Ethan Bear. Patrick Russell. Sam Gagner. Caleb Jones. Kailer Yamamoto. William Lagesson. In the 40 years of the Edmonton Oilers as an NHL franchise, finding solutions to real problems inside the high skill positions from the farm is a fairly rare item. Condors recalls have played in 169 games this season (Bear and Russell made the big club out of camp so I’m cheating a little). The kicker? There’s more to come.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
- New Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- New Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
- Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
CONDORS 2019-20
Brandon Manning has been suspended and the club ran multiple lines in the last game because they dressed eight blue, so it’s anyone’s guess what we’ll see tonight.
Manning broke AHL rule 23.9, for use of a racial slur against an opponent. On MLK day.
Stuart Skinner is having an interesting January. In seven games, he’s 3-3-0 (the team is 0-2-1 without him) with a goals against average of 2.81 and a save percentage of .918. I don’t know that he’s winning an NHL job, but he sure looks like the best option.
Evan Bouchard is running strong now, in 12 games since Christmas he is 7-6 in even strength goal differential, 28 shots, four goals and four assists. Edmonton may not make room for him until the summer, so we may not see him this season in Edmonton.
Tyler Benson might be playing his final AHL games this week. I don’t think that’s likely, but it’s possible. One thing the organization may be looking for this year is a spike in goals. Benson’s shot rate in his final junior season (27 goals on 232 shots in 58 games) was four per game, with a shooting percentage of 11.6. In the AHL as a rookie in 2018-19, he had 173 shots in 68 games as a rookie (2.54 per game) with an 8.7 shooting percentage. This season, he has 90 shots in 39 games (2.31 per game) and a 8.9 shooting percentage.
If Benson is recalled, and has enough success to stay (my reasonable expectations had him playing 34 NHL games this season, scoring five goals and seven assists), that might change the deadline shopping list.
The discerning Condors/Oilers fan will now be wondering about next season. With Bear, Jones, Yamamoto, Lagesson and Benson gone, who is going to step up? Among the blue, I think Bouchard will probably be in the NHL next season. So the prospect defensemen in Bakersfield will be Dmitri Samorukov, Logan Day, Filip Berglund and possibly Philip Broberg. Maybe you’ll see Markus Niemelainen or Philip Kemp as well.
Forwards? Raphael Lavoie will turn pro and is likely to earn a feature role ala Benson as a rookie. Expect increased role in the AHL for both Kirill Maksimov and Ostap Safin, with Ryan McLeod becoming a more prominent player as well. I’d also bet on some college and CHL free-agent signings this spring.
I’m honestly not sure where to start with this story. There are so many angles to it. First, no one in the local or national media got the story, over 290 days and nights. That meant a large number of people who are close to Connor McDavid didn’t say a word about it to anyone outside the internal group. That is rare.
People will jump on the media for not getting this story early, and I get that, but let’s remember we’re dealing with some kind of Superman here. Based on Ryan Rishaug’s words above, and what we already know, McDavid had to make a quick decision about the rest of his life, bet on healing, worked like dammit to get it done and arrived in time to make opening night and oh by the way lead the league in scoring! Holy hell! For me, that’s the story. McDavid recovered quickly enough to camouflage the extent of the injury. I have 1/100 of the contacts that someone like Rishaug would have and I asked, believe me. Not a word. At some level, I’m impressed by the loyalty. In today’s world, it’s unique. On another level, what are they going to call the Super Hero movie they make about McDavid?
LARRY WALKER
The baseball hall of fame means a lot, mostly because it’s so damned difficult to get in. Larry Walker’s induction into the Hall will represent ‘some sweet day’ for a lot of people.
The one guy I had hoped would live to see the day, aside from Walker, is Jim Fanning. I’ve been damned hard on Fanning over many years, his taking over the Expos in 1981 (from Dick Williams) was ill-advised in my opinion.
However, it was Fanning who said that if he could ever find a Canadian boy who could flourish for the Expos, he’d had accomplished a goal that began with Montreal’s expansion. He was saying that around the time color commentator Duke Snider was saying the Expos needed a lefty bat with “hair on his ass” who could hit in the heart of the order.
Larry Walker was all of those things and he made it to the hall despite losing a year to injury in winter ball. The first MLB game I saw from him, he walked three times and hit a double. Buck Rodgers had him sixth in the order.
I’m pleased as punch Larry Walker made it. Music!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
On the show today, at 10 this morning, TSN1260: We’ll talk McDavid, Walker and Manning with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll also chat with Jeff Krushell about Walker and MLB’s winter, plus Joe Osborne from OddsShark pops in with NFL news and Super Bowl prop bets to make your mind buzz. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
me too. Wasn’t the bridgekeeper played by Terry Gilliam? IMDB says yes. Still a great line though.
“He’s NOT the Messiah, he’s a very naughty boy!
Not sure but both are definitely scorers with good shots.
I’m not as familiar with Panarin’s game but Kane is good from the sides of the ice. He’s not a real backchecking savant or anything.
Ya maybe Benson just sees the ice better from the sides. Not sure, Haven’t seen him enough tbh
Of course that’s not the argument. Why are you being so black and white?
Coors Field inflates hits and runs. It’s a fact. Why wouldn’t the Hall of Fame selection committee take that into account when evaluating a players career? I’ve never said Walker shouldn’t have gotten in.
Saying Colorado Rockies hitters are full value for their hitting numbers is like saying Zack Kassian is full value for his offense playing with McDavid.
Why are not Kane and Panarin and Kucherov centres?
So Colorado Rockies players are not eligible for the Hall of Fame. Is that the argument? MLB put a team there.
Wasn’t it the Canucks that said in pre-season , “they won’t call them all, so keep doing it”? I think most teams use that philosophy.
Correct, Murray is an RFA. He posted a .919 Sv% last year (above his career average), what was negative about that?
I’ve been holding onto Hotlby in my hockey pool for a couple years and I think I’m about to let him go.
T. Jarry
P. Francouz
B. Holtby(R)
I. Samsonov(R)
D. Kuemper(I)
That’s my goalie roster and I have to let someone go now that Kuemper is back from injury. The young guys are kinda unproven but they’re killing it roght now and it’s a keeper league so they may be the future elite to hold onto.
I was going to include Murray, but I believe he is a RFA, so there is a good chance the team can keep him and re-sign him at a relatively good cost given his play in the last 2 years. Ullmark is in a similar situation as a RFA.
But Holtby might be looking for a new lease on things and to come home and play with McDavid, Draisaitl, Holland, Tippett might look like a pretty good start. Maybe a hometown (couple bad years) discount?
Good point, I think Holtby would be fine in a tandem situation although I have no evidence for this. I know he’s overworked though: in the 5 seasons prior to this one he averaged 77 GP, including playoffs!! That’s INSANE. This year he’s on pace to play 55 regular season games, although I doubt he hits that number with Samsonov playing like he is.
I’d also be inquiring about Georgiev and Murray – especially Murray. People are down on him this year in a big way, but when you analyse his play he was only off for about 8 games; the rest of the time he’s been well above average. Plus, of course, several Cups. And he’s only 25. If I could get him on a $4M x 5 year contract this summer I’d do it in a heartbeat. Go long rather than high – he just might go for it.
I’ll copy this over when today’s post goes up but I’m wondering if anyone thinks the Oilers should be interested in any of the goalies who will be UFAs this summer.
Holtby (Alberta/Sask born) 30yrs, .897 this season
Lehner 28yrs, .922
Markstrom 30yrs, .916
Francouz, 30yrs, .924
Holtby might be a promising reclamation project. Might he find his way back home?
Does anyone have any intel on Lavoie? Just going through hockeydb and noticed that he’s scored 6-5-11 in the six games since he’s been traded to Chicoutimi. Three of those points came on the PP, 1 goal and 2 assists.
Chicoutimi was a top team prior to the trade, but they weren’t a particularly high scoring team. Since the trade they’ve gone 6-0-0 and outscored their opponents 39 – 20. That’s 6.5 GF and 3.33 GA… prior to the trade they were averaging 3.81 GF and 2.84 GA.
Also acquired recently by Chicoutimi:
Dawson Mercer, RHC: 3, 0-5-5 since trade, 2020 draft eligible
Felix Bibeau, LHC: 13, 3-11-14, NYI 2019 6th round
Karl Boudrais, LHD: 6, 2-4-6, undrafted 2018 eligible
Patrick Kyte, LHD: 8, 4-2-6, undrafted 2017 eligible
This is really great stuff.
Encouraging on McLeod and such good information more generally. Thank you.
I agree with most of that.
I wouldn’t say NEED a 3C and 1LW, though it would be ideal..
I was looking through Hockeydb drafts by team
I was wondering how often teams take goalies and I saw how many whiffs there are in drafting goalies (as there are at any position). So many. It’s hard to get a hit on a goalie.
I got to thinking, where do the few goalies that actually make it come from? How are the Oilers going to get a goalie or two for the future?
Of the 56 goalies that have played in 15 or more games this season:
10 (17.9%) were drafted in the 1st round
11 (19.6%) were drafted in the 2nd
10 (17.9%) in round 3
5 (8.9%) in round 4
3 (5.4%) in round 5
3 (5.4%) in round 6
2 (3.6%) in round 7
1 in round 8
2 in round 9
9 (16.1%) undrafted
Of the 33 goalies who have played in at least 25 games (starters or close to):
6 (18.2%) drafted in round 1
8 (24.2%) round 2
6 round 3
3 round 4
3 round 5
2 round 6
1 round 7
1 round 8
3 undrafted
I don’t have time now but it would be good to count how many draft picks were spent on goalies in each round and then calculate the hit rate (and whiff rate) for each round
of the 331 FW’s that have played in 35 games or more this season:
158 (47.7%) were first round picks
47 (14.2%) 2nd round
35 (10.6%) 3rd round
23 (6.9%) 4th round
16 (4.8%) 5th round
15 (4.5%) 6th round
8 (2.4%) 7th round
29 (8.8%) undrafted
Are first round picks important?
Yes, yes they are.
Of the 162 Defencemen that have played in at least 35 games this year:
64 (39.5%) drafted in first round
34 (21%) 2nd rounders
16 (9.9%) 3rd round
13 (8%) 4th round
9 (5.6%) 5th round
7 (4.3%) 6th round
4 (2.5%) 7th round
15 (9.3%) undrafted
Significantly higher % of 2nd rounders than for FW’s
Again I’d like to see the # of draft picks used on each position to give more info here. As in is there a good hit rate on 2nd round D men or are more % of Dmen picks used in the 2nd and not as many in the 1st?
Appears that there is value in drafting goalies in the 3rd round
Maybe a good template to draft by would be this:
1st round: FW
2nd round: D
3rd round: G
From 2003-2014 there were 265 Goalies drafted. Of those
6.4% were in the 1st round
13.6% in the 2nd
15.5% in the 3rd
13.6% in the 4th
16.6% in the 5th
18.9% in the 6th
15.5% in the 7th
I wonder why Benson isn’t a C
I know he’s good along the boards but traditionally the puck distributor is the Center and you’d like your wingers to have good shots – score.
He’s definitely more a disher than a scorer
He’s got a good brain
How’s his defensive game?
I know I’m late to the discussion but I wanna make a few points.
Was anyone’s summer enjoyment damaged in any way by the lack of information on the extent of McDavid’s injury or the subsequent rehab?
I think the resounding answer is no.
***
Do we want/need wall to wall tabloid coverage of our sports icons to the point they feel suffocated?
I know there’s a range here but I fall on the side that says we don’t need to know every intimate detail of an athlete’s life outside of the playing field. I cheer for my team and my heros on that team and when they’re outside of the rink, I feel they should have the privacy to live their lives without having to feel like they’re in a fishbowl.
The extreme case is the treatment of Prince Harry and Princess Megan. As royals, they have had every part of their lives intruded upon. Harry lived through the fact that paparazzi press literally hounded his mother to death in a Paris underpass. Now they have to cope with illegal intrusions like phone tapping and email hacking such that even intimate details that they would never reveal have been splashed across the headlines as everyone digs for the next “scoop”. As much as I am curious, there should be no place in the world for that kind of scrutiny and no one should have to live their lives under such a magnifying glass.
***
After McDavid got injured, he was in a tough spot physically and mentally. He had to make a decision that could ruin or restart his career within a matter of days. At 22, knowing there’s a possibility that your NHL days could be severely curtailed had to be a scary thought. Both options, surgery or strenuous rehab, were going to lead to uncertain outcomes. I think he was in the same mindset and situation as Bobby Orr was when his knee was damaged.
Once he chose the path of rehab, he and his support group might have been scared of the endgame but they collectively stood behind him. I feel that positive group mindset is what helped him come back at nearly 100% in such a short time. Not allowing the press to report on the details helped to limit any negative thoughts or doubts to intrude into the process.
I don’t blame any of the press for not getting the scoop. As a poster said, McDavid’s inner circle showed staunch loyalty to keep all the info under wraps. It would have been an ego boost to share or leak the news of McDavid’s injury but it would have wounded Conner emotionally knowing that he couldn’t trust someone in his group and it might have set back his recovery. You can’t become or stay the best in the world without having some excellent people around you and it’s obvious Conner has chosen his allies well.
I don’t want to live in a world where my desire to have the latest news overrides McDavid’s right to keep the things he wants private, private. I don’t want to drive him out of Edmonton with blanket coverage, like the media has driven Harry and Megan out of Britain. I want him to be happy, be positive, be in Edmonton for his entire career and win multiple cups. If that means i don’t hear the scary news on his rehab the instant he knows, I’m okay with that. Especially if it contributes to his health, well being and speeds his recovery…
You are in great shape if Nygard Sheahan and Archie is your 4th line. They should all be affordable next year and slide right into that role. Haas seems a good 13th forward and he might really benefit from a summer training the way he now knows is necessary.
I could see Benson and Chaser/Neal (would be good to lose one this summer) on the 3rd line with a new and faster center. Pageau perfect but likely too expensive to obtain or retain.
2nd line seems good and top line needs a LW.
Bottom 6 was a disaster last year but it’s coming around with 2nd and 4th lines now looking pretty good. Need a 3C and top line LW
Chevy has always been like this. There is a time for patience and a time to act. Chevy only has the patience part figured out imo.
I guess it’s an argument against Walker (really just an acknowledgement that he benefited more than most from his home ball park).
I’m not sure what computer Plate Ump is – do you mean non-human/unbiased umpires? If so that has next to nothing to do with it. Coors is cavernous (to prevent everything from being a homerun) so BA benefits a ton for basically anyone who plays there.
It could have something to do with his 15-1-0-1 line in the last month plus.
I’d have no issue bringing him back but he’s not exactly forcing the issue either.
Is this an arguement against Walker or a justification for computer Plate Ump.
Trade a forward with the same cap hit for a D let’s say Larsson for Ehlers something along those lines. If your going to cry about spilled milk and not make the playoffs because of Buff it’s time to be terminated.
If Holland was in year 3 of his contract these trades would be happening.
rover/dman sloting in FWd evg/60 levels
1 (31st) 1.28, no Dmen
2 (62nd) 1.14, none
3 (93rd) 1.01, none
4 (124th) .93, none
5 (155th) .83, D. Hamilton .86
6 (186th) .77, none
7 (217th) .72, Werenski .73, Carlson .72
8 (248th) .65, Deangelo .70, Makar .70, graves
9 (279th) .58 none josi .63
————————- 7 dmen above 4th line evg/60
10 (310th) .50, Weber .57, Hrocek .55, Pietrangelo .52, Pysyk .52, Letang .50, Skje .5
11 (341st) .42, 12 Dmen
12 (372nd) .35, 15 Dmen
———————— 33 dmen/Rovers 4th line fwd production.
Which means 40 Dmen are better than PB fwd evg production rate.
Elite open shot targeters drive EVG production by their targeting and their zone presence drawing the defence.
Peluso from behind the goal line banks one in off the d-man to make it 5-0.
For his career he hit .348 at home and .278 on the road. There’s supposed to be some kind of split but it’s kinda fair to dock him a little for the park he played the most games in.
Maksimov with an empty netter on a solid play from Esposito.
Can’t disagree with that assessment of the tending prospect situation and, yes, I agree, Skinner is at least a one full year of AHL play away from the NHL.
What I like is that Konovalov needs to be signed in the same off-season that the ELCs of both Wells and Skinner come due so the org will get to decide which goalie(s) they want to sign and keep – as of now, its looking like Konovalov and Skinner.
Feel free to watch the highlight of the Hebig goal I posted a bit earlier to see what good defenseman, even rovers, have to do with GF.
OriginalPouzar,
Nice to see him bring his A-game outside of the playoffs, and for a bit of a stretch lately.
A big step for him along his development path.
Next step: consistency.
Happy to discuss if you are able to so in an adult and respectful manner.
Please let me know if you are able (and willing) to do so.
Skinner has himself 31 saves half way through the 3rd.
He makes another solid save on a HDSC, the play goes the other way and Peluso with a Drai-like sauce pass on a 2 on 1 to feed Joe G. for the 3-0 lead.
Scungilli Slushy,
This inconsistency is what provides incentive to miscreants like the Marchands and Averys of the world. Those types of characters bank on the fact that the percentages are in their favour. They can play contrary to the rules to their own team’s benefit, because the chances they’ll be called to atone are slim.
If the refs call the rule book as it is written — more specifically, just do their job — then the players will broadly play to the rules. The job of interpreting the rules falls a body such as the Department of Player Safety. If the rules need to change, it can be done fairly quickly. See: Oilers, Edmonton, and Avery, Sean.
OP – I forgot that Persson signed 2 years ago and then stayed in Sweden
Skinner has a lot of potential, but it’s going to take time for him to develop the consistency that’s missing from his game. He needs another full year in the AHL as a starter and then he could be ready to backup in the NHL. His time-line and the young Russian’s are close although Konovalov could spend his draft plus 3 season in the AHL with Rodrigue if Skinner is backing up in EDM.
Buttons?
Triggers?
?
He is a rover!
All we can ask that he continues to improve the most important part of DEFENCEMAN portion of a Rover hybrid.
2D – 1G
Holland prefers his Dmen to be age ??? When becoming full time Dman?
Anyone?
Anyone!
Anyone…..”…
Ricki do you still sport a mullet?
Serious question.
Because they can’t.
Byfuglien’s $7.2 million cap hit remains although he’s not playing.
They also have more than $11 million in cap space sitting on IR.
Byfuglien screwed them badly.
Or, WPG screwed Big Buff between last year’s season ending medicals and the ones at this year’s training camp.
Depends on who’s word you’re taking with little in the way of actual info.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all shakes out in the end.
That I did not know. Mystery solved. Thanks.
And the efforts to exceed the rules to win will be taken away, and the focus will be to succeed within rules.
In any competitive environment a lack of boundary setting will lead to negative outcomes in some way.
Exactly
Skinner with another solid save on a cross-ice pass to the scoring areas at the end of a PP.
Scungilli Slushy,
Completely agree!
In fact, I’m in the camp that if there are 12 infractions against CMD per game, call them all. Even if he takes four himself. The players and coaches will adjust accordingly if they believe that there will be consistency in the calls.
Does this mean that Holland should also be fired given his lack of trades in-season to acquire a 3C or top 6 winger?
I get what you’re saying but in a highly fluid and fast game I don’t think your metric considers this.
D that can transition the puck make a huge difference in goal scoring even if they don’t directly score. And I agree with you that one way offensive D are very likely not net contributors overall. Although I do think there are certain exceptions to that rule, as there are to any rule.
They’ve given the second assist to Granlund who helped on the zone entry with a rim – I though Currie tipped it back to Benning, maybe not.
Benson deflects a Benning shot and the Condors are up 2-0.
Currie should get the 2nd apple.
Skinner has been fantastic.
So that may be true, but it is also like saying the reffing in the NHL can be excused because the NFL can’t referee football better than college and lesser leagues. Which is not true.
It’s not so much perfect, more about consistent year round, team to team, reg to playoffs. It is possible to have less negative outcomes. Too much old boy IMO, not enough concern about credibility.
Maybe when ‘Cory” retires it’ll get better.
GF/60:
Corsi to Corsi transition driven by Forwards and Rovers.
Corsi to outcome: driven by Corsi path directed by Forwards/ rovers, 3rs/4th option Dmen, point shots.
Path success reduced by opposition Dmen and Goalie.
What the fuck does GF have to do with real defenceman.
The true Norris canadates!
Russel is not a fucking Rover or a forward.
He sure does not play dman or goalie for the opposition.
Dmen are part of the 2D – 1G that drives Championship teams. as proven by the only 100% selection case of my champ roster theory.
Did you read my clear differentiation between the 2 path mechanisms
Transition 2D to Corsi release
Goal scoring 3D Corsi release to outcome.
You list
our Forward, rover driven transition.
Our Forward, rover, Point shot Corsi path targeting mechanism.
Opposition Dmen, and Goalie Corsi goal outcome% reduction mechanism.
Then you try to tell me that it is a 50% of the measure of Russell’s value.
What a awful opinion!
Cause none of that is good science or facts!
Brutal!
You recieve assists for another teammate directly scoring a goal.
Let’s check Dmen direct contribution to Even offence.
Evg/60
Further, the Kris Russell you praise so heavily in this thread is a negative at 5 on 5 goal differential while playing only 26% of his time against tough comp….
I encourage you to understand context and the fact that he’s now playing top pairing minutes as a 20 year old rookie pro and, over the last 6 weeks has show marked improvement in pretty much all areas.
I didn’t know that posting the ability to get clean zone exits with possession and clean zone entries with control could be construed as a negative.
Thanks for the replies everyone, some interesting replies.
I took from the doc that the Oilers medical staff wanted to operate as soon as possible. There’s no way that gets communicated to Connor without the highest level managerial consent.
We’re talking not just the Oilers franchise player, but the league’s.
And we’re forgetting how many season tickets were riding on whether Connor’s knee was fucked or not. It absolutely behove the Oilers to keep it schtum. That it coincided with Connor’s wishes does not make it the right decision.
We’ve endured the decade of darkness. Could we as a fanbase endure the premature end of the world’s best player?