The 2020 Draft

by Lowetide

We are not far from the 2020 draft and based on rumors we really don’t know how much of a player the Oilers will be this year at the annual selection. I have been contemplating compiling a new list, but have decided against it. Instead, I’m going to post the list again, by tens, and explain my thinking today versus the day I made the list. Changing it seems wrong, the whole idea is to complete a list before the others arrive. I do have some thoughts. They are below.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

LOWETIDE TOP 125 FOR 2020

1 L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL. NHL ready, fleet scorer who plays with an edge.
2 LC Quinton Byfield, OHL. August 2002, 6.04, 215. Big, powerful winger, excellent speed.
3 LC Tim Stutzle, DEL. Dynamic player, highlight reel offense. Tremendous skater.
4 LC Marco Rossi, OHL. Good speed, exciting, range of skills. Exceptional talent.
5 RHD Jamie Drysdale, OHL. Great speed, passing and instincts, instant offense.
6 LC Cole Perfetti, OHL. Outstanding talent, not as fast as top forwards, has tremendous skill.
7 RW Alexander Holtz, SHL. First-shot scorer with a range of skills, he’s an electric player.
8 LW Lucas Raymond, SHL. Smart player who has ridiculous skill. March 2002. Fine skater.
9 RW Jack Quinn OHL. Impressive offensive winger was a late breaker. Pure goal scorer.
10 RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL. Impressive player who is both scorer and playmaker.

The top eight is set. Jack Quinn is an older prospect at 9, played on a strong team and it may be too high a ranking. He stays. I spoke to some hockey people who aren’t as high on Mercer as my ranking suggests, but based on math and two-way ability he should be a fine NHL player.

11 RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL. Creative, great passer, great shot. Plays in tough areas.
12 LC Connor Zary, WHL. Quick, smart two-way center effective across 200 feet.
13 LD Jake Sanderson, USHL. Smart, fast two-way defenseman has complete skill set.
14 LC Anton Lundell, Liiga. Complete skill set, average speed but improving.
15 RC Seth Jarvis, WHL. Jarvis is a fantastic player, undersized and skilled. Big second half.
16 RW Noel Gunler, SHL. Has a great release and an impressive resume. Attractive option.
17 G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. Unusual style. June 2002, has a .923 VHL save percentage.
18 RC Jacob Perreault, OHL. Skates well, great shot, great numbers, excellent passer.
19 LC Jan Mysak, OHL. Skilled and is effective in all areas. Major move in second half.
20 LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL. Big defenseman has good foot speed and full skill set.

This is the Oilers wheelhouse, although my suspicion is they take Kaiden Guhle or Dylan Holloway. Gunler is slotted lower on many lists, but he’s a first-shot scorer who played in a high league.

21 LD Jérémie Poirier, QMJHL. Smart offensive defender, puck transporter.
22 RD Braden Schneider, WHL. Fine skater, physical, smart two-way defenseman.
23 LW Lukas Reichel, DEL. Mid-season riser. He has skill, speed and plays with abandon.
24 LW Rodion Amirov, KHL. Great tools. A fast train in a draft season with slow boats.
25 LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10. Big power forward. Strong skater, nice range of skills.
26 LC Ridly Greig, WHL. Smart offensive with good instincts, August 2002. Agitator.
27 RC Tyson Foerster, OHL. Great offensive weapon, quick release and accurate.
28 LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center projects as a playmaker. Injury a worry.
29 RHD Justin Barron, QMJHL. Mobile blue can defend. Lacks top-end offensive ability.
30 LW John-Jason Peterka, DEL. A speedy winger with skill, survived in a men’s league.

I think there’s a chance Edmonton chooses a name from this group at No. 14 overall. Dylan Holloway has been connected to the Oilers by Corey Pronman, and Reichel, Greig and a now healthy Lapierre may receive consideration. I’m confident in saying this: If Edmonton picks No. 14, it’ll be one of the first 30 names on my list. There’s a gap here, right at No. 30.

31 LW Martin Chromiak, OHL. One of the most skilled players in the draft.
32 LW Brendan Brisson, USHL. Undersized speedster spiked late. Big riser.
33 LD William Wallinder, Superelite. Big (6.04, 195) 2-way defenseman with good speed.
34 LW Jake Neighbours WHL He’s skilled, gritty and plays a strong two-way game.
35 RW Zion Nybeck, SuperElite. Undersized playmaker, great passer. Impressive speed.
36 RC Jean-Luc Foudy, OHL. Speedy center plus skill, mediocre season.
37 LD Emil Andrae, SuperElite. Fast defenseman with offensive potential. Plus passer.
38 LC Ty Smilanic, USHL. Lean center, plus skater and pure scorer. Had mono.
39 LC Vasili Ponomaryov, QMJHL. Great hands and good speed, he’s a little under the radar
40 RW Ozzy Wiesblatt, WHL. Undersized winger is aggressive, fast and skilled.

The one player I would move up more than five spots on this list is Ponomaryov. He might be one of the best value picks in the draft when all is said and done. I like Neighbours, too, he is a fine prospect.

41 RW Sam Colangelo, USHL. Big power winger with skill, scored 28 goals in 44 games.
42 RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. Skill winger, great passer, plays in all disciplines.
43 RD Helge Grans, SHL. Solid two-way defenseman with good size and speed.
44 RW Connor McClennon, WHL. Numbers are solid to excellent. Undersized, range of skills.
45 RC Jack Finley, WHL. An August 2002 and a big pivot, he plays a fairly complete game.
46 RW Kasper Simontaival, Liiga. Unusual skating style but he’s quick and has high-end skill.
47 RC Justin Sourdif, WHL. Two-way winger gained notice at the Hlinka, solid season.
48 LW Veeti Miettinen, Jr Liiga. Undersized winger, fills the net with pucks.
49 RW Pavel Novak, WHL. Speedster with skill, he’s a scorer.
50 LW Sean Farrell, USHL. A good skater with plus skills, spiked offensively.

Some nice names here, Edmonton doesn’t have a second round selection. All of these players have promise but the offensive outer marker is lower. If I had a pick in this range, it would go to Novak. If I re-ranked, he would be higher. Jack Finley is also fascinating.

51 LW Daniel Torgersson, SuperElite. He has size and good speed.
52 LC Thomas Bordeleau, USHL. Owns a great shot and is highly skilled with the puck.
53 RC Tyler Tullio, OHL. Small playmaking pivot. Good passer, great shot.
54 RW Ryan Francis, QMJHL. Playmaking winger who plays a smart game.
55 RC Theodor Niederbach, SuperElite. Skill center is a late breaker this draft.
56 LW Carter Savoie AJHL. Small, fleet skill winger delivered 99 points in 54 games.
57 LD Ryan O’Rourke, OHL. Good size (6.02, 181) projects as a top-four defenseman.
58 LW Brett Berard, USHL. Small skill winger with good hands.
59 RW Daniil Gushchin, USHL. Small, speedy playmaking forward. Good numbers.
60 LW Oskar Magnusson, SuperElite. Smaller winger good speed and two-way acumen.

This is the group who play in good leagues, deliver solid offense but have size or speed issues that keep them from pushing into the first round or early second round. A couple of USHL players who are ranked lower here than elsewhere, I’m still not convinced we have the USHL players surrounded in terms of how much offense they’ll bring based on junior numbers. I’m betting the under on a player like Bordeleau by placing him here.

61 RC Jaromir Pytlik, OHL. He’s a fine skater and has two-way skills.
62 RD William Villeneuve, QMJHL. Tall, thin two-way blue spiked offensively.
63 LW Owen Pederson, WHL. Pederson scored 28 goals in 61 games.
64 LC Marat Khusnutdinov, MHL. Small (5.09, 165) two-way center with great wheels.
65 LW Will Cuylle, OHL. Has a great shot, plus size and skill. Smart winger.
66 LD Lukas Cormier, QMJHL. Undersized skill defender with good speed and skill.
67 RD Michael Benning, AJHL. Impressive skills (fine skater, excellent passer).
68 RW Brandon Coe, OHL. Power forward scored 25 goals in the OHL this season.
69 LC Roni Hirvonen, Liiga. Undersized two-way playmaker can play center or wing.
70 LW Luke Tuch, USHL. Alex Tuch’s brother, he plays a similar style with less offense.

As is the case with the USHL, I have tended to slow play the MHL totals. It’s a league that grows in quality annually and Khusnutdinov is a worthy pick, but likely to go higher in the actual draft than my ranking suggests.

71 RC Tristan Robins, WHL. Impressive numbers, he is very skilled.
72 LD Yan Kuznetsov NCAA. He’s 6.03, 201, 18 and regarded as a solid defender.
73 LC Antonio Stranges, OHL Terrific speed and skill, disappointing season.
74 RW Alexander Pashin, MHL. Small winger with impressive skill can score and pass.
75 RW Dylan Peterson, USHL. Big W with skill/speed, shy offensively this season.
76 RD Topi Niemela, Liiga. Niemela skates well, playing in Liiga. Some chaos.
77 LD Shakir Mukhamadullin, KHL. He’s 6.04, 178 and raw. Good speed, talent.
78 LW Roby Jarventie, Mestis. He’s an August 2002 and a nice size and speed combination.
79 LD Eemil Viro Sm-Liiga. Small, fast offensive defender, no dominant skill.
80 G Calle Clang, SHL. Good size, a .913 SP and stellar work at the Hlinka.

Robins is much higher on some lists, he’s a November 2001 and his numbers are impressive but not all-world. Towers over teammates in scoring, leaving me to wonder how much he played. I’m content placing him here. He is a legit prospect and the Oilers could use its third-round pick on him. I also like Jarventie but the league (Mestis) is a vague one from here. He may go higher.

81 LW Kyle Crnkovic, WHL. Small (5.07) doubled his point total season over season.
82 LC Elliot Ekmark, SuperElite. High skill, elusive, great speed, undersized.
83 RW Wiljami Myllylä, Jr Sm-Liiga. Speed demon, gaudy scoring numbers for days.
84 LC Theo Rochette, QMJHL. Undersized two-way center, intriguing offense.
85 RD Luke Prokop, WHL. A giant (6.04, 218) able to close gaps and suppress offense.
86 LD Tyler Kleven, USHL. A big shutdown defenseman (6.04, 201) with good speed.
87 G Sam Hlavaj, QMJHL. Boasts a .915 save percentage and stands 6.04, 218.
88 G Nico Daws, OHL. .924 save percentage represents a big performance spike.
89 LC Daniel Ljungman, SuperElite. Emerged at the Hlinka Gretzky. Great release.
90 G Joel Blomquist, Jr Liiga. Strong numbers (.929), good glove.

We’re reaching the end of the third round and there are fewer skill forwards, that means checkers, shutdown defender and goaltenders begin to roam the earth. I’m a fan of Daws, although a couple of overage forwards I’ve ranked below him would move up on a re-listing.

91 LC Cameron Berg, USHL. Good speed and skill.
92 G Dylan Garand, WHL. Eye popping SP (.921) for June 2002, but he’s only 6.0.
93 RC Zayde Wisdom, OHL. Pure scorer, strong season, wheels are the concern.
94 LW Emil Heineman, SHL. Older prospect, good size and speed.
95 LD Daemon Hunt, WHL. Will earn his money as a shutdown defenseman.
96 LW Pavel Gogolev, OHL. Now 20, he is fast and has a great shot.
97 LC Juuso Mäenpää, Jr Liiga. Very small but highly skilled playmaker.
98 LW Maxim Groshev, KHL. Skilled and determined with the puck on his stick.
99 RD Kasper Puutio, WHL. Good Hlinka and then a strong late push after being dealt.
100 LW Cross Hanas, WHL. Speedy winger scored 22 goals in Portland.

There are several players listed from here on who won’t be drafted but these are talented players. I especially like Gogolev and Hanas.

101 LC Evan Vierling OHL. Playmaking center spiked late. Excellent passer.
102 LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, OHL. Impressive season for Feb. 2001, under the radar skill W.
103 RD Alex Cotton, WHL. Big defenseman with a great shot, overager.
104 LD Anton Johannesson, SuperElite. Small puck mover is a wizard, could be a steal.
105 RD Billy Constantinou, OHL. Chaos blue made my list last year, worth a late flier.
106 G Brett Brochu, OHL. Under the radar goalie who delivered a .919 SP as a rookie.
107 RC Josh Pillar, WHL. Fast player, spiked offensively, could be underrated here.
108 LW Blake Biondi, USHS. High skill, great speed.
109 RC Colby Ambrosio, USHL. Speedster, very skilled, I love his resume. He’s a bullet.
110 LW James Hardie, OHL. Volume shooter, 34 goals, one dimensional.
111 RD Thimo Nickl, QMJHL. Strong skater, two-way blue, December 2001.
112 RD Eamon Powell, USHL. Impressive skater can move the puck effectively
113 LD Donovan Sebrango, OHL. Two-way defender, excellent skater.
114 LD Dave Ma, USHL. Tremendous skater and very creative.
115 LW Rory Kerins, OHL. 30 goals for an April 2002 is worth drafting.
116 LD Mitch Miller, USHL. Fine skater, has two-way skills.
117 RW Oliver Suni, OHL. Strong winger with range of skills.
118 G Devon Levi, CCHL. Impressive .941 SP.
119 LC Michal Gut, WHL. Skill center, average speed, August 2002.
120 LW Eric Juhlin, SuperElite. Good shot, solid (13 goals in 36 games) at even strength.
121 RD Ian Moore, USHS. Massachusetts offensive defenseman.
122 LW Maxim Beryozkin, MHL. Size, speed, skill, shot. Average speed is the worry.
123 LHD Alexander Nikishin, KHL.
Good skater, plus shot, he’s a throwback who hits to hurt.
124 G Drew Commesso, USHL. Good size, thrived wherever he played in 2019-20.
125 RD Ethan Edwards, Spruce Grove, AJHL. Impressive speed and skill puck mover.

Some good names here, some of them will go much higher than my ranking and some won’t be drafted at all. The Oilers often pick several names from my list. Last year, Broberg (who I ranked No. 16 and was chosen No. 8), Lavoie (who I ranked No. 26) went No. 38 to Edmonton. I’d expect one or two Oilers to be on this list.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big day on the Lowdown, we talk trades and the draft as it pertains to the Oilers. Frank Seravalli from TSN will stop by and talk about the playoffs and the trade board, plus these Arizona rumours. Geoff Ullrich from Draft Kings will talk NFL Week 2. May talk some U.S. Open, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that sports knowledge of yours. We’re at $600! Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word (I’ll give it to you at about 10:12 on TSN1260), then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer.

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wintoon

With no hockey tonight, I have been watching the Blue Jays. Does a bigger, more over hyped group of dumb baseball players exist anywhere in the universe. They have repeatedly made mental mistakes that would not expect of high school players or slow pitch players. Chief among them is Guerrero who looks more like a sumo wrestler than a pro ball player. They are so frustrating to watch.

OriginalPouzar

Jake Virtanan is an RFA who seems to be falling out of favor in Vancouver (potentially) and they may be worried about a material raise in arbitration given he has scored goals. Rumblings of a potential internal cap on the coast as well.

megahurts

A brief thread: 1/7

Benign Bone

€√¥£€^$: I forgot to mention a big red flag for me is his lack of minor hockey production PRE-QUAL.Are his current sts ts just a byproduct of his superior size and strength vs boys.Skill is extremely important as you move up to the next level, remember that NHL 4th lines are sprinkled with 1st rounders.

I 100% agree that represents a concern.

Benign Bone

€√¥£€^$,

Fair points. I’d counter by saying Smith spent his draft year as an 18 year old, had already filled into his frame a fair deal iirc, and he posted slightly worse raw numbers than Rempe did during his 17-year old season. They also spent a 2nd on Smith doesn’t map onto a potential late round flier on Rempe. His being a RC also helps his case, in my opinion.

€√¥£€^$

€√¥£€^$,

Pre-WHL, not PRE-QUAL

€√¥£€^$

€√¥£€^$: I was doing a deep dive into the draft in April & May and I put him on .my list of 350, I think I listed him at279.

Big players are in tough.I doubt he gets drafted this year, but if he puts up improved numbers + 7 more picks in the next draft, maybe he gets selected by Seattle, who should know him best.

Size is always intriguing, but tall trees are a rarity in the NHL for a reason.Another reason why Jack Findley is so intriguing to me, plus the fact that the number of legit prospect forwards 6’3″ or taller in this entire draft is less than 20.

The most recent cautionary tale I can think of for a drafting team picking an actual giant is here:

https://dobberprospects.com/player/hunter-smith/

I forgot to mention a big red flag for me is his lack of minor hockey production PRE-QUAL. Are his current sts ts just a byproduct of his superior size and strength vs boys. Skill is extremely important as you move up to the next level, remember that NHL 4th lines are sprinkled with 1st rounders.

€√¥£€^$

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Side note: anyone have any viewings or insights on one Matthew Rempe out of the Seattle Thunderbirds? 6’8, 206lbs June 2002 RC. Nothing absurd about his numbers, but 31 points in 47 games as a late birthday guy who recently hit a MAJOR growth spurt strikes me as an interesting late round flier candidate.

I was doing a deep dive into the draft in April & May and I put him on .my list of 350, I think I listed him at 279.

Big players are in tough. I doubt he gets drafted this year, but if he puts up improved numbers + 7 more picks in the next draft, maybe he gets selected by Seattle, who should know him best.

Size is always intriguing, but tall trees are a rarity in the NHL for a reason. Another reason why Jack Findley is so intriguing to me, plus the fact that the number of legit prospect forwards 6’3″ or taller in this entire draft is less than 20.

The most recent cautionary tale I can think of for a drafting team picking an actual giant is here:

https://dobberprospects.com/player/hunter-smith/

jp

YKOil: Cannot really disagree with that line of reasoning. It is what I would do were I running AZ.

As originally rumoured: OEL and Grabner for Nurse, Neal, 2021 1st and prospect(Lagesson)

– becomes, with a buy-out of Neal –

Net Cap down $8+ million or so, Salary down roughly the same (or more), 2021 EDM 1st, 2021 PIT 1st, Lagesson and VERY good prospect from TO (or Engvall and a lesser prospect)

That is a winner, winner chicken dinner trade for AZ at that point. If they can unload one of Kessell, Stepan, Goligoski, Raanta, or Hjalmarrson before the draft AND then dump two or three of what was left behind at the next trade deadline… well, not a bad rebuild year really.

Good luck to AZ at that point.

Remember a year ago when a lot of smart people were expecting the Coyotes to challenge for the division and be a team to be reckoned with?

Gerta Rauss

BONE207: Dallas or Tampa?

Tough to bet against Tampa at this point

Stamkos was on the ice (in street clothes) during the trophy presentation, if he can play during the final…man…that team is stacked

YKOil

pts2pndr: They would in all likelihood take Nurse in a heartbeat. Not necessarily to keep him but to move him to a team like Toronto for a first round draft choice and a prospect. They might very well ask for one of Edmonton’s young prospect D such as Lagesson in the deal. Nurse is easily moved for a first round draft choice so if Arizona could acquire Nurse a first round draft choice in 21 and a prospect for OEL. Then move nurse for a first round draft choice they could ostensibly get two first round draft choices and a prospect for OEL. Even if they had to take Neal in the deal or Russel they would still save money and pick up two first round draft choices. The above deal is just one of many options if they decide to tear it all down for a rebuild.

Cannot really disagree with that line of reasoning. It is what I would do were I running AZ.

As originally rumoured: OEL and Grabner for Nurse, Neal, 2021 1st and prospect (Lagesson)

– becomes, with a buy-out of Neal –

Net Cap down $8+ million or so, Salary down roughly the same (or more), 2021 EDM 1st, 2021 PIT 1st, Lagesson and VERY good prospect from TO (or Engvall and a lesser prospect)

That is a winner, winner chicken dinner trade for AZ at that point. If they can unload one of Kessell, Stepan, Goligoski, Raanta, or Hjalmarrson before the draft AND then dump two or three of what was left behind at the next trade deadline… well, not a bad rebuild year really.

Good luck to AZ at that point.

godot10

Harpers Hair:
Katie Strang (@KatieJStrang) Tweeted:
More concerning financial news for Arizona Coyotes: Team still has an outstanding balance that has yet to be paid with ASM Global, which operates and manages Gila River Arena. Balance for 2019-20 season, due on June 30, has yet to be paid.

It is called negotiating for a rent reduction during a pandemic. The Coyotes, in this case, have the leverage.

Harpers Hair

Katie Strang (@KatieJStrang) Tweeted:
More concerning financial news for Arizona Coyotes: Team still has an outstanding balance that has yet to be paid with ASM Global, which operates and manages Gila River Arena. Balance for 2019-20 season, due on June 30, has yet to be paid.

BONE207

Gerta Rauss:
There you go – Lightning win in OT and move onto the final

Dallas or Tampa?
And why do the eastern teams touch that trophy?

Gerta Rauss

There you go – Lightning win in OT and move onto the final

pts2pndr

Lowetide: That was a terrible pick. Just absolutely crazy.

The ultimate walk about draft wise ever in my opinion.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I don’t imagine that Arizona would want Nurse in the OEL trade, they would dig in for Klefbom – cheaper for longer.

What level of prospect are you throwing in?

I would love the increase on the current team that Klef to OEL brings but I don’t think:

OEL >>> Klef + prospect + $4M in useable cap space.

As far as Neal for Grabner, Neal is owned over $17M of real money over the next 3 years.Can’t see that Yotes taking that on, even for a 1st – I also wouldn’t trade a 1st rounder in 2021 to get rid of the last two years of Neal’s deal.

They would in all likelihood take Nurse in a heartbeat. Not necessarily to keep him but to move him to a team like Toronto for a first round draft choice and a prospect. They might very well ask for one of Edmonton’s young prospect D such as Lagesson in the deal. Nurse is easily moved for a first round draft choice so if Arizona could acquire Nurse a first round draft choice in 21 and a prospect for OEL. Then move nurse for a first round draft choice they could ostensibly get two first round draft choices and a prospect for OEL. Even if they had to take Neal in the deal or Russel they would still save money and pick up two first round draft choices. The above deal is just one of many options if they decide to tear it all down for a rebuild.

Woogie63

If the young man draft number 14 this year, takes four years to develop, there might only be 3 current Oilers on that team. Only 97, 29 and 44 are signed until 2024.

Take the best available player.

OriginalPouzar

oilersfan:
How do you know how much Katz made in the stock market?

I wonder if Arizona would trade Kessel for K Russel?

Why would the Oilers though – $6.8M for 2 years.

Many don’t want to take the $3M, one year risk that AA’s off-year continues. What if Kessel doesn’t recover?

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Someone is forgetting the Jesse Niinimaki years…… (No. 50 on the Euro list iirc)

He had a solid career in Liiga.

Not to mention some one-offs in the KHL, the SHL, Belarus and Italy – also connected to the Nikko Icebucks of the Asian League…..

OriginalPouzar

Oilpower:
I would be all over the OEL trade. I look at it like this. OEL for nurse and a prospect. This gets Edmonton a top pairing d and should look okay for the next 5 years. Then Neal and the 2021 1st for grabner, that first isn’t going to help for 5 years anyhow. It a cap wash this year but gets Edmonton some room to maneuver next off season while taking away the uncertainty of nurses next contract. I think Edmonton wins that trade for the first 5 years, and that’s where the focus needs to be. There will be time to restock picks in the future as the young d men push up the depth chart.

I don’t imagine that Arizona would want Nurse in the OEL trade, they would dig in for Klefbom – cheaper for longer.

What level of prospect are you throwing in?

I would love the increase on the current team that Klef to OEL brings but I don’t think:

OEL >>> Klef + prospect + $4M in useable cap space.

As far as Neal for Grabner, Neal is owned over $17M of real money over the next 3 years. Can’t see that Yotes taking that on, even for a 1st – I also wouldn’t trade a 1st rounder in 2021 to get rid of the last two years of Neal’s deal.

OriginalPouzar

Klima’s_Bucket:
If Arizona is cutting salary, could you pry Kessel out of there and send them James Neal’s bad money the other way…

With Kessel’s signing bonus already paid for this year, he’s owned $1M, a portion of which will be paid by his former team.

Not to mention the third year on Neal’s contract.

OriginalPouzar

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: AA for Tierney strikes me as a move that could work for both parties involved.

That seems like a no-brainer for the Oilers – the arb risk is still there for a higher than $3M contract (and likely a bigger risk than with AA).

I did notice that he played less against elites (30%) than either of the other two tiers and was 6-19 in goals – ouch!

OriginalPouzar

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Ribs,

I think he wanted to stay in Minnesota and put contenders on his no-trade list in hopes that no one that wasn’t contending would trade for him.

LeBrun stated with certainty today that Buffalo wasn’t on his no trade list because he didn’t think they’d be looking to acquire him. He isn’t (or wasn’t) happy with the trade but it doesn’t sound like he’ll retire instead of reporting (as some have speculated).

OriginalPouzar

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
digger50,

While there’s certainly cause to be skeptical of the merits of an OEL acquisition, I think I’m receptive to the idea if only for the chance that OEL reverts to #1 form under Tippett ala Weber in Montreal. This is likely the best opportunity the Oilers have to break the cycle of never having a #1 Dman and the potential knock-on effects of such an addition (mentorship, bumping others down the roster, etc) are as much a factor for me as the level of play he could bring.

Of course, the cap difference between him and whoever is sent out to make the cap work is between 2.65mil and 4.25mil in an offseason where we need every cent… but opportunities of this nature rarely arise. It’s certainly a move that could make or break the Holland era.

I also wanna take this opportunity to remind that a Russell for Goligoski trade (2.5mil is dollar savings for ARI) could make a Nurse or Klefbom trade FAR more palatable while both negating the risk of losing Jones to expansion and ensuring there’s a buffer between him and minutes that are too hard for him.

I agree that the “knock-down effect” is material – having players play roles, minutes and comp appropriate for their abilities is important.

With that said, I don’t think an OEL acquisition would create that. It would provide the appropriate 1LD, which the org hasn’t had since Pronger, but its likely Klef is moved in the trade, OEL simply replaces Klef as 1LD and Nurse stays as 2LD and Jones as 3LD, for example.

Swapping Nurse or Klef for OEL straight up, in isolation, makes this team better but the real question is if OEL makes this team better than Klef plus a $4M player?

That’s without even taking in to account likely regression from OEL over the term of his contract.

I can’t get on board with giving up more than Klef straight across for OEL – don’t get me wrong, OEL is better but not better than Klef and $4M in savings.

The NHL is not just about trading players, its about trading contracts just as much.

OriginalPouzar

digger50:
I think I understand where the Oilers are going this off season.

Holland and Tippett have had a year to assess the line up and the deficiencies. Its true they likely see the same roster holes that we see from the stands, the goalie, third line center etc. But we have missed the biggest need as they see it.

Its been along time on this blog where the discussion was about the importance of intangibles such as leadership, heart, grit, but this is where I believe Holland is going.

They see the same things past coaches and GMs have identified. For years the Oilers have had emerging young talent with no or few skilled veterans to lead them. I loved the likes of Matt Hendricks but its hard to lead from the back. Lucic could see the problem but did not have the qualities to turn it around. They are looking for solid veteran professionals who can lead the way.

This is why they like Neal and you can count on him staying. They liked Gagner, they like Smith, they like Kris Russel.

The biggest hole identified is how do they mold two of the best talents in the league? How do you motivate a player like Kassian? How does Nurse grow into leadership? Why did they lose to Chicago? Why such inconsistent league play?

Holland obliviously can see even more youth coming, particularly on defense. Bringing in Eckman-Larsson to lead them is very appealing.

While he is looking at certain positions, he is looking harder at finding a 30 year old leader.

Dallas will reinforce this position with its veteran talent success this year. Third line center, thinklittle Joe.

I am now doubting that Holland has any intention of re-introducing Jessie P to the dressing room. I believe he will avoid that and he will swap Jessie for a Borgstrom type player, at the earliest opportunity and that will be the only youth he brings in from the outside.

Food for thought.

I do agree with much of what is posted here – and thank you for taking the time to type out your thoughts.

For years on end (seemingly) the “leaders” of the team have either been older, regressing, non-material players (Hendricks, Ference, etc.) and young top end players still growing in the league (Hall, McDavid, etc.).

What this team has lacked is leaders that are material roster players in their developed prime years, the 26-30 year old players that are veterans but still material roster players.

We are getting to the point where this is coming – Nugent-Hopkins, Klefbom, etc. are going to be core players in their prime years – leaders on the team in material roles on the ice that support that still developing leadership group (McDavid, Drai, Nurse).

nelson88

Harpers Hair: I would think he has to walk on at least one of them.

Does he gamble that Bouchard and/or Benning can fill those holes?

In Vancouver, Virtanen and Stetcher are in almost identical situations at the same price points.

I expect Benning will walk away from both but may circle back and see if can sign at least one of them at a reduced number.

Teams with cap space may get some real bargains here.

For example, Buffalo has only 4 forwards under contract so, if they are patient and smart, they may be able to pick up some nice young players for a song.

Yup. If the Sabres owners would spend some money and stop meddling that team could make significant gains next year. Get a top notch goalie and some bargain talent and I’ll be willing to bet they are better than the leafs next year

godot10

Harpers Hair:

For example, Buffalo has only 4 forwards under contract so, if they are patient and smart, they may be able to pick up some nice young players for a song.

Taylor Hall, Eichel, Reinhart
Skinner, Staal, Cozens

Kinger_Oil.redux

Elgin R:
As the playoffs showed (again!), the most important position is Goalie.

– Meh: that goalies matter the most in playoffs is becasue they let in the goals

– Khudobin has been playing great, but you don’t plan for that.

– Bennington who is awesome, sucked, and you don’t plan for that

– Bobs sucked, and gets paid sick

– Sure goalies matter, but there is no way of planning or predicting who they are untill afterwards. You have to be a good team, and then the goalie ends up being good in hindsight

Harpers Hair

Harpers Hair: I would think he has to walk on at least one of them.

Does he gamble that Bouchard and/or Benning can fill those holes?

In Vancouver, Virtanen and Stetcher are in almost identical situations at the same price points.

I expect Benning will walk away from both but may circle back and see if can sign at least one of them at a reduced number.

Teams with cap space may get some real bargains here.

For example, Buffalo has only 4 forwards under contract so, if they are patient and smart, they may be able to pick up some nice young players for a song.

*Benson*

Harpers Hair

Lowetide: That’s the decision Holland has to make on AA and Benning. Is the $5 million he saves by walking those two players going to result in better players signing for less? If the pool is big enough, perhaps.

I would think he has to walk on at least one of them.

Does he gamble that Bouchard and/or Benning can fill those holes?

In Vancouver, Virtanen and Stetcher are in almost identical situations at the same price points.

I expect Benning will walk away from both but may circle back and see if can sign at least one of them at a reduced number.

Teams with cap space may get some real bargains here.

For example, Buffalo has only 4 forwards under contract so, if they are patient and smart, they may be able to pick up some nice young players for a song.

OriginalPouzar

As per Mark Scheig:

Key OHL Dates:

Camp opens 11/15/20
Exhibitions 11/20-11/29/20
Season starts 12/1/20
Trade deadline 2/10/21
Season ends 4/29/21
Playoffs 5/2-6/14/21
Memorial Cup 6/17-6/27/21 in Oshawa or the Soo.

2021 OHL Priority Selection 5/8/21
U-18 Draft 5/12/21

————————

Seems OHL is still trucking ahead planing on a Dec 1 start to the season.

I presume the W is doing the same.

gwdsfo

Agree w/YKOIL re: Askarov will go top-10/12. Take a look at the starting goalies still left in the race for the Cup. The Russian goalie renaissance grows and grows…

Harpers Hair

Rick Dhaliwal saying he’s been told as many as 35 RFAs won’t be qualified.

Tarkus

Corey Pronman
@coreypronman
·
4h
Top 2020 draft eligible prospect Yaroslav Askarov with a 32 save shutout vs. KHL team Spartak.

Looking less likely he’ll slip to #14.

oilersfan

How do you know how much Katz made in the stock market?

I wonder if Arizona would trade Kessel for K Russel?

dustrock

Katz actually made $400m during the pandemic (thanks, stock market!) so hopefully Oilers don’t have an internal cap. 🙂

pts2pndr

Lowetide: Someone is forgetting the Jesse Niinimaki years…… (No. 50 on the Euro list iirc)

What a lovely reminder ?

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Or, perhaps, just a one-off terrible season playing on a generationally bad team for most it?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he’s a likely 30 goal scorer, however, 4 straight seasons above 1.8 P/60 with generally middle six linemates suggests there is a player there.

Can $3M be better spent on the open market? Maybe but just likely to be maybe not.

This team has one proven top 6 LW in Nugent-Hopkins (with Neal no longer being a top 6 winger).

AA, Nygard, Benson – those are the current options.Take AA away and……

The risk is really an award higher in arb that is below the walk-away threshold.

Ultimate scenario is to trade him for 75% of the original acquisition cost (2nd and a 4th) and Benson is able to be a legit middle 6 left winger for a third of the cost.

Well, ultimate is actually signed him for 2 X $2.5M and he rebounds and Benson pops.

There would go their double A rating!?

godot10

Klima’s_Bucket:
If Arizona is cutting salary, could you pry Kessel out of there and send them James Neal’s bad money the other way…

Kessel costs Arizona less than $850K in real dollars (before escrow and deferment) for the rest of next season. Neal costs $5.75 million. (Kessel’s signing bonus, which is most of his salary has already been paid.)

Over the next two years, Kessel cost $7.65 million in actual dollars. Neal costs $11.5 million.

So no. Arizona would not trade Kessel for Neal.

OriginalPouzar

Haven’t read Seravelli’s article but on the show this morning he mentioned a few specifics with internal caps for this year:

– Arizona below $70M

– Pit between $70M-$75M

– Vancouver – no number provided but rumblings of an internal cap below the salary cap.

OriginalPouzar

LadiesloveSmid:
OriginalPouzar,

Is Athanasiou, Ryan Spooner?

Promising numbers then hits 25 and fizzles out?

I think they should keep him, even at $3M. Lots of leeway for $3.2M Kassian.

Or, perhaps, just a one-off terrible season playing on a generationally bad team for most it?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he’s a likely 30 goal scorer, however, 4 straight seasons above 1.8 P/60 with generally middle six linemates suggests there is a player there.

Can $3M be better spent on the open market? Maybe but just likely to be maybe not.

This team has one proven top 6 LW in Nugent-Hopkins (with Neal no longer being a top 6 winger).

AA, Nygard, Benson – those are the current options. Take AA away and……

The risk is really an award higher in arb that is below the walk-away threshold.

Ultimate scenario is to trade him for 75% of the original acquisition cost (2nd and a 4th) and Benson is able to be a legit middle 6 left winger for a third of the cost.

Well, ultimate is actually signed him for 2 X $2.5M and he rebounds and Benson pops.

Klima's_Bucket

Harpers Hair,

Thanks for that, I was just looking at cap hits.

Klima's_Bucket

John Chambers,

Do you know the origins of the phrase get behind?

And when was the last time you really got in front of a trade?

John Chambers

I could really get behind a Kris Russell for Michael Grabner trade.

Or Alex Chiasson for Tyler Bozak.

Harpers Hair

Klima’s_Bucket:
If Arizona is cutting salary, could you pry Kessel out of there and send them James Neal’s bad money the other way…

Kessel has only $7 million in real dollars remaining oh his contract.

Neal has more than $17 million.

Don’t think that would fly.

Woogie63

YTD 7 of the top 20 scores in the KHL are former Oilers.

Klima's_Bucket

Lowetide: Someone is forgetting the Jesse Niinimaki years…… (No. 50 on the Euro list iirc)

But does anyone remember the Marc-Antoine Pouliot years…