This time a year ago, I would have told you that Kailer Yamamoto had the higher ceiling but that Tyler Benson was more of a sure bet to have an NHL career. I felt (still feel) Benson can find a role as a two-way winger while also having the talent to make it as a complementary player on a skill line. Is he on the verge of an NHL career?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Flashback: When ‘Oil Change’ revealed key details of Oilers’ 1979, 2010 drafts
- New Lowetide: Edmonton’s Sports Hall of Fame should have 3 founding members
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers forward Colby Cave dies at age 25
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘The world needs more Colbys’: Teammates and coaches mourn Colby Cave
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
- Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
- Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
- Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
- Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
- Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
- Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
LT 21-40 NHLE’S
Here we reach the annual ‘dazed and confused’ portion of my draft list. Players who were ranked high early and then struggled (Holloway) are mixed in with late breakers (Mysak) and I spend a couple of months figuring things out.
I’ve been moving Guhle down all year, now I think he’s too low. Neighbours could move up, but I think he’s going to have an Ethan Moreau career as opposed to being a consistent offensive contributor. Nothing wrong with that, but do you draft that player in the first round?
Ridly Greig will move up, Wallinder too, but the rest have issues and we could see several move down. Tomorrow: 41-63.
TYLER BENSON
Benson is tracking a little behind Dillon Dube, the two men were chosen in the same round of the same year and the numbers have been consistent over several years.
Benson has been a little behind each season, with age 19 seeing Dube spike and he arrived about six months (and counting) before Benson. Is it reasonable to suggest that Benson might play in 45 games next season? Post 14-20 points? I think that’s the range.
Ideally Benson gets an NHL center similar to Cooper Marody (RH, very skilled) although that player is not on the roster. He had limited minutes with Riley Sheahan as his pivot (45 minutes, 42.68 Corsi, 1-3 goals) and 11:52 with Gaetan Haas (82.35 Corsi, no goals).
- Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
- Nuge—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
- Tyler Benson—Colton Sissons—Josh Archibald
- Joakim Nygard—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson
- James Neal, Jujhar Khaira
- Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
- Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
- Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard
- Kris Russell
- Mikko Koskinen, Anton Khudobin
Miles to go before we’re discussing nuts and bolts solutions as a reality, but I think the key additions to the roster will include rookies Benson and Bouchard.
We don’t have meaningful data to control for Kailer on a non-Drai/Nuge line.
We do have meaningful data to compare Drai/Nuge w/o Kailer vs. Drai/Nuge with Kailer and the data is quite stunning.
WIth that said, you discount that data completely and I really struggle to understand why or how given the argument is that any player put in that position (with Drai/Nuge and with McDavid on another line) would succeed – the data seems to show otherwise.
Yamamoto is likely to move from the Draisaitl line to the McDavid line. Not sure we can argue he’ll be more responsible for that line’s success if it works out well.
– Good stuff on Kailer: its interesting to hear the other takes
– An argument makes an impact, when others mock, or misrepresent a point of view that is different than what the consesnus holds.
– In summary, I attribute much more of his amazing performance to the position he is in, and far less to simply Kailer’s presence. Consensus seems to be:” Kailer was sick, he made that line”
– Only when Kailer is not playing on that 2nd line, might we be able to see his “impact”, controlling for the other factors. I think it was a circumstance that he ran with, and props more to team.
– He’s been awesome, that line was revelation. Turned the team around. That’s how hockey narratives work. 108 PDO’s and 25% sh% don’t last. We will see. I hope he has a long career as a winger on a skilled line.
I think you describe Benning pretty well here.
The only thing I would differ on is his speed. He is a slow, awkward skater. This seems to show up mostly on puck retrievals. I think it also hurts him in 1 on 1 puck battles. He seems to lose his balance when engaging other players.
I know he throws the occassional open ice big hit, but he also spends a lot of time on his ass in the dzone.
That would be the strongest right side defense the Oilers could make with the current pieces.
But both Benning and Russell would have to get traded, with no salary retained, to make it fit under the cap.
I’ve mentioned this before, but it has always seemed a bit odd to me that Benson has never seen much time as a C. The reports of his leadership, his defensive responsibility, a team player, with grit, exceptional hockey IQ, and great passing ability all strike me as ideal qualities for playing C. Has anyone ever heard an explanation as to why he has been slotted as a winger for seemingly his whole young career? Maybe he’s the 3C solution some day. If Jesse comes back and Lavoie arrives in 21-22, that might be a pretty solid top 9. They talk a lot about his IQ, leadership and setup prowess. You’d think he’d be smart enough to make the transition.
Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Athanasiou / McDavid / Lavoie
Puljujarvi / Benson / Kassian
I bet Suncor, Husky, CNLR and the other big corps in the western Canadian oil patch have different thoughts on this notion.
Unfortunately for western Canada you are referencing a fading industry that hasn’t adapted and is experiencing a difficult period. In the democracy of Canada about a decade ago Shell oil paid less taxes that the gut pumping gas at a Shell gas station. That is one small example of “not economic Democracy”
Democracy is something totally separate from who pays taxes but just as a btw Shell – and every other large corporation – pays a huge amount in taxes.
They are collected by the government under the heading of ‘personal income tax’ but as the old maxim goes ‘follow the money’ and you will see that it is the employer who pays the tax. The rest of it is just a shell game with words for political purposes.
Nurse, Bear, Klefbom and Larsson were poor against mid-level and the soft parade. McDavid was 13-21 against mid-level competition. That should never happen, but it did.
It was not an anomaly, Oilers haven’t hammered the soft and mid-level opposition like the should for a couple of years now.
My guess is that the third and fourth line are getting outscored heavily, and that stumble by Leon’s line in December also contributed.
Benning has been excellent at outscoring since he arrived in the NHL, every season. A lot of it has come against the mid and lower levels. I think that has value.
I don’t think we can compare him to Nurse, Bear, Klefbom, Larsson because the four defenseman play so much in the most difficult game state.
Actually it is a composite of “district” (see demotic), + kratos “rule, strength” (see -cracy). Athens districts were called demos.
Atistotle has a great line about how both democrats and oligarchs are mistaken concerning their claims to rule because they both base them upon a single attribute rather than the whole of what makes us human.
Democrats claim democracy is just because men, being free by nature, all have an equal claim to govern.
Oligarchs claim that oligarchy is just because the rich and the poor are unequal because the former pay the bills that support the latter.
Aristotle, following Plato’s lead, argues that the natural divisions between the diversity that constitutes humanity are to be found in the objects and strengths of our desires with those concerned with material goods occupying the lower strata of that hierarchical ranking.
Marx, many centuries later, fails the test as a philosopher because he fails to account for those whose strongest desires transcend the material. 😉
It’s strictest meaning is “rule by the people”. If The People don’t have the rule in the economic world, it matters little what is offered to The People politically, unless it is to redress that particular wrong.
Some day I will make the term “economic democracy” famous lol.
You listed the bottom pairing guys who were positive, but Jones, Sekera, Gravel, Davidson, Manning, Persson and Petrovic were all negatives. Facing the weakest opponents is definitely helping Benning but I don’t think it’s the whole story.
I think he does everything a little well. Not fast but not slow. Not great with his stick but not bad. He doesn’t wow his passing but he’s quite decent. He’s active and he isn’t clueless in the o-zone. As you say he’s a gamer.
Third pairing guys aren’t playing tough opponents so their qual comp is often easier. Against elites this year, via Puck IQ, Nurse played 482 minutes, had a positive Rel (possession compared to other blue) and outscored elites 25-18.
Benning played 124 minutes, was slightly in the red Rel, and outscored opposition 6-4.
Both are good NHL defensemen. Different roles, making their numbers impossible to compare. Should mention Nurse playing with McDavid far more, which further complicates the comparison.
defmn,
He’s definitely a positive contributor but I think everyone knows he’s not as good as that +/- says. I’m totally fine with moving him.
I’m actually looking forward to seeing a Bear-Larsson-Green-Bouchard depth chart if Holland can swing the money. I think Green has some left in the tank with upside that Benning doesn’t.
Also, Yamamoto is going to play on a skill line, so that’s 97 or 29 at this point. I think we’ll see him with McDavid next season at some point. Skill plays well with skill. Yamamoto has a lot of natural talent. I wish the Oilers had a bunch of skill wingers with his natural talent who are close to NHL ready.
Thank you for taking the time to explain that Benning is in fact a positive contributor. Hopefully they keep him.
Definitely a ‘math and eye test don’t mesh’ story. I don’t know which version comes closest but I do know that the coaching staff gets the last say and that isn’t working in Benning’s favour.
Sigh.
Tippett agrees with you so I’ve stopped arguing about Benning.
But the “obsession” with this “fringe” player comes from stuff like the +/- leader board for Oiler regulars over the past 3 seasons.
Benning +24
McDavid +17
Nurse +8
————–
A bunch of guys who’ve gotten outscored.
We are not a particularly attractive species without doubt.
I just don’t think this is the place to have the length of discussion that such an important question merits.
The observation that democracy is the most fragile of the possible regimes and that all regimes are subject to corruption is just a start to a discussion that has a 2,500 year chronology and history.
I apologize for my earlier flippant responses. I shouldn’t have done that.
Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.
What is crooked cannot be straightened;
what is lacking cannot be counted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOKu1Ftvs-U
OK.
Matt Benning isn’t “fringe” – he’s a legit upper end 3rd pairing d-man.
The key word with Green is “former” – he’s not a current start. He’s a soon to be 35 year old regressing d-man. I’d actually prefer Benning’s skill set on the 3rd pairing. He’s got great numbers with RUssell (and, well, with everyone) and will be quite happy for a Jones/Benning 3rd pairing.
Mike Green is turning 35 and regressing – he was never great defensively and with Klef, Bear, Jones and, soon, Bouchard, I don’t see the need for his skillset.
Not a player I want to sign to multiple years.
All democracies have descended into kabuki theatre. Our countries and nations, hollowed out potemkin villages.
It is an eminence front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx6Zgz0TZuA
LOL also: What’s with the Lowetide obsession with “good soldier and battler” players who by definition are fringe at best, unlike Green who is a former star who commands respect?
Why is it that NHL history is rife with older former great defencemen who provide mentorship plus the rest to a young defence like what Holland is working with, and Lowetide groupthink states that any defenceman over 30 is halfway to the knackers yard?
Considering you’re the biggest troll…lol
We’ve had some talk about having a d-man that meets the requirements for exposure in the expansion draft – even signing a soon to be 35 year old Mike Green for multiple years or hoping the current #8/9D (potentially #7 on opening night) Lagesson plays 40 games this year.
How about keeping it simple and signing the good soldier and battler Matty Benning to 2 X $2.2M?
Cynism is the last thing needed now.
There is an opportunity to change the world.
Imagine a brighter future or STFU.
I guess is what you are saying is that your position is irrefutable.
We can’t test it with “current” (or future”) data seeing Drai/Nuge with a separate winger and using the data we have of Nuge and Drai win a non-Kailer winger is, apparently, not relevant.
I’m not sure why its not relevant, just because the team is different – its sets up with your criteria of what has made Kailer successful – a winger playing with Drai and Nuge with McDavid ahead of them on another line.
To the extent McDavid was not taking tough match-ups on another line, well, he was probably the 3rd player with Nuge and Drai…..
———-
To your point of good team vs bad team, well, I would posit that Yamamoto being added made the team much better.
Recall the bad month of December – the team was bad, all over. Yamamoto gets called up and the team is better, much better.
I can’t prove cause and effect but there seems to be a correlation between Drai/Nuge having success and the team having success and Kailer Yamamoto.
If nothing else, you are fairly well read.
I prefer George Orwell, Jack London, Daniel Defoe and Charles Dickens.
I prefer Plato to Machiavelli to Bacon to Hobbes to Nietzsche.
Words only control people who don’t know how to use dictionaries. 😉
Thank you for that enlightening opinion.
Personally, I like to see things in the framework of Rome: plebs vs patricians. In the end it usually boils down to bread riots which really effect political change.
I hope everyone reading this has access to basic necessities of life, some of which have become rare during the past few weeks.
ps: Apologies for getting too far off hockey. I forget that everyone else is similarly locked down like I am. I hope everyone has enough of the basic necessities of life. It can be trying to be stuck inside which opens up all kinds…
Watching YouTube clips of old Oilers is doing it for me at the moment, also postwar Russian war movies based on WW2 if you want to see astonishing non-CGI showing enough hardware to conquer Philadelphia those movies are where to go. Of particular interest are any movies made when Stalin was alive that have a character playing the Man of Steel.
And your misunderstanding seems to be waaaay out in left field. If you want to understand Fukuyama’s position go back and read Nietzsche’s objection to Hobbe’s.
calvin and hobbes?
Words: Are things.
People who control words control everything. Which is why the decline of traditional media has been a particularly sad development.
I’m more of a dictionary kind of guy. Words have a meaning. If you don’t like that meaning you need to come up with another word. 😉
de•moc•ra•cy dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē►
n.
Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
What’s his position re without the cozy buffer of a democratic and prosperous USA lol
ps: sorry Lowetide, merely furthering these maniac’s meatgrinder/discussion. Delete anytime : p
I respectfully submit that you have misunderstood Fukuyama.
Yes but when the fiat fantasy finally crashes it’s going to be difficult to control certain populations grown somewhat temporarily docile, particularly once the bribe money evaporates lol
– To me that’s the fallacy in using numbers over different years to come to the conclusion that : see how good Kailer is compared to everyone else
– Those stats are comparing apples to oranges. The minutes that Drai and RNH played together in the three previous years don’t resemble the ones they played with Kailer.
– It’s the same as the conclusion that was made about Koski: he wasn’t a bad goalie, he just was playing on a bad team with bad and injured D. The trick is to look through the numbers IMO not rely on them as proof.
– Anyway Kailer was injured at end of his run. It’s too bad we didn’t get to see his replacement on that line to test my thesis
Please. Don’t be silly.
lol
Can you name any democracies? The End of History and the Last Man turned out to be completely wrong.
Plutocratic neofeudalism is on the march everywhere.
Can’t have political democracy unless you have economic democracy and that power of the people was lost decades ago.
Correct. Most of our current “democracies” are run by mega business and banks. I don’t actually see democracy in action
Leon and Nuge played over 300 minutes together over the last 3 seasons without Yamamoto and have a GF% of 45.95%.
Leon and Nuge played 320 minutes together with Yamamoto and had a GF% of 77.78%.
Sure, the xGF% was much closer and the trio greatly outshone their possession metrics but I think that is a function of the high danger chances they created as a trio.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477934&p2=8476454&p3=8479977&p4=0&p5=0
This doesn’t make any sense to me.
If you are going to retain 2 million on Russell and get a 7th rounder, why not just trade Benning for a 3rd?
The cap hit would be the same and you keep the dman the coach prefers.
Fucking Belgian bastards.
I have been pushing the ‘United Democracies’ idea for 30 years.
The idea that dictatorships and democracies have similar objectives is dangerously delusional.
I think this would be better than what we have, but not I’m sure it is what we need.
W.r.t. HH’s comment, I don’t believe there is a nation on this earth that has a high degree of democracy and transparency. Relatively so, yes. On an absolute basis, not even close.
I also would not want anything like the federalism of the European Union, which essentially looks like a smaller version of United Democracies. (The devil’s in the details I know and you’ve given none, so this isn’t a criticism of your ideas)
I would be willing to get on board anything that takes us farther away from central planning (which is inherently undemocratic), rather than re-imagining it.
But yes, end the UN. Please.
– I don’t this view and mine as mutually exclusive. I’m effusive in his praise. Just a little more nuanced than most.
– If that guy is given the same opportunity, and doesn’t do as well, so be it, but with the caveat:
– Kailer was on a all-world heater to boot: 108 PDO and scoring on 1 of every 4 shots.
– So upon further reflection, the next guy who comes up should Kailer go down to injury is unlikely to have the same stats (nor will Kailer):
– Should Kailer get injured, and another player is given exact same opportunity with Drai and RNH (with a healthy McD on another line, good D partners, the team playing well), we will test my thesis. I bet that guy does pretty well if he gets 20 games, but won’t have a 25% sH%, or 108 PDO
* and of course some of those guys didn’t do as well years ago: that was my point: those teams were sh$t, and they were playing on the first line. Anyway who knows if I’m right…
Seeing OP “pop up” (blam!!)(pow!!) with the next post after these last few posts is like a good SNL skit.