We’re all waiting for Ken Holland to make his moves this fall, and now that we’re close I sense several urgent trains of thought among posters here at Lowetide and comments elsewhere. From ‘go now!’ to ‘keep your powder dry’ there’s no limit to the range or degree of passion surrounding the Oilers.
What is different, and we can’t know until we get to the other side, is Ken Holland. Not really. He arrived last spring to a clock that was running out and little in the way of cap. I thought he did a great job, wrote about it, gave him a B- and many of you thought I was too harsh in my grades.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: For Oilers prospect Tyler Benson, the past can be inspiration
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie has opted for Europe. Will others follow suit?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
Holland’s 2020
Bob Nicholson spoke to Bob Stauffer just before the weekend, and said Holland would not make huge changes but would tinker. I did not hear the interview, but have seen enough quotes on twitter to trust that the main thrust is correct. This is exactly what I wrote for The Athletic early this week, so I’m well pleased to see logic and reason have come to town.
Some of you are not pleased, preferring instead a gigantic offseason with massive improvement. I think the Oilers could do more this offseason than last because there’s a little more money and Holland could trade a LHD and have enough on the roster to compete. That’s a new wrinkle. I don’t think trading the pick makes sense, although there is some intrigue in dealing down from No. 14 overall if there’s a first-round pick and another selection in the top 75.
I’m not on board with acquiring OEL and would prefer to see Andreas Athanasiou, Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi retained. These are the kinds of talents Edmonton should be pursuing, early-to-mid 20’s with miles of track left in their game. Add picks, and use them on that long list of OHL forwards (all were 17 last year) who dominated the leaderboard in scoring last season. Here’s the list:
2020 OHL (age 17)
- Marco Rossi 56, 39-81-120 2.14
- Quinton Byfield 45, 32-50-82 1.82
- Cole Perfetti 62, 37-74-111 1.82
- Jack Quinn 62, 52-37-89 1.44
- Tyson Foerster 62, 36-44-80 1.29
- Jacob Perreault 57, 39-31-70 1.23
- Martin Chromiak 28, 11-22-33 1.18
- Jan Mysak 22, 15-10-25 1.14
- James Hardie 59, 34-29-63 1.07
- Tyler Tullio 62, 27-30-57 1.06
- Evan Vierling 43, 14-30-44 1.02
- Luke Evangelista 62, 23-38-61 0.984
- Zayde Wisdom 62, 29-30-59 0.952
- Brandon Coe 60, 25-32-57 0.950
- Rory Kerins 64, 30-29-59 0.922
- Jaromir Pytlik 56, 22-28-50 0.893
- Hayden Fowler 52, 20-22-42 0.808
- Logan Morrison 59, 23-22-45 0.763
- Austen Swankler 59, 18-27-45 0.763
- Reid Valade 52, 18-21-39 0.750
- Ethan Cardwell 63, 23-24-47 0.746
- Oliver Suni 43, 12-20-32 0.744
- Jean-Luc Foudy 59, 15-28-43 0.729
I’d add a couple of fifth-round picks and grab two stragglers from that group, that’s a damned good idea to my way of thinking.
EXPECTATIONS
I think it’s silly to suggest Holland has little to use in trade this summer, there are some nice things that should have value on the open market and he does have some extra coin compared to a year ago. That said, if the limits of his wares means Edmonton is unable to acquire OEL, then I hear music!
Edmonton’s veteran leaders are already here, their names are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson. Their names are Mikko Koskinen and James Neal and Alex Chiasson. Their names are Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Please don’t let your rage over the Chicago series send you in a bad direction. Don’t land on ‘they don’t know how to win’ or ‘they need a leader with a bunch of Stanleys like Bryan Trottier when he went to Pittsburgh’ or some other lost road. Please land on “it’s the goalie, stupid” or “they need three more players, dummy!” because man that’s a better way.
You want to see growth, real growth that has sustain? You just saw it. It’s called Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones. Next year it might be called Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod. The year after it might be called Philip Broberg, Ilya Konovalov and Raphael Lavoie. You want to build something that is going to last in this climate? You build it right, starting with the foundation. It’s there, man! Don’t go chasing big names. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. Woke up in the ditch.
Start as you mean to go.
Oil2Oilers,
Parayko costs you much more than that. Klefbom, Sammy and our 1st at the lowest.
NHL.com is reporting Draisaitl Won the Hart and Ted Lindsay award!
sorry if it’s been mentioned already.
As I have already started making wild suggestions why not continue;
Should the Oilers keep Athanasiou but convert him to a 3C? Telling him to spend the fall with a skills coach with this in mind.
https://www.nhl.com/redwings/news/notes-athanasiou-enjoys-playing-center/c-292768928
Just to be a contrarian ass, how about a swing for the fences this fall;
Colton Parayko from the Blues for Adam Larsson, Dmitir Samorukov and 2020 3d round pick. Blues gain some cap space for signing Pietrangelo.
Trade 14th overall pick and Chiasson to Ottawa for picks #28 and #52. Draft RHD Justin Baron and a volume shooting winger.
Trade Russell for a Coyote Goalie.
Walk Athanasiou and possibly Benning for walking around money to buy a 3C.
Oilers would be set on both sides of defense, now and in the future. Two legit prospects enter the system and a goalie is added as we wait Ilya Konovalov to grow 3″.
A scouting eervice that only lists his great performances and not his stinkers, even if there is perhaps only one.
OriginalPouzar,
There’s also a new franchise being added.
But we clearly don’t know. Yes, it’s entirely possible the recovery won’t be what it was after the lockout.
I was surprised that HRR only dropped by 20% in the lockout year despite 40% fewer regular season games.
Of course, the prior shutdowns of the NHL were due to internal financial matters and the current issue is due to a global pandemic shifting the global economy.
Will the incoming US TV deal be as big? Likely not.
Will corporate sponsorship be as big? Likely not.
Will fans come roaring back to buildings at the same price point? We’ll see.
I think the economic recovery will be quite a bit different that in prior years.
You said above though that the cap could be at $81.5M for 2, 3, 4, 5 years. “Effectively” flat would be a fair characterization.
It’s interesting, the shortened 12-13 season (48 games) saw the revenue go from 3.37B in 2012 to 2.63B in 2013 and back up to 3.7B in 2014. It’s steadily risen since then to 5.09B in 2018-19.
I’d guess the drop from the Covid shortened season would be roughly comparable to the 3.37 to 2.63B drop given fewer games were lost (though zero gate revenue from the playoffs). Next season will see more lost revenue obviously but it wouldn’t be surprising to see it recover back above $4.8B next by 21-22. (as you say there’s still a balance to pay, even if it goes like that).
Well, it doesn’t go higher than $82.5M until HRR gets back to $4.8B and the Escrow Balance is paid off.
There seems to be a LONG ways to go to get any sort of material increase in the cap – in particular if they are playing next year with no fans for a material portion of the year (likely not helping the Escrow Balance).
CKSA Moscow’s game also postponed as Jokerit is still in their 14 days – no Sammy for us.
Yaroslav Lokomotiv’s game postponed, again – no Konovalov for us…
I understand that. My post was mostly a joke as the two scenarios I posted were also clearly fraught with recency bias vis-a-vis Broberg’s and Konovalov’s hot starts to the year.
They do, but it’s not ES TOI or 5v5 TOI, is all TOI if I’m reading it correctly.
430 mountain today for the 30 min awards show. We find out if the PHWA and/or the players voted Leon as the best (or most valuable to the team).
I normally don’t really care much about the awards but I will be watching and I care – mainly because I want Greg Wyshynski to lose it.
NHL HRR has been over $3.3B for essentially a decade, and was $4.86B in 17-18 and $5.09B in 18-19.
Once fans are back in the stands (which I think is extremely likely by 21-22) do you really think HRR will remain below ~$4B?
Clearly a couple of years of flat cap is happening, but is it realistic to think it will remain low for 4 or 5 seasons? I may well be missing something butt that’s pretty impressive.
OriginalPouzar,
I think he likely is, if only due to the skillset he brings being more conducive to taking harder minutes. Further, given his PK numbers were good, he strikes me as a solid bet to help on special teams which has otherwise been a task forced on our already overworked top-4. Whether rightly or wrongly, Benning is an EV guy without much special teams utility since he’s pretty average across the board. Soucy brings size and reach along with (seeming) defensive prowess- rookie seasons can be deceiving, of course.
Part of why I’m keen on adding him is for the longer term outlook as well. This team has seen a recent influx of smaller puck-moving types- a move a completely support. However, I think those types (particularly Bouchard) would benefit from a steady partner in much the same way guys like Carlson, Karlsson, Letang and Heiskanen benefited from partnering with Kempny, Methot, Dumoulin and Oleksiak.
This isn’t the only way to structure pairings, but I think D with enough of an offensive bent really benefit from clearly defined in-pairing roles; gives them one less thing to consider in the heat of the game.
Fully agree too.
I think Holland will (after trading Benning) sign a #6/7 FA D ~$1M for 2 years. Covers off the Kraken and serves as Bouchard insurance for half the price.
I like Benning but the coaching staff does not.
Before he was injured he spent most of the fall playing 3RD behind two guys who had 18 total games of NHL experience. It’s easy to forget Bear was never expected to even make the team. Benning got essentially zero looks in the top 4, even during camp.
Yes, that very well could help. And things may have clicked for him this year, he had a nice season and a great playoff.
I can’t ignore his track record though. I’d be more confident that Koskinen is a true .911 SV% goalie than Korpisalo is.
That’s not to say Korpisalo isn’t, or that he’d be a bad acquisition to pair with Koskinen. I guess I was just surprised and disappointed to see how poor his results where prior to this season (seriously, 2 seasons under .900 in the 2 years before this one).
pts2pndr,
Askarov has played well for while now.
“July 2019 – At age 16, Askarov played as a starting goalie both for SKA-Varyagi in the MHL and for Russia U18. He was spectacular throughout the season, and he is arguably the best Russian goalie prospect since Andrei Vasilevsky. Askarov has posted a .921 save percentage in 31 games in the MHL, and also .948 and .916 at WJC-U17 and WJC-U18 respectively. After a great performance at the U18 Worlds, he is a potential lottery pick for the 2020 NHL Draft.”
source: https://dobberprospects.com/player/yaroslav-askarov/
I’m sure Pick224 has the TOI included if you scroll far to the right side. It’ll be around the on and off-ice goal shares.
OriginalPouzar,
Much of what you’re saying speaks to broadly agreeing with my point on overpaying for AAV but not term.
I’d rather try to fit in a Haula or similar on a one year deal at say +25% AAV than even +1yr on term.
Go for it now, without compromising future competitiveness.
Perhaps that’s why I’m okay with AA at $3MM for a one or two year term. He’s in concert with his comparable cohort of RFAs on both a production and salary basis.
Recency Bias was a comment on the Russian goal tender getting drafted possibly in the top 5-10. Due his hot start I believe his stock will have gone up due recency bias. This year player movement is impossible to predict due a number of factors brought on by the pandemic. The economic reality may be cancellation of 20/21 season complete with a reset with the next regular season being 21/22 starting in just a little over one year.
They don’t give out participation ribbons.
There are a few elite teams…a bunch of aspirants and a few teams that are truly dreadful.
The difference in points percentage between 12th and 20th was .022
Getting to the middle in a league with tremendous parity is relatively easy unless you make some truly stupid mistakes.
Becoming an elite team is what separates the men from the boys in roster and cap construction.
Arguing that McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Larsson and Nurse aren’t “in their primes” is a huge stretch but even if there is marginal improvement, the roster remains terribly unbalanced with little flexibility to make any significant changes.
There was some chatter about Florida shedding Salary. If Ekblad is available, he would be the guy to pursue over OEL. Even if we have to pay more to get him. He is a true 1A defenseman. One of the few possible available players worth an overpay
How is a team that finished 2nd in its division and top 10 in the NHL in points (12th in P%), with its top 2 forwards not even in their primes and their top 3 d-men not in their primes (2 approaching) miles from being competitive?
I agree with your second sentence – I wouldn’t mind Mikko Koivu on the Oilers but, in no way, am I stretching the contract terms to get him – he’s turning 38.
I don’t think the cap situation is dire due to MSM, I think its dire because I’ve determined that on my own – I know what he have, what I think we need and how much space there is.
I also know that the Yamamoto will need a contract after this year, Bear won’t be under $2M for long, Nuge will need a bump after next season – Jones and Nurse then come due, etc., etc.
Bad cap falls away but raises are going to be required and the cap isn’t going up for at least a couple years and maybe closer to 5 years.
At some point (likely next off-season), incumbents will need to be moved for the cheap youngsters to come in but, while there will be more room to manoeuvre in the coming years, I don’t see them being flush for a long long time.
Yes, i listened to Burkie’s spot with Stauff this past week – as I said, money, location and winning – winning was one of three factors I would put ahead of the “McDavid lure”, to the extent such a thing exists.
godot10,
First point is fair, conceded.
To the second point, he’s a right shot RHD.
My main hope was he could fill in on the second pair being polished by Nurse or Klefbom until Bouchard usurps Benning. Then Holzer would be a nice safety blanket for a young Lagesson or Jones on the third pair. It’s optimistic, I know.
It’s entirely likely there is someone else to be found for the role. Just turning over stones here.
Holzer has never played more than 50 games in a season. Anywhere. So he is a tweener #7D Rickibox D. Yeah, he can fill in in a pinch when injuries hit on the 3rd pairing if the other guy can move the puck.
In Toronto, the left side was Rielly, Gardiner, and Phaneuf.
In Anaheim, the left side is Lindholm, Fowler, Theodore, or other young mobile puck handling D.
Not the issue.
McDavid consumes a lot of oxygen and a huge amount of cap space which makes roster construction difficult.
A player who wants to win would look at the roster and assess that there is less money for him and the team is many miles way from being competitive.
Given the setting of Buffalo on the Prairies and high Canadian tax rates would drive any free agent to greener pastures.
What I posted of Burkie’s recent interview suggests you’re mistaken.
godot10,
His deployment against elites in TOR, ANA and NSH was between 25-30% in three seasons. NSH and ANA have amongst the deepest of d-corps in the league.
It’s more of a thought exercise to find a temporary bargain fit than a set notion of roster construction. I would have him signed as a player for Bouchard to usurp and make Benning dispensable than to rely on for success.
That makes a lot of sense, in some circles.
“You tell my agent, no freaking way I’m going to play with that asshole McDavid”
In a salary cap universe this is not a huge problem.
You draft and develop players, or you can also trade for them. If a team has its act together(a laughable concept for the 1.5 Decades of Darkness I know) traded for players most often will be happy to stay on the team.
UFA’s are like trying to win with nitro in car racing. Mostly a big bang and nothing after.
Obviously I could be wrong here…
OriginalPouzar,
Don’t disagree.
Except the cap room probably isn’t as dire as the MSM make it out to be, with some nimble roster construction. From what I can tell from using my own common sense with the available roster tools online.
I’d rather slightly overpay a Haula or J. Larsson than an aged Koivu or Soderberg. Prefer AAV to term in both cases.
You’re assuming the McDavid factor is a positive..
The reverse may be true.
Holzer has never been a top 4D option anywhere that he has ever played in the NHL.
If one is planning for him to be a top 4D, you can right off the playoffs next year.
OriginalPouzar,
Brian Burke just said last week on Bob’s Thursday show that every time he’s been A/GM on a Canadian team if a player has a seven-team NTC every Canadian team is on it due to one factor or another — from climate to lifestyle to taxes. He went on to say that bidding for free agents you’d have to overpay based on the aforementioned factors to compete with US market teams.
Winning isn’t everything. It would seem the short tenure of an NHL career has players considering other variables than *just winning.
Its not NHL20 but the Oilers have limited (at best) cap room and the expectation is for many UFAs to get squeezed and for there to be bargains out there.
Koivu was 11th among Wild forwards in TOI/G at 5 on 5 and produced as 0.94 P/60.
If he’s not willing to sign for one year at a fairly nominal rate (and I don’t expect he will), I would definitely not be in favor of digging on on a guy that is really likely more suited to 4C at this time.
Hey bud
I didn’t say anything about term either.
Maybe it is hard to keep track of all your posts but don’t put words
In people’s mouths. Not cool.
Adam Larsson isn’t worth a Hart Trophy winning winger in any universe except the DoD one.
Since when have you been appointed sheriff of who decides everything?
At least you’re taking the time to read Woodguy’s writing/analysis, so that’s something lol
100%
During the regular season.
All strengths toi/g.
Benning. 13:13 which was 8th not including Green.
Also, only Lagesson and Manning had a higher rate of on the fly starts.
Play in round with an injured Larsson.
10:40.
Those are some long side burns.
For comparison, Jones played 11:52.
Though there is the Kraken issue…
Koivu has slowed down so much
Overall a terrible fit for a team that is trying to play a faster game
At most a one year stop gap for 2 mil
I’ve read WG’s piece and will continue to be very much against giving term to a player that will be 38 shortly in to the contract nor anything close to $3M – advanced metrics notwithstanding.
To the last sentence – it will never be as big a factor to the majority as: money, winning, location desirability – in my opinion.
OriginalPouzar,
Yeah, I’d prefer one year deals for anyone over 34 or so depending on the player and their history.
Koivu has been a special player for a long time, perhaps he’s worth rolling the dice on is my point.
I’d prefer a contract in the ballpark of 1x$1.75M but this isn’t NHL20 either.
godot10,
Right.
One AL is enough. And I like Larsson.
But *if say we could move him to TOR for Andersen and the VGK 2020 4th round pick, I’d do it. Then replace him in the middle of the d-corp with a guy like Bogosian or Holzer (or other).
I fear Bogosian is going to be too expensive absent salary retention by TOR (which would negate a primary incentive for them to make the trade), and Holzer might be miscast in the role. Though I doubt he’s played with as good a partner as Nurse or Klefbom for long stints, and of course life is easier when you’re passing up to Connor or Leon.
FWIW, I really noticed Holzer when he was playing against us with NSH so that neither invalidates nor refutes your turd polishing angle. Maybe he could be polished by our guys, is the gist.
Holland should sign Mikko And promise JP he will staple him on Mikkos wing all season