There are dozens of takeaways from last night’s television premiere of ‘Whatever it Takes’, including the seriousness of the decision faced last spring by Connor McDavid. We learned he’s human, that people around are also concerned by his high speeds and possible damage from crashes, and that the young man heals like a super hero. We saw, perhaps for the first time, the real Connor McDavid. Raw, fragile, determined, purposeful. Impressive.
We learned that Ken Holland had a moment after being hired when he found out the true extent of the injury, and we can discuss whether or not that had an impact on his summer plans (I suspect it had to at least have some part in the process). That’s a lot from a television show.
Big questions: Where would this franchise be without McDavid? Does Ken Holland have trust issues? Does that change your opinion on Holland’s moves of summer? Do the Oilers approve of the verbal as it pertains to Nicholson? Is John Shannon the next big name to join the organization?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hey, Sparky, can you do that?’: How the Oilers’ AHL video coach got his start as the Islanders’ mascot.
- Eric Duhatschek: ‘He’s special’: The people who know him best tell the story of how Leon Draisaitl took the NHL by storm
- Pierre Lebrun: Where all 31 teams stand one month before the trade deadline
- Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
- Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
- Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
CONDORS 2019-20
I watched most of last night’s game, came away with a few impressions. I like Stuart Skinner’s game, calm in his net, allowed two goals, one an unlucky deflection to a forward in the slot, and the other a screen shot. Skinner’s winning this job, and maybe an NHL look down the line.
Evan Bouchard is a brilliant passer, he is quicker getting back on pucks and maybe a little cavalier with the puck in his own zone (quick back pass in the second period behind the net was gobbled up by the enemy). Performed well during a 3-on-5.
Matt Benning was quality to my eye, had a strong game and played a lot. William Lagesson had a strong game, the only quarrel I had was a little hesitation on a shot from a spot that was promising. Dmitri Samorukov scored a nice goal that required creativity and impressed with his mobility.
Ryan McLeod’s speed is impressive, he stands out in a good way. Looks more comfortable with the puck than he did earlier in the year. Tyler Benson wasn’t in the play early, but made up for it with great work in the last 40 minutes. He raced to pucks, sent passes to good areas, creative and responsible in equal parts. Josh Currie can shoot the puck, nice goal. Brad Malone had a strong night, good at both ends. Cameron Hebig scored an impressive goal, he’s on a little run here this week. Another game tonight, wonder if they run Starrett.
OILERS FORWARDS FIVE ON FIVE SCORING
We’ll start back to NHL stuff today and build toward Wednesday and the next game. One of the interesting happenings just before the AS break is an increase in the number of forwards scoring at a pace that keeps them in the range of average top 6 forwards. You may recall the last time we looked at this the club had three first line forwards (97, 29 and Kassian) a third line player (Sam Gagner) and an acre of fourth liners. Lets’ see what things look like now.
- Connor McDavid 2.88 (first line)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.81 (first line)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2.58 (first line)
- Zack Kassian 2.33 (first line)
- Sam Gagner 1.66 (third line)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.46 (third line)
- Joakim Nygard 1.29 (fourth line)
- Riley Sheahan 1.11 (fourth line)
- Josh Archibald 1.05 (fourth line)
- Gaetan Haas 0.99 (fourth line)
- Jujhar Khaira 0.92 (fourth line)
- Alex Chiasson 0.78 (fourth line)
- James Neal 0.76 (fourth line)
- Patrick Russell 0.69 (fourth line)
This is real progress, especially regarding Yamamoto (in a small sample size) and Nuge correcting like a demon. One of the areas we’re going to drill down on in the coming days: Who should be playing on McDavid’s wing? Here are the current numbers posted by winger. It’s clear that James Neal is so far off the pace that replacing him should be a priority.
- Nuge 3.87 (1-1-2 in 31 minutes)
- Leon Draisaitl 3.09 (10-17-27 in 523 minutes)
- Jujhar Khaira 2.68 (1-0-1 in 22 minutes)
- Josh Archibald 2.56 (2-1-3 in 70 minutes)
- Zack Kassian 2.48 (12-12-24 in 581 minutes)
- Sam Gagner 1.85 (0-1-1 in 32 minutes)
- Alex Chiasson 1.3 (one assist in 46 minutes)
- Joakim Nygard 1.1 (0-1-1 in 54 minutes)
- James Neal 0.61 (1-1-2 in 195 minutes)
Based on these numbers, and assuming the No. 2 line remains hot as a firecracker, how would you populate the lines in the second half? Here’s my thoughts:
- Joakim Nygard—Connor McDavid—Josh Archibald
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
- Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Zack Kassian
- Tyler Benson—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson/Sam Gagner
The alternate plan would have Benson with McDavid and Nygard on the fourth line. It’s time for Benson. We’ll talk more about it tomorrow.
~ Save On could not afford Hertl on a Western Canadian roster. ~
Maybe we should wait to see Benson in the NHL before critiquing his game.
He is not physical in the traditional sense, but from what I have read he is good along the wall and at winning loose pucks. His hockey IQ is also high.
Josh Archibald has 7 5 x 5 points in 40 games
Yamamoto already plays on the 2nd line
Benson has 0 NHL points is not physical is not a plus skater and plays left wing
Back to the drawing board bud
But a lot of those are old contracts not new contracts
Also you are not paying Kassian for just his point production
LT, I do think we’ll see something close to your suggestion as a 1st line. As you pointed out earlier in this thread, Neal has 1 goal in the past 9 games. But most don’t realize that Kassian has zero goals in the last 11, two of which he sat due to suspension. That’s 9 games in a row playing with the best player in the world and he’s 0-3-3 and minus-3. Contract aside, I think he’s played his way off McDavid’s wing until further notice it’s time to give others that opportunity. I think Tippett will keep Archibald at 1RW for now, and he’ll start the 1LW trials at the 1st practice.
I know.
I throw out all the regular season results and just judge players on All Star results too.
*checks results*
You would need 5 McDavids to equal one Hertl
Did Mama Kass sign for 4yrs at 3 million per yr yet are does Mama have to wait for a business day.
And yet Kassian boosters still can’t explain how 50% of all the wingers who get lined up with McDavid will produce at 1st line rates.
Why does Kassian deserve the praise and the raise when literally AHL tweeners like Rattie or 3rd or 4th liners like Caggulia, Khaira or Archibald can produce at similar levels alongside McDavid?
I don’t hate Kassian. I think he’s a useful player. I just believe you don’t overpay for complimentary players who are replaceable with almost any other wingers who play on McDavid’s line.
***
Take this hypothetical situation.
Let’s say McDavid’s leg injury didn’t heal, the PCL didn’t reconnect and they had to surgically reconstruct his knee, sidelining him for the entire year. The logical thing that Tippett would have done is that he would have constructed two lines with Draisaitl and RNH centering each line with Kassian somewhere in the top 6.
Without McDavid, is there any realistic scenario where Kassian produces at 1st line scoring rates? If you honestly believe that he would produce at the same rates alongside two wonderful players in Drai and Nuge as he does with McDavid, then yes. He deserves the raise to $3.5M+
The other thing is this: at $3.5M and up, that payment is about the range of a high level 3rd line winger or bottom end 2nd liner. Has Kassian shown the ability to dominate and drive play from the 3rd or 4th lines? If you say you’ve seen him consistently outplaying his opponents soundly on the bottom 6, then I’d call you a flat out liar.
Before Kassian got put on McDavid’s line, there wasn’t any groundswell of public opinion saying “we absolutely have to get Kassian with McDavid!”. The coaches were cycling through every winger and center literally trying anyone and everyone with McDavid.
Kassian is a nice redemption story. In the end, the NHL is a business. It would be nice to reward guys who’ve cleaned up their lives to bigger raises but that’s not how the business works. You pay for production. Kassian’s production is artificially elevated playing alongside McDavid. If you can’t see that, then your fandom is blinding you to the obvious facts.
In the five years in Edmonton where Kassian has controlled his alcoholism, his Shooting percentages have been:
7.1%
6.4%
8.1%
13.5%
and this year 18.1%
The average for his Edmonton tenure is 10.7% and his overall career shooting average is 11.9%.
If he was playing drunk before (and by your inferrence playing worse), why are his shooting numbers better than when he is sober?
Darnell Nurse and/or any other big D we might acquire, sign or develop over time. The “protection” or deterrence doesn’t have to come in the form of a forward linemate.
Vegas had Reaves and Engelland and an overall unified team identity. Tampa has Maroon, Coburn and the imposing size of Hedman (though he’s hardly a deterrence in the sense you mean). Carolina had Ferland, Foegele and Martinook as the extent of their real physical presence. Even the Bruins’ deterrence is built around Chara, Carlo and a strong team identity. Pittsburgh’s Cup winning teams had next to no deterrence, though Cole is pretty tough.
Very useful! Thank you
…and there are those who cannot bring themselves to accept that the new clean mature Kassian with a supportive coach is a categorically different player than the substance abusing, out of control player who was buried by a coach who hated his guts.
All the haters can do is keep referring to stats produced while he was drunk half the time or playing with Brodziak and Letestu. Not terribly convincing unless you think he’s going to relapse or TMac is coming back for an encore.
Kassian absolutely deserves credit for getting his life on track.
I just have a hard time believing that a guy who has doubled his shooting percentage while playing with the best player in the world has found a new level of performance at age 29.
He is a useful player, but overpaying him is a mistake.
If he was having an average year shooting percentage wise, he would be on pace for around 15 goals. Now factor in age related decline over 3-4 years. You might be looking at a 5-10 goal scorer the last two years of a four year deal.
That isn’t even factoring in that he might lose his top 6 job.
v4ance,
I find the endless debate over Kassian’s next contract fascinating in that it’s disorientating… I can’t tell one day from the previous reading the comment section here causing all of us to restate our opinions over and over ad nauseam.
There are those who can understand that paying a 29-year-old bottom sixer dollars and term for McDavid cooked stats is bad idea and those who do not.
That’s where we’re at.
Where did you pull 6M from?
“bottom sixer” dollars
Re-read and that sounds better.
The Kassian boosters who feel 4 years @ $3.5M+ AAV for Kassian (as reported in the media) isn’t an overpay seem to be relying on some faulty beliefs.
The only way that contract is justified is if Kassian maintains or betters his performance of this year for the entire term of his contract.
The only way his current level of performance is maintained is if Kassian is on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s lines for the majority of the term of the contract.
In my opinion, both of these factors have to be true for the contract to be remotely justified.
Seeing that McDavid has performed as well or better with Khaira, Slepyshev, Rattie, Maroon, Caggulia,Archibald, and on and on… why should Kassian be paid a premium when literally he could be replaced by someone better in a matter of weeks.
Some posters have taken the angle that McDavid likes what he brings to the team and that the overpay isn’t that bad. That’s the same sort of arguments that were made for Lucic and Russell when they were signed. Those extra cap dollars we locked up in bad contracts forced the club to bridge Nurse instead of locking him up for ~$5M AAV over a long term deal. Now we are looking at $6.5M AAV at best or $7M+ at worst.
Nurse will get his money from the Oilers now and if we give too much to Kassian, what happens to Bear’s next deal? We’ll fall into the exact same trap that we could have avoided with Nurse. Are people not learning at all?
Harper’s hair, dsf, whatever he calls himself is the king of the strawman. And people fall for it every time. king of trolling.
It could be, but that would still mean starting on the 2nd of a B2B per se isn’t the issue. And overall workload would be the real concern, as leadfarmer said to prompt all this.
Yeah an impressive effort this weekend by the looks of it. Skinner really is playing well and has grabbed the starters job. Cool stuff. Thanks for the updates.
I was talking about Kassian and Larsson in two separate conversations. Didn’t mean to confuse you.
I like Dom. He’s really smart and great at crunching numbers.
I do wonder if he’s made an erroneous conclusion.
Did it occur to Dom that the reason B2B starts may have less of a deleterious effect on save percentages now BECAUSE goalies are doing it less often or teams are better at managing their workload?
Goalies are starting B2B roughly 1/3 as frequently as they did before Tulsky.
It’s a little more than 3rd line money imo.
If you take a $83 mil cap as an example – and I am just guessing for one year so you could be right by the 3rd year, for example.
50 mil for forwards (14)
25 mil for dmen (7)
7 mil for goal (2)
Just leaves you with one million cushion which is tight.
Take the 50 mil for forwards
20 mil for 1st line
16 mil for 2nd line
8 mil for 3rd line
4.5 mil for 4th line
1.5 mil for PB
There is your 50 mil.
If you accept that the centre should make more than the wingers you are looking at something like
2.5 – 3 – 2.5
An average 3rd line winger makes 2.5 mil with a 83 mil cap.
I will leave it to others to argue whether or not Kassian is average, below average or above average and, as I said the cap could go up after next season.
Of course our cap is nowhere near 83 due to all the dead money from buyouts etc.
Interesting breakdown. I would have to look at this more in depth. I like how you looked at it from a whole roster compilation point of view. Strategic. I guess this is what your ideal salary breakdown would be (and it shows the value added of entry level deals – Bouchard – as you get a discount on a roster spot).
The women’s game was more entertaining than the first game tonight, which I thought was unwatchable. Thank goodness I taped it so that I could fast-forward.
When it leads to the flames winning the game, yup.
For some context on this, forwards by cap hit this season:
1st line
#1 McDavid $12.5M
Median Kesler $6.875M (ha!!)
#93 Foligno $5.5M
2nd line
#94 Zucker $5.5M
Median Toffoli $4.6M
#186 Cizikas $3.35M
3rd line
#187 Grabner $3.35M
Median Weise $2.35M
#279 Leivo $1.5M
4th line
#280 Ritchie $1.498M
Median Joseph Anderson NJD $0.925M
#373 Foote $0.925 (lotta players making 925k)
And in scoring – these are last years full season numbers:
1st line
#1 Kucherov 128
Median Radulov 72
#93 Gallagher 52
2nd line
#94 Lee 51
Median Ferland 40
#186 Thomas 33
3rd line
#187 Lindblom 33
Median Spezza 27
#279 Kuraly 21
4th line
#280 Wagner 21
Median Cogliano 17
#373 Luff 11
$3.5M would be a low low end 2nd line salary.
You haven’t discovered bread gloves I take it.
https://images.app.goo.gl/oyXH9Yjsd5aohZHaA
For sure, big and tough hockey – getting in on d-men and forcing quick plays and turnovers, wearing them down, etc. – that absolutely has value.
I don’t see what that has to do with “being a nuclear deterrent” but, of course, I don’t know anything about the league or its players so, carry on thinking you are more knowledgeable than anyone else and your opinion is the right one always.
I will carry on not engaging in conversations that demean me.
OriginalPouzar,
Question for you.
Why do you hear coaches repeatedly say finish your check when it doesn’t give you GF.
All these smart coaches and the game plan is finish your check
Because at least I think it’s similar to in football running up the middle for 3 yards. Doesn’t do much on the scoresheet but when the later parts of the game come around or your in a 7 game series your opponent is exhausted and starts making mistakes and that’s when it finally but indirectly shows up on the scoresheet
Tkachuk’s face beating Kassian’s fists into submission counts as eating his lunch?
Granny with the ENG and the Condors sweep and elite team in their own arena on back to back nights.
This team is getting going as the rookie pros start to find their way.
Here is the Currie PP Goal:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1221288390219272192
I hope you’re right about Benson.
But what skills does he bring that will allow him to eat Kassians lunch?
He’s not as big. Doesn’t skate as well. Has a lower draft pedigree.
He is supposedly good along the boards. But so is Kassian.
I think the concensus is that he is a better passer with better vision. But he still has to prove it at the NHL level. And his skating may not allow him to do that.
We’ll see when he gets here, but he’s a long way from a slam dunk.
As someone that keeps listing points/60 and comparing them to sub 6 foot players it is very clear you don’t have an understanding of the player or the league
It is very clear that the NHL still values size and physicality even if you don’t
There’s a reason you hear every off season a team is trying to get tougher after running into a team like the Bruins in the playoffs
Kassians physicality is more valuable than his points
Now I would personally not sign him to a 4 year contract but I understand why someone else would
That sure looks like the one. I just skimmed it but wow, seems like much ado about nothing (B2B being a bad thing). Thanks.
Fun all star game and nice to see the Pacific boys win.
Last year Draisaitl looked tentative, as if he wasn’t sure he should be there.
This year he looked like the all star he is. He knew he belonged.
Currie rips home a one-time on a 4 on 3 PP.
Benson up top to Lagesson over the Currie for the 3-1 goal.
To me, of course there is salary cap inflation over time but a salary cap range of $3.5 to $4 M is the bottom end 2nd liner or high end 3rd liner. The prime example is Brett Connolly who signed with FLA for $3.5 M and is basically 2nd line.
If you weren’t willing to give Connelly $3.5M, then you shouldn’t give a lesser player in Kassian anything near that amount.
That being said, Benson will likely eat Kassian’s lunch the instant he gets quality time with McDavid. He’ll be cheaper, younger and better.
Yup, Tkachuk has been pre-occupied helping his team win the game.
I don’t recall McDavid ever having an issue with Tkachuk – Kassian or no Kassian.
Tkachuk is no angel but, to this point, he was shown to be very smart, where the line is and how to help his team win games.
Not agreeing with you on a “nuclear deterrent” issue, having a differing opinion that you means I have “no understanding of the player” – you are right, I am wrong.
Are you getting at a reaction like Kass had the last time we played Calgary?
https://theathletic.com/1450527/2019/12/12/why-nhl-coaches-need-to-revisit-the-idea-that-goalies-shouldnt-start-on-back-to-back-nights/
I think it was this one. I’m on my work computer so cant log on to make sure it is the correct article
Mcdavid not having an issue with Tkachuk
Have you thought that may be because Tkachuk is preoccupied
Or do you think that TkaCooke is an angel that only shows off his dark powers when other heavies are around
I never expect my opinion to be taken as fact but I will state my case to defend my position even when others are expressing their opposite opinion as fact.
That’s neither here nor there though – You expressed, essentially, that since my opinion was wrong on Kassian in the past, which I admit, anything in the future I posit regarding him should be disregarded – not exact words but the substance.
Sorry but, in my opinion, that is an awful example.
Tkachuk has eaten Kassian’s lunch twice now – twice eliciting emotional responses from Kassian leading to large flame PP time and directly helping the flames win games.
If anything, all this talk about “settling the score” is will reasonably lead to it being 3-0. Shit, Connor McDavid is talking about “settling the score”.
Go win the game.
What is Kassian detering in this game? I don’t recall McDavid ever having an issue with Tkachuk that is being deterred.
Yeah they can be linked for sure I guess.
Do you have a link to the Athletic article? Or remember the author.
It’s a hell of a lot better than the Fox Puck. But yeah, it’s not enhancing my experience.
Well they add to the total at bats rather quickly if you are playing them every game, but recently the athletic debunked the effect of having a goalie start b2b games with the effect being rather miniscule in itself
Helpful points being made on the Kassian contract. Thanks guys.
I’d like to suggest, and Leadfarmer briefly touched a little on it earlier:
if the contract comes in at 3.25, that’s 3rd line money
For a non rfa
Non 35+
You need Pkers. You need physical players. You need passers. You need shooters. You need a wide variety of players and each have their value
Really?
No question total ABs matter, but B2Bs don’t?
Go away click bait troll. We know your game.
Hypothetical scenario. Two similarly aged RWs are up for contract renewal with the Oiler.
Both seem to have comparable numbers @ 1RW with McD. Let’s also say they would have similar performance by eye and by stats playing with McD in the future. Let’s say the would have comparable performance in the bottom 6 for the next 3-4 years. One is making 1M and the other is making 2M right In their current expiring UFA contracts. Player 1 has additional value as quality PKer. Player 2 has additional value of “toughness” (and a bit of crazy). Which is worth more during the course of a season and a playoff run? I guess if you have enough depth at PK and limited toughness, then the toughness would be the preferred option, and vice versa. But in a more general sense which “additional attribute” brings more to any team over the course of a year (including playoffs)?
My feeling is the value of both is contingent on the rest of the line-up (what needs do they fill) and perhaps some intangibles (good in the room, respected by teammates, maybe even a “heart and soul” guy). Player #1 might get about a 20-30% raise (so 1.25M) for 2-3 years. Based on this hypothetical information, how much should Player #2 get for AAV and term?
And this is why you have no understanding of the player.
I would really like to see how Yamamoto or Archie responds when the refs lose control of the game. Which one of them is going to take Jordan Greenway on when he starts taking liberties with our players. He could probably take down Archie Yamamoto and Benson himself
No.
It just means we shouldn’t take your opinions as fact. No matter how certain you are about them.
I do agree that Kassian, or any player, has limited value as a deterrent. I just think he’s a better hockey player than a lot of posters are giving him credit for.
Kailer Yamamoto?
Tyler Benson?
Josh Archibald?