So John Prine passed away and we found out about it yesterday. First time I ever heard of him was the day I bought his debut album at a second-hand store. Great luck, finding brilliance in a bargain bin. I will tell you the songs spoke to me the minute the vinyl saw the needle, and have been part of my life every day since. Just give me one thing that I can hold on to, to believe in this living is just a hard way to go.
I learned about Muhlenberg County and found songs of desperation and melancholy that matched my own. In a way, I went about collecting life experiences and then those life moments found a home between the grooves. Angel from Montgomery. Six O’Clock News. Paradise. Lake Marie. John Prine made this misfit feel like he belonged somewhere worthwhile.
People use words like ‘connect’ and ‘chemistry’ but John Prine’s music was more than those things. The best songwriters pull emotion out of the air, capture them in words and rhyme. The listener comes along later to match their experience to the song that speaks to them.
John Prine spoke to me, he was a gift from above. I hope he’s in heaven today with Wanda and James Lewis, with Elizabeth and Marie and the girl in the Appalachian Greyhound station. Stranger in the closet, lock the diary. The past is running faster, singing harmony.
The cuckoo clock has died of shock, and the windows feel no pane. The air’s as still as the throttle on a funeral train. RIP John Prine.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
- Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
- Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
- Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
- Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
We’ve talked about Slepyshev a lot recently, good to see the club is progressing and perhaps we’ll see an announcement in the coming days. Where does he fit? If he plays RW, I think the depth chart might be Kassian-Yamamoto-Slepyshev-Archibald, meaning Alex Chiasson is on the outside. Slepyshev over Chiasson adds speed and a shooter, Chiasson’s size, rugged play and skill have value but are duplicated elsewhere (Kassian).
If he plays LW, Athanasiou-Nuge-Nygard-Slepyshev might be the depth chart, meaning Jujhar Khaira and James Neal are down the line. I like the idea of bringing back players who didn’t get a full lash at an NHL job (Teemu Hartikainen photo via Rob Ferguson).
I like Slepyshev, per 82 NHL games he scored 8-11-19 and that’s in 11:12 a night. He also scored three even-strength goals during the 2017 playoffs, tied for second on the Oilers.
This is good news for draft aficionados. Edmonton would draft No. 20, No. 82, No. 144, No. 175 and No. 206 based on winning percentage. I think we’ll see at least one pick added.
COLBY CAVE
What a terrible turn for a gifted athlete and suddenly none of this sports stuff matters at all. Fans everywhere praying for he and his family and good news. The suddenness of the event (as I understand it) reminded me of Normand Léveillé and his shortened career. Please get better Colby Cave, we’re all worried about you. Godspeed.
This is my list, I’ll have another one up late April, here is the March edition. There are some outstanding players on this list.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have much to discuss. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will discuss Ken Holland’s avail (Slepyshev, draft pick from Neal trade, negotiating with Filip Berglund and Markus Niemelainen) and Colby Cave’s situation. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk UFC Island and undervalued MLB pitchers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I anticipate the cap will be essentially flat around that level (maybe nominal increases) for a good 3-6 years – they will be making up the lost $1.1B in revenue this year (well, I guess $550MM on the cap) and then the cap number being artificial next year with projected revenues. Hopefully revenues increase after next year in the normal course plus the US TV deal still comes in as expected and the cap will then be less than 50% of HRR and the owners will claw back what’s owed.
New for The Athletic: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
https://theathletic.com/1730612/2020/04/09/lowetide-why-jack-quinn-is-a-perfect-2020-draft-fit-for-the-oilers/
Why is being a RHS important?
Balance.
Seattle revenue…no matter the expansion fee will be part of HHR.
Remember they have already sold out season tickets and will have merchandise sales etc..
Ahh, so you misstated your premise. 😉
That would mitigate some effects, IF the status quo in Seattle remains the same (Boeing is waving hello). By itself, it is nowhere near enough.
The point is… in Economics avoiding short term deep pain in return for medium term somewhat lesser pain is rarely a good strategy. I can’t actually think of an exception off the top of my head… but to play it safe, I will say, “rarely”.
Haula does seem like a good option, I’m more having trouble pricing him. What’s reasonable, what’s he likely to get paid? (continuing to use the current NHL salary structure since we can’t predict what changes might come).
In terms of hockey analysis right now, people need to live their lives how they’re going to live them. For me, distraction is sometimes useful, especially when a problem isn’t something I can easily control. I completely understand if others can’t or don’t want to do the same, and likewise if they aren’t interested so much in hockey talk now. These certainly are strange times.
Well the thing is, any present analysis is merely going to echo in empty canyons right now and will have to be revived and rehashed once the League is good to go and fans return their attention to hockey… so why waste effort now is my opinion.
But I would say the starting point is asking the community, fro the POV of Holland… what attributes must the 3C have, what attributes would they like to see, but aren’t critical, and what attributes are luxuries, but great if you can get them. And then based on how much of all of that one can get, what would be a good price point.
For me a big one is RH shot and ability to take PK FOs. Haula, for eg, doesn’t fit either of those requirements.
Yes, certainly there will be less of an audience for hockey talk or analysis these days than there might normally be. I look this stuff up for myself and my own understanding of a player. If others find it interesting that’s great too, but I honestly would do the same most of the time even if I wasn’t going to post it on Lowetide. So there’s no wasted effort in this case.
On Haula, he has a lot of attributes Holland would want in a 3C. I agree RH would be ideal but I don’t view it as a dealbreaker. And on PK face-offs, Haula is an exceptional FO guy (53-55% generally) and actually has a decent PK history. He was a regular PKer in Minnesota, and a secondary one in Vegas and Carolina. I was surprised to find his results on the PK have been excellent, so I do think he’d be able to fill that role.
Seattle expansion money is not in the HRR.
The TV contract is the only thing that can possibly save this strategy being proposed, and it is by no means a sure saviour.
I have no idea, but does it really matter?
On some level of course it does, but NHL hockey will continue. Life more broadly will go on.
If HRR goes down substantially likely everyone will have to take a haircut. And maybe there will be hundreds of compliance buyouts on the market that will have to settle for 500k or 300k deals. I’ll still watch.
Let’s say they try to muddle through as the strategy proposes by keeping the cap flat for 3 years.
And then lets say HRR is actually poorer next year then it was this year and despite the cap freeze, there’s murderous escrow.
That may lead to a work stoppage, ie no CBA and no hockey till there is one.
Or rather than having a 15 percent rollback and buyouts over three years, because they kept it flat originally, they’re forced into bigger rollbacks in the future.
As a fan, seeing our up and coming org stymied by a stupid League strategy won’t be a pleasurable experience.
What happens if they lose a franchise? What happens if some owners want to sell, for eg Katz? He’s already afflicted by a locally deflationary economy sans Covid, which, given that he’s likely leveraged in some way, is a killer on the pocketbook.
I took the progression from “deep hockey analysis seems kind of pointless” to “what if sales are down 16%… what then” to mean something close to “it’s pointless to talk about anything hockey related until we know what the fallout will be from this”.
It absolutely does matter what the fallout is and how it’s dealt with (maybe more so than I realize). And it’s fair to worry whether this, and the AB economy, will affect the Oilers more than the average team. Still, most probably in the big picture NHL hockey will continue much as it has (on the surface level at least).
Important to remember that Seattle expansion money and the new US television deal will be in play.
The TV deal may take a hit but it will almost assuredly be higher.
Let’s say they get 82 games in next year… (could happen lol)
Over the course of those 82 games, if attendance, jersey sales etc are 16 percent lower than pre-Covid this year, HRR will actually be less next year than it was this year.
What then?
Hmm. One wonders what years they will spread the pain of next season over?
Side eye
His name has been bandied about this site quite a bit these past two months, so I’d say such a signing would have a lot of support. I haven’t looked into his numbers personally… deep hockey analysis seems kind of pointless right now.
I’m trying to remember my Prine viewings today
– twice at the Folk Festival, one 85/86 with guitar only, and a few years later with a band
– 1984 at the Jubilee with Steve Goodman
– I’m sure once more but…. the old noodle is, in fact, an old noodle.
At that 84 gig, Goodman was dying.
He had leukemia and passed away in September.
Goodman’s songs were full of life, a celebration.
Prine’s songs were a dirge [grammar!], very sad.
I remember being really happy to see the Folkfest gig with the band – a joyous concert compared to the first time I saw him.
The one thing the league has going for it that hasn’t always been the case is that I think Fehr & Bettman respect each other’s professionalism.
You don’t hear the constant sniping that used to characterize the relationship.
Yup, I see them setting the cap around $82M for the next 3-4 years.
Ryan Pike @RyanNPike
@reporterchris appearance on @Steve_Dangle podcast: sounds like salary cap will probably be stuck around $81.5m for next few seasons.
Just a rumor but if so it means the NHL and the PA will try spread the pain of this lost season over multiple years so the escrow won’t hurt as bad.
***
If the league was to pro-rate any results, it would affect all manner of rookie bonus clauses as well as this particular Oilers trade clause. If the NHL and the PA are looking to “shave” some money to decrease the escrow going forwaard, not having to pay as many rookie bonuses would be one area they would easily agree on. Those ELC guys would have very little leverage to protest.
I was also thinking about rookie and other player bonuses. The Players Assoc. would have a strong interest and argument for pushing those to be pro-rated. It would be kinda unfair if they weren’t. Though at the same time, things like Mike Smith’s playoff bonuses get dicey real fast. How do you pro-rate rounds won and stuff like that?
Anyway, I can see games played, points and other performance bonuses getting pro-rated, but so many of the trade-related bonuses involve playoff performance that it would be incredibly difficult territory to get into mediating. Who knows, but my guess is that trade/draft pick related clauses wouldn’t be pro-rated for that reason.
Erik Haula.
How much would he cost as a UFA? And what is he worth? Still a significant injury risk?
Looks like a really great 3C option to me, likely not attainable (this assumes a compliance buyout for Neal is available). Would be curious what folks think.
Amen brother.
Why are we even talking about moving Nuge off PP1?
Is a 30% success rate not good enough?
I don’t disagree at all – just trying to go with the flow and find a way to fit Slepy in to PP1.
Just for the sake of Oilers conversation – not a ton to talk about.
Pardon?
I don’t think it makes any sense to put Nuge on PP2. The team had an historically good PP this year and Nuge was a critical piece of the puzzle. In fact, I think you can argue the PP is the strongest part of his game. The team proved this year that you don’t need two PP units. It’s weird, in your examples PP2 is better than PP1.
This is gut-wrenching:
https://twitter.com/ArchivistSports/status/1248020934520270848
It sure is. Man.
My heart hurts for the young lady and their families and close friends.
I cannot imagine the situation.
Right now emotions are running very high in my household.
I cannot imagine.
I just looked this up and it’s even more pathetic than I first posted. It’s actually only TWICE beyond the first round in the last 30 years.
Another fun fact: Cup winners in ’89, then they rested on their laurels never winning a round for the next 15 years!
LT
Thanks for the tribute to John Prine
He was a great songwriter who wrote a lot of profound words
Also had a sense of humour
Just listened to “In Spite of Ourselves” and said thanks John for the laughs as well as the serious stuff
Who turned on the fire hose?
What i heard was he was talking about the strict conditions of the trade – 21 goals and 10 more than Lucic – that didn’t happen so no pick.
I anticipate that will be the final analysis but this is an unprecedented situation and, for all we know, the league will do something with these types of conditions – its unlikely but we don’t know.
At the end of the day, if they do happen to have a playoffs (which seems all but impossible to me at this point) its simply not going to be fair for all teams.
They aren’t going to finish off the regular season schedule so, no matter what they do, it won’t be equal and fair among all 31 teams.
– If they go with current standings points – not fair to some such as those with a higher points percentage
– if they go with points percentage – not fair to a team that has actually accumulated more points.
– if they make is so that all teams play a equal games (be it 72, 76 or back to 68) – not fair to some teams that have played more on the road or more against higher end teams, etc.
I look forward to the official cancellation with a focus on starting the new season in full in early October.
Lets get a “normal off-season” with QO deadline, draft, buyout deadline, draft, cap set, free agency, development camps, training camps and regular season.
Starting a new season in early October may not even be do-able but, for me, that should be the current focus.
Tough to make material changes to PP1.
I have no issue with Chiasson or Neal being replaced by Slepy but the “right shot from the off-side” isn’t the role he’d be replacing.
Its Nuge over there that would be replaced by Slepy if we are setting up the one-timer.
I have time for Nuge being QB of PP2 but only if it gets a real shot.
WIth that said, maybe PP2 gets a real shot if Mc/Drai stay:
PP1: McDavid, Drai, Slep, Neal (Chiasson), Klef
PP2: McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Bear, X
I’ve read that premise a few times but its not like his current contract walks him to UFA.
He’s currently an RFA so the Oilers or any acquiring team can sign him for 2, 3, 4 years.
He could be signed any day for, say, 3 X $2.2M, for example.
Its not like Nuge or Larsson who have current contracts that expire after one more year (and they can’t sign new contracts until July).
Benning can opt for arbitration. i.e. He has a pathway to UFA status that he himself controls.
He’s not a pending UFA but him being under control for only 1 year I’m sure affects his value some. Arbitration eligible, as Godot notes doesn’t help either. Nuge and Larsson also wouldn’t bring as much in return with only 1 year left as if they had 3 years to UFA. We’ll see I guess, I hope some GM thinks highly of Benning.
Ya, I mentioned this earlier this afternoon (or this morning) – after your post but without reading it yet.
I take Slepy has he had the better season this past season, is the bigger player and has the better pedigree (drafted in the 3rd round of the NHL after the top pick in the KHL draft previously, etc.).
And, he’s Oilers property.
But yeah, I agree with Slepyshev over Barabanov if given the choice.
One related point. Both players have been surrounded with excellent teammates, but the numbers suggest Barabanov was linemates with Gusev when he scored 46 points in 18-19, with Gusev scoring 82 to lead the KHL. I think Gusev pumped Barabanov more that season than any of Slepyshev’s teammates this season.
I expect the BOG will be ruling on a great many issues and this will be one of them.
Exactly. Unless it’s something where the PA has a CBA interest it’s all about the BOG. Gary and the BOG change status quo defaults only with strong consensus. It would only take a few owners to object to reinterpreting those vesting clauses. Very surprised if vesting terms on conditional picks change from literal counts in original terms. Possible that that a change gets buried in a big package and BOG does not touch line items. But Gary in the past has avoided retouching details.
OriginalPouzar,
Holland specifically mentioned the trade notes filed with the league and said he didn’t believe there were any conditions relating to pro-rating. I’d like to see the trade notes but by the sounds of it, the condition won’t vest (assuming end of regular season).
NHLPA and CBA interpretation won’t be involved with this. So I’d expect no vesting unless somehow the BOG wades in with close to unanimity. That’s less likely than more games being played. YMMV.
I was under the same impression – I swear I read after the KHL officially cancelled their season that the KHL contracts would expire at the end of the month.
I was surprised by the news of the signing yesterday.
Maybe its one of those “unofficial things” that will get made official on May 1 (I think the Oilers had something similar with one of Nygard or Haas – the signing was reported in advance of it being official).
I would say they are comparable – I don’t know a ton about Barabanov but Slepy did have the much better offensive season (opposite to 2018/19) and has the higher pedigree.
With respect to where Slepy might fit, in my opinion, he was a serviceable bottom 6 player with some upside when he left for Russia.
Given he’s, from accounts, matured, his offence has spiked and he’ll come with offensive confidence, and he’s starting his prime years, I can’t imagine he’s not at least a serviceable bottom 6 player – that is his floor in my opinion.
I think he also has a chance to play some top 6 wing – he’ get size, speed, skill and a good shot, he very well could mesh with one of Drai or McDavid.
I think he can be slotted in as the Gagner-replaement – a player that can move around the lineup and even fill in with some skill in the top 6.
Maybe we hit lightning again and he has a Kailer-like effect and solidifies a top 6 spot? Not likely but not totally out of the question.
One of my fave memories – listening to Calgary post game radio after a regularly administered humiliating loss.
With respect to the Holland quote on the Neal 3rd round pick, I was excited when I read Rishaug’s tweet but, after I listened to the verbal, I realized that Holland was just speculating and this wasn’t based on any direction or information from the league.
Holland was asked about the pick, thought about it as he does, stated that terms of the condition and based his comment on that. I would think he is right but his assumption wasn’t/isn’t based on any directive from the league – I think its unlikely but the league could so some sort of pro-rating or something unique with respect to conditions.
The book isn’t closed on that one in my opinion (but mostly shut I would think).
Very much look foward to hearing about the signing of Slepyshev (1 year @ $1.2M) and Berglund (max ELC of $925K, maybe some performance bonuses for $300K).
Maybe even Niemalainen – would be great to get him under an AHL contract to not count on the 50 but probably unlikely.
See Calgary Flames, aka first round fodder.. Playoff participation ribbon record holders. Only 3 times beyond the first round in the last 30 years, fun fact that. Bunch of squirts!
Used to.
Used to is better than never for forever!?
Oilers fans used to measure the season by regular finals appearances. First round matchups are for squirts.
A proposal to decide the NHL standings by rolling back games played to 68.
Sets up a Battle of Alberta in the first round.
https://www.tsn.ca/seravalli-how-a-68-game-rollback-might-be-nhl-s-most-fair-standings-format-1.1464422?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true
Looked at that and there is an ever fairer approach.
Not only do pts% and 68 games have the same 16 playoff teams they have the same 8 home teams.
So let’s exploit the matchup differences between the options. By pts% let the home teams draft their road team opponents within conference.
Mind you I’m happy to play the Dys round 1. Flames are fine too but I’d prefer to win with fewer injuries.
How do you think that would change the WC matchups?
I’d guess St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas would pick from Nashville, Flames and Dys and Oil would get another Star studded 1st round.
As above I’d prefer std seeding by pts% and the Dys matchup.
The first review of John Prine penned by Roger Elbert.
https://www.rogerebert.com/features/john-prine-american-legend
Didn’t know who Prine was but now I see why you’re all so sad. Your trolling is forgiven.
Well, the good thing about having a first class head coach like Tippett is…
You can be sure, certain that whatever new player joins the team will be getting a proper butcher’s hook.
The CSS rankings.
https://www.nhl.com/news/alexis-lafreniere-rated-number-one-north-american-skater-final-ranking/c-316535070
Give my stomach to Milwaukee if they run out of beer
Put my socks in a cedar box just get ’em outta here
Venus de Milo can have my arms look out, I got your nose
Sell my heart to the Junk man but give my love to Rose
But Please don’t bury me down in that cold cold ground
No I druther have ’em cut me up and pass me all around
Throw my brain to a hurricane the blind can have my eyes
The deaf can take both my ears if they don’t mind the size
RIP John, wherever you are
Thanks for the insight N64.
We might want to pump the brakes on Schleppy a bit. While he’s likely a decent bottom six player, not sure where he fits on the PP. With the roster as it stands now, there is one spot available on PP1. That’s the net front presence role and we have a bunch of guys who can do that.
Bringing Slepyshev back under a competent HC, and with the more-proper group of talented players around now is a recipe for success. He’s a legit talent with NHL size and instincts. Potential for a huge win for both player and organization here. Get it done. And put the man on the powerplay already. That shot from the off-wing is a beauty.