Don’t Think Twice, It’s All Wright

by Lowetide

In the days when the Edmonton Oilers were trying to decide on the No. 1 overall selection in the 2012 draft (the final four were Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Mikhail Grigorenko and Griffin Reinhart), the Columbus Blue Jackets were also finalizing their list in anticipation of their options at the No. 2 overall position. It was Tyler Wright’s first year as director of amateur scouting for the Blue Jackets, a job he would hold for the 2012 and 2013 drafts before moving on to the Detroit Red Wings in time to impact the DRW 2014 draft. What is the track record of scouting director Tyler Wright?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

BLUE JACKETS 2012 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 2 overall: LD Ryan Murray (347 NHL games)
  • Round 2, No. 31 overall: G Oscar Dansk (5 NHL games)
  • Round 3, No. 62 overall: G Joonas Korpisalo (127 NHL games)
  • Round 4, No. 95 overall: RW Josh Anderson (267 NHL games)
  • Round 6, No. 152 overall: RW Daniel Zaar
  • Round 7, No. 182 overall: LD Gianluca Curcuruto

Wright’s first draft was disappointing early, as Ryan Murray was expected to be a cornerstone piece of the CBJ blue line. He is now six years in to his NHL career, and has played more than 60 games once. Puck IQ has him facing 30 percent or more elites in three of his six seasons, so he’s faced quality often when healthy. Joonas Korpisalo has been in the NHL for five years now and posted a .911SP in 37 games during 2019-20. He’s an actual NHL goalie. Josh Anderson is the jewel of this draft for Columbus, averaging 20 goals per 82 games and playing some big minutes against elites according to Puck IQ. As with Murray injuries are an issue, but Anderson gives the first Wright draft a big push. Grade: C+

BLUE JACKETS 2013 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 14 overall LC Alex Wennberg (415)
  • Round 1, No. 19 overall LW Kerby Rychel (43)
  • Round 1, No. 27 overall LC Marko Dano (141)
  • Round 2, No. 50 overall LD Dylan Heatherington (11)
  • Round 3, No. 89 overall RW Oliver Bjorkstrand (246)
  • Round 4, No. 105 overall RC Nick Moutrey
  • Round 6, No. 165 overall RW Markus Soberg
  • Round 7, No. 195 overall RW Peter Quenneville

This reminds me a little of Edmonton’s 2007 draft but the CBJ got some nice value later. Alex Wennberg averages 40 points per 82 games and has faced elites 30 percent or more in four of his six seasons. He doesn’t post enough offense to play a future role but it useful. Not what you’re hoping for at No. 14 overall. Kerby Rychel, Marko Dano and Dillon Heatherington peaked shy of NHL regular status. Oliver Bjorkstrand proved to be quality, the last three seasons he’s performing better relative to his teammates against elites. Per 82 games, he averages 22 goals and 44 points. Disappointing draft but Bjorkstrand was a helluva find. Grade: D.

DETROIT 2014 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 15 overall LC Dylan Larkin (389)
  • Round 3, No. 63 overall LC Dominic Turgeon (9)
  • Round 4, No. 106 overall LC Christopher Ehn (114)
  • Round 5, No. 136 overall G Chase Perry
  • Round 6, No. 166 overall LW Julius Vahatalo
  • Round 7, No. 196 overall LW Axel Holmstrom
  • Round 7, No. 201 overall LW Alexander Kadeykin

This draft went according to plan, save for the fact Dylan Larkin (23-33-56 per 82 games and impressive numbers against elites via Puck IQ) blossomed into a franchise cornerstone. Christopher Ehn doesn’t score much and he is getting caved in possession. I don’t think he’ll have a long NHL career unless he learns to score a little more and find better linemates. I give this draft a good grade because the only surprise is a very positive one. Grade: B.

DETROIT 2015 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 19 overall RW Evgeny Svechnikov (20 NHL games)
  • Round 3, No. 73 overall RD Vili Saarijarvi
  • Round 4, No. 110 overall G Joren Van Pottelberghe
  • Round 5, No. 140 overall LC Chase Pearson
  • Round 6, No. 170 overall RD Patrick Holway
  • Round 7, No. 200 overall LW Adam Marsh

This was a very poor draft, made doubly so because there were impressive names available into the sixth round. I liked Evgeny Svechnikov (had him top 10) but this draft hurt the franchise. Chase Pearson may develop but he can’t save the draft class. Grade: F.

DETROIT 2016 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 20 overall LD Dennis Cholowski (88 NHL games)
  • Round 2, No. 46 overall RW Givani Smith (21 NHL games)
  • Round 2, No. 53 overall RD Filip Hronek (111 NHL games)
  • Round 4, No. 107 overall LD Alfons Malmstrom
  • Round 5, No. 137 overall RD Jordan Sambrook
  • Round 6, No. 167 overall G Filip Larsson
  • Round 7, No. 197 overall LW Mattias Elfstrom

I will connect Cholowski and Ryan Murray at the end of this piece but wanted to stick a pin in the idea for safe keeping. Dennis Cholowski came from the BCHL, fine skater, smart player. Two years in he’s playing elites less than 25 percent of the time. He’s building an Alex Wennberg resume but we’re still fairly early days. On the other hand, Filip Hronek appears to be a long home run. He averages 10-30-40 per 82 games and has faced elites 39-40 percent of his ice time through two season. He improved year over year in that area against elites in DFF Rel. Grade B-.

DETROIT 2017 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 9 overall LW Michael Rasmussen (62 NHL games)
  • Round 2, No. 38 overall RD Gustav Lindstrom (16 NHL games)
  • Round 3, No. 71 overall LD Kasper Kotkansalo
  • Round 3, No. 79 overall RW Lane Zablocki
  • Round 3, No. 83 overall LC Zachary Gallant
  • Round 3, No. 88 overall G Keith Petruzzelli
  • Round 4, No. 100 overall LD Malte Setkov
  • Round 5, No. 131 overall RD Cole Fraser
  • Round 6, No. 162 overall RC Jack Adams
  • Round 6, No. 164 overall RD Reilly Webb
  • Round 7, No. 193 overall LC Brady Gilmour

Michael Rasmussen was chosen too high but may have an NHL career. Gustav Lindstrom is interesting and just getting started, but has made his NHL debut. Keith Petruzzelli is tracking as a worthwhile signing and Kasper Kotkansalo and Jack Adams may get contracts, too. There’s too much chum in the third round, reminds me a little of Edmonton’s 2016 third round. Tough to make a strong call yet. Grade: C-

DETROIT 2018 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 6 overall RW Filip Zadina (37 games)
  • Round 1, No. 30 overall LC Joe Veleno
  • Round 2, No. 33 overall RW Jonatan Berggren
  • Round 2, No. 36 overall LD Jared McIsaac
  • Round 3, No. 67 overall RD Alec Regula
  • Round 3, No. 81 overall RD Seth Barton
  • Round 3, No. 84 overall G Jesper Eliasson
  • Round 4, No. 98 overall RW Ryan O’Reilly
  • Round 6, No. 160 overall G Victor Brattstrom
  • Round 7, No. 191 overall LC Otto Kivenmaki

I think this draft could become one Detroit fans remember a long time. Filip Zadina is poised to emerge as a 20-goal winger as soon as next year, with Joe Veleno progressing well in the minors (he was 19 for much of the season). Jonatan Berggren is a terrific prospect, aggressive and skilled. Jared McIsaac and Alec Regula are not similar rearguards but both are progressing. That’s a ton of talent for one year, all in the first three rounds. Grade: A.

DETROIT 2019 DRAFT

  • Round 1, No. 6 overall RD Moritz Seider
  • Round 2, No. 35 overall RD Antti Tuomisto
  • Round 2, No. 54 overall LW Robert Mastrosimone
  • Round 2, No. 60 overall LD Albert Johansson
  • Round 3, No. 66 overall LW Albin Grewe
  • Round 4, No. 97 overall RC Ethan Phillips
  • Round 5, No. 128 overall LD Cooper Moore
  • Round 6, No. 159 overall LW Elmer Soderblom
  • Round 6, No. 177 overall RD Gustav Berglund
  • Round 7, No. 190 overall LW Kirill Tyutyayev
  • Round 7, No. 191 overall G Carter Gylander

Moritz Seider adjusted quickly and showed impressive potential as a teenager in the AHL. Antti Tuomisto had a big year in Jr. Sm-Liiga he’ll be a player to follow in 2020-21 (University of Denver). Robert Mastrosimone is a scoring winger who may have enough offense to make the NHL, Albert Johansson is a fairly complete defender developing well. Albin Grewe is a physical winger with skill. It’s an uneven list but the first-round pick could be outstanding. Grade: Too soon to know

TRENDS

So, Wright has a couple of ‘tells’, I mentioned the Murray-Cholowski picks as matching to my mind. Good players but drafted too high based on what they’ll bring and more defensive in nature. Spending first rounders on skill is wise.

On the other hand, another Wright tell is some outstanding value outside the first round. Josh Anderson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Filip Hronek are tremendous value picks. The early first round picks were disappointing, but Larkin, Zadina, Veleno and Seider should give Detroit many good seasons.

CONCERNS

For me, the Oilers since 2015 have been trying to get value in every selection (I remain bewildered by 2014’s back half of the draft). In those five years, discounting the gift of McDavid, the scouts have found value and have a nice pipeline of talent (specifically on defense).

Wright’s positives in my opinion are Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek and the last two draft classes. Is that better than the Edmonton group represented by Bob Green’s track record (posted yesterday)?

I think the fairest thing we can say is that bringing Wright in to replace Green (and Gretzky) is not a black and white win. It’s more shades of grey, and fans have a right to be concerned.

Wright has a lot to prove and the Oilers own their first, fifth, sixth and seventh, while also having a claim to their own third. I expect Ken Holland will be active in the trade market leading up to the draft.

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ashley

oilersfan:
Harpers Hair,

Given how hot it gets in Vegas how will the ice be in July and August?

Also, if One hub city is in USA and one in Canada won’t they have to have a 2 week quarantine in the middle? Why not do both Edmonton and Vancouver? ThAt makes more sense than stopping play for two weeks in the middle of the playofffs.

Also add me to Bruce McCurdy and Kurt Leavins complaining that the oilers have to earn in and could be out in 2 games if it’s a best of 3.

Man that game we were beating Dallas 4-1 at home and lost in overtime basically cost us having to earn in. Who would have thought ?!?

I just watched the highlights:

https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/dal-vs-edm/2019/11/16/2019020301#game=2019020301,game_state=final

That would be a good game for the Oilers – specifically McDavid and Draisaitl – to review before playoffs. It’s tough to outscore that many 10 bell chances for the opposition.

4 goals should win a hockey game.

hunter1909

15 seconds left, down 3-1 Flyers want to pull their goalie against Gretzky, Coffey, and Messier lol

hunter1909

The last 10 minutes of the 1987 Finals could be sent into outer space to teach aliens(unless they’re already here) what hockey is all about.

Check out the Oilers line of McSorely MacTavish and Hunter it’s the hockey equivalent of Tom Sawyer’s Picket fence.

kelvjn

Draft and develop.

It’s not only about finding 18 years old that could play some day, it is also finding a player who the GM and coach want to play.

There are few Gretzkys, McDavids, Prongers etc out there who will play no matter who’s in charge. There is also only so many sheltered minutes you can try to bring a rookie along (barring injuries bumping every one higher on depth chart).

It’s not just how good the scout is, it is also how the org be able to manage development given what they have. A Marcobello got 100+ game is NHL through sheer work ethics and nothing else only on a team where the coach tries to instill work ethics.

In a way, getting a familiar head of scout aligns the scout with the GM. If only the coach also on board…

hunter1909

Given the post Sather generation of darkness I have found the last 10 minutes of the 1987 game 7 Finals between Edmonton and Philadelphia to be my all time fave hockey clip to watch.

Why? No whistles even when players get half killed, Oilers utterly in control the whole time and the greatest goal ever by Anderson to make the game out of reach.

hunter1909

Ha ha thanks Lowetide I was just returning to delete that when…

hunter1909

While we’re still talking hockey…

Chicago can well upset McDavid, and the 2020 preliminary round is going to be a nightmare for any number of teams. Dallas a probably 2nd round prospect makes up for everything, while Calgary are gonzo playing in the Blues bracket lol

Also the pesky Avs will be gone far away until only playoff success brings them into the frame so it’s all good.

JimmyV1965

Nix: Lol. “Heres my thoughts but also nyah nyah I’ll not be interacting with yours.” Thats a four year olds move, my guy. I admire your politeness in its phrasing so theres that.

Of course there should be sympathy for the elderly or anyone affected by this novel virus but im stunned at the lack of even a willingness in many circles to discuss the huge rather obvious elephant in the room. People are hungry, broke, and unemployed by the millions for something that looks quite a bit shy of a world killing bug now doesnt it? People see that and are supposed to not have or worse yet state an opinion? Wheres the sympathy for families (including my own) that dont know where food or rent is coming from? How about losing a business you invested twenty damned years in, your whole adult working life, overnight in an area that has a miniscule number of cases? “But why cant you just lock yourself in a room indefinitely and just play xbox like the rest of us always have bro?” What a ridiculous stance from folks who clearly dont sweat in the sun to feed their children. This whole thing stinks to high heaven and no one should have the authority to muzzle anyone.

I sympathize with your situation. Truly, truly awful. This lockdown will be absolutely devastating for many people and we won’t see the real impact for a few months yet. I hope we can all get through this and enjoy better days ahead.

Even in my own business, revenue in April was one third what it was last year. I’ll weather the storm though and muddle through. Many others won’t.

I heard on the radio shortly after lockdown was imposed about a man who bought a business one week earlier. He hadn’t even made his first loan payment. Now he has no revenue coming in and all his fixed costs to deal with. Devastating.

On the other hand, governments were making decisions in an information vacuum. They didn’t know how bad the virus would be and what the consequences would be. IMO the lockdown was the prudent thing to do because the projections at the time were very dire. For the future, I do think we need to return to normal as soon as prudently possible.

I truly hope you and your family can survive this and enjoy brighter days ahead. And I agree, the last thing we should do is muffle the voices of people with contrary positions.

N64

Nix: Lol. “Heres my thoughts but also nyah nyah I’ll not be interacting with yours.” Thats a four year olds move, my guy. I admire your politeness in its phrasing so theres that.

Of course there should be sympathy for the elderly or anyone affected by this novel virus but im stunned at the lack of even a willingness in many circles to discuss the huge rather obvious elephant in the room. People are hungry, broke, and unemployed by the millions for something that looks quite a bit shy of a world killing bug now doesnt it? People see that and are supposed to not have or worse yet state an opinion? Wheres the sympathy for families (including my own) that dont know where food or rent is coming from? How about losing a business you invested twenty damned years in, your whole adult working life, overnight in an area that has a miniscule number of cases? “But why cant you just lock yourself in a room indefinitely and just play xbox like the rest of us always have bro?” What a ridiculous stance from folks who clearly dont sweat in the sun to feed their children. This whole thing stinks to high heaven and no one should have the authority to muzzle anyone.

Until people at least examine the possibility that most of the social/economic contraction was independent of gov’t policy and the corollary that expansion will not occur until the reasons for the contraction are resolved at the personal level, I suspect that pro and con for policy X or Y or laissez faire will keep talking past each other.

Economic interactions are the other side of social interactions. Govt’s can try to avoid hitting pandemic walls and economic walls. But everywhere disease spread/death and social/economic activity is a feedback loop that cares about no one’s best intentions or wishcasting.

N64

jtblack:
defmn,

“7 deaths in Saskatchewan & 7 deaths in Manitoba compared to 134 in Alberta and 155 in B.C. I don’t think you can explain discrepancies like that through government intervention.”

Factor in International Airports, Population Density and Public Transit.

Good comparisons for Sask and Manitoba are Wyoming and Montana.

If anything I was arguing that density is destiny. Specifically that in dense areas policies to ONLY protect the vulnerable will not even achieve that.

Non-govt aspects are way more important than the focus of most news and discussion which overemphasis gov’t influence on the economy. See Sweden’s contraction. See phone mobility and biz revenue dropping before closures or lockdowns. People reduce social economy faster than gov’ts ask and resume slower than govt’s encourage.

And when we get to gov’t policy the pre-covid policies also aren’t stressed enough. Robust public health tracking before epidemics and not flying blind the first month. Not having part time workers shared across multiple long term care facilities.

Cheers.

Nix

€√¥£€^$: Logic?

“Just wondering why you make the effort to post on this site regarding this subject. I would suggest if this is the narrative that you believe, you might be better served by posting on the sites that cater to your perspective.”

I thought this board was supposed to be apolitical? Its not of course, even though I revere this place. Been seeing people post the left perspective more and more every day. Nobody says a word. The second someone challenges the SHUT THE WORLD DOWNNNN narrative then lets just hush that up and suggest folks censor themselves or better yet post elsewhere.

“I will not be responding to any of your subsequent posts.”

Lol. “Heres my thoughts but also nyah nyah I’ll not be interacting with yours.” Thats a four year olds move, my guy. I admire your politeness in its phrasing so theres that.

Of course there should be sympathy for the elderly or anyone affected by this novel virus but im stunned at the lack of even a willingness in many circles to discuss the huge rather obvious elephant in the room. People are hungry, broke, and unemployed by the millions for something that looks quite a bit shy of a world killing bug now doesnt it? People see that and are supposed to not have or worse yet state an opinion? Wheres the sympathy for families (including my own) that dont know where food or rent is coming from? How about losing a business you invested twenty damned years in, your whole adult working life, overnight in an area that has a miniscule number of cases? “But why cant you just lock yourself in a room indefinitely and just play xbox like the rest of us always have bro?” What a ridiculous stance from folks who clearly dont sweat in the sun to feed their children. This whole thing stinks to high heaven and no one should have the authority to muzzle anyone.

Georges

Wright’s skater draft record in DET (2014-2019) is less encouraging than what he managed in CBJ.

– He had 10 skater picks make it to the NHL; 13 teams had more than 10; the best was BOS with 16

– His picks have played a total of 867 games, good for 19th place; for comparison, the 15th team was NSH (1017 GP), the top team was BOS (1705 GP), and EDM sits 10th (1192)

– Only 3 have played 100 or more games so far; 14 teams have had more than 3 skaters reach that mark; BOS and ARI are tied at the top with 7 each

– His picks rank 16th on total TOI; BOS is the clear #1, its picks have played twice(!) as many minutes as DET’s

– They’ve scored 401 points, again good for 19th place; ANA is the 15th team with 477 points; and EDM is #1 with 1027 points

So, overall, his DET skater drafting record is a fair bit worse than what it was in CBJ. (I don’t know if he picked any goalies but it doesn’t look like they’ve made it close to NHL regulars.)

Mitigating factors…?

– In his first 3 drafts, his 1st round picks were 15th or higher (he took Larkin, Svechnikov, and Cholowski); his last 3 1st round picks were all top 10: Zadina seems to be a winner, seems too early to say about the other two

– But his performance outside the first round is still bottom half of the league over the entire time frame; strangely enough, he still did better than the EDM draft crew when picking outside the first round

– If you focus on the more recent drafts (say from 2016 forward, when Gretzky took the reins in EDM), he does fare better, breaking into the top 10 on some metrics; that’s encouraging

Let’s compare Wright’s record in DET with Green’s record in EDM in the years they overlap (2015 to 2019). I’ll focus on skaters who’ve made the NHL in each draft class. The first column contains a G for a Green pick and a W for a Wright pick.

Selected By, Player, Draft Pick Number, GP, Pts

2015

W, Svechnikov, 19, 20, 4

G, CMD, 1, 351, 469
G, Jones, 117, 60, 15
G, Bear, 124, 89, 25
G, Marino, 154, 56, 26

Ay caramba!! This looks like phenomenal work, and the scout in charge in EDM in 2015 should be rightly praised for identifying 3 NHL defensemen outside the top 3 rounds in a single draft. And yet, and yet, that same scout apparently saw enough in Griffin Reinhart to… No rhyme, no reason.

2016

W, Cholowski, 20, 88, 24
W, Smith, 46, 21, 3
W, Hronek, 53, 111, 54

G, JP, 4, 139, 37
G, Benson, 32, 7, 1

2017

W, Rasmussen, 9, 62, 18
W, Lindstrom, 38, 16, 1

G, Yamamoto, 22, 53, 31

2018

W, Zadina, 6, 37, 18

G, Bouchard, 10, 7, 1

I’m not sure what to make of this. I really do wonder what would’ve happened to Bear, Yamamoto, and Jones if Holland brought in someone other than Tippett. None of those guys broke through under the coach in orange or the guy PC un-retired. They all flourished (so far) under Tippett.

Green’s record looked pretty stark at the beginning of last summer. CMD and crickets. Now, after one year of Bear, Yams, and Jones under new management, Marino with a new team, JP in a new league, Green looks like a top notch talent finder. Why would Holland replace a top notch talent finder? Well, he replaced him last summer, when the results on Green’s picks were not quite top notch. And then, and then, it all turned around.

Judging by Green’s and Wright’s widely varying results, it seems to me that the Director of Amateur Scouting can only do so much, and that “only so much” may not be a lot.

jtblack

defmn,

“7 deaths in Saskatchewan & 7 deaths in Manitoba compared to 134 in Alberta and 155 in B.C. I don’t think you can explain discrepancies like that through government intervention.”

Factor in International Airports, Population Density and Public Transit.

Good comparisons for Sask and Manitoba are Wyoming and Montana.

defmn

N64: I think the undertold story everywhere is how much the human and economic costs were baked into broad human reactions ahead of gov’t responses.BC frames it nicely by saying that personal interaction in BC dropped 70% and that half of that can come back relatively painlessly in terms of covid. The less death the more room for consumer confidence.

Steadiest hand in North American was probably Dr. Henry. When she restricted mass gatherings she identified 50 as the best number for a long fight (same as Sweden) BC is still with that so far. By contrast AB went to 15 and USA 10 and Ontario to 5.

And yet stories (an photos) like this are everywhere. This one is from March 21st. So I am doubtful that there isn’t a large dollop of luck – good and bad – and unknowns in where all of this has taken hold.

7 deaths in Saskatchewan & 7 deaths in Manitoba compared to 134 in Alberta and 155 in B.C. I don’t think you can explain discrepancies like that through government intervention.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/social-distancing-vancouver-1.5505867

JimmyV1965

defmn: Yup. I just think that there is little point in blaming people for guessing wrong in the face of an unprecedented event.

There are too many anomalies regarding consequences and actions taken or not taken. Sweden has done nothing and that tale is not yet fully told. Australia has escaped almost completely and yet has a lot of traffic from China. Italy got blitzed due to a large Chinese community in Milan but many countries in Africa have large Chinese communities and are only now starting to see numbers. Vancouver and Toronto have the largest Chinese communities in Canada but have not been overwhelmed.

I just think there are a lot of things we don’t know but I do know that when stuff like this happens there is an expert for every scenario you would like to be true and the government has most of them on their payroll – and we still don’t know why it is happening the way it is.

I try not to be a Monday Morning Quarterback and I don’t think our governments have done anything worse than any other governments. But when it comes to seniors in lodges, they get a failing grade from me. They knew seniors in lodges were at extreme risk and didn’t do nearly enough to keep them safe. The small agency my wife works for was much more proactive and had a better response than what we’ve seen from the provincial and federal government. It shouldn’t work that way.

N64

defmn: I know there have been successes and failures that we can all point to but I have yet to see an explanation that accounts for what look like random results.

Timing is luck. See Seattle vs. San Jose death rates. Pre-existing seniors policies matter. Firebreaks around sensitive groups are very important, but not enough. Density is destiny unless community transmission is curtailed. Details matter.. Sending patients from long term care to hospital was safer than the reverse where possible. Then add luck and repeat.

Glovjuice

JimmyV1965: I honestly believe any senior home that escaped the devastating consequences was lucky, or better managed at the facility level. Many senior homes are run by private business and non profit agencies so the overall response would be different in each facility. Some very good. Some very bad.

My wife works for an agency that serves people with disabilities. They responded to the pandemic early and seriously. Staff wore homemade masks even while we were being told masks were useless. Each staff member could only work in one home. If a staff member worked for two different agencies they were told to pick one because they weren’t working at two. Staff were given extra hazard pay almost immediately. They had homemade masks when they couldn’t get any from the province.

This was an extremely unique response by their agency. Most other agencies didn’t respond nearly as well. The support they got from the province was laughable.

PS. I forgot to add that family visits were prohibited immediately.

Well, here we all go. Comes down to good versus bad management; as fucking always. Good management simply using their supposedly smart heads should have been able to deal with this as described above. Those that didn’t simply didn’t conduct hazard assessments (OHS), were stupid, were lazy, were greedy, were oblivious, and/or didn’t give a shit. Disgusting. Any semi smart person should have acted as described above.

OriginalPouzar

TSN
@TSN_Sports
·
7m
Foreign professional athletes will be allowed to return to the US despite travel bans.

https://twitter.com/TSN_Sports/status/1264367549673885696

meanashell11

Lowetide: I remember my Dad telling me about his sister Ethel who got polio as a young person. They were worried about her living and then walking. She never completely recovered but led a rich, long life. Married a farmer (Oscar Anderson) and they farmed near Radisson, Sk through the 70s and I believe their daughter took over the farm. I keep thinking about the strength people had in previous decades and hope we have that strength. I hope everything works out well for your wife’s Mom.

I am currently living with my kids who have all come home during this crisis. All they do is complain. “Rona is ruining my life, I can’t stand being in quarantine. etc etc etc”.

I tell them this is nothing.How would you like to be in London during the Blitz. How about being Jewish in Amsterdam in 1940. How about the Depression. My mother who grew up during the Depression would never leave leftovers on a plate. It was an insult to leave leftovers. It meant you did not like the meal.

Jebus, it’s been two months. People need to get some perspective.

N64

Ancient Oilers Fan: I have a friend who hasn’t been allowed to visit his parents in an Edmonton seniors facility since January.

/over and out. try not to introduce covid to any thread and have posted too much today.

They seemed to jump on it early here.

That’s very early. Most Edmonton reaction was after the early first and only outbreak. Kensington 37 cases.

Ancient Oilers Fan

defmn: I’m not sure that is true. In Calgary seniors facilities have been death traps while in Edmonton that is not the case. I have yet to hear an explanation that makes sense that has anything to do with government policy although it is the same government in both cases.

Alberta made moves at the provincial level before Saskatchewan or Manitoba and yet the difference in death rates is huge.

Think about the traffic into Vancouver from China and how high the potential was for the virus to be there before any government action took place and yet the death rate has been fairly minor.

I know there have been successes and failures that we can all point to but I have yet to see an explanation that accounts for what look like random results.

I have a friend who hasn’t been allowed to visit his parents in an Edmonton seniors facility since January.

They seemed to jump on it early here.

N64

defmn: There are too many anomalies regarding consequences and actions taken or not taken.

I think the undertold story everywhere is how much the human and economic costs were baked into broad human reactions ahead of gov’t responses. BC frames it nicely by saying that personal interaction in BC dropped 70% and that half of that can come back relatively painlessly in terms of covid. The less death the more room for consumer confidence.

Steadiest hand in North American was probably Dr. Henry. When she restricted mass gatherings she identified 50 as the best number for a long fight (same as Sweden) BC is still with that so far. By contrast AB went to 15 and USA 10 and Ontario to 5.

N64

Lowetide: I remember my Dad telling me about his sister Ethel who got polio as a young person. They were worried about her living and then walking. She never completely recovered but led a rich, long life. Married a farmer (Oscar Anderson) and they farmed near Radisson, Sk through the 70s and I believe their daughter took over the farm. I keep thinking about the strength people had in previous decades and hope we have that strength. I hope everything works out well for your wife’s Mom.

Amazing. Folks not that much older than me had a few classmates with polio braces. Not one in any of my schools K-12.

N64

JimmyV1965: I guess we agree then. Governments at all levels failed to do anything meaningful to protect seniors. Some facilities got lucky and some didn’t. I do think some facility managers probably responded better than others.

Yes. The most amazing sites got staff to volunteer to live on site (in some cases in RVs). Treating staff well can have huge returns.

N64

defmn: There must be 100 people get off the plane from China in Vancouver for every 10 that get off in Calgary. The virus was moving across the Pacific for at least 60-80 days before anybody in North America did anything or even thought anything had to be done and yet the numbers in Vancouver are much lower than in Calgary. I don’t think there is anything in what you said that explains that. Not to mention the low incidence in Saskatchewan. The moved slower than Alberta and I know that because I was down in Palm Springs in a complex full of people from B.C. and Alberta and Saskatchewan and we were all comparing notes before we all decided to head north.

By the time they closed all but four airports to international travel the numbers were already diverging by far more than made sense.

I know there were good decisions made and bad decisions made but most of those decisions were made long after chance and luck had set the table for what unfolded.

Was only addressing Calgary vs. Edmonton in Canada with similar policy adjustments, but a very different floor clock in terms of fast early spread.

I credit BC with better policies in place and more community awareness in place before the very early March jump in Calgary and BC.

N64

Harpers Hair: Am just watching her daily update.

Only 10 new cases today all in long term care and a prison.

Only 127 total cases on Vancouver Island.

Nice. AB has 7 more in hospital. BC has 2 more in ICU and 20 more total deaths.

~ Overall edge to the pandemic vet Henry (30.3 deaths/million deaths in BC vs. 30.6 in Alberta), but Hinshaw made good first period adjustments to keep us in the game. ~

CFIB survey has AB out front in Canada for “fully reopened” biz%, but great conditions in BC to build consumer confidence quickly with a strong reopening.

N64

Harpers Hair:
Where I live, Parksville and Qualicum Beach are the oldest communities in Canada and we have dozens of extended care homes…..not one case.

My wife manages a private senior’s care service and they immediately launched mediation measures.

The issue in Quebec and Ontario was that their spring break was earlier than here and the Quebec Premier was actually encouraging residents to go to Florida, the Caribbean and other destinations.

And of course the feds dropped the ball big time by not closing airports nor insisting on effective screening or quarantine measures until it was already too late.

Some smart lawyers could get very rich in a class action suit holding these dimwits to account.

Yep timing was huge. Only one senior home outbreak in Edmonton. Same adjustments after in Edmonton and Calgary but the higher Calgary winter vacay rates baked in more Covid before the gates were refitted.

defmn

Lowetide: I feel so bad for my wife and her siblings. Every day they wake up and make sure Mom is fine. It’s not even a big deal compared to what the world is going through, but it’s the world I’m in with my family.I wish I could do something to take that fear away.

It is a feeling of helplessness for sure. My wife’s mother is in Belgium and as JP’s post above shows they have the highest fatality rate in the world. It hovers over everything every day.

defmn

JimmyV1965: I guess we agree then. Governments at all levels failed to do anything meaningful to protect seniors. Some facilities got lucky and some didn’t. I do think some facility managers probably responded better than others.

Yup. I just think that there is little point in blaming people for guessing wrong in the face of an unprecedented event.

There are too many anomalies regarding consequences and actions taken or not taken. Sweden has done nothing and that tale is not yet fully told. Australia has escaped almost completely and yet has a lot of traffic from China. Italy got blitzed due to a large Chinese community in Milan but many countries in Africa have large Chinese communities and are only now starting to see numbers. Vancouver and Toronto have the largest Chinese communities in Canada but have not been overwhelmed.

I just think there are a lot of things we don’t know but I do know that when stuff like this happens there is an expert for every scenario you would like to be true and the government has most of them on their payroll – and we still don’t know why it is happening the way it is.

defmn

Lowetide:
My mother in law lives in a seniors dwelling in Medicine Hat, they’ve been isolated for (I believe) 10 weeks. Driving everyone nuts but they’re all hanging in.

Best wishes that that continues to be true. It is a scary time for people in senior’s facilities.

JimmyV1965

defmn: But isn’t this what I said. Nothing to do with government doing this or that. It was one company’s policy. My son told us there was a huge epidemic coming when he visited at Christmas time. I never saw any government outside of Taiwan, Vietnam and Saigon react before February. I just assume those 3 countries have better spies in China than other countries.?

You cannot convince me that the facilities in Calgary – which have had devastating losses of life – were all badly managed but that every facility in Edmonton, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were all managed perfectly because they didn’t have a lot of cases.

I know we all want there to be reasons to explain this but reason tells me that Vancouver should have been the hardest hit city in Canada with its huge Chinese population and traffic between the two countries with an incubation period of days or weeks before anybody knew enough to do anything. And yet it wasn’t.

There are pieces missing regarding how all of this has played out with different experts giving different advice to politicians.

I guess we agree then. Governments at all levels failed to do anything meaningful to protect seniors. Some facilities got lucky and some didn’t. I do think some facility managers probably responded better than others.

defmn

N64: Timing is huge. San Jose, Seattle, BC. Alberta did initial gathering restrictions plus minus on day.

E.g.The Seattle fire emerged in Kirklandas a cluster of death whereas the San Jose surfaced at the same time with a much smaller fire. Same time but much later relative to quiet spread

First long term care case home outbreak in Edmonton and Calgary went very badly. Both made the same changes but they were early enough for Edmonton whereas Calgary had a lot of senior care outbreaks under way by then. BC did even better due to fewer multiple site staff and quick elimination of that.

There must be 100 people get off the plane from China in Vancouver for every 10 that get off in Calgary. The virus was moving across the Pacific for at least 60-80 days before anybody in North America did anything or even thought anything had to be done and yet the numbers in Vancouver are much lower than in Calgary. I don’t think there is anything in what you said that explains that. Not to mention the low incidence in Saskatchewan. The moved slower than Alberta and I know that because I was down in Palm Springs in a complex full of people from B.C. and Alberta and Saskatchewan and we were all comparing notes before we all decided to head north.

By the time they closed all but four airports to international travel the numbers were already diverging by far more than made sense.

I know there were good decisions made and bad decisions made but most of those decisions were made long after chance and luck had set the table for what unfolded.

defmn

JimmyV1965: I honestly believe any senior home that escaped the devastating consequences was lucky, or better managed at the facility level. Many senior homes are run by private business and non profit agencies so the overall response would be different in each facility. Some very good. Some very bad.

My wife works for an agency that serves people with disabilities. They responded to the pandemic early and seriously. Staff wore homemade masks even while we were being told masks were useless. Each staff member could only work in one home. If a staff member worked for two different agencies they were told to pick one because they weren’t working at two. Staff were given extra hazard pay almost immediately. They had homemade masks when they couldn’t get any from the province.

This was an extremely unique response by their agency. Most other agencies didn’t respond nearly as well. The support they got from the province was laughable.

PS. I forgot to add that family visits were prohibited immediately.

But isn’t this what I said. Nothing to do with government doing this or that. It was one company’s policy. My son told us there was a huge epidemic coming when he visited at Christmas time. I never saw any government outside of Taiwan, Vietnam and Saigon react before February. I just assume those 3 countries have better spies in China than other countries. 😉

You cannot convince me that the facilities in Calgary – which have had devastating losses of life – were all badly managed but that every facility in Edmonton, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were all managed perfectly because they didn’t have a lot of cases.

I know we all want there to be reasons to explain this but reason tells me that Vancouver should have been the hardest hit city in Canada with its huge Chinese population and traffic between the two countries with an incubation period of days or weeks before anybody knew enough to do anything. And yet it wasn’t.

There are pieces missing regarding how all of this has played out with different experts giving different advice to politicians.

N64

defmn: In Calgary seniors facilities have been death traps while in Edmonton that is not the case. I have yet to hear an explanation that makes sense that has anything to do with government policy although it is the same government in both cases

Timing is huge. San Jose, Seattle, BC. Alberta did initial gathering restrictions plus minus on day.

E.g.The Seattle fire emerged in Kirkland as a cluster of death whereas the San Jose surfaced at the same time with a much smaller fire. Same time but much later relative to quiet spread

First long term care case home outbreak in Edmonton and Calgary went very badly. Both made the same changes but they were early enough for Edmonton whereas Calgary had a lot of senior care outbreaks under way by then. BC did even better due to fewer multiple site staff and quick elimination of that.

But these are smaller community circulation examples. Denser areas of community circulation seemed to very poorly week after week in senior care. Bigger fires are harder to firebreak.

Harpers Hair

Where I live, Parksville and Qualicum Beach are the oldest communities in Canada and we have dozens of extended care homes…..not one case.

My wife manages a private senior’s care service and they immediately launched mediation measures.

The issue in Quebec and Ontario was that their spring break was earlier than here and the Quebec Premier was actually encouraging residents to go to Florida, the Caribbean and other destinations.

And of course the feds dropped the ball big time by not closing airports nor insisting on effective screening or quarantine measures until it was already too late.

Some smart lawyers could get very rich in a class action suit holding these dimwits to account.

maudite

Add into this that a lot of the tfw labour is grossly under protected with regards to how exploited their housing often ends up being.

How many conservative reps is it now that have been outed as running slum landlord style company store accommodations since the federal immigration minister made massive changes allowing for this to really blossom?

The story of why stuff like cargil outbreak occurred I hope isnt lost in all the noise. Essentially close to same as human trafficking game for prostitution in some sad Ways. No real protection and one wrong move from getting disappeared with zero options available.

JimmyV1965: I honestly believe any senior home that escaped the devastating consequences was lucky, or better managed at the facility level. Many senior homes are run by private business and non profit agencies so the overall response would be different in each facility. Some very good. Some very bad.

My wife works for an agency that serves people with disabilities. They responded to the pandemic early and seriously. Staff wore homemade masks even while we were being told masks were useless. Each staff member could only work in one home. If a staff member worked for two different agencies they were told to pick one because they weren’t working at two. Staff were given extra hazard pay almost immediately. They had homemade masks when they couldn’t get any from the province.

This was an extremely unique response by their agency. Most other agencies didn’t respond nearly as well. The support they got from the province was laughable.

PS. I forgot to add that family visits were prohibited immediately.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Heat in Vegas may be a factor but I’m sure its something they are able to deal with and mitigate – not having 20K fans in the stands should be a huge help.

Of course, in the structuring, they have been dealing with government officials and, from accounts, the travel over the border when the 2 hubs combine in to one (if they are in seperate countries) won’t be an issue.

Yes, Canada has mandatory 14-day quarantine but, if bubble from the US comes and goes directly to the “Ice District bubble” – being in the Ice District bubble will likely be seen as quarantine – if its done properly.

It’s a dry heat!

I know that sounds silly at 40 degrees but it’s actually important in ice making as high humidity is a bigger problem than heat.

Vegas also has tremendous expertise in cooling cavernous structures.

Ice won’t be an issue.

JimmyV1965

defmn: I’m not sure that is true. In Calgary seniors facilities have been death traps while in Edmonton that is not the case. I have yet to hear an explanation that makes sense that has anything to do with government policy although it is the same government in both cases.

Alberta made moves at the provincial level before Saskatchewan or Manitoba and yet the difference in death rates is huge.

Think about the traffic into Vancouver from China and how high the potential was for the virus to be there before any government action took place and yet the death rate has been fairly minor.

I know there have been successes and failures that we can all point to but I have yet to see an explanation that accounts for what look like random results.

I honestly believe any senior home that escaped the devastating consequences was lucky, or better managed at the facility level. Many senior homes are run by private business and non profit agencies so the overall response would be different in each facility. Some very good. Some very bad.

My wife works for an agency that serves people with disabilities. They responded to the pandemic early and seriously. Staff wore homemade masks even while we were being told masks were useless. Each staff member could only work in one home. If a staff member worked for two different agencies they were told to pick one because they weren’t working at two. Staff were given extra hazard pay almost immediately. They had homemade masks when they couldn’t get any from the province.

This was an extremely unique response by their agency. Most other agencies didn’t respond nearly as well. The support they got from the province was laughable.

PS. I forgot to add that family visits were prohibited immediately.

pts2pndr

€√¥£€^$: I don’t believe this happened anywhere in Canada, but I may be wrong, as I didn’t pay very close attention to what happened in Quebec and Ontario.

Unfortunately the majority of the elderly population are often forgotten at the best of times, except perhaps by those who have targeted them as sources of income.It is a sad commentary on the state of our humanity.This is of course a generalization, but in general it holds true.

I fail to understand this, but this happens across the globe, so it is not just a North American phenomenon.

A very simple explanation of what happened in care homes. Wages payed are very low. Few full time staff. Most staff work in more than one facility. No payed sick leave for these employee’s. This means the workers in these facilities work or lose their homes or the families suffer. These people go to work sick as they really don’t have much choice. Given the above there is only one result than can or should be expected and that is exactly what happened. Some of the rules have been changed but too little too late. Simply put chalk it up to corporate greed!

OriginalPouzar

godot10: It seems most of the players want a best of seven and not a best of five.

I think the “play in round” has been set a best of five.

The “debate” was between best of 3 and best of 5 and the players were adamant on the latter.

What hasn’t been finalized is the 1st real playoff round – best of 5 or best of 7.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Not to single you out, but ignoring total population is a big pet peeve of mine. It’s almost never mentioned it seems.

The US is well in the lead for total deaths but most of western Europe has more deaths per capita and Canada isn’t nearly as far behind as everyone seems to think.

Country Deaths/1M pop
Belgium —– 797
Spain ——– 613
UK ———— 541
Italy ———– 541
France ——- 433
Sweden —– 396
Netherlands 339
Ireland ——- 325
USA ———- 297
Switzerland- 220
Canada —– 168

Canada would be doing so much better of Bloc Québécois had their platform in place…….

Then again, take NY out and the US does much better as well…..

OriginalPouzar

oilersfan:
Harpers Hair,

Given how hot it gets in Vegas how will the ice be in July and August?

Also, if One hub city is in USA and one in Canada won’t they have to have a 2 week quarantine in the middle? Why not do both Edmonton and Vancouver? ThAt makes more sense than stopping play for two weeks in the middle of the playofffs.

Also add me to Bruce McCurdy and Kurt Leavins complaining that the oilers have to earn in and could be out in 2 games if it’s a best of 3.

Man that game we were beating Dallas 4-1 at home and lost in overtime basically cost us having to earn in. Who would have thought ?!?

Heat in Vegas may be a factor but I’m sure its something they are able to deal with and mitigate – not having 20K fans in the stands should be a huge help.

Of course, in the structuring, they have been dealing with government officials and, from accounts, the travel over the border when the 2 hubs combine in to one (if they are in seperate countries) won’t be an issue.

Yes, Canada has mandatory 14-day quarantine but, if bubble from the US comes and goes directly to the “Ice District bubble” – being in the Ice District bubble will likely be seen as quarantine – if its done properly.

jp

jtblack: Yah, I think any team picking inside the Top 5 is hoping to land an impact player ….Most of those #4 were impact players …. some decent NHLer’s … and only a few misses (Hickey, Reinhart & maybe JP)

Hickey and Reinhart are clear misses.

I’d include Puljujarvi, Bennett and Pouliot as ‘disappointing’ (I suspect some would also have Larsson in conversation). Puljujarvi and Bennett still have time to change their course though, in either direction.

And yes, more than half of those #4 picks are clear impact players.

defmn

jtblack: Oilers are attractive at 20-1 …

There is a group of six within a fairly tight range and then another group of six in a second tier that includes Edmonton before a steep drop to the 13th team. That seems to me to be a pretty fair assessment given where things were at when it all shut down.

jtblack

jp:
jtblack,

#4 since 2005

05 Benoit Pouliot
06 Nicklas Backstrom
07 Thomas Hickey
08 Alex Pietrangelo
09 Evander Kane
10 Ryan Johansen
11 Adam Larsson
12 Griffin Reinhart
13 Seth Jones
14 Sam Bennett
15 Mitch Marner
16 Jesse Puljujarvi
17 Cale Makar
18 Brady Tkachuk
19 Bowen Byram

That’s not the same as #8 or #14 at all. Still some “misses” (and the Oilers were all over those) but most were at least useful players.

Yah, I think any team picking inside the Top 5 is hoping to land an impact player ….Most of those #4 were impact players …. some decent NHLer’s … and only a few misses (Hickey, Reinhart & maybe JP)