How much offense should we expect from Tyler Benson as an NHL player? Second round in a good draft, injuries in junior but solid numbers when healthy, impressive AHL campaign at 20 and a lesser season at the same level age 21.
Is he a lock for top-9 minutes in the NHL for, say, five years or more? If we could bet on his playing more NHL games in his career than Jujhar Khaira has played up to this point in his career (218), would you put your money down?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
- Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
- Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
- Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
- Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
- Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
OILERS DRAFTED FORWARDS CAREER NHL PTS-GAME
This is a list of all forwards drafted by Edmonton since 2010 who have played in the NHL for a significant period of time. None of the men drafted outside the first round posted .5 points per game. In fact, two men chosen inside the top five overall failed to reach that mark.
Players inevitably graduate to either a skill line (Hall, Nuge, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yamamoto) or a support line (everyone else), with a special “Europe exit ramp” built in just for the Oilers.
Of all the men who have delivered less than .5 points per game above, who would be your choice to emerge as a legit offensive player? I’ll pick Puljujarvi.
AHL numbers
Using only players drafted outside the first round, and combining the first two AHL seasons, how many forwards performed better than Benson? None.
The last player to be drafted outside the first round by Edmonton who averaged more than .5 points per game in his NHL career was Mike Comrie (.619) who was chosen in 1999.
I think Benson’s best comparable is Dillon Dube, although he delivered more offense (1.04 points per game) in his AHL time. Dube’s NHL points per game so far in his career? .300, or about what Tobias Rieder has been delivering his NHL career. I believe Dube (and Benson) will rise to .5 during their NHL careers although their final number (at career end) is unlikely to be that high.
THE PIPELINE
Benson’s emergence as a top nine forward is badly needed, both in terms of roster quality and cap value. The value contracts under $3 million for next season (McDavid will always be a value deal) will likely be Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Ennis, Josh Archibald, Matt Benning, plus Evan Bouchard and Benson. Need that pipeline.
NHLE
Anything above 30 points in junior or AHL is solid, Bouchard’s number for a defenseman is very strong. Slepyshev’s number (and Puljujarvi’s) makes him worth signing in my opinion, but expecting .5 points per game in the NHL is probably too hopeful based on his first 100 NHL games.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the air with compelling guests and lots of news. I honestly thought yesterday would be a slog but there remains plenty of sports activity to discuss. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us to talk about his article on Peter Chiarelli and the summer business to come. Geoff Ulrich from Draft Kings will talk NFL in what looks like a massive week of loud noises in free agency and Corey Graham (Oil Kings pbp broadcaster) will talk about a team that is locked and loaded for a deep run and waiting for the opportunity to earn a championship. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Eastern Africia is being overwhelmed with locusts.
Utah hit with a 5.7 magnitude earthquake.
https://abc7chicago.com/magnitude-57-earthquake-rocks-utah/6024425/
Cue the locusts.
The Canadian dollar now trading at a hair over 69 cents and dropping.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/currencies/CADUSD/
And there it is.
Trump closes the Canada US border to non-essential travel.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-19-live-updates-coronavirus-canada-covid19#click=https://t.co/IobULrRdSS
Unlike many I’ve never complained about having to work. Hopefully you know how to save some of it which for levity sake I won’t bore everyone with the rationale behind this theory except it helps a lot to have Highland blood.
Oilers are doing about what I hoped but didn’t honestly know was possible but Holland/Tippet are probably as good a pair of hands running an NHL team as there are in the league today so there’s no fundamental reason to worry(unlike the Lowe+MacT years and right up to Chiarelli which saw a Rose Bowl parade level of incompetence).
We are going to see The Fed become banker of last resort FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD before this is over. That’s right… other Central Banks are going to go under without 24/7 unlimited swap lines with The Fed.
Think about this.
This Pandemic crisis is nowhere near the level of, say, WWII.
And we have The Fed, RIGHT NOW doing everything they can to prevent the financial world from collapsing. And it is still not enough. The swap lines will be deployed.
Because of the world those Central Planners created.
By the way, if you are anywhere near FDR’s or Nixon’s or Woodrow Wilson’s graves right now, please urinate on them for me. Thanks in advance.
#bucketlist
Okay fine. During the GFC, The Fed did the same for the first time in the history of the world for a short period. Except now, due to QEs and corporate leverage and zombie banks and all the rest from all the bubbles that came before, the funding gap is essentially double in only 12 years…
ie. now 12 TRILLION dollars…
Likely just a flesh wound. At least that’s what we will be
tellinglying to our grandchildren.The Athletic L.A. @TheAthleticLA
“Multiple” Ottawa Senators players are now thought to be ill from COVID-19, according to @hailey_salvian and @mirtle, who write that L.A. is thought to be the location of infection.
***
David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod
Update: At Staples Center, there are visiting rooms for NBA teams and NHL teams. There is confusion on which rooms were used, but it appears the Sens & Nets either shared rooms or transportation.
***
Arash Markazi @ArashMarkazi
I was just told the Nets and Senators were in different visiting locker rooms but may have used the same bus.
***
John Hoven | The Mayor@mayorNHL
KD and several Brooklyn Nets players tested positive. They played the Lakers at Staples on 3/10. Ottawa played in LA on 3/11.
***
Jeff Veillette @JeffVeillette
“Kevin Durant gives the Senators a pandemic virus” is somehow still in the threshold of crazy stories you could’ve made up about the team a year ago and I would’ve believed you
This does, however, highlight the difficulty of tracing community transmission.
It’s not just about human-to-human contact but merely being in the same place within a few hours or even a couple of days of each other.
Once it gets beyond travel, tracing becomes nearly impossible.
Hope you get back to wherever you want to be soon. Sucks to be stranded anywhere.
ps: How do you like the Oilers overachieving past your Death March™ expectations this season?
Hunter…I like being able to still work. This job will make my month. Now about that Mexico trip…
As for the Oilers, My prediction was pretty close…Ha.
I’m glad I underestimated rather than over like most years.
Any idea why that Medium article would get flagged from my Facebook timeline as spam? Was something not accurate in it?
Bug:
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/facebook-link-spam-filter-coronavirus/
It’s more likely there’s something not accurate about FB.
FB has acknowledged their error.
That’s awesome. Thanks, guys. I felt something strange was going on there!
And thanks for posting the original link! I’ve shared it in a few places!
See how slow I type!
I think people being in relative quarantine for months will make wave 2 much more acceptable. Hopefully there are good therapeutics, but even without them this won’t go on forever.
Relaxation will be progressive not all at once. First relaxation will be to get our working lives back and after all of this even that will be a relief and hope for the rest.
People also underestimate what could be accomplished when we relax restrictions just from having a Singapore level or South Korea level of testing. Hospitals being able to keep more patients out of ICU and having more ICU capacity. These things can all add up to make the 2nd wave what we wanted the 1st wave to be. It isn’t just about waiting for a vaccine.
Long Ars Technica piece
The end describes why the Fall end game could work.
Singapore just hit its highest daily count of new cases today (Tuesday) and is engaged in increasing restrictions in their second wave, not relaxing them.
And their GDP estimates are expected to be downgraded even further as they have just locked ca. 290,000 workers out of their country (as of their Wednesday).
Edit:
Thirteen percent of their labour force has just disappeared. Correction… thirteen percent of their pre-Covid labour force has disappeared. I don’t have the numbers for their layoffs during Covid, which were substantial, but obviously they have just locked out an even bigger chunk of active participation to this date.
They have less “working lives” now than they did during the initial wave.
Hi Gang…
In the lower mainland, BC this week for work. Restaurants to be closed on Wednesday. Grocery stores running out of food. Pools shut down. Imprisoned in the hotel. I dreamt I was a LT’s house last night. What’s with the porcelain figurines Lowetide?
Maybe I caught something? Is this life after hockey?
Hockey is my #1 sport/passtime. If the Oilers are on, particularly playoffs, I will watch. Maybe some will be distracted, but as Munny alludes to we may not yet be enjoying summertime activities in any case.
That would actually benefit the NHL if the NBA cancelled — no arena competition and decreased risk of cross contamination. Players could play in front of limited crowds. I think there is a chance it could happen.
If the NBA cancels, the NHL will follow suit because then they will have PR cover for doing so. Not to mention they will not want to be the League that is known for perpetuating spread.
Except when it comes to the health of their stars, the NHL is risk-averse.
Never before have so many Canadians craved distraction in a world suddenly so bereft.
I’ve just bought a bottle of Writer’s Tears and had my first ever sip.
Figgered today was the day. Been waiting for St. Paddy’s to arrive since y’all first mentioned this damn demon liquor.
I’m not sure why everyone is so anxious to see hockey playoffs this year?
By the time this first wave of covid 19 passes most people in Canada will probably have started their summertime activities and won’t be paying a lot of attention to any NHL restart.
Plus how good will the hockey possibly be if the players have been sitting around for 2 months?
I think we should just start looking forward to next year. Hell, Oilers fans should be used to this.
In case anyone is bored, the Flashman series of books by George MacDonald Fraser can provide a form of entertainment for a certain type of reader.
Thanks for that. We are planning on being on the road by 5:30 tomorrow morning and making it to Pocatello Idaho tomorrow night.
If everything goes according to plan we should be at the border by about 3 pm on Thursday.
long drive, be safe..
Best of luck to you and the Missus.
They’re working out the deals to exclude tourists, day shoppers and other non-essential. Won’t be issues returning home in either direction.
They’ll let Canadians in. Still a long trip, take care.
Canada and the US working on closing the land border.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/us-canada-suspend-travel/index.html
I wonder if they will finally close Roxham road.
Yeah I wasn’t even considering live audiences. And agreed, there would be a strong appetite/audience for any games that could be broadcast if they can make that happen (judging on myself!!) 🙂
I don’t think it’s very likely, but it sure would be great to see this version of the Oilers play playoff games in 2020.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
35m
There is word tonight that an Ottawa Senator player has tested positive for COVID-19. This would be the NHL’s first positive test. Initial word is symptoms are not serious. Team is expected make official announcement.
I can’t see any way that they can play hockey in front of crowds. What once seemed like a weird idea will re-surface shortly imo which is that they play in a few locations before empty barns.
Don’t forget that as much as the NHL relies on gate revenue they also have TV rights holders who have their own agenda of selling advertising. Pretty sure they don’t care if there is anybody in the stands with nations of captive audience sitting at home night after night.
However they determine who should be in the playoff I could see them building something around one location for the EC and one for the WC. Private planes are available and neutral sites are easily arranged if you don’t need seating capacity.
Once they test all the athletes and employees I can see that being a possibility. I cannot see them playing in front of paying customers though.
I’m not sure they feel any obligation to rights holders. After all, the League is already being paid regardless (I think). There’s going to be some unique insurance provisions in the next TV contract to be sure.
I also think the NHL is a bunch of chickenshits and will wait for the NBA to take the lead on the issue.
But really we are all just kind of flailing around on this issue. Weird times and we have no idea how it might play out.
I’m a greedy bastard so I’d take hockey whenever and however they can play it, even if it is just TV,
And like JP implies below, it would be nice to have this particular iteration of the Oil measure themselves against playoff hockey.
This is why I don’t understand why some of the pundits have been nicking Broberg. The forwards drafted around him all had pretty solid seasons but no one really took a step forward from their draft year.
Yeah, I believe this is the reason why “May 15” was bandied around so much today, and what format would fit.
I don’t see the BOG agreeing to a one site policy, even if they split the revenue. (But you never know…. desperate times require…)
And if it is more than one site, they would need gathering bans lifted in every jurisdiction they play.
And judging by China’s experience, this could easily be a 3 month long situation for us the public.
No jurisdiction is going to want to lift restrictions early and take the risk of a quick second wave. A second wave is likely baked into the cake regardless, but TPTB would want proof of manageable numbers before taking away curve-flattening measures, I’d expect.
Will be interesting how much testing, tracking, icu and therapeutics can be built up in 6 months to make wave 2 acceptable. Even that regeneron thing today was interesting if it can deliver. Enough antibodies (without vaccine) to give a month of protection at a time to the most vulnerable and to intervene early in infections.
I’m hoping the CIAU does the same.
Yeah, if they have the capacity to test all the players, know they’re free and them keep them isolated together it’s conceivable. It’s more than a little unlikely but it sure would be nice.
He had a good, not shocking good season. Seems like a lot of those USNDP players started off hot (seemed like that to me) and then cooled off this season.
Hughes 1ov NHL 61-7-14-21
Turcotte 5ov NCAA 29-9-17-26 (didn’t he start off really strong in Oct/Nov?)
Zegras 9ov NCAA 33-11-25-36
Boldy 12ov NCAA 34-9-17-26 (he started off really cold, no? nice recovery if so)
Knight 13th NCAA 33 1.97 .931
York 14th NCAA 30-5-11-16 (tied for 4th in team scoring)
Caufeild 15ov NCAA 36-19-17-36
Beecher 30th NCAA 31-9-7-16
A bunch of really solid college season in there, but not many that clearly “should” turn pro. Lots of could turn pro/could stay in college from where it sit. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys were pretty hyped.
We have the 60 day no crowds decree from the CDC and what Bettman said yesterday is the current hope is that they start a mini-training camp 45 days in with play to commence at the end of that 60 day period.
Of course, at this point, we really don’t have any idea if that is do-able.
Thanks, and yeah they definitely need time for an off season, FA, recovery.
July 24th was in range of my last day guess but I hadn’t really though through the implications. You could run a playoffs in a month, but you can’t really expect the playoffs to begin with players not having stepped on the ice for 3 months (hence ~ May 15).
I agree that May 15th is not realistic. June 15 could be plausible maybe, but that really isn’t enough time…
I wasn’t holding out much hope for this season to resume, but this really brings home how unlikely it is.
AnnIe…get your gun.
Steve Keeley
@KeeleyFox29
BREAKING:
@phillypolice
officers instructed to stop making arrests for following list of what are consider non-violent crimes. Here is the email sent to city police officers telling them to just obtain arrest warrants for now.
@FOX29philly
https://twitter.com/KeeleyFox29/status/1240084289770962944?s=20
With my cable subscription, on the FX Canada website, one can streams the entire six seasons of “The Americans”
Relieve the eighties with Felicity as an evil ice b$tch to die for. And all your favourite eighties music.
The Calgary Stampede has just laid off 80% of its work force…mostly part time and casual.
Muchos gracias.
This will become common as NHL teams cannot offer their signed NCAA prospects the chance to burn off the first year of their entry level contracts.
I expect there will be a surge in NCAA players who won’t sign and will become UFAs at the end of their college careers.
Also, the NCAA is considering extending college eligibility by a year since most athletes had their seasons come to an abrupt end.
Cole Caufield heading back to Wisconsin for next season – not turning pro quite yet.
Swiss. He was called the “Swiss Miss” in some parts, but his career would have run its course in Edmonton before the blog began. Edmonton traded him in 2001, my blog started in 2004.
Lowetide posters remember a headline “Reisen to Believe” back in the dark time of Lowe+MacT – when you were discussing Michael Reisen who was German, right? I don’t really remember too much about him, just the Lowetide play on words.
That’s the fall item that lists the entire training camp roster with chances of making it by percentage per individual. You’ll see that again. 🙂
A great article from Justin Bourne at the Athletic on ways the NHL might hold a playoff tournament.
It would require an Olympic Village type of scenario with access to multiple sheets of ice.
My first thought was Vancouver since they have two NHL sized arenas in Rogers and the Pacific Coliseum as well as facilities in Whistler which could be used as an Athletes village.
https://theathletic.com/1678653/2020/03/16/bourne-among-postseason-options-a-quarantined-playoffs-seems-most-realistic/?source=twittered
Thoughts?
Cool idea. I would counter with Rogers and Northlands of course. The Coliseum Inn would make a dandy athletes village.
Haha.
It certainly has more cachet than Whistler Village.
Do they still have a peeler bar?
Oh boy I sure hope not.
With multiple Brooklyn Nets now diagnosed with covid, most likely Lakers as well yet unannounced from them so far.. I have my doubts NBA comes back to finish, I think hockey ends up following suit.
The speculation on sports radio today was May 15… which is a date they will never make IMO.
The latest the cup has been awarded is July 24th – which has happened twice.
The league has been pretty clear that they do not want an extension this year to effect next year materially – if they can give away the cup this year without delaying next season materially (and keeping the integrity of the game for how the structure the rest of this season).
There also has to be enough of a break to, not only allow for the butyout periods, the draft, free agency, etc., but also for the players to recover – anything less than 8 full weeks is probably a non-starter for the players.
Starting the season after late October, probably not workable either on the premise that they don’t want two seasons materially effected.
Cool – let me know if you change our mind though – not a big deal at all, happy to help if it helps.
Has there been discussion of how late the NHL could conceivably re-convene? I agree it’s highly unlikely, but in say 3 months, possibly? Could the NHL play some games mid-June to mid-July, for instance?
Some players talking about August and a mini training camp in late July.
I preferred that too!
Any chance this NHL work stoppage sees an increase in retirements over the off-season?
Did we see that after the lockout or is my memory deceiving me?
We live about 10 minutes from Morningstar Farm on Vancouver Island.
They sell fresh whole milk in reusable glass bottles with the cream floating on top….oh my.
That is incredibly kind. Because we only moved to Calgary last summer we really don’t know anybody there. I think we will be OK. We can order food in for a day or two and then place an order from one of the grocery stores and get it delivered. But thanks. That was really nice of you to offer.
When I turned 50 my wife harassed me into going for a physical since I had never had one. Of course I was told my cholesterol was a little high so my solution was to give up coffee. Why coffee? Because I didn’t really drink coffee so much as coffee flavoured cream.
For 15 years I never drank coffee but when I turned 65 a few years ago I bought myself a Breville XL870 Espresso Machine. One of the best purchases I have ever made in my life. It turns 2% into a delightful creamy mixture that I highly recommend with a triple shot of dark roast.
I can’t drink that swill they sell at Timmy’s. Sorry.
I try to avoid it too.
The medical world views cream a little differently these days.
But John Luther is sick……