I was convinced the Edmonton Oilers and new general manager Ken Holland would harvest two or three USHL players at the 2019 draft. The US National Team played in the alley behind his house! He must have known these young players front to back and back to front again.
I wrote the following about Trevor Zegras, who was available when Edmonton stepped to the podium: “Undersized and highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed. I think he’s a Ken Holland type.” Holland kept his powder dry on the USHL kids until pick No. 100. Pretty good poker player, that Ken Holland.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: What are Evan Bouchard’s chances of making the Oilers in 2020-21?
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Who are the Oilers’ top 10 prospects and where do they project in the NHL?
- Jonathan Willis: How do Connor McDavid’s first five NHL seasons compare to the all-time greats?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 draft: Are fans ready for Oil Kings’ Jake Neighbours?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers need to keep feeding their currently rich pipeline of defensive prospects
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a series of oddball jobs prepared Ken Holland for his front-office career
- Jonathan Willis: 2020 NHL offseason goalie market: Team needs, free agents and trade possibilities
- Lowetide: Oilers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins far more than ‘also in photo’ contributor
- Jonathan Willis: Building the best all-time Oilers roster, with a twist
- Lowetide: What are Tyler Benson’s chances of making the Oilers in 2020-21?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘They were looking outside the box’: Oilers’ distinctive third jerseys still stand out
- Lowetide: If Oilers draft for skill, Seth Jarvis likely to be best available
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Taylor Hall this summer?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: The results are in: How you voted in our inaugural Oilers fan survey
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers are preparing for an NHL draft in June
- Jonathan Willis: How Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Riley Sheahan draw calls that lead to goals
- James Mirtle: Ranking every NHL team’s salary cap situation, from best to worst
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers find Connor McDavid’s ideal winger this summer?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The two coaches who had the biggest influence on Dave Tippett
- Jonathan Willis: The 5 reasons why the Oilers re-signed Gaetan Haas
- Jonathan Willis: Can (and should) the Oilers trade Kris Russell?
- Jonathan Willis: How Edmonton could have left 2010 draft with both Taylor Hall and Ryan Johansen
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s NHL comparables offer Oilers fans hope for the future
- Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
USHL 2020 TOP PLAYERS
- LD Jake Sanderson. Smart player, incredible skater and has complete skill set.
- LC Ty Smilanic. Scouting report talks about plus skating and finding another gear.
- RW Sam Colangelo. Big power winger with skill, scored 28 goals in 44 games.
- LC Thomas Bordeleau. Owns a great shot and is highly skilled with the puck.
- LW Brendan Brisson. Undersized speedster has lots of talent, good skater.
- RW Daniil Gushchin. Small, speedy playmaking forward. Good numbers.
- LW Sean Farrell. A good skater with plus skills, he is posting strong numbers this season.
- LW Luke Tuch. Alex Tuch’s brother, plays a similar style. Numbers are good not great.
- LW Brett Berard. Small skill winger with good hands, he scored seven goals in 13 games.
- LD Tyler Kleven. A big shutdown defenseman (6.04, 201) with good speed.
- LC Cameron Berg. Good speed and skill, scored 18 goals in 30 games.
- RC Colby Ambrosio. Speedster, very skilled, I love his resume. Just 5.08, he’s a bullet.
- RD Eamon Powell. Impressive skater can move the puck effectively
- LD Dave Ma. Tremendous skater and very creative.
- LW Alex Laferriere. Great shot, good passer, creative player. Skating the concern.
- LD Mitch Miller. Fine skater, has two-way skills.
- LW Carson Bantle. Big winger, has skill, average skater, lots of primary points.
- LD Jacob Truscott. Offensive defenseman who has some edge to his game.
- RD Luke Reid. Good speed and can move the puck.
- G Drew Commesso. Good size, thrived wherever he played in 2019-20. Big step forward.
- RD Noah Ellis. Big blue impressed at Hlinka.
- LC Ryan Kirwan. Haven’t read about him, just know he can score goals.
- LD Christian Jiminez. Offensive defenseman.
Several quality talents here, I’m impressed by Colangelo, Brisson, Farrell and Powell. I don’t know why Holland avoided the USHL kids last season, so will be cautious in projecting draft picks from this league for Edmonton. Since 2000, Matt Greene, Jeff Petry and Caleb Jones have been procured from the USHL so it’s worth mining.
USHL IN 2019
- LC Jack Hughes. He’s a rocket who can make hockey plays at peak speed consistently.
- LC Alex Turcotte. A strong two-way reputation, he is skilled and an excellent skater.
- LC Trevor Zegras. Highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed.
- R Cole Caufield. He’s small, fast and a ridiculous scorer. Quick release, accurate.
- LD Cam York. Impact puck mover out of the USHL, great speed, passing and creativity.
- L Matthew Boldy. Bigger winger with skill, he’s strong on the puck and can score goals.
- R Bobby Brink. Small, fast and very skilled, he’s an intelligent player with great vision.
- L Egor Afanasyev. He’s a big forward with a powerful stride and an excellent shot.
- G Spencer Knight. A .929 save percentage and a mountain of positive scouting reports
- L Robert Mastrosimone. Skill winger.
- L Vladislav Firstov. Skill winger has a plus shot and delivered impressive results.
- RD Drew Helleson. Impressive puck moving defender.
- LD Henry Thrun. He’s a two-way defender who delivered sold offense (23 points in 28 games).
- RC Shane Pinto. Big RHC intriguing because of his size (6.02, 192) and scoring prowess.
- LC John Beecher. Center with good size and two-way ability.
- LD Alex Vlasic. Big defender who will make his living on the defensive side of the puck.
- R Judd Caulfield. He’s a power forward.
- L Marcus Kallionkieli. He scored 29 goals in 58 games, that’s excellent production.
- LC Matias Maccelli. Lots of skill, was dominant (62, 31-41-72) offensively.
- RD Ronnie Attard. He’s a 1999. Still, he’s a giant with a bomb for a shot and that has appeal.
- LD Ryan Johnson. Smart, mobile defender who hasn’t shown offensive ability.
I listed 21 a year ago and every damned one of them was chosen. The guy I had at No. 21 (Ryan Johnson) went No. 31 overall! What a year for the USHL. Jack Hughes played in the NHL, giving us our first pure shot at a direct NHLE for the league (it’s .17).
I liked Matej Blumel, but didn’t include him on the list, he would have been in the top 25. There were 44 USHL players chosen in the 2019 draft. My list goes 125 deep, suspect all 23 names above or close make my final list.
One of the issues in ranking these players comes in figuring out why some members of the U.S. National Development Team don’t play a lot in the USHL. I don’t have Landon Slaggert ranked but he scored pretty well at even strength with the US Team outside the USHL (exhibition games). I’m guessing that he is shy offensively and have decided to exclude him. However, that’s the same reason I excluded Caleb Jones in 2015.
There’s also the matter of feeder leagues. A player like David Ma from Shattuck is about where John Marino was on his draft day and has played in the USHL. I’ve listed him here but technically he belongs to the USHS list.
I think it’s probably very important to have contacts in that program, in order to find guys like Caleb Jones. Based on math, I think the best late bet from the USHL (Round 5 or later) is David Ma. I assume this means he goes No. 31 overall.
Bouchard’s offense in his AHL rookie campaign is exceptional when placed in context. He led the Condors in assists and was tied for second in overall scoring. He also improved defensively, as I noted in my article about him for The Athletic yesterday.
POSSIBLE 2020 TOP 100 TARGETS
No. 20 overall: Jan Mysak, Seth Jarvis, Mavrik Bourque, Noel Gunler, Rodion Amirov
No. 82 overall: Brandon Coe, Alex Cotton, Theo Rochette, Helge Grans, Luke Reid
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy show and some actual live sports to review! We get rolling at 10, TSN1260. Aaron Bronsteter, who is TSN’s UFC Reporter, will review a frantic weekend that was UFC 249. Does it prove live sports is back? What is the fallout, boy? We’ll find out. At 11 Jason Gregor will talk UFC, the NHL’s next step and MLB’s return. Curtis Lazar of the Buffalo Sabres will remember the Oil Kings 2014 WHL Championship and run to the Memorial Cup. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Yeah that was lazy writing on their part. Boqvist, Sandin, Dobson all being ranked automatically higher because of GP doesnt paint the whole picture. Its a funny exercise to punish/diminish prospects based on team depth/not rushing them.
Toronto and Chicago both lack D depth and Dobson wasnt eligible to play in the AHL. So it was scratch him for half the season (he had 34GP TOTAL) and play him in the NHL or play him in junior. Hell Romanov has no real competition on the left side for a spot on Montreal, he will slot behind Mete unless they make a play for Krug or someone similar and he will have a larger adjustment from Russia than Californa.
Doing a redraft within 2 years seems like a make work project so anyone using these for a serious argument probably has other….. concerns and issues. Hughes and Dahlin are clearly better (at least at this point in time although that is a lot to catch up on) but the rest I see as a wash so taking John Carlson 2.0 doesnt seem like a bad thing.
Nice article LT. Agreed that Holland acquired Athanasiou with the intention of giving him a legit chance to fit in the Oilers top 6.
One thing I was curious about though. You mentioned “Athanasiou has a slightly stronger reputation as a two-way talent” (vs Burakovsky). I wasn’t aware of any two-way reputation for AA, aside from him having the worst +/- in the league in this season. Is that just relative to Burakovsky? Does/did AA have a positive reputation as a responsible player that I’m not aware of? (this last one is really what I’m curious about I guess).
I’ll bet you $100 a point. Bouchard vs Rafferty over the next 5 years
New for The Athletic: How can Andreas Athanasiou — Ken Holland’s big bet — help the Oilers?
https://theathletic.com/1807211/2020/05/12/lowetide-how-can-andreas-athanasiou-ken-hollands-big-bet-help-the-oilers/
Also, in their analysis of the 2018 draft, Bouchard effectively dropped just one spot, which is hardly significant. The 11 “NHL” players were arbitrarily ranked 1-11, with two players jumping ahead of Bouchard (Denisenko, Romanov) and one falling behind him (Kravtsov). Two minus one equals one. One place. Hardly significant.
I don’t see how that’s possible. Bouchard was taken in the 2018 draft.
What covid stats am I ignorant about? In Canada in 2018, about 900 people under 44 died in motor vehicle collisions. Another 5,000 suffered serious injuries.
Great stuff, guys. ?
Even if there are 20 times the number of reported cases (70,000 in Canada), that is still only 1,400,000 people. That means 96% of the Canadian population has not been exposed. No way does herd immunity happen quickly unless all social distancing measures are eliminated. I don’t see that happening.
Pretty damn high I imagine. His draft year should have been 2010. Despite his late start in the NHL he’d be #6 in scoring from that draft year.
I was more referring to Rafferty having done nothing at the NHL level yet than his not being drafted (here we are after his theoretical draft +7 season). Bouchard has scored an NHL goal at least, through draft +2. And he spent time on an NHL roster this season.
Dwarfed. ?
The minute Khaira signed he would be thrown out of tier 2 to avoid that scenario.
Ha. Common sense includes looking at the serology samples down with much larger sample sizes in areas where there was more disease. Hard to work with frequencies around your serology test error rates.
Not very motivational results, but those 1/2-1% IFR estimates work out to 10-20 infections for every confirmed case. That would include asymptomatic cases, ignored mild symptoms, and mild cases where testing was never provided. Cheers.
I’m not saying the Brogran Rafferty can’t have an NHL career – I’m saying that his likelihood to have one, his potential, his offensive ceiling, his value are all dwarfed by Evan Bouchard, materially dwarfed.
That’s my opinion and I think its highly defensible.
I always enjoy your posts.
The Hockey News 2014 redraft: not even close to the original draft order.
The Hockey News 2019 redraft: not much change from the original draft order.
My take away: the 2019 redraft will not look very accurate five years from now; a trivial drop in Bouchard’s ranking is meaningless at this point.
I wonder where Artemi Panarin would go in a 2012 re-draft?
You’re like a race horse with blinders on.
You can only see one way to an an NHL career.
Brian Rafalski was never ranked, never drafted and didn’t begin his NHL career until he was 26.
He ended up playing 833 NHL games, won three Stanley Cups and was an all star.
This after four years in NCAA just like Rafferty.
Luckily, the meat heads in the game who could only see the draft and develop model in the traditional way are pretty much gone from the game and smart teams are exploiting a long standing market inefficiency.
There are dozens of other examples.
I must have missed where The Hockey News made a prediction on Rafferty’s future production……
Where has Rafferty been ranked on lists of the top prospects outside the NHL? I must have missed him in those lists….
That would be my assessment as well.
The league proposal will be present to the players association tomorrow – that’s a pretty big hurdle – hopefully they jump it!
To be, if he proves to be real succession for our incumbent 1LD or 2LD, that is fine value for 8th overall.
Darnell Nurse himself was picked in that range and I think that is fine value there.
YMMV.
Holland was drafting Klefbom’s replacement, to insure continuity of a contending level defense, when an injury-prone 30-year old Klefbom looks for a big retirement contract.
A smooth transition from Klefbom Nurse to Broberg Nurse in three years on the left side of the D.
McDavid and Draisaitl and a solid D means consistent contending. Wingers are easy to find. D much harder.
In public, he said “I’m thinking playoffs” when he was hired, he said “I’m not talking rebuild. I’m talking about we’ve got to compete for a playoff spot” on the eve of the season, on Dec. 20th, he said “My goal was for us to be competitive and in the playoff hunt in March and we started well.”, on Jan. 6, he said “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now” and “I believe the window to try to be in the playoffs is now. We’re in the race.”
All true but I don’t know of one single GM or HC who would say anything different in the same situation. As far as I know this is standard new hire commentary. That’s all.
“And at the trade deadline, he gave up picks to secure NHL players.”
Agreed. But that doesn’t say anything about his expectations going into the draft last summer which is what the Broberg pick was about. The team did really well this year. I think better than Holland expected. You think he expected the team to do this well. But the additions at the deadline were based upon what they did as opposed to anything else I would think.
The stuff he was putting out for public consumption follows a pattern. It’s the pattern of a GM who expects his team to compete now, not later. He wasn’t talking up how bad a situation he inherited and how long it’ll take him to sort it out. He could’ve but he didn’t.
“We may have different experience but not sure we have different information. My experience is that you can’t orchestrate a turnaround by talking out of the side of your mouth to the folks who have to see the turnaround through.”
Again. Every GM does this. Or at least every successful GM does this. GM’s have two jobs. To put a winning team together and to put bums in the seats for his owner so he can make money. Presenting a positive outlook is part of both of those jobs imo.
“You followed your shotgun comment with “That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.” in your original post. Which suggest you see a shotgun approach as being inconsistent with a plan to win near term. Otoh, your follow up comment says that a shotgun approach can “hit enough targets”. Which is what I was getting at. That you could do what Holland did and still expect to contend. You seem to be thinking contending is contending for the Cup. I believe Holland felt contending meant contending for a playoff spot. And he took steps that in his mind would ensure his team would do just that. The team had league best options at forward and too few options at forward, no natural 1D or even an offensive threat at D, and hot and cold tandem goaltending. So, yeah, tough to compete for the Cup unless some of that gets fixed up. Too bad the season ended, because Holland’s trade deadline deals brought in some very interesting players that could’ve addressed the team’s forward depth problems. We’ll never know.”
You are correct. I see “contending” as for the Cup rather than for a playoff first round exit. The “shotgun” comment was not meant in a pejorative way. He did exactly the right thing imo. He had holes everywhere in the bottom six – at least – and so rather than using one bullet to target a particular spot – as many here wanted in the form of a top 6 winger – he sprayed his ammunition like a shotgun does so that he could hit many more targets hoping some of them would work. And they did. Just like he wanted. But a GM of a contending team doesn’t do that because a contending team doesn’t have a bunch of holes in the lineup. He takes aim at one or maybe two players. He uses a rifle rather than a shotgun approach with a narrower focus.
“I meant that Holland hired a coach who led two successful turnarounds. PC hired a coach who had only coached (either as an assistant or as HC) flagship franchises, never a struggling one. You’ve cited your own experience in these situations. I’m assuming you believe experience matters. I do too.
Hiring Tippett (and giving him a short leash 3 year contract) is the kind of move you make when you want to contend now, not 3-4 years from now. And, yeah, I think hiring Tippett guaranteed the team would contend for the playoffs: success if you will. The last two coaches were net negatives for this team; results under them were worse than what they should have reasonably been.”
Fair enough and as I said I really liked the Tippett hire the moment I heard of it. I just think there were a lot of holes in the top 12 core positions and that filling more than two of those holes in any one season is usually as much as can be hoped for. Many teams don’t move forward by even one core position per season. This is why I find it remarkable that a) the goalies worked reasonably well b) three kids from Bakersfield cam in and performed at a high level, c) the shotgun fixed the PK and fourth line pretty well d) chemistry with Nuge-Leon-Yamomoto was almost instantaneous. It’s not surprising to me that some of these things worked. It is surprising to me that they all did.
“Holland points to this when he says “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now”. Because, yeah, that’s RE when you have CMD. Tippett isn’t a negative for this team. He’s coached struggling teams that had barely enough talent to compete. He seems to prefer building up his players; a favorite quote of his is put players in a position where they can succeed, another is the lovely you have to find ways to stay in a game. He seems direct, sincere, and plain spoken. And he’s been out of the league two years. A brush with coaching mortality as it were. He shows up hungry and the contract makes sure he stays hungry. Holland removed a negative and brought in a positive. More than enough to have the team contend.”
Totally agree. The coaching has been a joy to watch.
“(The opportunity knocking bit was after the Persson injury in TC.)”
My mistake. Old memory. I knew it was the result of an injury and thought it was Larsson’s.
I’m not saying Wesley went full Steve Smith there, but he went full Steve Smith there.
Worse actually, as he took two cracks at his own net.
I wonder where Rafferty would go in a… hmm… 2013 re-draft?
Thank you, sir. Does seem strong.
Tier 2 has a well-established relationship with the NCAA and their scholarship program.
This seems to imply that if say Khaira, or anyone from Tier 2, had signed a contract after being drafted, all of those scholarships (and they are numerous, with NCAA schools dependent on that pipeline) would disappear in a puff of “logic”. Forever and ever.
Sure I do…but it will be close.
In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.
It isn’t just me.
MLB planning to re-open July 4 weekend.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/11/us/mlb-season-july-trnd/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
Sure, players take risks to play. Definitely a hyperbolic statement though and pretty bold if you’re acknowledging not much about Covid is known with certainty.
That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.
I posted this a few days ago.
How about an Oilers 28-man roster for the remainder of this season, if they return? Seems like a reasonable guess on how the season/playoffs might roll out. (or maybe 30?)
Athanasiou-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Ennis-Sheahan-Archibald
Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
Nygard-Haas-Russell
Benson-Granlund
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Larsson
Jones-Green
Russell-Benning
Lagesson-Bouchard
Koskinen-Smith
Skinner
That’s 30. Would be tough to pare it down to 28 actually.
He’s already stated that he wouldn’t trade Rafferty straight up for any of Bouchard, Klefbom or Bear.
Extrapolate from that what you will.
Regular testing and/or quarantine of the player pool could keep the players safer than the rest of us.
You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.
I hear you.
He’ll be proven correct in the end.
The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.
It’s common sense.
He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.
Good evening friends.
Yeah, agreed. McDavid will end up being the highest paid player in the league for a decade straight when its all said and done and needs to deliver like Crosby has in this regard with respect to shit wingers. Or, will Petrilangelo eclipse McDavid in salary?
I tad. Ya think. Man, what an obvious ignorance of the stats on COVID-19.
If both have the potential to be second pairing D who put up points…there you go.
I know you think he’s the next Bobby Orr..but he isn’t.
Can you imagine? 3-4 STILL? This is then EIGHT years after McDavid was drafted (maybe 7 but STILL) until the Oilers will finally be considered contenders by their GM. Incredible, really, when you think hard about it. Almost like thinking that the Big Bang or God are anything but absurd.
I agree that d-men generally hit their prime around 25-26 and there is nothing wrong with adding a player that’s a bit older.
At the same time, you are a person that likes to say “good d-men show themselves early” so……
Given d-men hit their prime at 25-26, its even MORE impressive what Bouchard did at 20 – just wow.
LT sees Bouchard’s potential as a 2nd pairing PP guy but, in the same article, Willis sees him as a top pairing – interesting choice of which option to present.
Of course, noone projects Rafferty to have anywhere near the ceiling of Bouchard as an NHL player or as an offensive producer. Well, maybe one person does.
Klefbom and Nurse are irreplaceable for two more full seasons. Arguably Nurse for longer, because he brings some unique capabilities.
The Nurse haters came out of lockdown today.
There is no way a contact sport can be played in a way to make the players “as safe as the rest of us”. Impossible. Even with those wacky ideas circulating today.
Sounds like the players will reject as “revenue sharing is essentially a salary cap”
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1259957402377617418
Munny,
Straight from the NCAA college hockey page:
“Because the CHL includes players who have signed professional contracts, the NCAA considers it a professional league. Therefore, players who have played a game – even an exhibition game – in the CHL are deemed ineligible for NCAA competition.”
There you go. One signed player (overage or otherwise) and the whole CHL is a no go zone. This is what I was emphasizing. I’ve heard the stipend thing could be fixed more easily.
update: This type of language seems extreme. But it has roots that go all the way back to Eastern Canada’s “Hockey Wars”. Anyone with a copy of “A Great Game: The Forgotten Leafs and the Rise of Professional Hockey” might be able to give us the exact history.
There is a benefit of drafting players going the college route – much more runway to sign them and, as you mention, they can be developed for longer outside of being signed and playing pro hockey.
Everything you didn’t want know about a Brogan Rafferty.
https://canucksarmy.com/2020/05/11/raff/
He was a bit better on Spittin’ Chiclets last week.
It matters to the league and they have stated that from the very beginning.
Of course, positions and stances change over time with circumstances but, at the very beginning, the league was very clear that having a full and complete 82 game schedule was paramount over finishing the current season.
They may have softened on that position with the potential that 82 games with fans may not be a realistic option but that would be the goal.
Of course, this is revenue driven and that makes sense.
I care about how many games. Of course, if they can only do 48 for safety reasons then I will accept that but I would prefer as much of a “normal season” as possible and the league would as well (me as a fan and the league for revenues – which effects the game, contract, the CBA, the cap, etc.).