Draft 2020: Speed and Skill

by Lowetide

What do the Edmonton Oilers need in the offseason, or more to the point, what do the Oilers need most? Is it more important for the team to add winger Jesse Puljujarvi to a group that includes Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian, Andreas Athanasiou, Alex Chiasson, James Neal, Josh Archibald, Joakim Nygard, Tyler Benson and Jujhar Khaira? Or is it better to trade Puljujarvi for a draft pick?

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THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

MCKENZIE VS. LOWETIDE

Mostly agreement between Mr. McKenzie and my list, the three players in his first round not in mine rank 32, 33 and 34. He excluded Jan Mysak (I had him at No. 20, McKenzie has him No. 34); Jérémie Poirier (21 from me, 33 on BM) and Martin Chromiak (31 versus 75) in the first round. Lots of agreement early in this draft.

Jesse Puljujarvi

The day Ken Holland traded for Andreas Athanasiou, I thought it might be a swap for Jesse Puljujarvi. AA is acquired for two two’s, JP gets traded for a second and something else. That’s how I see it. I’d endorse it but Puljujarvi might be useful next season if he signs. I would try to sign him up to draft day, and then deal him.

For our purposes here, I’m going to assume the Hurricanes acquire Puljujarvi for the NYR second (No. 47). I understand many of you believe he’s worth more, but for our purposes we’ll proceed since this exercise is for giggles. I’m going to assume the Oilers retain the third rounder from the Neal trade. Here’s the mock, running McKenzie’s list against mine for as far as we can.

No. 20 overall. RC Mavrik Bourque. Red Line compares him to Travis Konecny, creative center with a great deal of energy and effort. Undersized, good skater. If he’s available when the Oilers pick, strong chance he’s best player available.

No. 47 overall. LW Martin Chromiak. Skilled winger with good wheels, he’s creative and finds ways to create chances. He came out of nowhere and closed strong at the end of the season. He’s an August 2020.

No. 82 overall. RW Connor McClennon. Numbers are solid to excellent. Undersized, range of skills. June 2002, scouting reports have him as a perimeter player. He is mid-second on my list.

No. 144 overall. LW Veeti Miettinen. Undersized winger, fills the net with pucks. I had him No. 48.

No. 175 overall. RW Pavel Novak, WHL. Speedster with skill, he’s a scorer. I have him No. 49.

You might think it’s unusual to have my list grab five of the top 50, but that’s the nature of a math list. You’re looking for skill only. I’d draft this way every year. Here’s the 2015 list versus McKenzie’s list:

No. 1 overall. C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) All our trials, lord, soon be over.  

No. 117 overall. C Andrew Mangiapane, Barrie (OHL) Brilliant offensive player.

No. 124 overall. D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Mobile defender, very good shot.

No. 154 overall. C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Wide range of skills, undersized.

No. 208 overall. L Dmytro Timashov, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Explosive winger with crazy numbers.

No. 209 overall. L Erik Foley, Cedar Rapids (USHL) Tough winger has offensive ability. I had him No. 55 overall on my list.

The Oilers did a very nice job on their own in 2015, wonder what the scouts would have managed with the complete set of picks. Here are the NHLE’s:

This represents a fantastic series of bets in one draft. I do think Craig MacTavish figured out the draft. His 2013 draft involved a spectacular moneypuck trade flurry and he won Leon Draisaitl the following year. Interesting to contemplate how he would have handled 2015. MacT: “We can acquire role players by other means. If you draft somebody who’s inadequate in maybe speed or size but has some skill, maybe he can improve in those areas and offer significant skill that can move the dial of your team.”

I cheat for offense and speed on my list now, but that quote is from several years ago.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a fine show with great guests. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will talk about the draft lottery and possible cost to Detroit and Ottawa if another team wins the lottery. Ryan Rishaug from TSN will update on the hub city race and discuss the state of negotiations between the NHL and PA. We are also reaching out to John Horn to talk tennis, stay tuned for an update. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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jp

OriginalPouzar: I know that shot metrics are more predictive when small sample sizes are being used but, “he was only a drag in goals”, well, goals are the most important stat, really the only one that ultimately matters.

Yes, goals are what matters, of course. The point was that the underlying numbers, which as you say are very often more predictive than goals themselves, tell a different story than the goals do (hence “only goals”, but not the other measures say Neal-McDavid were bad).

If you believe shot metrics are more predictive in small sample sizes then I’m not sure why you’d say no way James Neal can be on McDavid’s wing given their results…

OriginalPouzar

jp: Neal was a drag in goals only. Neal actually had the best SF%, best xGF% and worst PDO with McDavid of any linemate to play more than 54 minutes with McDavid (Nygard had better rates in 53 minutes).

The 54+ minute group includes (in order of minutes) Kassian, Draisaitl, Neal, Archibald, Chiasson, Gagner, Ennis, Nuge. OLH mentions similar.

I won’t argue Neal SHOULD be with McDavid but I definitely don’t think it needs to be avoided like the plague. The goal numbers may well be just bad luck.

I know that shot metrics are more predictive when small sample sizes are being used but, “he was only a drag in goals”, well, goals are the most important stat, really the only one that ultimately matters.

jp

OriginalPouzar: It was previously reported that the organization was thinking of bringing him over for the post-season but now it sounds like they have made that decision.

I’m not sure I would even consider Broberg the 11D – the chances of him playing are, essentially, zero.

Samorukov would likely be a better option if that 11th D actually had to play.

If the team has 5D out, well, its probably not looking good.

Yes, just meant that it didn’t come out of nowhere.

For sure the # 11D isn’t likely to play. And if he does that’s not a good sign. Still, if you were going to pick what you *might* need, #11D is more important than #18F (acknowledging that neither should ever get in a game). 5F need to be out to call on the #18F too.

Samorukov could be the better option but Broberg is clearly the future. And the two were playing pretty comparable roles in pretty comparable pro leagues this year (sheltered depth D).

Injury-wise, Klefbom tends to miss 1/4 games, Larsson missed half of this season, Benning and Russell both missed time with concussions this year and Green has never been able to stay healthy. These Oilers D aren’t exactly iron men.

jp

OriginalPouzar:

1) That first line was not good enough this year. James Neal was a major drag on McDavid. That line, as a trio, in 90 minutes, were 45% in goals percentage. Remove James Neal and McDavid/Kass were 56%. McDavid and Neal without Kassian were below 40%.

No way can James Neal be on McDavid’s wing given this season’s results.

Neal was a drag in goals only. Neal actually had the best SF%, best xGF% and worst PDO with McDavid of any linemate to play more than 54 minutes with McDavid (Nygard had better rates in 53 minutes).

The 54+ minute group includes (in order of minutes) Kassian, Draisaitl, Neal, Archibald, Chiasson, Gagner, Ennis, Nuge. OLH mentions similar.

I won’t argue Neal SHOULD be with McDavid but I definitely don’t think it needs to be avoided like the plague. The goal numbers may well be just bad luck.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Well, to be fair, in 2014, not having a 2nd or 3rd rounder vastly reduces the chances of multiple NHL players and, to me, Laggeson in the 4th round is a successful pick.He’s a proven depth NHL player and, to me, likely and every day 3LD if given the opportunity.

Also, Slepyshev is highly likely an NHL player.He was, or was darn close, when he left and has, from various accounts, matured as a player. I was stoked when I thought he was coming back.

NHL player is a wide description.

Like 100 games as a measurement.

Some players don’t want to be bottom 6 players which is what Slepy likely would be and from his angle his future in the league.

Top 6 at home in a good league and kudos or chase the top league dream?

It’s not for everybody.

I think JP likely fits there.

Optimism is like heroin

OriginalPouzar,

Fair enough, if I may however the sample size on the trio of kass, mcd and neal is only 89 minutes so small sample size here. They did however post some nice corsi with a 62% share of high danger corsi with a on ice save % of .864. The other side of this line is we need to stop using buyouts that just make the future more difficult. If benson pops then sure move Neal to 4LW and PP time.

point 2 ….. yah wow that was a dumb one. Nygard is who i meant and you are absolutely correct here.

point 3 2 Lefties isn’t ideal for sure. If Russel can be moved for anything then fantastic you do that. I just don’t see it happening. This way Benning can be moved for picks and there is some cap room to find a back up.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t understand why there is no doubt that Puljuarvi is an NHL player today but, seemingly, doubt that Slepyshev is an NHL player today.

I would posit that Slepyshev’s most recent season in the KHL was more impressive than Puljujarvi’s most reason season in Liiga.

Of course, age and future runway for further development are not similar but the conversation was about which players drafted are NHLers.

I never said anything about MacT’s overall drafting record – you posited two NHLers out of those two year and I think there are four (and if one isn’t willing to put Slepyshev on that list then I don’t think one can go on to say the Puljujarvi is a for sure NHL player today).

Kinger_Oil.redux

OriginalPouzar: Honest question – may i ask why there is no doubt Jesse is an NHL player today but Slepyshev didn’t make your list of NHL players from his draft year?

– Because there is no doubt that Jessie is an NHL player today, and he’s 21.

– Vs. Sleppy last played in the NHL 3 years ago, he’s 26, he’s signed to the KHL, played 100 games of very replacable hockey: he’s not better than he was 3 years ago.

– My take is to not give the organizaiton credit for 3 NHL players over 16 picks in 2 years. And Jessie wasn’t drafted under that regime: I don’t get it:

– Do you think that MacT did a good job in so far as drafting is somethin that you rate GMs on? I think his drafting was poor. Do you? Or are you simply hung up on the classification of a player who is not in the NHL? It’s poor draft result IMO, include Sleppy if it makes you feel better. Jessie, he’s not part of the discussion of MacT’s draft results: I don’t get it.

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
ArmchairGM,

– Yeah, you did a good job on this, Thanks.George also provided some good context.There is no doubt that Jessie is an NHL player today.A 2nd is 5 years out

– As a fan of the Oilers, we should all rather Jessie not play again in the NHL than trade him a 2nd, which is likely no help but will take 5 years to figure that out, as per your post. Math don’t lie

– Bad teams trade NHL players for magic beans

Honest question – may i ask why there is no doubt Jesse is an NHL player today but Slepyshev didn’t make your list of NHL players from his draft year?

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– I was curious, and looked up MacT as GM:

2013: Nurse was a solid pick @ 7, as were the next few.Roy, Sleppy, Yakimov, Plazter: 10 picks, 1 NHLer: Fail Big time IMO: the Belechik move down draft concept was sound, execution brutal

2014: Drai @ 3 was a massive win for sure: Lagesson, maybe 7th NHL D, 7 years after draft, Nagevool, Vesel, Couglin: Fail, but Drai massive

– So in two years, 16 draft picks: Nurse and Drai good, the rest, awful.MacT as GM who figured out drafting: not so much IMO.2 a year is good.

– My guess is the 2015 draft was mostly inspired by the Bruins list.Just as the 2019 was mostly inspired by Detroit’s.Certainly they both deviated from tradional Oiler picks.

Well, to be fair, in 2014, not having a 2nd or 3rd rounder vastly reduces the chances of multiple NHL players and, to me, Laggeson in the 4th round is a successful pick. He’s a proven depth NHL player and, to me, likely and every day 3LD if given the opportunity.

Also, Slepyshev is highly likely an NHL player. He was, or was darn close, when he left and has, from various accounts, matured as a player. I was stoked when I thought he was coming back.

N64

JimmyV1965: Ya. Those figures really surprised me. Gets my spidey senses tingling for sure.Either they have done a much better job protecting elderly people and overall hospitalization has dropped dramatically, or the virus has mutated. Can’t think of another explanation, although there certainly could be.

Another scenario is that the recent jump in younger cohort transmission hasn’t had time to slop over to vulnerable seniors YET. Senior homes likely more protected than months ago but at as background rises harder to keep it out over time.

Jaxon

Looking at the first round and where many people have the to 4 WHL players ranked (generally in the 13th to 21st range), I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland grabs a WHL player. C/RW Seth Jarvis, C Connor Zary, LHD Kaiden Guhle, or RHD Braden Schneider. One or more of them will fall to the late first round. I think they’d all be solid picks.

jp

Scungilli Slushy: That depends on how context is considered.

As a winger being Kurri to Gretzky yes.Meaning being the defensive conscience and scoring then yes.

If scoring less and being Bergeron, that may have more team and playoff success value.

Context is everything when looking at anything.

Yeah but we know Nuge is not Bergeron. At all. So excelling in the Kurri role is a huge plus.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Aside from this being reported previously it kinda makes sense to have 11D and 17F rather than 10D/18F.

It was previously reported that the organization was thinking of bringing him over for the post-season but now it sounds like they have made that decision.

I’m not sure I would even consider Broberg the 11D – the chances of him playing are, essentially, zero.

Samorukov would likely be a better option if that 11th D actually had to play.

If the team has 5D out, well, its probably not looking good.

Kinger_Oil.redux

ArmchairGM,

– Yeah, you did a good job on this, Thanks. George also provided some good context. There is no doubt that Jessie is an NHL player today. A 2nd is 5 years out

– As a fan of the Oilers, we should all rather Jessie not play again in the NHL than trade him a 2nd, which is likely no help but will take 5 years to figure that out, as per your post. Math don’t lie

– Bad teams trade NHL players for magic beans

Scungilli Slushy

jp: This is great stuff. Thanks for posting again.

Awesome the value of a second round pick as a strong player is not good. Which is why GMs are trying to do what Holland is rejecting, and why he wants a good prospect and a low odd pick back.

Good GMing IMO

OriginalPouzar

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: If you aren’t Nuge’s agent, you sure as hell should be.

On that note, Holland best get the Nuge extension done prior to that 100 point season commencing.

Seems the “new July 1” will likely be November 1 – start of free agency and new technical last year of expiring multi-year deals.

OriginalPouzar

Optimism is like heroin:
Jessewhat a sh#t show so far in his NHL career.

but i still have a lot of hope with him.In regards to next years roster it will be better with him on it at qualifying numbers.
neal-mcD-kass does well enough
rnh-drai-yamma needs no introduction
khaira-AA-Pulju provides an offensive 3rd line to run against lesser competition with JJ taking draws and giving a solid def winger.
jurco-sheahan-archie have all proven useful

klef-lars been good for a few years
nurse-bear here is hoping bear doesnt regress
jones-krussel kris isnt getting traded

scratches being chia, haas and lagesson.

most contenders from this year are going to be in tough to maintain the rosters while we will be better than the start of 19-20.

Sorry, with respect, I can’t agree with alot in there.

1) That first line was not good enough this year. James Neal was a major drag on McDavid. That line, as a trio, in 90 minutes, were 45% in goals percentage. Remove James Neal and McDavid/Kass were 56%. McDavid and Neal without Kassian were below 40%.

No way can James Neal be on McDavid’s wing given this season’s results.

2) Nygard has a roster spot (and a lineup spot) over Jurco – who may be re-signed but needs to work his way on the team.

3) Russell may not be traded – I’m sure Holland will give it his best shot but you may be right. Even if that’s so, I don’t think they will go with two lefties on the third pairing. Jones has proven to be much better on his left side at the NHL level and Rusty on his right side is no longer an option. Rusty would be in the press box with Benning (Green) on the right side subject to major Jones regression.

N64

Glovjuice: My guess (and now somewhat proven I think) is that the virus is not exactly the same in all regions). As such, different pathogenicity, and therefore different severe outcomes. Also, probably more obesity and other comorbidities in Dallas area (although, not different enough to account for the dramatic difference). NOTE: I am not a virologist.

One other theory is that when people get multiple exposures in crowded settings viral load may influence severity.

Scungilli Slushy

jp: Found his niche indeed. Really impressive.

RNH as a 90-100 point winger IS more valuable than as a 50-60 point C. Hopefully Holland locks him up in the offseason before he’s an actual top 10 scorer.

That depends on how context is considered.

As a winger being Kurri to Gretzky yes. Meaning being the defensive conscience and scoring then yes.

If scoring less and being Bergeron, that may have more team and playoff success value.

Context is everything when looking at anything.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I was curious, and looked up MacT as GM:

2013: Nurse was a solid pick @ 7, (as were the next few). Roy, Sleppy, Yakimov, Plazter et al: 10 picks, 1 NHLer: Fail Big time IMO: the Belechik move down draft concept was sound, execution brutal

2014: Drai @ 3 was a massive win for sure: Lagesson, maybe 7th NHL D, 7 years after draft, Nagevool, Vesel, Couglin et al: Fail, but Drai massive

– So in two years, 16 draft picks: Nurse and Drai good, the rest, awful. MacT as GM who figured out drafting: not so much IMO. 2 a year is good.

– My guess is the 2015 draft was mostly inspired by the Bruins list. Just as the 2019 was mostly inspired by Detroit’s. Certainly they both deviated from tradional Oiler picks.

jp

ArmchairGM: Jesse has a FAR greater chance of becoming a top-6 player than a 2nd. Here’s an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of a mid-first round pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi’s chances of becoming a top player? I’ll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I’m not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn’t written yet), and I’m ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old’s who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O’Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became “top” players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you’re left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse’s 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I’m not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became “top” NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 – 7 pick in an average draft. I’m not going to say he’s worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don’t think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There’s a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he’s far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.

This is great stuff. Thanks for posting again.

Glovjuice

oilersfan:
N64,

That is so bizarre considering that in Alberta the amount of cases hospitalized under 50 is 2%.

How can Dallas be at 50%?! Unless 90% of all the cases are people under 50 and there are only 40 people hospitalized , 20 of them under 50…

My guess (and now somewhat proven I think) is that the virus is not exactly the same in all regions). As such, different pathogenicity, and therefore different severe outcomes. Also, probably more obesity and other comorbidities in Dallas area (although, not different enough to account for the dramatic difference). NOTE: I am not a virologist.

jp

ArmchairGM: Interesting. I did some research on Nuge as a winger recently and came up with this:

5v5 P/60, 2018-19 + 2019-20, over 1000 minutes TOI with McDavid or Draisaitl, Nuge scored 2.80 P/60. You know where that puts him? Here’s a list of the top-10 wingers based on 5v5 P/60 over the past 2 years:

Kucherov: 3.21 P/60
Panarin: 3.02
Marchand: 2.83
* Nugent-Hopkins: 2.80 *
Kane: 2.72
Guentzel: 2.71
Pastrnak: 2.70
Tatar: 2.63
Kubalik: 2.59
Marner: 2.58

That’s elite scoring. Plus he’s very good at killing penalties and of course he’s a powerplay witch.

Maybe he’s found his niche.

*****
For reference, this year Nugent-Hopkins spent about 56% of his 5v5 TOI as a winger, mostly for Draisaitl but some with McDavid too. Here is his “winger only” production lined up with all NHL players with 250+ minutes played:

Nugent-Hopkins: 3.51 P/60 (512 minutes)
Malkin: 3.43 (805)
Panarin: 3.28 (1079)
Yamamoto: 3.16 (418)
Marchand: 3.05 (906)
Kucherov: 3.01 (958)
Stamkos: 2.96 (769)
Pastrnak: 2.92 (985)
MacKinnon: 2.90 (1075)
Draisaitl: 2.89 (1163)
McDavid: 2.84 (1055)

That’s incredible production over a fairly large sample size. I’m looking forward to seeing RNH score 100 points next season as a full-time winger.

Found his niche indeed. Really impressive.

RNH as a 90-100 point winger IS more valuable than as a 50-60 point C. Hopefully Holland locks him up in the offseason before he’s an actual top 10 scorer.

jp

OriginalPouzar:
Whoa – Mattheson reporting that the Oilers do plan on inviting Broberg to come over for camp on July 10th (and be with the team throughout, obviously).

It will be interesting to see if he comes.I think he will even though this may conflict with the start of his SHL season (=the SHL starts on September 19 so I anticipate camp around the end of August – hopefully the Oilers are still playing)

We know that he was going to be coming to normal training camp in September and then head back over to Sweden and that would have definitely conflicted with the start of the SHL season.

Aside from this being reported previously it kinda makes sense to have 11D and 17F rather than 10D/18F.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

ArmchairGM: Interesting. I did some research on Nuge as a winger recently and came up with this:

5v5 P/60, 2018-19 + 2019-20, over 1000 minutes TOI with McDavid or Draisaitl, Nuge scored 2.80 P/60. You know where that puts him? Here’s a list of the top-10 wingers based on 5v5 P/60 over the past 2 years:

Kucherov: 3.21 P/60
Panarin: 3.02
Marchand: 2.83
* Nugent-Hopkins: 2.80 *
Kane: 2.72
Guentzel: 2.71
Pastrnak: 2.70
Tatar: 2.63
Kubalik: 2.59
Marner: 2.58

That’s elite scoring. Plus he’s very good at killing penalties and of course he’s a powerplay witch.

Maybe he’s found his niche.

*****
For reference, this year Nugent-Hopkins spent about 56% of his 5v5 TOI as a winger, mostly for Draisaitl but some with McDavid too. Here is his “winger only” production lined up with all NHL players with 250+ minutes played:

Nugent-Hopkins: 3.51 P/60 (512 minutes)
Malkin: 3.43 (805)
Panarin: 3.28 (1079)
Yamamoto: 3.16 (418)
Marchand: 3.05 (906)
Kucherov: 3.01 (958)
Stamkos: 2.96 (769)
Pastrnak: 2.92 (985)
MacKinnon: 2.90 (1075)
Draisaitl: 2.89 (1163)
McDavid: 2.84 (1055)

That’s incredible production over a fairly large sample size. I’m looking forward to seeing RNH score 100 points next season as a full-time winger.

If you aren’t Nuge’s agent, you sure as hell should be.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

jtblack:
ArmchairGM,

I would be shopping him to Winnipeg and Carolina … maybe Laine and Aho can influence their GM’s to bring JP on board?

Also.If you were GM of 1 team and you have 1 first round pick in this draft, let’s say #24, would you trade it for JP or would you rather take your pick @ #24 ….

I love your analysis. The one drawback on JP is that he has a somewhat negative history. The FirstRound pick doesn’t.The fact that JP is NOT in the NHL and has had some contract issues, would definitely affect the value other teams will part with. Nobody wants a headache or potential headache.

Again, JP could work out fine, but these issues have to be factored in as well …

Consider that teams that have some knowledge of JP may be the ones with the least interest, not the most. JP strikes me as the definition of a “one year experience five times” guy. I think a team like the Rangers (problem child of their own and desperate) offers much better hope for a trade than either Winnipeg or Carolina or Columbus for that matter. We shall see.

Optimism is like heroin

Jesse what a sh#t show so far in his NHL career.

but i still have a lot of hope with him. In regards to next years roster it will be better with him on it at qualifying numbers.
neal-mcD-kass does well enough
rnh-drai-yamma needs no introduction
khaira-AA-Pulju provides an offensive 3rd line to run against lesser competition with JJ taking draws and giving a solid def winger.
jurco-sheahan-archie have all proven useful

klef-lars been good for a few years
nurse-bear here is hoping bear doesnt regress
jones-krussel kris isnt getting traded

scratches being chia, haas and lagesson.

most contenders from this year are going to be in tough to maintain the rosters while we will be better than the start of 19-20.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: I still don’t understand why it would matter so much to the networks.

Does NBC care if they are broadcasting from Vegas or Chicago or Vancouver or Toronto?

Does it really make a difference?

It does if your putting your employees to work in the middle of a pandemic.
Good chance that LA and Vegas will need to shutdown sometime during the 3+months they are there

N64

OriginalPouzar: I still don’t understand why it matters when the physical location of the hubs are.

Lets also not forget that all the play-in round games won’t be nationally broadcasted – many will be regional broadcasts.

If you don’t understand you could start with the Lansky podcast.

The regional broadcasts are tail not dog here..

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: I predict that Leon is right there with him.

A fully energized Leon is magnificent – 25 points in October.

Small sample size but recent history of dominance in the playoffs – what was it, 16 points in 13 games?

Don’t forget Memorial Cup MVP, even though his team didn’t win the cup. I luv that frickin kid!!!

OriginalPouzar

N64: You bet they care. Sportsnet would be the world broadcaster for any Canadian hubs. NBC for any US hubs. On his oidcast Lansky explained that all national stuff from play by playto captions would be added by downstream broadcasters, not in hub

The US side is really easy. Guess which twitter account savages NBCs broadcast opportunity if both are in Canad?.

For Sportsnet world broadcaster for a Canadian hub makes the job way easier not just for the games but all the outside the game sizzle that drives eyes and ads. Canadian biz wraps themselves in the flag too, just without the flag.

If Sportsnet does not get the most possible out of this replacement for the interrupted season they have leverage in negotiating the true out.

I still don’t understand why it matters when the physical location of the hubs are.

Lets also not forget that all the play-in round games won’t be nationally broadcasted – many will be regional broadcasts.

Reja

jtblack: I might be wrong, but didn’t Carolina move one of their 1st rounders at the deadline?just have the 1st they got in the Marleau deal left???asking a friend

Yes your right they traded their first rounder for Brady Skjei how did I miss that. There blows the whole Aho and his dad having a bit of influence if they had 2 picks in the 1st theory not going to happen now.

N64

ArmchairGM: . I’m looking forward to seeing RNH score 100 points next season as a full-time winger

~ Could skip right over 50 and go straight to 100 ~

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Jesse has a FAR greater chance of becoming a top-6 player than a 2nd. Here’s an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of a mid-first round pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi’s chances of becoming a top player? I’ll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I’m not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn’t written yet), and I’m ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old’s who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O’Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became “top” players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you’re left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse’s 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I’m not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became “top” NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 – 7 pick in an average draft. I’m not going to say he’s worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don’t think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There’s a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he’s far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.

Holy hell someone is doing some amazing research today and providing legit valuable info.

Thank you for your work.

I would also add:

1) His 18 year old season in the AHL never received enough talk for how good it was – the numbers he put up, as the youngest player in North American pro hockey, was very good. I’m not sure if its quite at the Rantanen AHL level but it was good

2) He was dominating the AHL in his 4 games played in his 20 year old season (normally a player’s first pro season in the AHL) and then Hitch “broke him” and his hips…..

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Interesting. I did some research on Nuge as a winger recently and came up with this:

5v5 P/60, 2018-19 + 2019-20, over 1000 minutes TOI with McDavid or Draisaitl, Nuge scored 2.80 P/60. You know where that puts him? Here’s a list of the top-10 wingers based on 5v5 P/60 over the past 2 years:

Kucherov: 3.21 P/60
Panarin: 3.02
Marchand: 2.83
* Nugent-Hopkins: 2.80 *
Kane: 2.72
Guentzel: 2.71
Pastrnak: 2.70
Tatar: 2.63
Kubalik: 2.59
Marner: 2.58

That’s elite scoring. Plus he’s very good at killing penalties and of course he’s a powerplay witch.

Maybe he’s found his niche.

*****
For reference, this year Nugent-Hopkins spent about 56% of his 5v5 TOI as a winger, mostly for Draisaitl but some with McDavid too. Here is his “winger only” production lined up with all NHL players with 250+ minutes played:

Nugent-Hopkins: 3.51 P/60 (512 minutes)
Malkin: 3.43 (805)
Panarin: 3.28 (1079)
Yamamoto: 3.16 (418)
Marchand: 3.05 (906)
Kucherov: 3.01 (958)
Stamkos: 2.96 (769)
Pastrnak: 2.92 (985)
MacKinnon: 2.90 (1075)
Draisaitl: 2.89 (1163)
McDavid: 2.84 (1055)

That’s incredible production over a fairly large sample size. I’m looking forward to seeing RNH score 100 points next season as a full-time winger.

Holy hell……

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: I predict that Leon is right there with him.

A fully energized Leon is magnificent – 25 points in October.

Small sample size but recent history of dominance in the playoffs – what was it, 16 points in 13 games?

Yeah, but can he drive his own line?

Reja

Woogie63:
Young athletes are more temperamental every year.If Jessie can sit out one year, and get traded , watch out for future 21 year oldslooking for greener pastures.This principle is critical for all agents to see, it has to be at the top of Holland‘s deliverables, and fundamental in a cap world.

This business philosophy is more important than the return for young Jessie.

Jesse and his agent decided to play chicken with the wrong Hombre. Holland will not trade him for pennies on the dollar why do you think he picked up AA. Holland knows he has a contender he’s just gathering up the finishing touches. Jesse and his agent better start soliciting hard are he might not see the NHL for 4-5 years. You mess with the bull sometimes you get the horn.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Interesting – after I posted the above, I listened to Insider Trading and LeBrun spoke directly to the point and what the players will be allowed to do during camp.

He did make it sound like they may not be “prohibited” from living life and being out and about but that there will need to be education and extreme player buy-in – to ensure they aren’t contracting the virus at that stage.It’s important to get the hub city stage.

Also, TO re-submitted it’s bid over the weekend – as per LeBrun:

As discussed on Insider Trading today, Toronto’s re-submitted bid was interesting, MLSE proposing a campus-like bubble over 40 acres on CNE grounds with player access to Hotel X, BMO Field, Raptors practice facility, Coca-Cola Coliseum, plus room to put up other amenities…

The Marlies play in the CNE grounds, that gives Toronto an advantage for scheduling actual games.

ArmchairGM

jtblack: I might be wrong, but didn’t Carolina move one of their 1st rounders at the deadline?just have the 1st they got in the Marleau deal left???asking a friend

They have Toronto’s pick which is, IIRC, #19 pending play-in / playoff results.

ArmchairGM

jtblack:
Also. If you were GM of 1 team and you have 1 first round pick in this draft, let’s say #24, would you trade it for JP or would you rather take your pick @ #24 ….

Pick #24 would be a playoff team, but not an upper echelon playoff team. That pick won’t help the team for 3-4 years if at all, whereas Puljujarvi can step into a middle-6 role next training camp. The only downsides to trading that pick for Puljujarvi are waiver eligibility and expansion draft protection. That’s it. Otherwise Puljujarvi (a) can help immediately, (b) is much lower risk, (c) has a higher floor and (d) a similar or higher ceiling.

N64

OriginalPouzar: This is unknown at this time and will be part of the finalized Return to Play protocol that is voted on.

I would anticipate that certain workers/staff will be required to “stay in the bubble”, in particular, those with direct and/or sustained contact with players.

I would think some would be able to go home – I don’t know, restaurant and hotel cleaning staff that have no interaction of team members.

With that said, the more required to stay in the bubble and not permitted to leave (well can’t come back if they leave), the tighter and better.

~ I sure hope the ones in direct contact with wear Red and the others Yellow and Blue to make it really easy to make sure they don’t mix ~

Those details would be in the plans from the bid locations.

N64

OriginalPouzar: I still don’t understand why it would matter so much to the networks.

Does NBC care if they are broadcasting from Vegas or Chicago or Vancouver or Toronto?

Does it really make a difference?

You bet they care. Sportsnet would be the world broadcaster for any Canadian hubs. NBC for any US hubs. On his oidcast Lansky explained that all national stuff from play by play to captions would be added by downstream broadcasters, not in hub

The US side is really easy. Guess which twitter account savages NBCs broadcast opportunity if both are in Canad?.

For Sportsnet world broadcaster for a Canadian hub makes the job way easier not just for the games but all the outside the game sizzle that drives eyes and ads. Canadian biz wraps themselves in the flag too, just without the flag.

If Sportsnet does not get the most possible out of this replacement for the interrupted season they have leverage in negotiating the true out.

OriginalPouzar

Whoa – Mattheson reporting that the Oilers do plan on inviting Broberg to come over for camp on July 10th (and be with the team throughout, obviously).

It will be interesting to see if he comes. I think he will even though this may conflict with the start of his SHL season (=the SHL starts on September 19 so I anticipate camp around the end of August – hopefully the Oilers are still playing)

We know that he was going to be coming to normal training camp in September and then head back over to Sweden and that would have definitely conflicted with the start of the SHL season.

OriginalPouzar

jtblack:
are the workers in the Hub cities supposed to be in the bubble as well? or can they go home between shifts?

This is unknown at this time and will be part of the finalized Return to Play protocol that is voted on.

I would anticipate that certain workers/staff will be required to “stay in the bubble”, in particular, those with direct and/or sustained contact with players.

I would think some would be able to go home – I don’t know, restaurant and hotel cleaning staff that have no interaction of team members.

With that said, the more required to stay in the bubble and not permitted to leave (well can’t come back if they leave), the tighter and better.

OriginalPouzar

N64: They had to true up with Sportsnet and NBC. I think that’s why the PA is getting a short list of 3 from each country.

I still don’t understand why it would matter so much to the networks.

Does NBC care if they are broadcasting from Vegas or Chicago or Vancouver or Toronto?

Does it really make a difference?

N64

OriginalPouzar: From accounts, while Vegas has “worse COVID numbers”, they have the ability to make the tightest bubble of them all

Sounds like a Vegas act. Everyone gets to watch Covid crammed into an inescapable box in Act 1.

PA is not exempt from motivated reasoning. Will Goldbloom be available for the movie?

The PA should actually look for a place where there is less to leak in. In Vegas if it leaked out how would would the impact even register?

OriginalPouzar

Material Elvis:
So Toronto and Vancouver as the HUB cities?Or Toronto and Edmonton?

It very well could be two in the West – of course, the league would prefer and Eastern hub and, of course, they would prefer Toronto, but two in the west is not out of the question.

I don’t know how they’d schedule games during the 3 games per day first week but they can make it happen.

Woogie63

Young athletes are more temperamental every year. If Jessie can sit out one year, and get traded , watch out for future 21 year olds looking for greener pastures. This principle is critical for all agents to see, it has to be at the top of Holland‘s deliverables, and fundamental in a cap world.

This business philosophy is more important than the return for young Jessie.

OriginalPouzar

N64:
~ As expected, It’s down to Vegas, Vancouver, Jasper, Toronto, LA and Chicago. ~

Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
·
15m
Dallas and Pittsburgh have also been informed they are no longer in the Hub city process, joining Columbus and Minnesota on the outs. The six that remain are Vegas, Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, LA and Chicago.

While, if all things are equal, I would prefer one hub to be Edmonton because, well, why not?

At the same time, my highest priority (not that my priorities matter) is that the hubs selected have proposed plans that will encourage the players to vote yes.

The players care about healthy and safety but they also care about the hotels and the activities and the experience and about family participation, etc.

From accounts, while Vegas has “worse COVID numbers”, they have the ability to make the tightest bubble of them all.