Frantic

I’ve been listening to old Tyler Wright interviews in hopes of getting a feel for what the DRW prioritized during his time in Motown. Most of the time it’s not terribly useful to transcribe post-draft interviews, mostly because it gets tiresome typing “we really had a passion for this player” 12 times.

Wright’s insight has more nuance than the average and does in fact offer some clues about his approach with the Red Wings. Here are some snippets.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

WRIGHT QUOTES

On the theme of the 2018 draft: “We tried to target defense going into this draft, but things kind of happened (Detroit didn’t take a defenseman until their fourth selection). We had Berggren really high on our list and we couldn’t pass up the skill.”

This is encouraging. If you have first-round value on the board, take it and fill for need later. Edmonton did it in 2010 (I just wrote about this for The Athletic) and chose Tyler Pitlick over Martin Marincin.

On Jared McIsaac: “A steady defenseman, hard-nosed player. Skates well, plays in all situations. He’s a good penalty killer, physical, plays against the best players.”

Generally speaking, drafting this player type in the third round makes oodles more sense than the first round. I had Dmitri Samorukov ranked in the fourth round, Edmonton took him in the third round and it looks good three years later. Even if it didn’t work out, the risk was not enormous. I had Berggren No. 27, McIsaac No. 43.

On speed: “You see how fast the game is played, when you look at Athanasiou and Larkin, they’re all skaters. We want to be fast, with speed, we want to get big, but at the end of the day skill was the theme going into this draft.”

If that’s the plan, then Oilers fans should be encouraged in a big way. It’s okay for teams to draft big players, but make them fast and skilled, please and thanks. Especially early in the draft, when the top junior leagues still have some meat on the bone.

Depth picks: “Once we get past the third round, we start relying on area scouts. My viewings go out the window, so our area guys started making picks and pounding on the table.”

You can take any draft season and identify when the quality evens out, when black and white become shades of grey. Most 2020 lists should have a lot in common through No. 20 and someone will list 25 of 31 picks in their first-round ranking. Maybe things stay tight through No. 40. As opposed to a year ago when the loud noises began right after the top-five overall.

On drafting two Swedish goalies late: “We have a goalie scout in Sweden as well, we all rely on him heavily. When you look back on goaltenders, it’s a crap shoot a lot of the time. We like these guys.”

Like catching lightning in a bottle. I’m in favor of drafting one goalie every year, as long as it’s not a first-rounder (and better if the pick goes after No. 90). Two goalies drafted in one year? I don’t think it is wise.

The 2019 draft

Let’s see if we can go back to the 2019 draft and if anything Wright said matches the proceedings under the direction of Ken Holland. Wright talked about skill early and then things opening up after round three. He also talked about speed and skill, and goalies. Here are the first three picks, their ranking and a few words from Red Line.

LHD Philip Broberg No. 8 overall. Red Line No. 12. “Huge, smooth skating defenceman has a terrific combination of great size and obvious skills. Terrific poise and has a calm presence. Still learning nuances of the defensive game, wants to impact the game at both ends.” Corey Pronman from The Athletic said “he’s a 6-foot-3 defenseman who is an elite skater. That combination alone is scary.”

I would have chosen Arthur Kaliyev, most would have chosen Trevor Zegras, but Holland grabbed the big, fast defenseman. I don’t see him developing into a 40-point defenseman but said the exact thing about Oscar Klefbom. Dreamy is averaging 34 points per 82 games in the NHL. Miles to go with Broberg.

RW Raphael Lavoie, No. 38 overall. Red Line No. 16. “Polarizing prospect is a boom or bust player. Tremendous natural sniper who buries his chances – deadly from the circles in. Gets great wrist snap on a lightning fast release around the slot– needs almost no time or space to get dangerous shots away. Tremendously accurate too, picking corners at will. Combined with his great size and knack for sliding into open ice at the right moment, he’ll be a scorer at every level. Outstanding hands for receiving and controlling pucks. Uses wide base to protect puck and buy time and space to make plays. More of a shooter but can also generate chances for linemates down low. Needs to compete much harder, much more consistently.”

This is the second skill selection, Red Line ranked him just four spots behind Broberg. Now that Kailer Yamamoto is in the NHL, Lavoie is the most promising offensive forward in the system. A great pick. Oilers probably got a little lucky that he was available in the second round.

G Ilya Konovalov, No. 85 overall. Red Line 123. “Classic late-bloomer was a dominant force in the KHL and blossomed into the league’s top rookie. Extreme battler who will stop pucks with any body part and refuses to lose. Lacks ideal NHL size, but is athletic, flexible, well balanced, and smart.”

Fascinating selection, he didn’t make a lot of lists (Red Line is just excellent boys and girls). I really like the bet, but it’s not a slam dunk. I’d love to know if this was a Holland pick and it does rhyme with what Wright mentioned above.

RW Matej Blumel, No. 100. Red Line No. 81. “Second-year eligible is a versatile playmaking winger who’s effective in all areas of the game. Explosive skater with the ability to fill lanes and get up the ice quickly. More than the sum of his parts -works his ass off every shift, never stops moving his feet, and outhustles defenders for loose pucks. Plays with lots of speed and jump and creates chances.”

That’s a helluva scouting report. I don’t know that Blumel is going to play in the NHL, and it’s likely to be in a bottom-six role (he has a nice range of skills). He scored four goals in the Czech league last year but would need to spike in 2020-21 to establish a trajectory that eventually lands him an NHL job on a skill line.

The final two picks in the 2019 draft (Tomas Mazura and Maxim Denezhkin) are exactly the kind of pick an area scout might be hammering on the table about late in the draft when the coffee is burned so badly the aroma offends your sense of smell. I could see that.

Skill pick LHD Philip Broberg played 13:59 in the SHL during 2019-20, age 18. He scored 1-7-8 in 45 games, 13:19 at even strength making him No. 6 on the even strength depth chart. He was 23-23 on-ice goal differential in the discipline. He had an 8.7 NHLE. At the same age, same league, Klefbom played 12:04 a night and had an NHLE of 3.0. Miles to go.

Darcy will join me today to explain the latest Puck IQ innovation and it’s already a valuable one. Why? Among other things it gives us another bullet in the chamber in finding out which players the coach values in specific situations. For years, we could evaluate defensemen using time on ice (most minutes=best defensemen) then possession stats (behind the net through natural stat trick) helped light the way.

Puck IQ gave us public binning, representing a major step forward in that we can know Ethan Bear played enormous minutes against elites as a rookie. The new shift start stat (Darcy will be on at 10:20) tells us that ‘on the fly’ shifts are a massive part of the game, and could reflect how much (or little) a coach trusts his third pair. It’s very cool to be in on this from a fan point of view, we’ll drill down and see what else Darcy found with this cool new tool.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bring your brain. Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers will join us to talk about the latest Puck IQ innovation ‘shift starts’ and what we can learn from them. At 11, Frank Seravalli from TSN gives us a lay of the land in the NHL after a frantic week. Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance will give me one good reason not to hate mlb more than I already do at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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107 Responses to "Frantic"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    First quote shows me that they target positions but, early on, BPA is still available – they were targeting d-men in 2018 but didn’t take one until the fourth round as they much have chosen BPA over need.

  2. digger50 says:

    I love that Oilers are not heavily favored going into Chicago series. Keeps expectations level.

    I read a comment how “young legs” should favor Edmonton, but after viewing Chicago’s line up they are very young. Strome, Nylander, DeBrincat, Dach, plus more.

    I think Kassian ad Larson will absolutely terrorize this group.

  3. jtblack says:

    digger50:
    I love that Oilers are not heavily favored going into Chicago series. Keeps expectations level.

    I read a comment how “young legs” should favor Edmonton, but after viewing Chicago’s line up they are very young. Strome, Nylander, DeBrincat, Dach, plus more.

    I think Kassian ad Larson will absolutely terrorize this group.

    Be interesting to see playoff games played …

    Obviously Chicago has a handful of players that have LOADS of experience, but also many others who have close to none …

    Edmonton? not a lot of experience .. Mike Green will help. Mike Smith will help.

  4. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    First quote shows me that they target positions but, early on, BPA is still available – they were targeting d-men in 2018 but didn’t take one until the fourth round as they much have chosen BPA over need.

    In the last thread OP, you said the league hasn’t decided if they will reseed after the play ins or go with a bracket. I’m not sure how this affects the Oilers. Do we not face the worst of the top four in both scenarios? Maybe I’m wrong.

  5. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    First quote shows me that they target positions but, early on, BPA is still available – they were targeting d-men in 2018 but didn’t take one until the fourth round as they much have chosen BPA over need.

    Actually it was their fourth selection which was taken with the 36th pick. They had 2 1st rounders and 2 2nds. But, yeah, it looks like they went BPA over need which sheds some light on the Broberg pick a year later I would think.

  6. defmn says:

    “Once we get past the third round, we start relying on area scouts. My viewings go out the window, so our area guys started making picks and pounding on the table.”

    I love this quote.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, Stauff has Neal at 1LW with Connor and Kass and Ennis as a healthy scratch (along with Haas).

    He also has Benning at 3RD (with Rusty) and Green (and Jones) scratched!

    I don’t see Ennis not making the starting lineup personally.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    Level 1:
    Expect the NHL and NHLPA to push back the June 1 signing deadline one month. The league and PA need more time to negotiate possibility of entry level players like Alex Romanov being allowed to play when/if 2019/20 season resumes.

  9. N64 says:

    digger50: I love that Oilers are not heavily favored going into Chicago series. Keeps expectations level

    Aside from the Pens don’t think anyone should be heavily favoured in a 5 game series.

    After the Pens at -200 Oddshark has the Oilers & Canes & Leafs as the next most favored at -150.

  10. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow, Stauff has Neal at 1LW with Connor and Kass and Ennis as a healthy scratch (along with Haas).

    He also has Benning at 3RD (with Rusty) and Green (and Jones) scratched!

    I don’t see Ennis not making the starting lineup personally.

    Yeah I’d be very surprised to see Ennis scratched too.

    Neal at 1LW wouldn’t shock me though. Seems like a long time ago but he is still 4th on the team with 19 goals this season. And he has more playoff experience than anyone else as well (not saying I’d do it but I wouldn’t be at all surprised).

    Russell/Jones/Benning/Green is much more of a toss up IMO.

  11. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow, Stauff has Neal at 1LW with Connor and Kass and Ennis as a healthy scratch (along with Haas).

    He also has Benning at 3RD (with Rusty) and Green (and Jones) scratched!

    I don’t see Ennis not making the starting lineup personally.

    A roster prediction at this point is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    We know the structural core of what the roster will look like, but predicting which role players get which spots is not knowable till we see the players at training camp.

  12. N64 says:

    godot10: A roster prediction at this point is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    ~ More important issues. Need to discuss the playoff roster which will be limited to 28 skaters and unlimited goalers. Coach might make a mistake on the 28th skater without our help. ~

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    NHL Officially Announces Certain Rewards:

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/05/nhl-officially-announces-several-awards.html

    Congrats Leon!

  14. OilClog says:

    The Panzer is about to lay waste to Chicago and every other unfortunate team caught in his tracks and make everyone look foolish when he doesn’t win MVP because Jack is a good kid in Buffalo.

  15. OilClog says:

    OilClog,

    I see Jack has infact been eliminated from contention and clearly Boston is getting more hardware

  16. Reja says:

    Just a little hook by Hawerchuk on the winning goal by Lemieux and poor Kravchuk getting balled out by Victor Tikanhov for pinching in.

  17. Ribs says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    NHL Officially Announces Certain Rewards:

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/05/nhl-officially-announces-several-awards.html

    Congrats Leon!

    I hope the McDavid surge has been saved for the playoffs! More “what if?” moments for his career. Damn.

    Can’t be mad at this result, though. Rock on, Draisaitl!

  18. hunter1909 says:

    Worrying about what Tyler Wright said 2 years ago is such an Oilers thing to worry about.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai, MacKinnon and Pastarnak finalists for the Hart!

  20. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Drai, MacKinnon and Pastarnak finalists for the Hart!

    Draisaitl carried a limp McDavid to the Art Ross he’s a natural for a double with the Hart – or is the NHL that wack they separate awards to give more of them out to more players?

  21. N64 says:

    Rondo:
    Too much bad and overhyped information regarding covid.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/28/how_media_sensationalism_big_tech_bias_extended_lockdowns_143302.html

    No stay at home lockdowns here like in the US. Our death count in Alberta scaled up to the US population works out to 10,000 deaths vs. their 100,000. Axe-throwing may be the growth industry south of the border, but not needed here. Please and Thanks.

  22. Material Elvis says:

    Rondo:
    Too much bad and overhyped information regarding covid.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/28/how_media_sensationalism_big_tech_bias_extended_lockdowns_143302.html

    Does bad information include ingesting bleach? Taking hydroxychloroquine? Sunlight therapy? False accusations of criminal responsibility?

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: Draisaitl carried a limp McDavid to the Art Ross he’s a natural for a double with the Hart – or is the NHL that wack they separate awards to give more of them out to more players?

    Drai deserves it. MacKinnon wins it. Book it.l

  24. Rondo says:

    Material Elvis,

    Just because you want to believe something doesn’t make it true. You should do your own research

  25. Ribs says:

    Rondo:
    Too much bad and overhyped information regarding covid.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/28/how_media_sensationalism_big_tech_bias_extended_lockdowns_143302.html

    “Did You Know? As of May 20 the CDC estimates that coronavirus has an overall infection fatality rate of 0.26%. “

    *Follows link they got this info from. Searches 0.026. Sees that they took this number from anything other than the table marked “Current Best Estimate” when that was an option. Closes browser tab.*

  26. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: Drai deserves it. MacKinnon wins it. Book it.l

    Only the playoffs/draft if Hawks bounce the Oilers matter to me lol

  27. jp says:

    Rondo:
    Material Elvis,

    Just because you want to believe something doesn’t make it true. You should do your own research

    Do you believe the people giving you pushback on this have done less research on the topic than you?

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rondo:
    Too much bad and overhyped information regarding covid.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/28/how_media_sensationalism_big_tech_bias_extended_lockdowns_143302.html

    I’m sure I’ll be in the minority here, but this is an excellent article. Democracy is built on freedom of speech and we see this being trashed more and more all the time. You don’t have to like someone’s opinion, but our future is doomed when we forbid and restrict people from expressing their opinions.

  29. Rondo says:

    jp,

    I use primary sources to research. What material print said is false

  30. jp says:

    Rondo:
    jp,

    I use primary sources to research. What material print said is false

    Isn’t the article you posted print material? Most of the links in there are to other news articles. What do you mean by primary sources?

  31. Rondo says:

    jp,

    I go to the cdc and confirm. But I was talking about wat materalprint said

  32. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: Drai deserves it. MacKinnon wins it. Book it.l

    If Leon went cold or even fizzled a bit while Connor was out for the 7 games Nathan wins just because. Leon not only held his own but went playoff beast mode with Connor sidelined the German captures the award easily.

  33. jp says:

    Rondo:

    But I was talking about wat materalprint said

    I’m confused here. Do you mean Material Elvis? About bleach and hydrocholorquine?

  34. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rondo:
    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/22/nothing-can-justify-this-destruction-of-peoples-lives/

    My main concern is that politicians are getting used to this. CMO’s are defacto premiers because the politicians don’t want to look bad and also get daily high view facetime which is becoming more about politicking daily to me.

    In BC they cleared 4500 beds for a surge that never came. 4% of beds used and many of those were in ICU because they could be. Great for those folks, not great for the 30 000 people who’s treatments were delayed, years to catch up.

    Certainly the measures helped keep numbers low, but it was clear early in it wasn’t coming here the same way as the countries devastated by taking Open Road Chinese money and workers.

    Or dense pop cities like New York.

    Unfortunately the unstated plan is keep it under wraps until the vaccine, which may never come.

    Meanwhile there is wide spread impact, and future Canadians can enjoy massive debt repayments so we in most of the provinces can have Covid numbers well under 1% with few deaths.

    It’s a monstrous over reaction. The core issue is believing that nature can be fought. It is not possible to shut things down every time something comes along with such a low mortality risk.

    Ebola? Ok then I’m on board. That one is truly nasty.

    So get the hockey going!

  35. Reja says:

    Rondo:
    jp,

    I use primary sources to research. What material print said is false

    How soon before the first Virus tax kicks in? Two years over-under?

  36. jp says:

    Rondo:

    I go to the cdc and confirm.

    I don’t know. The cdc page the article links to doesn’t have the number .26 or .026 anywhere on it. And also doesn’t have infection fatality rates.

    Maybe you or RIBS can point out where the infection fatality rates were found? I didn’t see that. I’m curious to see what the cdc says.

    The CDC does have the current cases and deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html). ~1.7M cases and ~100k deaths. That’s 5.9%.

    Everyone agrees that’s an overestimate because many cases haven’t been detected. But there would have to be 23 times as many cases as are known for the 0.26% infection fatality rate from the article to be possible. Maybe 39 million Americans have already been infected with Covid, rather than 1.7 million..?

  37. G Money says:

    Darcy will join me today to explain the latest Puck IQ innovation and it’s already a valuable one. Why? Among other things it gives us another bullet in the chamber in finding out which players the coach values in specific situations. For years, we could evaluate defensemen using time on ice (most minutes=best defensemen) then possession stats (behind the net through natural stat trick) helped light the way.

    Fantastic spot from WoodMaskGuy on the show today.

    (I may be biased in that regard, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong!)

  38. jtblack says:

    I think Leon will win the HART. He lead the scoring by a wide margin and he also showed that when Connor was out, he could still maintain his dominance.

  39. N64 says:

    Reja: How soon before the first Virus tax kicks in?Two years over-under?

    The first viral tax on the economy is that people everywhere slash non-essential economic activity before gov’ts say boo. The last viral tax on the economy is dead people. In between gov’t action is much better at reducing transmission than it is at stimulating the economy before reduced transmission.

    There is a place in between where liberty and the public good work together to maximize our personal and economic lives BY protecting public health. The Swedish experiment proved that neither the economy nor the elderly can be protected when community transmission is out of control. Alberta and BC had fewer closures and deaths and will leverage economic advantage from that.

  40. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis: Does bad information include ingesting bleach?Taking hydroxychloroquine?Sunlight therapy?False accusations of criminal responsibility?

    Democratic governors in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania and other states sent positive Covid cases to nursing homes. Cuomo in particular had two almost unused hospitals, the hospital ship and Javitts Centre, and he seeded nursing homes with Covid cases. Nobodies hospital systems were overwhelemed and yet those governors forced Covid patients on nursing homes.

    Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine had show antiviral action against the original SARS. (2005 NIH paper https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/ ) There are articles from the current crisis showing antiviral action of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine with zinc in cell cultures. Which is why both were tried and used widely in Asia. There is a retrospective study on hydroxychloroquine used as a prophylactic led to reduced days of illness. Google censors anything positive on hydroxychloroquine. Arguably it is zinc that is the important part. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are zinc ionophores. They get zinc through the cell wall.
    The negative articles on hydroxychloroquine involve treating really sick patients, where it clearly will not serve any useful purpose, or without zinc.

    Google is also censoring articles on Vitamin D deficiency and Covid, regardless of whether they are legitimate papers.

  41. Material Elvis says:

    Rondo:
    Material Elvis,

    Just because you want to believe something doesn’t make it true. You should do your own research

    You should try following your own advice or risk looking like a hypocrite. Right wing opinion-based websites are not considered factual evidence. When a demagogue tweets, that isn’t considered factual evidence. Googling isn’t scientific research. I have a masters degree in physiology from a top Canadian university and am well aware what constitutes ‘research’. You are searching for online articles to support your narrative — classic confirmation bias.

    I’m not saying your argument is wrong or right, but your approach to proving your argument is beyond flawed.

  42. godot10 says:

    N64: The first viral tax on the economy is that people everywhere slash non-essential economic activity before gov’ts say boo. The last viral tax on the economy is dead people. In between gov’t action is much better at reducing transmission than it is at stimulating the economy before reduced transmission.

    There is a place in between where liberty and the public good work together to maximize our personal and economic lives BY protecting public health. The Swedish experiment proved that neither the economy nor the elderly can be protected when community transmission is out of control. Alberta and BC had fewer closures and deaths and will leverage economic advantage from that.

    Sweden’s hospitals were not overwhelmed. If no vaccine or therapeutic is developed, they will have no excess deaths. Everyone else will catch up with them. Flattening the curve doesn’t save lives overall unless a vaccine or therapeutic is developed.

    Everyone will be going Swedish now anyways, because the massive money printing bomb can only be used once.

    Going forward, one hopes for a vaccine or therapeutic, but one manages the infection levels allowing economic activity which doesn’t overwhelm the hospitals.

  43. Ribs says:

    jp: I don’t know. The cdc page the article links to doesn’t have the number .26 or .026 anywhere on it. And also doesn’t have infection fatality rates.

    0.026 is on the CDC page they link to, in an unrelated column. It is the closest thing I could see that they would be referring to. It should really be 0.0026 for it to make any sense (this does not appear anywhere).

    The page does have the “Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio” listed with their Best Current Estimate at 0.4%. This is the number they should have used in the article, instead of 0.26%. The date they cite doesn’t match up with the CDC page as well.

    There is a possibility that the website has added the link automatically and it is completely unrelated to the article. We could confirm this by looking at the sources listed at the bottom of the article… Nope, they don’t exist. Maybe a true journalist would have listed them.

    Yinon Weiss is a tech entrepreneur, a U.S. military veteran, and a bioengineer by education.

  44. N64 says:

    jp: I don’t know. The cdc page the article links to doesn’t have the number .26 or .026 anywhere on it. And also doesn’t have infection fatality rates.

    Maybe you or RIBS can point out where the infection fatality rates were found? I didn’t see that. I’m curious to see what the cdc says.

    The CDC does have the current cases and deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html). ~1.7M cases and ~100k deaths. That’s 5.9%.

    Everyone agrees that’s an overestimate because many cases haven’t been detected. But there would have to be 23 times as many cases as are known for the 0.26% infection fatality rate from the article to be possible. Maybe 39 million Americans have already been infected with Covid, rather than 1.7 million..?

    If we’re going to count reported cases and estimate unreported cases it should be apples to apples.

    “In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far

    Even 15.000 for a completely unchecked flu season vs already 100K dead in the US in a few months of lockdown should slow down folks who sling around percentages.

    You don’t get IFR without serology. You can’t estimate well with serology when your false positives rate could exceed your % exposed estimate. On the other hand you could take your estimates from NYC where there was high circulation or Spain or even Stockholm. When you do that you’ll get IFRs from 0.6% – 1.2%.

    0.26% IFR is not inconceivable but studies in high circulation areas are not estimating that low. Technically nothing wrong for CDC to plug it into their scenario, but that’s all the CDC did.

    Final caution. When you use real deaths counted similarly for flu you’ll get .04% IFR. The 0.6% low end estimate from NYC would be 15X the fatality. No surprise given the head to head disease results in NYC.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far

  45. jp says:

    godot10: Google is also censoring articles on Vitamin D deficiency and Covid, regardless of whether they are legitimate papers.

    Do we have a different Google?

    I googled “Vitamin D deficiency Covid” and the entire page is articles indicating that vitamin D is beneficial against Covid. (mostly popular articles, a couple ‘legitimate papers’).

    What is google censoring?

  46. Material Elvis says:

    godot10: Democratic governors in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania and other states sent positive Covid cases to nursing homes.Cuomo in particular had two almost unused hospitals, the hospital ship and Javitts Centre, and he seeded nursing homes with Covid cases.Nobodies hospital systems were overwhelemed and yet those governors forced Covid patients on nursing homes.

    Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine had show antiviral action against the original SARS.(2005 NIH paper https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/ ) There are articles from the current crisis showing antiviral action of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine with zinc in cell cultures.Which is why both were tried and used widely in Asia.There is a retrospective study on hydroxychloroquine used as a prophylactic led to reduced days of illness.Google censors anything positive on hydroxychloroquine.Arguably it is zinc that is the important part.Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are zinc ionophores.They get zinc through the cell wall.
    The negative articles on hydroxychloroquine involve treating really sick patients, where it clearly will not serve any useful purpose, or without zinc.

    Google is also censoring articles on Vitamin D deficiency and Covid, regardless of whether they are legitimate papers.

    More importantly and more recently, hydroxychloroquine has not been proven to be efficacious as a treatment for Covid-19. There are negative side effects that you are conveniently ignoring and most medical trials have been halted for that reason.

    Hydroxychloroquine might display antiviral properties but that does not mean it is safe for large scale human consumption. Same as colloidal silver; it has antibacterial properties but taking it to fight an infection might poison you.

  47. jp says:

    Ribs: 0.026 is on the CDC page they link to, in an unrelated column. It is the closest thing I could see that they would be referring to. It should really be 0.0026 for it to make any sense (this does not appear anywhere).

    The page does have the “Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio” listed with their Best Current Estimate at 0.4%. This is the number they should have used in the article, instead of 0.26%. The date they cite doesn’t match up with the CDC page as well.

    There is a possibility that the website has added the link automatically and it is completely unrelated to the article. We could confirm this by looking at the sources listed at the bottom of the article… Nope, they don’t exist. Maybe a true journalist would have listed them.

    Yinon Weiss is a tech entrepreneur, a U.S. military veteran, and a bioengineer by education.

    OK, 0.026 was an estimate for “symptomatic case hospitalizations” under age 50. Thanks.

    Yeah it’s not clear that the 0.26% fatality rate from the article came from the CDC at all…

  48. jp says:

    N64: 0.26% IFR is not inconceivable but studies in high circulation areas are not estimating that low. Technically nothing wrong for CDC to plug it into their scenario, but that’s all the CDC did.

    It doesn’t look like they even did that…

  49. N64 says:

    godot10:

    Everyone will be going Swedish now anyways, because the massive money printing bomb can only be used once.

    No. Sweden’s premise was that they could reach herd immunity while keeping this from the elderly.
    What they’ve demonstrated is that you can’t actually protect sensitive zones inside an uncontrolled fire. And it did not stop there economy from contracting. By their own estimates they are not closed to herd immunity. So they’ll need to repeat this for the 2nd wave.

    Lower overall circulation and chasing outbreaks before they are out of control makes it easier to protect the elderly and the economy. The Alberta nursing home outbreak are a good illustration. The first few weeks it got into 3 nursing homes with dozens of deaths. After that the later outbreaks were nipped with a few deaths.

    AB and BC did not do a stay at home lock down, did not adopt a fatalistic approach, and will likely need to do less and far more locally in the next wave. Good for people can be good for the economy.

    BTW, even emerging treatments other than vaccines can make a difference when Sweden and others tally up results 2 years in.

    Cheers.

  50. Material Elvis says:

    The fatality rate is approximately 2% of all reported infections. So let’s say we didn’t flatten the curve like some posters are suggesting; just let everyone catch the virus and deal with it. There are 35,000,000 people in Canada so that would be 700,000 deaths. Even if the actual number was 1%, that is still 350,000 Canadians alone. Are people really questioning our response?

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Drai, MacKinnon and Pastarnak finalists for the Hart!

    Shocked that Panarin and Eichel aren’t on that list along with Draisaitl.

  52. Ribs says:

    It’s always great to hear WG and LT on the radio. I was glad I had the chance to listen in today. Good stuff!

    GMoney and crew – Your work is greatly appreciated! Thanks!

    —–

    Anyone hear word of when THN will have a physical edition of their Draft Preview available? I don’t want to miss it!

  53. N64 says:

    jp: It doesn’t look like they even did that…

    Here’s something. There most likely case’s age stratified asymptomatic ratios work out to a 0.4% IFR estimate. At the low end, but not impossible.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

    Update The quote explains they are effectively using a 0.26% IFR which is very low end.

  54. N64 says:

    Material Elvis:
    The fatality rate is approximately 2% of all reported infections.So let’s say we didn’t flatten the curve like some posters are suggesting;just let everyone catch the virus and deal with it.There are 35,000,000 people in Canada so that would be 700,000 deaths.Even if the actual number was 1%, that is still 350,000 Canadians alone. Are people really questioning our response?

    Yes. The whole crisis is hard and it’s really easy for everyone to think the other guys are hysterical. The Sweden would not recognize what some folks think they did. We could start instread with the observation that the Swedish imposed throughout the same mass gathering limit of 50 as BC imposed.

    People need reasons and invent them as needed. BUT: Shit happened. People ducked. Economies contracted. Gov’ts closest to wall reacted very strongly. Other govt’s over or under reacted. Economies are best stimulated by low covid circulation

  55. godot10 says:

    jp: Do we have a different Google?

    I googled “Vitamin D deficiency Covid” and the entire page is articles indicating that vitamin D is beneficial against Covid. (mostly popular articles, a couple ‘legitimate papers’).

    What is google censoring?

    One reputable medical site I follow had Google take down some of its Youtube videos on particular topics. Namely hydroxychloroquine and vitamin D.

    Maybe I should have said Youtube was censoring, but Google and Youtube are the same entity.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Democratic governors in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania and other states sent positive Covid cases to nursing homes. Cuomo in particular had two almost unused hospitals, the hospital ship and Javitts Centre, and he seeded nursing homes with Covid cases. Nobodies hospital systems were overwhelemed and yet those governors forced Covid patients on nursing homes.

    This practice has been stopped, at least in New York, but it’s too late.

    We have an elderly relative in a ~250 bed care home in New York, every day we get an email notifying us of new Covid cases in the home. So far there are about 150 cases, split pretty much evenly between residents and staff. Something like 10 deaths so far… it’s almost inconceivable that there won’t be 100% infection rate in that home by end of summer. It’s running rampant.

  57. jp says:

    N64,

    Thanks

  58. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis:
    Hydroxychloroquine might display antiviral properties but that does not mean it is safe for large scale human consumption.Same as colloidal silver;it has antibacterial properties but taking it to fight an infection might poison you.

    Hydroxychloroquine is safe. It has been around for 50 years. One shouldn’t use it with antibiotics, as that comibination is known and has been known for a long time to pose some cardiovascular risks.

    One shouldn’t be giving hydroxychloroquine to people who are already severely sick. But then again, nobody “pro”-hydroxychloroquine has ever advocated that. The “pro” people argue that it should be used a prophylactic or very early in the infection, preferably with zinc, and then stopped after a fixed period of days…usually a week or so.

  59. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis:
    The fatality rate is approximately 2% of all reported infections.So let’s say we didn’t flatten the curve like some posters are suggesting;just let everyone catch the virus and deal with it.There are 35,000,000 people in Canada so that would be 700,000 deaths.Even if the actual number was 1%, that is still 350,000 Canadians alone. Are people really questioning our response?

    The known cases are not reflective of the general population. We won’t know that the fatality rate is until there is antibody testing of a large sample of people respresentative of the general population, and that looks like it will be certainly far less than 2%.

  60. jp says:

    godot10: One reputable medical site I follow had Google take down some of its Youtube videos on particular topics.Namely hydroxychloroquine and vitamin D.

    Maybe I should have said Youtube was censoring, but Google and Youtube are the same entity.

    Yeah that seems odd. The info appears freely available on google as well as on pubmed and other places that list scientific papers.

    People need to know they can overdose on hydrochloroquine, and too much Vitamin D isn’t good either. But I think it’s clear these things may help at least somewhat against Covid…

  61. jp says:

    godot10,

    Bloomberg reports Youtube admits it shouldn’t have removed the videos and reinstates them. I tried linking to the article but it’s in moderation (due to having Tru*p in the url?).

  62. N64 says:

    godot10: The known cases are not reflective of the general population.We won’t know that the fatality rate is until there is antibody testing of a large sample of people representative of the general population, and that looks like it will be certainly far less than 2%.

    The meta searches in preprints currently have studies with very wide ranges, but 2% seems high for IFR.

    You need a large representative sample and I’d be very concerned about false positives where they would swap measured values. Quite a few reports from areas estimating seroprevellance at 5%+. After that the issue is how random/representative and comparing to dissimilar populations elsewhere.

  63. N64 says:

    jp:
    godot10,

    Bloomberg reports Youtube admits it shouldn’t have removed the videos and reinstates them. I tried linking to the article but it’s in moderation (due to having Tru*p in the url?).

    Try creating a preview link at tinyurl. Anyone who clicks that gets to see the full link before travelling.

    Like this:

    https://tinyurl.com/y7cuq7th

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: Be interesting to see playoff games played …

    Obviously Chicago has a handful of players that have LOADS of experience, but also many others who have close to none …

    Edmonton? not a lot of experience .. Mike Green will help.Mike Smith will help.

    Mike Smith will help with experience – Mikko Koskinen should help with the goaltending.

    I do think Tip will play Smith, his guy, the veteran – Smith could very well get hot and help win – at the same time, Mikko was the better goalie in the regular season.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: In the last thread OP, you said the league hasn’t decided if they will reseed after the play ins or go with a bracket. I’m not sure how this affects the Oilers. Do we not face the worst of the top four in both scenarios? Maybe I’m wrong.

    I could be wrong but I think you are wrong (or could be) because, as I said, they have not decided if its a bracket-style or they will re-seed – both after the play-in and after the 1st real round.

    Sounds like the league will essentially let the players decide on this one and the players seem to not like the bracket so, we are likely to get a re-seed which would be good.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Actually it was their fourth selection which was taken with the 36th pick. They had 2 1st rounders and 2 2nds. But, yeah, it looks like they went BPA over need which sheds some light on the Broberg pick a year later I would think.

    Thank you for the clarification.

  67. jp says:

    godot10,

    N64: Try creating a preview link at tinyurl. Anyone who clicks that gets to see the full link before travelling.

    https://tinyurl.com/yakwrh8e

  68. Rondo says:

    jp,

    Yes

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Friedman, phase 3, training camps, won’t start before July 10 and Pagnotta indicates the “target date” is July 14.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: A roster prediction at this point is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    We know the structural core of what the roster will look like, but predicting which role players get which spots is not knowable till we see the players at training camp.

    I think he have a pretty good idea of what coach T is going to do and I think it can be talked about with knowledge based on information.

    Don’t pull a Yaremchuk!

    Speculation can, will and should happen!

  71. Reja says:

    These pretzels are making me thirsty.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: ~ More important issues. Need to discuss the playoff roster which will be limited to 28 skaters and unlimited goalers. Coach might make a mistake on the 28th skater without our help. ~

    They are thinking about bringing Broberg (if he is willing) which would be 11 d-man, leaving only 17 forwards available.

  73. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Mike Smith will help with experience – Mikko Koskinen should help with the goaltending.

    I do think Tip will play Smith, his guy, the veteran – Smith could very well get hot and help win – at the same time, Mikko was the better goalie in the regular season.

    I say Tippett will ask Smith if his groin is good and if he’s ready to go he’ll start game 1.

  74. jp says:

    Material Elvis: Does bad information include ingesting bleach? Taking hydroxychloroquine? Sunlight therapy? False accusations of criminal responsibility?

    Rondo: What material print said is false

    jp: Do you mean Material Elvis? About bleach and hydrocholorquine?

    Rondo: Yes

    Are we on the same page?

    If so, what is false? There’s video evidence of much of it:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHkzqejFKbM

  75. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: They are thinking about bringing Broberg (if he is willing) which would be 11 d-man, leaving only 17 forwards available.

    It is interesting.

    That would leave only Benson and Granlund(?) as the call-ups among forwards, I guess. (no Currie, Marody, Malone, Gambardella, McLeod etc).

  76. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: I could be wrong but I think you are wrong (or could be) because, as I said, they have not decided if its a bracket-style or they will re-seed – both after the play-in and after the 1st real round.

    Sounds like the league will essentially let the players decide on this one and the players seem to not like the bracket so, we are likely to get a re-seed which would be good.

    this is long overdue .. The NHL is quite resistant to change. But a pandemic is not FORCING them to think outside the box ….

    1 change that looks like it will come is the Re-seeding after playing and 1st Round. Fans and players have long been asking for this … I do hope it happens that way ..

    Also, after this season, I bet we never see a straight 16 team playoff again. I bet there will be some form of play-ins every year. Might only be 18 or 20 teams, but there will be some excitement about deciding the last few teams for the playoffs..

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    Just listened to an interview with super agent Kurt Overhart.

    He is saying the players are likely going to demand financial compensation for playing in this season’s playoffs.

    His reasoning is that nowhere in the CBA does it cover players being quarantined, bubbled and away from their families potentially for months.

    Could throw a wrench into Bettman’s plans.

  78. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just listened to an interview with super agent Kurt Overhart.

    He is saying the players are likely going to demand financial compensation for playing in this season’s playoffs.

    His reasoning is that nowhere in the CBA does it cover players being quarantined, bubbled and away from their families potentially for months.

    Could throw a wrench into Bettman’s plans.

    It will be interesting.

    Much of the money will eventually come out of their pockets if they decide not to play…

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just listened to today’s interview with Bettman on Ray and Dregs.

    When asked about the hub cities, Bettman was clear that they cannot shut things down after stage 3 (training camps) and stage 4 (enter the hubs and start playing) for a 14 day isolation. So, if that rule is in place in Canada without flexibility then, unfortunately, Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver will be out. He was clear that he wasn’t “asking Canada to change its rules” but it is what it is.

    Personally, I think they’ll be able to work around the 14 day by allowing teams to be cohorts and maybe even dual team cohorts. There is going to be a couple exhibition games so perhaps two team cohorts that play each other twice can be used – it may not be 14 days but, with prior testing, maybe the period can be shortened.

    Anyways, he mentioned he’ll need to make a decision on the hubs in 3 weeks and will probably need to narrow it down after 2. Be interesting to see what Freeland (Truds) agree to, if anything, in this regard.

    ————————–

    Asked about innovative tech for the broadcasts and he did say they are actively working on that with the networks. Could be some interesting things but its all discussion right now.

    ————————-

    CBA talks – wouldn’t say if they were ramping up but did say he and Fehr speak essentially every day and they are getting very good information from the players with regards to needs and issues.

  80. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just listened to an interview with super agent Kurt Overhart.

    He is saying the players are likely going to demand financial compensation for playing in this season’s playoffs.

    His reasoning is that nowhere in the CBA does it cover players being quarantined, bubbled and away from their families potentially for months.

    Could throw a wrench into Bettman’s plans.

    Would throw a wrench into next year’s escrow with rightsholders being owed games to televise. The first votes suggests players are interested in Return to Play, But I’d assume that the PA will only ratify a deal with a high consensus.

  81. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just listened to an interview with super agent Kurt Overhart.

    He is saying the players are likely going to demand financial compensation for playing in this season’s playoffs.

    His reasoning is that nowhere in the CBA does it cover players being quarantined, bubbled and away from their families potentially for months.

    Could throw a wrench into Bettman’s plans.

    That is an easy bluff for Bettman to call. Fortunately, Fehr isn’t as full of himself as Overhart is.

  82. John Chambers says:

    I’m pretty sure the hockey players will want to play the hockey and make the money.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: It is interesting.

    That would leave only Benson and Granlund(?) as the call-ups among forwards, I guess. (no Currie, Marody, Malone, Gambardella, McLeod etc).

    Lets count:

    McDavid
    Drai
    Nuge
    Kailer
    Kass
    Ennis
    AA
    Sheahan
    Archie
    Nygard
    Haas
    Khaira
    Neal
    Chiasson
    P. Russell

    So, ya, that’s 15 and I would expect Granny and Benson to be the other two.

    My guess is they don’t go with Broberg and bring another forward – potentially Jurco if he’s recovered.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just listened to an interview with super agent Kurt Overhart.

    He is saying the players are likely going to demand financial compensation for playing in this season’s playoffs.

    His reasoning is that nowhere in the CBA does it cover players being quarantined, bubbled and away from their families potentially for months.

    Could throw a wrench into Bettman’s plans.

    Interesting – one would think the 7-8% less of their 2020/21 comp they have to give back would be financial compensation.

    So, how would that work. I mean, quarantine doesn’t start unil stage 4, after training camps.

    For 8 teams, they play two exhibition games and then 3-5 games and they are done.

    7 games is like an Eastern road trip for the Oilers…..

  85. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets count:

    McDavid
    Drai
    Nuge
    Kailer
    Kass
    Ennis
    AA
    Sheahan
    Archie
    Nygard
    Haas
    Khaira
    Neal
    Chiasson
    P. Russell

    So, ya, that’s 15 and I would expect Granny and Benson to be the other two.

    My guess is they don’t go with Broberg and bring another forward – potentially Jurco if he’s recovered.

    Watch Jurco somehow light it up in the playoffs. I had high hopes for him heading into the season (when I say high I hopes, I mean him potentially settling on the 3rd line, with bump ups to second if there were injuries). There’s skill there.

  86. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: 7 games is like an Eastern road trip for the Oilers…..

    Speaking of road trips no home games so here’s the regular season road results for the play in teams:

    Nashville .667
    Edmonton/Calgary .632
    Winnipeg .597
    Chicago .563
    Arizona .545
    Minnesota .531
    Vancouver .469

  87. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets count:

    McDavid
    Drai
    Nuge
    Kailer
    Kass
    Ennis
    AA
    Sheahan
    Archie
    Nygard
    Haas
    Khaira
    Neal
    Chiasson
    P. Russell

    So, ya, that’s 15 and I would expect Granny and Benson to be the other two.

    My guess is they don’t go with Broberg and bring another forward – potentially Jurco if he’s recovered.

    Buffalo was down to their 11th defensemen in 2006.

  88. Material Elvis says:

    godot10: Hydroxychloroquine is safe.It has been around for 50 years.One shouldn’t use it with antibiotics, as that comibination is known and has been known for a long time to pose some cardiovascular risks.

    One shouldn’t be giving hydroxychloroquine to people who are already severely sick.But then again, nobody “pro”-hydroxychloroquine has ever advocated that.The “pro” people argue that it should be used a prophylactic or very early in the infection, preferably with zinc, and then stopped after a fixed period of days…usually a week or so.

    It is safe if the proper dosage and timeframe are followed. It’s quite toxic in large doses. I just had a chance to search for zinc’s potential to enhance hydroxychloroquine tx. There are certainly in vitro studies that support the idea. There are a handful of human trials currently underway; the earliest completion date is July 31st for one in Tunisia (N=660). The others target completion dates range from September to December. One cannot make firm conclusions on the proposed treatment until the evidence supports it, in my opinion.

  89. Lowetide says:

    To anyone reading: Please do not take any medical advice from any poster. See your doctor. Seriously.

  90. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: The meta searches in preprints currently have studies with very wide ranges, but 2% seems high for IFR.

    You need a large representative sample and I’d be very concerned about false positives where they would swap measured values. Quite a few reports from areas estimating seroprevellance at 5%+. After that the issue is how random/representative and comparing to dissimilar populations elsewhere.

    Thanks for your considered thoughts regarding things.

    Do you have expertise in infectious disease? Or are your comments based on your own research?

  91. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Thanks for your considered thoughts regarding things.

    Do you have expertise in infectious disease? Or are your comments based on your own research?

    No expertise. Google is not research.

    I try to provide links. Here’s a metasearch preprint by authors that tend to be fairly skeptical about serology IFR studies in low prevelance areas. The biggest value in the preprint is that they have expanded their search and the discussion has become more accepting that the wide range of estimates represents that the serology work isn’t advanced enough yet to converge much. On page 14 you’ll see that 2.0% is at high end of most confidence intervals or outside it:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3.article-metrics

    At the other end the .26 is possible but the CDC paper isn’t about IFR. it’s plugging it into scenario exercises without any visible source. Likely a bit low:

    “For one thing, the virus has already killed 0.2 percent of all New Yorkers, and obviously a much higher percentage of those who’ve actually been infected in the city. For another, if we’ve had 100,000 deaths nationwide and a CFR of 0.4 percent, that means we’ve had 25 million symptomatic cases; including cases without symptoms, more than 10 percent of the entire country has been infected, which seems out of sync with what we’re hearing from serology tests. Individual studies and reviews of the evidence tend to put the infection fatality rate somewhere around 0.5 to 1 percent, though there’s at least one dissenting review that puts it lower (while managing not to include any studies finding a fatality rate above 0.5 percent, of which there are plenty)”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/

    Cheers.

  92. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets count:

    McDavid
    Drai
    Nuge
    Kailer
    Kass
    Ennis
    AA
    Sheahan
    Archie
    Nygard
    Haas
    Khaira
    Neal
    Chiasson
    P. Russell

    So, ya, that’s 15 and I would expect Granny and Benson to be the other two.

    My guess is they don’t go with Broberg and bring another forward – potentially Jurco if he’s recovered.

    Well they’ve been talking to Broberg so they’re at least somewhat seriously about it.

    Jurco would make some sense if he’s fully recovered and in shape.

    I wouldn’t mind Broberg either over the depth F options though. Like Godot said, another D COULD be needed.

    17F and 11D is 5 injury replacements each. And you’d certainly rather your D playing 4LW than a F playing 3LD.

  93. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis: It is safe if the proper dosage and timeframe are followed.It’s quite toxic in large doses.

    Most everything is toxic in large doses. That statement can be made about almost every drug. Safe dosages are determined by phase 1 trials. Because dosages no doctor would ever prescribe might will kill you does not make a drug unsafe, or we wouldn’t have many drugs.

  94. meanashell11 says:

    I am so sick of the BS postings regarding covid. Just fucking stop. We do not care. Talk Oilers or fuck off.

  95. Genjutsu says:

    godot10: Most everything is toxic in large doses.That statement can be made about almost every drug.Safe dosages are determined by phase 1 trials.Because dosages no doctor would ever prescribe might will kill you does not make a drug unsafe, or we wouldn’t have many drugs.

    Safe is a relative term.

    Every year over a quarter of a million people in Canada and the USA die from taking prescription medications as directed by their physician.

    If people start self medicating as a proactive treatment their could be a bunch of needless deaths.

    Talk to your doctor.

  96. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: this is long overdue ..The NHL is quite resistant to change. But a pandemic is not FORCING them to think outside the box ….

    1 change that looks like it will come is the Re-seeding after playing and 1st Round. Fans and players have long been asking for this … I do hope it happens that way ..

    Also, after this season, I bet we never see a straight 16 team playoff again. I bet there will be some form of play-ins every year.Might only be 18 or 20 teams, but there will be some excitement about deciding the last few teams for the playoffs..

    With team finances in peril across the league, I’ll be stunned if they don’t expand the playoffs next year.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: Watch Jurco somehow light it up in the playoffs. I had high hopes for him heading into the season (when I say high I hopes, I mean him potentially settling on the 3rd line, with bump ups to second if there were injuries).There’s skill there.

    Lighting it up may be aggressive but he’s got offensive skill and I don’t think he was given a “fair chance” curing camp and early in the season.

    I thought he was clearly showing among the best of the “bubble forwards” but simply couldn’t get any ice with legit NHL players, let alone skill players – was constantly but on tweener lines in the exhibition games.

    If I recall, he got a few games in the top 6, produced early but then tailed off and never really got another shot up the lineup.

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: No expertise. Google is not research.

    I try to provide links. Here’s a metasearch preprint by authors that tend to be fairly skeptical about serology IFR studies in low prevelance areas. The biggest value in the preprint is that they have expanded their search and the discussion has become more accepting that the wide range of estimates represents that the serology work isn’t advanced enough yet to converge much. On page 14 you’ll see that 2.0% is at high end of most confidence intervals or outside it:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3.article-metrics

    At the other end the .26 is possible but the CDC paper isn’t about IFR. it’s plugging it into scenario exercises without any visible source. Likely a bit low:

    “For one thing, the virus has already killed 0.2 percent of all New Yorkers, and obviously a much higher percentage of those who’ve actually been infected in the city. For another, if we’ve had 100,000 deaths nationwide and a CFR of 0.4 percent, that means we’ve had 25 million symptomatic cases; including cases without symptoms, more than 10 percent of the entire country has been infected, which seems out of sync with what we’re hearing from serology tests. Individual studies and reviews of the evidence tend to put the infection fatality rate somewhere around 0.5 to 1 percent, though there’s at least one dissenting review that puts it lower (while managing not to include any studies finding a fatality rate above 0.5 percent, of which there are plenty)”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/

    Cheers.

    Cheers back

    Appreciated

  99. Material Elvis says:

    meanashell11:
    I am so sick of the BS postings regarding covid. Just fucking stop. We do not care. Talk Oilers or fuck off.

    As with any topic, no one is forcing you to read the comments. There’s really no reason to be a jerk about it.

  100. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I don’t know what to think as a fan of hockey with this proposal. It’s of so little concern or interest to most anyone in my circles. Watching sports is always a nice diversion from the day to day.

    – IF they resume practice in mid-July: so hockey playoffs into what September?

    – Then an “off-season”, and new season in say December, or 2021? How long is that season?

    – I get all the economic reasons for playing, and having a product to sell, and millionaire players deisre to get paid, and billionaires getting some, and some semblance of return to sport, and the importance for TV revenues, and the professional sport industrial complex.

    – However, I’d rather a “full season” next year, with hockey starting in October or November rather then two *asterick* seasons

    – Still not certain they can pull off this plan, but maybe things will be better, and we will embrace it

    – But if they do, and Finals are on in the late summer or early Fall, no one but the local markets of the two teams in it will give a darn about it IMO.

  101. Material Elvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The problem with starting a new season in October is the possibility of playing in empty arenas. If they can delay the start of next season, there might be a greater chance of having fans in the stands. Bettman said that they would play a complete season next year, even with a late start.

  102. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Material Elvis:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The problem with starting a new season in October is the possibility of playing in empty arenas.If they can delay the start of next season, there might be a greater chance of having fans in the stands.Bettman said that they would play a complete season next year, even with a late start.

    – Yeah, I guess so. I guess that means a December start, and hockey untill August?

    – Anyway carry on, we wait…

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I don’t know what to think as a fan of hockey with this proposal.It’s of so little concern or interest to most anyone in my circles.Watching sports is always a nice diversion from the day to day.

    – IF they resume practice in mid-July: so hockey playoffs into what September?

    – Then an “off-season”, and new season in say December, or 2021?How long is that season?

    – I get all the economic reasons for playing, and having a product to sell, and millionaire players deisre to get paid, and billionaires getting some, and some semblance of return to sport, and the importance for TV revenues, and the professional sport industrial complex.

    – However,I’d rather a “full season” next year, with hockey starting in October or November rather then two *asterick* seasons

    – Still not certain they can pull off this plan, but maybe things will be better, and we will embrace it

    – But if they do, and Finals are on in the late summer or early Fall, no one but the local markets of the two teams in it will give a darn about it IMO.

    Even if they cancelled the remainder of the 2019/20 season and playoffs today, there is almost no chance they’d start next season in October.

    The league is still focussed on a complete 82 game 2020/21 season with full fans – to the fullest extent possible and they believe they can start as late as mid-late December and complete a full season and playoffs by mid-July with a week buffer prior to the Olympics.

    Trying to get a playoffs in for 2019/20, at this point, has zero effect on the start date of 2020/21.

  104. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Material Elvis: As with any topic, no one is forcing you to read the comments.There’s really no reason to be a jerk about it.

    I agree that the response was harsh, but I get it. Mr Rondo just comes here to drop his take on a subject unrelated to the reason most of us come here.

    There ARE places on the web for that. Not sure why he needs to do this, at least HH varies his subject matter and sometimes talks hockey.

    Freedom of speech, cool.

    Rondo dude, I love you man, you are kinda like family, been seeing you here at LTs place for years, but what do you think about the Oilers play-off match up?

  105. N64 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yeah, I guess so.I guess that means a December start, and hockey untill August?

    – Anyway carry on, we wait…

    October is the start of flu season. We don’t know how strong seasonal effects are but October might be the worst time too start. This year and next summer playoffs night be their best option. A December start lets them delay if needed to catch the backside of a second wave. None of this is certain but that’s all we have on pandemic respiratory viruses

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