I drag my draft coverage out over several months for two reasons: I love talking draft and Oilers fans are traditionally ready to talk draft by this time of year and I can run it all the way to June 1 while holding interest.
For me, the math is the thing. I could post my final list when all the games are done. All the games are done. However, the conversation surrounding the draft has a life of its own, and tournaments drive last minutes changes. CHL playoffs and Memorial Cup, the big European tournaments in spring, the combine. All gone. Today, we don’t know when the draft will take place, or when (or if) we’ll see the combine. Where do we go from here?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
- Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
- Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
- Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
- Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
- Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
- Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
- Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
THE MATH OF THE DRAFT
I pay attention to birth dates and scouting reports that confess to worries about speed. I use NHLE heavily. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications. The 1971 draft was about a lot of things and it captured my imagination (don’t let anyone tell you hockey can’t get caught up in politics). I wondered about Bob Gainey in 1973 and Ron Chipperfield a year later, and I wondered about Alex DeBrincat in his draft year and about Arthur Kaliyev last year. Math doesn’t tell everything but it does say something. It’s saying it again.
These are most of the top forwards by NHLE. My current list (below) is slow playing an inevitable rise up the charts by men like Seth Jarvis and Jan Mysak.
Bob McKenzie’s mid-season list has Seth Jarvis at No. 24, same as my list. I’ll probably have Jarvis top-10 or thereabouts on my final final, suspect he’ll move up a little for McKenzie too. Bottom line is you can look at the NHLE and know where I’m going in the next while in terms of rankings. There might be a late Mysak but it’s less likely due to lack of European tournaments this year.
My plan over the next weeks is to highlight various public resources (Corey Pronman will be next) and it begins today with Scott Weeler.
SCOTT WHEELER
Scott is my guest today on the Lowdown, we’ll talk about the lost combine and the vague draft day, plus the 2020 draft. Wheeler offers a unique perspective on prospects, offering a viewpoint previously unavailable to fans. He uses video to show specific skills (witness his discussion of Lucas Raymond in his mid-season rankings) and drills down on skating issues real or imagined (Quinton Byfield in the same piece) that go beyond fast or slow.
Wheeler represents next level public scouting reports in my opinion, as he offers identifiable skills and weaknesses in players. You don’t have to agree with him, but there is much value in reading him. I think his look at Evan Bouchard gives you a good idea about why Wheeler is a must read every draft year. He also wrote about Ryan McLeod in a piece that foretold the future.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we celebrate what would have been opening day in baseball and talk NHL draft 2020. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will pop in at 10:20, we’ll chat about the difficulty in scouting this year compared to previous seasons. At 11, Jonah Birenbaum from The Score talks baseball and why you can never have enough arms. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Don’t worry. I took a screenshot of these comments on my phone. I honestly think this was said to raise morale. It was a classy move by DSF.
I heard the sun was told not to look directly at Brogan Rafferty.
Ladies and gentleman, we have a ‘too close to the Sun’ alert, please put on protective eyewear and do not look directly into the sun.
YES!
Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology is a major manufacturer of Covid test kits.
The Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, testing the test kits they had recently received from SBB, found that the nose swabs had an accuracy rate of less than 30 percent.
Spain has demanded the Chinese company—which is in the midst of fulfilling orders for 5 million kits—replace the 340,000 kits, which they have agreed to… while stating the kits are fine, they were just being used wrong.
337,000 tests in S. Korea were done using these same rapid-response kits.
Edit: the above was from the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong’s daily)… there is no way for me to verify the sources of S. Korea’s test kits, but I will say that the SCMP’s number for the amount of test kits bought from SBB is the same as the total number of tests S. Korea has done to date.
And in Czech 80% of Chinese kits were defective. China’s image is taking a well deserved hit despite their efforts to burnish it. Coverup, spin, and spin some more.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937
Standard procedures are to test 3 times or 2 times + tie breaker. Also each lab sends first X pos and first X neg samples for retest using different kit. I’d assume S. Korea knew exactly what they got and used it well. See curve, Korea, South.
S. Korea uses a lot of drive-by testing which I don’t believe has 2-3 tests.
Also we have no idea how any of these kits S. Korea has used. Might be this set of kits is recently received and have hardly been used.
Every gov’t will be testing their kits now. If it’s a big deal we’ll hear about it.
Stuff I heard on the radio today:
More 911 calls in NYC today than on 9-11.
One NYC hospital had to bring in a reefer truck to move/store dead bodies. Morgues are overwhelmed.
That said, the scariest thing I saw today was the release of a new FDIC video advising everyone that it was safe to keep your money in the bank.
I’ve been doing a lot of trolling on this blog today, but the master has utterly schooled me. I bow in total awe of this profound fuckery.
You’ve been on fire today.
Not sure anyone caught your reference to LT’s article title in your first draft post.
In a 2017 re-draft, an argument could be made for each of Makar, Heisekanan or Pettersson to go 1st overall – those are the top 3 for sure.
I think Dahlin still goes 1st in a 2018 re-draft, Hughes and Svechnikov fight for 2/3 with Tkachuk 4.
Yeah those two are definitely solid.
Brackett’s record has been pretty barren otherwise though. Just 2 or 3 other picks in 4 years you’d consider to have plus arrows since draft day.
Surely explains why they HAVE to chase unsigned college free agents.
A 22 year old d-man that played an entire season on the top 4, most of it at the top right show d-man isn’t better than a soon to be 25 year old AHLer?
This is wild stuff.
Klefbom is a LHD and Hughes is already better than him.
I like Bear but can’t see he is any better than Rafferty.
Given the cap implications, I would keep Rafferty.
Well, that’s something.
Would you trade Rafferty for Oscar Klefbom?
For Ethan Bear?
No.
Both Pettersson and Hughes. arguably, would go first overall.
Not bad.
Depends
Are you willling add Mcdavid?
Jk that’s not reasonable at all
Add Mcdavid and Draisatl
Lol. This aught to be good.
I do have to ask, HH, if you were Benning, and were offered Evan Bouchard for Rafferty in a trade, straight up, would you make it?
Well considering they are all about 2 years or so younger than Rafferty who, all of a sudden is a sure fire NHLer at 25, it seems your timelines change to meet your narrative.
He was promoted in 2015 so he ran that 2016 draft.
He did hit on Pettersson and Hughes at least. Unclear on the rest, but clearly better than his performance in 2016.
The Canucks have been drafting poorly for years until Judd Bracket showed up.
It’s possible, but this one never even looked like it had a chance. Yikes…
https://thecanuckway.com/2016/06/25/vancouver-canucks-2016-nhl-draft-grades/
We agree essentially in full here, I think.
Still haven’t had a chance to read the ICL article (or your links) but 0.57% IFR seems low still. 9 of 10 cases being asymptomatic/unreported seems lower than reasonable from the bit i’ve seen, at least using South Korea, who have done extensive testing. My whole argument was that even if their reported 0.7% CFR were the going rate (higher than that in reality it seems), 40M deaths from 7B people infected doesn’t add up.
Using the updated S Korea 1.38% CFR you posted, that would mean ~60% of infections went undetected, correct? is that possible with the amount of testing they’ve done?
Yeah…four years in…it’s a complete wipeout.
Its not looking great but the door isn’t closed on much of it:
– Pulujuarvi – of course, the player will never be 4th overall value nor will we get that in a trade but an asset will likely come back at some point
– Benson – book is far from closed on this player – he’s a second round pick and they generally need 2-3-4 years post draft – tons of players “make it” in their 21, 22, 23 years
– Niemelainen may get a contract but it may even be an AHL deal (unlikely to come over on an AHL deal) and, nope, he’s unlikely to ever play in the NHL
– Berglund remains a prospect of interest and has a solid shot at NHL games this coming season
– Wells – he’s been passed by Skinner and with Konovalov having one more year on his KHL deal (presumably coming over after) and Rodrigue turning pro, well, he’ll need a bounce back year this year – you never know with goalies though
– Rasanen – I don’t know what this news means but its probably not a great sign.
Berglund, Benson and the Puljujarvi return still have stories to tell I think.
He’s been a darkhorse of mine since I saw him play such a broad game at the World Juniors a few years back – he was the “everything” for Team Finland – faceoff guy, down a goal, up a goal, net front guy on PP1
The 2016 draft is looking like a complete wipeout for the Oilers.
Hmmm, interesting – thank you for posting.
I was thinking Rasanen would be on the radar for a signing after this coming season at BC.
I’m not sure what this does to the Oilers holding his rights – I assume they are kept through next season….
Yes, these suggestions do scream parody to me. Of course, the league wants parity (and its indeed what we already have).
Parody is the relationship between officials and the rule book.
Parrotty describes most post game questions and answers.
None of this rhymes with Marody, much to my surprise when I heard his name pronounced by experts.
The media pull back is starting to happen:
CTV News Vancouver
@CTVVancouver
·
1m
LISTEN LIVE: As of Thursday evening, CTV News at Six will be simulcast on TSN 1040. That’s in addition to being streamed live on http://CTVNewsVancouver.ca, now available without a login.
Can you imagine what traffic in Didsbury was this afternoon?
We sit out on our deck in the afternoons here on Vancouver Island and the silence is deafening.
All you can hear are sea lions bellowing from a mile away.
Jeff Cox
@JeffCoxSports
· 35m
One somewhat surprising departure for BC is Aapeli Rasanen forgoing his final year of eligibility. Edmonton Oilers draft pick will reportedly head back to his native Finland and sign a pro contract there.
New for The Athletic: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
https://theathletic.com/1698110/2020/03/26/lowetide-dave-tippett-deploys-unproven-talent-expertly-in-first-oilers-season/
Why don’t you just throw all the players names into a hat and teams have to draw names. You could get Laferniere in the 6th round!!!
Where’s the strategy in that?
Fine make it a white elephant and call it a day.
Member of the Avs has tested positive so that makes three NHLers that we know of.
Since no one seemed to like my idea of a backwards draft, here’s an even better scenario.
The first round involves Central Scouting’s top prospects. But they’re each assigned into the 31 spots randomly.
Instead of choosing a player, the teams, starting with the last place team and going up, choose a number.
Only *after* they choose the number is the associated player is revealed. Could be Lafreniere, could be this year’s Alex Plante.
And here’s the genius part: the next team up can choose either to pick their own number, or *steal a player from another team that’s already picked*, at which point the team losing the player would get to pick again.
But here’s the genius part: Central Scouting has mixed in 5 unranked players! So after the dust settles those teams could be totally SOL!
This would clearly be a far cooler way of distributing players.
Let’s take your logic and apply it to the game itself. Go directly to the shootout. Then randomly replace one shooter with a coin toss. Now THAT’s entertainment.
Mind telling us what problem you are hoping to solve? Speaking just for myself, I don’t itch where you’re trying to scratch. Not even a little bit.
To bring parody to the league.
Zing!!
I’m going to assume they used death as the marker because date of death isn’t guesswork (outside of Monty Python). As per Seattle first death is a good way to estimate how long circulation has been underway.
NYC reached 0.2 deaths per 100,000 on the 20th, the day of the stay at home order.
BC reached 0.2 deaths per 100,000 on the 22nd with the 10th death. Suspect that like Seattle that more reflects early transmission in a nursing home. Still concerning if BC testing is backlogged.
Rush hour traffic in downtown Calgary looks about as heavy as a normal Wednesday afternoon in Didsbury.
Not that I have any real idea what traffic in Didsbury looks like on a Wednesday afternoon. 😉
I’ve seen the Tableau chart for US travel distance reductions. Best states are around 50%
Best being the most reduction in traffic?
I’d be absolutely floored if the reduction in the Boston area is only 50%. I’d guess more like 75%.
Could be less reduction in rural areas I guess, but rush hour is no longer a thing, even 2 weeks ago.
PCR can detect asymptomatic carriers while they carry. But like symptomatic cases the asymptomatic cases recover. So late ramp up of PCR will miss recovered cases whereas antibody serology can arrive late to the game and reveal all.
Definitely true.
Let’s have a drinking game. One shot every time we hear that crazy 0.7% CFR for Korea. It was obtained by diving deaths into cases DURING rapid growth when most cases were too new to die!!!
Current CFR is 1.38%. But wait 27% of cases there 20-29 and 10% were 30-39. That does not reflect Korea’s pop nor the infection age profile anywhere else. It reflects the cult linked to 2/3 of Korea’s case recruiting mostly 20-29 women. So remove half of the excess 20-29 and bang CFR is above 1.5%. So that 0.7% stat that will not die isn’t even telling half the story on CFR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea
Before going back to the no intervention case how about the late intervention in Wuhan. Same problem with calculating before most cases aren’t new. Go down to cases and deaths for Wuhan and CFR is 5.0%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Hubei
Who knows what CFR is without any intervention? People go to ground everywhere at some point if they can.
Back to the model I don’t know what CFR they have in mind. If 9 out of 10 cases don’t report the 0.57% IFR is 5.7% CFR
Sweet hysteria
https://newcriterion.com/blogs/dispatch/sweet-hysteria
Dividing deaths by cases too complicated?
Dr Fauci:
“You don’t make the timeline. The virus makes the timeline’,
No country yet has actually done anything other than shelter when the peak hit. So prattle on. Reality comes anyways.
And since you love opinion depending on which presidents the writer likes here’s a good one:
Whether people are locked in their homes via self-quarantine or gasping for air in an ER because they didn’t stay home from work and got infected, they’re no longer meaningfully contributing to the economy. The difference is that the people in the first group are ready to hit the ground running once it’s safe to work again. Some in the second group will also return quickly to the job after they recover, but some will still be too impaired. Some will be dead.
Western Canadian Select heavy oil price benchmark fell 30.5 per cent on Thursday to US$6.45 per barrel, which analysts joke is less than a pint of beer. U.S. crude prices fell 7.7 per cent to US$22.60 per barrel.
https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/canadian-heavy-oil-cheaper-than-a-pint-of-beer-as-north-american-demand-for-fuel-plummets
Are the refineries still putting perfectly fine ethanol into retail gas that would command plague prices in hand sanitizer?
I’m not sure about “stapled to the 3rd line” – yes, his most common linemate was Sheahan at 49 minutes but his second most common was McDavid at 44 minutes.
I’m also not so sure that GMs would value Puljujarvi more than AA or even as much as him. I think Puljujarvi could still be a solid NHL player but he simply hasn’t accomplished what AA has in this league – sure AA struggled this past year and his 30 goal season is likely an outlier but he’s still averaged 20G per 82 games – Puljujarvi, while much younger, hasn’t accomplished anything like that and does indeed, unfortunately, come with baggage now.
But do other GM’s see it that way?
Hopefully they get a 2nd and at least a 3rd for JP, when you think they gave two 2nds for AA and then pretty much stapled him to the 3rd line. JP is at the very least just as valuable and would probably be quite a bit cheaper..
DEEEEEEEEP. Best in a decade outside of 2015 …..
OP, thanks for this info.
But was there a court challenge when they did it? There was a particular player who challenged the NHL draft age that caused them to change it.
EDIT: found it – it was Ken Linseman
http://www.originalhockeyhalloffame.com/news-events/linseman.html
“There are of course plenty of exceptions and the teams can take steps to protect a young player, having them stay with a player and their family for example. On the financial side, if a young player is considered ready to play and a team wants to draft him in the first rounds I feel he should have that right. He could have a bad year or get injured staying another year in junior or college and have lost a great financial opportunity. At age 18 we are considered adults and can be drafted into the military or go to jail if we commit a crime. We should have the right to work/play hockey if somebody is willing to pay us.”
defmn,
NBA changed their draft age to 19 a few years back
Has Speeds approved this?
The draft age of 18 was the result of a court challenge way back when. I can’t remember if it was American or Canadian based but my failing memory seems to recall that it had something to do with the draft age in the U.S.
I’ve tried to find reference to this on the net on several occasions without luck though so it is just a memory from long ago.
Anybody know how deep this draft is?
Just pondering if due to lack of picks is there value to trade back from the first round and get multiple seconds.
Otherwise, yes, fully on board with some Jack Quinn, Medicine Man.
Best since 2019.
That’s very impressive.