The Edmonton Oilers loved to draft kids who attended the combine during the 2010’s. It was a tell for draft nerds like me. Want some facts?
Between 2010 and 2018, 40 of the 70 Oilers draft picks attended the NHL combine. Ken Holland’s Oilers drafted just two of six picks from the 2019 Combine, indicating a possible change in the weather. Or, nothing.
Looking at the first three picks of each draft 2010-2018, 25 of 27 picks ’10-’17 were at the combine (Leon Draisaitl was the only attendee in 2014, meaning William Lagesson and Zach Nagelvoort were the only outliers). That was before the Holland tunnel.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Oilers should protect these 8 skaters in the Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The good, bad and ugly of the Oilers’ last 15 years of free agent signings
- Lowetide: Why you should be worried about William Lagesson’s future in Edmonton
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering the goal that made Fernando Pisani a cult hero in Edmonton
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2016 draft remains an enigma, with a glimmer of hope
- Jonathan Willis: The parallels from the fall of Alexander the Great and the 2006 Oilers
- Lowetide: 5 AHL forwards who offer the Oilers a chance to buy low on real talent
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Agape’: Why Oilers prospect Cooper Marody wrote a song about Colby Cave
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
COMBINE CURIO
On this blog, June 1, 2015, I wrote the following: It’s NHL combine week and there’s plenty of information for fans to sift through. Among the most interesting? WHY are some of these kids invited? The short answer is that NHL teams have requested the outliers, the players who don’t appear on Central’s top 75 and get invited because there’s significant interest. Any NA prospect outside No. 100, or Euro outside top 20, is an intriguing invite.
D Caleb Jones is No. 115NA. He is Seth’s brother, interesting prospect. More of a defensive defender, he’s a mobile player and has average size for the pro game (6.0, 194).
2020 COMBINE LIST
There isn’t one. However, I have my list, and Central Scouting’s, so decided to go through their four lists and find names that didn’t make my list. The only reference to Caleb Jones on my blog previous to the draft is the one above and I like to be thorough. Here goes.
- LW Maxim Beryozkin, Lokomotiv (MHL). A big winger with a fairly complete game.
- RC Ethan Cardwell, Barrie (OHL). A good player, he has goal-scoring ability and spiked after a trade to Barrie.
- LC Tanner Dickinson, SSMarie (OHL). Undersized skill player, reportedly St. Louis Blues, Toronto Maple Leafs, and New York Islanders were most interested in him.
- RD Brock Faber, USNTP (USHL). Solid defender, his scouting report is similar to Philip Kemp.
- LD Wyatt Kaiser, Dubuque (USHL). Promising player, mobile and can play defense.
- RW Alex Laferriere, Des Moines (USHL). Small one dimensional winger with impressive skills.
- LD Christoffer Sedoff, Red Deer (WHL). Big defenseman with some skill, nothing stands out.
- RD Jack Thompson, Sudbury (OHL). Fine skater, good defender, has no dominant skills.
- LD Jacob Truscott, USNTP (USHL). Good puck moving defenseman who can pass and transport.
THE TOUCH LIST
Kevin Lowe used to have a ‘touch list’ of players the team would ponder drafting late each summer, when the main list had dwindled to almost nothing. Based on Tyler Wright’s past, and Ken Holland’s past, I think these players could go to Edmonton later on.
- LC Benjamin Baumgartner, Davos HC (NLA). Small, speedy center is 20 and is mentioned by several sources as a strong sleeper pick. He would be a great later selection for Edmonton.
- LD Jacob Dion, Drummondville (QMJHL). Late breaker, he’s undersized, highly skilled with some chaos. MA Bergeron type, a very impressive player with the puck on his stick.
- LD Anton Johannesson, HV71 (SuperElite). I have him on my final list (No. 104) but he could go later and would be real value in the last three rounds.
SURPRISE FIRST ROUND OPTIONS
Holland taking Philip Broberg early in the first round a year ago suggests to me Oilers fans should be prepared for anything. Yesterday we discussed goalie Yaroslav Askarov as a first-round option, here are some more.
- LD Yan Kuznetsov. He’s a big man already (6.03, 201) and can skate very well. Offensively there isn’t much going on but he’s playing NCAA and that means he isn’t getting a push on the power play. If Holland liked Broberg, and he did, he’ll like Kuznetsov.
- LW Rodion Amirov. Fast winger with skill, numbers haven’t popped yet. I think previous Oilers management had sworn off Russian prospects like I should swear off carbs after the Nail Yakupov Experience, but Holland isn’t in that club.
- LW Brendan Brisson. USHL speed demon with skill, lacks size but Holland has been aggressive about adding speed since he arrived.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, oh my there’s much to discuss. Michael Chandler from The Score will discuss opening day in the EPL, we’ll talk to Wayne’s Sports Cards about a valuable McDavid card and we’re working on a baseball guest who can make sense of it all. As if. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Not sure I’m parsing your comment. I’m saying if Winnipeg is playing in Van that they could avoid 14 day quarantine for their Euros by doing phase 3 in Van. If van hosting then parsimony for public Health makes me expect phase 3 in Van for Calgary and even Edmonton. Not expecting the alternate arrangement to run at multiple locations.
If the OIC is proclaimed by GG we can see it after 3 days. They could hold off on proclamation until host selection in which case they could drop it unprocaimed if not selected
If Edmonton, for example, is chosen as a hub city, I don’t imagine the federal government would allow their “quarantine cohort” apply for players returning to Calgary and Vancouver for their training camps – even Toronto and Montreal (although they would likely be going to the US for their hub and may choose to hold camp in the US).
I did not read that as excluding phase 3. Just limiting the exclusion to host cities. It’s approval of provincially approved site plan so that still leaves Jets and Flames needing to travel to Canadian host for phase 3 (or to US)
Draft philosophy shows through in situations.
Lowetide has had the Oilers past philosophy of drafting ‘coke machines’ / DOA offensive players surrounded for years.
Hey this guy’s a great shut down centre in junior, he’d be perfect in that role on day in the NHL… when his NHLe screams otherwise.
In some cases, you make your run of luck by exploiting inefficiencies.
The Bolts had a great ‘run of luck’ when they realized other teams undervalued undersized players with skill and high offensive upside.
Unfortunately, their luck ran out when other teams caught on.
The Jets always seem to be stone cold killers in the first round.
You look smart drafting by either never looking stupid (Jets 1st rounders from 2011 to 16), or finding impact players outside of the first round in a short span. Point and kucherov in a span of four drafts.
It’s hard to capture, but knowing which direction the league is heading and finding inefficiencies to exploit seems to give teams brief runs of luck.
That and realizing that you’re not looking to draft a cadre of replacement level bottom-pairing defensemen and fourth liners.
I think we read it differently – that’s OK.
I can’t imagine the federal government would all “cohort quarantine” for phase 4 but not phase 3 (and even phase 2) which will have protocols as strict as phase 4, I’m sure.
Thanks. That’s totally fair and I can’t disagree.
Ya, its not going to be easy to figure out the logistics, that’s for sure – it does need to be figured out though – the CHL and AHL simply skipping a year would create so many issues.
With that said, October is almost 4 months away and the end of December over 6 months away.
It seems like we’ve been dealing with this pandemic in North America forever but its only been 4 months.
Lots or progress can be made in the time frame – here is hoping.
Perhaps the article is misleading but it’s framing the order in Council around hosting right down to the quoted letter . I’d be surprised if an order in Council would approve anything other than the 3 hub proposals referred to throughout.
Nothing substantive – just the passage of more time and getting past the “normal flu season”.
Sorry, how did you come to that conclusion from reading the article?
While it didn’t expressly say the “cohort quarantine” would be available for Phase 3/training camps, it didn’t say that it wouldn’t. There was very little details in article except that “cohort quarantine” would be available.
I would infer that it would be extended to phase 3 and training camps for logistics.
Am I missing something.
No, I mean they’re big good skaters who are obscure offensively. Just as the SHL doesn’t reveal offense (Klefbom an example) teenagers in the NCAA are miles from the game states that offer offense to defensemen. Kuznetsov may be a fine two-way D who scores 30+ points in the NHL someday.
I’m saying, as is the case with Broberg, we can’t see it from here. Scouts may see something in him.
Listened to an Interview with Vancouver Giants owner Ron Toigo today in which he says that, with current social distancing in effect, there is no way the teams can operate because they won’t be able to accommodate enough fans to make it worthwhile.
He also mentioned that getting fans in and out of arenas before and after games would be a huge issue that no one has solved.
OriginalPouzar,
What do you think will change between Oct and Dec to allow the fans in the stands?
As expected the acceptance of cohort quarantine by the feds is limited to host cities not for training camps. Canadian teams playing in us hub will need to train in us to avoid 14 day quarantine before training camp
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-federal-government-canada-hub-city-1.5618558?cmp=rss
LT, I really like that ‘Touch List’ of potential later picks.
Benjamin Baumgartner. He had a Gaetan Haas like season in the Swiss league at age 19.
Jacob Dion. MAB-type indeed. 5′ 9″ but 181 so he’s sturdy and looks to have lots of skill.
Anton Johannesson. 154 lbs is scary small for a D. But agree the production is tough to ignore. 20-8-16-24 in the Swedish U20 league. I think he scored at the best rate of all D in that league at age 17. Impressive.
Those 3 look very worthy of a pick somewhere after 100.
I’m less sure on the “Surprise First Rounders”. Just Yan Kuznetsov really, and “If Holland liked Broberg, and he did, he’ll like Kuznetsov.”
I guess you mean that both are big, good skaters and shy offensively? I don’t really see the parallel. It seems that Kuznetsov is very much a stay at home, defence first kind of player where Broberg is all over the ice and potentially lacking hockey sense (as his only question mark really). I’m not sure Broberg-Kuznetsov is a good comparison (I hope it’s not, I guess). I think Broberg’s offensive/complete D potential is far far higher though. I could very well be wrong of course, but I see very different players there!
Anyway, really liked the players you highlighted aside from Kuznetsov.
Sure but I would consider that the most minor of all advantages, if it even is one, and a non-factor when deciding on which teams play where.
I mean, i presume the Canucks, flames, Knights, etc. no the ice and boards at Rogers Place well enough and will certainly after having two exhibition games in the arena prior to the play-in round.
In theory, the COVID situation in the hub shouldn’t really matter as the players, staff, etc. should be fully cut off from general society.
Of course, perception of going to place where COVID isn’t as under control would not be good.
Not to mention, in practice, there will still be risk – such as (a) players not following rules and leaving the quarantine bubble or (b) while I’m sure some hotel, broadcast crew, restaurant, amenity staff will be required to be kept in the quarantine bubble, I can’t imagine ALL will so there will be some coming out of the bubble and back in – presumably those without direct contact with players.
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What Vegas can do that other options cannot, is create the higher end amenities within the quarantine bubble – the hotel itself is a resort with clubs and activities – no, outsiders will not be allowed in, but still.
The home team is accustomed to the ice. The bounces off the boards are also very important in close games and or series. Sometimes the small thing can be the difference in a close game and or series.
It’s a good thing that the Canucks have Brogan Rafferty who floats all boats!?
As previously advised, the WHL is currently planning a Norma 2020/21 season with a full 68 games starting in early October.
The league is stating that, of course, that is subject to change but it’s what they are working towards and no team will be “left behind” – that means they need to ensure everything is ready to go on 4 provinces and two states.
They said fans in the stands is key and their current threshold is ability to have at least half capacity or else they can’t start.
For me, doesn’t seem feasible for October and I think the CHL leagues and the AHL will start when the NHL does – with some semblance of fans around December or so.
Perhaps a new GM? Trying to fill a very lucky pair of shoes.
Stats show there is no magic, just runs of luck. No team has sustained superior drafting. More to the point is some have had biases that prevented good drafting: see Oilers for a loooong time.
What matters is making the best decisions based on what’s available and how the league is moving in terms of most suitable players, and hope for the best.
OriginalPouzar,
Thanks JJS for asking the question and OP for the reply
~ What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas ~
Only somewhat related to the Oilers because Andersson has been brought up as part of a Puljujarvi trade for a while but Lias Andersson has refused an invitation from the Rangers to come to training camp in July and be on their post-season roster.
He says he wants to be a Ranger but doesn’t want to leave home to come back at this stage.
It’s interesting the the Rangers asked him to come as he refused and assignment to the AHL in November and has been suspended and playing in the SHL since. He has done well this season on the SHL.
Source: Larry Brooks
Our host may ban you for this post…….
Brian Burke spoke to the number of scouts on Oilers Now today – it was an interesting read about how it involved to have specific scouts for various different countries and leagues.
Frankly, having a deep pocketed owner who is willing to spend on things like numerous specific scouts should provide that team with an advantage.
As you say, teams draft 7 players and 2-3 make it.
Well, it a team is able to improve that to 3-4 making it, that is a major boost to the org.
I do see teams potentially trying to save expenses by narrowing down their scouting staff – teams that don’t do that and maybe even increase, should have an advantage.
Go Katz!
Players have received their compensation (well, still not sure if they are taking their last cheque – they keep deferring the decision).
What the players received, in aggregate, represents apx 50% of what revenues were projected for this coming year.
Of course, revenues are going to be vastly reduced due to loss of regular season games, loss of gate revenue for playoff games etc.
Playing the “summer post-season tournament” will create some revenue for the 2019/20 season but it will also “create revenue” for the 2020/21 season because they will be able to fulfill certain regional TV agreements – without fullfilling them, they would roll over to next year and the league wouldn’t receive revenue next year from the contracts.
That’s just one example of revenue.
———-
As far as escrow, a certain percent of each player cheque is held back and put in escrow until the season ends. If revenues come in lower than projected, the players will “owe the owners money” and a portion of the money heldback in escrow will go to the owners. There is a set amount of escrow but, each off-season the players can increase escrow in order to increase the cap for that year.
Given the players have received compensation that is going to be much greater than half of actual hockey related revenues for 2020/21 all of the escrowed money will go to the owners and it still won’t be enough to make the owners “whole”.
That will likely lead to increased escrow for a while – in particular since future revenues won’t be enough to sustain an $80MM plus cap but the cap will be artificially inflated – the players just won’t get all of the contract money.
but, but, but, Yamamoto shot 25%……..
Difference between Boucher and Goldobin and Samorukov – the former two are essentially ending their relationship with the Canucks and taking their careers down a different path whereas Sammy is heading to the KHL for one year because the AHL is in flux for the fall and he can get legit playing and development time in an elite league.
As posted a few days ago, the AHL has formed an extensive Return to Play task force that includes many NHL GMs (Holland included) among others.
I anticipate the league will start in some form along with the NHL.
You are right though – AHL veterans and non-real prospects are likely to head to Europe in droves with the AHL’s 2020/21 season in flux – they need to play to live.
Reid Boucher is an RFA after the current season. So they’re only letting him out of his contract for the playoffs, where he probably wouldn’t have been a participant anyway.
Him deciding to go to the KHL *could* be related to the health of the AHL but I don’t think we can read much into the Canucks plans for Utica from this…
I believe the Oilers were 6th in the NHL in 2020 – that includes, i believe, 7 games without McDavid.
What is the home ice advantage, except maybe their dressing room? Its not like the players are leaving the bubble to go home at night or will have the energy from the fans, etc.
Per LeBrun (The Athletic):
– an extension of the CBA has become so intertwined with Return to Play logistics and negotiations that a Memorandum of Understanding in respect thereof is likely to be labelled with the Return to Play document in the next 10 days or so
* That would be AMAZING!
– on recent NHLPA calls with players (any player can join), lots of questions on life in the hubs, etc. but many also had questions on the CBA extension as they want to know the future economics before they agree to return
– momentum for the final return to play to include an “opt out” for player that aren’t comfortable playing
– on potential CBA idea is to freeze the salary cap and cap escrow at 20% for this year and next and to carry the overage until its made up. Potential salary deferral included.
– an extension of the CBA would, of course, include a full member vote but its still unclear if Return to Play (phase 3 and 4) will require a full vote or just the 31 execs
– multiple NHL and NHLPA members have said that Toronto is not any more of a frontrunner than Vancouver or Edmonton for a hub and there is a definite possibility to have both hubs in the west. The league would prefer one in the East or Central time zone but safety is still first criteria. Decision likely next week.
https://theathletic.com/1880977/2020/06/18/lebrun-nhls-return-still-on-track-for-summer-amid-cba-and-hub-city-questions/
Why not reward a good soldier like Reaves.
WARNING – Before you click the link of read the article, the allegations are EXTREMELY disturbing.
Dan Carcillo and Garrett Taylor have launched a class action lawsuit against the CHL, QMJHL, WHL and OHL
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/more-explosive-and-shocking-allegations-against-junior-hockey-in-newly-filed-lawsuit
http://sinbin.vegas/reaves-scores-in-contract-negotiations-on-vgk-again/
Interesting take on Reaves contract. Vegas knew they could play hard ball but didn’t and gave Reaves a fair contract
Giving Edmonton and Pittsburgh home ice advantage seems like a good way to make up for screwing them by not giving them playoff births in my very unbiased opinion
The Pegulas were not stingy. They spent lots of money on free agents. The GM’s chose all the wrong ones.
What the NHL should do is have the family members in the bubble each take a side in the stands or even better only allow the home team family members in the stands. You have a hundred angry family members heckling the other team or swaying a decision in reffing that home ice usually gets would be must see TV for me.
Just don’t see hockey playing out well for a lot of fans in August after viewing the first few games with no fans in the stands interest may be lost. Have you ever watched a intense scrimmage it’s good hockey but hockey desperately needs fans in the stands.
Listening to McKenzie and Duthie and McKenzie advised:
– if players test positive over the next little while, as cases spike in many US areas, chances are the public won’t be advised as to which team, let alone which player(s) – just that there have been a positive test.
– players are indeed expressing concern over return – both regarding real health risk and logistical arrangements – its a minority but a vocal minority. Its tough to answer many of their questions on logistics as they haven’t been worked out. There is a chance that the final agreement will expressly allow for players to choose to simply not come back if they have (legit) concerns.
– probably will know next week on hub cities but the NHL has a real preference for a team not to play in its home city. Its just a preference but a strong preference. He did say there is a chance that both hubs will be in the West (i.e. Vegas and Edmonton or Vancouver) which would make it impossible to avoid.
I might see Hawks in 5 if they had Lehner. Crawford doesn’t get rattled but his best is behind him.
Way the Hawks were playing if the playoffs started right when the pandemic hit I very well might pick them.
But we’ve never seen a jump into playoffs like this and I have to assume it’s going to be easier for young legs to get back into game shape. McDavid will be destroying ankles left and right.
For me it’s just tradition, one article I read it states in short. It is wrong theoretically. It is a cardinal principle of baseball that every member of the team should both field and bat . Hard to argue with that.
I wonder if Buffalo will adopt the Carolina model under Dundon.
They reduced their amateur scouting staff and invested in a four person analytics department under Eric Tulsky.
I would think Ralph would be good with that.
I was wondering about that number. 21 scouts.
A year ago or so , I looked at publicly available lists of team scouts for teams that draft well like the Bolts.
Back then, most teams had about seven scouts listed on their team page.
Just looked now and the Bolts have 18 people listed as having a role in scouting.
I wonder what’s changed? More transparency or more scouts?
If we want to know who Holland will pick in the first round, why not just go ask him? Its not like he will keep it a secret.
I said skating would be taking place by the end of May and was close. Now I think butts in the stands by October.
And I am putting in a resume to Buffalo. I used to sell raffle tickets at the rink.
I’ve always wondered are the pro scouts solely in charge of evaluation pro players in a talent/value basis or do they scout teams out for tactics/deployment? Obviously the buck stops with the coach on how he handles a game but 30 other teams is a lot to keep track of.
Theres systematic changes they can make concerning the outlets and coverage but even on the player to player level theres scouting that can be done. One instance from this season is the Kassian hit on Mackinnon, could have just been a good hit but MacKnnon does that fast stop along the boards quite frequently.
Or would this fall under a different role/team?
Anyone with a decent track record will avoid Buffalo like the plague. Meddling owner, doesn’t want to pay money for top talent, hires an inexperienced GM three times in a row. I’m sure Brackett will have better options.
As a fair weather baseball fan could you explain the DH difference more for me? Was it just culture/tradition thats been passed down through the years?
I’ve always thought it was odd and have easily noticed most pitchers are awful hitters.
Like, does a team really need 21 scouts? Two in Europe, three scouting the CHL and USHL, and another two doing pro ….
Seems math and public information along with an executive who understands analytics can do the job with high efficacy in relation to a bloated payroll.
I mean a team drafts 7 players per year, and 2 or 3 make it. If you used Central Scouting’s list and have a strong development infrastructure you’ll produce NHL players.
From a pro scouting perspective, even a ardent fan (not to mention an NHL’s executive team) have enough info to know what a good or bad trade looks like. Whoever in Buffalo said “our problem is we need to get bigger and more physical” and traded for Wayne Simmonds has made my argument.