the “replacement”. I’m buying the verbal (and numbers) about Koskinen being better when not playing tired. Tippett will see to that as long as Smith is serviceable.

    – total black holes in the bottom six, such as Rieder, Brodziak and, to a less extent, Lucic

    – Lucic who essentially had zero chance at producing at top 6 rates – replaced by Neal who has a reasonable potential to do so.

    ————————

    Not to mention coaching.

    ———————-

    On McDavid, I don’t think that recovery addition relates to his injury – that is essentially for those with major knee surgery such as Sekera.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    texmex:
    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    ·
    5m
    Tobias Rieder and Devante Smith-Pelly among those invited to @NHLFlames camp on a PTO.

    Flamers love ex oilers

    Who are the Flames gooning up to play against? Not that Tobi is a goon.

    For how smart many here touted them as last season seems like they are walking down a well beaten path. Team too wimpy so lost, broken heart.

    We’ll see how that turns out. I think I know.

  70. HT Joe says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Just my two cents, but when there were so many underperforming players, it seemed unfair that Bob was highlighting Reider’s 0 goals, and not the other dozen or so players who maybe should have played better on both sides of the ice. It would have been fairer if he rolled off a list of names…

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Also bear in mind that a few WC teams are significantlyimproved and will be tougher to take points from.

    and others are worse – Winnipeg, maybe Calgary, etc.

  72. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Definitely no cavalry coming this year, well, unless Neal is able to bounce back to 15-25 and, honestly, I do think there is solid potential for that – no sure bet, but reasonably possible.

    There are some potential RW options coming, not this year, maybe not even next (maybe though):

    Maksimov
    Lavoie
    Yamamoto
    Puljujarvi

    True for Lavoie and possibly Maksimov.

    My comment was in the context of the hypothetical trade involving Yamamoto (and Puljuljarvi presumably getting traded.) Given our lack of depth at RW, trading Yamamoto might not be a great idea even if his probability of success has dipped.

    Great that Lavoie has a right-hand shot for sure.

  73. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: Fair points.I don’t see the Holland bets doing much better than last year’s crew overall …. The slight improvement from the bottom players and Neal will be offset by a slight decline from the Top 3 players IMO.

    A lot of people had St.Louis predicted as division winners prior to the season.They should have been a playoff calibre team, and once they got a goalie who could make some saves, they played well….. nobody could have predicted the Cup tho, but the bottom line is that St.Louis had a very deep and talented roster ….

    Vegas was a surprise as the castoffs went all the way … But upon further review, all people quickly realized that Marscheaullt, Smith, Tuch, Karlsson were more than castoffs … Again, nobody could have predicted that season but gong into this year VEGAS has a deep and talented roster …

    When teams have a deep and talented roster, there is no gurantee of success, butthe sky is limit if things start clicking ..

    Edmonton to me, has the opposite of a deep and talented line up.They have a Couple Super Stars and a few Good Players combined with a bunch of question marks ….

    In Fairness to your point, 6 wins is not outlandish. So could they hit 90 points?of course they could. If I had to lay my $$$ on the table.I take the under and say not likely.Could happen. But not likely.

    In both cases it was coaching imo.

    Good rosters but they punch punch above their weights.

  74. Genjutsu says:

    ArmchairGM: Is it though? Ehlers has scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 in his career while Connor has scored 34 per 82 in his 2 full seasons. We don’t need another distributor, we need a shooter and as such, I think Connor would be worth the extra million bucks it would cost to sign him to a 6 year deal.

    Having said this, I don’t know a lot about either player.

    I doubt Kyle Connor signs a 7m x 6 contract. I’d imagine his price point starts at 8.5.

  75. HT Joe says:

    v4ance:
    Chiarelli went from a situation of having too many talented forwards and not enough D and transformed the roster in the exact opposite direction.

    I see what you’re saying, but I would respectfully counter that you can never have too many talented forwards, and for all the promise of the Oilers’ budding defensemen, the blue line still looks to have a long way to go before balance or even average quality.

  76. godot10 says:

    v4ance:
    IF this year is considered a “reset” or lost year, a trade of Nurse for Ehlers makes some sense.

    If you trade Nurse or Klefbom, it won’t be a lost year, it will be a lost two or three years.

    One would set the defense way to far back. The OIlers don’t have anyone even remotely close to replacing those two at the moment.

  77. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’ll be shocked if Nurse is traded.

    The nhl still highly values tough, and if you have a top 3 D that is a fantastic skater, team guy and a significant fighter, who trades that player? Only to employ a marginal knuckle dragger?

    Same reason Kass may hang around for a lesser contract. Fast and tough, no square pucks. What will get him is sobriety or on ice discipline if it happens.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge:
    There is talk on Overdrive and Tim and Sid today about some comment by McDavid’s agent that hints he may not be ready for camp. Some reference to November. Anybody hear what was said. Although I have to say some of those guys are ill-informed. The standins for Tim and Sid (Arash and??/) are both saying McDavid is not even skating yet, only dryland so obviously they are out to lunch.

    Also, the signing by Coyotes of Keller really sets a bottom bar for any of the RFAs. Treliving must be crapping his pants. As soon as season starts if I was a team with cash I’d make an offer sheet.

    Yes, nothing to see – the message is basically the same – time line was for training camp and to be ready to start the season which is still a month away:

    ________________________

    “On Sept. 3, you can’t say whether he’s ready or not to start the season. He has another month before the season starts, and he’s in very good shape. No one is saying (he will be delayed) until November or December. He’s done extremely well so far, and everyone is happy with his progression.”

    Barring any setbacks — “There haven’t been any setbacks,” Jackson confirmed — the rehab schedule is a six-month project. And at the five-month mark, all sides are happy with the condition of McDavid’s knee.

    “Dr. (Dhiren) Naidu and (head athletic trainer) T.D. Forss went into Toronto, went to the Gary Roberts facility and spent some time with Connor. They saw Connor, examined him and were very pleased with his progress,” said Oilers general manager Ken Holland.

    “Between the Oilers training staff and medical team, working together with the team Jeff Jackson has put together for Connor, certainly there are some top-notch people.

    “Any decisions that are made on the timeline with Connor, it’s not going to be one person making them.”

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    EhTeam: Then if the 7th D was actually needed, we would waive Manning and bring up someone capable of playing in the NHL?Then he could watch in the press box in the AHL!

    This is the thought process.

  80. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Who here remembers when Woodguy said that Gunnarson was the type of D that helps a team win Cups?

  81. pts2pndr says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide broke the first rule of Kailer Club (again).He was thinking about Kailer.

    Please.Do not think about Kailer Yamamoto till January 1st.

    What year?

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy said the opposite about Gunarsson IIRC.

    My point is happy people do things better.

    The role players the Oilers have are better than last season, it’s up to Tip to get them going, Connor or no Connor.

    Players put into the right spot can overachieve.

  83. Melvis says:

    I’m not going to quibble with OP’s post regarding CMD’s return, however I was wondering about Fan Day on Sept.14. It’s free and there’s an open practice between noon and 1:30. How important is it Connor shows up in 9 days?

  84. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Is it though? Ehlers has scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 in his career while Connor has scored 34 per 82 in his 2 full seasons. We don’t need another distributor, we need a shooter and as such, I think Connor would be worth the extra million bucks it would cost to sign him to a 6 year deal.

    Having said this, I don’t know a lot about either player.

    I think it is a deal worth thinking about. Team strength is LD. If it was an Eastern conference team it would be enticing. We have Lagesson, Jones, Samorukov and our latest first round draft choice in the wings with Russel to hold down the fort for a year. I do not think Holland does that deal until such time as he is comfortable with his evaluation of current assets.

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    Genjutsu: I doubt Kyle Connor signs a 7m x 6 contract. I’d imagine his price point starts at 8.5.

    It shouldn’t, according to Evolving Wild.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy:
    Woodguy said the opposite about Gunarsson IIRC.

    My point is happy people do thingsbetter.

    The role players the Oilers have are better than last season, it’s up to Tip to get them going,Connor or no Connor.

    Players put into the right spot can overachieve.

    Tippett has indeed expressed that is what of his top attributes – getting the most out of players by putting them in a position to succeed.

    Then again, last offseason (mid-season for Hitch):

    – Yawney said the D would move the puck up the ice quicker
    – McLellan said he would have more line continuity
    – Hitchcock said he would fix Puljujarvi

  87. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is the thought process.

    Given the current situation I think it is reasonable to expect the team to break camp with 13 forwards 8 defensemen and two goal tenders.

  88. Genjutsu says:

    ArmchairGM: It shouldn’t, according to Evolving Wild.

    I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out

  89. Gerta Rauss says:

    Marleau will not be returning to the Sharks this year but still wants to play in the NHL

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/agent-marleau-wont-play-for-sharks-this-season/ar-AAGOl8W?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

  90. Georgexs says:

    Let’s compare the season-to-season correlation of some offensive metrics for forwards who have played at least 20 games in each consecutive season:

    5v5 P60, 5v5 Pts, 5v5 Pts/GP, Total P60, Total Pts, Total Pts/GP

    If 5v5 P60 is the best gauge of a forward’s performance and potential, then, ideally, it should yield a relatively high season-to-season correlation when compared to the other metrics. Knowing a forward’s 5v5 P60 in one season should give us a pretty good idea how they’ll perform in the next season. So let’s see how 5v5 P60 does against the alternatives.

    season, 5v5 P60, 5v5 Pts, 5v5 Pts/GP, Total P60, Total Pts, Total Pts/GP

    2007, 0.51, 0.67, 0.67, 0.74, 0.79, 0.83
    2008, 0.56, 0.67, 0.71, 0.73, 0.78, 0.84
    2009, 0.54, 0.64, 0.70, 0.72, 0.75, 0.82
    2010, 0.54, 0.63, 0.69, 0.68, 0.74, 0.81
    2011, 0.54, 0.63, 0.68, 0.70, 0.76, 0.82
    2012, 0.51, 0.64, 0.66, 0.69, 0.74, 0.80
    2013, 0.53, 0.70, 0.69, 0.69, 0.79, 0.82
    2014, 0.51, 0.62, 0.65, 0.72, 0.76, 0.81
    2015, 0.49, 0.59, 0.64, 0.69, 0.73, 0.79
    2016, 0.42, 0.62, 0.60, 0.67, 0.75, 0.79
    2017, 0.53, 0.67, 0.69, 0.74, 0.80, 0.83

    I know. A lot of numbers. Concentrate on the second column in each row and scan across.

    Well. Of all the metrics, 5v5 P60 has the lowest season-to-season correlation. In EVERY season.

    If you made a habit of using 5v5 P60 to set expectations for a forward’s offensive performance in an upcoming season (or to grade his performance in a given season), you’d be using the noisiest and least reliable and reproducible of the metrics available to you. You may think you’re capturing the essence of offensive skill. But, by the correlations, you’ll find that forwards have a hard time consistently demonstrating this skill. The season-to-season results are simply too random. When you strip away other parts of the game and hone in on 5v5 scoring rates as the core of the game, you get closer to random than to skill.

    If you stop and think about how 5v5 P60 is calculated and you compare it to the other metrics, you can start to see why.

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Marleau will not be returning to the Sharks this year but still wants to play in the NHL

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/agent-marleau-wont-play-for-sharks-this-season/ar-AAGOl8W?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

    But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
    Dumb.

  92. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
    Dumb.

    They didn’t rush anything and can still sign Marleau.

  93. leadfarmer says:

    Genjutsu: I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out

    The smart bet is to pay a little extra for those few extra years right now. Cap will be flat next year as they try to get escrow under control. But new tv contract will increase the cap. Guys like Connor and Drai are going to regret taking those long contracts which is the only smart thing Chia did. I’m guessing in 5 years Mcdavid contract will be outside top 10 in league

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
    Dumb.

    Yes because waiting for Marleau to get rejected by all the teams he wants to play for would have been such a better plan

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Yes because waiting for Marleau to get rejected by all the teams he wants to play for would have been such a better plan

    A much better plan.

  96. Gerta Rauss says:

    Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
    Dumb.

    I wouldn’t have signed Chiasson on July 1, that’s for sure

    I’m not sure how much Marleau would be expecting at this point

    Kenny’s got a little walking around money, you’d think a signed contract right now would carry a little weight, certainly more than a PTO, or waiting…

    Dutchie will find him a home at the trade deadline if Patty wants a playoff run

  97. jp says:

    jtblack: Fair points. I don’t see the Holland bets doing much better than last year’s crew overall …. The slight improvement from the bottom players and Neal will be offset by a slight decline from the Top 3 players IMO.

    https://oilersnation.com/2019/07/05/how-will-the-edmonton-oilers-improve-part-two/

  98. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
    Dumb.

    Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol

    Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine. 😛

  99. Johnny skid says:

    Bank Shot: Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol

    Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine.

    don’t forget about Loui Eriksson.

  100. Glovjuice says:

    Johnny skid: don’t forget about Loui Eriksson.

    Good deal that Seguin trade for him.

  101. JimmyV1965 says:

    I agree with Godot. Nurse and Klef should be untouchable. Both are just entering their prime. If you delete them from the roster, you’re now waiting for the kids to mature, but doing it without the benefit of some older vets to support them. So our defence gets younger at the expense of guys in their prime, rather than guys exiting their prime. I would love to get Ehlers or Connor, but not at the price of Nurse or Klef.

  102. Munny says:

    I like the idea of a Marleau-Gegner-Kassian 3rd line. Especially if they can muck a lot of faceoffs.

    Problem is, it likely moves Chiasson up to the 2nd line, because it’s Archibald or him. But if they can go Nygard at 2L maybe they’ll have enough speed to keep their heads above water. Still pretty meh for O though.

  103. CallighenMan says:

    Bank Shot: Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol

    Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine. 😛

    DSF is always comedy gold. Intelligent? not so much…

  104. v4ance says:

    Bruce Dowbiggin on the Rogers slash and burn of it’s on air talent:

    http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com/i-dont-like-mondays/2019/9/2/pwo3dh00b0sjoox4lki68i2s9ehw3j

    Audacious. That’s perhaps the best word to describe Rogers Communications attempt to supplant CBC and TSN as the go-to network for the NHL in Canada in 2013. It committed $ 5.2 billion over twelve years to buy national rights to Hockey Night in Canada and the rest of the TV and digital product on offer from the league.

    Disastrous. That’s probably the best word to describe the outcome of the gamble. With the announcement the past few weeks that a significant slice of the on-air talent was being let go for economic reasons, it’s now clear that Rogers’ plans— shepherded by then-Rogers Media president Keith Pelley and his 2IC Scott Moore— are an embarrassing failure.

    ***

    Last summer Rogers brass summoned Moore for a showdown. Informing him that 80 percent of their costs were tied up in properties. They demanded he cut salaries and payroll he’d generously awarded staff. The man who’d been the face of the deal since Pelley left for the European PGA Tour in 2016 told his bosses that he was a builder, not a tear-down guy.

    With that Moore walked off to enjoy himself in a long-delayed holiday, leaving the people he’d recruited to fend for themselves. (Moore has subsequently found a new gig working with LeBron James.) Everyone who remained was going to be asked to tighten their belt, some by as much as 20 percent on their contracts.

    Other news, Pierre McGuire demoted at NBC and replaced by Brian Boucher:

    https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/nbc-replacing-pierre-mcguire-on-national-nhl-broadcasts-report

    Per impeccable source, Pierre McGuire has been removed from NBC Sports’ No. 1 hockey team, to be replaced by Brian Boucher.— Rick Carpiniello (@RickCarpiniello) September 4, 2019

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    Genjutsu: I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out

    Keller’s contract is about $600k above where EW had it, which isn’t unreasonable when you consider it doesn’t start until next year, meaning it’s probably perfectly accurate based on percentage of cap. You’re pegging Connor’s at $2.5M more than EW.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM: Keller’s contract is about $600k above where EW had it, which isn’t unreasonable when you consider it doesn’t start until next year, meaning it’s probably perfectly accurate based on percentage of cap. You’re pegging Connor’s at $2.5M more than EW.

    Now that I’ve had a chance to check the numbers… based on an $83.5M cap next year, Keller’s contract works out to $548k more than EW had valued him at this summer.

    Connor is valued at $6.815M on a 6 year deal, Keller’s contract doesn’t give him a value bump of $1.685M. On an 8-year contract, Connor is estimated to be worth $7.161M, so something in the $7 – 7.5M range is reasonable.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    Gerta Rauss: I wouldn’t have signed Chiasson on July 1, that’s for sure

    I’m not sure how much Marleau would be expecting at this point

    Kenny’s got a little walking around money, you’d think a signed contract right now would carry a little weight, certainly more than a PTO, or waiting…

    Dutchie will find him a home at the trade deadline if Patty wants a playoff run

    I agree with all of this. If Patty will sign for $1M, it lets the kids play big minutes in Bakersfield until February, whereupon we rid ourselves of every expiring contract and then test drive the young talent. And load up on mid-round picks.

  108. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: If you trade Nurse or Klefbom, it won’t be a lost year, it will be a lost two or three years.

    One would set the defense way to far back.The OIlers don’t have anyone even remotely close to replacing those two at the moment.

    I agree. Only trade incumbents when they’ve been superceded by the youts, don’t trade them to make room for unproven prospects. With any luck 2 of the older crew (Jones, Bear, Persson and Lagesson) will prove capable of handling 3rd pairing minutes every day, making Russell expendable next summer. I don’t see any of these guys being plus top-4 defenders, I think we have to wait for the next wave for those: Bouchard, Samorukov and Broberg. Even then, I highly doubt any of them will have proved enough by next June to trade Nurse, Klefbom or Larsson – the only possibility here is that Bouchard dominates AHL, gets 30+ NHL games and knocks Benning out of a top-4 spot.

    To reiterate, even if all prospects advance well this season, the only incumbents I see being made redundant are Russell and Benning. The reason I re-posted the trade suggestion was because there are a ton of young RFA forwards who may be available this summer and very few the next. The following summer, 2021, is probably the earliest such a trade (D for forward) could be workable for the Oilers, but the pickings are slim then too.

    You either strike now or you build organically, IMO. Of course, there’s always the possibility of making that deal now and the targeting a UFA next summer to replace Nurse, so you are only losing 1 year.

  109. ArmchairGM says:

    Capfriendly has Hayden Hawkey on the Oilers reserve list still, with a Must Sign By date of August 15, 2020. I had thought we lost him this summer, did the eligibility extend because he’s doing another year of college?

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rookies report today. Champions league resumes – I think both Karpat and Skelefeeta play.

    We’re getting there.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    We lost Hawkey’s rights this past August.

    He is attending an NHL camp on a PTO – can’t remember which team. I think an eastern team. Washington maybe.

  112. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We lost Hawkey’s rights this past August.

    He is attending an NHL camp on a PTO – can’t remember which team. I think an eastern team.Washington maybe.

    That’s what I thought, I was surprised to see him on the Oilers reserve list still. And a quick Google search indicates that your memory is correct: Washington it is.

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan: This is not the year to trade Nurse, as we don’t know what we have bubling under yet.Next summer, or the year after would be much better for the Oilers D pipeline timetable.

    I wouldn’t trade Nurse for Kyle Connor straight up.Period.Overpay by a margin.Not quite Chiarelli/Tembellini overpay territory, but right next door.

    I hadn’t seen Ehlers numbers for 2019.His Ex GF and FF% numbers are elite.My valuation of him as a player has changed from seeing those numbers.

    I would trade Nurse for Ehlers straight up, and would be willing to add a sweetener.Would prefer Jesse, but could do Yammer if there was a 2020 2nd coming back too.

    I don’t think it will happen, but would be happy to be wrong.

    The trouble is the opportunities this summer won’t be available next summer or the one after.

    What about Laine? There are quite a few Twitter rumors that Chevy is talking to teams about Laine. Where does he rank vs Ehlers and Connor?

  114. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, nothing to see – the message is basically the same – time line was for training camp and to be ready to start the season which is still a month away:

    ________________________

    “On Sept. 3, you can’t say whether he’s ready or not to start the season. He has another month before the season starts, and he’s in very good shape. No one is saying (he will be delayed) until November or December. He’s done extremely well so far, and everyone is happy with his progression.”

    Barring any setbacks — “There haven’t been any setbacks,” Jackson confirmed — the rehab schedule is a six-month project. And at the five-month mark, all sides are happy with the condition of McDavid’s knee.

    “Dr. (Dhiren) Naidu and (head athletic trainer) T.D. Forss went into Toronto, went to the Gary Roberts facility and spent some time with Connor. They saw Connor, examined him and were very pleased with his progress,” said Oilers general manager Ken Holland.

    “Between the Oilers training staff and medical team, working together with the team Jeff Jackson has put together for Connor, certainly there are some top-notch people.

    “Any decisions that are made on the timeline with Connor, it’s not going to be one person making them.”

    Actually yes it will be one person, Connor.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: Actually yes it will be one person, Connor.

    I believe the doctor actually will have the “official” say, no?

  116. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: The trouble is the opportunities this summer won’t be available next summer or the one after.

    What about Laine? There are quite a few Twitter rumors that Chevy is talking to teams about Laine. Where does he rank vs Ehlers and Connor?

    There are lots of ELC cap controlled snipers in the top ten of next years draft. That is why teams jumped on D at the draft this year. The better strategy to being lousy this year is to keep Nurse and Klefbom, and draft a high end forward next summer, than to trade for an already highly paid forward and gut the defense, which would also result in a lousy season.

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