Craig MacTavish is easily the most quotable coach/manager in the history of the Edmonton Oilers. I’ve been told that my criticism of MacT in past years was over the top, perhaps that’s true. If you read his words, hard to understand how he fell short. Here’s an example, a quote from the 2014-15 season:
“It (absence of drafted players from later rounds) undermines the performance of everything we do on and off the ice, and it has to get better. From the minute we took over we focused on improving our draft record. We’ve worked hard to improve all of our draft processes. We are more regionally focused. There’s more of an emphasis on getting to know the players, interviewing the players. We’ve integrated a lot of analytics into our decision making. We’ve integrated a lot of technology into our video scouting. We’ve got more management now in the field communicating with our scouts. We’ve got a draft philosophy since I took over in an effort to improve our draft record. Last year’s draft (2014) is tough to evaluate because we didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. The draft before (2013) I think we’ve added a lot of pieces & a lot of things that we needed.”
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
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- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s second Oilers draft should deliver high-octane offence
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- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
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- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
THE 2007 DRAFT
The real culprit in the 2014-15 Oilers season was the 2007 draft. Kevin Prendergast presided over the draft 2001-07 for Edmonton and there were many problems—including several years when the team didn’t have an AHL club.
The 2007 draft came at a time when Edmonton badly needed to replenish the system, a problem that wasn’t solved when MacT took over over five years later. In 2007 summer, the Oilers were only one year removed from the 2006 SCF but the NHL roster was wobbly in many places and Ryan Smyth had left town.
The Oilers entered the draft with: The No. 6, No. 15, No. 30 and No. 36 overall picks.
A tremendous need for help everywhere meant the scouting department had all kinds of options available. Let’s review what they did at each point in the draft and how it has impacted the team since that weekend.
NUMBER SIX OVERALL
Before the draft, we discussed (on this blog) Edmonton getting one of Sam Gagner or Jakub Voracek at No. 6 overall. As it turned out, the LA Kings chose Thomas Hickey out of order, and the Oilers were left with their choice of the two players they coveted (well, Prendergast kept saying things about Karl Alzner but I digress). Edmonton chose wrong (Voracek>Gagner) but Gagner has enjoyed a solid career. Lowe and Prendergast didn’t get full value from No. 6 overall but did get value. Per 82 NHL games over his career, Gagner scored 16-29-45.
NO 15 OVERALL
Alex Plante didn’t work out—there were injury issues from the beginning, at the first rookie camp before main camp—but the idea of a big, strong defender with some offense was certainly defensible. The error with this selection: BPA. The club should have taken Cherepanov, and the fact the young man died tragically doesn’t change the point of BPA.
Plante was not the best defenseman still on the board (Subban), we know that today. What we knew draft day is that Plante wasn’t the best value at No. 15 and they should have either traded down or taken a more highly rated player. Ian Cole and Jonathan Blum were available and chosen shortly after Plante.
My other issue with this pick: Mobility. Plante’s problem, beyond the concussions, was his ability to change direction. It was like watching a big rig turn around in a phone booth: awkward, slow and exasperating.
NO 21 OVERALL: RILEY NASH
One of the things I’ve come to appreciate over these years is Red Line Report. Kyle Woodlief’s chat on USA Today draft week 2007: At Red Line, our staff loves Riley Nash, and I think he could go off the board possibly as high as #15 overall. A really well schooled, all-around player who can play it any way you want.
The choice at No. 21 was shocking because Edmonton gave up No. 30 and No. 36 to get a checking forward, a MacTavish, a player who would never play for them. The trade up, in draft value, was a massive overpayment but might have been justified had they chosen Max Pacioretty or David Perron. Edmonton had a real chance for skill in the first round, but only one of the three picks was devoted to that side of the game. Nash, for his NHL career, is averaging 9-16-25 over 541 games. Aim for the heavens in the first round.
FEBRUARY 1, 2015
I wrote the following about MacT and the 2015 draft on the first of February that year:
The Oilers have three high picks this coming draft, they currently hold No. 2, No. 23 and No. 32 overall picks (rest of season and lottery to come). I think they need to take three forwards, the best offensive options available, and avoid any of the second tier leagues. That’s BCJHL (for the love of God Almighty), AJHL, SJHL, MJHL, OPJHL, USHL, NAHL, all of it. They should draft players in the first three selections from the CHL, NCAA or Europe.
They should NOT factor in how many years they have to make a decision, that’s a chicken play when you’re drafting this high. They should NOT take any player in those three selections who hasn’t shown a clear ability to impact the offense. Full stop.
On the day Bob Green, Scott Howson and Craig MacTavish sit down to make the final list (I assume Stu MacGregor and the scouts will have been fired into the sun by the Nicholson cannon), they need to pay heed to the following:
- No size AND skating issues, no matter the talent
- No insane reaches
- No packaging up No. 23 and No. 32 to get to No. 17 (that isn’t value)
- No BCJHL or any other JHL
- No one with a long list of injuries already
- NO GOALIES (they won’t listen to this one)
- No picks that have questionable offensive resumes. This draft is deep enough to score three magnificent talents.
I think they should walk into the room and take (based on where they are now) Jack Eichel, Anthony Beauvillier and Jake DeBrusk.
THE 2015 DRAFT
I thought the Oilers should have held on to those picks but new general manager Peter Chiarelli went in a different direction. It’s unfair to say progress was flat though, as the summer 2015 list, with help from the MacT years, has some stunning talent at the top and the beginnings of true depth on defense and at center. Here’s my top 20 from 2015 summer.
- (NR) C Connor McDavid. The franchise.
- (1) C Leon Draisaitl. I love his passing, he’s a wonderful player.
- (2) D Darnell Nurse. Nurse does appear to have the full range of skills.
- (NR) D Griffin Reinhart. Big defender (6.04, 217) was a dominant junior player.
- (4) C Bogdan Yakimov. Big C impressed during TC, then struggled offensively for long stretches.
- (5) W Iiro Pakarinen. 6.01, 205 winger with grit and skill.
- (9) C Kyle Platzer. He emerged as a genuine NHL prospect in his final junior year.
- (6) C-R Greg Chase. Gritty forward with offensive ability.
- (17) L Anton Slepyshev. Slepyshev scored 15 goals in a tough damn league playing 12:26 a night.
- (NR) D Ethan Bear. Good skater, makes pinpoint passes, good decisions, calm feet and can hit hard.
- (16) G Laurent Brossoit. Brossoit’s numbers (.918SP) suggest an actual goalie prospect on the horizon.
- (14) D Joey Laleggia. Quality offensive defenseman at the NCAA level.
- (8) D Dillon Simpson. The jump from college to pro was a big challenge early for the young defender.
- (NR) G Eetu Laurikainen. A .933SP in any league is exceptional.
- (29) R Andrew Miller. Reminds many of Mark Arcobello and may win a utility role in 2015-16.
- (22) D Jordan Oesterle. He’s fast! You have to respect a player with wheels.
- (NR) D Caleb Jones. A mobile defender with a reputation for being a very good passer.
- (7) C Jujhar Khaira. If he could only score a little more, Khaira would be much higher on this list.
- (10) R Tyler Pitlick. I think he may need a second organization.
- (15) D William Lagesson. Physical defenseman with a reputation for being solid in coverage.
Who gets credit for the 2015 draft, after McDavid? I addressed this the other day, but it did take a village that included Chiarelli, MacT, Howson, even the departed MacGregor. MacT was directly responsible for Draisaitl, Nurse, Yakimov, Pakarinen, Platzer, Chase, Slepyshev, Brossoit (via trade), Oesterle and Lagesson.
I think MacTavish is a smart guy and if he’d been given more time it’s possible he would have been a successful general manager. He was a quality coach and did some fine work in the GM’s chair despite lacking experience. He contributed significantly to the Oilers team you see today.
Don’t forget that cap space is an expensive commodity and teams charge accordingly.
I’m thinking the kings trade that pick for boogerhead rafalsky from the canucks and this solves all defence issues for years to come!
2/3 of the league was within a few hundred grand of the upper cap limit last year or in to LTIR relief.
There are very few teams that aren’t mitigate by the upper cap limit and Rusty comes with a contract where he is not value for his cap hit.
As we’ve discussed, there are likely a few teams that aren’t mitigated by the upper cap limit and may see value in him for $1.5M real dollars but I don’t think there are many of those teams and, if he and has agent want, they can be smart and block most of those teams.
The options may be few and it may be for Rusty to decide if he wants to take a year and play in an “undesirable location” for playing time in the name of his next contract or be 7D-8D on the Oilers and likely reduce his value for his next contract. He may choose option 2 knowing that, with injuries and a condensed schedule, he’ll probably end up playing more games than not.
Oddfellow, or Loyal Fellow of Eagles?
“IF Holland wants to trade Russell he will have no problem. What return we can’t possibly know.
The cap hit and payout, one year left, experience, fit for the modern game, etc etc,
This isn’t Tambo or Chia dealing.
The contract was designed for this.
The problem is, he’s not for under $2M, he’s for $4M – cap hit is all I care about.
Yeah I mostly remember a lot of statements like “Holland won’t be able to move him” and “he can just fill his list with teams that can’t/won’t take him and he can block a trade” without much more substantive. To be fair there are/were some here who also thought the Oilers could get assets for Russell in a trade.
I don’t remember this being done recently or convincingly. And recent may matter since the 1 vs 2 years remaining is a factor (compared to last off-season). And his trade list this year is 15 teams vs 10 teams last year. The lower actual salary this season could matter too.
The Russell situation could go a few ways. Worst case scenario for the Oilers is he absolutely doesn’t want to leave and strategically picks the teams closest to the cap for his trade list.
Holland might talk to him to say he sees him as a 7/8 D for next year, meaning he’d spend half the season in the press box. maybe Russell hears that and is more open to a trade. There are a lot of moving pieces. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s still on the team next year or traded. I think he’s still a pretty good player for under 2m.
Hmm….
Is this fact or your opinion?
Winnipeg could very well be interested in him.
I understand that Tanev is a right shot D, however, if he moves on from the Canucks, which is likely, the organization may be looking for a veteran replacement.
Rafferty is an AHL d-man until he proves otherwise – at 25 years old, he best start to prove that now.
I don’t know what you are getting at with your last sentence – I as expressly suggesting Russell for Sutter.
Haha, what’s you list above then? The teams that would take him? Or wouldn’t?
It’s a mix of EC and WC teams so it’s clearly not what you think his “15 team trade list” will be…
If “WC teams” is your answer that’s only 14. Still need to pick 1 more.
I would expect the teams Russell would agree to be traded to are all WC teams.
None of them need or want him.
Russell and Tanev are not in the same conversation.
Tanev is a RHD as are Stetcher and Rafferty.
If the Canucks are interested in a third pairing LHD they might be interested in Russell if they can move another contract like Sutter or Beagle.
Thank you.
Since Russell will submit a 15 team trade list, could you settle on 15? I won’t argue, just want to start with a plausible scenario that fits with reality.
And to be 100% clear, 15 teams Russell will accept being traded to.
Anaheim
Arizona
Boston
Buffalo
Calgary
Columbus
Colorado
Dallas
Florida
Minnesota
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadephia
Nashville
Los Angeles
Vancouver
That’s 17
Ottawa might take him with a sweetener.
This very well may be the case but another toxic contract at a position of need helps the team.
As we’ve discussed, a Rusty for Sutter trade is something that could work for the Oilers – possibly for the nucks as well, in particular if Tanev is moving on which is likely.
Of course, JP understands the premise but, I believe, may be questioning the hypothesis – perhaps after trying to weaponize his list, there may still be some teams interested.
I would love to have someone “show the work” and, nope, I don’t have the inclination to do it myself.
Your point is valid but this work has been done by some members of this community in the last while (I apologize, can’t remember who) and the consensus was, if Rusty wanted to dig in, he could full his can’t block a trade list with teams that either wouldn’t need him at all and/or don’t have the cap space.
The work might be a bit out-dated but I don’t imagine a changed result if the analysis was re-done now.
You never know though – maybe Rusty would be more amenable to moving to a team that would give him more playing time – With only a one-year term it would help him with another contract and, well, its only for one year.
Shall we go through the exercise? I’d pick 15 teams myself but then folks like you would just say “no, he’d never pick those teams”. I don’t know what it will look like, but it would be great to have someone try to pick 15 teams that “neither want him or need him”. Then we can look and see if that’s entirely true or not.
Try and appreciate the aggregate.
No team is even close.
Russell and his agent will pick 15 teams that neither want him or need him.
The only way to move the contract is to take back another toxic contract or add a sweetener that gets another team’s attention.
I agree this won’t be easy for Holland. But the reality is that Russell HAS to submit a list of 15 teams he can be traded to. Every time this is discussed folks say he wouldn’t go there, or there, or there. But he can’t veto going everywhere.
What 15 teams do you figure Russell would put on his list? Once you or someone else guesses at what his 15 team list might look like, maybe we can have a closer look to see if there are plausible fits or not.
Everyone assumes Calgary, Vancouver and Winnipeg because they’re “close” to home. And assumes Nashville because he wears cowboy boots. So say those 4 are his most preferred, he still needs to pick 11 more teams. He likely doesn’t want to go to any of the other places, but he still has to pick the ones that are better than the rest.
I have zero clue what those other teams would be, maybe others have insights (did he fricking love his time in Dallas? does he want to win the cup real badly? does he like the beach? will he just picking teams that make it the hardest to move him??)
Haha. Wut?
The Glory boys viewed players as their high school girlfriends.
Once the crush was on they had lizard brain, once it was off, total despise.
That is a very deceptive statistics feed
Since you posted that link you know for a fact that the Kong’s don’t have the top 4 prospects in hockey and there’s a big gap between “the top 4 prospects and 4 of the better prospects”.
Because in fact as good as their prospect pool is they don’t have any of the top 4 prospects by the same ranking you listed
The top 4 are Zegras Cozens Byram Caufield
The Kings own #7 Kaliyev #15 Turcotte
But look who is in the same bracket as Turcotte, is that the very crappy Bouchard!!!
We all know they have a prospect pool everyone dreams of. There’s no reason to make things up
Well they also need that bounty of forwards
But being a desirable location will help them turn that team around
Wheeler and those guys have severely handicapped the oilers prospects for years. Which I get as for years they couldn’t turn out but they continue to do so. Last year he had Yamamoto bear and Jones as the top but rated bear and Jones as would be the 6-7th best prospect at best on the flames and Yamamoto not top 3. I called him out that he was going to look silly soon and he did
Just like Pronman with his Pettersson and heiskanen rankings
Of course, as usual, you take my post an infer meaning that isn’t there.
I never said the Kings don’t have an elite prospect pool.
I was simply retorting to you statement that a list provided was all “blue-chip prospects” as I don’t agree.
If you don’t think McLeod and Lavoie are blue-chip prospects then there is no reasonable way to cite akil Thomas as one.
Yeah, their D still needs some work but Drysdale should fix that right up.
Kyle Clague is close and, of course they will have a bounty of forwards to trade should that need arise.
I love the Kings prospect pool
But their pro defense after Drew is absolutely godawful
Getting 3 games in as a warm body and being -4 is not proof of superiority
There are maybe a couple that would aren’t handcuffed by the cap and would like Rusty at $1.5M of real dollars but I don’t see Rusty agreeing to go to Ottawa or Florida (where management has been directed to shed cash commitments) or Jersey.
Agree on this 100% – just don’t think dealing Russell for a pick and getting a clean $4M is reasonable – unfortunately.
Many thought that Holland should wait but, from reason, he really wanted to get it done by the deadline.
No way Kass gets that term or AAV this off-season the way things have gone.
I 100% agree with this.
I think there is currently enough money to bring back the current team (give or take Sheahan) – Bear on a 1-year deal, Benning (or Green to replace him at Benning’s money), Ennis as similar cap hit, back-up goalie at Smith’s rate.
If we take the current projected starting lineup in Game 1, Nygard and Haas are extras. So replace Sheahan in the lineup with Haas (also on the PK which he was apparently quite good at in Europe) – leaves Nygard and Benson as the 13/14F.
In order to “improve” – the 3C addition – Holland either needs to be able to get cap space for Russell (and sign a Soderbeg) or flip Russell for a Sutter.
I would wait a year to buy out Neal at this point.
I can’t say how much center he played but he did have a couple seasons with 200 plus faceoffs – of course, he was worse than Nuge on his ELC level bad on faceoffs.
Doesn’t really strike me as a center type player.
Get a grip.
You’re pointing out the bottom of the LAK prospect pool and trying to equate them to the Oilers BEST prospects.
The Kings have better prospects, sometimes in multiple positions, than the Oilers.
For example, Bjornfot is already an NHL player while your darling Bouchard is way down the depth chart.
Never mind that LA is likely to draft Drysdale who by all accounts is NHL ready and projects easily as a top pairing D.
Players like Benson and Lavoie would only get “ also in photo” mentions on LAs list.
Scott Wheeler believes the Kings have the top four prospects in all of hockey and they’re about to draft another one.
Here…educate yourself:
https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/la-kings-prospect-pool-ranked-1-in-nhl-by-the-athletic/c-314918132
It sure does increase the likelihood and, yes, daily testing will be huge.
With that said, I believe a person can have the virus and test negative.
I’m not overly concerned with Nurse and Connor going for bite to eat during camp in Edmonton (although I truly hope they don’t) but those that are in Tampa, Dallas, Vegas, Phoenix, St. Louis, Minnesota, I sure am worried about them going out and about in those jurisdictions near the end of camp.
They very well could contract the virus, test negative and be in the hub for a few days prior to testing positive – I think.
That simply can’t happen and there is a way to ensure that it doesn’t (well, subject to players not adhering to mandated protocols) and, from accounts, its not going to be the case.
Blah!
Eakins ran a PR campaign for himself by kissing up to the Toronto media.
With the same players, in 2014-2015, Eakins ran at bout a 55 point pace, Nelson at a 75 point pace.
Hall was injured for half of Nelson’s tenure. And Petry was gone after the trade deadline…again almost half of Nelson’s tenure.
A bit of a loose use of the phrase “blue-chip”, no?
Kupari is indeed a nice prospect. Of course, he had a much worse rookie season in the AHL at 19 than Jesse Puljujarvi did at 18.
Nice prospect. Definitely not “can’t-miss” which I equate to blue-chip.
Akil Thomas is also a nice prospect but far from “blue chip”.
Unless, of course, the likes of Ryan McLeod and Rafael Lavoie are blue chip prospects????
Hall is going to Calgary. Gaudreau to New Jersey.
Sure so we agree they this doesn’t apply to them this off-season.
If they can deal Russell that would be great. But even if they do, I’d still buy out Neal. Saves you $4m off the cap the next 3 years, costs $2m for the three years after. So savings of $6m and you can replace Neal with a $1m player for the next three years. Just sub Benson in, saves you $ and Benson will be a better player than Neal over the next three years too.
Getting away from the Russell and Neal contract for next year gives the Oilers some flexibility as there will be lots of cheap free agents out there.
I don’t want to move Nurse. I am far from a Nurse-hater. I also acknowledge the cap situation of the Oilers and that they are likely going to have to move on from an important incumbent at some point.
It may not need to be Nurse but it may be as well.
Various factors go in including the drop off between the player moved and the incumbent (i.e. less at Nurse’s position than moving Nuge, most likely).
I would like them to be able to keep all of McDavid, Drai, Yamamoto, Nuge, Bear, Klef, Nurse for the next 5 years but I’m not sure if it will be feasible.
We will know more in 10 months.
1) 100% on board with Jesse signing his QO and coming to camp to compete for a job – preferably after a few months of competition in Liiga, as you mention
2) Would be happy if they could move on from Chiasson and replace him in the lineup with Benson (cap savings of apx $1.3M).
To the extent Benning is moved, I think they do need to have a veteran 3RD added, be it Green for cheap (i.e. less than $2M), or another. I think Bouch is ready but he should have to “win the job” and, well, injuries happen and, when they do, we don’t want him all of a sudden forced in to top 4 minutes if Bear or Larsson go down.
I can’t say if Ottawa has any interest in that deal.
A different type of deal I’ll throw out there – Benning plus for Tierney…….. that plus could be Jesse potentially.
3) Yup, if Rusty can’t be moved for the cap space – bloated contract for bloated contract makes sense – acquire a 3C on a bloated contract in exchange for the 3LD in the bloated contract (3LD that is 4LD on this team). The west coast is a jurisdiction Rusty may waive for (or not have on his block list).
4) I don’t think there is any reasonable way to fit Bear in for term. I think they need to bridge him and could get him below $2M
5) Yes, 2021/22 is going to be tougher to deal with, as I’ve mentioned. Nuge needs to be re-signed (maybe just a moderate raise does it though), Yamamoto will need to be re-signed, potentially Bear again. Larsson comes off the books but they may want to retain him. There is a lot of money to spend that off-season, yes, lots comes off the books but lots will come on. We’ll need to see where we get to with Jones this season (and Sammy, Broberg, Lensstrom, etc.) but dealing Nurse is something that may have to be contemplated. Not now though.
Yep.
Short term gain with long term pain.
But don’t you think the Oilers next 3 years are kind of important? The window is opening now.
Oh absolutely.
If you can deal Russell for a 7th round pick, you do it yesterday.
I’m just not sure I see any team willing to make that trade, given how precious cap space is becoming.
The Oilers had missed the playoffs for seven straight years prior to Eakins.
The Oilers were well on their way to being a “laughing stock” prior to Eakins.
Not to defend Eakins, he was truly awful, however, the hiring was fairly lauded at the time – Eakins being quite well thought of coming out of the AHL.
I think Eakins has learned from his time in Edmonton, as a rookie head coach in the NHL, but I am still quite enthused, as an Oiler fan, that he is behind the bench it Anaheim.
I feel that Todd Nelson is a bit over-rated by Oiler fans but glad Eakins got the job over Nelson.
I was one of Petry’s biggest supporters during his time as an Oiler – simply didn’t understand those that didn’t like him because he wasn’t physical enough (yes, there were quite a few who didn’t think Petry was legit as a top 4 and many cited lack of physical nature).
Of course, MacT forcing himself to deal Petry cause the future GM to acquire Adam Larsson as a RD……
If I’m guessing, dealing Russell is the play here. If you deal him for a pick, then that’s $4 million off the cap. Neal buyout might be needed next year when Nuge, Larsson and Yamamoto need to be signed but that can wait probably.
I agree with this, the only way I see an upgrade at 3C happening is through trade – say Neal for Turris, or Russell for Anisimov.
Well put, thank you.