Higher Ground

by Lowetide
Photo by Mark Williams

At training camp, prospects are trying to stand out in a crowd. It will be extremely difficult for any AHL level players to get traction at Oilers training camp when it next arrives. There will be little time to climb the depth chart.

There MAY be quality there at camp, Bouchard and Benson and Marody and others, but the window is hours and days as opposed to weeks and weeks.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

MARODY

He started bubble camp on the ‘sixth’ line with Tyler Benson and Ryan McLeod, that trio having some impressive scrimmage moments in camp. Marody’s two training camps (2018 and 2019 fall) saw solid performances (in 5 games over those two seasons, he scored 1-2-3 at five on five in 56:04 (3.21 per 60). All of his possession stats are positive, and his regular season performance (six games in 2018-19) remains intriguing and screaming for a larger sample six. In those six games, Marody didn’t post any points, but his line won the shot share 24-16 (60 percent) with Marody’s five takeaways/no giveaways performance forever intriguing.

I don’t know if he’s fast enough to play center and don’t know if there’s room on right wing. I do know that his competition, which includes Gaetan Haas at center and Alex Chiasson on right wing, are in better spots entering a short training camp. Marody has been loaned to the Austrian League, which isn’t perfect but it’s ice and practice and games and staying in shape. No one is going to have an easy go if it during the time of Covid-19, but there are jobs to be won, careers to be forged, and opportunities for those who pursue their goals. Cooper Marody has a chance.

This is not a surprise, in my opinion. As I understand the deal, Lavoie and his agent wanted a bigger challenge than the QMJHL would offer in 2020-21, and pursued a deal with Rogle (SHL). Lavoie auditioned, the club felt they could go in another direction and we are here. You can view this as a negative, but I love the fact this young man believes in himself and his abilities. Keep reaching for the stars Raphael Lavoie, and keep on pushing for higher ground.

This is probably the top player to watch this year, we know Evan Bouchard’s ability but Broberg is an emerging player in the SHL. By minutes he appears to be on the third pair (with Jacob Andersson). He picked up a second assist later in the game, and as of mid-second period had played over 10 minutes.

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Woodguy v2.0

hunter1909:
Woodguy this Lowetide place has gone right downhill ever since you stopped regularly posting.

Death March™ was counting on a reasonable run by the Oilers while being more than slightly concerned about the snowflakes from Rexall measuring up against a 3X relatively recent cup winner.

Fortunately Darnell Nurse and his friends weren’t too worried with that outcome, or else their agents might decide to rattle the local media cages and start up another Tar and Feathers post-Sather Oilers special.

Hope you return, to help clean this town up.

Thanks Hunter.

I can see posting more often when the next regular season starts.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Reja: Washington, St. Loo and soon to be Dallas. Holland better find a couple of players with not only skill but a edge to their game.

He has them. They just need to play with it

Reja

jp: I don’t disagree the Oilers should have brought more of a physical game to the Blackhawks.

But in his whole 13 year career has anyone ever neutralized Toews with a body check?

Definitely not a younger Toews but we’re talking the play-ins Toews knows his team had zero chance to win 4 rounds and the cup. If the Oilers would have layed him out a couple of times his name would have disappeared into the night. Did you see what Dallas did to Point last night they neutered him no way Dallas could play this heavy hockey all year but ‘‘tis the season

hunter1909

Woodguy this Lowetide place has gone right downhill ever since you stopped regularly posting.

Death March™ was counting on a reasonable run by the Oilers while being more than slightly concerned about the snowflakes from Rexall measuring up against a 3X relatively recent cup winner.

Fortunately Darnell Nurse and his friends weren’t too worried with that outcome, or else their agents might decide to rattle the local media cages and start up another Tar and Feathers post-Sather Oilers special.

Hope you return, to help clean this town up.

Woodguy v2.0

Woogie63:
Woodguy you contribute a lot to Edmonton hockey conversation, thanks.Would it be possible to give a score to the current internal 3C candidates?

Haas, Marody, Nuge and maybe Khaira

Thanks for the kind words.

Haas, Marody and Khaira would rate lower than Nosek.

Nuge is the 3rd best offensive talent on the team and needs to play with one of the two above him to maximize everyone’s ability imo.

hunter1909

Reja: Washington, St. Loo and soon to be Dallas. Holland better find a couple of players with not only skill but a edge to their game.

The main thing is to not get physically intimidated and the Oilers as constituted are probably one if not the toughest team in the NHL.

Although they need players like you mention, Jordan Eberle would look good playing with either one of the Oilers top two centremen lol

Material Elvis

pts2pndr: Lundel’s skating is more of a concern for me thanHolloway’s offence as a freshman at Wisconsin. Freshmen don’t generally get a lot of ice time so without the ice time it’s hard to say. His previous AJHL MVP award plus straight ahead excellent skating, finishing checks etc says he will be a very good safe pick for some team. LT and others have alluded to the fact that there are a number of higher ranked players with just average skating. It will be, as always, very interesting to see who the Oilers pick. Guhle is a D pick that I wouldn’t touch until the third round or later due his lack of offensive IQ and his off the boards go to for getting the puck out of his end of the ice,

I’m not concerned so much with Lundell’s skating. Playing off the rush isn’t his strength; instead, he does everything that McDavid and Draisaitl don’t do. Ultra strong defensive positioning, strong on faceoffs, and some offensive ability. Horvat’s skating was the knock on him in his draft year, too. I think Lundell is close to that level, which is more than adequate. Would still prefer Jarvis but Lundell is a guy who would take on some tough minutes at 3C.

€√¥£€^$

Munny,

Yup, you are correct. I guess I was thinking about the guy lots of folks were lobbying for, lol. I haven’t looked at Holloway’s stuff in awhile.

Turcotte is a stud, he is Mr, Everything for Wisconsin.

Munny

jp:
Munny,

On Holloway, thanks. And I think LT has it right fading him about half way between #15 and #35.

Yeah no worries, you put the work in.

When I first read your piece I was 28-30.

I might have talked myself back to the other side of LT since, lol.

Tomorrow if I remember I will see if I can find out if Condredge’s Tier 2 stats can tell us anything.

jp

Munny,

On Holloway, thanks. And I think LT has it right fading him about half way between #15 and #35.

Munny

leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple times before cross checking it from behind into the boards

I have to agree with JP. This is poetry.

Munny

jp:
Munny,

Lol. Fair, and a little less beautiful.

This is Corey Perry. He probably burps and farts at the same time he slew foots.

jp

Munny,

Lol. Fair, and a little less beautiful.

Munny

jp: That would be very fitting. Almost beautiful.

It’s almost perfect, but I think we all know it would be a slew foot. 😉

jp

leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple timesbefore cross checking it from behind into the boards

That would be very fitting. Almost beautiful.

Munny

€√¥£€^$,

Turcotte. Zegras went to BU.

BONE207

leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple timesbefore cross checking it from behind into the boards

I hope the caretaker guy has put the cup down & left before this happens…?

€√¥£€^$

Munny: This is the tougher circumstances I refer to above in ranking Holloway over Pitlick.Well some of what Evilas is saying about adjustment too but more this.That was the youngest team in the conference and he was the youngest of the youngest.

And that’s a double whammy because not only are your teammates generally younger and less experienced, it means all quality of competition is better than you too. If that’s not taken into account, I’d probably rank him in the 2nd round based on production.

I may be under-valuing Evilas’s contention that the adjustment was severe.He may be right because playing in Okotoks means he never left home.He might possibly have a sheltered background,Bragg’s a different place. And every kid’s different too.That said, I’d say if you’re the kind of person who is likely to have success on the big stage, you’d get over something like that pretty quick.You’d be excited, curious, confident by default, not searching for it.

My other point though is familiarity. I am pretty sure the coaching staff knew everyone else better than Holloway and vice versa, so despite everything he was also likely eased in and got better opportunities as the season progressed to ensure greater success. Experience d college coaches know how to do this and with Caufield and Zegras on the 1st line, Holloway was likely given lesser skilled, but more experienced teammates so maybe played more of a checking due to his physical skills and reported 2-way acumen.

If the season resumes I predict he will be on the first line with Zegras and Caufield.

Munny

leadfarmer: and was on an absolute awful badgers team.

This is the tougher circumstances I refer to above in ranking Holloway over Pitlick. Well some of what Evilas is saying about adjustment too but more this. That was the youngest team in the conference and he was the youngest of the youngest.

And that’s a double whammy because not only are your teammates generally younger and less experienced, it means all quality of competition is better than you too. If that’s not taken into account, I’d probably rank him in the 2nd round based on production.

I may be under-valuing Evilas’s contention that the adjustment was severe. He may be right because playing in Okotoks means he never left home. He might possibly have a sheltered background, Bragg’s a different place. And every kid’s different too. That said, I’d say if you’re the kind of person who is likely to have success on the big stage, you’d get over something like that pretty quick. You’d be excited, curious, confident by default, not searching for it.

jp

Munny: Great game by Khudobin.Guy might get paid.

And maybe that’s a good thing (for the Oilers).

The guy is 34 and was rumoured to be looking for $3M X 3 before he backstopped a team to the finals. He’s legit, but the likelihood of getting paid more than he’s worth on his next deal has likely gone up exponentially.

jp

Reja: Oilers were playing scared chickenshit hockey they could of set the tone early with the refs that they will continue to body check the whole series. We had one of the best PK’s in the league and it’s not rocket science that if your physical with Chicago they fold the tent. All it would of took is one bone crushing hit on Toews by Kass or Nurse and the series was over.

I don’t disagree the Oilers should have brought more of a physical game to the Blackhawks.

But in his whole 13 year career has anyone ever neutralized Toews with a body check?

leadfarmer

€√¥£€^$:
€√¥£€^$,

*Sorry the last sentence meant to say only 3 players on the Team had Zero USHL experience.The 2 players aside from Holloway played a combined total of 3 games last season for Wisconsin.

Also of note, which is extremely important, Holloway didn’t get much PP time, but got more later in the year.
16/27 players were Freshmen or Sophomores, and Holloway was the youngest player on the team.

The Sophomore goalie played in 27/36 games; the 2 other goalies were Seniors, but all of their numbers were poor.

Another very important note, his dorm room was a shoe box in middle of a busy street and he worked 29 hours a day with only rocks for food….if he was lucky.

Holloway would be a great pick for a team with multiple first round picks that they can afford to swing for the fences
He’s a lot like Broberg when he was drafted
Tremendous athlete that hasn’t put it together quite yet
I’m guessing the Oil have him higher on their board then LT given his athletic ability

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar:
I hope Pavelski can find a way to gain an extra step or he may find himself playing in Europe.

He had to work incredibly hard to gain many steps to where he is now

leadfarmer

Munny:
leadfarmer,

Little Joe is in the top echelon of character guys in the NHL, no doubt about it.I will be happy for him and Sekera and Khudobin and Cogs…

But I think we probably should have someone standing by with a Taser for when Gerta sees the Covid Cup raised above Corey Perry’s head.Y’know, for the safety of everyone, lol.

I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple times before cross checking it from behind into the boards

€√¥£€^$

€√¥£€^$,

*Sorry the last sentence meant to say only 3 players on the Team had Zero USHL experience. The 2 players aside from Holloway played a combined total of 3 games last season for Wisconsin.

Also of note, which is extremely important, Holloway didn’t get much PP time, but got more later in the year.
16/27 players were Freshmen or Sophomores, and Holloway was the youngest player on the team.

The Sophomore goalie played in 27/36 games; the 2 other goalies were Seniors, but all of their numbers were poor.

Another very important note, his dorm room was a shoe box in middle of a busy street and he worked 29 hours a day with only rocks for food….if he was lucky.

leadfarmer

From what I hear from people Holloway’s athletic skills are incredibly high he’s just a bit raw and was on an absolute awful badgers team. Pretty big jump in quality of competition from one year to the next

OriginalPouzar

I hope Pavelski can find a way to gain an extra step or he may find himself playing in Europe.

Munny

leadfarmer,

Little Joe is in the top echelon of character guys in the NHL, no doubt about it. I will be happy for him and Sekera and Khudobin and Cogs…

But I think we probably should have someone standing by with a Taser for when Gerta sees the Covid Cup raised above Corey Perry’s head. Y’know, for the safety of everyone, lol.

leadfarmer

Munny: You haven’t caught a Badgers game by any chance have you?

I used to watch a lot of gopher games years ago but don’t pay much attention to NCAA hockey.
Catch an odd game here and there but haven’t watched much since leaving Minneapolis

As much as I hate Benn and Perry I would love to see Pavelski win. He’s from Plover which is 30 min away and I love hearing stories about him. Lots of such a great person, but such a bad skater

Reja

hunter1909: Eastern teams play play a softer version of the game. Boston plays the tough team out there but has zilch ability to intimidate anyone other than the 2011 Canucks because the West is so much tougher.

Oilers play like champions out east, and have for years.

Dallas should split the first 2 games and then grind the Bolts down. That is, unless the Bolts simply turn up and win with 8-3 or 7-1 type scores.

Washington, St. Loo and soon to be Dallas. Holland better find a couple of players with not only skill but a edge to their game.

€√¥£€^$

€√¥£€^$,

*Posted 2 months ago

€√¥£€^$

leadfarmer: Well he did have Turcotte as a linemate to easy the transition

As I had posted, there were 10 players, many freshmen or sophomores with USNDP experience on the Team. Holloway was 1 of only 2 Canadians, the other a senior from Manitoba had played 3 seasons in the USHL. All but 3 players, Holloway, a 25 yr old Swedish goalie who played 5 games over 4 seasons and a 21 yr old D freshman from the NAHL who played 2 games.

Holloway didn’t know a soul going in there.

Munny

leadfarmer: Well he did have Turcotte as a linemate to easy the transition

You haven’t caught a Badgers game by any chance have you?

BONE207

PS…everyone…you are awesome…?

BONE207

Woodguy v2.0:
*****WARNING SPAM*****

New Because Oilers:

“Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #5 Tomas Nosek”

https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_19.html

*****END SPAM*****

Mr. Wood…
I’m wondering if it’s been asked: These 3C rankings of yours, will they include Riley Sheahan himself? That way we could see how a low end Nosek & a high end Larrson compare. Thanks for your efforts.

leadfarmer

Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

Well he did have Turcotte as a linemate to easy the transition

€√¥£€^$

Klima’s_Bucket,

Yes, but was also playing behind Ekblad, Stralman, Wegar and giant Joshua “Tree” Brown. He used to a decent 3rd pair D. Coach must have liked someone else more. Did he get bad all of a sudden?

He played several games as a RW and 0 in the AHL, so that is something. He has played more than 400 NHL games, hasn’t seen the minors in 5 years, would be cheap, he knows the city and could even be brought in on a PTO. If he is terrible, he has Bouchard and Berglund nipping at his heels.

Not a big deal.

Munny

jp,

This is wonderful work. Exactly what was needed. Apologies to all if it has been posted before and I’ve missed it. I haven’t had much chance to follow the comments these past couple of days.

Looking at that list, I’d say I’d give him the head over Pitlick (they’re basically tied), because I think there’s a reasonable argument Holloway’s circumstances have been a bit tougher. Splits may be a question too but I think your dataset significantly narrows and limits the outcomes on Holloway. I can see him being 30-35 on many rankings.

I think PPG is the way to go. I know, shit can still be skewed up, but at least it is a for-sure number.

Slim pickings, this type of prospect. Reminds me of Swedish draft-eligible defensemen playing in the SHL, but worse. But thank you regardless, JP. Some context is way better than no context.

€√¥£€^$

Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

pts2pndr: Lundel’s skating is more of a concern for me thanHolloway’s offence as a freshman at Wisconsin. Freshmen don’t generally get a lot of ice time so without the ice time it’s hard to say. His previous AJHL MVP award plus straight ahead excellent skating, finishing checks etc says he will be a very good safe pick for some team. LT and others have alluded to the fact that there are a number of higher ranked players with just average skating. It will be, as always, very interesting to see who the Oilers pick. Guhle is a D pick that I wouldn’t touch until the third round or later due his lack of offensive IQ and his off the boards go to for getting the puck out of his end of the ice,

I

Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

Cole Caufield, an American, from Wisconsin, played 119 games with the USNDP across 3 seasons, on a Chicago rep Team in the Brick Tournament as a 9 or 10 yr old, on several State teams as a 13-15 yr old, several National teams starting at 16 yrs old. With the USNDP he also played many games vs NCAA competition.

Holloway, from Bragg Creek has played on several versions of National teams, but certainly not as experienced at minimum in living in Wisconsin as Caufield. He played parts of 3 years in the AJHL at Okotoks, 2 games, 28 games and 59 games while mostly sleeping in his own bed. As much as he was familiar with the language, he still had tons of adjustments to make. FYI, Bragg Creek, his hometown, has a population of less than 400.

Based on his results in his last 10 games, which I had posted here in some detail 2 months ago, he was playing very well, scoring well and probably getting more TOI. The team was playing again Top 10 NCAA teams, so the competition were no pushovers.

I understand the numbers, but they do not take into account real-time development. I like Seth Jarvis a lot, but I like Dylan Holloway a little bit more.

hunter1909

jtblack: I do think TB will get better as series goes but it may be too late. TB could use Stamkos. He may be rusty but he represents fresh legs

Eastern teams play play a softer version of the game. Boston plays the tough team out there but has zilch ability to intimidate anyone other than the 2011 Canucks because the West is so much tougher.

Oilers play like champions out east, and have for years.

Dallas should split the first 2 games and then grind the Bolts down. That is, unless the Bolts simply turn up and win with 8-3 or 7-1 type scores.

jtblack

Lowetide: Yes. Ordinarily, I’d say something like a quick goal by Tampa Bay early in the third changes things drastically but the truth is Dallas is physical, quick and disciplined. Tough to beat that, especially if they put in 60 minutes.

NHL is in a hurry to get out of bubble land. TB won their last series in 6 gms and IMO deserved a couple days. They got 40 hrs. There is also a B2B FRI / SAT. So minor advantage Dallas.

I do think TB will get better as series goes but it may be too late. TB could use Stamkos. He may be rusty but he represents fresh legs

jp

Munny:
I want to make it clear that I am not on Team Holloway.

But I find comments like “the Math doesn’t like him” to be largely superficial and useless.What Math?He’s in very unique circumstances. Show me honest Math that doesn’t like him and I will show the scouts the finger along with the rest of you.

Scouts love him, and if we value their judgement, then we should be looking for serious, concrete ways to disqualify their views, rather than glib shorthand lacking in real nuts and bolts.

I still haven’t caught up with the whole thread but figured this is likely still relevant: my best attempt at the “math on Holloway” (more generally the math on draft eligible freshmen in the NCAA.

———————————————————-

NCAA players were being drafted at 19 up until 2003, I believe. So starting in 2004 I looked at all the NCAA forwards (1st time draft eligible) picked in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There were 20 of them in 16 years (that’s why I included 2nd round as well).

Like Holloway, all of these guys are old for their draft year (birthdays between Sept and Dec).

So Holloway scored 35-8-9-17 0.49 points per game.

Below are all the 20 players (forwards, 1st or 2nd round, from the NCAA, since 2003).
Listing in order:
Name
Year drafted
Draft #
NCAA Points/game
Points/game of best NHL season (more than 40 GP)
NHL career games
NHL career points/game

**Players are sorted by NCAA points/game in their draft year**:

Player ——- Year Pos NCAA Best GP Total
Eichel ——– 2015 #2 1.78 1.15 354 0.95
Kessel ——- 2006 #5 1.31 1.12 1066 0.81
Schroeder — 2009 #22 1.29 XX 165 0.25
Fritsche —– 2005 #47 1.07 zero NHL games
Wilson —— 2008 #7 0.95 0.55 632 0.45
Kunin ——- 2016 #15 0.94 0.49 131 0.40
Toews ——- 2006 #3 0.93 1.02 943 0.86
Thompson – 2016 #26 0.89 0.22 107 0.20
Stafford —– 2004 #13 0.89 0.84 841 0.51
Sweatt —— 2014 #38 0.87 XXX 3 0.00
Tkachuk —- 2018 #4 0.78 0.63 142 0.63
DiGiuseppe 2012 #38 0.65 0.41 170 0.26
Nieto ——– 2011 #47 0.59 0.38 472 0.32
Pitlick ——- 2010 #31 0.50 0.34 248 0.29

Holloway — 2019 ?? 0.49 ??

Sheahan — 2010 #21 0.46 0.57 513 0.32
Bertram —- 2005 #54 0.45 zero NHL games
Poehling — 2017 #25 0.37 XXX 28 0.18
O’Brien —– 2007 #29 0.35 XXX 77 0.17
Pineault —- 2004 #46 0.28 XXX 3 0.00
Greer ——- 2015 #39 0.19 XXX 39 0.16

So we can’t project Holloway’s NHLE from this. But we can say some other things.

14 of the 20 1st time eligible NCAA players drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds scored more than Holloway.

No player who scored less than Holloway was picked before #21 (in fact no player who scored less than 0.75 points/game was picked in the top 20).

Holloway’s closest comparables are Pitlick and Sheahan. Both have scored about 0.3 points/game for their careers (that’s 25 points per 82 games). They did have NHL careers though, which isn’t a given where they were picked).

Sheahan is the only player who scored less than Holloway who has played 100 NHL games (though there are only 6 total).

Sheahan is the only player who scored less than 0.75 NCAA points/game who had even one 0.5 points/game NHL season (roughly the 2nd line scoring cutoff). That is, none of the 9 NCAA players who scored less than 0.75 point/game were ever top 6 forwards, even briefly.

6 of the 11 forwards who scored more than 0.75 points/game in the NCAA ultimately had 0.5 points/game NHL seasons. And 5 of the 11 are career 0.5 points/game NHL players. (Luke Kunin looks like he’ll add to both groups).

———————————————————-

The above math is far from perfect (sample size) but IMO it’s enough to say “the math doesn’t like Holloway”. LT fading him from concensus ~#15 to #25 seems to me a fair incorporation of the scouting reports and the (admittedly thin) math.

(also, maybe teams shouldn’t be unhappy with Ethan Moreau or Lawson Crouse as the return on a pick in the early teens)

pts2pndr

Lowetide,

Thanks LT. That makes sense.

Klima's_Bucket

€√¥£€^$: I also added Mark Pysyk for the 3rd pair with Jones.

You do know that Mark Pysyk spent the past season playing right wing in FLA?

€√¥£€^$

I don’t expect it to happen, but that OEL for Nurse rumour + the Neal for Fleury suggestion, combined with Koivu + Granlund has really captured my imagination. I doubt we see any of these players in Edmonton, but IMO this group provides the missing leadership mojo this team is apparently missing and I think it stacks up well vs the current SC Finalists.

The other things to consider is a reduction in Fleury’s workload will possibly result in improved performance, the positive influence on Jesse that MG and MK would have, Connor having capable 2-way wingers, a healthy OEL in a new environment and of course MOAR Finn’s ??

Here is the forward group, so along with Patrick Russell, I added Allan Quine. The reason for Quine is always hearing about him as being a superior option on the 4th line in Calgary while driving to and from work.

This opinion came from at least 3 different radio guys, including their play-by-play guy. My understanding is he is fast, hard on the forecheck and a good PKer. I think he might be a hidden gem.

Here is the forward group:

Granlund ($2.5 mill x 1 yr) – McD – Brown ($3.2 x 2 yrs)
Nuge-Dra-Yamo
Grabner (1 yr) – Koivu ($1.5 mill x 1 yr) – JP
Nygard – Haas – Melker Karlsson ($800K x 1)

I also added Mark Pysyk for the 3rd pair with Jones.

For those interested in how I get there, here is the link:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/367463?post_id=1775117

Munny

OriginalPouzar:
Shots are 15-1 for Tampa in the third and Khudobin has stopped that all including multiple 5-bell saves.

Shots are 20-2 since the Oleksiak goal.

Great game by Khudobin. Guy might get paid.

Munny

Lowetide: Holloway is No. 25 on my final list, Jarvis is No. 15 on my final list. You can reject what I do, and that’s fine. But it isn’t like I’ve been sneaking up on you, I’ve been doing this for years.

https://lowetide.ca/2020/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2020/

I’m not disputing your ranking. I might even rank him in the same spot.

The point is I have no idea where to rank him and I’m not sure how anyone else does. And it bothers me that I can’t spot him with any confidence.

What if we trade down and he’s still on the board? Or trade someone for a pick? Is he value at 18, 20, 22… 30? I have no freaking clue. And that’s because there’s a data vacuum on a player of this ilk. There are so few comps.

So I think framing this as “Math” is incorrect. The Math is suspicious, assuming our assuming is correct, which is also suspicious. Some boots on the ground would be handy to inform our assumptions… it wouldn’t complete the picture but it would help.

As you know, I’m the guy that first pooh-poohed how much trust and emphasis we gave Quality of Competition back in the day, and then Zone Starts too. I’m sorry I can be a contrarian dickhead and have been on many occasions, but my doubts proved correct in both cases. I’m not a Math grad or anything but I have taken five University Math courses including stats. I wouldn’t call myself an expert, not even close, but I’m not an idiot in the field either.

I think the range on drafting Holloway accurately might be as wide as 20 spots. Can make a GM awfully right or awfully wrong. It’s added risk which is why I am not Team Holloway. I said months ago that whatever the Oilers do with this pick, it cannot be a misfire. A top half of the roster player must emerge from its use.

But considering the pick may change or be added to, be real handy to be able to rank Holloway with some confidence. Be handy to know if he’s value at 14 because its part of the range of his outcomes, albeit an outlier.

I wonder if Gabe’s work on 17 yos scoring at 21, which I think was his first crack at NHLe, is still up. Might be more data on AJHLers at 17 than NCAAers. at 18.

OriginalPouzar

Shots are 15-1 for Tampa in the third and Khudobin has stopped that all including multiple 5-bell saves.

Shots are 20-2 since the Oleksiak goal.

jp

Woodguy v2.0: I fell in love with Johann Larsson

I can definitely understand that. It’s impressive what he’s done in the minutes he’s been given. Also one of the few longer term options available.

I wonder how cheap he’ll be though, some of the teams, at least, must have noticed, right?

(As an aside, I’ve kind of fallen in love with Grabner. Plays super tough minutes, kills penalties, speed to burn, can still score goals. If he could be had for Russell or even with 50% retained I think he’d be a great add as a 1LW/3LW swingman option).