The 2020-21 season will be an important one for Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody. The two men were exceptional together as AHL rookies, posting strong numbers across the board. Year two brought challenges, setting up a possible crossroads they enter the final year of entry contracts.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘They were looking outside the box’: Oilers’ distinctive third jerseys still stand out
- New Lowetide: If Oilers draft for skill, Seth Jarvis likely to be best available
- New Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Taylor Hall this summer?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: The results are in: How you voted in our inaugural Oilers fan survey
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers are preparing for an NHL draft in June
- Jonathan Willis: How Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Riley Sheahan draw calls that lead to goals
- James Mirtle: Ranking every NHL team’s salary cap situation, from best to worst
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers find Connor McDavid’s ideal winger this summer?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The two coaches who had the biggest influence on Dave Tippett
- Jonathan Willis: The 5 reasons why the Oilers re-signed Gaetan Haas
- Jonathan Willis: Can (and should) the Oilers trade Kris Russell?
- Jonathan Willis: How Edmonton could have left 2010 draft with both Taylor Hall and Ryan Johansen
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s NHL comparables offer Oilers fans hope for the future
- Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
- Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
- Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
THE 2016 SECOND ROUND
I run this every summer, as the pick was controversial in real time. Alex DeBrincat didn’t score 40 in 2019-20 but remains a quality NHL scorer. The other names on this list will spend the next decade fighting over place and show, but the Blackhawks grabbed the top man available.
Korshkov, Benson and Asplund all made their NHL debuts this season. My own opinion is Benson and Kyrou are on a higher trajectory than the rest but that’s a guess. I have a piece on Benson for The Athletic today, will link in comments section.
Opening night 2020-21
I’ve been trying to write this for a week but the Oilers kept signing new people. Let’s play a roster game: Assuming Edmonton signs Tyler Ennis and Riley Sheahan, trades Matt Benning and Kris Russell, buys out James Neal, name your team with lines and pairings.
Tyler Ennis—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian. Ennis posted 1.84 points-per-60 at five on five after coming over (9, 2-2-4) and consistently found a way to get scoring chances in the discipline. Ideally you grab an impact winger for 97 but money is tight. I also like the idea of a two-way type like Vladislav Namestnikov, but money’s too tight to mention. Signing Ennis means coach Dave Tippett will have several options on McDavid’s LW, including a player in Ennis who could score 20 goals in 2020-21.
Nuge—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto. I don’t believe this line will hang together all year, but there’s not a coach in captivity who would shuffle them until the trio cools down. Leon at center appears to have finally landed.
Andreas Athanasiou—Gaetan Haas—Alex Chiasson. The re-signing of Haas acknowledges both his uniqueness and the lack of easily available options. He and AA should be able to pressure opponents with their speed and Chiasson is a veteran presence.
Joakim Nygard—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald. This line played just 68 minutes together and had an expected goals percentage of 49.16 in that time. Both wingers can skate and Sheahan is going to get some tough assignments. I like this group.
Jujhar Khaira, Cooper Marody. I’ve chosen two players who could play center and each man can play on one special team. Marody is less than $1 million and offers some insurance against having to move Haas to the wing.
Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson. My guess is that Holland and Tippett will want to roll a veteran tandem. These men have played together a lot over the years and were bringing it at the end of the year. In 307 minutes from January 1 to the end of the season, the tandem had an expected goals total of 50.57 percent.
Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear. For the season, this pair had an expected goals percentage of 49.06 and that includes plenty of time against elites. Finished 55-62 five on five goal differential, I think the coaching staff will be content to run them again.
Caleb Jones—Mike Green. Ken Holland likes veteran defensemen and I do believe Green will return on (probably) a two-year deal. Jones was bringing it after his recall, this pairing could play far more than Tippett’s third pair did in 2019-20.
William Lagesson. The youngster can play NHL hockey, it’ll be important to see how much of the load he can carry. If he proves himself, at the very least he would represent trade value at the deadline.
Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith. I think the Oilers will bring back this tandem. I’m fairly certain of it, although Smith will be more expensive.
One question you may have after reading: What did I do with the cap dollars made available in buying out Neal? Answer comes in overage from 2019-20 bonuses, signing Smith, Green, Ennis and Sheahan. I tried to add a big name incorporating the current cap, but the money ran out and the engine blew. Final note: I would have Evan Bouchard on the opening night roster. I believe the Oilers will send him back for more time in California.
I think its important to have cover in case of injuries and to not slot a player into a role that he hasn’t yet proven ready for – the to extent possible.
I think Bouchard should be a fine 3RD but he hasn’t proven that yet – especially with the likely 3LD to be another youngster.
I don’t think moving an incombent RD without acquiring another (Green included, he’s not signed) on the premise of making room for Bouchard at 3RD is smart.
Happy to chat if you have would like to talk hockey/Oilers….
SJS sign KHL goaltender Alexi Melnichuk.
1.68 GAA .930 SV %.
Leafs sign Mikko Lehtonen.
https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/news/maple-leafs-sign-free-agent-defenceman-mikko-lehtonen/c-316809554
I don’t think you’re exaggerating at all.
When I read between the lines on this thread I’m pretty sure OP wants Bouchard to start the season as 4RD on the depth chart. Waiting for him to post it 3 more times to clarify it for me. Lol.
Ha! Fair. It probably requires a compliance buyout on Neal. Even then its probably a bit too ambitious. I will admit LT’s projected lineup is more reasonable than mine.
I believe the Oilers can be contenders with 2 upgrades – 3C and 1LW. I dont love the bet on AA as he hasnt proven to be a good possession player. Id like a guy to help 97 push the river. But the cost isnt horrible and AA seems to out GF his CF every year meaning he can finish. Sheahan and JJ got fed on 5 on 5. Id potentially keep Sheahan as his cost is likely to be under 1.5m and he can help on the PK. Best to see options first imo.
Oilers have a Russell and Chaison off the books here shortly but have to resign Yamo, Nurse and Nuge. I like Benning, I dont hate a 1 year deal for Green. Id keep Larson a year and see how he does. The top 4 needs him this year for sure as Bear faded 2nd half. Hard to blame the rookie though. Man theres a lot of moving parts. Im hoping Benson has his Stoll or Brodziak offseason and shows up ready this fall too. 1-2 capable additions (JP?) on the bottom 6 would go a long ways.
That’s a testament, it really is a special community you’ve created. Thank you (and I’m remembering it’s been a while since I donated).
Lowetide,
Good job so, I pay attention to the details of every one of your posts. Very informative. Thank you.
Maybe an online poll? Who are your favourite posters in the LT comments?
Congrats LT. Love the community. But, of the 1M posts, likely 250K from OP. With easily half of those simply him repeating himself. And 50K from HH. Baiting OP. Not a criticism. And I know I am exaggerating, I mostly cruise by both. Just sayin.
Can I suggest, when you hit 1M, a tribute to the great posters.
David
Congrats!
If you don’t count OPs that’s about 100,000.
Still very good!
Congrats!
“?
Justin Shultz had a reasonably good rookie season, then they said bye-bye to Jeff Petry, placing Shultz as 1RD and, well……
A great example of why its the organization needs to ensure there is adequate depth on the right side so one injury isn’t forcing Bouchard up to the top 4, likely prematurely.
I’m happy to be part of the group too, and learn so much from you and others. We’re coming up on one million comments over about 15 years. A great time.
In the end, Schultz flat out collapsed on the ice as an Oiler. At first he was good, but got overwhelmed when called on to be Paul Coffey lol
The others got the “They’re only stupid euros anyway” treatment.
I hear rumours how Buffalo has impossible management structure and it might be just a matter of time before Eichel puts in a trade request. They have taken the former Oilers crown of hapless NHL leading franchise, or are close to it.
I don’t disagree with the premise of the above at all – the main point, which we seem to agree on, is that there should be 3 incumbent NHL right shot D – Benning (nor Larsson) should be moved prior to the season without an NHL RD brought in.
The only part of the above that I would play devils’ advocate on is the premise of Bouchard “winning the job in camp” – we’ve seen, over the years, year after year, that a great camp and exhibition season, by high talent prospects, does not necessarily equate to NHL readiness – we’ve seen the likes of Yamamoto and Puljujarvi and Rattie have great exhibition seasons but not be NHL ready.
With that said, if Bouchard blows camp away, it would be tough to send him down (although waivers exempt while Willie being subject thereto could play a role). 8D and 13D is a possibility as well.
Miles to go before those decisions have to be made.
Yeah for sure Bouchard is likely to grab the 3RD job once he gets the call.
I was mostly responding to your comment from earlier in the thread “The 4RD (and the 4LD) will probably end up playing 50 plus games each.” I should have gone back and quoted that one. But it’s not a true statement based on last seasons numbers.
Nobody would thing that’s a great thing, OP. And nobody said it would be. Just that he can play there and has played there a lot as a professional.
And, yes, I think everybody knows the NHL is faster than the AHL although I am not sure how which side you are on has anything to do with how quickly a player makes decisions. It’s just easier to have your stick in the right place if you are on your natural side.
Everyone gets injured…it’s a thing.
Except Bouchard of course.
I did not say anything about trading Benning. What I said is Bouchard should get the third pairing right D if he wins the spot in training camp. Bouchard should not stay up as the 7th D. In the event he does not win the third pairing right D at camp he gets sent down to the AHL. Russel should be moved if possible. Benning should only be moved once Bouchard has shown he is capable to handle third pairing right D. I agree that Bouchard should not be given the third pairing spot. I do believe he should be given every opportunity to win the job in training camp and preseason games.
Truth in advertising. Nice of DSF to warn readers that his logic is pure pretzel
Covid Discount player is just as likely to get injured.
Bob’s uncle, likely injured as well.
Yes, he played the right side more often than the left side in the AHL.
The AHL is not the NHL where the players are faster and decisions need to be made quicker and plays made quicker – a main issue with playing the off-side is it generally requires additional time to make plays.
Yes, Tippett talked about his footwork helping him on his off-side when he first played a couple games on the right.
From my recollection, Jones’ best hockey was by far on the left side and the player himself spoke expressly about moving to his natural side helping his game and leading to his success.
Of course, Jones can be a 3RD fill in option for a game here or there but, if Ethan Bear goes down for 6 weeks and we have Larsson, Bouchard, Jones on the right side, well, I don’t think that’s a great thing.
What a wild post.
and, if Bouchard’s play is “meh” then he’ll probably play in that range – of course, if he plays great when he’s called on, he’ll keep playing and the “veteran” Benning or Green will have to earn their way back i.
Of course, near everything is impossible to say with any certainty.
The Canucks do have some cap to spend, but a starting goalie, top 6 winger and apparently a 2RD will eat that up in a quick hurry.
Do you also believe this to be true for JSchultz, Yakupov, Puljujarvi and the like?
Impossible to say at this point.
For example, the Canucks could sign Travis Hamonic on a Covid Discount contract and Bobs your uncle.
Less than 20 of those were unrestricted FAs who were NHL regulars (40+games this year). Only 10 of those played even 18 minutes a game (we’re talking 2nd pair after all). There really aren’t that many D available. Glad the Oilers have 2 locked up (and arguably 4 on the current roster).
Anyway, we were told Rafferty would be the Canucks 2RD so you’d think any injury to him would be far more significant than one to the Oilers 4/5RD.
I believe he played pretty much his entire time in the AHL on the right side so that is a little bit more than “he has played at right D” and Tippett has commented that he is capable on that side due to his skating. If memory serves he was chosen by Tippett over Russell for a few games this season.
Nobody suggested he was a long term solution on the right side. Just that it was one of the the attributes that can play into how the roster is set.
If anything I would think it took him some time to settle back into playing on the left side after years of being on his off side in Bakersfield.
Pretzel Logic.
1) Defensemen get injured a lot therefore Bouchard will play at least 40 games even if he is #4RD.
2) Bouchard is invincible so the above does not apply to him.
3) or, he’s not a defenseman.
Say what ?
There are currently 92 RH free agent defensemen available.
Finding cover won’t be difficult as many teams will be cap strapped.
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2021/caphit/all/defense/all/desc/1/right
Actually, I recommend keeping Matty Benning and moving on from Mike Green but, yes, absolutely, I recommend not moving on from incumbent NHLers in order to open up a spot for a 21 year that, while likely ready, has not yet proven it.
Go in to camp with Bouchard as 3RD and the team is one injury away from him being 2RD.
Starting the year at 4RD likely leads to him playing most of the games in any event.
William Lagesson is amply able to fill on the 3rd pairing for a game or two if there is a bump or a bruise or a game time decision. If a real call-up is required then, if they need a right D, Bouchard is the man.
I see absolutely no problem with Bouchard starting in the AHL and Lagesson as 7D – when an injury occurs, handedness (and possibly skill-set – Larsson = Lagess, Bear = Bouchard) makes the ultimate decision.
He has played right D but, then again, we can say that with respect to Kris Russell – it doesn’t mean that its a great idea.
Our coach has been express that he prefers rightie/leftie with the d-man but he did play Jones at right D on occasion when necessary. Jones seemingly played much better on his natural left side and I do recall an interview with him late in the season when he was really starting to play well where he himself stated that getting moved to his natural left side was a big factor in his improved play.
For short term cover, in a pinch, ya, its a definite option but I sure wouldn’t want to be relying on Jones as #4 on the right side depth chart.
Holland said that over ripening when he did it had to do with his NHL roster. At the time they could sign UFAs at will for cheap, there weren’t open NHL spots. He also said he’d play the best available player.
Now it seems he wants, and has said, kids have to steal a job from a vet to get it.
Same thing but with Oiler context and clarity. And the correct way.
Well, ya, but that could be said of any player in professional spots in the context of roster consutruction.
What an odd post as I’m fairly certain that Bouchard has zero history of material injury through his junior and pro career.
Experienced yes, still effective?
I’m not convinced Green is any more effective than another younger in house player would be.
Knowing what to do (which defensively was never his strength) and being still able aren’t the same thing.
We have seen this repeatedly over the years. Done is done. Rookie learning with mistakes has far more value than done vet with mistakes. If the GA are the same play the rookie.
I’ll second that. Love your insights on prospects and players of interest. I always read every word you post here.
On the other hand, trading incumbents on the premise that a developing player is ready or will take that next step, without them having proven ready in the NHL, is also not a good way to develop a player – the Oilers have been guilty of doing that for years and its hurt the team and the development of various players.
The premise would be Bouchard starts in the AHL and, once the opportunity is granted (be it due to injury, elite AHL performance or both), Bouchard takes the opportunity and runs with it.
Klefbom played 9 games with the Barons prior to playing 60 in the NHL in 2014/15 and Nurse played 9 games with the Condors in 2015/16 prior to 69 with the Oilers.
And that would be a far more damaging injury, we’re the Canucks 2RD to go down.
In 2018-19 the median #7D played 38 games. The median #8D played 25 games.
SwedishPoster,
Worthy or not, your contributions are very much appreciated! 🙂
McDavid on Spittin’ Chiclits tomorrow.
As an aside: Pronger last week was awesome.
OriginalPouzar,
“I have little doubt that Bouchard, after starting the year in the AHL, will get the call and early and, once he does, he’s unlikely to ever reside in California again until he’s retired.”
I`m really trying to follow your logic…..so you recommend signing Green to a two year at $2 million per then binging up Bouchard after 20 games permanently based on the fact he has then earned the right to stay ! How does that work against the cap ? Simple solution: Do Not resign Green ! and Bouchard starts with the big club…..Cause he`s earned it already.
~ But Rafferty is just as likely to be injured ~
I’m hopeful for a bounce-back from Marody a year removed from the Kessy assault.
From his own account, he’s finally starting to feel removed from injury (although I don’t know if he was speaking about his head or other bangs from last season).
Great job getting rid of each of Neal, Rusty and Chiasson clean….. its probably as likely as trading Lucic for Neal was……. wait a second….
I am fine with a Green signing if they move on from Benning – subject to dollars of course, I wouldn’t be in favor of it costing more than Benning so no more than $2M.
Berglund will be in the mix for the following season so I see no reason for term (although who knows if Larsson will still be in the mix at that time).
To me, they need to come to camp with Bouchard as 4th on the right side depth chart, needing to earn a spot over an incumbent NHL player, whether its Benning, Green or an outside acquisition.
4RD will most likely play more NHL games than not given injury.
The Oilers have done great work over the last few years to get depth at certain positions – depth that forces the prospects to earn a spot as oppossed to going in to a season counting on the prospect to have taken that step.
I have little doubt that Bouchard, after starting the year in the AHL, will get the call and early and, once he does, he’s unlikely to ever reside in California again until he’s retired. With that said, he should have to jump Green/Benning as oppossed to be slotted in to that 3RD spot.
If he’s slotted in that 3RD spot, all of a sudden, he’s 2RD if Bear or Larsson get banged up – which will happen.
Probably get him for a cap dump
Mike Green is not able to stay healthy. Lucky if we get 60 games out of him. But I’d put the likelihood of Holland re-signing him at 75%-80%.
Thank you so much for the kind words in yesterday’s post LT. Not sure I’m worthy of it but so very nice of you. I didn’t have time to read and comment yesterday so just read your post(blushing slightly) but feel I need to thank you both for what you wrote yesterday but also for the quality posts and articles you write every day.
I’m really happy just to be part of this great community you’ve created and try to contribute as best I can.