The Name Game

by Lowetide

I’ve been thinking about this for some time, and have talked about it previously. Let’s play a game. Edmonton walks RFA’s Andreas Athanasiou and Matt Benning, allowing Ken Holland to spend an additional $5 million on free agents. And what if he spent it on RFA’s from other teams who have also been set free?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

RFA’S ON THE LOOSE?

What if most of the RFA’s are walked? I’m not talking about Ethan Bear, but rather about men who are arbitration eligible? Or those who have value but may not be worth the price? Could the Oilers use some of that $5 million on some value adds?

LW Drake Caggiula, Chicago Blackhawks. He made $1.5 million last year and is arbitration eligible. His five on five per 60 total is 1.79 and he’s a speed merchant. The ‘Hawks have $8 million in cap room and have to sign Dominik Kubalik, Corey Crawford and Dylan Strome, among others. Per 82 NHL games, he has scored 15 goals. If Holland could grab him for $1.1 million?

LW Andreas Athanasiou, Edmonton Oilers. He made $3 million last year and delivered just 1.26 five on five points per 60 after seasons of 1.95, 1.81 and 1.97. He could be a fine addition as the No. 3 left wing who jumps up the depth chart when the need arises. Could Holland sign him to $2.2 million?

RW Jake Virtanen, Vancouver Canucks. He earned $1.25 million last season and scored 18 goals. Canucks management expressed that they expected more from him in the postseason, perhaps there’s an opportunity. He posted 1.93 points per 60 at five on five, while his most common linemates were Adam Gaudette and Antoine Roussel. A weird situation but perhaps an opportunity to take advantage.

A long way to go, but it’s at least worth considering the idea: Broberg might be playing his final season in the SHL. Then it comes down to where he’ll play 2020-21. Two things: Remember who drafted Broberg (Holland) and keep in mind what Tyler Wright told Tony Brar: “We want to play with speed, we want to play with intensity and competitiveness. You have to be able to defend in this league. You look at last night, Dallas wins one nothing.” 

We don’t get much on the late-round Euros unless they play in Sweden or Finland. Mazura is an interesting player, older than you’d think but he has skill.

OILERS DRAFT LIST

I do this internally, but there are public reports this year pertaining to Edmonton’s interest in specific players. Here’s an attempt at the Oilers top 15 entering the draft.

  1. L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL.
  2. LC Quinton Byfield, OHL.
  3. LC Tim Stutzle, DEL.
  4. LD Jake Sanderson, USHL.
  5. LC Cole Perfetti, OHL.
  6. RW Alexander Holtz, SHL.
  7. LW Lucas Raymond, SHL.
  8. RW Jack Quinn OHL.
  9. LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10. 
  10. G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. 
  11. RC Jacob Perreault, OHL.
  12. LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL.
  13. RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL.
  14. RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL.
  15. LC Marco Rossi, OHL.

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OriginalPouzar

EDIT: Oh, and no need to apologize and good morning.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: That makes sense my apologies and I think Benson and JP might make good wingers for Connor. One a good passer and the other an excellent net front presence and both defensively aware for their experience level.

I don’t disagree.

With Benson, we don’t know if his game will translate yet but he has the skill-set to play with McDavid, in my opinion.

As we’ve seen with the likes of Maroon, straight speed isn’t a requirement to have success with Connor. For me its more about getting there “at the right time” than getting there “fast”.

Maroon had a knack for getting to the scoring areas on front at the right time and scores alot of goals.

I think the ability to time your entry, to be smart enough to know how to position yourself to create space for McDavid and then have the skill to get him the puck with space, sometimes passing out of crowded spaces, etc. – those are keys to playing well with McDavid.

These are skills that Benson has – he is also no shrinking violent on the boards and has exception give a shit a work ethic.

Who knows where his skating will let him develop too and playing with McDavid means playing tough minutes against top comp but I don’t see any reason why Benson shouldn’t have the opportunity to win a spot with McDavid just like the likes of Nygard, AA, Neal, Ennis, etc.

pts2pndr

RonnieB:
pts2pndr,

If JP is playing with Connor Kassian will be 3RW.

Correct and JP is more defensively sound. Kassian playing on a third line with Neal and Khaira for a heavy line.

pts2pndr

jp: Yeah that’s possible. OPs comment you originally replied to was specifically referencing a suggested AA-Nuge-Benson/JP line. OP said it should be JP since Benson/AA are both LW. I was just trying to clarify the conversation.

Thanks,!

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I know that which is why i said Puljujarvi instead of Benson as, like AA, Benson is a LW.

That makes sense my apologies and I think Benson and JP might make good wingers for Connor. One a good passer and the other an excellent net front presence and both defensively aware for their experience level.

jp

Woodguy v2.0: *****SPAM*****
New Because Oilers:
Edmonton Oilers 3rd line center search #4 – Derek Ryan
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-serach.html
*****END SPAM*****

Thanks again for these.

IMO Ryan is a really nice option. If he can be had in exchange for Russell and his salary… well that’s a near ideal situation.

OriginalPouzar

This team has Stanley Cup contending forward depth when the like of Kassian can be properly slotted in to 3RW – here is hoping a more suitable 1RW present himself soon.

RonnieB

pts2pndr,

pts2pndr: Both Benson and AA are left wingers so if JP stays and plays with Connor one of AA or Benson will play left wing assuming they put the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto line back together.

If JP is playing with Connor Kassian will be 3RW.

jp

pts2pndr:
Both Benson and AA are left wingers so if JP stays and plays with Connor one of AA or Benson will play left wing assuming they put the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto line back together.

Yeah that’s possible. OPs comment you originally replied to was specifically referencing a suggested AA-Nuge-Benson/JP line. OP said it should be JP since Benson/AA are both LW. I was just trying to clarify the conversation.

jp

Harpers Hair: The key players to watch are the RFAs with arbitration rights.

If the teams believe the arbiter will award the player more than they are will to pay and can’t walk away from the award, they won’t issue a qualifying offer and will just walk away.

Vancouver is a prime example.

Last season they walked away from Ben Hutton for the same reason.

This season, Jake Virtanen and Troy Stetcher both have arbitration rights and it’s likely they walk away from both (or trade them beforehand) and replace them with Zack MacEwan and Brogan Rafferty who are both on ELCs.

They need the cap space to sign Markstrom, Toffoli and Tanev.

I think you will see several teams adopt a similar strategy.

Yeah no question teams will walk some of those guys.

The off-season and free agency are approaching fast. We’ll have a lot better idea before long.

pts2pndr

jp: AA is a LW, is the issue. So Puljujarvi would be a more likely linemate than Benson.

Both Benson and AA are left wingers so if JP stays and plays with Connor one of AA or Benson will play left wing assuming they put the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto line back together.

OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy: Really?

For you it’s easier to believe they weren’t interested than they were told to not take penalties after how the calls were going?

Not for me fellow lowetidian.

Oh, of course they were told to not take penalties but that is not the same as essentially playing with zero aggression, which is what Kassian did.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s not funny how many players were injured this game playing goalie blocking shots.

By that I mean turning skates in front of shots and turning to the side. I remember this is how Larsson broke his leg.

It’s a natural fear response. But it hurts more to take a shot off the protected areas than on them. It’s a training thing. I feel old school coaches don’t get it.

They weren’t blocking and the same velocity of shots these guys are. Bcs of the sticks now and the size and strength of current players.

It’s a real thing. How many games did the Oilers best D this year lose to injury that impacted the playoff performance?

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Jesse is right shot RW.

I know that which is why i said Puljujarvi instead of Benson as, like AA, Benson is a LW.

Harpers Hair

jp: Yeah the key question is how big that number (of teams spending less) will be.

What teams have we gotten some kind of confirmation from that they’re spending or cutting?

Arizona is reported to be one cutting salary (though they’re also basically at the cap now and have only 17 players signed – they need to cut just to field a team)
Florida is cutting.
Anyone else? I don’t recall clear signals other than those.

And teams that are spending.
We know the Oilers are.
St. Louis presumable is clearing for Pietrangelo.
Montreal is adding players.
Pittsburgh is adding.
Not sure if others have indicated they’ll be cap teams like Holland did.

It’ll be interesting how it all plays out (and GMs will need to make decisions to qualify FAs without having all the information on this stuff).

The key players to watch are the RFAs with arbitration rights.

If the teams believe the arbiter will award the player more than they are will to pay and can’t walk away from the award, they won’t issue a qualifying offer and will just walk away.

Vancouver is a prime example.

Last season they walked away from Ben Hutton for the same reason.

This season, Jake Virtanen and Troy Stetcher both have arbitration rights and it’s likely they walk away from both (or trade them beforehand) and replace them with Zack MacEwan and Brogan Rafferty who are both on ELCs.

They need the cap space to sign Markstrom, Toffoli and Tanev.

I think you will see several teams adopt a similar strategy.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: I can’t for a second believe that hard-nosed Tippett told two of his big/fast/aggressive players to, well, not play that way. The players thought they could coast to the next round against an “inferior team” without doing the little things that are needed come post-season time.

Really?

For you it’s easier to believe they weren’t interested than they were told to not take penalties after how the calls were going?

Not for me fellow lowetidian.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: Mcdavid and Leon did their jobs in the playoffs and so far Maroon is just what Tampa needed all along. Kass,Nurse and company get a big fat F did we even have one good bodycheck against Chi-Town. If Kass and Nurse want the big bucks they better start sacrificing their bodies a little more are trade themwhile we can.

They already got the big bucks.

Kassian is locked in to a 4-year pre-Covid overpay for his early 30s.

Nurse is over $5M for the next couple – he could earn a material raise on his next deal in two years but, either way, I don’t see Nurse doing anything but putting in full effort regardless of contract status.

OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy: That both of them sat back says to me coaching.

Tipp got a first hand look at what it’s like to be an Oiler. Egregious reffing so he stayed the warriors.

The calls sort of even out, it’s just the other teams get free license and the oilers get called on what usually is called ‘playoff hockey’.

I can’t for a second believe that hard-nosed Tippett told two of his big/fast/aggressive players to, well, not play that way. The players thought they could coast to the next round against an “inferior team” without doing the little things that are needed come post-season time.

leadfarmer

Ryan: Ha.

Yeah, I’m not certain, but Benson has a little of the Draisatl-lite in him with the big paddle, the vision, and the ability to make those backhand passes. He might be able to do that from the RW. Draisatl sure looked good on the RW when he played there.

Woodguy didn’t like Haula much in his post.

I always think of him as one of those Borg-type players from the Wild,… big, strong skater, defensibly reliable, but that’s just the eye test.

Haula was coming back from knee surgery and big injuries take more than one season to get back to 100%

jp

GordieHoweHatTrick: Thanks for putting some ball-park numbers into the speculation to make the thinking and discussion more tangible. I speculate that the final change in numbers will probably be closer to the larger decrease estimates you make, but who knows. I agree that the less desirable FAs (“Caggiulas”) are going to get hit in the pocketbook a lot harder than those with clear up-side (“Bears”). Its the “middlers” that are hard to suss out what is likely to happen, at least in my mind.

Yeah the key question is how big that number (of teams spending less) will be.

What teams have we gotten some kind of confirmation from that they’re spending or cutting?

Arizona is reported to be one cutting salary (though they’re also basically at the cap now and have only 17 players signed – they need to cut just to field a team)
Florida is cutting.
Anyone else? I don’t recall clear signals other than those.

And teams that are spending.
We know the Oilers are.
St. Louis presumable is clearing for Pietrangelo.
Montreal is adding players.
Pittsburgh is adding.
Not sure if others have indicated they’ll be cap teams like Holland did.

It’ll be interesting how it all plays out (and GMs will need to make decisions to qualify FAs without having all the information on this stuff).

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: So, he needs to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Benson (well, Puljujarvi given Benson is also a LW)?

So, Holland needs to key in on Haula for that center and keep Nuge in the top 6.

Ha.

Yeah, I’m not certain, but Benson has a little of the Draisatl-lite in him with the big paddle, the vision, and the ability to make those backhand passes. He might be able to do that from the RW. Draisatl sure looked good on the RW when he played there.

Woodguy didn’t like Haula much in his post.

I always think of him as one of those Borg-type players from the Wild,… big, strong skater, defensibly reliable, but that’s just the eye test.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: First, it depends what arrangement you have made with Nugent-Hopkins.

The first step of the summer is actually coming to an understanding with him about how the next year plays out, so I know whether I have a NMC for the expansion draft to hand out or not.

But I would go to Granlund with a one year offer, with the maximum signing bonus allowed, and argue that one year with McDavid or Draisaitl will improve his situation next year.One year, because it means he controls his destination next year and cannot be forced to go to Seattle.

(I would probably have a different strategy if I have an understanding with Nugent-Hopkins that doesn’t require me protecting him next year.)

For that one year, I would try to get Granlund between $3 to $4 million dollars.No one else can offer a spot on McDavid or Draisaitl’s line.

The offers are not going to be that high around the league anyways as it should be a buyers market.

And he can set himself up next year to get back to $6 million per season.

The Oilers should be able to get a good LW on a one year deal for between $3-4 million.Somebody will see the opportunity and bet on themselves.

Agghhh, i see where our disconnect is:

-you think that Granlund will sign at a discount to market value on a short term to play in Edmonton. I anticipate he’ll get $4M plus with term.

– I’ve yet to see any evidence that McDavid pulls free agents to Edmotnon.

– I don’t believe Holland will ask Nugent-Hopkins to hold off on signing and will be looking to lock him up well ahead next off-season.

€√¥£€^$

OriginalPouzar: I was racking my brain trying to figure out how you were talking about – was even thinking about players named Jim that had been in contract disputes.

I”m not sure he comes in as cheap as you think – a haircut on his current AAV but under 7 figures?

Its always boggled my mind how he got the max ELC contract with full performance bonuses – not that he vested but still.

Sorry about that I had a very short window to post and didn’t re-read before I hit send.

I thought he scored better than he actually did, but hasn’t reached 20 goals yet. But he is clearly not a top 6. My hope is this year there will be a lot of value contracts, so guys normally expecting between $3.5 to $2 Million will be closer to $1 Million, this is where I expect Veasey to come in at.

As others have mentioned, there will a market adjustment and perhaps the often-touted McDavid factor (which only seemed to snag Lucic, lol) with bring quality players to E-Town on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal to boost a playe’sr value might finally come into being.

For example, when it comes to UFA acquisitions, I envision an extremely effective 4th line of Nieto, Johann Larsson and Meller Karlsson might cost about $3.0 Million or less. Pre-Covid it would be 25-40% more. That would be incredible value and things will be very interesting in October.

jp

pts2pndr: Jesse is right shot RW.

AA is a LW, is the issue. So Puljujarvi would be a more likely linemate than Benson.

jp

Woogie63:
jp,

Good post.

The cap is not going down.So theoretically if you had $3M for AA last year you have $3M this year.
Clearly there are contracts starting in 20/21 that anticipated a higher cap- but there are bad contracts expiring as well.

I am not sure on all the lower “internal cap” rumors.$81M for this group of owners is a tiny fraction of their wealth.Save Arizona and a few teams that are full blown re-build, my bets is 25/31 teams get to within $3-4M of the cap.

Thanks, and I agree that reduced spending by teams may not be as much as many are expecting. At the same time I’m pretty sure there will be contraction. 25 of 31 teams were within $4M of the cap this year, I expect there’ll be a few less next season at least.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: So, he needs to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Benson (well, Puljujarvi given Benson is also a LW)?

So, Holland needs to key in on Haula for that center and keep Nuge in the top 6.

Jesse is right shot RW.

Glovjuice

leeinvan:
They threw away a pick for Green and got shafted by the league for the Neal trade and so I can’t see the GM essentially giving away two 2nd round picks as well.
The trade deadline wasterrible GMing, (new word) Hopefully the GM can look at players that don’t play for Detroit, because that ship has sailed.
Perhaps they can package AA and J.P together for a 3rd line Centre. It’s important the GM gets something for AA or its like Peter C all over again.
I still believe Nurse has to go, the core of this D is not good enough and Nurse is a lefty, Larsson is signed for another year and he is a righty. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa are looking for players not picks or prospects.
New Jersey has 3 first round picks and I bet they would love Larsson back, if that happened, it would be a risk for the Oiler’s and they would have to get a good return for that trade. So does Ottawa, would Ottawa give up their 5th overall for Nurse and J.P

This is good stuff. Agreed, Holland hasn’t been great so far. Not bad, but I certainly better better. More agility so to speak. Post more please. The Lucic deal doesn’t absolve the other average to bad work.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan:
Ryan,

If it weren’t a contract year for 93, and we didn’t have so many holes in the top six…

AA – 93 – JP/ Benson

Would be a fun line to watch.

I don’t imagine 93 would be very appreciative of being put on babysitting duty in a contract year, but that aside.

Ha, I just responded to your previous post suggesting that line based off your analysis.

Re-signing Nuge is a priority but i am less concerned than others about his placement in the lineup in that regard. More than anything, I think Nuge wants to win and, as he’s mentioned, consistent linemates.

Would he prefer to play with Drai and Yama over AA and Benson? Probably but I think he’ll be happy if the team is winning – he’ll still play PP1 with Connor and Leon and, frankly, that third line is alot more skilled than the linemates he’s played with for material portions of his Oiler career.

leadfarmer

Holland is loyal to his players
So you think he’s done with AA after a handful of games
Doubtful

Scungilli Slushy

AA has issues, but why did Holland who knows him trade 2 seconds for him in an up year for the team?

Dutch feels there is something there. I bet he’s back.

So now he’s gone he he he.

jp

OriginalPouzar:

With respect to Benning and AA, not qualifying Benning woudl be silly – he is worth his QO (and not a risk for a materially higher arb award) and has value in a trade at that amount.

AA is tougher but, in my opinion, it’ll be very hard to find higher value for $3M, even in the new financial landscape. On bad year at 26 does not do away with four straight years above 1.8 P/60 with, mainly, middle six linemates. Could the Oilers ever use that in the middle six.

I agree this is likely the case. At the same time, if enough teams are cutting cap then LTs scenario where lots RFAs aren’t qualified could come to fruition.

I guess if Holland sees there’s zero trade market for Benning and/or AA that’s a pretty good indicator of how the market values these players. If he’s been trying to find buyers and can’t then I won’t fault him for walking them (though again, I don’t expect that to happen).

OriginalPouzar

Ryan:
jp,

If you had the luxury of a $3m soft minutes 3rd line winger in your cap structure, a brilliant 3rd line 2-way Centre, and a rookie forward with top six potential that you could also package together on a soft minutes line, you’re might be cooking with gas.

So, he needs to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Benson (well, Puljujarvi given Benson is also a LW)?

So, Holland needs to key in on Haula for that center and keep Nuge in the top 6.

Scungilli Slushy

Scungilli Slushy:
Watching the game one thing that always stands out to me is ‘sticks’.

Good teams are consistently good at disrupting plays with their sticks, and alsosealing the offensive boards.

I don’t see the Oilers as good at this. The question is why?

Too slow to be in position, coaching (but it remains an issue throughout changes), lack of skill?

I also hope their is a change in attitude about obstructing shots. If you are not in the lane let the goalie handle it and worry about your check.

If you are in the lane the pads are mostly on your front, don’t twist. Take it straight up. So many injuries from side of leg foot ribs etc.

Sticks in lanes you aren’t in are bales out so you don’t get it in the chops or deflect it in your own net.

As Lehner chastised his D. Blocking shots is good, blocking poorly is a problem.

Blades out not bales. Deflection to the corner. What players good at it do. Should be taught.

Scungilli Slushy

Watching the game one thing that always stands out to me is ‘sticks’.

Good teams are consistently good at disrupting plays with their sticks, and also sealing the offensive boards.

I don’t see the Oilers as good at this. The question is why?

Too slow to be in position, coaching (but it remains an issue throughout changes), lack of skill?

I also hope their is a change in attitude about obstructing shots. If you are not in the lane let the goalie handle it and worry about your check.

If you are in the lane the pads are mostly on your front, don’t twist. Take it straight up. So many injuries from side of leg foot ribs etc.

Sticks in lanes you aren’t in are bales out so you don’t get it in the chops or deflect it in your own net.

As Lehner chastised his D. Blocking shots is good, blocking poorly is a problem.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Quite likely they already have a deal in place but waiting for the playoffs to end.

I imagine Bettman has told teams to hold off on announcing new deals to keep the news cycle going as long as possible.

Nope – Bergevin on record stating no talks before the trade.

OriginalPouzar

€√¥£€^$: Vessey

I was racking my brain trying to figure out how you were talking about – was even thinking about players named Jim that had been in contract disputes.

I”m not sure he comes in as cheap as you think – a haircut on his current AAV but under 7 figures?

Its always boggled my mind how he got the max ELC contract with full performance bonuses – not that he vested but still.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: So are draft picks Holland got hosed three times once with COVID flat cap again with the bullshit 3rd rounder going to the phlegms and finally the seeding order for the playoffs. I figured Holland would hold off on a Jesse trade until he got what he wanted but now I think wemight bedisappointed in the return if it happens in the next few months.

The Jesse return in the next few months that has the potential to work out the best for Oiler fans is his return to Oilers camp ready to play some NHL hockey!

raventalon40

Rugbypig:
GordieHoweHatTrick,

If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
We all have pride in our abilities.

Stop treating the players as fools.

Michael Stone says hello

dustrock

I wasn’t joking when I said Athanasiou would be in Europe after the next 2 seasons.

Other than the one playoff game where he was extremely noticeable he was a total non-factor.

New nickname can be Invisibister. Flatters to deceive.

Scungilli Slushy

The only thing that intrigues me about AA is that other than I should probably go, he can actually shoot the puck, which is a rarity for Oiler forwards.

Bar down is the deal in the giant goalie butterfly world, which is a huge contributor to the Oilers 5v5 scoring woes IMO.

Too many muffins and right in the belly trying to go 5 hole and low blocker. Or a mile wide trying for top cheddar.

Scungilli Slushy

Reja: Mcdavid and Leon did their jobs in the playoffs and so far Maroon is just what Tampa needed all along. Kass,Nurse and company get a big fat F did we even have one good bodycheck against Chi-Town. If Kass and Nurse want the big bucks they better start sacrificing their bodies a little more are trade themwhile we can.

That both of them sat back says to me coaching.

Tipp got a first hand look at what it’s like to be an Oiler. Egregious reffing so he stayed the warriors.

The calls sort of even out, it’s just the other teams get free license and the oilers get called on what usually is called ‘playoff hockey’.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Connor Connor Bo-Bonnor
Bo-na-na fana fo-fonnor,
fee-fi- Mo-monnor….
Connor!

Ahhh, sweet procrastination.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Honest question, where do you propose to find the $5M (not only for this coming season but they next few – the cap isn’t going up for 2021/22 and may not for 2022/23 and there is Yamamoto, Bear, Nuge, etc. to re-up).

First, it depends what arrangement you have made with Nugent-Hopkins.

The first step of the summer is actually coming to an understanding with him about how the next year plays out, so I know whether I have a NMC for the expansion draft to hand out or not.

But I would go to Granlund with a one year offer, with the maximum signing bonus allowed, and argue that one year with McDavid or Draisaitl will improve his situation next year. One year, because it means he controls his destination next year and cannot be forced to go to Seattle.

(I would probably have a different strategy if I have an understanding with Nugent-Hopkins that doesn’t require me protecting him next year.)

For that one year, I would try to get Granlund between $3 to $4 million dollars. No one else can offer a spot on McDavid or Draisaitl’s line.

The offers are not going to be that high around the league anyways as it should be a buyers market.

And he can set himself up next year to get back to $6 million per season.

The Oilers should be able to get a good LW on a one year deal for between $3-4 million. Somebody will see the opportunity and bet on themselves.

OriginalPouzar

Eh Team:
With lots of teams close to the cap and a bunch more with lower internal caps, I think we will see a flood of players on the market.Lots of RFA’s will get walked and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bunch of buy-outs too for those owners who can afford it.

Players who made $3m last year will be getting half of that.And there’s going to be very little market to do salary dumps.Bjudstad was basically given away with 50% retention.

I could see AA, Benning set free and Neal bought out to free up cap space that could be better utilized.Then maybe you bring back AA (or someone similar) at $1.75-2m instead of him going to arb

It’s pretty unlikely next year will be a full year and certainly games will be played with either no attendance or very limited attendance.Players will get prorated salaries based on a short season.At any rate players will only get 50% of revenue at the end of the day.
.

I think you are generally right on RFAs with arb rights generally – a number have managers have expressed that RFAs will get squeezed and suggested more non-qualifications that we are used to.

With respect to the Oilers, don’t expect a Neal buyout – Ken Holland said the words “highly unlikely” this month when asked about buyouts.

With respect to Benning and AA, not qualifying Benning woudl be silly – he is worth his QO (and not a risk for a materially higher arb award) and has value in a trade at that amount.

AA is tougher but, in my opinion, it’ll be very hard to find higher value for $3M, even in the new financial landscape. On bad year at 26 does not do away with four straight years above 1.8 P/60 with, mainly, middle six linemates. Could the Oilers ever use that in the middle six.

Victoria Oil

Eh Team: It’s beyond stupid to give up a draft pick to negotiate with Edmundson.He’s a 3rd pairing D who is overpaid at $3m right now

Kind of like giving up a draft pick to overpay Nikita Nikitin and then have him spend most of his time in the minors?

jp

Ryan,

First I’ll say that my post was intended as far more about the general FA climate this off season than AA. Was just riffing off LT mentioning him today and what I’ve said previously.

On AA, you’ve given lots of good observations and thoughts on his game that I agree with for the most part.

For me the appeal of AA is that he scores even strength goals. He has a rap as a bad defensive and poor possession player. But he’s actually been even rel to team (give or take) for GF% prior to this year.

You mention needing to be sheltered but he hasn’t been generally (~33% TOI vs elites the 2 years prior to this one, this season too I think if you include time with the Oilers).

So he creates goals, and he roughly breaks even on GF/GA. To me he’s 2nd line winger, which is generally worth $3M.

Stuff went off the rails this year. He stopped scoring like he has and was crushed on GF/GA. He also was on a truly terrible team AND had a PDO of .916 with Det. Anyway, I think he’s likely to be good value for $3M going forward, as he has been for most of his career (IMO). Whether it’s with the Oilers or not, we’ll see.

Material Elvis

Rugbypig:
GordieHoweHatTrick,

If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
We all have pride in our abilities.

Stop treating the players as fools.

It happened to Justin Schultz when the Oilers traded him to Pittsburgh. They didn’t qualify him at $4M or something ridiculous, and he signed a one year value contract with them immediately thereafter. So there is precedent.

Woodguy v2.0

Eh Team: It’s beyond stupid to give up a draft pick to negotiate with Edmundson.He’s a 3rd pairing D who is overpaid at $3m right now

This may be true.

pts2pndr

jp:
I’ve said previously I don’t think the Oilers should walk AA, and that he’d probably get $3M on the FA market even if they did. I’ve also felt that teams widely deciding not to qualify their RFAs seemed unlikely.

I have to be honest though that I’ve never really gotten my head around how much less money there’s likely to be in this years FA pool. So here is an attempt.

Flat cap means the pool of money for players won’t increase. But the players were paid to play in the league this season, for the most part them returning for the same salary would take care of things (some players have increasing salaries in existing contracts but I don’t think that’s a large factor).

The real issue is that some teams will be cutting cap, though we don’t know how many and by how much. We also know some teams (like the Oilers) will not be cutting cap. Also, teams that cut cap are limited by the cap floor in how much they can cut, so even a team at the cap can’t cut more than $22M.

What are reasonable guesses at how many teams cut from their cap this season? And by how much? On average 15 teams cut by $10M? 10 teams? 5? (those would result in salary expenditure decreases of $150M, $100M or $50M year over year).

How do those numbers look vs total expenditures? From CapFriendly total salary expenditure (on NHL rosters) was just shy of $2.5 billion last year (average of $80.4M per team, which included teams that went over the cap due to LTIR).

15, 10 or 5 teams cutting $10M in cap equals reductions of 6%, 4% or 2% in total salary expenditure. That’s not so so huge, but that reduction is being placed on the subset of players who are free agents this year.

Turns out about 1/3 of player contracts turn over each year. So the total expenditure reductions of 6, 4 or 2% (from 15, 10 or 5 teams cutting cap) would be carried by only 1/3 of the players. Meaning on average FA salaries would be reduced by 18%, 12% or 6% in the above scenarios.

Maybe we’ll round it off and say there should be a 5-20% reduction in FA salaries this off season? Sound fair?

Maybe it’s not. I’m definitely interested in input if folks disagree or I’m missing something major.

Back to the actual players, using the examples LT gave above of Caggiula and Athanasiou. Their salaries were both cut by 27% ($1.5M to 1.1M and $3M to 2.2M).

Maybe that’s more than we should expect? Though I think for sure the lower end guys like Caggiula will get squeezed the most. And RFAs like Ethan Bear are getting some kind of raises too, so they’ll eat away a bit at the pain the Caggiula’s are going to feel.

Interesting times however it ends up playing out.

The thing is all those players that are going to free agency are expecting substantial raises which is why they are going to free agency. The rfa’s are also expecting raises. The reality is if even 10 teams are forced due team finances to set their team budget 10 million below last year and another ten teams or so are at cap already there is not the money available. The rfa’s because of the contracts will in all likelihood be signed as per the current agreement. Those rfa’s with arbitration rights will have a hard choice to make on wether or not to exercise their arbitration rights. I would guess that those who are wanting to go to arbitration will not be a large number because going to UFA guarantees them nothing. Some of the UFA’s may sign short term deals for the same dollar figure as the RFA was hoping to get. It will be interesting to follow.

Ryan

Ryan,

If it weren’t a contract year for 93, and we didn’t have so many holes in the top six…

AA – 93 – JP/ Benson

Would be a fun line to watch.

I don’t imagine 93 would be very appreciative of being put on babysitting duty in a contract year, but that aside.