There are 10 names on the Oilers 50-man list (which currently stands at 42) that were procured by Ken Holland since he arrived over a year ago. I had him at six needs one year ago, and this year’s needs list has been cut in half. Impressive. Here’s what he has, and what he has to do. (Photo by Rob Ferguson)
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Edmonton again? How Oilers would benefit from No. 1 pick and Alexis Lafrenière
- Lowetide: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
50-MAN LIST (42, incl. 9 RFA)
My guess is that Athanasiou, Kuffner, Lagesson, Bear and Benning return, although Benning might get squeezed in order to make cap room. That would put the 50-man at 38 names, I expect we’ll see some targeted roster moves aimed at improving goaltending, No. 3 centre and two-way wingers on skill lines.
HOLLAND’S SHOPPING LIST LAST OFFSEASON (SIX ITEMS)
1 Goalie. If the Oilers are going to make the 2020 playoffs, and that’s a distant bell, a goalie is going to steal some games. I’ve suggested Brian Elliott, perhaps there’s another option. Either way, goalie is the priority. [Mike Smith was Holland’s answer]
2 Two scoring wingers. I do believe Holland will spend (money and assets to bring in some quality scorers. It might be a one and one, as in Brett Connolly via free agency and Connor Brown via trade, but there will be changes. [Alex Chiasson and James Neal were the answers early, Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis late.]
3 RH center. I think we’ll see a PK option who can skate and win faceoffs acquired over the summer. Maybe it’s someone Holland knows, like Luke Glendening. [Gaetan Haas was the bet, he didn’t cover all of the job but was an intriguing addition]
4 Cap room. Most of the heavy work may have to wait a year. [Holland bought out Andrej Sekera and dealt with long-term concerns by dealing Milan Lucic].
5 Top 4 RHD who can move the puck. I can see a scenario where Holland and Tippett look at the internal options and decide a solution is on the roster, but 12 months away. Evan Bouchard might own that job by December 2020. [Ethan Bear arrived during training camp, an inspired player perfect for the moment].
THIS YEAR’S HOLLAND NEEDS LIST
1 Goalie. Holland doesn’t have more room than last year due to the flat cap, but has fewer problems to solve. That’s a good thing. He doesn’t need to buyout a contract, but if a free-agent starter shakes loose (Robin Lehner, Braden Holtby), trading Koskinen may be a priority. One interesting option: Rangers’ Alexander Georgiev. If he comes available, that might be an ideal solution.
2 Two-way winger. Only one is needed this time, I’ve been thinking that Brett Connolly might be available in trade with a new regime taking over in Florida. I’d like to see Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto to start next season, and an Athanasiou-McDavid-Connolly line might just work.
3 No. 3 center. Cooper Marody is a fine skill center in the AHL, and would be a Bear-level find in training camp if he can win a regular job. Is he healthy and at 2018-19 levels? Don’t know. I will be interested in seeing what Ryan McLeod looks like in training camp, because he and Haas might compete for an NHL job (with Jujhar Khaira in the mix). I’ve looked high and low for a righty center option but honestly they’re a rare item. Ryan Strome. Riley Sheahan remains an option.
WHO IS LEAVING?
Evan Bouchard is the most likely farmhand to push his way to the NHL, meaning someone from the right side of the defense is vulnerable. I don’t believe the Oilers have a roster player who can replace Adam Larsson, but his pending free agency makes him a more logical trade piece than Matt Benning (who is RFA).
Several wingers could be leaving town, beginning with unlisted Jesse Puljujarvi (who I wrote about today at The Athletic). Alex Chiasson is probably the most vulnerable name, I think Andreas Athanasiou could be in play but Ken Holland is more likely to sign him short term at a reasonable number. James Neal is somewhat exposed but I think a buyout is more likely than a trade and honestly don’t see him going anywhere.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun show this morning with fabulous guests, we begin at 10 on TSN1260. At 10:20 Scott Wheeler from The Athletic joins us to talk about the 2020 draft and what might be waiting for Edmonton at No. 14 overall. Mike Murphy from Blueshirt Banter will chat about the New York Rangers winning the lottery and what it means to the team’s offseason.
Do you analysis for goaltenders in the top 15? Your forward and goaltender results are biased by the rapid decline of forwards in the 2nd half of the first round of the draft, and the top goaltender prospects typically being selected later in the first round and early in the 2nd round.
You also do not weight your results by the strength of a draft year (which can be used by looking a games played and points by a particular cohort in a draft class).
Goaltenders tend to be picked in the first round, especially in the 2nd half of the first round in bad draft classes.
So I would argue, you are gaming your statistical sample to get the results you want.
Centres prefer to draw the puck to their strong side. It has always been so and the difference is large if your opponent is drawing to his strong side and you are not. Given the new rule on icings to wit the attacking team gets to pick the face off side of the ice this advantage can be huge. This hold especially true for playoff series.
Did Stauff plant trees or eat them?
Wouldn’t Casey De Smith be likely to be just as prominent a 1B than Gerogiev? Only a couple of years older, cost controlled under $2M and likely less expensive on acquisition cost (from a team that needs to move one of their three goalies).
I guess you still don’t care much for my updated look at 1st round goalies.
From the group of goalies drafted in the 1st round from 2002 to 2016, goalies had a bit better chance of being quality players than the forwards drafted before/after them.
And in terms of how long it took to be contributors, the raw average time to contributing of the “successful” players was draft +5.1 for goalies and draft +3.7 for forwards.
Since my goalie benchmark is tied to quality of team I think they have a disadvantage vs forwards. Fleury was a starter in D+3 for instance, but didn’t qualify as “successful” by my criteria until D+5.
If you update the goalie numbers to reflect a couple of guys like Fleury, goalies contribute on average in draft +4.6 vs draft +3.7 for forwards.
Forwards don’t contribute as soon as you think they do. And the gap between when successful forwards contribute and when goalies do is only about 1 year.
I agree with all this.
In an earlier comment you said “A solid 1A goalie improves this team more than any other positional move Ken can make”. I should have quoted that too.
It implied to me Georgiev would be the Oilers best G if acquired. I don’t agree that’s clear but do agree he’d help the team next year and going forward.
Yeah, I don’t like that either, but I’m also concerned that some of my comments may have been misconstrued. I was suggesting trading Klefbom for a forward after the 2020-21 season but before the expansion draft *if* Jones had proven himself to be an equivalent player. The reason for this is that protecting 7-3-1 is by far the most efficient, it doesn’t seem to make sense to me to go 4-4-1 and protect 3 left defensemen when Broberg will be arriving imminently.
Trading Klefbom for a forward also strengthens the forward corps and that player is easily covered under the 7-3-1 format. This only makes sense if Jones proves himself to be as good / better than Klefbom in a top-4 role.
So while I’ve suggested trading Klefbom on this forum over the past few days, I may have neglected to clarify my intended timeline. There is no rage, only a pragmatic look at the expansion draft and the future of the franchise.
+1
I am not sure he is, but I am pretty sure he or Jarry is a better option than Smith. Even if Smith were to play to .920 next year, he is rapidly approaching 40 years old. He is a one season solution at best and a huge problem in the making at worst.
There are no goalies in the pipeline that look to play a big role in the next several years IMO. I want at least two consecutive years of above average performance at the AHL level. Maybe the kid playing in the KHL is closer than I think but I don’t want to bet two more McDavid years on it.
When Vegas saw that Subban was not the answer, they identified backup goalie as being their biggest problem and they spent what it took to solve the problem. That’s what good organizations do. Guess what, backup goalie is the Oil’s biggest problem. Trading Jones is trading from strength to address a long term weakness. Let’s address this problem long term and move on to the next one?
Lol… keep watching. You’ll discover none of them can always do it.
I’m happy to say I’ve never shared a tent with the man.
I did learn something today watching a bunch of hockey; some goalies can actually stop a deflection.
So you were tree planting in BC as well? LOL
Agreed.
I think some of those [posters would argue that it’s the combination of D and Fs that is the problem and thus they’re justified in trading a good D for a good F.
I think some others would argue that in a trading market, if you can see a problem trade it before everyone can see the same problem.
Ideally of course you see a problem and find its fix before everyone else sees the problem, but the finding of the fix tends to identify and highlight the problem you want to trade.
I don’t envy GMs.
Yep. Tippett outsmarted himself. Net net considering even strength goal differential for the McDavid and Draisaitl lines, taking Nugent-Hopkins away from Draisaitl was a massive negative.
Chicago was able to control the series with one line creating and controlling the momentum of the series. It allowed the rest of the Chicago lineup to play “free”. Which is what the Draisaitl line did from January through the shutdown, creating and controling the momentum, which let the rest of the lineup play “free”. The Oilers played stressed in the playoffs instead of playing “free”.
When the Draisaitl line was going out every 3.5 shifts and dominating, when the specials teams were dominating, the rest of the roster could play to its abilities. You finally had a team which was not dependent on McDavid heroics.
Tippett chose to go back to a configuration that depended on McDavid heroics, and McDavid heroics, like Hall heroics, are not enough.
I have no idea how we can improve the defence by trading players like Klef and Nurse. Are we trading them for better dmen? Hmm. Not sure how that works.
Complete garbage. As bad as we all think the Oil are right now, we are better than the Hawks. Let me guess, the writer is from Toronto.
Gord this missing edit fxn is driving me batty.
For a moment there, listening to the radio, I thought I could see Darcy’s hand up the back of Bob’s shirt… Like all two hours. Don’t know what McLeod did to Bob yesterday, but it worked.
Seriously though, I used to live with Stauff and I will say he was never closed-minded, always willing to learn and had that desire to be better. I’m not surprised he has left Spector in the dust when it comes to analysis.
I think the words by Holland are bigger than you are recognizing with your post.
This isn’t just about managing the roster properly, this is also about psychology and face-to-face handling of prospects,
This is a complete about-face from the handling of Drai and Pujo, for eg.
The Hawks will not win one game against Vegas. They are a bad team. The Hawks did not beat the Oilers. The Oilers beat themselves.
Loved Stauffer’s comment; “blaming the best players is the reason Hall was run out of town.” Priceless.
How could Holland possibly know the cap would be flat when he traded for AA? Lack of cap space is the only reason he wouldn’t be signed.
Thanks and that makes some sense. Though I’m still a bit skeptical since his GAA, SV% and record trailed both Shesterkin and Georgiev.
That does explain said posters take on Brogan Rafferty, the veteran of 2 games and 26 minutes of ice time a year and a half ago.
I agree with this and would probably do the deal. But why do you think Georgiev is a clear improvement on Koskinen?
Koskinen had the better GAA, SV%, record, GSAA (from NST) this year…
These all seem like pathetic numbers but it helps to look at other teams. The Oilers 5on5 scoring numbers are not that bad (you seem to be using 5on5 rather than even strength).
All NHL forwards this season:
#1 Austin Matthews 30 5on5 goals
#93 Charlie Coyle 12 goals (borderline between 1st and 2nd line forward)
#186 Alex Kerfoot 8 goals (borderline between 2nd and 3rd line)
#279 Jordan Weal 6 goals (borderline between 3rd and 4th line)
#372 Curtis Lazar 3 goals (borderline between 4th line and PB)
To summarize the above:
1st line 12+ goals
2nd line 8-12 goals
3rd line 6-8 goals
4th line 3-6 goals
Pretty GD underwhelming.
The Oilers forwards:
Draisaitl 22 (5th)
McDavid 21 (8th)
Nuge 15 (tied for 43rd-55th)
Kassian 15 (tied for 43rd-55th)
Yamamoto 7
Archibald 7
Khaira 6
Sheahan 5
Neal 5
Chiasson 5
Haas 4
Gagner 3
Granlund 3
Also, if retained:
Ennis 11
Athanasiou 7
Yes, it’s not hard to see that Koskinen was an average to above average starter this year.
Knowing that the average 3rd liner scored 6-8 5on5 goals this year (you counted 5on5 goals in your earlier post), no it isn’t that hard to squint and see Neal, Sheahan, Khaira, Chiasson and Haas as potentially average 5 on 5 players.
And Athanasiou… You do realize he finished tied for 48th, 96th and 23rd in the NHL in 5on5 goals in the 3 years previous to this one, right? Even though he’s only got 1 in his 13 games with the Oilers?
Do you want to bet against 3 years as a 1st line scorer because he had a tough time finding the net in the post season?
From what I’ve seen most posters on this site are endorsing the Oilers offload better defensemen and insert unproven or inferior options in their place. I’m all for replacing players with better players. I haven’t seen much planning, mostly rage. Which is fine, but it isn’t a plan.
Do we want to try with the exact same D core?
Thanks for the post, and I agree with most of it. It definitely does seem like teams got gun shy taking goalies in the 1st and have shied away in recent years, which created a market inefficiency.
I don’t entirely agree that those picks back in the 2000s were abject failures though. There were lots of failures to be sure, but I think our memory of how well the forward draft picks did is more than a little inflated (maybe because there’s always a decent forward drafted in range that did better, even though there were also failures we don’t remember?).
My look went from 2002-2016. I’ll just list off the goalies picked in 2002 and on as well as the forwards picked immediately before/after to give a taste.
2002
Nash #1
Lehtonen #2
Upshall #6
Nash was clearly the best player but Upshall was never really a top 6 forward. I’d say Lehtonen was average of the 3.
Steen #24
Ward #25
Mike Morris #27
Arguable between Steen and Ward, but Morris never played an NHL game.
Jonas Johansson #28
Toivonen #29
Jim Slater #30
Slater was clearly the best player but was a 4th liner. Johansson wasn’t even a decent WHL/AHL/SHL player.
2003
Fleury #1
E. Staal #2
Horton #3
Not sure how you’d call Fleury vs Staal. Fleury did win 3 cups.. And Horton is clearly the 3rd best player.
2004
Wheeler #5
Montoya #6
Olesz #7
Montoya was clearly a bust and Wheeler was the obvious best player. Olesz topped out at 30 points though, he was probably more a bust than Montoya was.
Stafford #13
Dubnyk #14
Radulov #15
All quality players.
Petteri Nokelainen #16
Marek Schwarz #17
Kyle Chipchura #18
Schwarz was a failure but neither F was a top 9 player.
Rob Schremp #25
Corey Schneider #26
Johannes Salmonsson #31
Schneider was the only NHL regular, and a very good one for a while.
2005
Benoit Pouliot #4
Carey Price #5
Gilbert Brule #6
Price far and away the best player.
Kenndal McArdle #20
Tukka Rask #21
Nicklas Bergfors #23
Rask very clearly the best player.
That’s too much typing already. It seems I’ve stopped before getting to some of the worse goalie failures (Helenius, Irving, Pickard, McCollum) but I think the point stands.
The forwards picked around these goalies are not nearly as impressive as we like to remember (kinda like Benson always being compared to DeBrincat, when DeBrincat is the only forward taken in the 2nd round of 2016 who’s scored more than 7 NHL goals thus far).
What has to change if the young players are a couple of years more experienced and the 5v5 play still suffers?
What is the shot share GF% of the top half of the roster?
Is it the bottom half who don’t play that often?
About the same distance as Jones is from a proven solid top 4D. Make the deal Ken.
leadfarmer,
Stop. Feeding. The. Troll. #slowtrain
Nah.
Provide a link or GTFO.
I put $100 on the Avs a couple of weeks ago.
I also had $100 on the Hawks to beat the Oilers and am now bathing in scotch whisky (and your tears).
Gregor suggests that Khudobin is looking for around $3M X 3.
3 years maybe tough to stomach for a 34 year old but that’s a lower AAV than I would have anticipated.
I don’t imagine Edmonton is his destination of choice.
Rugbypig,
Easily the most incompetent piece of writing that I’ve read today on any topic… altho admittedly that’s partly because I have to get to Spec’s latest.
For this week
Last week it was Dallas
Who knows what next week brings
No one should support Deadspin, it’s a false shell of what they once were.
2017-18 shot share even strength: 50.85 (12)
2018-19 shot share even strength: 47.91 (26)
2019-20 shot share even strength: 48.24 (25)
Oilers will want to get back to those 2017-18 numbers and that’s the task at hand.
Or maybe he’s smart enough to realize that relying on an historically high PP percentage to be a bubble team isn’t a workable long term strategy.
Well they were a playoff team this year and were a much better team prior to the pause. They weren’t considered a Cup contender at any point. The author must be a part time drama teacher.
If I”m not mistaken, the Oilers reduction in goals against this season was almost entirely PK.
Yes, just checked, the Oilers, as a team, went from 2.65 GA/60 last season to 2.72 GA/60 this season.
One would think he wouldn’t get an award between $3M and $4.7M but his 30g season can be used.
But Georgieve is far from a proven “solid 1A”……
After we all thought the decade of darkness was over and the efforts of this years Oilers would pay off with a playoff appearance I read this at Deadspin & thought I’d share it with you.
Sam Fels of Deadspin:
If you’re lucky enough to have never known true despair and yet wish to understand, even only to show empathy, look into the eyes of Connor McDavid. Look deep, and see true hopelessness, the fear that the world will never truly understand what you are through no fault of your own, the knowledge your best years will be spent in a freezer-burned land, that your generational and galactic talent and might will never be more than a furious raging at the dying of the light. That is Connor McDavid… (Edmonton) lost to a team with the slowest defense in the league. They lost to a team with unquestionably the most airheaded coach in the league. They lost to a team whose goalie had four practices before the series due to recovering from COVID-19. This was as much of a hanging curveball as the Oilers could get. Not only did they whiff and spin themselves into the ground, they somehow managed to hit themselves in the gonads on the follow-through… Beyond the trio of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers are simply an aircraft boneyard. At least six forwards who skated against the Hawks are AHL-level players…The defense is in even worse shape… In a world that was just, it wouldn’t be McDavid that engineers a trade out of Edmonton tomorrow, it would be Gary Bettman. This is the best player to come along in a decade or more, and he’s trapped in the unlit attic of the NHL.
Man will the incompetence of this organization never end.
Did it improve though?
28th in shot share two years ago. 28th this season. Even strength is still a black hole.
It would sting, but probably worth it and seems a reasonable price (or similar as part of package)
They seem to have all the key pieces: a skilled goalie that’s going on a bit of a run, a Dman approaching #1 status, an elite shutdown C, experienced scorers, great mix of experience and youth, and a good mix of size and speed.
Poor Korpisalo. All that work…
Philly looks really good.