Tyler Benson’s NHL equivalencies have shown a consistent contributor offensively since he was drafted. A forward who posts 30+ NHLE points should be able to grab an NHL job and score enough to stay in the league until his hands betray him.
Benson was drafted around some quality players in 2016’s second round. We know he’ll never catch Alex DeBrincat, but what about the other men drafted in the second round with Benson?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: How Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto can increase his value
- New Lowetide: Everything you forgot (but need to know) about Oilers’ 2019-20 season
- New Eric Duhatschek: Q&A: Wayne Gretzky on making whisky, learning to like IPAs and loving cheap wine
- Lowetide: Injury is biggest factor in the Oilers’ hopes for extended playoff run
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s struggle to score might affect future role with Oilers
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s second Oilers draft should deliver high-octane offence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s all surreal’: Kevin Lowe’s Hall of Fame nod nets surprise and satisfaction
- Lowetide: 10 things to look for at Oilers training camp and the 2020 playoffs
- Lowetide: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Oilers should protect these 8 skaters in the Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
DRAFT DAY NHLE’S SINCE 2010 (TOP OILERS PICKS)
- Connor McDavid 25-42-67
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46
- Nail Yakupov 18-22-40
- Leon Draisaitl 15-25-40
- Kailer Yamamoto 16-22-38
- Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38
- Raphael Lavoie 12-15-27
- Ryan McLeod 10-17-27
- Tyler Benson 7-16-23
- Jesse Puljujarvi 10-11-21
TYLER BENSON’S NHLE’S
The NHLE’s do a nice job of showing who is emerging and when. DeBrincat was miles better than everyone in the second round on draft day, and was posting 52 points in an NHL season two years later. Jordan Kyrou has had a nice trajectory since draft day too, I think he’ll be a regular for several years. In this group, I would pick Benson third. He’s been a consistent 30+ NHLE since he was drafted. He’s ready.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE’S NHLE’S
Lavoie looks good in this group, he won’t catch Kaliyev (who isn’t in DeBrincat territory but it is no more than one town over) but there’s some real talent there. A good trajectory.
RYAN MCLEOD’S NHLE’S
I think Berggren projects as the best in this group, after that no clear second place finisher. Ylonen and McLeod are playing in pro leagues and project as bottom six options, Noel and Drury can still be projected a little higher. I don’t think this group is as clear as it will be three years from now.
BOB MCKENZIE’S 2020 SECOND ROUND
- No. 34 LC Jan Mysak (OHL) 30.1
- No. 35 LC Marat Khusnutdinov (MHL) 12.7
- No. 39 LW Ty Smilanic (USHL) 14.3
- No. 40 RW Ozzy Wiesblatt (WHL) 27.1
- No. 41 RW Sam Colangelo (USHL) 29.2
I’ve mentioned a few times that trading Jesse Puljujarvi for a second-round pick isn’t something to recommend but an exception could be made if Jan Mysak is available at (say) No. 35 overall.
OILERS SECOND ROUND FORWARDS 2010-19
If we run the NHLE’s for second round picks through the last decade, we get an idea about when the organization turned the corner and started valuing second-round picks as offensive contributors. Miles to go, but progress, starting with Marco Roy, and that’s the time men like Craig MacTavish and Michael Parkatti were adding their valuations to the pile. I consider any NHLE season of 30 or more points after draft +1 as representing NHL-readiness.
Pitlick’s numbers were a little shy for an early second rounder but year two looked promising. He couldn’t stay healthy in the AHL and lost both development time and opportunities with the Oilers. Pitlick finally found the range and for his NHL career is averaging 13-11-24 per 82 NHL games.
Roy is a lost opportunity in my opinion, drafted by MacT in 2013 and then signed to an AHL-only deal (laughable considering the quality of players who the team gave pro contracts to in 2015) and put him on the No. 4 line with PK duty. He STILL outperformed the competition but the organization’s new management group had no interest.
Benson is the first forward this decade chosen in the second round who has delivered the kind of offense that will land him an NHL job. If he’s bottom-six, then he should be capable of delivering 25-30 points per 82 games. That’s a little more than Pitlick and the resume suggests that’s fair. Lavoie is tracking ahead of Benson but it’s early days.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Friday edition of the Lowdown, we hit the airwaves steady talking at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk NHL’s return and who he likes to win it all among Canadian teams. Tom Gazzola from TSN’s Don Wheaton on Whyte Pre & Post-Game Show and the Locked on Oilers podcast gives us the latest on RTP and CBA negotiations. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Of course reporters can have the same bullet points. How many different draft summaries are sources sharing with media?
OP should be able to relate to posting before reading all prior posts ?
I’d agree for next season but Bouchard/Lagesson are 9 and 10 on the D depth chart. Marody is 6th with a guy who plays LW and a guy who scored 10 points standing between him and a lineup spot (Marody remains a very long shot to get games, of course)
Yes some of the players are out and about certainly. Are you speculating on Hall, Tarasenko, Stone etc though? Or are they on instagram posting about heading out in Vegas? (and what is bumping?)
I hope you can appreciate that I often pass along things for the group. If someone has read it in another form, previous to my posting it, that’s a risk I’m willing to take for the greater good.
I’d give that “award” to Evan Bouchard, maybe even Willie Lagesson, but I do agree that Marody has a chance if he is truly healthy and dedicated himself to improving where he needs to.
I’m tired of hyped up prospects who then go on to bust. Edmonton Oilers pre KH were in charge of writing the playbook.
They may not live in those cities generally but they will be back there now preparing for and during camp.
Hall and OEL walking around Phoenix
Tarasenko and Pieterangelo bumping in St. Louis.
Stone and Nylander heading out in Vegas
Then, boom, next day – on a plane to Edmonton.
That was a great piece last night but I read it 4 hours prior in Friedman’s piece (as summarized in this thread) – bullet points mentioned were identical.
No Oiler fan “wants to see him fail” – some have an opinion that he lacks certain attributes to make it in the NHL – that doesn’t mean they don’t want him to make it.
Fantastic to see Oilers fans arguing which of KH’s players will turn up ready to blow the doors off.
KH makes it easy for individual players to work hard and succeed. Whether Marody or Benson or whichever new additions turn up ready to win, the future appears workable.
I’ll second that.
I think i’d give him a better chance of contributing than anyone who played less than 30 NHL games this season.
(partly because he’s a good hockey player, partly because Khaira and Haas are what’s ahead of him)
Sorry, I did miss that. Been slowly getting my brain back into hockey after a 5 week hiatus.
Forgot that Benson took the extra year of Junior (which would’ve been a better way of making my point per that part of the development).
As noted above, the timing of Cooper’s injury is far worse, no doubt. A short or perhps non-existent AHL season is no help to his cause either.
At the end of the day, either player has me convinced at this point, but if I was making bets my money would be on Benson. The age difference is enough to sway me to that side of the equation, but it’s more than that. The drive too. Now Cooper hasn’t had the opportunity to come back from the level of injury adversity Tyler has, but he’ll get it next season. I’m very curious to see what he does with it.
Hearing about the levels of 97’s workouts,I hope the likes of hopefuls like Benson and Marody are matching his efforts. No excuse for not working on fitness and fundamentals during this long AHL off-season.
That’s really interesting.
I don’t like it, but it is interesting and potentially relevant.
Hello.
Your dislike of Benson truly is odd. Is there a personal connection?
Do many of the players actually live in those cities though? (think about how few Oilers were in Edmonton until this week).
I wonder if teams with more players from New England might be the concern (new cases aren’t so high but they’re still higher than most/all of Canada). And honestly, Sweden may have the most per capita cases currently of places where players are spending their time (I of course don’t actually know where players are spending their time).
I’m slightly concerned about this as it relates to the Oilers (only slightly).
Why do some folks want to see Benson fail they haven’t even watched him play but somebody said he has slow boots so he’s a loser prospect. It’s not Benson’s fault Oilers picked him over DeBrincat these folks should quit pouting and get over it.
Nice update from Lebrun on what players will vote on:
https://theathletic.com/1909008/2020/07/03/all-the-details-of-the-current-framework-for-the-nhls-new-cba-agreement/?source=twittered
Nope, I did not know this – as I said in my post “I imagine…..” – if I imagined wrong, so be it.
Each of the three could very well be more successful than Khaira and I would suggest that Benson and McLeod are both WAY ahead of were JJ was after his 1st and 2nd years of pro and are both treding to have better NHL careers.
“There’s a lot to like about him, but as is the case with so many prospects, it will come down to luck and timing.”
-LT
– Nope: I get how reflex be “higher up in the 2nd = greater chance of making it” Math does not bear this out. There are many articles and math that have mapped this out. But you know this
– It’s highly unlikely that any make an impact for the Oil (i.e great than Jar). But if one or more does become better than Jar, it makes a massive difference to the team. But 1-3 years away
– Sure replacement level Jar type is a good hope
The two big differences between the two are:
1. Marody’s impact offensively appears to be greater than Benson’s and
2. Marody’s injury had a massive impact on his career after turning pro. Players lose that NHL window over injuries just like that one.
Very true. Benson is the SUCCESS in the decade of drafted forwards, no matter what happens from here.
This is a valid point but I would like to add that they were all high round second picks – all in the top 10 of the 2nd round and Benson the 2nd pick of the second round. I would anticipate materially more 30-40 drafts than 50-60 make it?
Also, Benson was a first round pedigree pick that fell due to major injuries and then proceeded to have a huge rookie pro season at 20 that expanded expectations.
Lavoie was also projected to go 1st round generally.
To be fair to the community, I don’t think anyone is projected McLeod in the top 6 and most thing Benson will be a middle six or bottom 6 guy.
– Just a reminder: 15% of NHLers are 2nd round picks. Yeah cheer for Benson, Lavoie, McLeod, but also easier to cheer for them if there are not unreasonbale expectations put on them
– It’s probable they don’t make it. It’s a massive gift to the team going forward if one or more of the 85% chance of not making it 2nd rounders do. Don’t count on it, and you will be happier IMO
From the organization’s standpoint, I definitely agree that Benson has more perceived “pavement” ahead of him. My argument is they are not that different, but they appear to be valued on opposite sides of the spectrum.
I don’t think it’s clear at all that Marody has had more development time. Benson has played more games than Marody since turning pro in 2017.
Benson – 127 gp
Marody – 97 gp
In addition to that, the same year they both turned pro both players played the follwing:
Benson played – 58 games in the dub
Marody played – 40 games in college
Benson has played in 185 games since 2017-18
Marody has played in 137 games since 2017-18
*A 48 game difference since the start of the 2017-2018 season
Agreed!
Players should be, essentially, staying home right now, in particular in places like Phoenix, Vegas, St. Louis, etc.
It should be mandated for the Stage 3.
Of course, the players wouldn’t like it but they should accept it and comply in order to give this thing a real shot – its a massive win for them if they can get er’ done.
You said “You can’t ask people”. I was just pointing out ,that some people are asked all the time, sometimes several times over, where there is no personal benefit and enormous risk.
The players have an enormous stake in this. It is not self-sacrifice. They will be doing it for their own collective benefit.
And they individually will have the right to opt out.
Agreed – not even a little.
With that said, they are “doing it” for stage 4 and, in my opinion, it needs to be done for stage 3.
Sure, players won’t like restrictions for an extra two weeks but given how sweet of a financial deal the RTP/CBA extension and transitional provision are for them, one would think they could agree to suck it up at home for an extra two weeks.
This is 100% true,
What about NHLer’s that play in one city but their wife & kids live in another?
2 months apart seems normal to me.
Others wouldn’t walk across the street without their family.
I would leave mine behind,
Especially if I was talented enough to play pro hockey.
I can also see why collectively the players association would vote against it.
I’m glad that they have that rite.
It’s almost impossible too cage a bunch of hormone filled hound dogs who have bank accounts that start with 7 or 8 numbers. we shall see.
I agree he will get his opportunities but they will also be based on his wonderful rookie pro season and the signs he did show in the NHL.
Absolutely, huge work ethic on this player from all accounts.
I see him as an NHL regular as well – question is middle six or does he have a legit top 6 future.
Time will tell.
Yep, lots of people travel abroad for work.
My good friend travels to Iraq & Africa regularly for oilfield.
Works exactly 6 months per year, 6 months off, can’t be easy but that’s the job
The military and the NHL are not similar.
Waiting to hear about Tampa & FP,
Stars, Coyotes….
Yikes
Benson will get his opportunities given his draft position, his Edmonton roots and his pre-junior career promise. What he has, above the Schremps and the Ratties is his drive and work ethic.
He’ll be an NHL regular in 2 years. We wait.
Its a little more involved than that.
The players are getting an absolute sweetheart of a financial deal in the extended CBA and transitional provisions for revenues.
If the players don’t agree to come back to play or agree with only a certain level or restrictions that shuts it down then the entire house of cards comes crashing down. It will cost the players huge in the short, medium and, probably, long term.
The players, as a group, should be massively incentivized to ensure they can complete this post-season.
Not to mention the increased Playoff Fund to $36M for this year (almost double what it was originally set at).
They are also doing it in stage 4 – no reason they can’t do it in stage 3.
Shit, it should be extended to “close contact” persons as well.
I mean, if the players want this to actually work.
Totally expected in my opinion.
The players are at liberty to be out and about in St. Louis – being part of society – shopping, beaches, clubs, whatever.
I anticipated that to be 100% restricted during the training camp phase, players restricted to home and rink but, alas, that won’t be the case and, while they are “being asked to stay home as much as possible” during the last week of camp – no restriction on Shea Theodore and Willy Karlsson heading out to the club in Vegas the night before they hope on the plane for Edmonton.
Terrible!.
Some Tradesman go to camps and work months on end with very few days off if it’s a emergency but I can guarantee you if they were 25 years old making millions of dollars they would say See Yaa…
The military does it all the time, and the soldiers are doing it for the benefit of others, on dangerous precarious missions. In the NHL, the players would be doing it to benefit themselves.
This is likely a one time extenuating circumstance requiring the sacrifice.
Depends where those Black Aces come from.
I called both of them “tweener types”. I.e., they’re already on that list (again barring steps forward).
I’m not sure about your first paragraph. I think it is pretty clear that Cooper has had far more development time, not Benson, as your para reads.
Maybe it’s better to look at it another way… Benson has more pavement ahead of him before org patience runs out than does Cooper.
Yikes. Well I guess it was expected. Will the league get to the finish line? The black aces may be more important than I thought.
Yes Sir. Benson definitely has more pro experience under his belt. When do we stop talking about Benson’s injury history? He’s played almost two full seasons of pro.
The comparison was made because my perception is that most would consider Schremp to be one of our top forward prospects, yet Cooper gets no love? People have commented that skating could hold Cooper back, but skating won’t be an issue for Benson because of his smarts. Really?
Add Benson to this list:
Schremp
Omark
Lander
Rattie
Blues have shut down their facilities for a few days due to multiple players testing positive.
I’ve been unconcerned about cases at this stage as there are no restrictions on players and I’ve assumed that, once camp starts, stage 3, they’d be highly restricted.
Given that is not going to be the case and there will really just be a “suggestion to stay home as much as possible” during the last week, I am concerned.
We can’t have players just going about their lives in Dallas, Vegas, St. Louis, Phoenix, etc. and then hop on a plane to Edmonton the next day.
Players out and about in society in these jurisdictions will bring the virus to Edmonton.
*googles Ally May*
Jeremy Rutherford
@jprutherford
·
11m
Sources: Blues cancel practices due to ‘multiple’ COVID-19 positive tests https://theathletic.com/1908888/2020/07/03/sources-blues-cancel-practices-due-to-multiple-covid-19-positive-tests/ #stlblues
You can’t ask people to leave their families in June and see them in September, OP. Two months is unreasonable. MORE than two months? No, I don’t think so.
Agreed. Age is definitely a factor. Is my abacus off? Or is yours?