The Edmonton Oilers lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night, which is as close to a mortal sin as an Edmonton side can commit during the regular season. During the period when the game was in the balance, in the third period, Matt Savoie took a marginal penalty and then Mattias Janmark took an ill-advised penalty that cost the game.
Janmark has done it before, famously following up a Philip Broberg infraction with one of his own in a vital Game 5 against the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2023 playoffs. Veterans aren’t supposed to make those mistakes, and Janmark’s misstep cost the game.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) 0-1-0
- On the road to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0)
- On the road to: ANA, LAK, SJS (Expected 2-1-0)
- Expected Record: 3-2-0, six points in five games
- Actual Record: 0-1-0
- Season Record: 28-21-8, 64 points in 57 games
I think we can conclude an eight game homestand isn’t good for this team, but it would be a mistake to suggest nothing was accomplished. There’s a build here, a logical progression that has the goaltending headed in a better direction, the defense settling in, and even a third line emerging (more in a minute). Losing to Toronto is irritating but does not define the season. In a way, not getting enough from this homestand may serve as inspiration coming out of the Olympic break.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 10:01, 5-8 shots, 40X, 5-6 HDSC
In the last eight games, this trio is 2-6 goals at five-on-five, and I do believe coach Kris Knoblauch will shuffle the lines at some point before the playoffs. I think Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on a third line, with real wingers, could do some damage. The new left winger is likely to come via trade, and it’s too bad Ike Howard didn’t get a better look earlier this season with the Oilers. Howard has 12 goals in 20 games with Bakersfield, I wonder if he’s the ask in the deal for McDavid’s next left winger.
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen 8:07, 6-1 shots, 58X, 1-0 HDSC
This trio is 9-3 goals since December 1 and honestly I think we can make the case that Leon as mentor is magic. I love the way all three play the game, and when the big man does his annual adjustment on those dangerous blue line passes the trio will tighten up like Archie Bell & The Drells. What a goal by Kapanen. Man. Please read this.
- Samanski-Roslovic-Savoie 8:01, 4-1 shots, 1-1 goals, 26X, 1-1 HDSC
This line is at 28 minutes five-on-five (small, small sample) and has 3-2 goals and 61 percent expected goals. I’m encouraged by the trio, while also being convinced there’s no damn way the Oilers go to war in the postseason with this bunch. Savoie was 12-18 five-on-five through end of November and is 15-14 goals since. I think he’s there now as an NHL player. That will be key when Nuge moves down to center the third line. I don’t know what Samanski is really, but he’s holding his own out of the box and that’s a thing.
- Mangiapane-Frederic-Janmark 5:37, 4-8 shots, 0-1 goals, 22X, 2-4 HDSC
I think scratching Curtis Lazar must be about injury or illness, because it makes zero sense. I’m especially disappointed the coaching staff didn’t run Lazar- Frederic, who have a 58 percent expected goal share in 115 minutes this season five-on-five. Actual goals are 1-0, but I’d run that for a time. There’s a non-zero chance Frederic is finding his way now, important to give him the tools to crawl out of the well.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:53, 11-9 shots, 44X, 3-6 HDSC
- Nurse-Walman 15:51, 11-8 shots, 1-1 goals, 47X, 5-5 HDSC
- Stastney-Emberson 12:28, 7-1 shots, 1-0 goals, 92X, 5-0 HDSC
- Connor Ingram 22 of 26, .846
Lots of anger towards the defense in the comments section, but for me things are coming into view. Ekholm-Bouchard are 55 percent goal share 5×5 since Dec. 1. Nurse-Walman are just getting started this year (4-4 since Dec. 1 but in only 95 minutes) but are 22-17 five-on-five in 411 minutes five-on-five since Walman came to the city. Stastney-Emberson 6-3 since Dec. 1. I’ll take that, and unless a RH defenseman falls out of the sky I believe this defense has enough in it to win a championship. Maybe you upgrade Alec Regula, but I like the six. Connor Ingram was 20 of 22, .909 at five-on-five and the PK was a team leak (Janmark the boner) so I remain onboard with Ingram. I think he’s going to start some playoff games.
The loss is pain, but I’m a believer again in the Oilers. Knoblauch took exactly one forever to get this figured out, but he has it now. Pretty sure.
CONDORS
I’ll be watching closely to see if the Oilers commit to Connor Ungar. I mean really commit. Would the organization trust a smaller goalie with the AHL starting job next season? He is forcing his way into the ‘NHL opportunity’ conversation, but I’m not certain it’s this season and am also uncertain it will be with Edmonton. He’s at 20 games now, including ECHL and AHL, and is elite. Fantastic get by the organization, but they fade smaller goalies and have forever.
The Riley Stillman-Josh Brown pairing had some success last night, Damien Carfagna has played with many defensive partners and is running 57 percent goal share at five-on-five. There’s an NHL player there.
We can talk all we want about the large group of legit NHL-ready players on this list, but it’s Ike Howard’s show and he’s storming the gates if anyone is paying attention. There’s just too much, people. He’s either going to be playing with the Oilers or another NHL team next season, but he’s ready for the show. Right now.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk Oilers and Olympics with Kevin McCurdy, discuss any deals that take place before the freeze and look at the wild NBA deadline. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Six bold predictions for the Oilers in 2026:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7017351/2026/02/04/edmonton-oilers-bold-predictions-2026-stats/
We’re on the same wavelength today LT.
But who’s the power winger taking Nuge’s spot on 1LW?
Darnell Nurse
Bowman found Podkolzin and Kapanen for 10 cents on the dollar. We’ll see.
Ya to me this is the shop to go to. I have a lot of faith in bowman.
Do not blow assets on aging cliff dwellers.
Bold, and I like it.
i suggest tweaking your arbitrary dates (ie swap Nov 26 for Dec 1, that’s the end of the Oct-Nov 25-game start) to see what shows up.
I just had a quick look at first-25, second-25, and third-25 (8 games for Oilers so far). The various comparisons —Oilers v themselves, but also across the league— are interesting.
So many of us in Oilerville are narrowly focused on what we believe this team/coach/GM should be doing we’re not seeing the context. I didn’t like the outcome of last night’s game, but I do like so much of what I’ve been seeing since Nov 25.
What watching this club, and the NHL, in recent years has taught me: regular season is the time to run experiments. To ease pieces into/out of play. To figure out what’s needed, and whether it’s in the house or not. Above all, keep your powder Drai.
ps. In the most recent 8-game segment, just for comparison: Oilers *WIN% .500 (tied for #20 with seven clubs; Avalanche .438 (25th); Panthers .375 (27th); Vegans .250 (30th); Kings .750 (6th).
*WIN% as per NHL.com (using Bettman points, not real W/L %)
Bold suggestion:
Step 1: Acquire Kiril Kirsanov from the Kings
Step 2: Establish talks with Kirsanov’s agent Rick Komarow
Step 3: Tamper to the moon and back whispering into Igor Shesterkin’s ear via his agent Komarow, “Ditch the NY losers! You should join the Oilers, you will win the Cup!”
Step 4: Repeat tampering as necessary to force a Panarin style trade.
If the Oilers stuck with their possession and cycle focus that they used around christmas 2023, up to and during the 16 game win streak, they probably would have a president’s trophy and maybe a cup now. Skinner would be starting at the Olympics.
They do not have a repeatable path to victory each night. Its too dependent on magic of the glimmer twins and special teams. Its vulnerable to shit happens.
Its like the brilliant kids in high school struggle to out perform the hard workers in college. Bad habits bite them in the ass.
The bottom 6 become disengaged, the defensive structure gets scrambled, players play below their capabilities on the regular. Its not a sustainable and repeatable way to consistently win hockey games. Your stars get points and make hilights, while the basement is flooding.
With Leon’s comments I think that’s it for this coaching staff. I won’t be upset.
I’m hoping for Peter Laviolette. Great record of turning teams around mid season. No interest in Deboer personally, the guy we beat in playoffs every year and whose players basically voted him out last year.
I was team Knoblauch until recently, but I legit think he’s lost the room and it’s unrecoverable. I don’t know the answer but I believe this team needs a badass coach that doesn’t eff around and TRULY holds EVERYONE accountable on an equal playing field… if you’re going to bench Mangi for making a boneheaded play, then bench Drai or McD for the same, accountability needs to be consistent. Also, roll the effing lines… this team has always been better when everyone feels involved, so involve everyone, stop effing making it a two line team the moment things start going awry and let some of the other talent contribute before they start to atrophy from sitting too long.
I feel that this team has as much talent of not more than any of recent memory but it’s not being utilized to anywhere near it’s potential.
Very well said
“We need everyone, starts with coaches. Everyone” – Leon Draisaitl.
coaches have to be gone after that
Somebody slap Jarry’s hand after he called out the team on the grade A’s?
“it starts with me”. No guy. It starts with not giving up chance after chance after chance.
Akey will be back on Friday.
Leppanen and Dineen not until after the all-star break (which is after this weekend).
Jones day to day (blocked a shot with his foot) – he’s been in and our all year.
Clatt sometime in March.
Bottom 6 is a mess. assistant coaching is crumbs vs last 2 years. Bouchard needs to benched to learn from his defensive warts. Skinner trade was abolition from the start. The team just isnt a team with the top 5 or 6. All these guys should be working there bag off during the break instead of family time and holidays with the coaching staff to the other 2/3 of the team playing right.
That’s a good interview right there by Jarry.
Well done sir well done!
Things are lining up. Just go out and execute.
Jarry, jarry night.
Again, expected goals tonight 3.99-3.58 for CGY. Jarry didn’t steal the game but certainly didn’t lose it.. Skinnwr lost the game last night for PIT.
2 things can be simultaneously true. Skinner wasn’t the reason the team has sucked, but he wasn’t the solution, either
Not many goalies would be the solution.
This is an allusion to my mood, not a criticism.
I was really happy for Kapanen when he scored there. He’s going to become a dad over this Olympic break so hopefully he can pick up where he left off when the Oilers return, with his new dad strength added. I think the Oilers are going to need it.
Hopefully we can all enjoy cheering for Olympians for the next bit and take a break from the Oilers stress.
It’s official. By points percentage, they are out of a playoff spot.
Two unforgivable losses.
I don’t know where the help comes from either.
8th i think…
I stand corrected. 8th indeed.
However, an LA point tomorrow, and they will be out.
Only one game of note tomorrow with VGK and LAK both playing back to back in Vegas…there is no good outcome for the Oilers.
The Oilers come out of the break with 3 games in 4 nights against ANA, LAK and SJS on the road.
That could be the season right there.
Go away, please. Thanks!
Could be the season for the Kings and SJS
I don’t believe the Sharks are real contenders…too much work still needs to be done on their D.
The Kings however just added a significant top line forward without any subtractions from their roster so, depending how long Panarin takes to adjust, could surge.
This was sad. Again can’t beat teams that are weak. My hopes for the playoffs are diminishing faster with this years team for sure. I can’t even get mad anymore….
Goodbye KK – if Bowman doesn’t make the coaching change now, we’ll be asking for his head on a platter next.
That’s how I feel … this team makes me sad. They should’ve been building off the playoff success of the past two seasons. Instead, the team needs a reset from top to bottom.
More and more, Leon and McDavid are trending towards best players to never win a Cup status.
The bottom 6 doesn’t have a pulse or identity.
The PK is a mess.
The D can’t defend against the rush or protect the net.
The new goalies are just as inconsistent as the last duo.
They have no picks.
They are capped out.
Hyman, RNH and Ekholm, great as they have been, are getting to the point in the careers where the age cliff is looming.
This team needs a huge shakeup to reverse course. Otherwise, this era of Oilers hockey is going to fizzle out without a Cup.
Duration from Oiler goals to the next goal in 2026:
In these 17 games, there are 14 times where they have given back a goal within 3 mins (or 2 quick opponent goals in that time span).
That is such a backbreaking thing to allow and it has happened with such frequency, with so many different culprits, that one can only conclude that the coaching has no idea what to do. I’m repeating myself because I feel that it bears repeating that KK has figured out nothing and needs to be let go.
Vs PHI
Vs LAK
Vs NAS*
Vs NYI
Vs NJD
Vs Pittsburgh
Vs MIN
Va TOR
Vs CGY
NAS
WPG
CHI/VAN/STL
WAS
ANA
SJ
Considering how Oilers play coming off of breaks, we could be in trouble to even make the playoffs. Something big needs to change for the Oilers to be considered even in the conversation of cup challengers.
Goalied again.
Expected goals tonight 3.99-3.58 for CGY.. I wouldn’t call that goalied, more like outplayed
Fire someone
No timeout. Makes perfect sense.
Not sure they’d listen to him anyway, but yes there should have been a TO called anytime in the last 4 min there. Sleeping again
Somehow, this game feels familiar…
Three losses in a row should get KK fired.
DeBoer is going to be whispering the sweetest of nothings to McDavid all through Italy.
Yep – Bowman should be on the phone with DeBoer right now.
Bowman will be in Italy as well.
You mean the guy who Knoblauch got fired for his ex assistant coach?
The guy who tossed his goalie under the bus as the Oilers rolled them?
Got yourselves a winner there guys hahaha.
DeBoer has led multiple teams with lesser talent deep in the playoffs.
KK has far less experience. He must have been great at delegating, but when the support dried up, he had nothing to add. This is a good team being coached to the basement
Whoever it is basically has to start over for systems. Which part of their game would they actually carry over? I suppose the PP, but I think the 2 min warriors could make any PP plan hum
The guy that has been to 6 of the last 8 conference finals with 3 different teams?
The Oilers beating the Stars two years in a row got DeBoer fired, it’s clear that Knoblauch’s team chosen bench helped the Oilers beat the Stars two years in a row.
DeBoer has made the conference or Stanley cup finals 8 out of his 18 seasons, he is a real winner.
This “stretch pass” BS has got to stop.
For one, none of them are proper stretch passes. A long pass to a forward standing still doesn’t count.
And of course, this team has all kinds of guys who can carry with speed, and isn’t doing it.
3rd period was full of it. A few actually worked well, but many were easily broken up.
Looking for easy offense. D to F gaps 2 zones wide
The Florida series was full of it. HAVE NOT LEARNED!
Summarizing!
Neither Nicholl nor Lafreniere incurred soup, though the former did win 16 of 23 draws (69.6%).
Prospecting takes a break until Freya’s Day.
Thanks for all the updates tark!
No apology?
I don’t buy the argument that the lower line players should get more ice time. I just don’t see the effort from them. Team has an urgency and strategy problem. Coaching horrible. No structure. Creative players like Connor and Leon and Bouch still gonna create on their own, but this team needs some structure. Listless out there.
Whew! We tied it up…now we can relax. Oops!
Back to what I said earlier in the thread,this team has zero control at important times in a game,coaching…
Jarry calling out his team and laying his fifth egg in a row is pretty funny.
4 goalies this year almost always the same results,hmm…
Expected goals tonight 3.99-3.58 for CGY. He didn’t steal the game but certainly didn’t lose it.
This team has taken on the personality of Sleepy Knoblauch.
He needs a wizened NHL veteran assistant coach whispering in his ear.
This is absolutely pathetic.
They quit playing after the shortest little bits of effort.
The shine is off Stastney. He’s had some really bad looks on GA lately.
I never agree with Hrudey but his take on Jarry tonight is accurate. Unfortunately.
Hrudey still a weiner, though, so just makes me even more upset. Losing to the Flames is 10X worse when you have to listen to that loser the whole time. Man. AB commentators. Continually wild how the verbal on this blog is 10X the verbal on air. But I guess we shouldn’t be surprised with this joke of a league. Working people deserve better. Seize the means of hockey!!
The Oilers can’t hire and fire every NHL goalie in one season. At some point they have to figure out, it’s not their goaltenders that are the problem.
This team can’t defend at all.
You’re right.
Really?
30s after Oilers score a goal, a goal against. Again.
2 and 14 gave up a 9 bell chance 5 Sec after the pucked dropped as well.
Hard to believe what goes on
2 and 14 are +18 and +11 on the year. They play the toughest minutes. Emberson is also a plus player but barely. The rest of the D are well in the negatives facing lesser competition. Bouch gets shit on for everything yet he is the best dman by far and the stats back it up. And for those who say the Mcdavid effect, have a look at McD plus minus away from Bouch and Bouch plus minus away from McD and see who needs who more…
I really dont care who it was you can’t let the opposition come down mainstreet for free from the center ice face off after tieing the game!
Poor defending is poor defending
Kapgoesin.
They need to set up Kapanen for more shots.
He can really fire.
Exceptional Kapanen vibes
Kap’s shooting the puck better than we’ve seen before – that was heavy!
McDavid with more then double the shots of anyone else, “he’s already in Milan” LOL
100% – he was awful tonight.
Lomberg has such a punchable face
Ya punch him right in the bahl s
Broadcasters say captain obvious things like:
”the PK has to be better”
” they just aren’t putting up the goals”
”they can’t allow 30 goals against in 8 games”
To which my reply is”no sh*t”
Nobody seems to get past the captain obvious stuff to the why is it happening and how is it gonna be fixed. What exactly is going wrong with the PK and what is the solution.?
I when it came to the coaches interview, he basically said the same thing. I was hoping he would get into some details of what needs to be done whether that’s that front coverage not giving up the zone backing in etc. etc.
But he just said the same thing PK‘s gotta be better blah blah blah.
This surprises me
I watched a brief bit of a Vegas game recently and listened to coach Cassidy being interviewed during a break. He spoke with such confidence and clarity about their game. I was struck by such a stark difference with the aw shucks of Knoblauch.
Ive been on the ” I cant stand this system” since October it results in the D always getting caught to deep in the O Zone to the forwards are 100 feet up ice waiting for a pass and if the other team intercepts then it is a odd man rush coming our way .Just a plain dumb system .
This D sure misses Coffey . I would love to know what caused the rift between him and KK. SB should put them in a room and tell them they cant come out until they resolve it ,.Their egos can not be allowed to be bigger then the teams goals off winning a SC
Draisaitl’s reverse hits are deadly.
What is this team’s record with 88 in the lineup? While 10 might be coming along he’s still making nothing happen on the score sheet. At least one of the 2 bottom 6 lines plays ~short-handed every night.
Seeing Walman a whole lot of bad lately. Very lackadaisical. Maybe not 100%? Is that pair now the 3rd pair? Poor awareness, lack of urgency.
Oilers are 23-18-7 in the 48 games Mangi has played.
5-3-1 when he has not been in the lineup.
Pope Leo!
Blatant high stic missed
Nuge has played some of the most ineffective hockey of his career since his 1000th game (and he was having such a strong season – it just flipped).
Agreed, I have seen Nuge really bad the past number of games. I thought he might be having us annual severe illness he gets.
Somebody, PLEASE, talk me off the ledge.
How does anyone see a playoff team here, let alone a contender?
These losses to inferior teams are so mind-numbingly frustrating. Even the wins need to be miracles too.
Can’t.
They’re a mediocre team.
Is it the players?
Is it the coaching?
Is the goaltending?
All of the above?
Aside from when McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman and Bouchard are on the ice, the rest of the team is unwatchable.
At the pace that they’re pissing away points, they’ll be out of a playoff position by the time the TDL rolls around.
As i said yesterday, i wont be surprised when the oilers go less than 3-2 in February.
Does nurse purposely aim for defenseman chin pads in the offensive zone every time?? He’s the worst 🤦♂️
This is a bad team that is not going to make the playoffs unless something materially changes. Even their wins lately have been incredibly frustrating to watch. What a shame
If they lose to a sad sack team likely the Flames at home, then KK deserves to be sacked during the Olympic break. No excuses, he needs to get this team playing better, and stop pissing away points at home.
Kings just loaded up with a legit superstar forward.
Sharks and Ducks are breathing down our necks.
Knock, knock Oilers … time to wake up.
I wanted KK gone in November. I gave him credit for putting together 2 good forward lines in December. No ability to adapt since, and the D is a hot mess that is performing way below its collective potential, and way below other teams, who on paper have a worse team.
Kulak and Stecher left and are both doing substantially better playing ~20 mins a night
I dont think this current coaching regime survives ; theres gonna be panic . It doesn’t look right; feel right; it’s not right. The fit for this group isnt knobloach
Team has been terrible tonight. Constantly caught on the wrong side of the puck. Sloppy passes, mental mistakes. Poor PK.
The message is not landing from the coaches. It’s obvious.
When they lost Coffey and Guluzan,they lost 75 % of the coaching knowledge it appears.Bowman made a few bad moves,Perry ,Brown being the worst ,and here we are.
Somehow, this Coach got them to the finals twice. If it is in fact a coaching issue, who the hell do you replace him with???
what edoil said they lost to much with guly gone
trotz next year i hope
You know he’s retiring, right?
Gully and Coffey gone were big pieces.