The draft and team building: It takes a village

Craig MacTavish is easily the most quotable coach/manager in the history of the Edmonton Oilers. I’ve been told that my criticism of MacT in past years was over the top, perhaps that’s true. If you read his words, hard to understand how he fell short. Here’s an example, a quote from the 2014-15 season:

“It (absence of drafted players from later rounds) undermines the performance of everything we do on and off the ice, and it has to get better. From the minute we took over we focused on improving our draft record. We’ve worked hard to improve all of our draft processes. We are more regionally focused. There’s more of an emphasis on getting to know the players, interviewing the players. We’ve integrated a lot of analytics into our decision making. We’ve integrated a lot of technology into our video scouting. We’ve got more management now in the field communicating with our scouts. We’ve got a draft philosophy since I took over in an effort to improve our draft record. Last year’s draft (2014) is tough to evaluate because we didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. The draft before (2013) I think we’ve added a lot of pieces & a lot of things that we needed.”

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

THE 2007 DRAFT

The real culprit in the 2014-15 Oilers season was the 2007 draft. Kevin Prendergast presided over the draft 2001-07 for Edmonton and there were many problems—including several years when the team didn’t have an AHL club.

The 2007 draft came at a time when Edmonton badly needed to replenish the system, a problem that wasn’t solved when MacT took over over five years later. In 2007 summer, the Oilers were only one year removed from the 2006 SCF but the NHL roster was wobbly in many places and Ryan Smyth had left town.

The Oilers entered the draft with: The No. 6, No. 15, No. 30 and No. 36 overall picks.

A tremendous need for help everywhere meant the scouting department had all kinds of options available. Let’s review what they did at each point in the draft and how it has impacted the team since that weekend.

NUMBER SIX OVERALL

Before the draft, we discussed (on this blog) Edmonton getting one of Sam Gagner or Jakub Voracek at No. 6 overall. As it turned out, the LA Kings chose Thomas Hickey out of order, and the Oilers were left with their choice of the two players they coveted (well, Prendergast kept saying things about Karl Alzner but I digress). Edmonton chose wrong (Voracek>Gagner) but Gagner has enjoyed a solid career. Lowe and Prendergast didn’t get full value from No. 6 overall but did get value. Per 82 NHL games over his career, Gagner scored 16-29-45.

NO 15 OVERALL

Alex Plante didn’t work out—there were injury issues from the beginning, at the first rookie camp before main camp—but the idea of a big, strong defender with some offense was certainly defensible. The error with this selection: BPA. The club should have taken Cherepanov, and the fact the young man died tragically doesn’t change the point of BPA.

Plante was not the best defenseman still on the board (Subban), we know that today. What we knew draft day is that Plante wasn’t the best value at No. 15 and they should have either traded down or taken a more highly rated player. Ian Cole and Jonathan Blum were available and chosen shortly after Plante.

My other issue with this pick: Mobility. Plante’s problem, beyond the concussions, was his ability to change direction. It was like watching a big rig turn around in a phone booth: awkward, slow and exasperating.

NO 21 OVERALL: RILEY NASH

One of the things I’ve come to appreciate over these years is Red Line Report. Kyle Woodlief’s chat on USA Today draft week 2007: At Red Line, our staff loves Riley Nash, and I think he could go off the board possibly as high as #15 overall. A really well schooled, all-around player who can play it any way you want.

The choice at No. 21 was shocking because Edmonton gave up No. 30 and No. 36 to get a checking forward, a MacTavish, a player who would never play for them. The trade up, in draft value, was a massive overpayment but might have been justified had they chosen Max Pacioretty or David Perron. Edmonton had a real chance for skill in the first round, but only one of the three picks was devoted to that side of the game. Nash, for his NHL career, is averaging 9-16-25 over 541 games. Aim for the heavens in the first round.

FEBRUARY 1, 2015

I wrote the following about MacT and the 2015 draft on the first of February that year:

The Oilers have three high picks this coming draft, they currently hold No. 2, No. 23 and No. 32 overall picks (rest of season and lottery to come). I think they need to take three forwards, the best offensive options available, and avoid any of the second tier leagues. That’s BCJHL (for the love of God Almighty), AJHL, SJHL, MJHL, OPJHL, USHL, NAHL, all of it. They should draft players in the first three selections from the CHL, NCAA or Europe.

They should NOT factor in how many years they have to make a decision, that’s a chicken play when you’re drafting this high. They should NOT take any player in those three selections who hasn’t shown a clear ability to impact the offense. Full stop.

On the day Bob Green, Scott Howson and Craig MacTavish sit down to make the final list (I assume Stu MacGregor and the scouts will have been fired into the sun by the Nicholson cannon), they need to pay heed to the following:

  • No size AND skating issues, no matter the talent
  • No insane reaches
  • No packaging up No. 23 and No. 32 to get to No. 17 (that isn’t value)
  • No BCJHL or any other JHL
  • No one with a long list of injuries already
  • NO GOALIES (they won’t listen to this one)
  • No picks that have questionable offensive resumes. This draft is deep enough to score three magnificent talents.

I think they should walk into the room and take (based on where they are now) Jack Eichel, Anthony Beauvillier and Jake DeBrusk.

THE 2015 DRAFT

I thought the Oilers should have held on to those picks but new general manager Peter Chiarelli went in a different direction. It’s unfair to say progress was flat though, as the summer 2015 list, with help from the MacT years, has some stunning talent at the top and the beginnings of true depth on defense and at center. Here’s my top 20 from 2015 summer.

  1. (NR) C Connor McDavid. The franchise.
  2. (1) C Leon Draisaitl. I love his passing, he’s a wonderful player.
  3. (2) D Darnell Nurse. Nurse does appear to have the full range of skills.
  4. (NR) D Griffin Reinhart. Big defender (6.04, 217) was a dominant junior player.
  5. (4) C Bogdan Yakimov. Big C impressed during TC, then struggled offensively for long stretches.
  6. (5) W Iiro Pakarinen. 6.01, 205 winger with grit and skill.
  7. (9) C Kyle Platzer. He emerged as a genuine NHL prospect in his final junior year.
  8. (6) C-R Greg Chase. Gritty forward with offensive ability.
  9. (17) L Anton Slepyshev. Slepyshev scored 15 goals in a tough damn league playing 12:26 a night.
  10. (NR) D Ethan Bear. Good skater, makes pinpoint passes, good decisions, calm feet and can hit hard.
  11. (16) G Laurent Brossoit. Brossoit’s numbers (.918SP) suggest an actual goalie prospect on the horizon.
  12. (14) D Joey Laleggia. Quality offensive defenseman at the NCAA level.
  13. (8) D Dillon Simpson. The jump from college to pro was a big challenge early for the young defender.
  14. (NR) G Eetu Laurikainen. A .933SP in any league is exceptional.
  15. (29) R Andrew Miller. Reminds many of Mark Arcobello and may win a utility role in 2015-16.
  16. (22) D Jordan Oesterle. He’s fast! You have to respect a player with wheels.
  17. (NR) D Caleb Jones. A mobile defender with a reputation for being a very good passer.
  18. (7) C Jujhar Khaira. If he could only score a little more, Khaira would be much higher on this list.
  19. (10) R Tyler Pitlick. I think he may need a second organization.
  20. (15) D William Lagesson. Physical defenseman with a reputation for being solid in coverage.

Who gets credit for the 2015 draft, after McDavid? I addressed this the other day, but it did take a village that included Chiarelli, MacT, Howson, even the departed MacGregor. MacT was directly responsible for Draisaitl, Nurse, Yakimov, Pakarinen, Platzer, Chase, Slepyshev, Brossoit (via trade), Oesterle and Lagesson.

I think MacTavish is a smart guy and if he’d been given more time it’s possible he would have been a successful general manager. He was a quality coach and did some fine work in the GM’s chair despite lacking experience. He contributed significantly to the Oilers team you see today.

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89 Responses to "The draft and team building: It takes a village"

  1. slopitch says:

    20m in cap space and all those picks. All they had to do was use the picks and be opportunistic. Sigh. MacT made several mistakes biggest of which was his handling of Petry imo. But he woulda done a better job than PC

  2. Reja says:

    slopitch:
    20m in cap space and all those picks. All they had to do was use the picks and be opportunistic. Sigh. MacT made several mistakes biggest of which was his handling of Petry imo. But he woulda done a better job than PC

    No doubt about it the biggest mistake in franchise history was the hiring of the snake oil salesman, nut bar, backstabbing, righteous wannabe guru Eakins. He turned the Oiler Logo into a laughing stock world wide it’s taken 5 years to finally get his stink off of this once proud franchise.

  3. Brantford Boy says:

    Yeah, hindsight being 20/20, think MacT deserved one more year as GM… how could he have screwed up the 2015 draft any worse than Chiarelli… maybe he would have given up more riches for Talbot, if that was his play but McDavid and the mid first round pick would have been used better in my opinion. Hell Curious George could have done better than Chiarelli… well, until…
    https://www.ifunny.com/pictures/curious-george-and-ebola-virus/

  4. Oil2Oilers says:

    With the new CBA extension becoming clearer I have updated my win the Autumn list for Holland;

    1. Convince Puljujarvi to come give it one more shot. He would be a value contact, in mid season form and has a higher upside than any likely return.

    2. Trade Benning & Chiason to Ottawa for their own 2nd round pick. Ottawa is desperate for defense Benning is a good one and inexpensive to boot.

    3. Trade Russell to Vancouver for Brandon Sutter, with Vancouver retaining to make the Cap hit even. Both are poor value contracts but Oilers LHD depth and Van’s Center depth mean at least these boat anchors will be in more useful areas for each team.

    4. Sign Bear to a medium term contract. It no longer makes sense for players to try and bridge into the next CBA, as the CBA has been bridged. A 5 year 20M contact heavy on the yearly signing bonus, for which Bear can reside in a low tax jurisdiction.

    And finally Oilers fans should gird your loins for a Nurse trade next summer. I love the big lug, but he will be looking for top pairing D money. Nurse to Seattle so they take Neal would open up >12M in cap space, vital in a cap stagnant world, and allow for things like signing Nuge forever.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa man – that piece on the prospects at The Athletic looks epic and right up my ally – excited to read.

    I usually wait until evening to read through The Athletic but may have to peruse early today.

    Thank you Al.

  6. godot10 says:

    Mercifully, I don’t think Holland is a #NurseHater like half the Oilogosphere.

    The Oilers have a D with physicality (and durability) in a player who can actually play the modern NHL game.

    It is silly to develop a defensemen, and then trade him away as he enters the prime of his career. The Oilers have been making this mistake for nearly fifteen years now, giving up on and trading away players just as they enter their prime.

    This, more than anything else, has been the reason for the decade plus era of darkness.

    One cannot win sustainably unless the core of one’s team is between 25-29. Elite players arrive a couple of years earlier, and last a couple of years longer.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think the flat $81.5M cap for the next two years in conjunction with all the other financial transition pieces in the CBA (i.e 20% escrow decreasing over the next few years, etc.) is a major win for the players.

    Without an agreement like this, to delink the cap from HRR for a few years, the cap would be massively reduced for next year and escrow would be close to 40% to make up the gap from this past year – for example.

    I think the Oilers should be fine for this coming year with the cap – they will have enough to re-sign Bear an AA and one of Green or Benning.

    No room for an external 3C acquisition, like Soderberg, unless they can move on from Rusty.

    With the flat cap, there will be fewer teams able to take on his $4M, even with only a $1.5M cash outlay.

    Most teams are cap constrained more than “real dollars constrained”.

    The issue I see for the Oilers is the following season when Kailer Yamamoto needs to be re-signed and Ryan Nugent Hopkins needs to be re-signed and maybe Ethan Bear (if his bridge is only one year) and maybe Adam Larsson.

    Yes, some money comes off (Pouliot buyout, Chiasson, Larsson, Rusty if not moved earlier) but there are some big raises coming (i.e Bear and Yamamoto).

    To me, a Neal buyout is not a legit option this year – 6 years of a $2M cap hit is too much. It may be required next off-season though.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Yes some of the players are out and about certainly. Are you speculating on Hall, Tarasenko, Stone etc though? Or are they on instagram posting about heading out in Vegas? (and what is bumping?)

    Just to be clear, I was using their names totally randomly.

    Point being, players in Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, St. Louis, Vegas, etc. can be out and about in society, in Covid-hotbed areas right up and till they get on the plane for Edmonton/Toronto.

    Sure, its “suggested” they stay home as much as possible during that last week of camp but its not mandated.

    Maybe the boys are going to head out clubbing knowing they will be restricted indefinitely.

    MAF, for example, may be planning to be gone for two months given Vegas may go deep – he may want to go out with his wife and kids in Vegas and have a day with his family, out and about, before leaving them.

    Just pure made up scenarios above of things the players are at liberty to do before the get on the plane for the bubble.

    This does not protect against players bringing Covid in to the bubble and decreases the odds this thing gets past the play-in, in my opinion.

  9. New Improved Darkness says:

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  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    On additional point on the CBA extension that will be voted on:

    Players who play in Europe will no longer require waivers to come back to the NHL, provided they sign their NHL contract by Dec. 15

    I think this is just a change to UFAs playing in Europe as the Section of the current CBA excepts out players on loan and on the teams restricted free agency list:

    13.23 In the event a professional or former professional Player plays in a league outside North
    America after the start of the NHL Regular Season, other than on Loan from his Club, he may
    thereafter play in the NHL during that Playing Season (including Playoffs) only if he has first
    either cleared or been obtained via Waivers. For the balance of the Playing Season, any such
    Player who has been obtained via Waivers may be Traded or Loaned only after again clearing
    Waivers or through Waiver claim. This section shall not apply to a Player on the Reserve List or
    Restricted Free Agent List of an NHL Club with whom the Player is signing an NHL SPC or is
    party to an existing SPC with such NHL Club.

  11. Victoria Oil says:

    The trading up with picks #30 and #36 to take Riley Nash at #21 still irks me. I don’t know where Nash stood on Bob MacKenzie’s best player available list but I do know that he wasn’t close to where the Oilers had him. I’m pretty sure the Oilers could still have got him or a better player at #30 and still had #36 in their pocket.

  12. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The flat cap will also be a huge benefit to teams that have significant cap space and flexibility going into the next few seasons.

    As scary as the Avalanche already are, they will be positioned to take advantage of other teams problems and pretty much have their pick of free agents.

    Other teams that stand to reap the rewards are NJD, LAK, CLB, WPG, NYR.

    This IMO will dramatically alter the competitive balance of the league over the next three seasons.

  13. jp says:

    godot10:
    Mercifully, I don’t think Holland is a #NurseHater like half the Oilogosphere.

    The Oilers have a D with physicality (and durability)in a player who can actually play the modern NHL game.

    It is silly to develop a defensemen, and then trade him away as he enters the prime of his career.The Oilers have been making this mistake for nearly fifteen years now, giving up on and trading away players just as they enter their prime.

    This, more than anything else, has been the reason for the decade plus era of darkness.

    One cannot win sustainably unless the core of one’s team is between 25-29.Elite players arrive a couple of years earlier, and last a couple of years longer.

    This I agree with.

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The flat cap will also be a huge benefit to teams that have significant cap space and flexibility going into the next few seasons.

    As scary as the Avalanche already are, they will be positioned to take advantage of other teams problems and pretty much have their pick of free agents.

    Other teams that stand to reap the rewards are NJD, LAK, CLB, WPG, NYR.

    This IMO will dramatically alter the competitive balance of the league over the next three seasons.

    The rangers don’t have much cap as they need to sign Deangelo and Strome
    Free agents hate Columbus
    Winnipeg isn’t much better
    New Jersey is better off but not much

    But yes but I could see The Kings trying to turn things around quickly to keep Drew and Kopidor happy

  15. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Just to be clear, I was using their names totally randomly.

    Point being, players in Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, St. Louis, Vegas, etc. can be out and about in society, in Covid-hotbed areas right up and till they get on the plane for Edmonton/Toronto.

    Sure, its “suggested” they stay home as much as possible during that last week of camp but its not mandated.

    Maybe the boys are going to head out clubbing knowing they will be restricted indefinitely.

    MAF, for example, may be planning to be gone for two months given Vegas may go deep – he may want to go out with his wife and kids in Vegas and have a day with his family, out and about, before leaving them.

    Just pure made up scenarios above of things the players are at liberty to do before the get on the plane for the bubble.

    This does not protect against players bringing Covid in to the bubble and decreases the odds this thing gets past the play-in, in my opinion.

    I assumed they must be examples. I feel like Swedish players are as much a concern.

    I understand the implications but as others have noted it’s kinda tough to FORCE all these players to quarantine for an extra 2 weeks on top of what they’re already doing.

    FWIW the MLB screening seems to be faring pretty well (1.2% positive). Far, far more of their players are in locales with lots of cases than hockey players.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: The rangers don’t have much cap as they need to sign Deangelo and Strome
    Free agents hate Columbus
    Winnipeg isn’t much better
    New Jersey is better off but not much

    But yes but I could see The Kings trying to turn things around quickly to keep Drew and Kopidor happy

    You need to look beyond one season here.

    NYR will have abundant cap space when the Lunqvist $8.5 million vanishes and The Hattenkirk buyout flattens.

    CLB can weaponize it’s cap space in trades.

    Ditto WPG but the Jets are also loaded at forward and can parlay that into rebuilding the D.

    NJD are also going to get another high end forward at the draft and can also squeeze cap strapped teams in a buyers market

    The Kings already have the best prospect pool in the league with another couple of blue chip prospects about to be added. With the Brown and Carter contracts coming to an end, they will be awash in cap space with numerous young stars on ELCs.

  17. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The Kings already have the best prospect pool in the league with another couple of blue chip prospects about to be added. With the Brown and Carter contracts coming to an end, they will be awash in cap space with numerous young stars on ELCs.

    Yes for 2022-23 things do open up for the Kings (Brown/Carter off the books).

    Though they’ll still look forward to $10M for Kopitar’s age 35 and 36 seasons, $6M for 36 year old Quick who’s already below replacement level now, and $11M in perpetuity for Doughty’s mid-30s. There is hope, but they still have some more pain to endure before they get there (if they ever do).

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I assumed they must be examples. I feel like Swedish players are as much a concern.

    I understand the implications but as others have noted it’s kinda tough to FORCE all these players to quarantine for an extra 2 weeks on top of what they’re already doing.

    FWIW the MLB screening seems to be faring pretty well (1.2% positive). Far, far more of their players are in locales with lots of cases than hockey players.

    The players that returned from Europe were subject to a mandated quarantine upon arrival.

    Klef, Larsson, etc. will be Covid-free upon their introduction to the NHL phase 2 that is currently happening.

    Of course, they could be out and about in Edmonton doing whatever after training camp starts – much less likely to pick up Covid in Edmonton than, say, Phoenix though.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The flat cap will also be a huge benefit to teams that have significant cap space and flexibility going into the next few seasons.

    As scary as the Avalanche already are, they will be positioned to take advantage of other teams problems and pretty much have their pick of free agents.

    Other teams that stand to reap the rewards are NJD, LAK, CLB, WPG, NYR.

    This IMO will dramatically alter the competitive balance of the league over the next three seasons.

    I didn’t do a deep dive in to any of the listed teams but the Rangers stood out to me so I took a quick look.

    How do you suppose they will have cap room to weaponize?

    I didn’t crunch the numbers but with a raise to Strome and major raises for DeAngelo and Lemieux coming off their ELCS, unless they are able to move the King, I don’t see them having ample cap space. A buyout of the King (not that I think they would do that, would only save $3M and have a dead cap hit of $5.5M for this year).

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I didn’t do a deep dive in to any of the listed teams but the Rangers stood out to me so I took a quick look.

    How do you suppose they will have cap room to weaponize?

    I didn’t crunch the numbers but with a raise to Strome and major raises for DeAngelo and Lemieux coming off their ELCS, unless they are able to move the King, I don’t see them having ample cap space. A buyout of the King (not that I think they would do that, would only save $3M and have a dead cap hit of $5.5M for this year).

    As I said, look beyond one season.
    Lundqvist has one year left at $8.5 million, then he’s gone.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Yes for 2022-23 things do open up for the Kings (Brown/Carter off the books).

    Though they’ll still look forward to $10M for Kopitar’s age 35 and 36 seasons, $6M for 36 year old Quick who’s already below replacement level now, and $11M in perpetuity for Doughty’s mid-30s. There is hope, but they still have some more pain to endure before they get there (if they ever do).

    Oh, they will get there.
    Even with all those contracts on the books they finished the season with almost $7 million in cap space and when Brown and Carter are done, that will free up another $11 million.

    Just take a look at their growing centre depth.

    Kopitar
    Vilardi
    Turcotte
    Thomas
    Madden.
    Kupari

    Every one of those players is a blue chip prospect behind Kopitar and you can add Kaliev to that mix on the wing where obviously some of the others will play.

    Since they will also be picking #2 in the upcoming draft it will be interesting if they go with Drysdale
    or grab another high end centre.

  22. New Improved Darkness says:

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    Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of Wikipedia for ever.

  23. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Oh, they will get there.
    Even with all those contracts on the books they finished the season with almost $7 million in cap space and when Brown and Carter are done, that will free up another $11 million.

    Just take a look at their growing centre depth.

    Kopitar
    Vilardi
    Turcotte
    Thomas
    Madden.
    Kupari

    Every one of those players is a blue chip prospect behind Kopitar and you can add Kaliev to that mix on the wing where obviously some of the others will play.

    Since they will also be picking #2 in the upcoming draft it will be interesting if they go with Drysdale
    or grab another high end centre.

    Yeah…but #Flattop.

  24. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Yeah…but #Flattop.

    Yep…that’s an issue but I doubt he’s around for the coming out party.

  25. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Oh, they will get there.
    Even with all those contracts on the books they finished the season with almost $7 million in cap space and when Brown and Carter are done, that will free up another $11 million.
    Just take a look at their growing centre depth.
    Kopitar
    Vilardi
    Turcotte
    Thomas
    Madden.
    Kupari
    Every one of those players is a blue chip prospect behind Kopitar and you can add Kaliev to that mix on the wing where obviously some of the others will play.
    Since they will also be picking #2 in the upcoming draft it will be interesting if they go with Drysdale
    or grab another high end centre.

    Well we all know that promise doesn’t always translate into useful NHL players. But no question they have a nice prospect pool. If those player develop, and once those contracts drop off, maybe they can work themselves back into the playoff picture.

  26. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The players that returned from Europe were subject to a mandated quarantine upon arrival.

    Klef, Larsson, etc. will be Covid-free upon their introduction to the NHL phase 2 that is currently happening.

    Of course, they could be out and about in Edmonton doing whatever after training camp starts – much less likely to pick up Covid in Edmonton than, say, Phoenix though.

    Fair enough then, no concern about the Europeans (so they have to take off 2 weeks from training on return to NA?).

    I agree not forcing a quarentine during phase 3 increases the likelihood of introducing cases, that’s obvious. Players are and will continue being tested very regularly though so hopefully that catches things before any cases spread. I still have no idea how the MLB managed 1.2% positivity when the NHL and NBA are seemingly over 5%…

  27. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Yep…that’s an issue but I doubt he’s around for the coming out party.

    That sounds about right. His contract expires the same year as Kopitar’s. Only 35 year old Doughty (and the remnants of Mike Richards) will still be on the books at that point.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: You need to look beyond one season here.

    NYR will have abundant cap space when the Lunqvist $8.5 million vanishes and The Hattenkirk buyout flattens.

    CLB can weaponize it’s cap space in trades.

    Ditto WPG but the Jets are also loaded at forward and can parlay that into rebuilding the D.

    NJD are also going to get another high end forward at the draft and can also squeeze cap strapped teams in a buyers market

    The Kings already have the best prospect pool in the league with another couple of blue chip prospects about to be added. With the Brown and Carter contracts coming to an end, they will be awash in cap space with numerous young stars on ELCs.

    That is beyond one season
    Columbus has cap space but widely regarded very poorly by free agents even though its a great city. It’s also has very poor prospect depth from not cashing in on Panarin and Bob and buying Duchenne.

    Wpg Wheeler has started to slow down. Also a place that free agents really don’t want to go. Defense is not deep enough. Goalering kept them afloat this year.

    Kings have a lot of great prospects but a lot of boat anchors and core is ageing. Lots of boat anchors, a place free agents want to play though

    Rangers sure Hank will drop of in a year. This year they need to give Strome a pay raise and Deangelo will get at least 5 per. Next year Shesty needs a contract. Zibanejad is up in two years and will probably cost 9-10 mil per. Fox will also need a contract at that time and probably take up another 4. That cap space goes by quickly

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: That sounds about right. His contract expires the same year as Kopitar’s. Only 35 year old Doughty (and the remnants of Mike Richards) will still be on the books at that point.

    Beyond nice.
    https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-farm-system-ranked-1-by-the-hockey-writers/c-314485690

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: That is beyond one season
    Columbus has cap space but widely regarded very poorly by free agents even though its a great city.It’s also has very poor prospect depth from not cashing in on Panarin and Bob and buying Duchenne.

    Wpg Wheeler has started to slow down.Also a place that free agents really don’t want to go.Defense is not deep enough.Goalering kept them afloat this year.

    Kings have a lot of great prospects but a lot of boat anchors and core is ageing.Lots of boat anchors, a place free agents want to play though

    Rangers sure Hank will drop of in a year.This year they need to give Strome a pay raise and Deangelo will get at least 5 per.Next year Shesty needs a contract.Zibanejad is up in two years and will probably cost 9-10 mil per.Fox will also need a contract at that time and probably take up another 4.That cap space goes by quickly

    There are ways to weaponize cap space that don’t involve signing free agents.

  31. Munny says:

    New Improved Darkness: Wikipedia is my shepherd, I shall not want.
    It maketh me click into green pastures; it leadeth me beside moribund content.
    It restoreth my soul: it distingueth thy acronyms and initialisms for name’s sake;
    Yea, though I walk through the valley of dubious citation, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy diffs and thy revision history they comfort me.
    Thou preparest a table before me with sortable columns: thou anointest my table head with explanatory footnotes; my cup runneth over.
    Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of Wikipedia for ever.

    Very well done. Now I too must walk through the valley of dubious citation…

  32. Lowetide says:

    For @TheAthleticEDM Tough decisions face Oilers’ Ken Holland. The 2020-21 cap number runs Edmonton far too close before doing any upgrades. Holland won’t cut it this tight, it represents a full season of cap claustrophobia. I break it down here.

    https://theathletic.com/1908599/2020/07/04/lowetide-tough-decisions-face-oilers-ken-holland-as-cap-forces-painful-choices/

  33. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Beyond nice.

    The nicest.

  34. digger50 says:

    How will we fit in Taylor Hall?

  35. digger50 says:

    Hey, wasn’t Athanasiou a center at one point in Detroit?

    Could he be the elusive speedy third line center to build a line around? Say with Jessie P and Tyler Ennis?

  36. jp says:

    digger50:
    Hey, wasn’t Athanasiou a center at one point in Detroit?

    Could he be the elusive speedy third line center to build a line around? Say with Jessie P and Tyler Ennis?

    Only 13 games at the NHL level I think. Solid idea but it likely won’t happen.

  37. who says:

    Lowetide:
    For @TheAthleticEDMTough decisions face Oilers’ Ken Holland. The 2020-21 cap number runs Edmonton far too close before doing any upgrades. Holland won’t cut it this tight, it represents a full season of cap claustrophobia. I break it down here.

    https://theathletic.com/1908599/2020/07/04/lowetide-tough-decisions-face-oilers-ken-holland-as-cap-forces-painful-choices/

    I read the article.
    Don’t you think a flat cap for the next couple of years almost forces the Oilers to buy out Neal?
    3.8 million in extra cap space might give Holland enough wiggle room to actually improve the team. Or at least maintain the status quo.
    By the time the the 1.9 cap hit affects the cap in years 4 thru 6 the salary cap may have risen to offset it. Plus most of the other dead money will be off the books.
    Seems like a no brainer to me.

  38. Victoria Oil says:

    who: I read the article.
    Don’t you think a flat cap for the next couple of years almost forces the Oilers to buy out Neal?
    3.8 million in extra cap space might give Holland enough wiggle room to actually improve the team. Or at least maintain the status quo.
    By the time the the 1.9 cap hit affects the cap in years 4 thru 6 the salary cap may have risen to offset it. Plus most of the other dead money will be off the books.
    Seems like a no brainer to me.

    Buying out Neal is short-term gain, long-term pain. $1.9 million cap hit x 6 years is not how you build a successful long-term franchise. I’d wait at least a year before buying him out.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    Probably regretting that Kassian contract right now

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10:
    Mercifully, I don’t think Holland is a #NurseHater like half the Oilogosphere.

    The Oilers have a D with physicality (and durability)in a player who can actually play the modern NHL game.

    It is silly to develop a defensemen, and then trade him away as he enters the prime of his career.The Oilers have been making this mistake for nearly fifteen years now, giving up on and trading away players just as they enter their prime.

    This, more than anything else, has been the reason for the decade plus era of darkness.

    One cannot win sustainably unless the core of one’s team is between 25-29.Elite players arrive a couple of years earlier, and last a couple of years longer.

    Well put, thank you.

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: No room for an external 3C acquisition, like Soderberg, unless they can move on from Rusty.

    With the flat cap, there will be fewer teams able to take on his $4M, even with only a $1.5M cash outlay.

    I agree with this, the only way I see an upgrade at 3C happening is through trade – say Neal for Turris, or Russell for Anisimov.

  42. Lowetide says:

    who: I read the article.
    Don’t you think a flat cap for the next couple of years almost forces the Oilers to buy out Neal?
    3.8 million in extra cap space might give Holland enough wiggle room to actually improve the team. Or at least maintain the status quo.
    By the time the the 1.9 cap hit affects the cap in years 4 thru 6 the salary cap may have risen to offset it. Plus most of the other dead money will be off the books.
    Seems like a no brainer to me.

    If I’m guessing, dealing Russell is the play here. If you deal him for a pick, then that’s $4 million off the cap. Neal buyout might be needed next year when Nuge, Larsson and Yamamoto need to be signed but that can wait probably.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    20m in cap space and all those picks. All they had to do was use the picks and be opportunistic. Sigh. MacT made several mistakes biggest of which was his handling of Petry imo. But he woulda done a better job than PC

    I was one of Petry’s biggest supporters during his time as an Oiler – simply didn’t understand those that didn’t like him because he wasn’t physical enough (yes, there were quite a few who didn’t think Petry was legit as a top 4 and many cited lack of physical nature).

    Of course, MacT forcing himself to deal Petry cause the future GM to acquire Adam Larsson as a RD……

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: No doubt about it the biggest mistake in franchise historywas the hiring of the snake oilsalesman, nut bar, backstabbing, righteous wannabe guru Eakins. He turnedthe Oiler Logo into alaughing stock world wide it’s taken 5 years to finally get his stink off of this once proud franchise.

    The Oilers had missed the playoffs for seven straight years prior to Eakins.

    The Oilers were well on their way to being a “laughing stock” prior to Eakins.

    Not to defend Eakins, he was truly awful, however, the hiring was fairly lauded at the time – Eakins being quite well thought of coming out of the AHL.

    I think Eakins has learned from his time in Edmonton, as a rookie head coach in the NHL, but I am still quite enthused, as an Oiler fan, that he is behind the bench it Anaheim.

    I feel that Todd Nelson is a bit over-rated by Oiler fans but glad Eakins got the job over Nelson.

  45. who says:

    Lowetide: If I’m guessing, dealing Russell is the play here. If you deal him for a pick, then that’s $4 million off the cap. Neal buyout might be needed next year when Nuge, Larsson and Yamamoto need to be signed but that can wait probably.

    Oh absolutely.
    If you can deal Russell for a 7th round pick, you do it yesterday.
    I’m just not sure I see any team willing to make that trade, given how precious cap space is becoming.

  46. who says:

    Victoria Oil: Buying out Neal is short-term gain, long-term pain. $1.9 million cap hit x 6 years is not how you build a successful long-term franchise. I’d wait at least a year before buying him out.

    Yep.
    Short term gain with long term pain.
    But don’t you think the Oilers next 3 years are kind of important? The window is opening now.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    With the new CBA extension becoming clearer I have updated my win the Autumn list for Holland;

    1. Convince Puljujarvi to come give it one more shot. He would be a value contact, in mid season form and has a higher upside than any likely return.

    2. Trade Benning & Chiason to Ottawa for their own 2nd round pick. Ottawa is desperate for defense Benning is a good one and inexpensive to boot.

    3. Trade Russell to Vancouver for Brandon Sutter, with Vancouver retaining to make the Cap hit even. Both are poor value contracts but Oilers LHD depth and Van’s Center depth mean at least these boat anchors will be in more useful areas for each team.

    4. Sign Bear to a medium term contract. It no longer makes sense for players to try and bridge into the next CBA, as the CBA has been bridged. A 5 year 20M contact heavy on the yearly signing bonus, for which Bear can reside in a low tax jurisdiction.

    And finally Oilers fans should gird your loins for a Nurse trade next summer. I love the big lug, but he will be looking for top pairing D money. Nurse to Seattle so they take Neal would open up >12M in cap space, vital in a cap stagnant world, and allow for things like signing Nuge forever.

    1) 100% on board with Jesse signing his QO and coming to camp to compete for a job – preferably after a few months of competition in Liiga, as you mention

    2) Would be happy if they could move on from Chiasson and replace him in the lineup with Benson (cap savings of apx $1.3M).

    To the extent Benning is moved, I think they do need to have a veteran 3RD added, be it Green for cheap (i.e. less than $2M), or another. I think Bouch is ready but he should have to “win the job” and, well, injuries happen and, when they do, we don’t want him all of a sudden forced in to top 4 minutes if Bear or Larsson go down.

    I can’t say if Ottawa has any interest in that deal.

    A different type of deal I’ll throw out there – Benning plus for Tierney…….. that plus could be Jesse potentially.

    3) Yup, if Rusty can’t be moved for the cap space – bloated contract for bloated contract makes sense – acquire a 3C on a bloated contract in exchange for the 3LD in the bloated contract (3LD that is 4LD on this team). The west coast is a jurisdiction Rusty may waive for (or not have on his block list).

    4) I don’t think there is any reasonable way to fit Bear in for term. I think they need to bridge him and could get him below $2M

    5) Yes, 2021/22 is going to be tougher to deal with, as I’ve mentioned. Nuge needs to be re-signed (maybe just a moderate raise does it though), Yamamoto will need to be re-signed, potentially Bear again. Larsson comes off the books but they may want to retain him. There is a lot of money to spend that off-season, yes, lots comes off the books but lots will come on. We’ll need to see where we get to with Jones this season (and Sammy, Broberg, Lensstrom, etc.) but dealing Nurse is something that may have to be contemplated. Not now though.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Mercifully, I don’t think Holland is a #NurseHater like half the Oilogosphere.

    The Oilers have a D with physicality (and durability)in a player who can actually play the modern NHL game.

    It is silly to develop a defensemen, and then trade him away as he enters the prime of his career.The Oilers have been making this mistake for nearly fifteen years now, giving up on and trading away players just as they enter their prime.

    This, more than anything else, has been the reason for the decade plus era of darkness.

    One cannot win sustainably unless the core of one’s team is between 25-29.Elite players arrive a couple of years earlier, and last a couple of years longer.

    I don’t want to move Nurse. I am far from a Nurse-hater. I also acknowledge the cap situation of the Oilers and that they are likely going to have to move on from an important incumbent at some point.

    It may not need to be Nurse but it may be as well.

    Various factors go in including the drop off between the player moved and the incumbent (i.e. less at Nurse’s position than moving Nuge, most likely).

    I would like them to be able to keep all of McDavid, Drai, Yamamoto, Nuge, Bear, Klef, Nurse for the next 5 years but I’m not sure if it will be feasible.

    We will know more in 10 months.

  49. Eh Team says:

    Lowetide: If I’m guessing, dealing Russell is the play here. If you deal him for a pick, then that’s $4 million off the cap. Neal buyout might be needed next year when Nuge, Larsson and Yamamoto need to be signed but that can wait probably.

    If they can deal Russell that would be great. But even if they do, I’d still buy out Neal. Saves you $4m off the cap the next 3 years, costs $2m for the three years after. So savings of $6m and you can replace Neal with a $1m player for the next three years. Just sub Benson in, saves you $ and Benson will be a better player than Neal over the next three years too.

    Getting away from the Russell and Neal contract for next year gives the Oilers some flexibility as there will be lots of cheap free agents out there.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: As I said, look beyond one season.
    Lundqvist has one year left at $8.5 million, then he’s gone.

    Sure so we agree they this doesn’t apply to them this off-season.

  51. godot10 says:

    digger50:
    How will we fit in Taylor Hall?

    Hall is going to Calgary. Gaudreau to New Jersey.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Oh, they will get there.
    Even with all those contracts on the books they finished the season with almost $7 million in cap space and when Brown and Carter are done, that will free up another $11 million.

    Just take a look at their growing centre depth.

    Kopitar
    Vilardi
    Turcotte
    Thomas
    Madden.
    Kupari

    Every one of those players is a blue chip prospect behind Kopitar and you can add Kaliev to that mix on the wing where obviously some of the others will play.

    Since they will also be picking #2 in the upcoming draft it will be interesting if they go with Drysdale
    or grab another high end centre.

    A bit of a loose use of the phrase “blue-chip”, no?

    Kupari is indeed a nice prospect. Of course, he had a much worse rookie season in the AHL at 19 than Jesse Puljujarvi did at 18.

    Nice prospect. Definitely not “can’t-miss” which I equate to blue-chip.

    Akil Thomas is also a nice prospect but far from “blue chip”.

    Unless, of course, the likes of Ryan McLeod and Rafael Lavoie are blue chip prospects????

  53. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The Oilers had missed the playoffs for seven straight years prior to Eakins.

    The Oilers were well on their way to being a “laughing stock” prior to Eakins.

    Not to defend Eakins, he was truly awful, however, the hiring was fairly lauded at the time – Eakins being quite well thought of coming out of the AHL.

    I think Eakins has learned from his time in Edmonton, as a rookie head coach in the NHL, but I am still quite enthused, as an Oiler fan, that he is behind the bench it Anaheim.

    I feel that Todd Nelson is a bit over-rated by Oiler fans but glad Eakins got the job over Nelson.

    Eakins ran a PR campaign for himself by kissing up to the Toronto media.

    With the same players, in 2014-2015, Eakins ran at bout a 55 point pace, Nelson at a 75 point pace.
    Hall was injured for half of Nelson’s tenure. And Petry was gone after the trade deadline…again almost half of Nelson’s tenure.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Fair enough then, no concern about the Europeans (so they have to take off 2 weeks from training on return to NA?).

    I agree not forcing a quarentine during phase 3 increases the likelihood of introducing cases, that’s obvious. Players are and will continue being tested very regularly though so hopefully that catches things before any cases spread. I still have no idea how the MLB managed 1.2% positivity when the NHL and NBA are seemingly over 5%…

    It sure does increase the likelihood and, yes, daily testing will be huge.

    With that said, I believe a person can have the virus and test negative.

    I’m not overly concerned with Nurse and Connor going for bite to eat during camp in Edmonton (although I truly hope they don’t) but those that are in Tampa, Dallas, Vegas, Phoenix, St. Louis, Minnesota, I sure am worried about them going out and about in those jurisdictions near the end of camp.

    They very well could contract the virus, test negative and be in the hub for a few days prior to testing positive – I think.

    That simply can’t happen and there is a way to ensure that it doesn’t (well, subject to players not adhering to mandated protocols) and, from accounts, its not going to be the case.

    Blah!

  55. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: A bit of a loose use of the phrase “blue-chip”, no?

    Kupari is indeed a nice prospect.Of course, he had a much worse rookie season in the AHL at 19 than Jesse Puljujarvi did at 18.

    Nice prospect.Definitely not “can’t-miss” which I equate to blue-chip.

    Akil Thomas is also a nice prospect but far from “blue chip”.

    Unless, of course, the likes of Ryan McLeod and Rafael Lavoie are blue chip prospects????

    Get a grip.

    You’re pointing out the bottom of the LAK prospect pool and trying to equate them to the Oilers BEST prospects.

    The Kings have better prospects, sometimes in multiple positions, than the Oilers.

    For example, Bjornfot is already an NHL player while your darling Bouchard is way down the depth chart.

    Never mind that LA is likely to draft Drysdale who by all accounts is NHL ready and projects easily as a top pairing D.

    Players like Benson and Lavoie would only get “ also in photo” mentions on LAs list.

    Scott Wheeler believes the Kings have the top four prospects in all of hockey and they’re about to draft another one.

    Here…educate yourself:

    https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-prospect-pool-ranked-1-in-nhl-by-the-athletic/c-314918132

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Hey, wasn’t Athanasiou a center at one point in Detroit?

    Could he be the elusive speedy third line center to build a line around? Say with Jessie P and Tyler Ennis?

    I can’t say how much center he played but he did have a couple seasons with 200 plus faceoffs – of course, he was worse than Nuge on his ELC level bad on faceoffs.

    Doesn’t really strike me as a center type player.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Victoria Oil: Buying out Neal is short-term gain, long-term pain. $1.9 million cap hit x 6 years is not how you build a successful long-term franchise. I’d wait at least a year before buying him out.

    I 100% agree with this.

    I think there is currently enough money to bring back the current team (give or take Sheahan) – Bear on a 1-year deal, Benning (or Green to replace him at Benning’s money), Ennis as similar cap hit, back-up goalie at Smith’s rate.

    If we take the current projected starting lineup in Game 1, Nygard and Haas are extras. So replace Sheahan in the lineup with Haas (also on the PK which he was apparently quite good at in Europe) – leaves Nygard and Benson as the 13/14F.

    In order to “improve” – the 3C addition – Holland either needs to be able to get cap space for Russell (and sign a Soderbeg) or flip Russell for a Sutter.

    I would wait a year to buy out Neal at this point.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Probably regretting that Kassian contract right now

    Many thought that Holland should wait but, from reason, he really wanted to get it done by the deadline.

    No way Kass gets that term or AAV this off-season the way things have gone.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: If I’m guessing, dealing Russell is the play here. If you deal him for a pick, then that’s $4 million off the cap. Neal buyout might be needed next year when Nuge, Larsson and Yamamoto need to be signed but that can wait probably.

    Agree on this 100% – just don’t think dealing Russell for a pick and getting a clean $4M is reasonable – unfortunately.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Oh absolutely.
    If you can deal Russell for a 7th round pick, you do it yesterday.
    I’m just not sure I see any team willing to make that trade, given how precious cap space is becoming.

    There are maybe a couple that would aren’t handcuffed by the cap and would like Rusty at $1.5M of real dollars but I don’t see Rusty agreeing to go to Ottawa or Florida (where management has been directed to shed cash commitments) or Jersey.

  61. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Get a grip.

    You’re pointing out the bottom of the LAK prospect pool and trying to equate them to the Oilers BEST prospects.

    The Kings have better prospects, sometimes in multiple positions, than the Oilers.

    For example, Bjornfot is already an NHL player while your darling Bouchard is way down the depth chart.

    Never mind that LA is likely to draft Drysdale who by all accounts is NHL ready and projects easily as a top pairing D.

    Players like Benson and Lavoie would only get “ also in photo” mentions on LAs list.

    Scott Wheeler believes the Kings have the top four prospects in all of hockey and they’re about to draft another one.

    Here…educate yourself:

    https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-prospect-pool-ranked-1-in-nhl-by-the-athletic/c-314918132

    I love the Kings prospect pool
    But their pro defense after Drew is absolutely godawful
    Getting 3 games in as a warm body and being -4 is not proof of superiority

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: I love the Kings prospect pool
    But their pro defense after Drew is absolutely godawful
    Getting 3 games in as a warm body and being -4 is not proof of superiority

    Yeah, their D still needs some work but Drysdale should fix that right up.

    Kyle Clague is close and, of course they will have a bounty of forwards to trade should that need arise.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Get a grip.

    You’re pointing out the bottom of the LAK prospect pool and trying to equate them to the Oilers BEST prospects.

    The Kings have better prospects, sometimes in multiple positions, than the Oilers.

    For example, Bjornfot is already an NHL player while your darling Bouchard is way down the depth chart.

    Never mind that LA is likely to draft Drysdale who by all accounts is NHL ready and projects easily as a top pairing D.

    Players like Benson and Lavoie would only get “ also in photo” mentions on LAs list.

    Scott Wheeler believes the Kings have the top four prospects in all of hockey and they’re about to draft another one.

    Here…educate yourself:

    https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-prospect-pool-ranked-1-in-nhl-by-the-athletic/c-314918132

    Of course, as usual, you take my post an infer meaning that isn’t there.

    I never said the Kings don’t have an elite prospect pool.

    I was simply retorting to you statement that a list provided was all “blue-chip prospects” as I don’t agree.

    If you don’t think McLeod and Lavoie are blue-chip prospects then there is no reasonable way to cite akil Thomas as one.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah, their D still needs some work but Drysdale should fix that right up.

    Kyle Clague is close and, of course they will have a bounty of forwards to trade should that need arise.

    Well they also need that bounty of forwards
    But being a desirable location will help them turn that team around

    Wheeler and those guys have severely handicapped the oilers prospects for years. Which I get as for years they couldn’t turn out but they continue to do so. Last year he had Yamamoto bear and Jones as the top but rated bear and Jones as would be the 6-7th best prospect at best on the flames and Yamamoto not top 3. I called him out that he was going to look silly soon and he did
    Just like Pronman with his Pettersson and heiskanen rankings

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Get a grip.

    You’re pointing out the bottom of the LAK prospect pool and trying to equate them to the Oilers BEST prospects.

    The Kings have better prospects, sometimes in multiple positions, than the Oilers.

    For example, Bjornfot is already an NHL player while your darling Bouchard is way down the depth chart.

    Never mind that LA is likely to draft Drysdale who by all accounts is NHL ready and projects easily as a top pairing D.

    Players like Benson and Lavoie would only get “ also in photo” mentions on LAs list.

    Scott Wheeler believes the Kings have the top four prospects in all of hockey and they’re about to draft another one.

    Here…educate yourself:

    https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-prospect-pool-ranked-1-in-nhl-by-the-athletic/c-314918132

    That is a very deceptive statistics feed
    Since you posted that link you know for a fact that the Kong’s don’t have the top 4 prospects in hockey and there’s a big gap between “the top 4 prospects and 4 of the better prospects”.
    Because in fact as good as their prospect pool is they don’t have any of the top 4 prospects by the same ranking you listed
    The top 4 are Zegras Cozens Byram Caufield

    The Kings own #7 Kaliyev #15 Turcotte
    But look who is in the same bracket as Turcotte, is that the very crappy Bouchard!!!

    We all know they have a prospect pool everyone dreams of. There’s no reason to make things up

  66. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Victoria Oil:
    The trading up with picks #30 and #36 to take Riley Nash at #21 still irks me. I don’t know where Nash stood on Bob MacKenzie’s best player available listbut I do know that he wasn’t close to where the Oilers had him. I’m pretty sure the Oilers could still have got him or a better player at #30 and still had #36 in their pocket.

    The Glory boys viewed players as their high school girlfriends.

    Once the crush was on they had lizard brain, once it was off, total despise.

  67. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:

    Scott Wheeler believes the Kings have the top four prospects in all of hockey and they’re about to draft another one.

    Here…educate yourself:

    https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-prospect-pool-ranked-1-in-nhl-by-the-athletic/c-314918132

    Haha. Wut?

  68. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: There are maybe a couple that would aren’t handcuffed by the cap and would like Rusty at $1.5M of real dollars but I don’t see Rusty agreeing to go to Ottawa or Florida (where management has been directed to shed cash commitments) or Jersey.

    I agree this won’t be easy for Holland. But the reality is that Russell HAS to submit a list of 15 teams he can be traded to. Every time this is discussed folks say he wouldn’t go there, or there, or there. But he can’t veto going everywhere.

    What 15 teams do you figure Russell would put on his list? Once you or someone else guesses at what his 15 team list might look like, maybe we can have a closer look to see if there are plausible fits or not.

    Everyone assumes Calgary, Vancouver and Winnipeg because they’re “close” to home. And assumes Nashville because he wears cowboy boots. So say those 4 are his most preferred, he still needs to pick 11 more teams. He likely doesn’t want to go to any of the other places, but he still has to pick the ones that are better than the rest.

    I have zero clue what those other teams would be, maybe others have insights (did he fricking love his time in Dallas? does he want to win the cup real badly? does he like the beach? will he just picking teams that make it the hardest to move him??)

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: I agree this won’t be easy for Holland. But the reality is that Russell HAS to submit a list of 15 teams he can be traded to. Every time this is discussed folks say he wouldn’t go there, or there, or there. But he can’t veto going everywhere.

    What 15 teams do you figure Russell would put on his list? Once you or someone else guesses at what his 15 team list might look like, maybe we can have a closer look to see if there are plausible fits or not.

    Everyone assumes Calgary, Vancouver and Winnipeg because they’re “close” to home. And assumes Nashville because he wears cowboy boots. So say those 4 are his most preferred, he still needs to pick 11 more teams. He likely doesn’t want to go to any of the other places, but he still has to pick the ones that are better than the rest.

    I have zero clue what those other teams would be, maybe others have insights (did he fricking love his time in Dallas? does he want to win the cup real badly? does he like the beach? will he just picking teams that make it the hardest to move him??)

    Russell and his agent will pick 15 teams that neither want him or need him.

    The only way to move the contract is to take back another toxic contract or add a sweetener that gets another team’s attention.

  70. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: That is a very deceptive statistics feed
    Since you posted that link you know for a fact that the Kong’s don’t have the top 4 prospects in hockey and there’s a big gap between “the top 4 prospects and 4 of the better prospects”.
    Because in fact as good as their prospect pool is they don’t have any of the top 4 prospects by the same ranking you listed
    The top 4 are Zegras Cozens Byram Caufield

    The Kings own #7 Kaliyev #15 Turcotte
    But look who is in the same bracket as Turcotte,is that the very crappy Bouchard!!!

    We all know they have a prospect pool everyone dreams of.There’s no reason to make things up

    Try and appreciate the aggregate.

    No team is even close.

  71. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Russell and his agent will pick 15 teams that neither want him or need him.

    The only way to move the contract is to take back another toxic contract or add a sweetener that gets another team’s attention.

    Shall we go through the exercise? I’d pick 15 teams myself but then folks like you would just say “no, he’d never pick those teams”. I don’t know what it will look like, but it would be great to have someone try to pick 15 teams that “neither want him or need him”. Then we can look and see if that’s entirely true or not.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I agree this won’t be easy for Holland. But the reality is that Russell HAS to submit a list of 15 teams he can be traded to. Every time this is discussed folks say he wouldn’t go there, or there, or there. But he can’t veto going everywhere.

    What 15 teams do you figure Russell would put on his list? Once you or someone else guesses at what his 15 team list might look like, maybe we can have a closer look to see if there are plausible fits or not.

    Everyone assumes Calgary, Vancouver and Winnipeg because they’re “close” to home. And assumes Nashville because he wears cowboy boots. So say those 4 are his most preferred, he still needs to pick 11 more teams. He likely doesn’t want to go to any of the other places, but he still has to pick the ones that are better than the rest.

    I have zero clue what those other teams would be, maybe others have insights (did he fricking love his time in Dallas? does he want to win the cup real badly? does he like the beach? will he just picking teams that make it the hardest to move him??)

    Your point is valid but this work has been done by some members of this community in the last while (I apologize, can’t remember who) and the consensus was, if Rusty wanted to dig in, he could full his can’t block a trade list with teams that either wouldn’t need him at all and/or don’t have the cap space.

    The work might be a bit out-dated but I don’t imagine a changed result if the analysis was re-done now.

    You never know though – maybe Rusty would be more amenable to moving to a team that would give him more playing time – With only a one-year term it would help him with another contract and, well, its only for one year.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Russell and his agent will pick 15 teams that neither want him or need him.

    The only way to move the contract is to take back another toxic contract or add a sweetener that gets another team’s attention.

    This very well may be the case but another toxic contract at a position of need helps the team.

    As we’ve discussed, a Rusty for Sutter trade is something that could work for the Oilers – possibly for the nucks as well, in particular if Tanev is moving on which is likely.

    Of course, JP understands the premise but, I believe, may be questioning the hypothesis – perhaps after trying to weaponize his list, there may still be some teams interested.

    I would love to have someone “show the work” and, nope, I don’t have the inclination to do it myself.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Shall we go through the exercise? I’d pick 15 teams myself but then folks like you would just say “no, he’d never pick those teams”. I don’t know what it will look like, but it would be great to have someone try to pick 15 teams that “neither want him or need him”. Then we can look and see if that’s entirely true or not.

    Anaheim
    Arizona
    Boston
    Buffalo
    Calgary
    Columbus
    Colorado
    Dallas
    Florida
    Minnesota
    New York Islanders
    New York Rangers
    Philadephia
    Nashville
    Los Angeles
    Vancouver

    That’s 17

    Ottawa might take him with a sweetener.

  75. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Anaheim
    Arizona
    Boston
    Buffalo
    Calgary
    Columbus
    Colorado
    Dallas
    Florida
    Minnesota
    New York Islanders
    New York Rangers
    Philadephia
    Nashville
    Los Angeles
    Vancouver

    That’s 17

    Ottawa might take him with a sweetener.

    Thank you.

    Since Russell will submit a 15 team trade list, could you settle on 15? I won’t argue, just want to start with a plausible scenario that fits with reality.

    And to be 100% clear, 15 teams Russell will accept being traded to.

  76. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: This very well may be the case but another toxic contract at a position of need helps the team.

    As we’ve discussed, a Rusty for Sutter trade is something that could work for the Oilers – possibly for the nucks as well, in particular if Tanev is moving on which is likely.

    Of course, JP understands the premise but, I believe, may be questioning the hypothesis – perhaps after trying to weaponize his list, there may still be some teams interested.

    I would love to have someone “show the work” and, nope, I don’t have the inclination to do it myself.

    Russell and Tanev are not in the same conversation.

    Tanev is a RHD as are Stetcher and Rafferty.

    If the Canucks are interested in a third pairing LHD they might be interested in Russell if they can move another contract like Sutter or Beagle.

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Thank you.

    Since Russell will submit a 15 team trade list, could you settle on 15? I won’t argue, just want to start with a plausible scenario that fits with reality.

    And to be 100% clear, 15 teams Russell will accept being traded to.

    I would expect the teams Russell would agree to be traded to are all WC teams.

    None of them need or want him.

  78. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: I would expect the teams Russell would agree to be traded to are all WC teams.

    None of them need or want him.

    Haha, what’s you list above then? The teams that would take him? Or wouldn’t?

    It’s a mix of EC and WC teams so it’s clearly not what you think his “15 team trade list” will be…

    If “WC teams” is your answer that’s only 14. Still need to pick 1 more.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Russell and Tanev are not in the same conversation.

    Tanev is a RHD as are Stetcher and Rafferty.

    If the Canucks are interested in a third pairing LHD they might be interested in Russell if they can move another contract like Sutter or Beagle.

    I understand that Tanev is a right shot D, however, if he moves on from the Canucks, which is likely, the organization may be looking for a veteran replacement.

    Rafferty is an AHL d-man until he proves otherwise – at 25 years old, he best start to prove that now.

    I don’t know what you are getting at with your last sentence – I as expressly suggesting Russell for Sutter.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I would expect the teams Russell would agree to be traded to are all WC teams.

    None of them need or want him.

    Is this fact or your opinion?

    Winnipeg could very well be interested in him.

  81. Side says:

    Harpers Hair: I would expect the teams Lucic would agree to be traded to are all WC teams.

    None of them need or want him.

    Hmm….

  82. dessert1111 says:

    The Russell situation could go a few ways. Worst case scenario for the Oilers is he absolutely doesn’t want to leave and strategically picks the teams closest to the cap for his trade list.

    Holland might talk to him to say he sees him as a 7/8 D for next year, meaning he’d spend half the season in the press box. maybe Russell hears that and is more open to a trade. There are a lot of moving pieces. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s still on the team next year or traded. I think he’s still a pretty good player for under 2m.

  83. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Your point is valid but this work has been done by some members of this community in the last while (I apologize, can’t remember who) and the consensus was, if Rusty wanted to dig in, he could full his can’t block a trade list with teams that either wouldn’t need him at all and/or don’t have the cap space.

    The work might be a bit out-dated but I don’t imagine a changed result if the analysis was re-done now.

    You never know though – maybe Rusty would be more amenable to moving to a team that would give him more playing time – With only a one-year term it would help him with another contract and, well, its only for one year.

    Yeah I mostly remember a lot of statements like “Holland won’t be able to move him” and “he can just fill his list with teams that can’t/won’t take him and he can block a trade” without much more substantive. To be fair there are/were some here who also thought the Oilers could get assets for Russell in a trade.

    I don’t remember this being done recently or convincingly. And recent may matter since the 1 vs 2 years remaining is a factor (compared to last off-season). And his trade list this year is 15 teams vs 10 teams last year. The lower actual salary this season could matter too.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    The problem is, he’s not for under $2M, he’s for $4M – cap hit is all I care about.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    “IF Holland wants to trade Russell he will have no problem. What return we can’t possibly know.

    The cap hit and payout, one year left, experience, fit for the modern game, etc etc,

    This isn’t Tambo or Chia dealing.

    The contract was designed for this.

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: I would expect the teams Russell would agree to be traded to are all WC teams.

    None of them need or want him.

    Oddfellow, or Loyal Fellow of Eagles?

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    “IF Holland wants to trade Russell he will have no problem. What return we can’t possibly know.

    The cap hit and payout, one year left, experience, fit for the modern game, etc etc,

    This isn’t Tambo or Chia dealing.

    The contract was designed for this.

    2/3 of the league was within a few hundred grand of the upper cap limit last year or in to LTIR relief.

    There are very few teams that aren’t mitigate by the upper cap limit and Rusty comes with a contract where he is not value for his cap hit.

    As we’ve discussed, there are likely a few teams that aren’t mitigated by the upper cap limit and may see value in him for $1.5M real dollars but I don’t think there are many of those teams and, if he and has agent want, they can be smart and block most of those teams.

    The options may be few and it may be for Rusty to decide if he wants to take a year and play in an “undesirable location” for playing time in the name of his next contract or be 7D-8D on the Oilers and likely reduce his value for his next contract. He may choose option 2 knowing that, with injuries and a condensed schedule, he’ll probably end up playing more games than not.

  88. buck yoakam says:

    I’m thinking the kings trade that pick for boogerhead rafalsky from the canucks and this solves all defence issues for years to come!

  89. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    “IF Holland wants to trade Russell he will have no problem. What return we can’t possibly know.

    The cap hit and payout, one year left, experience, fit for the modern game, etc etc,

    This isn’t Tambo or Chia dealing.

    The contract was designed for this.

    Don’t forget that cap space is an expensive commodity and teams charge accordingly.

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