I believe the first 30 picks are going to follow a fairly predictable path for the 2020 draft. Even a list like mine, which is a math list, should be able to predict much of the first round. The top players in this draft are obvious.
A year ago, my first round list contained six forwards who weren’t chosen in the first 31 names. These are good players but were passed over for various reasons. Are they progressing?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We rallied and regrouped’: How the Oilers won the 1990 Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto represents ‘Money Puck’ value for NHL teams
- Lowetide: Exploring hidden-gem draft options for the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He set his place in history’: On Bill Ranford’s Conn Smythe run, 30 years later
- Jonathan Willis: Why NHL teams should gamble on defencemen over forwards later in the draft
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ offseason decisions will be influenced by 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland’s likely approach to the Oilers’ offseason goalie question
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland should shop for picks at the draft
- Lowetide: Exploring Oilers prospect Ryan McLeod’s possible NHL path
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ales Hemsky on his health, alumni games, tough opponents and the Oilers’ stars
- Lowetide: Swedish export Noel Gunler offers Oilers a worthy draft target
LOWETIDE’S SIX OVERLOOKED FIRST-ROUND FORWARDS 2019 DRAFT
This is the group and the numbers we were talking about on the second day of the draft (well I was talking about it, you were still discussing Philip Broberg). I liked everyone on this list and four later names (Blake Murray, Samuel Fagemo, Nils Hoglander, Brett Leason) as legit NHL offensive forwards. Remember, this is after the first round, when about 15 forwards with plus offensive potential were taken.
I always like to check and see how these players do in year two, as each year of development post draft is important. You don’t write off a player on the downbeat but it’s worth noting the trends. Here’s draft plus one for the group:
Arthur Kaliyev’s numbers in his draft year were so impressive, couldn’t believe he slipped into the second round. Did he improve? Yes. Yes he did. Nick Robertson absolutely zoomed past the rest of the group, if he does it again people are going to claim they knew he was DeBrincat on draft day. Oilers’ Lavoie has done well in the last two seasons, that’s a strong uptick. We’ll visit this again next year, I bet three of these guys (at least) have NHL careers.
LOWETIDE’S 2020 FIRST ROUND FORWARDS
I have completed the top 75 for my Monday draft list (“Here Comes the Sun 2020”) but will be referring to this list and the first-round forwards for this segment. Not a lot of change but there is some. I believe all of these players will be chosen in the first round:
Now, for the rest of the forwards I have ranked as first rounders. Several will be available early in round two.
If I had to pick six names who will be available early in the second round of the draft, I’ll go with Mysak, Reichel, Foerster, Greig, Foudy and Neighbours. There’s real quality there, Greig is fairly close to Lavoie in quality. There is no Kaliyev likely to fall, of course there shouldn’t have been last year. It would be fabulous to get an early second round selection. If Holland could walk away from the 2020 draft with Bourque (first round) and Greig (second round) the forward pipeline would see significant improvement.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend with a fantastic lineup. At 10:20 Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports will join us to talk about the NHL’s return to play plan, plus some innovations in the broadcasts he’d like to see. Corey Pronman from The Athletic pops in at 10:40 to discuss his final 2020 list (it is here) and some of the true gems of this draft. Matthew Iwanyk will chat about Edmonton as an NHL site for the 2020 playoffs and the race by NA’s major sports to get back on the field/court/ice and into the living rooms of the nation. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. This will be a blast!
More than likely.
I agree with much of what you’ve said and don’t know the prospects well enough to argue Zary’s ranking one way or the other.
Just saying that players generally continue to grow/fill out after age 18. He’s Nuge’s size on draft day. It’s very likely Zary plays at 6’1” 195 when he’s 24, which I believe is average for an NHL forward.
He’s not Yama smallish but that’s Nuge sized. Smaller than the average NHL player. I also think that height is a large advantage in hockey because of reach and leverage. Especially for D.
Players lacking at least height that aren’t plus skaters are rarely top end players. De Brincat is a natural scorer but is an outlier. The Oilers have had plenty of this player type over the years.
The main thing is Zary is quite a good player but I’m not seeing a real corker there. Add in the other things and I’d draft someone else.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
Finley is one of my darkhorses. He’s been a leader everywhere he goes, plays a great 2-way game, more slanted to Dzone starts and still so young, a good FO man and improved on the dot as the season progressed He’s a perfect 3 C IMO. I hope the Oil pick him in the 3rd.
His father is now the Jets as an amateur scout and was chief amateur scout (whatever that means) under Tyler Wright/Ken Holland in Det for a few years. You can bet they know a lot about the young giant.
The Vatanen trade still has a chance to vest (70% of playoff games played) – Vatanen was injured at the trade deadline and has played 0 games for CAR to date
Other than that, the Neal/Lucic trade is an outlier as far as I can see
Interesting. If there are more i think Gary stays away, but yeah If it’s a rifle shot maybe one of the team’s gets a comp. Conditional exchanges would be truly ugly to wade into
I would assume that would be eastern time but neither Gregor nor Daley reached out to me to provide further details.
What time zone
I took a quick look a couple days ago trying to determine how many trades may be affected by the pause
Other than the Oilers/Neal and (maybe) the Vatanen trade, I can’t seem to find another trade wherein the outcome won’t be determined on it’s own once the season restarts
I’m just spitballin’..that fact won’t change the league process or anything
My first impression was that Gary would have teams lined up around the block pleading injustice and seeking redress
I don’t think that’s the case but I’ll keep looking
There is no precedent with what to do with trade conditions in season stopped 85% of the way through due to a world health crisis.
I don’t imagine the Oilers have to give up their 3rd rounder and that’s it.
I don’t imagine the flames get nothing.
Pretty easy solution to the bonus. Pro-rate the performance but no cap implications for next season. Everyone happy but the guy with the wallet I guess.
Yes.
I’m sure it’s a thing.
Minneapolis-St. Paul may also be in the same boat.
~ Can anyone think of a reason that location would be extremely eager to establish a new image? ~
Screw over the Oil is always in season. But for the bonuses the PA and arb gets involved and there is precedent for pro-rata. Whereas trade conditions is a purely internal matter and the default is as written unless Gary or the GMs want to wade in. We wait.
OriginalPouzar,
He was is Sudbury Ontario earlier in the week shooting on a
Young goalie. Sootoday.com
I think the league may use prorating for the Neal/Lucic decision as well
If they start using it for some things, it’s an easy decision to use it whenever necessary based on “precedent” and “consistency” and screw over the Oilers at the same time
In tell-all documentary, doped-fuelled cycling champ Lance Armstrong does not look sorry — 29 May 2020
I know that’s hard for young people to parse these days, but 29 May 2020 is presently TODAY!
We had this thing, once upon a time, called a calendar. This was before we regressed to the Great Sundial in the Electronic Void of “three minutes ago”.
For some reason, I have a mental note about everyone here simply adores Cathal Kelly.
McDavid at risk of becoming another NHL Picasso who paints houses — many thousand dog-years ago (but not nearly enough)
So what does our sage sommelier from the Big Smoke have to say for himself concerning Lance?
The Rise and Sudden Fall of the Houston Astros — 18 January 2020
You don’t think? Hey, why bother with a strike zone and that silly umpire. Just have the batters call their own pitches.
Interestingly, one of the best series I’ve seen on baseball ran on SB Nation recently. It’s pretty much 100% of my sports diet since the lockdown. Just amazingly good in some portions, but I’m sure many people here already know that.
The History of the Seattle Mariners, a Dorktown special — 26 March 2020
I endured a Grammarly.com ad twice to link the complete playlist. Google runs that ad on my feed about twenty times a day.
On my screen right now, where I paused it to cut the URL: clear communication helps. Period at the end, no capital in front. For symmetry I suppose. Underneath these words is a black guy staring straight into my soul from over top of his unbranded Apple product. He’s 24 years old, and he’s clearly never shaved a day in his life. I mean, his cheeks and chin are smooth. Tiger smooth, like on the day he got his very first Sunday-best red shirt under the xmas tree from that player he called “dad”. Like—dude!—did you just wander into the wrong advertisement, because your personal depilatory agent—if you even use one—must be some incredible distillate of termite digestive-fluid harvested from the depths of Amazon rain forest , where the word “Veet” had never yet passed the lips of mankind—at least not while milking the collective posterior ducts of Her Holinesses Charmotermitidae cottonelleus?
Anyway, moving beyond my fixation with the product model, if I could comment on the ad using the YouTube comment facility, I’d tell them to skip sending me the software product altogether (too annoying to install) and simply send me the lapel version and a small mirror for my desk. Here’s how my lapel button would appear in my desk mirror:
+————–+
|__Use. ____|
|__Fewer. __|
|__Words. __|
+————–+
Originally the slogan was this: Omit. Needless. Words.
That seemed clear enough (clarity is such a bitch) until it dawned on them that “what part of ‘needless’ do you not understand?” wouldn’t fit on a comfortable lapel button.
But then when you write it in lowercase like that, it suddenly makes a lot more sense: “omit heedless words”. You’ve got some speck on your screen from the live goldfish you were dipping in black bean sauce to relieve the interminable tedium of social isolation. Now the penny finally drops! The ‘n’ was an ‘h’ all along!
Back to Ken Griffey Jr. and the ill-fated Mariners, the one true rival to triskaidecadarkophobia. I hadn’t mentioned Mr Smooth yet, only somehow it seems like maybe I did. Well, accidents happen, if you’re writing bareback.
So anyways, count me in among those who believe that Griffey maintained an honest dinger to the end of his playing days.
Well, eventually this series has to deal with Griffey putting on one dinger of a season while Sammy Sosa was busy impersonating Saint Skin-So-Soft (hence Griffey got next to no notice while doing so). And the commentator actually says something to the effect that cheating puts the sport into sports. I did not dig that line.
We have a winner! Gold, silver, and bronze—if you want all three! Because the other two guys we recalled to the podium are still in the back alley, throwing up.
Here’s how we’re going to stream our child stars of the future: with blood serology work, to determine which doping agents they can maximally consume without triggering an official drug detection. Because modern sports is all about playing it to the edge, and playing it to the edge is all about having the perfect blood profile not to optimize your oxygen flow, but to cover your tracks with oxygen scavengers.
That guy who used to work for 3M analyzing headlight beam patterns—boy are those regulations ever strict—he’s going to cross over into sports medicine, having accidentally developed exactly the right skillset to best exploit the modern sports era.
And with his fastidious assistance, the next Lance is going to be some guy who dialed his blood thickness up to SAE 90 gear oil and didn’t fry his bearings, blister his lines, or rupture his oil pump before exiting the sauna on his own steam.
2,500 Cubs Fans Polled and One Thing Was Clear: They Want Sammy Sosa Back — 28 May 2020
We Are the Champions as performed by Chicago Deep Dish.
New math? 😉
Not only does Duhatschek have Leon with the Hart, he’s got Coach T. up for the Jack Adams:
https://theathletic.com/1845145/2020/05/29/duhatschek-notebook-expanded-hart-field-dark-horse-cup-picks-and-more/
I’m glad I don’t have a Jack Adams ballot because I would have no logical way of separating the top four: Columbus’s John Tortorella, Philadelphia’s Alain Vigneault, Winnipeg’s Paul Maurice and Edmonton’s Dave Tippett. There are also nuanced arguments to be made on behalf of Pittsburgh’s Mike Sullivan and Vancouver’s Travis Green, among others.
Yes, one of 3 on that corner that are MGM Grand owned I believe.
I wouldn’t be so sure – it would be a major financial incentive and, if Vegas wants the NHL there so bad, and I think they do…..
Not to mention, why so certain the NHLers won’t be allowed to gamble? OEG’s bid has come with dedicated entertainment proposals, such as dedicated golf course, etc.
You never know Bruce – different people like different things…….
It appears Drai does like what most of us consider “attractive” – at least publicly…..
Finally get a chance to say congratulations! I’ve never forgotten the exhausted joy of bringing our two kids home from the hospital. You are going to have a blast!
Correct, however, 5 + 7 + 7 + 7+ 7 = 35 and that would not be.
Personally I hope there are 4 7-game rounds as that is “normal” and, if that’s the case, I’m not on board with the stats from the play-in counting but, really, I can’t get overly fussed about something like this, in particular in this year.
Mandalay Bay Resort is literally across the street from T-Mobile Arena.
It has 3209 guest rooms,
It also has its own 12000 seat arena, a massive convention centre and dozens of restaurants.
I would think it would be the front runner.
I don’t think skating overall is the issue, just speed. He’s probably still fine. He’s also 6’0; not like he’s 5’9.
I’m not arguing where Zary should be drafted, but are you considering a 6′, 180lb 18 year old “smallish”?
Smallish players have to be plus skaters and plus skill.
Yama was considered an excellent skater and had tenacity and skill.
Zary is not that.
I’m not against smallish players, I’m against any player, out of the lottery because extreme skill, that has obvious issues taken first round. Later rounds yes if talent is there.
“Some could be, but others might not. We are working with the PA on this. Unlike the lockouts, when we were on different sides, this time we have been very aligned partners from the start.” Daly on prorating some stats in regard to bonuses. #NHL
Source: Gregor
This is not insignificant for the Oilers vis-a-vis Smith’s bonuses.
Oilers already looking at a cap penalty of over $400K for next year due to bonuses.
jtblack,
Exactly my thoughts on him, though any later than the 3rd might be tough. That being said, there are always droppers.
Casinos offer freebies to gamblers. The hockey crowd won’t be gambling. I doubt free rooms will be part of the package.
Now part of Physics folklore. Las Vegas offered the American Physical Society a deal (the MGM Grand in fact) back in the eighties for their annual conference. Big mistake on the casinos part.
http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2015/09/one-winning-move.html
Strange game
https://youtu.be/MpmGXeAtWUw?t=72
If so we’ll do 24 team playoffs in leap years? #numerology
If LEON DRAISAITL’s gf was unattractive, Earth would stop rotating on its axis.
Zero point zero zero chance of either happening
Skimming through Joe Smith and Sean Shapiro’s piece at The Athletic and it seems many players aren’t quite ready to make plans to return back to their team’s locals to get ready to participate in Phase 2 but what i found really interesting is that the players are given $1500 stipends to make their way back – there isn’t any plans for chartered planes from Sweden or anything like that. At least not now – I wonder if that will change for Phase 3 when players are indeed mandated back for their training camps.
7+7+7+7=28
5+5+5+7+7=29
Seems reasonable.
MGM has submitted a proposal to the NHL to showcase it as a hub city (source: Jesse Grager – The Athletic.
I think the casinos are opening up in early June so, if that doesn’t lead to major negative Covid-related issues, I think they are indeed the/a front-runner.
Who knows if they will be if they offer up something like free hotel rooms, well, that would be a major cost-saver for the league.
If his gf was unattractive, would he have gone back to Europe?
Well, we know the last two rounds will be but, yes, first two rounds still not determined!
Interesting – McKenzie speculating about where Lafreiniere may play this fall if the NHL isn’t playing yet – or the AHL (if he’s even been drafted yet as we don’t know when the draft may be) or CHL.
Speculating about potentially heading to Europe if the European leagues are up and running in the fall.
Just speculation.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
he’s the one player I do not want EDM to pick … and for all the reasons you said.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
“Tristen Robins kinda came outta left field for me but he has some very nice results. 3.04 P1/60, +9.84 relGF%, 3.76 shots/gm, 72% of his points at evens and led his team. Scouting reports make him sound a LOT like Yamamoto. Deceptive skater, surprising physicality, engaged in battles, attacks the net, doesn’t give up or take a night off; kinda strikes me as a mid-round Gallagher candidate! Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 55.”
Sounds like he would be a good choice in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds …..
doritogrande,
geowal says:
May 29, 2020 at 9:14 am
Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl.
doritogrande says:
May 29, 2020 at 12:23 pm
Congratulations. Our first-born came to us the same day Broberg came to the Oilers
vanisleoil says:
…I am sure you fondly remember cuddling your brand new first born when they were burrito wrapped……. a little dorito burrito…..:)
Oh, great, I’m not down a rabbit hole looking at AHL stats – that site is awesome.
Thanks!
~ Music! How can a guy name Mysak not be LT’s pick? On second thought maybe that’s too close to the elevator kind ~
I think he does go in the first round and, as you said, to a team like Ottawa or MTL with their stock of picks.
With the depth of high skilled productive forwards, I don’t think the Oilers can afford to take the risk – yes, the payoff could be huge as he may be a top 10 talent in this draft but the Oilers can’t really afford to not hit on this pick. Show me some Mysak…..
If the imaginable did happen, I think it would be impossible not to pick Lafreniere, however, with Byfield being the better part of a year younger, with that size, speed and skill…… the thought of him an Drai on the same team intoxicates me.
As an Oiler fan with a valid argument that they should be in the Round Robin seeding as oppossed to the play-in (if done by division), I am all-for the fact that, if one of the 8-15 placeholders wins a lottery all of the play-in loses have the exact same odds in lottery 2 – Oiler and Habs would have the same odds!
I got there by not understanding fully how it would work if they lost to Chicago and didn’t win one of the three lotteries.
Thank you to Gerta for the explanation.
Honestly, I probably would still pick him over Zary, though I MIGHT consider Mercer over Bourque (still undecided).
The numbers aren’t a concern with Zary as he’s riding a 3.91 P1/60, a positive relGF, 4.51 shots/gm and overall impressive numbers in pretty much every way. Only mild concern in his stats is that he gets a substantial portion of his offense from the PP, but he’s good enough that I won’t doubt that he’ll get those chances in pro leagues, as well.
My personal concern with him is three-fold:
1.) his skating hasn’t impressed me when I’ve seen it in video. He seems to lack a separation gear that would free him up for the chances his brain seems to get him.
2.) he seems to get a good deal of his shots from less-than-ideal positions/angles. Maybe this is biased by the highlight videos I’ve seen more recently, but he has an inordinate number of wraparounds and odd angle shots. There’s value in volume, but it can feel like it’s too much.
3.) he just doesn’t give me the game-controlling vibe that Bourque and Mercer do. Not everyone has to be a superstar, but I’d rather shoot for a good chance at a great player than a great chance at a good player. Personal preference will vary.
I kinda get a Nuge-ish vibe outta him in that he’s steady and not too flashy but, in my opinion, lacks the high-end offensive vision that makes Nuge the player he is. Also, the early birthday only exacerbates the aforementioned.
Huge Congrats!