Starting in 2015, I began ranking 120 players per draft based on math and a few other things I believed. Beginning that year, I started back drafting my list against the Oilers selections.
I wondered if my ‘math’ rankings would outshine Edmonton’s scouts, or at least hold its own. I decided to wait five years to give the prospects time to develop. We’re five years past the 2015 draft. How did the Lowetide list do against the Oilers scouts?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
- New Murat Ates: My favourite player: Ryan Smyth
- New Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
- New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
- Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
- Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
- Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
- Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
THE 2015 DRAFT
Oilers scouts must have been beside themselves watching all those draft picks being dealt, but five years later there’s a lot to be proud of for the organization. McDavid is the franchise cornerstone but the lottery took care of that pick.
The scouts get credit for the Jones, Bear and Marino picks and that’s a lot of quality. The 2015 draft already has four NHL players, matching 2010 as the only year in the decade to manage it. The 2015 foursome will fly higher than 2010.
My selections included Bear and little else of note. He’s the only player my list picked who is on track for an NHL career (McDavid aside).
Decision: Major edge to the Oilers scouts.
THE 2016 DRAFT
Four years after and this draft went sideways in a hurry. Puljujarvi was the right pick but his handling by the organization was a comedy of errors. Benson looks like he might be able to help and the organization could be on the verge of signing Niemelainen and Berglund this summer. Wells turned pro with an NHL contract but this draft will cross the five-year finish line in trail position.
The Lowetide list also took Puljujarvi, but followed up with DeBrincat who was a second-round home run. I also like the fact Abramov got a cup of coffee and hope for a late ‘Marino’ spike from him in 2020-21.
Decision: Major edge for the Lowetide list, and unlikely to improve for the Oilers with one season left in the five-year window.
THE 2017 DRAFT
The Oilers have what looks like a solid draft developing. Yamamoto overcame injuries and some pedestrian AHL numbers with a fantastic run with the big club beginning January 2020. Samorukov is tracking like a future NHLer and Maksimov has promise. Skinner hasn’t emerged but has had some good months in a tough situation.
Tolvanen trails Yamamoto but both men have talent and could become productive players for the next several years. Reedy is tracking well enough to be considered a prospect, and Chmelveski has a chance too.
Decision: Edge Edmonton, Yamamoto looks more dynamic than Tolvanen and Samorukov is a quality prospect.
THE 2018 DRAFT
The Oilers have Bouchard, who has the resume of a successful offensive defenseman and appears ready. McLeod and Rodrigue had good seasons and Kesselring has a lot of fans who work in the hockey industry.
My list features several men who are pushing up depth charts. Smith had a terrific year, he’s going to be a fine defenseman. Fagemo and Hillis posted strong seasons and Olofsson is on track as a prospect. Nyman had a solid year in Finland.
Decision: Too soon to know, both lists are performing well.
THE 2019 DRAFT
One year in the Oilers have several prospects performing well. Broberg and Lavoie played at the WJ’s and did some good things in league games. Konovalov had an uneven year but remains the best goalie prospect in the system. Blumel, Mazura and Denezhkin are progression.
My list has Kaliyev, who is a quality scorer whose numbers improved only slightly in draft plus one. Matthew Robertson improved across the board and is emerging as a nice two-way defenseman. Blake Murray didn’t score 50 goals this season but did improve his points per game. Billy Constantinou had a solid year.
Decision: Much too soon to know, no player on either list spiked in a way that suggests an impact player is about to emerge.
CONCLUSION
Edmonton’s 2015 draft was exceptional, full value for procuring four NHL players without a second or a third-round selection. The team’s 2017 draft appears to have two handsome returns (Yamamoto, Samorukov) although those eggs aren’t fully hatched yet. The 2018 and 2019 drafts continue to matriculate.
Edmonton’s sore spot is the 2016 draft, there is time and Puljujarvi, Benson and possibly others have NHL talent. Important to salvage something from that draft summer.
The Lowetide list hit a big fly in 2016, DeBrincat is the kind of selection math uncovers annually. The difference is DeBrincat cashed big, so as opposed to being an astute selection the young man had a fairly immediate impact on the franchise (Chicago) smart enough to pick him. The 2018 draft is also tracking well for the Lowetide list.
On the downside, the LT 2015 list got very little compared to the Oilers. As much as I can trumpet the DeBrincat selection, Edmonton’s scouts grabbed four useful pieces to only two from my list.
The 2017 list is reliant on Tolvanen turning out, there’s no one who looks like Samorukov. The 2019 list doesn’t look inspiring one year later.
Bottom line: Despite the DeBrincat selection, the Oilers scouts did a better job in these five drafts based on what we know today.
Goodbye Colby. Your time was short but how you lived and interacted with others was full. We will miss you. Goodbye Colby. RIP
RIO Colby Cave.
My Heart is so sad right now. Everything I have heard about Colby and is family is about how amazing people they are. The world is not as good a place as it was yrsterday.
You know, agreeing to disagree is a thing. Just saying.
Pettersson is gruel.
That’s about as sensical as your trolling this evening.
P.S. 3rd in the NHL in P/60 this season (min 200 minutes) – nonsense or simply a fact?
Those comparisons have nothing to do with the point – those players are not gruel.
Bergeron >>>> Horvat
I guess Horvat is Gruel.
Also. Rafferty >>>> Jones is a pure troll comment
Also. This year, Boeser was not >>>> Yamamoto.
Yamamoto had more G/G, P/G with all but no PP time, oh, and for under $900K.
I wasn’t going to comment, but weren’t you guys talking about drafted players?
Wow…time to go for a cleanse OP…that’s just nonsense.
WG was right.
Should probably screen shot the above comment.
Obviously not interesting in a mature conversation.
Malkin
Panarin
Yamamoto
Marchand
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=200&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Everyone of them a secondary player that every team in the league can replicate.
Gruel.
Just Vancouver….
Hughes >>>Bouchard.
Boeser>>>Yamamoto
Rafferty>>>Jones
Bear looks like a player..I wonder if Jett Woo will catch him.
Bear, Bouchard, Jones, Yamamoto – far from “gruel”.
Yes, correcting you and reading you change the conversation as oppossed to admitting error can indeed be tiresome, I agree.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
I was more thinking that if they had just drafted Segechev instead of JP. There seemed to be some rumoured interest from the usual Oilers sources leading up to the draft.
Ah. Totally agree.
I dismissed Sergachev outright at the time. The Leftorium was (is!) strong, so he wasn’t on my radar.
My focus was on PLD and Turtle because I didn’t see JP falling to us.
Gruel.
Berglund and Pulujarvi are distant bells that you keep ringing incessantly.
It is so tiresome,.
Of course, another strawman.
You said “gruel” outside the lottery pick.
I respond by positing that there are numerous “non-gruel”.
You move the goal posts by posting that all other teams draft good players.
Just like you being wrong about Berglund, wrong about Puljujarvi having zero value you are wrong about nothing but “gruel”.
Football the game I was best at has been an area I have been looking at lately
DET lions moves.
Like hockey I look at past performance seasons by position critical to Playoff success.
Here is an example of a post.
Many fans are educated and like to discuss system/ scheme philosophy.
But like the per snap identification for Mgmt decisions.
My Lions grabbed a standup LB 2nd rd in 2019 draft.
J. Tavai
A. Has Elite forward contact LB rates per snap like All pro/ Pro bowl seasons from
James Harrison,
K. Dansby,
L, David,
L. Timmons.
100+ comb TKL, 10+ TFL, 5 Sacks, 10QBH any combination of 15 QB contacts = (sk + QBH)
B. Tavai had Box/Free safety target per snap (45+ per season) rates in coverage.
With QB having worse than #32 (starter) passing rating in coverage.
Det brings in J. Collins
A. Elite Fwd contact LB
B. Elite coverage LB with 55+ targets and QBH get worse than #32 Passing rating
C. 30 total pressures (SK + QBH + Pressures) nice addition to IDL pressures.
Gives 2 250+ LB with tackle/coverage skills teams are looking for from 237LB I Simmons LB in draft.
Our Box safety Walker was 100+ comb TKL and top 15 S Pass defended
Most of are DB/Lb had terrible coverage (QB rating) results.
Due to 21.5 Total pressures from (1777 snaps) Harrison, Daniels, Robinson, Atkins, Hand.
First 3 are gone. Robinson (12 Total pressures) signing for 2yr 8.5M per in LAR.
Quinn signed:
Nick Williams DT/DE 2yr 5M per (531 snaps) 6 sk, 27.5 Total pressures.
D. Shelton (NT) 2yr 4M per (492 snaps) 18 Total pressure.
They signed more than double the unit sacks for 500K more than Robinson
We know QB Passing ratings levels were
PB QB 78.7 (#32 QB Mayfield 78.8)
Bott 5 84.3
Bott 10 86.4
Bott 15 below average 91.1
Trufant 1CB (4.39 40) Covers best reciever (87.6 Bott #13 QB)
J. Kearse 6’4” 215 big pkg SCB/Coverage LB (64.6 PB QB)
D. Harmon FS (60.6 PB QB)
Patricia has the ability to run 3 front – 8DB scheme
N. Williams (27.5 TP), D,Shelton NT (18 TP), T. Flowers (53.5 TP)
J. Collins JLB
Oruwariye CB, J. Kearse SCB/LB, Tavai ILB, Walker Box S, Coleman SCB (84.6 bott 6 QB)
D. Harmon FS
Yeah…there is no other team that has acquired two potential second pairing D in the last five years.
It’s remarkable unless you actually take a look.
Then there is the case of a top six winger.
Anyone get one in the last five years?
Vancouver got four.
I’ll take:
– 2 legit every day NHL d-men at 22 years old, drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds – one already a top pairing player
– a legit top 6 winger, maybe top line winger soon, drafted in the back half of the 1st round.
– I’ll take an AHL all-star in his rookie pro 20 year old season.
Lots of other potential NHLers.
Not all can show themselves as early as legit 2nd pairing d-man Brogan Rafferty……
rickithebear,
I used to watch My Self Reliance quite a bit, but found his videos a bit slow/boring even if the info was very good.
You might enjoy Kris Harbour Natural Building. Just saw an impressive DIY of his yesterday where he built a 1kW wind turbine out of scrap and salvaged materials. Got the wheels turning for my own purposes. Another channel worth a look, from a completely different approach/environment, is ‘homesteadonomics’
As for the farming/gardening channels I can ask my better half what she likes and report back to you if you like. There are some smart bits of information to be gleaned from a variety of sources if you know where to look. You’d probably enjoy Joel Salatin and his methods.
Harpers Hair,
Considering how good their drafting has been since OTT came into the league? It’s actually impressive how deep in it they are right now. At least there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Best news they could get is a team sale to a hands-off owners with deep(er) pockets.
I’ve always rooted for OTT, seeing how they were set up by a bunch of old BotB and aren’t MTL or TOR. Have fielded some fine teams and talents over the years.
Yep.
Keep safe friend.
ashley,
I’d rather have Draisaitl AND Nurse (or Klefbom) plus whatever happens with JP than Subban and Segachev.
Maybe that’s just me.
Death By Misadventure,
Agree to a large extent.
The other half of the problem, too many past due veterans and career AHL’ers, seems to have been solved in recent years.
A full slate of draft picks (or more) in the next few years should have the team humming considering the recent history of improved drafting.
Yeah the Oilers certainly haven’t drafted an impact player in the 2nd for quite a while (I guess Petry in 2006 is the last).
On Jesse, I agree it would be ideal to move him for someone that contributes sooner than a 2nd round pick. But theoretically moving him for #33 would still be something I’d do since I think it’s good value overall (the higher end of what’s apparently been offered so far).
Draisaitl is here for at least 5 more seasons, McDavid at least 6. The window isn’t just the next 2-3 years. A pick around #33 could well result in a cheap and useful player within the McDavid/Draisaitl window (even if it doesn’t extend beyond their current deals). Looking at players picked between 28 and 38 in relatively recent years:
2017 (so this season was draft +3)
Jokiharu was an NHL regular
Hague and Boqvist played more NHL than AHL games
7 of 11 players have played NHL games
2016 (draft +4)
Steel is a regular
Asplund, Peeke, Kyros, Hajek played significant games
8 of 11 have played NHL games
Debrincat was drafted 39th
2015 (draft +5)
Beauvallier is a regular (has been since draft +2)
Fischer is a regular (has been since draft +3)
Dermott is a regular (has been for 2+ yrs)
Aho is a star (has been a regular since draft +2)
Carlo is a regular (has been since draft +2)
Stephens became a regular this season
8 of 11 have played NHL games
2014 (draft +6)
Kempe is a regular (has been since draft +3.5)
Lemieux is a regular (has been since draft +5)
Barbashev is a regular (has been since draft +3.5)
Pettersson is a regular (has been since draft +5)
Demko is a backup now
9 of 11 have played NHL games
There really is a pretty decent chance of getting a player at the beginning of the 2nd who will contribute within the Draisaitl/McDavid window. I see your POV about in terms of holding out to get something that will be useful sooner, but trading Puljujarvi and taking the pick has value IMO too.
I think I could agree with all of this if McDavid & Draisaitl hadn’t already played so many seasons with so little success. I know that is kind of a pathetic response because you can’t speed up the present because of a lousy past but there it is.
The core of this team needs some success and the sooner the better.
I get it. We agree on the ideal outcome I think (for me that would be Puljujarvi and Benning for a 3C solution).
Only other thing I’ll add is that a 2nd round pick now would be better than a 2nd round pick next year (if an better deal for Puljujarvi doesn’t materialize between now and next year).
To me it’s if you view yourself as an offensive player – meaning not concerned about a rounded game – you have to be an elite scorer.
A lot of fails barring injuries come along these lines.
Be Pat Kane or Matthews or Ovi or dig deeper.
Every sport, all the time.
My father was raised on the farm in Rocky Mtn house ( rimby hall).
Travelled the world for 1 of every 2 weeks.
Then back in the garden after work (Satelite Station) with his tailored suits on ( drove my mom mad)
It is interesting watching You tube seeing all the ideas about gardening.
Then reading articles on gardening method succes for zone 3A/B
Figuring how I can place 3ft by 8ft garden to maximize
– placement of difrent Kinds of Sun hr and shade plants
– deciding On diffrent bed mixes.
– deciding on plants for each bed.
– deciding on planting space per vegetable type per bed.
– deciding on high intensity spacing for bed and 67LT utility buckets.
– deciding what high return Veg 5times more than traditional, my family will eat to grow.
It is Awsome.
That is why have not been posting.
————————————————————————-
Plus trying to convert the uncovertable on this site
into using proven Championship Scientific theories.
(kind of nailed it VGK 100% of exp draft players)
Home plate
Open closed shot
Rovers
Transition def
Cup core
Was growing tiresome for me and most posters.
————————————
Someone mentioned Huala in past post.
He was one of my prospects ( Exp draft) That was sure to be a top 125 Fwd with better Even and PP usage.
—————————————————
With Cancer restriction I watch
“My self Reliance”
And
“Andrew Camaratta”
I
Very well said.
I will note that a draft pick, or the player it’s used on, can be used as currency to address holes in the short term. So it’s not necessarily sunk cost for 3-5 years until the player is ready.
That aside, I do agree that 3C is the Oilers most pressing need, that it would be great to solve it by acquiring a young player under control, and that using Puljujarvi or other assets like Jones/Benning etc (or picks) would be ideal.
Thin gruel outside the first overall lottery pick.
Well, in 2015, they get a McDavid, a Bear and a Jones (and also a Marino but….).
In 2017 they got a Yamamoto and ______ – there are a couple or three legit NHL prospects.
In 2018, well, its too early to say but there is a Bouchard and a couple other legit NHL prospects.
If their owner wasn’t batshit crazy they would have a perennial contender.
I recall a lot of smoke around Sergechev in 2016 before we got distracted by the fact that one of the “big 3” might fall because Columbus was going to pass on the Finns.
It’s a shame how it unfolded. Sergechev would have been great on this team.
Besides the consistent busts when picking at the draft, I always thought one of the issues with the Oilers being stuck in perpetual rebuild was that they never had enough picks to actually build a sizable core to move forward with. They needed a couple of 2011 drafts where they added a Nuge and Klef in one draft. But alas, that beauty first round was followed by 2012 and Yakupov.
Ottawa, for all it’s troubles, is doing this right. To be determined how it all turns out, but at least they are trying to build through the draft aggressively.
Thanks…taking one for the team.?
The day is heavy for us but I did want to let you know that the firehose comment from a couple of days ago made me giggle so thanks for that.
Thanks for the update. Sounds like he will sign with the Oilers, which is good news. It would have been nice to see him in NA and have him as an NHL option this year but you can definitely see the logic from the players POV. Hope he has another strong development year in the SHL. Hope all is well where you are.
Don’t know if it’s been confirmed here…but Barry Allan did pass this week…confirmed by TDM who was a close friend of Barry.
jtblack,
Detroit’s 1989 draft was pretty good too.
4 players with >1000 games played, and Konstantinov was almost halfway to it when his career was cut short at age 30.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005492.html
Great to see you posting again Ricki…was worried about you.
Mrs. Hair and I spent the day planting…all from seed this year as garden centres are pretty much all closed here on the Island.
Something primeval about digging in the dirt…very therapeutic.
I assume you gentlemen are not in Edmonton. A long way from gardening here still 🙁
Just heard and came directly here. Devastating news on Colby Cave. Most of the difficulties that each of us deal with are shown to be trivial when something like this happens. Find your significant others and give them hugs … and be thankful that you still can.
When it comes to adding and excluding players on cup winning rosters
I see you identified
+ ve Impact
And
-ve IMPACT players.
Is drafting a player who does not sign with the team “good scouting?”
Off to basement to continue building frames for my version of Trug raised garden beds.
Learning garden is such an interesting multivariable approach Technology.
Being forced to move to eco skills of 10,000 yrs ago.
😉 have a nice day!
Yeah, I agree all of our speculations are more about what might have to be done rather than perfect in and of themselves. Holland is the only guy who has to run all the possible scenarios through his head and pick the one he thinks best for the team.
As you know I really like Jones. I actually think he could be better than Bear even though I know that is a lonely position at the moment.
So I don’t suggest trading him lightly. The problem is that the LD has lots of promise but nobody that is ready to take a top 4 job away from Nurse of Klefbom next season and we need a 3C for next season so Holland has to either overpay for an older one as a UFA or use a trading chip and LD seems to be where we have them at the moment.
I think JP would have to be the plus, not the centerpiece of the trade – I think they’d be looking for a much much more proven player in a Domi trade – like a Bear level value.
I also just get a bad feeling about Domi and his potential contract – he rubs me the wrong way for some reason and think he’s going to demand “the moon”.
There’s no reason to be mean. 😉
Solid post and good thoughts.
Just a few random things that came to me as I read it:
1) I could see Benning for a pick but, at the end of the day, the likelihood of that pick ever becoming as good as Matt Benning is slim. Not saying it shouldn’t be done – adding prospects and having contracts and players under team control does have value. I do not think that a spot needs to be “opened up” for Bouchard. He’ll either force his opportunity at camp or, if not, it will come shortly after – teams need many d-men in a year
2) If the Oilers can get rid of Rusty’s last year without retaining at all or taking back a negative value contract, that’s a massive win – a 6th, being an actual positive asset back, would be a Lucic like win. No offence to Rusty, I like him and he’s an NHL d-man but that left side depth is real and Holland needs that $4M
3) I agree on 3C being the one external acquisition required this off-season and I do see the premise of using Jones as part of the acquisition cost – I understand Klef and Nurse blocking him from the top 4. At the same time, I think this might be a terrible time to move Jones – he had just solidified himself as an every day NHL d-man and showed that he very well could be a top 4 guy very soon but I don’t think he has that value yet around the league because he just started to show it. Its likely not “known” to other GM/scouts yet. Couple that with $800K for two years, likely to be a massive value contract……
He’s blocked by Klef and Nurse, yes, but what a great 3LD depth option and injury cover – at $800K.
Of course, Nurse is 2 years and the UFA – Jones may not be blocked for that long – I imagine his 3rd contract will be much cheaper than Nurse’s UFA deal…
Your posts are soooooo much more realistic than many posters on this blog.
100%
That’s good. Hospital in which I work, and I think most are same, palliative, newborns and ICUs, and that’s it for visitors. He would have been most likely neurosurg ICU.
Yes, initial reports from a few days ago said nobody could be by his side, glad to hear that wasn’t the case at the end.
I don’t disagree with any of that but to answer your question I wait at least another year before I accept a draft pick. Jesse is young. A year is a lifetime for a 21 year old. I hold for at least a year unless I get what I want.
It is funny you mention the emergence of Jones, Bear and Yamomoto this year because they are a major reason why I don’t want to trade for a draft pick this summer. If you had asked me last summer how far away this team was from competing I wouldn’t have counted any of those three as significant pieces and so figured Chiarelli had screwed this team up so badly we were at least 3 years away from recovering. That would have allowed that draft pick for Jesse to be viable. Now? I think we are a lot closer because we only have a couple of spots to be in the mix. I never expect a team in a capped league to break camp with every position filled optimally because the money doesn’t work. But we are close. I don’t want to turn an asset into a four year wait.
Great info as always – thank you very much.
A bit disappointing that he wants to stay one more year in Sweden but I get it and it is what it is.
I now understand why both Howson and Holland have mentioned signing him but not sure if he’d be in North America or Sweden next year.
Lets just get that ELC signed by June and keep his rights – it will be a 2-year ELC (max) and the first year will burn off while he’s playing in the SHL next season. He could sign a 1-year ELC and then he’d be an RFA and could negotiate a one-way deal, if money is an issue.
He wanted to stay but the organization did not want to sign him – so he says.
SwedishPoster,
Thanks for the update, appreciate having the inside track on local prospects through your contributions.
Also interested in any updates from the current conditions surrounding your professional sphere, if you’re inclined. Keep safe over there.