The Edmonton Oilers have delivered an uneven season, kind of like The Beatles’ White Album or the Stones’ Goat’s Head Soup. There’s exceptional quality, plus many things that are forgettable. We’ll remember some of the roster players for reaching the career cliff in Oilers threads, and the length of time it takes for management and coaching staffs to recover. It looks like it could be a long, long time.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR, CGY (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: ANA, LAK, SJS (Expected 2-1-0)
- Expected Record: 3-2-0, six points in five games
- Actual Record:
- Season Record: 28-20-8, 64 points in 56 games
This projection shows how I feel currently about these Edmonton Oilers. I don’t trust them any farther than I can throw them. Some blame the goaltending, some blame the blue, some blame the forwards for not offering more support. My main concerns are the attachment to low percentage outlet passes and the continued investment in players who are simply not performing at NHL level, Please read this.
The reason NHL coaches trust veterans is due to being risk averse. Those youngster may be fan favourites, but they’re also the players who can get the coach fired in a hurry. It’s rare that a coach deploys more than one freshman in a feature role.
More rare is the coach who invests massive playing time on veterans who are provably off their own career pace, Kris Knoblauch is trying to find solutions, but has had to move away from Anrdrew Mangiapane as a solution. Talk of trade has faded, and one wonders if the veteran has entered the ‘Jeff Skinner room’ where he will be deployed about as often as a third goalie.
There are some positive developments. Connor McDavid’s verbal at The Player’s Tribune constitutes a love letter to the city of Edmonton, the fans, and the Oilers. Best player in the world loves the team and his teammates as much as you do. That’s going to lift spirits to the moon and back in Edmonton. I do not know what wrinkle in the space-time continuum allowed the world’s greatest players to arrive in the northernmost NHL outpost beginning in 1979, but do know it exists. What an exceptional individual.
Meanwhile, Knoblauch is finding new answers. If you look at the penalty kill, Matt Savoie has played in 87 minutes while allowing 7.52 GA-60. That’s third best, behind McDavid (!!) and Adam Henrique. Curtis Lazar is also coming along in this area. I’m a little worried about Mattias Janmark in this area, he might not be 100 percent.
I’m not overly concerned about the goaltending. The Oilers don’t defend well when the other team has the puck in their zone but no one does. Playing defense is like dismantling a bomb. Once you get to 10 seconds, bad things are the most likely outcome. The key for Edmonton, as always, is to not play defense and I do believe these goalies can help support the puck with outlets, and that the defense will be sharper than we’ve seen during this homestand.
I’m not sure Jack Roslovic is the answer at No. 3 center, while also being sure Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the answer at No. 3 center. I think that may be a key tweak available in Knoblauch’s deployment options.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the city, meaning legion media will be here trying to create stories around Connor McDavid’s unhappiness with the Oilers and his future contract with the Maple Leafs. McDavid’s words in the Trib will make it difficult, but I believe in the Toronto bunch. We’re on noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube today, and we’re lining up guests from both sides. I hope you can tune in.
The mistakes and inability to PK well enough are again the issues. Both are supposedly the easier things to fix – defence just takes keeping your head in the game and effort. I don’t see how they don’t keep looking for a coach that can actually lead this group to their ceiling and stay near there. This isn’t good enough, nearly
Summarizing!
Soup for both!
Lafreniere collected his 28th and 29th goals in an 11-1 rout. He earned 3rd star honors.
Lewandowski’s goal streak ended but he assisted on Saskatoon’s lone goal in a loss.
The turnaround in team play started against the Sharks. That was also the game the Superstars decided it was time for a details break.
From the first period things were rolling on the line front. When Mang got stapled to the bench McD and Leon went through wingers and several good shifts were had.
I counted Roslovic with 4 shot attempts. Frederic with three and he was noticeable in a good way. Won a few puck races, won a board battle, spun off and sent a dart to Roslovic near the hash marks. I feel like
Kapanen’s style of play is starting to filter down to this group the last handful of games.
A tale of two Walman’s. There was the ghastly Walman who started the game both in and limited to 2nd gear with bizarre rush attempts, stick handle attempts and line changes. And then there was the supremely effective Walman who walked the line, shoots with his head up and whom can make and take passes with ease. That he started off so indifferent, despite drawing the McD line, is no bueno. But when he’s in his groove he can play with skill, brings offense down the lineup and is fully value for 200ft. Consistency.
Keep running the Bouch pairing with the Draisaitl line. It might take a few games to get the timing down but this will click. (Double taps the Walman piece.)
Having good PKers in the box isn’t ideal. And PKing not to get scored on is playing with fire. More confidence, less thinking. Savoie has been marked with his nz pick plays. Back off for a week or two.
As the PK has wobbled lately I do feel the the defensive positioning on in zone play is probably the best it’s been all year. Same with their half court press back check and step up. All lines and pairs more frequently the last four games.
Rush chances is a different story. Though it’s also a Superstar phenomenon.
Byproduct of offense out of nothing all the time mentality.
I think balance is coming pretty soon. The bottom six are starting to pickup the slack. But the top guys are trying to do too much and are leaking details.
Mangiapane shouldn’t see the ice again. Benoit Pouliot and James Neal vibes. Bye bye!
If anyone is wondering if Stuart Skinner would be faring any better, the answer is no. His S% as a Pen is now lower than what it was as an Oiler this season, and he gave up 5 tonight to be the negative difference in their OTL against NYI.
My first reaction to the second PP goal is to blame Nurse for being too deep but on second look it’s clearly 97 with the major mistake. He’s got to take away that seam pass but he’s too high OR needs to turn around so his stick is in the lane. His feet and stick are facing up ice.
Im curious about Nurse. If he extends out much further Knies is left quite alone on the doorstep as it’s Walmans job to extend out to block Domis potential shot.
Why are we blaming Ingram and Samanksi for the Knies goal. Ingram made a solid pass from 20 feet directly to a stationary Nurse. It was at his feet so I suppose “not on the tape” but it’s a goalie under pressure and from distance. Any NHLer receives that cleanly. He had probably a full second to move slightly or shorten up his stick or catch it with his skate but nope, right through his legs.
And prime Patrice Bergeron doesn’t cheat for defense enough to be covering Knies that quickly after full possession. He’s got to support the breakout.
We are blaming Ingram because he made a bullet pass the ref had to jump over into the feet of Nurse. Very few NHLers receive that cleanly. It was a bad pass. That is why he is primarily at fault for the goal against.
The last 8 Oiler losses, these are the durations of time between Oiler goals and the next goal (all opponent unless stated otherwise)
Vs PHI
Oilers next goal19:15Vs LAK*
8:382:3515:40 (to shootout)Vs NAS*
5:57Oilers next goal0:38Vs NYI*
no goalVs NJD*
1:30Vs Pittsburgh
7:106:03 to end of gameVs Minnesota
2:5911:231:34Vs Toronto*
0:093:15I starred the 5 games in the last month that were close entering the final period. In literally every one, they give up a goal within 3 mins of a tally, and only once were they able to score 2 in a row.
In the wins-
NAS
3 oilers goals within 3 mins in 2nd2 NAS goals 15 seconds apart to make it 4-2*WPG
2 WPG goals within 2 minutes of first Oilers goal*Oilers 3 unanswered goals (2 within 2:18)CHI
1 CHI goal nearly a period after the 2-0 Oilers goal2 quick Oilers goal in final minuteVAN
4 Oilers goals in 5 min spanSTL
No quick strike goalsWAS
Times from Oilers goal to next goal – 00:21, 2:37, 2:10, 6:45 (all WAS)*, Oilers OTW 1:19 after GTG (EN/OT)Oilers scored 1:44 and 4:18 after 2 WAS goalsANA
ANA score 3:41 after 1st oilers goalOil score 4 within 7:30 from ANA goalSJS
SJS 2 goals in 1:35*Oil score 3 in 4:11 (EN/OT)Even in victory, this team has a knack for giving up quick goals after a strike and/or multiple GA in quick succession.
Yea, the wins often involved a few quick ones of their own, but in SJS and WAS these were final minutes with EN/OT, and in 3 of the remaining wins the competition was poor (Chicago half roster, Van and StL).
This matches the eye test. It is hard to win when the coaching staff has no idea how to suppress opposition goals against after a goal (especially for your side).
Stilman with a great stretch to sping Howard on a 2 on 1 in OT, he fakes pass and rips the OT winner shoreside.
3-2
2G/1A for Ike.
Ungar stops 21 of 23.
Poor turnover for Mangy lead to the Leafs second, but was it really the time to bench him for the entire period? Others have made just as bad or worse plays and Mangiapane was having his best game in forever up until that point. Coach needs to read the room there and give the guy some rope or don’t even have him in the lineup if you aren’t going to work with him. Janmark was out for his very next shift after costing the Oilers the game with that stupidly needles high stick on Matthews. So sick of this coach.
Haha. I just responded to another post with the exact same thought on mang. So obviously you’re correct.
Mangiapane shouldn’t have been in the game. Either KK has fooled himself repeatedly into thinking one of these games Mangiapane will take off, or he’s sending a message to the GM to stop coercing him into playing him
The team will come back from the break and take 12 games to readjust thats my biggest fear of the Olympic break
post game
Jason Gregor-the first period Andrew Mangiapane might have been the most engaged guy you had..he didn’t see a lot of ice in the 2nd…was it a loss of rotation ’cause he was on the ice for that goal against…what happened..?
Koach-….yeah, there’s (inaudible)…uhh, the turnover(inaudible)…had an effect on his icetime, yes...
Ya I saw that too. Finally sits a vet for a rookie type mistake. But not sure sitting mang when he’s having his best game of the season is reading the room well.
I actually thought he may draw a few penalties the way he was being an ass. And I’m the opposite of a mang fan.
Wrangles tie it on the 6 on 5 with a minute left but another “own goal” – this one was a puck going to the corner off Brown’s skate and it.
Both Wrangler goals off Condors’ d-men on non-shots.
This Sergiev goalie has absolutely robbed Howard of two more goals tonight. Like 8-bell saves.
Missed assignment on goal against notwithstanding (and that was manly on Ingram and the D for giving it up after clean possession), Samanski has looked good and very much like he’s ready for this league.
Samanski has also seemingly gained the trust of knob. He looks real good.
I’m losing faith in this coaching staff. I think we underestimate the impact of losing Glen Gulutzan – he was well liked by the players and innovative with his PP strategy. It seems like they just carried forward his PP and haven’t adapted or innovated. PK has got substantially worse since last year. Knoblauch strikes me similar to the last days of Todd McLellan where he loaded up minutes of McDrai and basically gave up on any other tactic
You’re doing much better than I am. I have lost faith in this staff. They don’t make adjustments, they just throw 97 & 29 out as much as possible. They’ve made themselves easy to play against.
I don’t expect any changes until after the season but – if they miss the playoffs, and it’s a very real possibility, I don’t think this staff deserves to come back. Frankly, I’d do it now and let the team come back to a new coaching stafff – who can have two weeks to look at film and find a different way to run things.
But the problems start with the coach.
The PP is materially better than it was last year and has definitely shown some new wrinkles through the season.
Worst team since 18-19, and there is a genuine risk of no playoffs. Easily the most frustrating of the McDavid era.
If LA wins their games in hand, they would be out.
If they can’t close out a point in this game, what can they do?
I mean, Florida is unlikely to make it this year, but they have the cups to earn a year off.
Tomorrow is as must win as they come. They can not give back the three win streak that easy.
Anaheim is actually more of a threat.
The Ducks are leading Seattle 2-0 tonight and, if they win, will only be 1 point back of the Oilers with a game in hand.
Of course, LA still has 2 games to play before the break..Seattle on a back to back tomorrow and another against Vegas on Thursday.
Even worse, as multiple teams can take them.
The saving grace/fatal blow is the fact they have so many in-division games upcoming. This upcoming Cali roadtrip is THE make-or-break three game set of the season. 3-0, they can practically coast to the finish line. 0-3, and it’s curtains.
I have absolutely no idea who will show up.
Im betting on a sluggish start after the break as usual. Then a mad dash to get into 8th with nothing left of 29 and 97 come playoffs.
What a weird season
Top line comes out for the third like a house on fire.
Howard with a battle win/puck retrieval and sets-up Hutson for a chance then Howard himself the same battle/retrieval, cross-ice to Howard for a one-time bomb.
2-1 Condors.
I find it incredible how they got so many teams this year on the second of a back to back and yet look like the tired team all the time.
not sure “tired” is the right word. Maybe “lethargic” is a better choice. Just not really into the slog of the regular season, especially against Eastern teams. The East has been feasting on the western teams this season.
When you make dumb lineup decisions (insert 88 for 20), play undisplined, don’t hold guys accountable, and pray that 97 & 29 are going to bail you out of everything because you haven’t instilled roles and belief in the rest of the team – you get these results.
KK must go.
Yep, have to take advantage of the scheduling when in your favor.
A fast, hard checking 3rd line would sure help wear teams on b2b down early.
So easy to play against
I think edmonton should aquire Weegar from calagary. Then put nurse as a forward. That will balance it out
Character game tomorrow night. Need to come out hard.
The Oilers are a middle of the pack team like the Leafs. If their star players aren’t going supernova, then they lose. Poor team defence and PK. Up and down goaltending. Uninspired coaching. Young players that don’t move the needle, and too many overpriced vets whose ability to contribute does not match their cap hit.
The Oilers will probably be able to limp into the playoffs, owing to being in the weakest division in the league, but they should be looking to sell instead of buy … this team does not have the horses to beat Vegas in a 7 game series, let alone any of the Central teams like the Avs, Stars or Wild.
Vegas had more regular season separation from the Oilers last season.
The Knights are just as average as the Oilers.
And the Leafs are now 1 point behind us in the standings … yet all the verbal in Leafland is that they’re not good enough and should blow it up and look to next season.
The Oilers are an average team with no hope of being a factor in this years playoffs (if they manage to squeak in that is). Their entire game plan is predicted on 4 players carrying them to victory. That’s a pretender, not a contender.
Disappointing home stand for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. And another loss to a team that played the night before.
It was a good game until the penalties arrived
The refs blew that game. However, when they lose tomorrow against Calgary, I hope that is what is needed to change the coaching in advance of the Olympic break
I don’t know how Moneypuck comes up witn these playoff odds, but that 82% is a severe overestimate.
On the backdrop of McD’s open letter, it couldn’t be more obvious that the people in charge have no effin clue what they’re doing
Moneypuck’s odds are adjusted early in the morning after all games are complete.
The Oilers chances will likely drop about 3-4% tomorrow and with the Ducks winning (so far) tonight they will close ground.
The odds are that high because the Pacific Division is so poor.
You’re not one of us. When I’m bemoaning this team it is from a place of concern, like everyone else on this site except for you. I have asked you several times not to leave comments on my posts of this nature but you don’t seem to understand. We all know that Moneypuck adjusts the odds daily and that the Pacific is mediocre. You add nothing to the conversation
Which coach out there could transform this team? They have one top end offensive d-man in Bouchard. Ekholm is done. The others are useless. and two superstars upfront. Look at all the guys they let go of last summer…Perry, Brown, Klingberg,….for soft little smurfs….
Ekholm was like +24 over a two month stretch until hitting a bit of a slump the last few games.
You think this team’s performance is maxed out?
It’s not my full time job to think of the best coaching staff available. But there is a problem in how the team has played. Maybe McDavid’s AAA coach is still around? 😜
Maybe Frederic should focus a little harder on making an impact on the score sheet. What a joke.
Penalty Kill dropping like a stone lately.
Multiple goals against in 4 of the last 8.
Oilers love giving presents to underachieving no hope in hell of making playoffs bottom feeding teams
Ain’t that the truth. Calgary will benefit tomorrow
They were all over them, four lines rolling, until they spoke jammed themselves on those PKs.
90 second collapses.
better than the preceding 25 minutes of indifferent play.
You lose some you should win at the end of a funk. Hockey gods and the like.
This funk has been all season long
I’m not in the Doomer camp.
They turned over half the roster and have youngins in 5 spots plus two new goalies.
And they’re tied for the division lead.
Florida is ten points out of the playoffs.
True. But these are excuses that mask the overall performance assessment. KK had new players and youngins in OHL for years, and they still have a roster that is underperforming. If I was dooming I would ask to give up on the team. I don’t think KK’s staff have been the answer
Leafs: .553
Oilers: .561
Been maybe 5 shots above the waist all night. Stolarz been good but he’s like Wolf – very quick down low
Another frustrating game in a frustrating season. Good time for the Olympic break
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuLEGU9AX-k
Bobby baby
It’s over sit McDavid and Drai
McMann has been pretty noticeable…..
The price for McMann just went up.
This team has way too much dead weight. 3rd and 4th lines non-existent…Unless they are saving themselves for the playoff and possible reinforcements it will be a much shorter season….
3rd line scored 1 more goal tonight than the top line
the goals were by Walman and Kapanen….
Walman’s was without question a 3rd line goal
But putting on Mangiapane to worsen the 4th line, knowing that it will do that, and it ended up -1, is a repeated offence that deserves some reckoning. If it’s coming from Stan, he needs to go, and if it’s coming from KK, he needs to go. 2 pts gone
I thought the 3rd and 4th lines probably had the most consistent good shifts tonight.
Love that low bar.
Quite a relevant response to a comment re: third and fourth lines been non-existent – I don’t agree.
Hamlin with the zone entry, over to Howard, drops to Prokop who sifts one through traffic and in from the point.
1-1.
Thx for the update but it feels frustrating to see the young talent developing and knowing they will not get a chance to get ice time with top offensive talent and will likely die on the vine here.
Stecher draws the penalty off Savoie on the GWG. Which is further proof of the poor roster deployment/decisions, compounded by shitty coaching
It was probably a bad call. But let’s say the speed of the game makes it hard on the refs, and give them the benefit of the doubt. What is not in doubt however is that this team needs to kill a penalty. That’s the real issue.
The ref is seen a few feet away staring at the interference occurring and then puts up the arm when the stick hits the face. Sorry that’s BS. Not only did they turn a mid PP into a high scoring 5v3 for nearly 2 mins, they stopped Janmark’s breakaway
They had killed the first 5 on 4 penalty and they are average this year on PK with a significant special teams goal differential. Don’t know where this is coming from, whatsoever.
Savoie with his 4th minor in the last five games.
Too many
Savoie is another Yamamoto….actually he is not even that.
10 shot against beats Ungar – a cross-ice pass goes off Milman’s skate and in – one of those.
Only way to stop that goal is to have a stick in the passing lane. Didn’t happen
Ekholm did get his stick on it….
The 2nd one
my bad
Token even up call loading. What a joke. They just decided the game. PK can’t piss a drop tho. The PK has been hot garbage for 2 years now
Alot scored from the LD side…
Dumb play by Janmark. Probably cost us the game
He was being held and tried to wrestle through it.
Still needlessly reckless with the stick. Has a history of this
Pathetic penalty kill
Refs called game
Seems like referees don’t mind getting involved sometimes. When it hurts the Oilers
If Janmark had popped him in the face would it have been offsetting calls, 2 for roughing and 2 for receiving roughing?
Bad calls, but you have to kill those penalties. PK is just bad lately.
It was nearly a 2 min 5 on 3
With 2 pk guys in the box
I get giving up one, but not the second.
Neither would have happened if it was a simple 5 on 4 2 min PK.
That’s an insane call for a 5on3. Even Simpson is calling BS
Brutal call
Should have been off setting calls. NHL officiating at its worst.
Drai needs to take this PK face-off because Lazar was pulled from the lineup.
The shitty roster decision that keeps on giving
It’s like every time the team gets back into the game, they just feel the need to punish themselves