Yesterday’s item received a lot of feedback, mostly in regard to Andrew Cogliano. Thought being that acquiring Cogs for 97’s line was aiming too low. That’s an interesting thought. Most everyone would prefer a quality two-way winger who can score 40 goals alongside McDavid, but that player is either on the roster (Nuge, Draisaitl, Yamamoto), is in the system (Raphael Lavoie) or is about to be drafted. The men who can impact McDavid’s line with 40 goals next season come at a price that is simply too dear.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- New Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Legendary Oilers PA announcer Mark Lewis discusses his temporary comeback
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s bet on Andreas Athanasiou and how Oilers will proceed
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from the ghosts of Oilers’ draft weekends past
- Lowetide: Oilers’ William Lagesson may benefit from extraordinary circumstances
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
WESTERN CONFERENCE MATCHES
Here is a list of men who can score at a fantastic rate, play substantial minutes against elites (via Puck IQ) and own great scoring rates at five on five. Cogliano is also included for reasons that will become obvious in a minute, Kassian included because he’ll help me make my point.
I have Kassian here because it gives one an idea about how much McDavid can zoom a support player. That’s a wild scoring number for Kassian, and 36 percent of his five on five time came against elites. Zoom!
Now, Cogliano is at just 1.17 points per 60 (scoring numbers are overall, not just versus elites), but how much could he improve with McDavid as his center?
Patrick Maroon went from 0.98 points per 60 in Anaheim 2016-17 to 1.81 and 1.76 in Edmonton with McDavid. The season after he left Edmonton, he fell back to earth (1.08). Things to keep in mind, especially when contemplating the price of acquisition on Ehlers through Silfverberg.
One final thing: If the Oilers are shopping aisle “C” for Cogliano, that means they are looking in some of the right places. Music!
EASTERN CONFERENCE MATCHES
Some great names here, some of them cost just money. Look at Bjorkstrand! He was such a great junior. Anyone there you like more than Cogliano? Are you willing to trade Nuge? Kind of defeats the purpose, right? Fast is a player I’m intrigued by.
NOT ENOUGH YAROSLAV?
I might have to go back under the hood. I normally post my “Here Comes the Sun” list and forget about it, secure in the knowledge that I’m not stealing from Red Line or others. My list is here. The problem is I keep seeing and reading about eligible players (like Yaroslav Likhachyov) who missed making my list but are now doing great things in Europe. I may keep the traditional list and then do an alternative one the week before the draft. We’ll see.
COGLIANO
One quick final note, and then we can move on from Cogliano. I know there’s a need to find a responsible two-way winger for 97 and a need to find a true sniper. I understand that the idea of trading for Cogliano, on the surface, seems to address none of those long-term issues. It’s important to remember Ken Holland’s job has two vital and separate priorities: The team we’ll see on the ice in 2020-21, and the team we’ll see in the years that follow.
So, even though he’s not currently in the conversation for 2020-21, Raphael Lavoie was an important bet on McDavid’s future linemates. Maybe the team drafts Jacob Perreault as another bet for McDavid’s future line in 2020, or trades down and drafts Ridly Greig and Brandon Coe with the two picks acquired. You feel urgency about McDavid’s linemates, so does Holland.
His job is to make this Oilers team an annual Cup contender, and that takes time. He can’t go Chiarelli fast because that’s shortsighted and harmful. He can’t be worried about your impatience because that’s shortsighted and harmful. He can’t even be worried about Connor McDavid’s impatience. Sign Dadanov or trade for Meier, it’s all robbing from one pile to feed another and will result in disappointment. It takes time.
Ken Holland has had one year. There may be a Cogliano or two before glory. Brick by brick, step by step. Cogliano buys time for Lavoie and Perreault or Greig. If Peter Chiarelli adhered to those rules, this Oilers team would be closer to Stanley than the current situation suggests.
Ooops, sorry, that post was meant for today’s thread – i’m an idiot!
Speaking of the 2nd round and Lavoie, as mentioned by Swedish Poster late in yesterday’s thread, his deal with Rogle in the SHL is now official and he’s on his way!
Great experience for the youngster – hopefully he has a great year on and off the ice!
Yeah, I wonder how much of this is a result of the positive aspect of his “puck control” (helping the D) or the negative aspect of his “puck control” (50% likelihood chaos when going out of the net -> on their toes a little more!). In general, I believe the style he plays (lots of movement out of the crease, plays deep in his crease) is not conducive to “aging well”…fingers crossed they can find a suitable and still affordable replacement. Thanks for the convo!
I’ve been sending him emails… No reply so far.
On Dell vs. Smith… The Oilers really did play better in front of Smith this year than Koskinen (recall the goal differential with Smith in net was actually slightly better despite his poor SV%). I do believe he’s doing something beyond stopping pucks to help the team.
And yes, he likely will continue to decline but he’s also going to be available on a 1 year deal. I think I’d prefer Smith at 1 X $2M to Dell at 3 X $2M for instance… Really though, a better option than either should be where we/Holland are looking.
And we heard the same thing about a lot of guys that didn’t make it in the end. Bear having success doesn’t guarantee anything for McLeod.
Faksa made $2.2M this year and is coming off a down scoring season (relative to the previous 3). Holland can find out the re-signing cost before making any move (my guess would be something like 3 X $2.5M).
Keeping McLeod in the system too would be great. I’d love to have both of them (and that would allow McLeod another year in the AHL, then to break into the NHL as 4C, if things go well).
If not though, taking the NHL version of the player (with a very strong history of surviving difficult minutes) makes a lot of sense.
I think we are on the same page! Do you have KH’s cell #?
If it came down to Dell v Smith, I would go with Dell. Smith’s age is a factor and from what I saw last year he lost a step last year and my expectations are he would continue to decline next season as well. Oilers really need to do some work on this and not just fall back to status quo. We know we can’t overwork MK (like Talbot was over worked).
Yeah seeing the Koskinen numbers in this were as important as anything for me.
This year he was 15th of the most used 58 goalies in SV%.
He was 6th if you look at the most used 31 goalies. 6th in the league!
He was a well above goaltender on the season, using objective measures.
He needs someone to play with him for sure but the talk of buying him our or moving him doesn’t make a lot of sense IMO. Lehner stands a good chance of actually being an improvement but the others all have their own question marks.
So who to pair with him… Obviously Khudobin/Greiss/Raanta/Halak would be ideal. And agreed, some more money needs to be thrown at the position for a tangible improvement but these guys wouldn’t break the bank (and $7.5M-$8M is totally reasonable for a goalie budget).
For me DeSmith (assuming cheap to acquire)/Ullmark/Georgiev would be the next tier. All younger and with more track in front. But not at as high a level as the older guys above.
Then Dell and Smith would be in a 3rd tier. I’m not sure there’s even an advantage to Dell over Smith here honestly…
Exactly. We should not be in a rush to MK into the sun and we should not be chasing down Holtby and Fleury (LOVE MAF tho)…Murray could bounce back, but there are better options available I believe with less risk.
Heard the same thing about Ethan Bear not so long ago. McLeod might not be the perfect fit off the top but Faksa comes at a cost now that could be prohibitive with rfa coming up. The best pressure to keep his next contract reasonable would be having McLeod in waiting.
I think Dell and DeSmith could fall in the Plan B category for G acquisition.
Based on what I was thinking and the excellent data you added to the discussion…Plan A should include: Khudobin, Lehner, Greiss, Rantaa (and Halak). Now the Oilers can’t afford Lehner without a major re-tooling. Khudobin is also going to be pricey on his next contract, but Greiss and Raanta (and perhaps Halak) should already be in the conversations KH is having with other teams. There are pros and cons with all of this, but if the Oilers “REALLY” want to make an improvement in the G-spot they have to have a modest increase in budget and plan a 1A/1B tandem – which I think is the way most teams should try to progress in the future to avoid the risk of large overpays to 1AA and injury to said.
The frustrating thing to me is that guys like Khudobin, Halak, Lehner have been available for affordable contracts for years and they have been (by goaltending standards) very consistent for 5 years.
Pretty sure the Vancouver prospect will arrive early. FYI.
Yeah that’s oddly similar, very cool. Obviously a perfect fit. Thanks for pointing it out!
(For anyone who’s curious)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rögle_BK
Vancouvers prospect Hoglander will be his teammate. Same draft year, almost same position (#38 and #40)
and two million dollars extra in the years right before McDavid and Drai are up for new contracts – in the most important years to contend, if we believe that is important to keeping McDavid and Drai for third contracts, there is an extra dead $2M of cap hit.
Not saying it can’t or shouldn’t be done, but just to tread carefully with adding more dead cap space and ensuring there is a real use of that cap that is going to take the team to another level.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
I just know they have an Oilers style logo, so as far as symmetry goes that’s pretty cool.
SwedishPoster,
That’s good info about the salaries. Thanks.
And a very interesting development regarding a possible professional alignment between the clubs. That could really pay dividends down the road.
You’ve mentioned before that Skellefteå (I believe) has the top athletic trainers in the league which is a considerable asset for developing prospects like Broberg and, previously, Berglund. What are the organizational strengths of Rögle and where do they lag the rest of the league?
Haven’t heard anything, SHL clubs don’t have to report wages publically, but I doubt it’s a lot, he’s basically a nobody over here as far as pro hockey goes and SHL clubs rarely pay junior players much at all. The best paid player on Rögle last season got something around 150k, if I were to guess Lavoie might get 50-60k but that’s pure speculation.
Rögle’s GM made an interesting comment that they’d had a good dialogue with the Oilers and that they hoped they could build on that relationship going forward. So this could end up being more than just a one off.
It also sounded like they’re not just looking for a warm body for the lineup but they are also looking forward to developing his game further. If they are looking for a future relationship with the Oil that makes sense I guess.
SwedishPoster,
Other than Auston Matthews going to Switzerland I can’t think of any similar examples either.
Any word on salary? Just curious.
Lavoie to the SHL is now official as per Rögle and he is already en route to Sweden. If there are no delays he’s expected to practice with the team tomorrow. Nice work Holland and good on Lavoie to trying something that is likely somewhat out of his comfort zone to get his first taste of pro hockey.
Will be extremely interesting to follow and I hope the player is prepared to face some adversity early because going from the CHL to the SHL is usually quite a transition for swedish kids returning, it sure won’t be easier for a canadian kid, actually pretty unique step, I can’t think of anyone making the jump who wasn’t from the nordic countries.
That is the point I was trying to make. Yes, we could probably use the $3.8 mln in savings to get a player a bit better than Neal is now. Which would help us….in the short term. But relying on buyouts is no way to run an NHL franchise, especially when we already have one of the highest amount of ‘dead money’ in the league.
Cogliano? I dunno, LT. You’d think he would have zoomed by now if he was zoomable!
Munny,
Adding to Koskinen, I think he’s not just ‘meh’ but a clearly above average NHL goalie (this year at least).
As above he was 15th in SV% among the 58 most used goalies.
If you set that to the most used 31 goalies, Koskinen’s SV% finishes tied for 6th.
He’s more like top quarter than average/top half.
I didn’t mention/include that he was good in 17-18 as well as 18-19.
In 17-18 he played 14 games with a .921 SV%
In 18-19 he played 36 game with a .916 SV%
That’s his NHL career right there (50 21-15-6 4SO 2.66 .917). Small sample but not tiny. And those are quality numbers.
1000+ minutes, all situations, 2019-20 season. That gives 58 goalies. Close enough to two per team for me.
Koskinen .917 tied for 15th
Smith .902 47th
Khudobin .930 1st
Jarry .921 tied for 8th
Raanta .921 tied for 8th (but Kuemper was 3rd at .928)
Lehner .920 tied for 10th
Ullmark .915 tied for 19th
Greiss .913 tied for 25th
Georgiev .910 tied for 29th
Andersen .909 tied for 31st
Dell .907 tied for 34th
Fleury .905 tied for 39th
Murray .899 tied for 50th
Holtby .897 53rd
DeSmith – did not qualify
Most of the top guys remain impressive.
Koskinen looks far better vs league. Fleury/Murray/Holtby remain “please no” options.
He’s signed for 2 years after this one. And he’s 29.
Small sample size is definitely a fair point. He has exactly 50 NHL games on his resume (zero this year). And his AHL SV% this season was only .905.
The NHL sample isn’t *that* small, but there most definitely is risk. My assumption was that he’d be cheap to acquire and be the Smith replacement, clearly behind Koskinen.
If either of those things isn’t true then I agree DeSmith isn’t a good option.
At the same time, I don’t think Dell at ~$2M is a better option than DeSmith at $1.25M.
Thank you for reminding me.
This really is a great rule of thumb.
And it’s absurdly obvious when you recall a player still receives 2/3 of his salary on a buyout (I feel dumb for not fully appreciating this sooner, but the promise of cap space now it rather enticing).
That money is spread out but it doesn’t go away. The $3.8M per for a Neal buyout could get the team a real nice 3C now (or goalie, or LW). That’s nice. But in 4, 5, 6 years (as McDavid and Draisaitl’s deals will be expiring) we’ll be wondering why the fuck Holland bought out James Neal back in 2020. That guy scored 17 goals for the Panthers (or Leafs). He wasn’t *that* bad. And he really wasn’t, not yet at least.
So if the Oilers RD is the B Team of Barrie, Bear, Benning, Bouchard, who do they roll out in the last 5 minutes with a one-goal lead? I guess the hope would be for the puck movers to move pucks.
Regardless of who on this blog is a fan of who, Roussel embarrassed himself that game. Reaves lived rent free and won the mental battle hands down. It was like tkachuk without the talent for levels of distraction. Vancouver with similar issues from 2011. Heres hoping “Canadas team” can fix it up.
jp,
How much does the order change when you only use one season?
Poor Brogan Rafferty.
Hadn’t even played a USHL game when he turned 21.
(McLeod is still just 20 – Bouchard too for that matter).
Old Man Brogan. Wandered all over the world and back three times, yet still but a sniff.
DeSmith’s number are good, but the risk is high too, because the sample is so small and he’s only had the one pretty good team playing in front of him. Probably a lower Quality of Competition too.
The problem is I believe he’s signed for three years. We’d have to give up something nice with no cap hit, I’d think, Again in the ballpark of Samorukov. And accept some risk. Coaches don’t like risk in the net.
Thx
I’m now on the fence when it comes to buying out Neal, but should it not merit serious consideration if we can get a better player for about $4 mill? The total cap hit would end up being the same.
jp,
Kudos for OP for being on the DeSmith train. He definitely seems to be quality and may very well be the best bang for buck available. (Raanta for Russell straight up would be very welcome from where I sit as well though).
It’s interesting to look at the guys who are being thrown around as options to upgrade on Koskinen/Smith.
I’m not sure on the value of breaking out 5v5 SV% from the rest, so I won’t do that. And 2000 minutes gives you 59 goalies over the past 2 seasons (~2 per team). So using those two cutoffs:
Koskinen .911 tied for 25th/59
Smith .900 tied for 50th/59
So Koskinen is about league average (and that holds if you look just at the 31 most used goalies). Smith is pretty damn bad, and rather old. The team did seem to play better in front of him but I don’t know (if Tippett’s not even a believer it’s probably too late).
So how did the league (potentially available options) stack up?
Khudobin .926 tied for 2nd/59
Lehner .925 4th/59
Greiss .921 tied for 5th/59
Jarry .919 9th/59
Raanta .917 13th/59
DeSmith .916 (but just missed 2000 minutes)
Andersen .914 19th/59
Georgiev .912 tied for 23rd/59
Murray .911 tied for 25th/59
Ullmark .910 tied for 29th/59
Fleury .909 tied for 31st/59
Holtby .905 tied for 45th/59
Dell .899 tied for 52nd/59
A lotta nice options there by SV% (also Koskinen is quite decent/average).
There are some team effects there I think. (The guy ahead of Khudobin is Bishop. Also, Rask and Halak, Binnington and Elliot, Greiss and Lehner, Kuemper and Raanta are all in the top 20 by SV%. That’s half of the top 20 right there.)
Anyway, it seems like Fleury (and Murray, and Dell) (and maybe also Ullmark, Georgiev and Andersen??) shouldn’t be part of the “upgrade” conversation…
Major question mark whether Fleury or Murray would be an upgrade on Koskinen.
Likewise whether Dell is an upgrade on Smith.
Khudobin, Lehner, Greiss, Rantaa and DeSmith all seem like quality options who (Lehner aside) wouldn’t break the bank.
Lol. You love moving those chains. In Tye Felhaber’s first draft eligible season, he scored 18-20-38 in 64 gqmes. In McLeod’s draft year, he posted 68, 26-44-70.
They are not on similar career paths.
Yep.
And then Hebig scored 29 points in the AHL.
Ryan McLeod scored 23.
Funny how all these distant bells wander all over the place.
Did someone just cite points in an over-age season in junior as some sort of evidence of NHL pedigree?
Cameron Hebig had 90 points in the WHL in an overage season.
Good grief.
Felhaber scored 59 goals and 109 points in his last year of junior.
McLeod scored 12 goals and 38 points.
Which one can’t score enough?
I believe the shortened season and the agreements surrounding cap calculations are going to save the Oilers from a bonus overage cap penalty next season (thank goodness).
If I’m not mistaken (and I know there were some conflicting reports on this at the beginning), for final cap calculation purposes, players that were eligible to go to the minors without waivers were deemed to be not on the roster for the rest of the season – the likes of Nygard, Haas, etc. and their cap hits were not included in the daily calculation for the rest of the year when extrapolating and calculating the final season cap numbers. Saved a bunch of cap and the bonuses won’t put them over.
Thx!
$2M base plus $125 X 4 (20, 25, 30 and 35 games), so $2.5M.
There is the possibility for another $250 which he gets a 40 games played. He had 39 appearances and I gather the league might pro-rate. With that said, not all 39 count I don’t think (there will be a few under 30 minutes) – that’s important because, if they do pro rate and all 39 counted, I think he might get the additional $250K for 45 games…..
McAvoy having some KRusty luck tonight….
I though he was on an expiring contract – that does change things.
Say hello to Mikko Koskinen.
My estimate is 2.5M = 2 + 0.125*4bonuses
That is 100% fair.
If the acquisition price if a prospect, center prospects is not where the Oilers should be paying from – they don’t have the depth. Now, Samorukov on the other hand (and I love me some Sammy)……
What was Smith’s paid salary for last year (including bonuses, of which I know he hit a few)?
Availability matters for the backup goaltender too.
There is no evidence that Raanta provides a reasonable expectation of availability to go along with his decent numbers.
No offense but your dream sounds like a nightmare.
I’ve always thought Fleury was overrated. He hasn’t been good in the past two years either.
He was 40th in the league at 5v5 SV% (1000 min played).
$7m cap. 35.