How many truly talented forwards are available in the 2020 draft? Is it possible the Oilers could deliver more than one future NHL player, something the scouts accomplished with defensemen in 2015?
While we’re on the subject of 2015, how many outstanding forwards were available that season? How many turned out? Does 2020 have more or less?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
- Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s Oilers future uncertain as ‘sexy’ options emerge
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Wayne Gretzky: On the time he visited Moscow during the Cold War
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
- Lowetide: Comparison of Oilers, Flames drafts 2010-19 closer than it should be
- Lowetide: The most potent lines in Oilers history
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: On the time Dave Semenko fought Muhammad Ali
- Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
- Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
- Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
- Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
In 2014-15, 19 CHL players scored .68/game or more at even strength. Several would emerge as outstanding NHL players in the years that followed.
OHL 2014-15 FORWARDS
- Connor McDavid 47GP, 32-40-72 1.53 (351 NHL games)
- Dylan Strome 68GP, 31-48-79 1.16 (164)
- Mitch Marner 63GP, 25-37-62 .980 (300)
- Travis Konecny 60GP, 22-26-48 .800 (299)
- Dante Salituro 68GP, 23-27-50 .740
- Blake Speers 57GP, 14-25-39 .680 (3)
This is a tremendous group, with McDavid and Marner leading the way. Travis Konecny was a highly successful first-round selection, Dylan Strome has traction in Chicago. Speers was a third-round pick who didn’t develop and Salituro wasn’t drafted but did get an NHL contract in 2016 and has played pro. Everyone at .80 or better emerged as an NHL regular or better.
QMJHL 2014-15 FORWARDS
- Dmytro Timashev 66GP, 12-52-64 .970 (44 NHL games)
- Evgeny Svechnikov 55GP, 22-30-52 .950 (20)
- Timo Meier 61GP, 19-33-52 .850 (263)
- Yakov Trenin 58Gp, 12-33-45 .780 (21)
- Kay Schweri 53GP, 7-32-39 .740
- Filip Chlapik 64GP, 23-22-45 .700 (56)
- Dennis Yan 59GP, 23-18-41 .690
- Daniel Sprong 68GP, 22-24-46 .680 (97)
Timo Meier was a top-10 pick and emerged quickly as a solid NHL player. Yakov Trenin was a second-round selection and he arrived this season, looking good so far. Filip Chlapik was a second-round pick who has played in the NHL and is finding his way. Daniel Sprong was a second-round pick who has scored 19 goals in 97 NHL games but is on his third organization since turning pro.
Dmytro Timashov was a fifth round pick who played in the NHL for the first time this season. I think he has a chance. Evgeny Svechnikov was a top-20 pick who has stalled. Kay Schweri was not drafted and did not develop. Dennis Yan was an early third rounder (Lightning pick) who has been in the AHL for three seasons delivering pedestrian offense. Everyone over .80 has played in the NHL.
WHL 2014-15 FORWARDS
- Mathew Barzal 44GP, 9-25-34 .770 (234 NHL games)
- Paul Bittner 66GP, 23-26-49 .740
- Jansen Harkins 70GP, 16-36-52 .740 (29)
- Jake DeBrusk 72GP, 26-23-49 .680 (203)
Mathew Barzal was a mid-first and no one has heard from him since draft day. Jake DeBrusk went before Barzal and is building a solid NHL career. Jansen Harkins was chosen in the second round, took some time to find his way to the NHL, and looks like he has a shot. Paul Bittner was also a second and seems to have stalled in the AHL. None of the men in the WHL hit .80, but two of the four are legit NHL players or better.
One of the things NHLE attempts to correct is what you see here. Barzal’s number doesn’t look impressive beside the OHL and QMJHL kids but he did lead the WHL among kids age 17 in his draft year. Followed it up with a great deal of success in the NHL. Let’s have a look at this year’s group, I’m using Central Scouting’s final list as the pool, all players first time eligible. All numbers even strength and I’m looking for .68 points per game (same as last time).
OHL FORWARDS 2020
- Marco Rossi 56, 31-49-80 1.43
- Quinton Byfield 45, 24-32-56 1.24
- Cole Perfetti 69, 29-49-78 1.13
- Luke Evangelista 62, 22-35-57 0.92
- Jack Quinn 62, 34-19-53 0.86
- Martin Chromiak 28, 7-15-22 0.79
- Ty Tullio 62, 19-29-48 0.77
- Brandon Coe 60, 21-23-44 0.73
- Jacob Perreault 57, 24-17-41 0.72
- Evan Vierling 43, 13-18-31 0.72
- Tyson Foerster 62, 16-28-44 0.71
- Zayde Wisdom 62, 20-24-44 0.71
This is a monster list and a guy I really like (Jan Mysak) barely missed making it. One thing I would like to ask the group: When you see a dozen men posting above 0.68 per game at evens, how many would you rather have than Barzal, who posted just 0.77 per game? Very important to include context for scale. The dub is a more defensive league, and that doesn’t always mean less talented.
When you see a player like Evangelista so high, it tells us one good thing (he can flat out play at evens) and one poor thing (he doesn’t get power play time). I don’t have a good answer, quality scorers play with the man advantage. I am saying Evangelista, a February 2002, is worth a long look. London Knights are a deep team, that’s certainly part of the explanation.
QMJHL FORWARDS 2020
- Alexis Lafreniere 52, 30-40-70 1.35
- Mavrik Bourque 49, 25-20-45 0.92
- Ryan Francis 61, 21-34-55 0.90
- Dawson Mercer 42, 16-18-34 0.81
- William Dufour 59, 25-21-46 0.78
- Hendrix Lapierre 19, 2-12-14 0.74
There’s a big gap between Lafreniere and the rest of the group, I think that’s an indicator of “special” quality ala McDavid. I’m not saying he IS McDavid, only that at even strength he is elite in his own league. I like Bourque a lot, Mercer too, and Francis shows well here. I’m not sure what to make of Hendrix Lapierre. Injuries during draft seasons are a major pain in the ass.
WHL FORWARDS 2020
- Seth Jarvis 58, 32-36-68 1.17
- Justin Sourdif 57, 22-25-47 0.82
- Jake Neighbours 64, 19-31-50 0.78
- Connor Zary 57, 20-24-44 0.77
- Jack Finley 61, 15-32-47 0.77
- Tristen Robins 62, 23-25-48 0.77
- Connor McLennon 42, 15-15-30 0.71
- Pavel Novak 55, 16-22-38 0.69
Jarvis is a nice player, these are good numbers. I don’t know where he’ll go (I have Jarvis and Zary top 20) but it’s possible we see a slide and that could set up another Barzal moment in the draft. In the most defensive league in the CHL, he posted the fourth best number. Zary does well in rankings, don’t think he’ll slit. This fellow Finley keeps showing up in good places, I’m going to spend a little more time looking at his season in the days to come. Neighbours is a player I have pegged as a future Ethan Moreau but he shows very well here.
PONDERING
This is even strength scoring and I remain unconvinced it uncovers those two-way Dave Keon/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins types but I like to run it every year. I used to believe in this area a lot, but kids who get power-play time (or really extra minutes on special teams) in draft seasons tend to be more successful. Even the good two-way players are prone to this:
- Nuge at evens 2010-11: 69, 20-27-47 0.68
- Nuge on PP 2010-11: 69, 11-48-59 0.86
- Nuge overall 2010-11: 69, 31-75-106 1.54
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll kickstart a beautiful spring weekend with lots of sports talk. Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports will talk about the NFL draft and last night’s presentation and how hurdles can turn into blessings on television. Matt Iwanyk will join me at 11 for Point-Counter Point and we’ll talk about the first round of the NFL draft and the weekend to come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
You really do work hard building your narrative, don’t you? Nurse’s birthday is in February, and last I checked that isn’t “soon”.
Yes there’s a lot we don’t know still. Those numbers suggest:
1) we’re closer to herd immunity than we realize, and
2) the virus is less deadly than we realize.
Both would be good news, if true.
lol.
I’ll take Buffalo
Dahlin
There is dumb and then there is Trump dumb. Congrats. You qualified with that statement.
It’s why Sweden went with herd immunity. There are a lot of people studying this situation who think that the only way out of this is to let it run its course and that no measures taken will do more than slow the spread as opposed to stop it.
There are more questions than answers though with this virus. Disparity of death rates between countries. Difference in severity between those who contract it. I have yet to hear reasonable answers to either of those.
Not a vaccine but this could be a pretty big deal, no?
“1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html
jp: I take it you were looking for this?
Harpers Hair
Hanifin – 23 GP…389
Andersson– 23 GP…160
Kylington – 22 GP…87
Kinvall – 22 GP…0
Poolman -24 GP…0
Valimaki – 21 GP…24
Nurse – 25 GP…350
Benning -25. GP…248
Lagesson – 24 GP…8
Bear – 22 GP…89
Jones – 22 GP…60
Berglund – 22 GP…0
Bouchard – 20 GP…7
Samorukov – 20 GP…0
Broberg -18 GP…0
A fine example of trolling. What one beholds as supremely desirable of 1 list over the other is purely bias at its best. If Woodguy was around, I’d ask him to tell you, Andrew, where Ricki lives so that you can poke him with your stick.
The only thing being blown away is your credibility with posts like this. Stick to the recipes…
Yup, Hannifin is younger and he’s good but not that good. Room to grow by Nurse/Klefbom trump Hannifin.
I’ll take Bear over Andersson – very comparable but Bear is younger.
Jones vs. Kylington is a toss-up – probably favors Jones given 2020.
Bouchard >>>> Valimaki
The new Swede and the 24 year old college signing could turn out to be NHL players or nothing but tweeners – same with Berglund and Samorukov.
Broberg could be the best of the entire list – years to go though.
Of course you’d take the flames group but you’d also take Rafferty over Bouchard, Klefbom and Bear so your opinion on this, well, not sure it can be taken all that seriously.
But Bouchard, Berglund and Broberg count?
Ha, you’re welcome.
It takes more than a list of drafted players for defensive depth. What you are showing is merely a list of names after the first three or four.
Thanks for this. It answered every question I had.
Yup, Hannifin is younger and he’s good but not that good. Room to grow by Nurse/Klefbom trump Hannifin.
I’ll take Bear over Andersson – very comparable but Bear is younger.
Jones vs. Kylington is a toss-up – probably favors Jones given 2020.
Bouchard >>>> Valimaki
The new Swede and the 24 year old college signing could turn out to be NHL players or nothing but tweeners – same with Berglund and Samorukov.
Broberg could be the best of the entire list – years to go though.
Of course you’d take the flames group but you’d also take Rafferty over Bouchard, Klefbom and Bear so your opinion on this, well, not sure it can be taken all that seriously.
Exactly where he ranks in career points as of today.
Nurse is less than a year older than Poolman.
And well, good luck with the Calgary group. I’ll stick with the Oilers one.
In a perfect world, they would give those older D the boot. But these are your hapless fLames. They actually think Brodie can play on the top pair? How long is Gio supposed to carry him? How do you win the Norris then turn into a playoff no show pylon in the same year? Season too long for Geritol Gio? Will Hurtmonic ever play a full season? Good thing they have those young defensemen, they’ll need every one of them they way these 3 are trending.
Nurse will be 26 soon. Hanifin is much younger.
Benning is likely gone.
At 24, Lagesson ain’t much.
Samorukov is a distant bell.
I would take the Calgary group in a heartbeat.
I take it you were looking for this?
Nurse – 25
Benning -25
Lagesson – 24
Bear – 22
Jones – 22
Berglund – 22
Bouchard – 20
Samorukov – 20
Broberg -18
There are clearly a ton of high scoring forwards this year but league scoring differences leave a 2015 to 2020 comparison a bit incomplete.
I looked at how many goals were scored per game in each league and each year to see if we can normalize things:
2014-15
OHL — 7.01
QMJHL 7.04
WHL — 6.62
2019-20
OHL — 7.72
QMJHL 6.93
WHL — 6.54
The OHL was indeed very high scoring this season, and the WHL has been the most defensive league both years.
The OHL scored more than a goal per game more than the WHL this year but it’s still not 20% more scoring, and that’s the biggest difference. What were the percentage differences in G/GP, taking 19-20 WHL as 100%?
2014-15
OHL — 107
QMJHL 108
WHL — 101
2019-20
OHL — 118
QMJHL 106
WHL — 100
Using 0.68 even strength points per game in the lowest scoring league (19-20 WHL) as the cutoff, what would the corresponding PPG in the other leagues/years need to be?
2014-15
OHL — 0.729
QMJHL 0.731
WHL — 0.689
2019-20
OHL — 0.803
QMJHL 0.721
WHL — 0.680
So revisiting the lists above, how many players from each league/year meet these cutoffs?
2014-15
OHL — 5
QMJHL 5
WHL — 3
2019-20
OHL — 5
QMJHL 6
WHL — 8
Wow, that really took the sails out of this years OHL crew (5 from 12 initially). But the QMJHL and WHL look really good.
So, 13 players from 2014-15 reached the normalized cutoff. 19 players reached the normalized cutoff this season.
And if you normalize the 0.800 cutoff that LT mentions above you get:
2014-15
OHL — 3
QMJHL 2
WHL — 0
2019-20
OHL — 3
QMJHL 3
WHL — 2
8 players this year to 5 in 2015.
This is a damn strong draft year by the looks of it, as we keep hearing about. Oilers should get a nice player at 23 you’d think.
Hanifin – 23
Andersson – 23
Kylington – 22
Kinvall – 22
Poolman -24
Valimaki – 21
Pretty much blows away any teams defensive depth.
That’s too bad. Was hoping they’d keep t-minus Brodie and Hurtmonic to complement the Norris winner turned pylon.
That’d be real cool.
Didn’t expect that so soon.
Thanks for changing the format of the comment section LT
With the signings of two blue chip undrafted D, the Flames are loading up on young D,
Remember they also signed NCAA star Colton Poolman a while back.
TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic will likely be looking for a job.
I don’t think it can be official without the transfer agreement in place.
On the heels of Brooks hearing one team was looking to start up on May 15th:
John Scott
@johnscott_32
·
45m
Just got word that the NHL camps will begin again June 1… European players are coming back soon #breaking
Whoa, 40 points in 51 games this year – damn, that’s good at that age for a d-man.
Double his output (similar games) from the previous year.
That could be it. That and what OP suggested that there is another signing close and they want to announce them together.
I just thought it was strange with fans starved for news that it wouldn’t have come out through an official press release.
Depends on the team drafting and whether they value a franchise D or C more.
More from Friedman that could explain the holdup on Berglun’s contract.
The NHL transfer agreement is expiring and the league is looking at extending it by one year.
An announcement expected next week.
Heiskanen would go #1.
Elliotte Friedman reporting the Flames are closing in on signing 22 year RHD Johannes Kinvall who was second in SHL D scoring.
Definitely could go 1st overall but no sure thing. Top 3 for sure but botha case can be made for both Heiskanen and Makar to go ahead.
Makar’s PPG aren’t far off from Petersson this year didn’t really improve on his rookie season.
No deadline – he can sign any time.
My guess is it done and they are waiting for Marcus Niemeläinen to sign and it’ll be announced together.
I don’t see why Matty would just make that up?
The kid can also just not sign his ELC……….
For CHL drafted kids, after two years, if they aren’t signed, the NHL team loses their rights (they go back in the draft or become a UFA depending on age).
On point 1 – I don’t think that’s actually the case – the are contemplating the draft but still a potential completion of the year, or at least playoffs.
From what I’ve heard/read, the June draft idea has been met with general negativity among managers, etc.
Don’t see it happening (unless the season is cancelled – which is not the current contemplated idea).
A bit misleading – as per the article, Brooks is saying that he’s heard one team is planning for a camp report date for May 15.
The article also has a quote from Bill Daly saying that he doesn’t know what teams have told players but there is nothing from the league on this.
Of course, with two week mandatory isolation for international travel, if that’s the case, the players better get where they need to within the next week….
Lastly, Larry Brooks……
Hilarious how many posters dumped on Benning for selecting Pettersson so high.
He would go first overall in a re-draft.
Agreed. Matty many not be cutting edge after all these decades but he is definitely old school when it comes to getting it right and owning up if something goes amiss.
ArmchairGM,
That’s fantastic, I’ll review these guys some more. Thank you.
Fun to look back at your lists ….. You had a great Top 20 ….
I feel like Matty is the kind of guy who would have publicly retracted the statement if it turned out he was in error.
I find it strange that with so little going on that the team wouldn’t have made an announcement just to stay in the news.
Could they be waiting for a deadline in the SHL to pass to make it official?
Neither Cap Friendly or Puckpedia have him listed on the roster.
Likely didnt happen.
As JP mentioned, Lapierre is a slide candidate. Looking at McKenzie’s mid-term list, I’d say these players are likely to outperform their ranking:
#24 Seth Jarvis
#28 Mavrik Bourque
#29 Lukas Reichel
#40 Tyson Foerster
#41 Helge Grans
#53 Jan Mysak
#60 Nico Daws
#62 Luke Evangelista
Keep in mind these rankings will change drastically when the next list arrives.
Searched through Oiler Twit account and I got nothing.
Found out though that i still get all phklempt whenever I see that video of the cars lined up on the highway for Caver.
As far as I can tell all of Bourque, Laperierre and Jarvis would be great picks around #23.
I’d forgotten that! Fair to say he had more than one thing to recommend him.
“You gotta draft me, otherwise I’m gonna come back and haunt you.” ( Ie, The Moto Motto)
I’d say he interviewed well, lol.
I know that Matheson announced that the Oilers have signed Berglund but has anybody seen an official announcement?